Top is in

[dragoncar]

You don’t expect us to swallow this tripe?

[Clean Shaven]

You don’t expect us to swallow this tripe?

What if he simmers it for a year in a stew of GOAT and bullshit?

#topisin

[UnleashHell]

I love me some goat. Especially curried.

Its a top dish

[Clean Shaven]

Everybody watch out for the Bart Simpson pattern. It's been described as the Fifth Horseman of the Apocalypse, by some. (Me.)

https://steemit-production-imageproxy-upload.s3.amazonaws.com/DQme9Wky94CRdiqyN7LE1XtKw2V5KvHhPXfUfa9SNRGBLuD

[thd7t]

Everybody watch out for the Bart Simpson pattern. It's been described as the Fifth Horseman of the Apocalypse, by some. (Me.)

https://steemit-production-imageproxy-upload.s3.amazonaws.com/DQme9Wky94CRdiqyN7LE1XtKw2V5KvHhPXfUfa9SNRGBLuD

"Many people are saying..."

[OurTown]

I love me some goat. Especially curried.

Its a top dish

I prefer jerk.  I had a Jamaican friend do up some jerk goat many years ago, yum.

[Bicycle_B]

The market is about to jerk downwards!!!  Top is in.

[swashbucklinstache]

"nisi pot" in latin means* "but the pot".



Pot the But is in.



(*means = google translate but let's not let facts get in the way of a "good" story. Facts top is in)

[dragoncar]

Everybody watch out for the Bart Simpson pattern. It's been described as the Fifth Horseman of the Apocalypse, by some. (Me.)

https://steemit-production-imageproxy-upload.s3.amazonaws.com/DQme9Wky94CRdiqyN7LE1XtKw2V5KvHhPXfUfa9SNRGBLuD

This is a Classic OngoingWave signal.  Don’t have a COW

[solon]

I'm not worthy.

[dougules]

The market is about to jerk downwards!!!  Top is in.

Yes! -10000 m/s^3

[retireatbirth]

Diamond top pattern is in. Bear approaching.

[EngineeringFI]

Everybody watch out for the Bart Simpson pattern. It's been described as the Fifth Horseman of the Apocalypse, by some. (Me.)

https://steemit-production-imageproxy-upload.s3.amazonaws.com/DQme9Wky94CRdiqyN7LE1XtKw2V5KvHhPXfUfa9SNRGBLuD

"Many people are saying..."

https://imgflip.com/i/28tjlw

Many experts believe...

[2Birds1Stone]

Iphone X top is in.

[KTG]

Okay everyone, I am finally back in the green until Trump's next tweet.

I told you this was all going to work out fine. Everyone was getting all worried and all. I said, be cool, think long term, and things will bounce back.

Sheesh.

AAAAAAAAAAAAAARRRRRRRRRRRGGGGGGGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Tyson]

Okay everyone, I am finally back in the green until Trump's next tweet.

I told you this was all going to work out fine. Everyone was getting all worried and all. I said, be cool, think long term, and things will bounce back.

Sheesh.

AAAAAAAAAAAAAARRRRRRRRRRRGGGGGGGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Do you see the irony of quoting about the need for long term thinking from a week ago? 

[OurTown]

2,635 as of this writing.  If it drops below 2,500 I should hit a rebalancing band. Top is in!

[dragoncar]

2,635 as of this writing.  If it drops below 2,500 I should hit a rebalancing band. Top is in!

2165 as of right now.  I have 2164 jellybeans.  2163 and falling

[DS]

Miscellaneous numbers as of writing this. This may be my last communication. Selling all assets including computer because the top is in.

[thd7t]

Miscellaneous numbers as of writing this. This may be my last communication. Selling all assets including computer because the top is in.

You should consider an investment in weasels. 

[Financial.Velociraptor]

Miscellaneous numbers as of writing this. This may be my last communication. Selling all assets including computer because the top is in.

You should consider an investment in weasels.

Weasel market is in a classic bubble.  Top is in.  For weasels.

