Author Topic: Top is in  (Read 578822 times)

tyort1

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1750 on: January 24, 2018, 12:47:45 PM »
Fear is back, VIX above 15, XIV breaking down. SPY to follow, earnings will be a reality check.

Original post, quoted for comedy.  Seriously, I read that, it sounds so ominous and convincing and even a bit mysterious.  Then I look at what the stock market has done since April of last year.

It's amazing how confidently, breathtakingly wrong someone can be.

Travis

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1751 on: January 24, 2018, 12:50:39 PM »
Fear is back, VIX above 15, XIV breaking down. SPY to follow, earnings will be a reality check.

Original post, quoted for comedy.  Seriously, I read that, it sounds so ominous and convincing and even a bit mysterious.  Then I look at what the stock market has done since April of last year.

It's amazing how confidently, breathtakingly wrong someone can be.

You think it sounded ominous and convincing? I've been reading it off and on for almost a year and can't get past the bad grammar. I still have no idea what he said.

nereo

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1752 on: January 24, 2018, 01:02:41 PM »

It's amazing how confidently, breathtakingly wrong someone can be.

That's the curious thing about market analysis.  Your analysis can be spot-on and the outcome can be completely not what you predicted.  Sometimes that's because your metrics weren't the correct ones, other times its just because that's what happens.

"the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent"†.... and other such notables.

†supposedly said by Keynes, but there's reason to doubt he actually said it...

retireatbirth

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1753 on: January 24, 2018, 01:57:05 PM »
Economic surprise index has passed it's peak. This means EXTREME volatility is coming.  Top officially in.

Still Being

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1754 on: January 24, 2018, 02:02:44 PM »
That's the curious thing about market analysis.  Your analysis can be spot-on and the outcome can be completely not what you predicted.  Sometimes that's because your metrics weren't the correct ones, other times its just because that's what happens.

"the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent"†.... and other such notables.

†supposedly said by Keynes, but there's reason to doubt he actually said it...

Top

is

in

.

dougules

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1755 on: January 24, 2018, 03:12:46 PM »

It's amazing how confidently, breathtakingly wrong someone can be.

That's the curious thing about market analysis.  Your analysis can be spot-on and the outcome can be completely not what you predicted.  Sometimes that's because your metrics weren't the correct ones, other times its just because that's what happens.

"the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent"†.... and other such notables.

†supposedly said by Keynes, but there's reason to doubt he actually said it...

Also a system can't be measured without being changed.  If somebody comes up with the perfect market analysis and it gets out to a broader audience, all the people trying to take advantage of it will change the market to where the analysis is no longer valid. 

DavidAnnArbor

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1756 on: January 24, 2018, 06:18:20 PM »
Paul Krsek believes the Top is In or Does he ?


Stocks are the Most Overbought in 22 Years! So What?
January 24, 2018

The stock market is the most overbought since Bill Clinton was president, but that may actually be a good thing according to analysts who appeared on CNBC Monday.
 
Ari Wald, head of technical analysis at Oppenheimer, told CNBC's "Trading Nation" on Monday that the S&P 500's 14-month relative strength index (RSI) surpassed the 87 level for the first time in nearly 22 years.
 
The relative strength index (RSI) is a charting tool used by every technical analyst in the world.  The index ranges from 0 to 100. A market is considered to be overbought when the index is at 70 or above. That is often a time when caution should prevail.
 
A market is considered to be oversold when the index drops to 30 or below.  When the index falls below 30 it has often been a great time to buy bargains.
 
RSI 87 on the S&P 500 is a level that has been reached only 1 percent of the time since 1930. The other periods in which the index moved that high were in 1996, 1986 and 1955. This was during three of the strongest bull markets in history.
 
"There's really two key takeaways," said Wald. "One, even when you got to those high RSI readings, it was still followed by above-average returns. Two, the RSI indicator peaked at least a year ahead of the market on all those occasions."
 
