Author Topic: Top is in  (Read 485151 times)

TheAnonOne

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2200 on: February 08, 2018, 11:25:58 AM »

But just to be super clear, Iím only sexually attracted to cars

Any specific colored car? Or

Any color.  Big tailpipe

I can't wait for the first twitter post from a self aware car complaining about being harassed by a dragon.

The world will have truly gone mad by then, though these days you can never tell. It's all bonkers anyway.
How does one get consent from a car, anyway?  Do we not already treat them like our slaves, demanding they carry us whenever and wherever we please?
Do these latest Ďsmart carsí have the right to decline a particular trip entirely?  We are already giving them the freedom to choose not to steer into a lamppost if they donít want to and not to merge into another car if they donít feel like it...

Musk's car is going to return in 100 years at the head of an alien army and slaughter us all. The first words out of its mouth will be "NOW the top is in!"
Well thank goodness I won't be around then for it to matter.  Let my offspring's offspring deal with it.

Speak for yourself, I have at least 100 good years left in me! We are all in it for the long haul here right?

I'm going to live forever.

So far, so good.

And good luck proving me wrong. One of us won't be around to say "I told you so!"

What makes you so sure? Can I have your models based on past life performance?

Bicycle_B

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2201 on: February 08, 2018, 11:54:47 AM »


Musk's car is going to return in 100 years at the head of an alien army and slaughter us all. The first words out of its mouth will be "NOW the top is in!"

That's the top I am waiting for. 

Clean Shaven

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2202 on: February 08, 2018, 12:01:53 PM »


Musk's car is going to return in 100 years at the head of an alien army and slaughter us all. The first words out of its mouth will be "NOW the top is in!"

That's the top I am waiting for.

I hate to be the one to break it to you, but Musk's car was a roadster, which has no top.

JAYSLOL

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2203 on: February 08, 2018, 12:17:22 PM »


Musk's car is going to return in 100 years at the head of an alien army and slaughter us all. The first words out of its mouth will be "NOW the top is in!"

That's the top I am waiting for.

I hate to be the one to break it to you, but Musk's car was a roadster, which has no top.

Also, in zero gravity if it had a roof, would it be the top?  Hmmm. 

Mississippi Mudstache

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2204 on: February 08, 2018, 12:49:57 PM »


Musk's car is going to return in 100 years at the head of an alien army and slaughter us all. The first words out of its mouth will be "NOW the top is in!"

That's the top I am waiting for.

I hate to be the one to break it to you, but Musk's car was a roadster, which has no top.

Also, in zero gravity if it had a roof, would it be the top?  Hmmm.

Common misconception - objects in orbit are not in zero gravity, but perpetual free-fall, much like the stock market from this point forward!


ILikeDividends

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2205 on: February 08, 2018, 01:08:04 PM »

Common misconception - objects in orbit are not in zero gravity, but perpetual free-fall, much like the stock market from this point forward!



There is no such thing as gravity.  The earth sucks.

Vacuum is in.
« Last Edit: February 08, 2018, 01:14:32 PM by ILikeDividends »

Blockchain_dragoncar

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2206 on: February 08, 2018, 01:11:46 PM »


Musk's car is going to return in 100 years at the head of an alien army and slaughter us all. The first words out of its mouth will be "NOW the top is in!"

That's the top I am waiting for.

I hate to be the one to break it to you, but Musk's car was a roadster, which has no top.

Also, in zero gravity if it had a roof, would it be the top?  Hmmm.

Common misconception - objects in orbit are not in zero gravity, but perpetual free-fall, much like the stock market from this point forward!



The roadster has another 67% to go before aphelion  TOP NOT IN

Blockchain_dragoncar

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2207 on: February 08, 2018, 01:14:59 PM »
The polite response when you donít like a joke is to laugh and pretend it was funny.  You guys are so rude

MrDelane

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2208 on: February 08, 2018, 01:27:51 PM »
The polite response when you donít like a joke is to laugh and pretend it was funny.  You guys are so rude

Hahaha.

Blockchain_dragoncar

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2209 on: February 08, 2018, 01:40:32 PM »
The polite response when you donít like a joke is to laugh and pretend it was funny.  You guys are so rude

Hahaha.

Shit sorry you didnít like that one

Cabaka

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2210 on: February 08, 2018, 01:44:30 PM »


hmmm. would have thought this thread would be more financially entertaining.

oh well, still early yet. if the rates continue to increase and world feds stay on their schedule, it's still got possibilities.