[thd7t]

Miscellaneous numbers as of writing this. This may be my last communication. Selling all assets including computer because the top is in.

You should consider an investment in weasels.

Top is never in for weasels!  But, buy the dip!

Weasel market is in a classic bubble.  Top is in.  For weasels.

[Optimiser]

Miscellaneous numbers as of writing this. This may be my last communication. Selling all assets including computer because the top is in.

You should consider an investment in weasels.

Weasel market is in a classic bubble.  Top is in.  For weasels.

Source?

My guy says weasels are poised for a breakout.

[dougules]

Miscellaneous numbers as of writing this. This may be my last communication. Selling all assets including computer because the top is in.

You should consider an investment in weasels.

Weasel market is in a classic bubble.  Top is in.  For weasels.

Source?

My guy says weasels are poised for a breakout.

I've heard of dead cat bounces but never an angry weasel glide. 

I'd say the top is in for that weasel because the WWC (Weasel weight coefficient) is clearly much higher than the BLF (bird lift factor) can support. 

[solon]

Miscellaneous numbers as of writing this. This may be my last communication. Selling all assets including computer because the top is in.

You should consider an investment in weasels.

Weasel market is in a classic bubble.  Top is in.  For weasels.

Source?

My guy says weasels are poised for a breakout.

I've heard of dead cat bounces but never an angry weasel glide. 

I'd say the top is in for that weasel because the WWC (Weasel weight coefficient) is clearly much higher than the BLF (bird lift factor) can support.

Unless it's an african swallow...

[Clean Shaven]

via Imgflip Meme Generator

[Bicycle_B]

@KTG, keep holding on, you can do it.  Breathe, buddy.  You got this. 

You've got to have some agony in reserve for the S&P 2400-2500 range!    :)

Joking aside, glad you're sticking with us.

[Stachless]

Happy Top-aversary!!  It's been 3 months without a new high since 1/26/18.  Is it OK to post Topless Pics on here?

[retireatbirth]

In all seriousness, what qualifies as a top? I say six months without a top topifies the prior top, but perhaps there's an official definition.

[dividendman]

In all seriousness, what qualifies as a top? I say six months without a top topifies the prior top, but perhaps there's an official definition.

The definition of Top is clear: When the market (of your choice - but usually the S&P500) reaches it's highest point - i.e. a point it will never go higher than. That is the Top. It might have been back in January.

The weird thing about the Top is that we'll never know if it is truly the Top.

[Bill_]

Mother of all TOPS....Nikkei 225 circa October 1989.

Top is still in.

[Optimiser]

Mother of all TOPS....Nikkei 225 circa October 1989.

Top is still in.

Anyone have a good (brief) resource I could read on why that happened and why it still hasn't recovered?

[ILikeDividends]

Mother of all TOPS....Nikkei 225 circa October 1989.

Top is still in.

Anyone have a good (brief) resource I could read on why that happened and why it still hasn't recovered?

Here's as good a place to start as any:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lost_Decade_(Japan)

Edit to add: For some reason, clicking that link does not include the closing paren, and so it doesn't bring up the article.  Copy/paste the above URL into your browser to find it.

Here's the TLDR: As economist Paul Krugman explained, "Japan's banks lent more, with less regard for quality of the borrower, than anyone else's. In doing so they helped inflate the bubble economy to grotesque proportions."

[sol]

Anyone have a good (brief) resource I could read on why that happened and why it still hasn't recovered?

Wild speculation that Japan's economy (Toyota, Sony, etc) was going to take over the entire world, without regard for the underlying fundamentals of those companies or the population that supported them.  Nikkei prices increased roughly 40%/year for like six years in a row before the crash, and every (non-Japanese) financial press in the world was decrying the Japanese takeover of the global economy.  But those companies paid crazy high dividends, extracting market value as cash payments to stockholders while depressing stock prices, had significant pension liabilities, and were unusually dependent on continued technological innovation, unlike a company like Unilever that is profitable for decades without changing much of anything. 