In other words, the stock market kept going up after hitting the RSI 87 level, and it kept going up for quite a while.
 
Wald dusted off the history books. In 1996, the RSI hit 87 in June - from there to the market peak, the S&P 500 rose 128 percent. A decade earlier, the RSI reached similar levels and the S&P 500 proceeded to gain roughly 50 percent through to the bull market's high.
 
Going further back, in 1955, the RSI peaked at 88 in July and afterward the market gained around 15 percent through to the top of its bullish stretch.

 

It seems counter intuitive for the market to be so overbought and yet keep going up. But that is exactly what happened in these major bull market cycles.
 
The current bull market has run for nearly nine years and most analysts do not see an end in sight. It is the second-longest bull market in history, beaten only by the stretch from 1990 to 2000. Since the bottom in 2009, the S&P 500 has climbed roughly 320 percent. The 1990-2000 bull market rose 417 percent.
 
"Add it up using history as a guide, and how we see it is these overbought conditions are arguing against the top and instead for a continuation of the bull market," said Wald. He credits "broad-based internal breadth, cyclical leadership, and strong credit" as the main contributors to the markets' strength.
 
Bill Baruch, President of Blue Line Futures, is also bullish on the S&P 500 even as the equity market trades at its highest level in history.
 
"The market is not correcting. The question is, where's the next 1 percent to 2 percent? I believe the next 1 percent to 2 percent is higher," Baruch told "Trading Nation" on Monday. "I don't imagine getting any sort of correction until after March."
 
Baruch targets 2,847 for the S&P 500 for 2018, roughly flat with Tuesday's trading levels. Counting from the beginning of the year, Baruch's target suggests a more than 6 percent gain for the S&P 500 in 2018.
 
At 5T we have been studying this overbought condition for a few months. It has been easy to see the 87-level approaching and we couldn't help but wonder if it would be reached again. Well, it has.
 
We are inclined to agree with Wald and Baruch. The market seems to be headed higher. That is not to say we won't have corrections along the way. Baruch says that he does not expect a correction until after March. He doesn't say there won't be a correction.
 
We have said before that any significant correction will be bought. That remains our "base case" for 2018. In fact, we aren't waiting for the entire market to correct. Individual stocks have been getting hit, here and there, as sector rotation takes place. A few companies have been hit with large losses as a result of the recent tax reform and their shares have been taken down. We are trying to use circumstances like these to buy.
 
Neither sector rotation, nor temporary hits from one time tax reform have anything to do with the long-term performance of great companies. Therefore, we are buyers. We added to Johnson & Johnson today after a 4.5% decline yesterday. I can't remember a single day that there haven't been J&J products in our home. I don't imagine there ever will be a day. This company just keeps growing!
 
Wall Street has already had a remarkable run to begin the year. The S&P 500 is up 6 percent, the Dow also 6 percent and the Nasdaq nearly 9 percent for the year to date.
 
The consumer discretionary sector is the best performer of the S&P 500 year-to-date, while the telecom and utilities sectors are the worst performers.
 
REITS utilities, and other interest sensitive stocks are actually quite oversold. We are shopping in this market place too because we do not believe that long-term rates are headed significantly higher. It is still smart to shop in the bargain bin from time to time!
 
Look for stocks to move higher for the foreseeable future, albeit with corrections along the way. Dow 30,000 is not out of the question. Neither is S&P 500 3000. Those are not necessarily predictions, but it wouldn't surprise us one bit if we see those levels sometime in 2018.
 
All the best,


Paul Krsek
CEO
5T Wealth,LLC
(707) 603-2672 Office
(707) 486-7333 Cell
Paul@5TWealth.com 
 

aspiringnomad

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1757 on: January 24, 2018, 09:41:23 PM »

Ari Wald, head of technical analysis at Oppenheimer, told CNBC's "Trading Nation" on Monday that the S&P 500's 14-month relative strength index (RSI) surpassed the 87 level for the first time in nearly 22 years.
 