ILikeDividends

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2211 on: February 08, 2018, 01:53:36 PM »

hmmm. would have thought this thread would be more financially entertaining.


Trader 1: Hey, I just bought a million dollar dog.
Trader 2: How do you know it's worth a million dollars?
Trader 1: Because I traded two half million dollar cats for it.

Hedge fund manager: Hey little boy, why are you playing with that dog sh*t?
Little boy: I'm making a day-trader.
Hedge fund manager: Why are you making a day-trader?
Little boy: Because I don't have enough sh*t to make a hedge fund manager.
« Last Edit: February 08, 2018, 02:07:46 PM by ILikeDividends »

frugalnacho

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2212 on: February 08, 2018, 02:12:57 PM »

dandarc

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2213 on: February 08, 2018, 02:32:18 PM »
10% gain coming today.  Cashed out my entire 401K yesterday and re-buying better funds today.  Noticed E-Trade now offering Schwab index funds on the no-fee list, so I got off my ass and finally fixed that account to line up with the IPS.  A little under half of our entire portfolio in cash for 1 day.  With my luck, market going up today is pretty much guaranteed.

So top is in - at close today.
Reverse jinx worked!  Funds aren't priced yet, but looking at ETFs that track same indices, I "made" about 2 weeks gross pay by having the 401K in cash today.

New plan - quit job and just find a day every other week to go to cash for.  What could possibly go wrong?

nereo

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2214 on: February 08, 2018, 02:37:04 PM »
10% gain coming today.  Cashed out my entire 401K yesterday and re-buying better funds today.  Noticed E-Trade now offering Schwab index funds on the no-fee list, so I got off my ass and finally fixed that account to line up with the IPS.  A little under half of our entire portfolio in cash for 1 day.  With my luck, market going up today is pretty much guaranteed.

So top is in - at close today.
Reverse jinx worked!  Funds aren't priced yet, but looking at ETFs that track same indices, I "made" about 2 weeks gross pay by having the 401K in cash today.

New plan - quit job and just find a day every other week to go to cash for.  What could possibly go wrong?

I was coming here to post: Good Job - you were only off by about 14%!
Glad you made out today.
- as for what could possibily go wrong... I can't think of a thing [sarcasm/]

sol

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2215 on: February 08, 2018, 02:58:57 PM »
Market is down 10% in a week.  Another week of this and I'm going to have to start scouring the couch cushions to find spare cash to stuff in. 

As for today, it's business as usual.  Thursday is a buying day this week like every week.  Normal amount on the normal schedule.  Yawn.

Does anyone else think the plunging stock market is related to inflation fears tires to the announcement of the new budget deal, which adds about $300m per year of new deficit spending on top of the $1500m added by the new tax bill?  I mean I know Trump calls himself "the king of debt" but this seems a little too on the nose.


Mr. Green

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2216 on: February 08, 2018, 03:04:30 PM »
Loving all the space references! Lol

Exflyboy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2217 on: February 08, 2018, 03:07:46 PM »
Oh but the tax cuts will spur economic growth so we will pay off the National Debt in no time.... I got a bridge for sale over here if you're interested?

I see the S&P has just dipped into correction territory today.. Anyone doing any extra buying at these levels?

I'm at 80:20 (FIRED) but I think if we hit 20% down I might roll 25% of my bond holdings into VTSAX.. I think I could go as far as 90:10 (maybe if we hit 30% down) and be OK with that asset allocation.

hadabeardonce

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2218 on: February 08, 2018, 03:10:45 PM »
Does anyone else think the plunging stock market is related to inflation fears tires to the announcement of the new budget deal, which adds about $300m per year of new deficit spending on top of the $1500m added by the new tax bill?  I mean I know Trump calls himself "the king of debt" but this seems a little too on the nose.
I don't know enough to explain the selloff, but I know enough to stick to my current plan and continue investing for the long run.

Maybe it's just baby boomers retiring? Exodus from the market of those born around 1955? Cashing out to buy houses at low rates or bitcoin?

Lews Therin

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2219 on: February 08, 2018, 03:15:02 PM »
Oh but the tax cuts will spur economic growth so we will pay off the National Debt in no time.... I got a bridge for sale over here if you're interested?

I see the S&P has just dipped into correction territory today.. Anyone doing any extra buying at these levels?

I'm at 80:20 (FIRED) but I think if we hit 20% down I might roll 25% of my bond holdings into VTSAX.. I think I could go as far as 90:10 (maybe if we hit 30% down) and be OK with that asset allocation.

