Top is in

[Must_ache]

To be serious for just a moment - from a historical chart it looks like the Nikkei declined or was essentially flat until 2012, but has risen steadily for the last decade. I’d be interested in seeing what total returns look like for someone who spent the last 30 years making monthly contributions to it.

Coming right up ... this ignores any dividends and focuses solely on the stock price of the Nikkei 225.

Let's assume starting in January 1990 you invested 1,000/mo in the stock market.  Every year the amount you invest goes up by 3%, so that in 2023 you are investing $2,652.
You would invest a total of $684,805 and you would end up with 1,436,044.  Your rate of return over that time period would have been about 4.68%/yr.

In the last 10 years the index tripled to return to its mid-1990 pre-crash value, so your return on investments around that starting point would be close to zero.  Anything else starting below that ended up positive, but keep in mind there was a long wait and your return was likely negative for the first 15-20 years.

[afuera]

M.O.A.T.rendlines!

Is a new G.O.A.T M.O.A.T. on the horizon??

[Tyson]

M.O.A.T.rendlines!

Is a new G.O.A.T M.O.A.T. on the horizon??

I know we are living in the end times when real article titles are indistinguishable from The Onion article titles.

[markbike528CBX]

M.O.A.T.rendlines!

Is a new G.O.A.T M.O.A.T. on the horizon??

I know we are living in the end times when real article titles are indistinguishable from The Onion article titles.

Not quite what Tyson was meaning, but close.   Several SOMEONES thought the Onion was real.
https://www.cracked.com/article_34270_15-times-the-onion-was-mistaken-for-actual-news.html

[techwiz]

Top is in!

[BicycleB]

Top is in!

At last, clarity has returned

[Alternatepriorities]

I've been offline for like two months and the thread has barely moved! I figured surely I'd missed something exciting while building a shed, wood shed, and sauna multiplex... Atlas the construction top is in and winds of winter have returned.

[ChpBstrd]

I've been offline for like two months and the thread has barely moved! I figured surely I'd missed something exciting while building a shed, wood shed, and sauna multiplex... Atlas the construction top is in and winds of winter have returned.

The top was never going to be publicized, not even here, so that quiet period was when the top became in. Confirm by checking a 3 month chart of the stock markets.

[techwiz]

The top was never going to be publicized, not even here, so that quiet period was when the top became in. Confirm by checking a 3 month chart of the stock markets.

I thought most of this thread was about publicizing. 



Top is in!

[secondcor521]

Well, the VIX is over 15.

[SwordGuy]

Well, the VIX is over 15.

But are earnings a reality check?

Enquiring minds want to know!

[vand]

To be serious for just a moment - from a historical chart it looks like the Nikkei declined or was essentially flat until 2012, but has risen steadily for the last decade. I’d be interested in seeing what total returns look like for someone who spent the last 30 years making monthly contributions to it.

Coming right up ... this ignores any dividends and focuses solely on the stock price of the Nikkei 225.

Let's assume starting in January 1990 you invested 1,000/mo in the stock market.  Every year the amount you invest goes up by 3%, so that in 2023 you are investing $2,652.
You would invest a total of $684,805 and you would end up with 1,436,044.  Your rate of return over that time period would have been about 4.68%/yr.

In the last 10 years the index tripled to return to its mid-1990 pre-crash value, so your return on investments around that starting point would be close to zero.  Anything else starting below that ended up positive, but keep in mind there was a long wait and your return was likely negative for the first 15-20 years.

OTOH let's see how a Japanese retiree in 1990 with 100% Nikkei portfolio has fared..

[MustacheAndaHalf]

Fed Chair talks, market drops.

The top is not in for my SPY put options.

[ChpBstrd]

What if we've been reading this all wrong, and the "top" was in bonds?

Check the OP. It mentions the S&P but doesn't explicitly say what top we're talking about.

[ChpBstrd]

[Tyson]

For some reason, this comes to mind:

[GuitarStv]

Hopefully in the end the markets don't go off the rails as badly as Twin Peaks did.

[techwiz]

Hopefully in the end the markets don't go off the rails as badly as Twin Peaks did.

We will have to wait and see.


In this dimensional space the Top is always in!

[Wintergreen78]

What is going on with the Y axis on that chart?

[Monocle Money Mouth]

What is going on with the Y axis on that chart?

The top.

[Mr. Green]

As of market close today, the S&P 500 is 5.5% from the all-time high.

[EscapeVelocity2020]

As of market close today, the S&P 500 is 5.5% from the all-time high.

QQQ is less than 2% away from all time high!  Tech top is in, long live the top!!

[MrStash]

I haven't checked the forums in a few years. I can't believe this thread is still alive. :DDD

[Retire-Canada]

I haven't checked the forums in a few years. I can't believe this thread is still alive. :DDD

The Top is ALWAYS in!!!

[Glenstache]

I haven't checked the forums in a few years. I can't believe this thread is still alive. :DDD

The Top is ALWAYS in!!!

This may be the peak of this thread. It's all downhill from here.

[Wolfpack Mustachian]

I haven't checked the forums in a few years. I can't believe this thread is still alive. :DDD

The Top is ALWAYS in!!!

This may be the peak of this thread. It's all downhill from here.

It's nice to know in these times of uncertainty that we can always count on the top being in.

[techwiz]

I haven't checked the forums in a few years. I can't believe this thread is still alive. :DDD

The Top is ALWAYS in!!!

This may be the peak of this thread. It's all downhill from here.

It's nice to know in these times of uncertainty that we can always count on the top being in.

The Top is in!