The relative strength index (RSI) is a charting tool used by every technical analyst in the world.

Ari Wald, head of technical analysis at Oppenheimer, told CNBC's "Trading Nation" on Monday that the S&P 500's 14-month Ouija board move index (OBMI) surpassed the 87 level for the first time in nearly 22 years.

The Ouija board move index (OBMI) is a predicting tool used by every junior high prom hopeful and technical analyst in the world.

Still Being

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1758 on: January 25, 2018, 07:46:06 AM »
« Last Edit: January 25, 2018, 12:40:12 PM by DS »

anisotropy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1759 on: January 25, 2018, 11:18:52 AM »
stuff


TL;DR : TOP IS IN

NOTE: I am not agreeing nor disagreeing with Paul Krsek.

Is your "TOP IS IN" your own opinion or what you think Paul Krsek is saying?
« Last Edit: January 25, 2018, 11:20:25 AM by anisotropy »

JAYSLOL

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1760 on: January 25, 2018, 11:41:16 AM »
stuff


TL;DR : TOP IS IN

NOTE: I am not agreeing nor disagreeing with Paul Krsek.

Is your "TOP IS IN" your own opinion or what you think Paul Krsek is saying?

More likely because it's just what we say here.  The Top is in!

dividendman

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1761 on: January 25, 2018, 11:58:50 AM »
The market is never falling by more than  5% again!! You heard it here first folks.

anisotropy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1762 on: January 25, 2018, 12:04:10 PM »
stuff


TL;DR : TOP IS IN

NOTE: I am not agreeing nor disagreeing with Paul Krsek.

Is your "TOP IS IN" your own opinion or what you think Paul Krsek is saying?

More likely because it's just what we say here.  The Top is in!

It's fine to express one's own opinion. Although I do find the ":" implies that DS thinks Krsek was saying that the top is in, even though Krsek clearly did not.

If that is the case, I believe this sort of blatant misrepresentation/misinformation should to be stopped and the post removed. If one can't sit through an article and process the info properly, then decides to claim the author had said the opposite of what was in the article, well seriously, L2R.

If that has nothing to do with the Krsek article, then say w/e, let's speculate together, it's fun.
« Last Edit: January 25, 2018, 12:07:21 PM by anisotropy »

sol

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1763 on: January 25, 2018, 12:09:40 PM »
The market is never falling by more than  5% again!! You heard it here first folks.

Hmmm, let's see...  2% market gains per week, times 52 weeks per year, means we should reach... HOLY SHIT BATMAN!

Yea, apparently the top is never in.  Everyone who got out of the market, at any time ever, royally screwed up.  At this rate, I'm buying an island for Christmas.

nereo

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1764 on: January 25, 2018, 12:34:14 PM »
The market is never falling by more than  5% again!! You heard it here first folks.

Hmmm, let's see...  2% market gains per week, times 52 weeks per year, means we should reach... HOLY SHIT BATMAN!

Yea, apparently the top is never in.  Everyone who got out of the market, at any time ever, royally screwed up.  At this rate, I'm buying an island for Christmas.
I'm pretty sure the British isles will be on sale right about that time...

Still Being

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1765 on: January 25, 2018, 12:42:50 PM »
stuff

TL;DR. TOP IS IN

It's fine to express one's own opinion. Although I do find the ":" implies that DS thinks Krsek was saying that the top is in, even though Krsek clearly did not.

If that is the case, I believe this sort of blatant misrepresentation/misinformation should to be stopped and the post removed. If one can't sit through an article and process the info properly, then decides to claim the author had said the opposite of what was in the article, well seriously, L2R.

If that has nothing to do with the Krsek article, then say w/e, let's speculate together, it's fun.

Lol. Y SO SRS? Updated the punctuation just for you!! xoxo.

Top is still in!

JAYSLOL

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1766 on: January 25, 2018, 12:43:52 PM »
And we had such a good streak of bacon-related financial advice and debate going, what's happened? 