I want to, but I already spent all my extra tuesday.... The moment I get a paycheck though....

Tabaxus

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2220 on: February 08, 2018, 03:22:40 PM »
I got my paycheck today, so $7k went in...  I will admit that I thought pretty hard about dipping into my emergency funds and "pay taxes in April" funds to accelerate some investments into today (could have tapped about $20-30k; certainly would have the cash flow to top off my taxes before April, but would be thin on my emergency account until May or June).  Held that impulse off, probably shouldn't have, but at the end of the day, even if I pushed $20-30k in early at the bottom, would not be life-altering.  Would be more life-altering to allow something to get me off-plan.

WhiteTrashCash

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2221 on: February 08, 2018, 04:01:52 PM »
Recently, I've started using the word "dotard" to refer to idiots, because it's kind of like "retard" only it isn't ableist. The people who are actually pulling their money out of the stock market right now because Americans are being paid more money to spend on goods and services are dotards. The people buying bitcoin are also dotards. The people investing in gold and silver are uber dotards.

I am looking forward to all the extra discounted shares I'm going to purchase. Thanks, dotards!
« Last Edit: February 08, 2018, 04:03:41 PM by WhiteTrashCash »

Blockchain_dragoncar

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2222 on: February 08, 2018, 04:07:20 PM »
Market is down 10% in a week.  Another week of this and I'm going to have to start scouring the couch cushions to find spare cash to stuff in. 

As for today, it's business as usual.  Thursday is a buying day this week like every week.  Normal amount on the normal schedule.  Yawn.

Does anyone else think the plunging stock market is related to inflation fears tires to the announcement of the new budget deal, which adds about $300m per year of new deficit spending on top of the $1500m added by the new tax bill?  I mean I know Trump calls himself "the king of debt" but this seems a little too on the nose.

Wouldn't inflation drive stock prices up? 

NoraLenderbee

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2223 on: February 08, 2018, 04:32:29 PM »
Recently, I've started using the word "dotard" to refer to idiots, because it's kind of like "retard" only it isn't ableist.

A dotard is a senile old person, so you're being ageist.

sol

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2224 on: February 08, 2018, 04:38:34 PM »
Wouldn't inflation drive stock prices up?

The argument in the press these days is that rising inflation will cause the new Fed to raise rates, which will hurt the economy and tank stocks.

Let's keep in mind that the 7 member fed currently has four empty seats, a new anti-regulation fed chair who wants easier credit lending, and a pending nomination with a long history of prioritizing inflation over employment concerns (i.e. he's been desperate to raise rates faster for years now).  I think there is a legitimate concern that Trump's fed is going to totally blow it.  The adults have all left the room.

The market certainly seems to think so.

facepalm

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2225 on: February 08, 2018, 05:13:45 PM »
Market is down 10% in a week.  Another week of this and I'm going to have to start scouring the couch cushions to find spare cash to stuff in. 

As for today, it's business as usual.  Thursday is a buying day this week like every week.  Normal amount on the normal schedule.  Yawn.

Does anyone else think the plunging stock market is related to inflation fears tires to the announcement of the new budget deal, which adds about $300m per year of new deficit spending on top of the $1500m added by the new tax bill?  I mean I know Trump calls himself "the king of debt" but this seems a little too on the nose.

Wouldn't inflation drive stock prices up?

There is data that suggests that growth sticks are negatively impact Ed by inflation. As are the dollars you are using to buy your stocks.

WhiteTrashCash

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2226 on: February 08, 2018, 05:23:09 PM »
Recently, I've started using the word "dotard" to refer to idiots, because it's kind of like "retard" only it isn't ableist.

A dotard is a senile old person, so you're being ageist.

The Merriam-Webster dictionary doesn't mention anything about the dotard being old. Just senile. I know plenty of people who are senile but not old. Many of them serve in Congress.

Mr. Green

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2227 on: February 08, 2018, 05:59:04 PM »
I'm at 80:20 (FIRED) but I think if we hit 20% down I might roll 25% of my bond holdings into VTSAX.. I think I could go as far as 90:10 (maybe if we hit 30% down) and be OK with that asset allocation.
I was thinking the same thing; I'm 80:20 as well. I think I'd move to 90:10 if we see a 20% drop, and I'd consider going all in on stocks under the right circumstances. When would you bring your AA back to 80:20? Would you wait for a full recovery to the all-time high?

dividendman

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2228 on: February 08, 2018, 06:50:22 PM »
I'm at 80:20 (FIRED) but I think if we hit 20% down I might roll 25% of my bond holdings into VTSAX.. I think I could go as far as 90:10 (maybe if we hit 30% down) and be OK with that asset allocation.
I was thinking the same thing; I'm 80:20 as well. I think I'd move to 90:10 if we see a 20% drop, and I'd consider going all in on stocks under the right circumstances. When would you bring your AA back to 80:20? Would you wait for a full recovery to the all-time high?

