Post 939 was October tenth. You predicted that a nine year long bull market would last at least three more months? Yea, you're a real clairvoyant.
What about the rest of your predictions in that post? Where's that labor anomaly? Where's is the stagnating growth you were so sure would sour the market?
Forgive me if I don't rush out to buy your newsletter.
I will copy and paste my oct10th post here, and go over it with you:
Minions,
Your illustrious seer in these uncertain times has returned. Gather around, stay awhile, and listen to my sermon.
Dark is the sky on the horizon and a violent torrent stirs beneath the sea! Do you not see the foamy surface?
Six months ago, on this very same thread, I, the great seer, with the gift of foresight, had proclaimed:
"meh, the econ growth is slowing (has been for almost 6 months now, still growing but rate has slowed), but historically that's when the crowd starts rushing in and pushing market to new highs, it's going to be glorious. " -- April 26th
And what a glorious six months it had been! 15% gain EM! 10% gain s&p! 1% gain garbage tsx! The great seer spoke of truth and only truth!
The econ growth continues to slow but the residual momentum is still significant. The current inflation down"cycle" is likely to end in the next few months, the so called wage growth anomaly will finally be spotted and recognized, which is likely lead to our eventual undoing. I get more bearish every passing day regarding the fundamentals, but you need not trouble yourselves with the burdens only the great can carry, for the burdens are heavy indeed.
There is a famous saying (or did I just make it up), 50% of the gains in every bull run occur in the last 10% of the time, AND WE ARE NEARLY THERE (time-wise)! Small dips may come until then but do not weaken your resolve. Bathe in the warmth of the sun, for you are the faithful, the righteous, the strong!
A great and terrible storm is on the horizon, it is coming. When the time comes, I will be the beacon of light you should look for. The great seer speak truth and only truth. These words are true.
Alright sermon is over, go back to work and create some value for me, minions.
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1. Please do not mark the beginning of a bull market immediately after the low of the preceding bear market. The definition is not clear cut I understand, but bull markets should only be recognized after it has surpassed previous highs. Ie, the current bull market actually began in 2013, making it about 5 years old. Not important to the current topic at hand just thought I would mention it, because I am a dic.
2. Bull market lasting three more months is
very different from a melt up scenario that was mentioned in the post:
50% of the gains in every bull run occur in the last 10% of the time, AND WE ARE NEARLY THERE (time-wise)! To quantify it, the s&p has gone up ~9% in the last 3 months, and it appears to be accelerating. When was the last time the s&p moved that much in 3 months and was
not recovering from a drop? To be honest I don't know the answer myself, I should look at the stats. Perhaps we could both look at it?
Edit: My instincts tell me it was in 2013, could be wrong.
Edit2: Checked data, it was in 2013.
3. I am assuming you meant "wage growth anomaly" when you mentioned labor anomaly, otherwise I am not sure what you meant. The Atlanta Fed Wage tracker clocked the wage growth to be 3.2% by Nov 2017 (3MA), pretty crap, sorry to disappoint but it was enough to convince the Fed to step on the breaks in Dec. Or perhaps the Fed did not spot nor recognize any wage growth anomaly and just decided to break for other (no?) reasons.
4. Where's is the stagnating growth you were so sure would sour the market??
So two things here. Growth is slowing, whether you look at wage growth or some other measures. In fact, housing growth peaked in 2014, for example. As for souring the market, I said:
the econ growth is slowing (has been for almost 6 months now, still growing but rate has slowed), but
historically that's when the crowd starts rushing in and pushing market to new highs, it's going to be glorious.
If anything, I explicitly stated in April the slower expansion would signal a
higher market. Market sours not because of weakness, but from excessive strength. Counterintuitive right? But we are not rational, which is precisely why we should begin to look for (but not take) exits while we mingle with potential bagholders at this grand party.
Edit: I am actually quite annoyed about this, I have been one of the most bullish posters in this thread, explicitly stating not only was top not in, but a melt-up scenario was very likely. Yet people continue to think I am bearish?? Learn2Read much?
5. I have no newspaper to sell to you. In fact, don't ever buy those. Finally, I don't so much predict. I analyse and maybe plan accordingly, I will not always be right, and I am bound to screw up sometime.