Still Being

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1767 on: January 25, 2018, 12:55:57 PM »
And we had such a good streak of bacon-related financial advice and debate going, what's happened?

Yeah I didn't know we were allowed to be serious in this thread. *Shrugs* *eats emergency bacon bits from pocket*

dragoncar

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1768 on: January 25, 2018, 01:14:01 PM »
stuff


TL;DR : TOP IS IN

NOTE: I am not agreeing nor disagreeing with Paul Krsek.

Is your "TOP IS IN" your own opinion or what you think Paul Krsek is saying?

More likely because it's just what we say here.  The Top is in!

It's fine to express one's own opinion. Although I do find the ":" implies that DS thinks Krsek was saying that the top is in, even though Krsek clearly did not.

If that is the case, I believe this sort of blatant misrepresentation/misinformation should to be stopped and the post removed. If one can't sit through an article and process the info properly, then decides to claim the author had said the opposite of what was in the article, well seriously, L2R.

If that has nothing to do with the Krsek article, then say w/e, let's speculate together, it's fun.

IOW: top is in

anisotropy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1769 on: January 25, 2018, 01:33:43 PM »
lol fine I apologize for ruining the fun. Bacon is in (low sodium)!

Exflyboy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1770 on: January 25, 2018, 09:03:28 PM »
The market is never falling by more than  5% again!! You heard it here first folks.

Hmmm, let's see...  2% market gains per week, times 52 weeks per year, means we should reach... HOLY SHIT BATMAN!

Yea, apparently the top is never in.  Everyone who got out of the market, at any time ever, royally screwed up.  At this rate, I'm buying an island for Christmas.

I already made a down payment on mine..:)

JAYSLOL

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1771 on: January 25, 2018, 11:06:31 PM »
And we had such a good streak of bacon-related financial advice and debate going, what's happened?

Yeah I didn't know we were allowed to be serious in this thread. *Shrugs* *eats emergency bacon bits from pocket*

Consider upgrading to a full kit

Riff

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1772 on: January 26, 2018, 08:56:30 AM »
Quote
bacon-related financial advice

aboatguy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1773 on: January 26, 2018, 09:16:31 AM »
Topping the top! New SP500 intraday  top record set yesterday and another this morning, are we reaching the Tippety top, or is this just another thaw in the meltup? 

Still Being

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1774 on: January 26, 2018, 09:37:34 AM »
Topping the top! New SP500 intraday  top record set yesterday and another this morning, are we reaching the Tippety top, or is this just another thaw in the meltup?

Ohh Tippetiest of Tops is in for sure

retireatbirth

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1775 on: January 26, 2018, 10:23:12 AM »
In 1/(P - 2854) S&P 500 space, we are at the top.

aboatguy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1776 on: January 26, 2018, 10:31:54 AM »
In 1/(P - 2854) S&P 500 space, we are at the top.

Just hit 2855.03  new tippety toppety toppest top

Oh crap 2854.8   new bottom?
  just hit 2855.24  newer tippety toppety toppyest toppest top




I predict the market will go continue to go up, until it goes down and then it will bottom out and go up again.  It will repeat this cycle until long after I'm dead.

Mike
« Last Edit: January 26, 2018, 10:38:53 AM by aboatguy »

aboatguy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1777 on: January 26, 2018, 10:52:56 AM »
Now its 2857.75    I predict 2900 next week or a lower number , possibly much lower

JAYSLOL

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1778 on: January 26, 2018, 10:58:51 AM »
Now its 2857.75    I predict 2900 next week or a lower number , possibly much lower

If it does go much lower, I'll rebalance towards tactical bacon

BTDretire

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1779 on: January 26, 2018, 01:48:10 PM »
 I'm going to step out on a limb and say,
"The next top is in the future."

aspiringnomad

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1780 on: January 26, 2018, 02:43:54 PM »
I'm going to step out on a limb and say,
"The next top is in the future."


dougules

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1781 on: January 26, 2018, 03:42:05 PM »
In 1/(P - 2854) S&P 500 space, we are at the top.