Hrm... market timing is probably a bad idea even if you think a 20% drop is a great time to do it. I'm going to stick with my IPS and re-balance twice a year (next time is Feb 20th) and keep my rising equity glide-path going (from 75:25 stocks:bonds to 95:5 over 10 years, 2% per year).

All of that being said it's clear that the top is in and any equity allocation is folly.

Blockchain_dragoncar

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2229 on: February 08, 2018, 06:59:12 PM »
Wouldn't inflation drive stock prices up?

The argument in the press these days is that rising inflation will cause the new Fed to raise rates, which will hurt the economy and tank stocks.

Let's keep in mind that the 7 member fed currently has four empty seats, a new anti-regulation fed chair who wants easier credit lending, and a pending nomination with a long history of prioritizing inflation over employment concerns (i.e. he's been desperate to raise rates faster for years now).  I think there is a legitimate concern that Trump's fed is going to totally blow it.  The adults have all left the room.

The market certainly seems to think so.

Gee, that hasn't been clear for quite some time?

Blockchain_dragoncar

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2230 on: February 08, 2018, 07:01:31 PM »
Recently, I've started using the word "dotard" to refer to idiots, because it's kind of like "retard" only it isn't ableist.

A dotard is a senile old person, so you're being ageist.

The Merriam-Webster dictionary doesn't mention anything about the dotard being old. Just senile. I know plenty of people who are senile but not old. Many of them serve in Congress.

The basic definition of senility implies old age, though

Anyways, as an idiot, I'm quite taking offense at this discussion

Radagast

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2231 on: February 08, 2018, 08:01:28 PM »
CONGRATULATIONS THORSTACH! With a 10% decline, officially a correction, you have successfully called your first top! You called the top on:
April 11, 12, 13, 26, 28
May 9, 11, 16, 17
June 27, 29
July 1, 24, 27
August 4, 8, 18, 22
September 5
October 23
December 1
February 2
You were right! You called the top correctly in just 22 tries! With performance like that you are nearly as good as a stopped clock's hour hand, and well deserving of this certificate of achievement.
via Imgflip Meme Generator

You also get this aspirational stopped clock!
via Imgflip Meme Generator

via Imgflip Meme Generator


JAYSLOL

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2232 on: February 08, 2018, 08:44:53 PM »
LOL. 

MrMoneyMullet

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2233 on: February 08, 2018, 08:47:57 PM »
CONGRATULATIONS THORSTACH! With a 10% decline, officially a correction, you have successfully called your first top! You called the top on:
April 11, 12, 13, 26, 28
May 9, 11, 16, 17
June 27, 29
July 1, 24, 27
August 4, 8, 18, 22
September 5
October 23
December 1
February 2
You were right! You called the top correctly in just 22 tries! With performance like that you are nearly as good as a stopped clock's hour hand, and well deserving of this certificate of achievement.

Oh man, I laughed out loud! Nice work!

I meant to look earlier today how far the market would have to drop before even getting to the level of the first called "top" on this thread, but I was too lazy. Now that the top is in, I am finding little joy in even the most basic snarky tasks.

MrDelane

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2234 on: February 08, 2018, 08:58:13 PM »
Radagast, well done.

:)

bacchi

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2235 on: February 08, 2018, 10:44:22 PM »
Hahahaha. That certificate of achievement is comedy gold.

PhilB

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2236 on: February 09, 2018, 01:59:13 AM »
Recently, I've started using the word "dotard" to refer to idiots, because it's kind of like "retard" only it isn't ableist.

A dotard is a senile old person, so you're being ageist.

The Merriam-Webster dictionary doesn't mention anything about the dotard being old. Just senile. I know plenty of people who are senile but not old. Many of them serve in Congress.

The basic definition of senility implies old age, though

Anyways, as an idiot, I'm quite taking offense at this discussion
If we're taking Merriam-Webster as authorative here and MW says dotard = senile, then it's probably worth checking how MW defines senile:
Quote
: of, relating to, exhibiting, or characteristic of old age ∑senile weakness
; especially : exhibiting a loss of cognitive abilities (such as memory) associated with old age

WhiteTrashCash

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2237 on: February 09, 2018, 04:23:58 AM »
Recently, I've started using the word "dotard" to refer to idiots, because it's kind of like "retard" only it isn't ableist.