[BicycleB]

It’s always surprising how each comment in this thread tops the last.

Whereas in the market itself, the top is already in!

[Goanywhere]

Surely the top is now in and the fall is imminent

[dividendman]

Fear is back, rates above 5, markets breaking down. SPY to follow, earnings will be a reality check.

[techwiz]

Fear is back, rates above 5, markets breaking down. SPY to follow, earnings will be a reality check.

Thorstach is that you?

[dividendman]

Fear is back, rates above 5, markets breaking down. SPY to follow, earnings will be a reality check.

Thorstach is that you?

Alas, it is not. I am just trying to channel His thoughts.

[Mr. Green]

The S&P closed today just 4.2% from the all-time high, and set a new top for this year. Kris Kringle rally is a go!

[MustacheAndaHalf]

Fear is back, rates above 5, markets breaking down. SPY to follow, earnings will be a reality check.

The market is greedy, not fearful.
https://edition.cnn.com/markets/fear-and-greed

Rates are only above 5% for those holding one year or less.
https://www.ustreasuryyieldcurve.com/

Markets are not "breaking down" when the S&P 500 rose 6.6% in a month.
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SPY?p=SPY

[secondcor521]

Fear is back, rates above 5, markets breaking down. SPY to follow, earnings will be a reality check.

The market is greedy, not fearful.
https://edition.cnn.com/markets/fear-and-greed

Rates are only above 5% for those holding one year or less.
https://www.ustreasuryyieldcurve.com/

Markets are not "breaking down" when the S&P 500 rose 6.6% in a month.
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SPY?p=SPY

You realize this thread has sort of become a running joke, right?

[SwordGuy]

[
You realize this thread has sort of a become one hell of a long-running joke, right?

Fixed that for you! ;)

[MustacheAndaHalf]

Fear is back, rates above 5, markets breaking down. SPY to follow, earnings will be a reality check.

The market is greedy, not fearful.
https://edition.cnn.com/markets/fear-and-greed

Rates are only above 5% for those holding one year or less.
https://www.ustreasuryyieldcurve.com/

Markets are not "breaking down" when the S&P 500 rose 6.6% in a month.
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SPY?p=SPY

You realize this thread has sort of become a running joke, right?

Fact checking top is in?

[Glenstache]

Serious replies to this thread make it worth keeping it alive, just for the meta factor.

[ChpBstrd]

Fear is back, rates above 5, markets breaking down. SPY to follow, earnings will be a reality check.

The market is greedy, not fearful.
https://edition.cnn.com/markets/fear-and-greed

Rates are only above 5% for those holding one year or less.
https://www.ustreasuryyieldcurve.com/

Markets are not "breaking down" when the S&P 500 rose 6.6% in a month.
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SPY?p=SPY

That's exactly what the Top would look like.

[ender]

[
You realize this thread has sort of a become one hell of a long-running joke, right?

Fixed that for you! ;)

how dare ye blaspheme the sacred top is in!

[EscapeVelocity2020]

[
You realize this thread has sort of a become one hell of a long-running joke, right?

Fixed that for you! ;)

how dare ye blaspheme the sacred top is in!

Looks like we're in for a Santa Claus bloodbath this year...  unless Thorstach delivers one last prophetic warning to get the markets up over the last Top

[ATtiny85]

[
You realize this thread has sort of a become one hell of a long-running joke, right?

Fixed that for you! ;)

how dare ye blaspheme the sacred top is in!

Looks like we're in for a Santa Claus bloodbath this year...  unless Thorstach delivers one last prophetic warning to get the markets up over the last Top

last Top, next Top, current Top. They all seem to be a blur to me and run together. Maybe there is truth in the last 500 posts here that tried to inform the doubters that there is but one Top, and it remains in.

[Glenstache]

If it's still spinning, the top is still in.

[ChpBstrd]

[
You realize this thread has sort of a become one hell of a long-running joke, right?

Fixed that for you! ;)

how dare ye blaspheme the sacred top is in!

Looks like we're in for a Santa Claus bloodbath this year...  unless Thorstach delivers one last prophetic warning to get the markets up over the last Top

last Top, next Top, current Top. They all seem to be a blur to me and run together. Maybe there is truth in the last 500 posts here that tried to inform the doubters that there is but one Top, and it remains in.

It is this poly-top-ism that is the blasphemy. @thorstach will send you all to hell, or at least cause your portfolios to experience below-average returns for a couple of years.

[Tyson]

[
You realize this thread has sort of a become one hell of a long-running joke, right?

Fixed that for you! ;)

how dare ye blaspheme the sacred top is in!

Looks like we're in for a Santa Claus bloodbath this year...  unless Thorstach delivers one last prophetic warning to get the markets up over the last Top

last Top, next Top, current Top. They all seem to be a blur to me and run together. Maybe there is truth in the last 500 posts here that tried to inform the doubters that there is but one Top, and it remains in.

It is this poly-top-ism that is the blasphemy. @thorstach will send you all to hell, or at least cause your portfolios to experience below-average returns for a couple of years.

Beware of false tops.

[Mr. Green]

4% from from ATH (the TOP) as of today's close!

[Alternatepriorities]

4% from from ATH (the TOP) as of today's close!

So now we follow the 4% rule?

[Zamboni]

4% is always the magic percentage. Alchemists all know: top is in.

[Wintergreen78]

4% is always the magic percentage. Alchemists all know: top is in.

9% from the inflation-adjusted top!

Alchemists are wrong once again.

[solon]

Starting to toppy. The S&P is still even higher now than it has been again since the last top.