Top is in

[obstinate]

I think this recent bout of volatility was a good litmus test for how much risk tolerance people have. I certainly learned I have less than I thought. I think the lesson learned from this is that international exposure is good and not something to be scoffed at.

I feel lucky that I had essentially zero temptation to sell. I thought at one point about reallocating about 10% into bonds, but even that I ultimately put aside. And this is with retirement looming in less than a month. We should be alright!

[41_swish]

I had no temptation to sell, but that's because I am still very early into the game

[HPstache]

S&P back up over 6K, at least for the moment.  Starting to feel a little toppie up in here!

[EscapeVelocity2020]

S&P back up over 6K, at least for the moment.  Starting to feel a little toppie up in here!

[aboatguy]

S&P back up over 6K, at least for the moment.  Starting to feel a little toppie up in here!

[Tyson]

When thorstach started this thread, S&P was at 2350.  It's at 6000 now.  I am sure glad I ignored the scary sounding technobabble in his first post and stayed invested. 

Why are humans so prone to falling for scare tactics.  Even when all history is showing that the fear is unfounded.  It's bizarre.

[tooqk4u22]

When thorstach started this thread, S&P was at 2350.  It's at 6000 now.  I am sure glad I ignored the scary sounding technobabble in his first post and stayed invested. 

Why are humans so prone to falling for scare tactics.  Even when all history is showing that the fear is unfounded.  It's bizarre.

That's about 14% annual return with dividends since then so pretty far above historical norms......so Top is In Now....sell sell sell!

[GuitarStv]

When thorstach started this thread, S&P was at 2350.  It's at 6000 now.  I am sure glad I ignored the scary sounding technobabble in his first post and stayed invested. 

Why are humans so prone to falling for scare tactics.  Even when all history is showing that the fear is unfounded.  It's bizarre.

Yep, and historical patterns often hold true.  There's a problem with relying that for your assumptions though - they don't necessarily capture when something fundamentally changes.  A turkey on a farm is raised from being a hatchling with loving care, seeing the farmer every day to get food.  Until the day he comes to wring it's neck.

[dividendman]

When thorstach started this thread, S&P was at 2350.  It's at 6000 now.  I am sure glad I ignored the scary sounding technobabble in his first post and stayed invested. 

Why are humans so prone to falling for scare tactics.  Even when all history is showing that the fear is unfounded.  It's bizarre.

Yep, and historical patterns often hold true.  There's a problem with relying that for your assumptions though - they don't necessarily capture when something fundamentally changes.  A turkey on a farm is raised from being a hatchling with loving care, seeing the farmer every day to get food.  Until the day he comes to wring it's neck.

Don't they chop the neck?

[dragoncar]

When thorstach started this thread, S&P was at 2350.  It's at 6000 now.  I am sure glad I ignored the scary sounding technobabble in his first post and stayed invested. 

Why are humans so prone to falling for scare tactics.  Even when all history is showing that the fear is unfounded.  It's bizarre.

Yep, and historical patterns often hold true.  There's a problem with relying that for your assumptions though - they don't necessarily capture when something fundamentally changes.  A turkey on a farm is raised from being a hatchling with loving care, seeing the farmer every day to get food.  Until the day he comes to wring it's neck.

Don't they chop the neck?

They cut off the top

[BicycleB]

When thorstach started this thread, S&P was at 2350.  It's at 6000 now.  I am sure glad I ignored the scary sounding technobabble in his first post and stayed invested. 

Why are humans so prone to falling for scare tactics.  Even when all history is showing that the fear is unfounded.  It's bizarre.

Yep, and historical patterns often hold true.  There's a problem with relying that for your assumptions though - they don't necessarily capture when something fundamentally changes.  A turkey on a farm is raised from being a hatchling with loving care, seeing the farmer every day to get food.  Until the day he comes to wring it's neck.

Don't they chop the neck?

They cut off the top

Ooooooooh!! Well played.