A dotard is a senile old person, so you're being ageist.

The Merriam-Webster dictionary doesn't mention anything about the dotard being old. Just senile. I know plenty of people who are senile but not old. Many of them serve in Congress.

The basic definition of senility implies old age, though

Anyways, as an idiot, I'm quite taking offense at this discussion
If we're taking Merriam-Webster as authorative here and MW says dotard = senile, then it's probably worth checking how MW defines senile:
Quote
: of, relating to, exhibiting, or characteristic of old age ∑senile weakness
; especially : exhibiting a loss of cognitive abilities (such as memory) associated with old age

Jeez, way to beat a great joke to death. I bet yer a scream at parties. "Well, actually..."

PhilB

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2238 on: February 09, 2018, 05:50:56 AM »
Jeez, way to beat a great joke to death. I bet yer a scream at parties. "Well, actually..."
Sorry, is this some traditional US joke I'm not aware of?  Person A uses a word without knowing it's meaning, person B tells them they're wrong. Person A say no they aren't by using another word they don't know the meaning of and then we all laugh?  I'll have to watch out for that one in future.

JG in Hangzhou

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2239 on: February 09, 2018, 06:35:26 AM »
Jeez, way to beat a great joke to death. I bet yer a scream at parties. "Well, actually..."
Sorry, is this some traditional US joke I'm not aware of?  Person A uses a word without knowing it's meaning, person B tells them they're wrong. Person A say no they aren't by using another word they don't know the meaning of and then we all laugh?  I'll have to watch out for that one in future.
Perhaps you meant to say "Is this joke an Americanism".  A traditional joke would be something like "why does the chicken cross the road?" or "knock knock... Who's there?"   but a joke that comes from some behavior pattern would be better represented by using the suffix "ism" than the word traditional...

Brother Esau

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2240 on: February 09, 2018, 06:37:24 AM »
CONGRATULATIONS THORSTACH! With a 10% decline, officially a correction, you have successfully called your first top! You called the top on:
April 11, 12, 13, 26, 28
May 9, 11, 16, 17
June 27, 29
July 1, 24, 27
August 4, 8, 18, 22
September 5
October 23
December 1
February 2
You were right! You called the top correctly in just 22 tries! With performance like that you are nearly as good as a stopped clock's hour hand, and well deserving of this certificate of achievement.
via Imgflip Meme Generator

You also get this aspirational stopped clock!
via Imgflip Meme Generator

via Imgflip Meme Generator


Mr. Green

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2241 on: February 09, 2018, 06:42:47 AM »
I'm at 80:20 (FIRED) but I think if we hit 20% down I might roll 25% of my bond holdings into VTSAX.. I think I could go as far as 90:10 (maybe if we hit 30% down) and be OK with that asset allocation.
I was thinking the same thing; I'm 80:20 as well. I think I'd move to 90:10 if we see a 20% drop, and I'd consider going all in on stocks under the right circumstances. When would you bring your AA back to 80:20? Would you wait for a full recovery to the all-time high?

Hrm... market timing is probably a bad idea even if you think a 20% drop is a great time to do it. I'm going to stick with my IPS and re-balance twice a year (next time is Feb 20th) and keep my rising equity glide-path going (from 75:25 stocks:bonds to 95:5 over 10 years, 2% per year).
Portfolio rebalancing is the same thing, this is just a heavy handed version. Stocks drop and suddenly your 80:20 is 75:25 or something like that. You rebalance to move some bond gains back over to stocks with the anticipation that stocks will outperform bonds at some point in the future. The same happens when stocks go up and you move money into bonds when your portfolio is suddenly 85:15. It's basically "over rebalancing" with the intention of catching the the ride up of the asset class you're moving money into. If one did this for every one of the major market cycles he would outperform the traditional rebalancer. It won't be a monumental difference in the long run but it's a sure thing as long as the market keeps going up long term.