There was rampant speculation in every market, fueled by accommodating financial policy, which was then abruptly cut off when the central bank freaked out and got overzealous.  It wasn't just a market collapse, it was an economic collapse.  Wages fell.  GDP fell.  Real estate crashed.  Deflation caused people to hoard their money instead of spending it, making the problems worse.  Companies that had expanded rapidly during the good times by taking on debt were suddenly unable to service it, and there were waves of Bear Stearns-style bankruptcies. 

American stock bears typically point to the Japanese stock crash as a worst-case scenario for the US, but what they're really talking about isn't a market price decline, it's an economic failure.  Yes, the US stock market could go the way of the Japanese stock market, but only if the US is replaced by some other global superpower.  It would take a fundamental restructuring of the entire global economy for the S&P500 to turn into the Nikkei.  It's not part of the normal business cycle, it's an example of a country dropping off the superpower list.

[Tyson]

Anyone have a good (brief) resource I could read on why that happened and why it still hasn't recovered?

Wild speculation that Japan's economy (Toyota, Sony, etc) was going to take over the entire world, without regard for the underlying fundamentals of those companies or the population that supported them.  Nikkei prices increased roughly 40%/year for like six years in a row before the crash, and every (non-Japanese) financial press in the world was decrying the Japanese takeover of the global economy.  But those companies paid crazy high dividends, extracting market value as cash payments to stockholders while depressing stock prices, had significant pension liabilities, and were unusually dependent on continued technological innovation, unlike a company like Unilever that is profitable for decades without changing much of anything. 

There was rampant speculation in every market, fueled by accommodating financial policy, which was then abruptly cut off when the central bank freaked out and got overzealous.  It wasn't just a market collapse, it was an economic collapse.  Wages fell.  GDP fell.  Real estate crashed.  Deflation caused people to hoard their money instead of spending it, making the problems worse.  Companies that had expanded rapidly during the good times by taking on debt were suddenly unable to service it, and there were waves of Bear Stearns-style bankruptcies. 

American stock bears typically point to the Japanese stock crash as a worst-case scenario for the US, but what they're really talking about isn't a market price decline, it's an economic failure.  Yes, the US stock market could go the way of the Japanese stock market, but only if the US is replaced by some other global superpower.  It would take a fundamental restructuring of the entire global economy for the S&P500 to turn into the Nikkei.  It's not part of the normal business cycle, it's an example of a country dropping off the superpower list.

But, I read Taleb and BLACK SWAN!!!  /snark.

[aspiringnomad]

Anyone have a good (brief) resource I could read on why that happened and why it still hasn't recovered?

Wild speculation that Japan's economy (Toyota, Sony, etc) was going to take over the entire world, without regard for the underlying fundamentals of those companies or the population that supported them.  Nikkei prices increased roughly 40%/year for like six years in a row before the crash, and every (non-Japanese) financial press in the world was decrying the Japanese takeover of the global economy.  But those companies paid crazy high dividends, extracting market value as cash payments to stockholders while depressing stock prices, had significant pension liabilities, and were unusually dependent on continued technological innovation, unlike a company like Unilever that is profitable for decades without changing much of anything. 

There was rampant speculation in every market, fueled by accommodating financial policy, which was then abruptly cut off when the central bank freaked out and got overzealous.  It wasn't just a market collapse, it was an economic collapse.  Wages fell.  GDP fell.  Real estate crashed.  Deflation caused people to hoard their money instead of spending it, making the problems worse.  Companies that had expanded rapidly during the good times by taking on debt were suddenly unable to service it, and there were waves of Bear Stearns-style bankruptcies. 

American stock bears typically point to the Japanese stock crash as a worst-case scenario for the US, but what they're really talking about isn't a market price decline, it's an economic failure.  Yes, the US stock market could go the way of the Japanese stock market, but only if the US is replaced by some other global superpower.  It would take a fundamental restructuring of the entire global economy for the S&P500 to turn into the Nikkei.  It's not part of the normal business cycle, it's an example of a country dropping off the superpower list.

This is an excellent summary.