Just hit 2855.03  new tippety toppety toppest top

Oh crap 2854.8   new bottom?
  just hit 2855.24  newer tippety toppety toppyest toppest top




I predict the market will go continue to go up, until it goes down and then it will bottom out and go up again.  It will repeat this cycle until long after I'm dead.

Mike

Don't you know that automation is going to completely change everything?

Prairie Stash

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1782 on: January 26, 2018, 03:48:12 PM »
In 1/(P - 2854) S&P 500 space, we are at the top.

Just hit 2855.03  new tippety toppety toppest top

Oh crap 2854.8   new bottom?
  just hit 2855.24  newer tippety toppety toppyest toppest top




I predict the market will go continue to go up, until it goes down and then it will bottom out and go up again.  It will repeat this cycle until long after I'm dead.

Mike

Don't you know that automation is going to completely change everything?
Will they automate bacon for me? I predict a deliciously short future.

dougules

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1783 on: January 26, 2018, 03:50:14 PM »
In 1/(P - 2854) S&P 500 space, we are at the top.

Just hit 2855.03  new tippety toppety toppest top

Oh crap 2854.8   new bottom?
  just hit 2855.24  newer tippety toppety toppyest toppest top




I predict the market will go continue to go up, until it goes down and then it will bottom out and go up again.  It will repeat this cycle until long after I'm dead.

Mike

Don't you know that automation is going to completely change everything?
Will they automate bacon for me? I predict a deliciously short future.

I wouldn't short automated bacon.  I don't think it's anywhere close to its top.

Manual bacon, though, TOP IS IN!

aboatguy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1784 on: January 26, 2018, 04:31:46 PM »
DOW NASDAQ and  S P500 record highs today

The meltup is really thawing well!


retireatbirth

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1785 on: January 26, 2018, 04:58:20 PM »
2008 is going to look like the mini recession compared to what is going to happen on Monday. Top is in.

Retire-Canada

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1786 on: January 26, 2018, 05:22:22 PM »


Melt! Melt! Melt! Up! Up! Up! Top! Top! Top!

Exflyboy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1787 on: January 26, 2018, 06:19:04 PM »
2008 is going to look like the mini recession compared to what is going to happen on Monday. Top is in.

Robert Schiller said the market was like 1928.. So we have 1 year and 9 months before the big dump..:)

dragoncar

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1788 on: January 26, 2018, 08:43:00 PM »
In 1/(P - 2854) S&P 500 space, we are at the top.

Just hit 2855.03  new tippety toppety toppest top

Oh crap 2854.8   new bottom?
  just hit 2855.24  newer tippety toppety toppyest toppest top




I predict the market will go continue to go up, until it goes down and then it will bottom out and go up again.  It will repeat this cycle until long after I'm dead.

Mike

Don't you know that automation is going to completely change everything?
Will they automate bacon for me? I predict a deliciously short future.

I wouldn't short automated bacon.  I don't think it's anywhere close to its top.

Manual bacon, though, TOP IS IN!

Still plenty of room for automation in bacon: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_tvx_CKB7uI

I'm actually working on an app to disrupt this space

Radagast

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1789 on: January 26, 2018, 09:36:46 PM »

BTDretire

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1790 on: January 27, 2018, 12:58:10 PM »
In 1/(P - 2854) S&P 500 space, we are at the top.

Just hit 2855.03  new tippety toppety toppest top

Oh crap 2854.8   new bottom?
  just hit 2855.24  newer tippety toppety toppyest toppest top




I predict the market will go continue to go up, until it goes down and then it will bottom out and go up again.  It will repeat this cycle until long after I'm dead.

Mike

Don't you know that automation is going to completely change everything?
Will they automate bacon for me? I predict a deliciously short future.

I wouldn't short automated bacon.  I don't think it's anywhere close to its top.