PhilB

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2242 on: February 09, 2018, 07:28:53 AM »
Jeez, way to beat a great joke to death. I bet yer a scream at parties. "Well, actually..."
Sorry, is this some traditional US joke I'm not aware of?  Person A uses a word without knowing it's meaning, person B tells them they're wrong. Person A say no they aren't by using another word they don't know the meaning of and then we all laugh?  I'll have to watch out for that one in future.
Perhaps you meant to say "Is this joke an Americanism".  A traditional joke would be something like "why does the chicken cross the road?" or "knock knock... Who's there?"   but a joke that comes from some behavior pattern would be better represented by using the suffix "ism" than the word traditional...
Thank you JG.  I stand correctismed. :0)

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2243 on: February 09, 2018, 07:33:22 AM »
I'm at 80:20 (FIRED) but I think if we hit 20% down I might roll 25% of my bond holdings into VTSAX.. I think I could go as far as 90:10 (maybe if we hit 30% down) and be OK with that asset allocation.
I was thinking the same thing; I'm 80:20 as well. I think I'd move to 90:10 if we see a 20% drop, and I'd consider going all in on stocks under the right circumstances. When would you bring your AA back to 80:20? Would you wait for a full recovery to the all-time high?

Hrm... market timing is probably a bad idea even if you think a 20% drop is a great time to do it. I'm going to stick with my IPS and re-balance twice a year (next time is Feb 20th) and keep my rising equity glide-path going (from 75:25 stocks:bonds to 95:5 over 10 years, 2% per year).
Portfolio rebalancing is the same thing, this is just a heavy handed version. Stocks drop and suddenly your 80:20 is 75:25 or something like that. You rebalance to move some bond gains back over to stocks with the anticipation that stocks will outperform bonds at some point in the future. The same happens when stocks go up and you move money into bonds when your portfolio is suddenly 85:15. It's basically "over rebalancing" with the intention of catching the the ride up of the asset class you're moving money into. If one did this for every one of the major market cycles he would outperform the traditional rebalancer. It won't be a monumental difference in the long run but it's a sure thing as long as the market keeps going up long term.

Done properly portfolio rebalancing is NOT market timing. For starters, the timing of rebalancing should be pre-determined (a priori) and is typically either done at a given time interval (e.g. "quarterly") or based on asset percentages (e.g. "whenever any segment of my actual AA deviates more than 2% from my target AA"). Unlike market timing where you look at a single segment (usually equities) and decide to get in or get out (add or remove cash) rebalancing involves all your investments and their relationship to each other. "Over-rebalancing" isn't really rebalancing at all, as you are then ignoring your own AA in the hopes of (in your words) 'catching the ride up' - it's market timing (stupid) on top of normal rebalancing (smart).

GuitarStv

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2244 on: February 09, 2018, 08:03:48 AM »
I'm at 80:20 (FIRED) but I think if we hit 20% down I might roll 25% of my bond holdings into VTSAX.. I think I could go as far as 90:10 (maybe if we hit 30% down) and be OK with that asset allocation.
I was thinking the same thing; I'm 80:20 as well. I think I'd move to 90:10 if we see a 20% drop, and I'd consider going all in on stocks under the right circumstances. When would you bring your AA back to 80:20? Would you wait for a full recovery to the all-time high?

Hrm... market timing is probably a bad idea even if you think a 20% drop is a great time to do it. I'm going to stick with my IPS and re-balance twice a year (next time is Feb 20th) and keep my rising equity glide-path going (from 75:25 stocks:bonds to 95:5 over 10 years, 2% per year).
Portfolio rebalancing is the same thing, this is just a heavy handed version. Stocks drop and suddenly your 80:20 is 75:25 or something like that. You rebalance to move some bond gains back over to stocks with the anticipation that stocks will outperform bonds at some point in the future. The same happens when stocks go up and you move money into bonds when your portfolio is suddenly 85:15. It's basically "over rebalancing" with the intention of catching the the ride up of the asset class you're moving money into. If one did this for every one of the major market cycles he would outperform the traditional rebalancer. It won't be a monumental difference in the long run but it's a sure thing as long as the market keeps going up long term.

Done properly portfolio rebalancing is NOT market timing. For starters, the timing of rebalancing should be pre-determined (a priori) and is typically either done at a given time interval (e.g. "quarterly") or based on asset percentages (e.g. "whenever any segment of my actual AA deviates more than 2% from my target AA"). Unlike market timing where you look at a single segment (usually equities) and decide to get in or get out (add or remove cash) rebalancing involves all your investments and their relationship to each other. "Over-rebalancing" isn't really rebalancing at all, as you are then ignoring your own AA in the hopes of (in your words) 'catching the ride up' - it's market timing (stupid) on top of normal rebalancing (smart).