I'll just add that Japan's rapidly aging demographics over the past couple decades served as a massive headwind to any economic or market rebound. Demography is destiny. (Maybe you were alluding to that with "...or the population that supported them").

According to the source hyperlinked below:

• A 1 basis-point increase in the share of working-age (15 to 64) population would increase per capita real GDP growth (in PPP terms) by as much as 8 basis points.
  
• Conversely, a 1 basis-point increase in the share of elderly population (65 and up) would decrease economic growth by about 4 basis points.
  
• As is well known, Japan has gone through a much more dramatic ageing process. At the end of World War II, Japan was a very "young" country--with a much younger composition of population than the United States. As shown in the lower left panel of Figure 1, each of the 0-14 and 15-39 age groups accounted for more than 35 percent of the total population in 1950, while only one in four people was older than age 40. Sixty years later, less than half of the population was under 40 years old; about one in three people was between ages 40 and 64, and nearly one in four was older than 65. Many studies have documented that this rapid ageing in Japan has been an important factor accounting for the downward trend in Japanese GDP growth.
  

Source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/econresdata/notes/ifdp-notes/2016/effects-of-demographic-change-on-gdp-growth-in-oecd-economies-20160928.html



 

[dragoncar]

Anyone have a good (brief) resource I could read on why that happened and why it still hasn't recovered?

Wild speculation that Japan's economy (Toyota, Sony, etc) was going to take over the entire world, without regard for the underlying fundamentals of those companies or the population that supported them.  Nikkei prices increased roughly 40%/year for like six years in a row before the crash, and every (non-Japanese) financial press in the world was decrying the Japanese takeover of the global economy.  But those companies paid crazy high dividends, extracting market value as cash payments to stockholders while depressing stock prices, had significant pension liabilities, and were unusually dependent on continued technological innovation, unlike a company like Unilever that is profitable for decades without changing much of anything. 

There was rampant speculation in every market, fueled by accommodating financial policy, which was then abruptly cut off when the central bank freaked out and got overzealous.  It wasn't just a market collapse, it was an economic collapse.  Wages fell.  GDP fell.  Real estate crashed.  Deflation caused people to hoard their money instead of spending it, making the problems worse.  Companies that had expanded rapidly during the good times by taking on debt were suddenly unable to service it, and there were waves of Bear Stearns-style bankruptcies. 

American stock bears typically point to the Japanese stock crash as a worst-case scenario for the US, but what they're really talking about isn't a market price decline, it's an economic failure.  Yes, the US stock market could go the way of the Japanese stock market, but only if the US is replaced by some other global superpower.  It would take a fundamental restructuring of the entire global economy for the S&P500 to turn into the Nikkei.  It's not part of the normal business cycle, it's an example of a country dropping off the superpower list.

So how did Japanese retirees fare?  Were they dying in the streets, had mostly pensions, went back to work?  I was under the impression that due to price deflation things weren't all that painful during that time, although the economy was objectively bad -- however I can't find a source for that now so maybe I just made it up in my head.

[GuitarStv]

Anyone have a good (brief) resource I could read on why that happened and why it still hasn't recovered?

Wild speculation that Japan's economy (Toyota, Sony, etc) was going to take over the entire world, without regard for the underlying fundamentals of those companies or the population that supported them.  Nikkei prices increased roughly 40%/year for like six years in a row before the crash, and every (non-Japanese) financial press in the world was decrying the Japanese takeover of the global economy.  But those companies paid crazy high dividends, extracting market value as cash payments to stockholders while depressing stock prices, had significant pension liabilities, and were unusually dependent on continued technological innovation, unlike a company like Unilever that is profitable for decades without changing much of anything. 

There was rampant speculation in every market, fueled by accommodating financial policy, which was then abruptly cut off when the central bank freaked out and got overzealous.  It wasn't just a market collapse, it was an economic collapse.  Wages fell.  GDP fell.  Real estate crashed.  Deflation caused people to hoard their money instead of spending it, making the problems worse.  Companies that had expanded rapidly during the good times by taking on debt were suddenly unable to service it, and there were waves of Bear Stearns-style bankruptcies. 