Manual bacon, though, TOP IS IN!

Automated bacon is here.
« Last Edit: January 27, 2018, 01:02:32 PM by BTDretire »

Mighty-Dollar

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1791 on: January 27, 2018, 02:28:17 PM »
The top was in April 17, 2017???? Somebody has been missing out on some NICE gains! 
2008 is going to look like the mini recession compared to what is going to happen on Monday. Top is in.

Robert Schiller said the market was like 1928.. So we have 1 year and 9 months before the big dump..:)
The Schiller PE ratio is antiquated. The last 20 years is the new normal. We're over valued but not nose bleed territory. Some of the best gains occur in the last few years of bull markets.

Cycling Stache

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1792 on: January 27, 2018, 03:02:13 PM »
The top was in April 17, 2017???? Somebody has been missing out on some NICE gains! 
2008 is going to look like the mini recession compared to what is going to happen on Monday. Top is in.

Robert Schiller said the market was like 1928.. So we have 1 year and 9 months before the big dump..:)

The Schiller PE ratio is antiquated. The last 20 years is the new normal.

"This time it's different!"

Be careful with that logic.  It's cost a lot of people a lot of money!

bacchi

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1793 on: January 28, 2018, 12:23:26 AM »
The top was in April 17, 2017???? Somebody has been missing out on some NICE gains! 
2008 is going to look like the mini recession compared to what is going to happen on Monday. Top is in.

Robert Schiller said the market was like 1928.. So we have 1 year and 9 months before the big dump..:)

The Schiller PE ratio is antiquated. The last 20 years is the new normal.

"This time it's different!"

Be careful with that logic.  It's cost a lot of people a lot of money!

CAPE will drop considerably when the 2008 earnings fall off this year. That's not to say that we won't have a tumble but CAPE isn't a perfect indicator, especially when there was a recession in the older half of the 10 year look back period.

dragoncar

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1794 on: January 28, 2018, 12:38:27 AM »
The top was in April 17, 2017???? Somebody has been missing out on some NICE gains! 
2008 is going to look like the mini recession compared to what is going to happen on Monday. Top is in.

Robert Schiller said the market was like 1928.. So we have 1 year and 9 months before the big dump..:)

The Schiller PE ratio is antiquated. The last 20 years is the new normal.

"This time it's different!"

Be careful with that logic.  It's cost a lot of people a lot of money!

CAPE will drop considerably when the 2008 earnings fall off this year. That's not to say that we won't have a tumble but CAPE isn't a perfect indicator, especially when there was a recession in the older half of the 10 year look back period.


Radagast

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1795 on: January 28, 2018, 01:24:48 AM »
The top was in April 17, 2017???? Somebody has been missing out on some NICE gains! 
2008 is going to look like the mini recession compared to what is going to happen on Monday. Top is in.

Robert Schiller said the market was like 1928.. So we have 1 year and 9 months before the big dump..:)

The Schiller PE ratio is antiquated. The last 20 years is the new normal.

"This time it's different!"

Be careful with that logic.  It's cost a lot of people a lot of money!

CAPE will drop considerably when the 2008 earnings fall off this year. That's not to say that we won't have a tumble but CAPE isn't a perfect indicator, especially when there was a recession in the older half of the 10 year look back period.
Using the data from multpl.com, I guess removing 2008 from the data set will probably notch PE10 down by less than a point ie. from 35 to 34.4 or something if price and earnings were level for the rest of the year. The numerator (which is Latin for "number eight-er") has a far more powerful effect.

rab-bit

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1796 on: January 28, 2018, 07:31:44 AM »
The top was in April 17, 2017???? Somebody has been missing out on some NICE gains! 
2008 is going to look like the mini recession compared to what is going to happen on Monday. Top is in.

Robert Schiller said the market was like 1928.. So we have 1 year and 9 months before the big dump..:)

The Schiller PE ratio is antiquated. The last 20 years is the new normal.