I'm not convinced there's such a thing as 'over-rebalancing'.  Your goal is to keep the AA at roughly the same levels (that's why you decided on an AA) . . . hence why you rebalance at all.  Most people don't rebalance every day simply because it's a PITA,  but if you were to do so I don't see how that would be detrimental in any way.

ingrownstudentloans

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2245 on: February 09, 2018, 08:12:39 AM »
I'm at 80:20 (FIRED) but I think if we hit 20% down I might roll 25% of my bond holdings into VTSAX.. I think I could go as far as 90:10 (maybe if we hit 30% down) and be OK with that asset allocation.
I was thinking the same thing; I'm 80:20 as well. I think I'd move to 90:10 if we see a 20% drop, and I'd consider going all in on stocks under the right circumstances. When would you bring your AA back to 80:20? Would you wait for a full recovery to the all-time high?

Hrm... market timing is probably a bad idea even if you think a 20% drop is a great time to do it. I'm going to stick with my IPS and re-balance twice a year (next time is Feb 20th) and keep my rising equity glide-path going (from 75:25 stocks:bonds to 95:5 over 10 years, 2% per year).
Portfolio rebalancing is the same thing, this is just a heavy handed version. Stocks drop and suddenly your 80:20 is 75:25 or something like that. You rebalance to move some bond gains back over to stocks with the anticipation that stocks will outperform bonds at some point in the future. The same happens when stocks go up and you move money into bonds when your portfolio is suddenly 85:15. It's basically "over rebalancing" with the intention of catching the the ride up of the asset class you're moving money into. If one did this for every one of the major market cycles he would outperform the traditional rebalancer. It won't be a monumental difference in the long run but it's a sure thing as long as the market keeps going up long term.

Done properly portfolio rebalancing is NOT market timing. For starters, the timing of rebalancing should be pre-determined (a priori) and is typically either done at a given time interval (e.g. "quarterly") or based on asset percentages (e.g. "whenever any segment of my actual AA deviates more than 2% from my target AA"). Unlike market timing where you look at a single segment (usually equities) and decide to get in or get out (add or remove cash) rebalancing involves all your investments and their relationship to each other. "Over-rebalancing" isn't really rebalancing at all, as you are then ignoring your own AA in the hopes of (in your words) 'catching the ride up' - it's market timing (stupid) on top of normal rebalancing (smart).

I'm not convinced there's such a thing as 'over-rebalancing'.  Your goal is to keep the AA at roughly the same levels (that's why you decided on an AA) . . . hence why you rebalance at all.  Most people don't rebalance every day simply because it's a PITA,  but if you were to do so I don't see how that would be detrimental in any way.

I agree to an extent, but I do think you miss out on momentum in the market and some of the inherent protections of the approach. 

If your 80/20 target swings to 81/19 in a given day because stocks (the assumed 80 in this example) are on the start of a run, you would miss out on the compounding of that run for however long it lasts.  On the other side, you would be throwing money into a falling knife scenario and loosing the protection of the balanced approach.  If market drops 5% in a day so you take your bond monies and put them into stock monies, and it drops another 5% the next day, you are in a worse position than you would have otherwise been had you kept a normal schedule.

I say do what makes you happy/comfortable.  I am set up for quarterly rebalancing because that works for me. 

PathtoFIRE

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2246 on: February 09, 2018, 08:15:29 AM »
When I frequented Bogleheads more, I seem to remember the general consensus was that rebalancing too often could hurt you. A quick google search only turned up this
https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Rebalancing which has a cited source at the bottom linking to some research suggesting the optimal rebalancing strategy (tl;dr check often but have large deviation standards before triggering a rebalance)

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2247 on: February 09, 2018, 08:16:02 AM »
I'm at 80:20 (FIRED) but I think if we hit 20% down I might roll 25% of my bond holdings into VTSAX.. I think I could go as far as 90:10 (maybe if we hit 30% down) and be OK with that asset allocation.
I was thinking the same thing; I'm 80:20 as well. I think I'd move to 90:10 if we see a 20% drop, and I'd consider going all in on stocks under the right circumstances. When would you bring your AA back to 80:20? Would you wait for a full recovery to the all-time high?

Hrm... market timing is probably a bad idea even if you think a 20% drop is a great time to do it. I'm going to stick with my IPS and re-balance twice a year (next time is Feb 20th) and keep my rising equity glide-path going (from 75:25 stocks:bonds to 95:5 over 10 years, 2% per year).
Portfolio rebalancing is the same thing, this is just a heavy handed version. Stocks drop and suddenly your 80:20 is 75:25 or something like that. You rebalance to move some bond gains back over to stocks with the anticipation that stocks will outperform bonds at some point in the future. The same happens when stocks go up and you move money into bonds when your portfolio is suddenly 85:15. It's basically "over rebalancing" with the intention of catching the the ride up of the asset class you're moving money into. If one did this for every one of the major market cycles he would outperform the traditional rebalancer. It won't be a monumental difference in the long run but it's a sure thing as long as the market keeps going up long term.