[41_swish]

@Tyson He said the VIX was above 15, oh how the times have changed... Regardless of that, just stick the course I guess. The U.S. Markets have gone on a wild ride. Heck, I was in high school when he posted that.

[techwiz]

When thorstach started this thread, S&P was at 2350.  It's at 6000 now.  I am sure glad I ignored the scary sounding technobabble in his first post and stayed invested. 

Why are humans so prone to falling for scare tactics.  Even when all history is showing that the fear is unfounded.  It's bizarre.

Yep, and historical patterns often hold true.  There's a problem with relying that for your assumptions though - they don't necessarily capture when something fundamentally changes.  A turkey on a farm is raised from being a hatchling with loving care, seeing the farmer every day to get food.  Until the day he comes to wring it's neck.

Don't they chop the neck?

They cut off the top

Ooooooooh!! Well played.

[EscapeVelocity2020]

I would argue that 227 pages and years of mocking ‘the top being in’ refuted the idea that people were falling for Thorstache-style fear tactics….  But in the end, the top is in!

[BicycleB]

I would argue that 227 pages and years of mocking ‘the top being in’ refuted the idea that people were falling for Thorstache-style fear tactics….  But in the end, the top is in!

Pages, shmages. 227 is nothing. Booms can last for a generation if we accept a few minor bear growls on the way, but then there's a decade or two of Very Bad Times. Which we won't recover from this time, as our prophet obviously foresaw.

Thorstach might have been a bit early, but when hammer falls, the doubters will see he was right all along. The top is so in!

[Tyson]

Predictions for the end of the world:

66 CE

1555 AD

1881 AD

2000 AD

2011 AD

2012 AD

2025 AD - this time we got it correct!

[markbike528CBX]

Predictions for the end of the world:

66 CE

1555 AD

1881 AD

2000 AD

2011 AD

2012 AD

2025 AD - this time we got it correct!

Citations needed :-)

2000 AD --- Y2K
2012 AD --- Mayan Calendar ???

I guess I coulda looked them up, because of course there is a list of Apocolypi Apocolypses.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_dates_predicted_for_apocalyptic_events

[Tyson]

Predictions for the end of the world:

66 CE

1555 AD

1881 AD

2000 AD

2011 AD

2012 AD

2025 AD - this time we got it correct!

Citations needed :-)

2000 AD --- Y2K
2012 AD --- Mayan Calendar ???

I guess I coulda looked them up, because of course there is a list of Apocolypi Apocolypses.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_dates_predicted_for_apocalyptic_events

Wow.  Pages and pages of epic fails.  Hahah.

[GuitarStv]

Predictions for the end of the world:

66 CE

1555 AD

1881 AD

2000 AD

2011 AD

2012 AD

2025 AD - this time we got it correct!

Citations needed :-)

2000 AD --- Y2K
2012 AD --- Mayan Calendar ???

I guess I coulda looked them up, because of course there is a list of Apocolypi Apocolypses.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_dates_predicted_for_apocalyptic_events

Wow.  Pages and pages of epic fails.  Hahah.

It's not logical to predict the end of the world.  If you're wrong, you look like an idiot.  If you're right, everyone's dead and you have nobody to brag to.

[41_swish]

Kind of seems like a win win, actually ;)

[Glenstache]

Predictions for the end of the world:

66 CE

1555 AD

1881 AD

2000 AD

2011 AD

2012 AD

2025 AD - this time we got it correct!

Citations needed :-)

2000 AD --- Y2K
2012 AD --- Mayan Calendar ???

I guess I coulda looked them up, because of course there is a list of Apocolypi Apocolypses.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_dates_predicted_for_apocalyptic_events

Wow.  Pages and pages of epic fails.  Hahah.

It's not logical to predict the end of the world.  If you're wrong, you look like an idiot.  If you're right, everyone's dead and you have nobody to brag to.

If you're right: Ha! Told you so!
If you're wrong: Live to be wrong again!

[dragoncar]

I would argue that 227 pages and years of mocking ‘the top being in’ refuted the idea that people were falling for Thorstache-style fear tactics….  But in the end, the top is in!