American stock bears typically point to the Japanese stock crash as a worst-case scenario for the US, but what they're really talking about isn't a market price decline, it's an economic failure.  Yes, the US stock market could go the way of the Japanese stock market, but only if the US is replaced by some other global superpower.  It would take a fundamental restructuring of the entire global economy for the S&P500 to turn into the Nikkei.  It's not part of the normal business cycle, it's an example of a country dropping off the superpower list.

So how did Japanese retirees fare?  Were they dying in the streets, had mostly pensions, went back to work?  I was under the impression that due to price deflation things weren't all that painful during that time, although the economy was objectively bad -- however I can't find a source for that now so maybe I just made it up in my head.

Retirees?  I always thought that the stereotype was that Japanese men typically worked until death.  :P

[maizefolk]

If you were a man retiring at say, 65, in Japan in 1989, you were 21 in 1945. So the generation most impacted by the collapse of the japanese bubble would have been substantially smaller than usual since those were the people of the right age to be sent off to war in world war II and a lot of them never came back home.

[solon]

**crickets**

[sol]

**crickets**

Because the top was in.

[dragoncar]

**crickets**

Because the top was in.

Should I sell everything?

[sol]

**crickets**

Because the top was in.

Should I sell everything?

No, it's too late now.  We're on the rebound, new top coming soon.

[JAYSLOL]

**crickets**

Because the top was in.

Should I sell everything?

You haven't sold everything already?!?!?!?   I kept checking to see if anyone posted here today, but I guess there's not much to report at the moment.  This thread is more fun when there's new Tops or bottoms in all the time. 

[Radagast]

Bottom cricket is apparently not in yet, having read the caption.

[dragoncar]

**crickets**

Because the top was in.

Should I sell everything?

No, it's too late now.  We're on the rebound, new top coming soon.

So I should buy?  Seems risky


Or maybe I should try this time machine I ordered online

[Davnasty]

In all seriousness, what qualifies as a top? I say six months without a top topifies the prior top, but perhaps there's an official definition.

The definition of Top is clear: When the market (of your choice - but usually the S&P500) reaches it's highest point - i.e. a point it will never go higher than. That is the Top. It might have been back in January.

The weird thing about the Top is that we'll never know if it is truly the Top.

Speak for yourself, I know a top when I see it.

[Brother Esau]

In all seriousness, what qualifies as a top? I say six months without a top topifies the prior top, but perhaps there's an official definition.

The definition of Top is clear: When the market (of your choice - but usually the S&P500) reaches it's highest point - i.e. a point it will never go higher than. That is the Top. It might have been back in January.

The weird thing about the Top is that we'll never know if it is truly the Top.

Speak for yourself, I know a top when I see it.

Soooo....when was the last top? Or have we never actually had one?

[Stachless]

In all seriousness, what qualifies as a top? I say six months without a top topifies the prior top, but perhaps there's an official definition.

The definition of Top is clear: When the market (of your choice - but usually the S&P500) reaches it's highest point - i.e. a point it will never go higher than. That is the Top. It might have been back in January.

The weird thing about the Top is that we'll never know if it is truly the Top.

Speak for yourself, I know a top when I see it.

Soooo....when was the last top? Or have we never actually had one?

I don't disagree with the definition, but there should be some inflation-adjustment built in.  Many folks look back at market charts and claim how 'the market is always at the top' without factoring in that a dollar today is worth waaaaaaaaay less than $1 ten or 20 years ago was. 

[Davnasty]

In all seriousness, what qualifies as a top? I say six months without a top topifies the prior top, but perhaps there's an official definition.

The definition of Top is clear: When the market (of your choice - but usually the S&P500) reaches it's highest point - i.e. a point it will never go higher than. That is the Top. It might have been back in January.

The weird thing about the Top is that we'll never know if it is truly the Top.

Speak for yourself, I know a top when I see it.

Soooo....when was the last top? Or have we never actually had one?

Not yet, but I'll let you know when it gets here.