Depends.

I can see it working during normal market gyrations, but over-rebalancing during a longer bear market could have you catching a falling knife all the way down to 100% Stock, at which point you will need to keep riding the wave, regardless of direction. If you rebalance on certain dates, you at least have a better shot at riding out volatility over a multi year period. 


nereo

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2248 on: February 09, 2018, 08:32:42 AM »
I'm at 80:20 (FIRED) but I think if we hit 20% down I might roll 25% of my bond holdings into VTSAX.. I think I could go as far as 90:10 (maybe if we hit 30% down) and be OK with that asset allocation.
I was thinking the same thing; I'm 80:20 as well. I think I'd move to 90:10 if we see a 20% drop, and I'd consider going all in on stocks under the right circumstances. When would you bring your AA back to 80:20? Would you wait for a full recovery to the all-time high?

Hrm... market timing is probably a bad idea even if you think a 20% drop is a great time to do it. I'm going to stick with my IPS and re-balance twice a year (next time is Feb 20th) and keep my rising equity glide-path going (from 75:25 stocks:bonds to 95:5 over 10 years, 2% per year).
Portfolio rebalancing is the same thing, this is just a heavy handed version. Stocks drop and suddenly your 80:20 is 75:25 or something like that. You rebalance to move some bond gains back over to stocks with the anticipation that stocks will outperform bonds at some point in the future. The same happens when stocks go up and you move money into bonds when your portfolio is suddenly 85:15. It's basically "over rebalancing" with the intention of catching the the ride up of the asset class you're moving money into. If one did this for every one of the major market cycles he would outperform the traditional rebalancer. It won't be a monumental difference in the long run but it's a sure thing as long as the market keeps going up long term.

Done properly portfolio rebalancing is NOT market timing. For starters, the timing of rebalancing should be pre-determined (a priori) and is typically either done at a given time interval (e.g. "quarterly") or based on asset percentages (e.g. "whenever any segment of my actual AA deviates more than 2% from my target AA"). Unlike market timing where you look at a single segment (usually equities) and decide to get in or get out (add or remove cash) rebalancing involves all your investments and their relationship to each other. "Over-rebalancing" isn't really rebalancing at all, as you are then ignoring your own AA in the hopes of (in your words) 'catching the ride up' - it's market timing (stupid) on top of normal rebalancing (smart).

I'm not convinced there's such a thing as 'over-rebalancing'.  Your goal is to keep the AA at roughly the same levels (that's why you decided on an AA) . . . hence why you rebalance at all.  Most people don't rebalance every day simply because it's a PITA,  but if you were to do so I don't see how that would be detrimental in any way.

I agree to an extent, but I do think you miss out on momentum in the market and some of the inherent protections of the approach. 

If your 80/20 target swings to 81/19 in a given day because stocks (the assumed 80 in this example) are on the start of a run, you would miss out on the compounding of that run for however long it lasts.  On the other side, you would be throwing money into a falling knife scenario and loosing the protection of the balanced approach.  If market drops 5% in a day so you take your bond monies and put them into stock monies, and it drops another 5% the next day, you are in a worse position than you would have otherwise been had you kept a normal schedule.

I say do what makes you happy/comfortable.  I am set up for quarterly rebalancing because that works for me.

This is why you set your rebalancing strategy a priori.  People basically use two methods, either periodically (based on time) or divergence from target AA (based on % drift). I think it would be foolish to set either of those too high ('weekly' or 'anytime my portfolio changes >0.5% from my AA) - for one thing it could trigger unnecessary fees for buying/selling as well as STCG taxes, not to mention being a PITA with little positive gain for it.

The broader point I was making was that "over-balancing" in the context being used wasn't about the frequency of rebalancing but the degree of correction, and that is market timing.  If you need to correct (increase) your equities portion by 5% to meet your target AA of 80/20 - you don't look at what the market is doing and say "gee, I'll just go to 85/15 because I think the market is going to keep falling.  That becomes market timing. 
You rebalance, you wait for your pre-described trigger to rebalance again.  You don't try to guess where the market will be months from now and set your AA accordingly.

mathlete

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #2249 on: February 09, 2018, 09:26:08 AM »
God bless this thread.