"This time it's different!"

Be careful with that logic.  It's cost a lot of people a lot of money!

CAPE will drop considerably when the 2008 earnings fall off this year. That's not to say that we won't have a tumble but CAPE isn't a perfect indicator, especially when there was a recession in the older half of the 10 year look back period.
Using the data from multpl.com, I guess removing 2008 from the data set will probably notch PE10 down by less than a point ie. from 35 to 34.4 or something if price and earnings were level for the rest of the year. The numerator (which is Latin for "number eight-er") has a far more powerful effect.

This makes sense, since the whole point of the CAPE is to smooth the earnings, so any one year (even a really bad year like 2008) should not have too large an effect. To me, this is a indication that the CAPE is working as intended.

bacchi

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1797 on: January 28, 2018, 02:55:01 PM »
The top was in April 17, 2017???? Somebody has been missing out on some NICE gains! 
2008 is going to look like the mini recession compared to what is going to happen on Monday. Top is in.

Robert Schiller said the market was like 1928.. So we have 1 year and 9 months before the big dump..:)

The Schiller PE ratio is antiquated. The last 20 years is the new normal.

"This time it's different!"

Be careful with that logic.  It's cost a lot of people a lot of money!

CAPE will drop considerably when the 2008 earnings fall off this year. That's not to say that we won't have a tumble but CAPE isn't a perfect indicator, especially when there was a recession in the older half of the 10 year look back period.
Using the data from multpl.com, I guess removing 2008 from the data set will probably notch PE10 down by less than a point ie. from 35 to 34.4 or something if price and earnings were level for the rest of the year. The numerator (which is Latin for "number eight-er") has a far more powerful effect.

This makes sense, since the whole point of the CAPE is to smooth the earnings, so any one year (even a really bad year like 2008) should not have too large an effect. To me, this is a indication that the CAPE is working as intended.

http://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-earnings/table

I see over a 3 point drop, or nearly 10%. 2008 earnings were ~17.5 and 9/2017 earnings were 106.95. If we have another 107 replace the 17, it'll be larger than a 0.6 drop.


wienerdog

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1798 on: January 28, 2018, 03:11:32 PM »
Who ever did the graph over time and put Thorstach's comments on there should update it.  Seems we haven't heard anything from them for a while.  I bet the graph shows why.

rab-bit

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #1799 on: January 28, 2018, 06:41:53 PM »
The top was in April 17, 2017???? Somebody has been missing out on some NICE gains! 
2008 is going to look like the mini recession compared to what is going to happen on Monday. Top is in.

Robert Schiller said the market was like 1928.. So we have 1 year and 9 months before the big dump..:)

The Schiller PE ratio is antiquated. The last 20 years is the new normal.

"This time it's different!"

Be careful with that logic.  It's cost a lot of people a lot of money!

CAPE will drop considerably when the 2008 earnings fall off this year. That's not to say that we won't have a tumble but CAPE isn't a perfect indicator, especially when there was a recession in the older half of the 10 year look back period.
Using the data from multpl.com, I guess removing 2008 from the data set will probably notch PE10 down by less than a point ie. from 35 to 34.4 or something if price and earnings were level for the rest of the year. The numerator (which is Latin for "number eight-er") has a far more powerful effect.

This makes sense, since the whole point of the CAPE is to smooth the earnings, so any one year (even a really bad year like 2008) should not have too large an effect. To me, this is a indication that the CAPE is working as intended.

http://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-earnings/table

I see over a 3 point drop, or nearly 10%. 2008 earnings were ~17.5 and 9/2017 earnings were 106.95. If we have another 107 replace the 17, it'll be larger than a 0.6 drop.

You're right, I took the previous poster's statement as fact without checking the numbers myself. When I do the calculation, I get the PE10 dropping from 34.75 to ~31.3, so about 10% lower as you said, but still higher than any time other than the tech bubble peak.
« Last Edit: January 28, 2018, 06:44:59 PM by rab »