Pages, shmages. 227 is nothing. Booms can last for a generation if we accept a few minor bear growls on the way, but then there's a decade or two of Very Bad Times. Which we won't recover from this time, as our prophet obviously foresaw.

Thorstach might have been a bit early, but when hammer falls, the doubters will see he was right all along. The top is so in!

Looking forward to 227 pages of "bottom is in" posts by ehcatsroht

[aboatguy]

Hang on here it comes


Hopefully, I can still swim in my pool of ducats when the bottom is in...

[aboatguy]

  Going back up, More Ducats please!

[Tyson]

Filthy lucre.

[HPstache]

Knock, knock...

[techwiz]

Knock, knock...

Who's there?

Spoiler: show

Top is in!

[Exflyboy]

I don't know why you lot are mocking the great Thorstache.. I mean the top has actually been in for like 4 moths now!.. Its never going any higher and the dollar has been devalued in the meantime..

I'm going back to work before I end up broke!

[aboatguy]

From dreams of this...

to the reality of this

and this time it may not be a Pay Day

[aboatguy]

It's feeling TOPPY........where's Thorstach?

[41_swish]

I feel like we are in for a bull run for 6 months and then Trump will do some more crazy stuff and we will finish the year dead even

[Phenix]

I feel like we are in for a bull run for 6 months and then Trump will do some more crazy stuff and we will finish the year dead even

227 pages later and we're still fighting false prophecies like the above.

Top is in.

[ChpBstrd]

I feel like we are in for a bull run for 6 months and then Trump will do some more crazy stuff and we will finish the year dead even

227 pages later and we're still fighting false prophecies like the above.

Top is in.

They’re saying the sideways is in. This is new, but it is potentially compatible with the top being in, because the sideways is one form of the top.

[Tyson]

I feel like we are in for a bull run for 6 months and then Trump will do some more crazy stuff and we will finish the year dead even

227 pages later and we're still fighting false prophecies like the above.

Top is in.

They’re saying the sideways is in. This is new, but it is potentially compatible with the top being in, because the sideways is one form of the top.

Doesn't he know that Trump is a thorstach disciple?  His only purpose in office is to ensure the TOP IS IN.

[41_swish]

I feel like we are in for a bull run for 6 months and then Trump will do some more crazy stuff and we will finish the year dead even

227 pages later and we're still fighting false prophecies like the above.

Top is in.

They’re saying the sideways is in. This is new, but it is potentially compatible with the top being in, because the sideways is one form of the top.

Doesn't he know that Trump is a thorstach disciple?  His only purpose in office is to ensure the TOP IS IN.

Jesus Christ this thread was started when I was a junior in high school......

[Wolfpack Mustachian]

I feel like we are in for a bull run for 6 months and then Trump will do some more crazy stuff and we will finish the year dead even

227 pages later and we're still fighting false prophecies like the above.

Top is in.

They’re saying the sideways is in. This is new, but it is potentially compatible with the top being in, because the sideways is one form of the top.

Doesn't he know that Trump is a thorstach disciple?  His only purpose in office is to ensure the TOP IS IN.

Jesus Christ this thread was started when I was a junior in high school......

I really hope you didn't start investing your summer job income then and just put your money under your mattress. There's no telling how much money you would have lost.

[aboatguy]

The TOP IS IN!

[aboatguy]

SP 500 6,160.16,  Thorstach how did this happen?

[ChpBstrd]

SP 500 6,160.16,  Thorstach how did this happen?

Fake news. I bet you got that number from some biased, America-hating LAMEstream media source.

[41_swish]

WAKE UP HONEY NEW TOP JUST DROPPED

[aboatguy]

NASDAQ was 20,305.20 and now it's not.   Top was in....


Goodbye 20,305.20 it was wonderful to meet you and even though our time together was fleetingly short, I miss you already. 

[aboatguy]

The SP500 dropped too.

[techwiz]

Top is in!

Just waiting for the big splash at the end.....

[aboatguy]

TOP is in  however,  the S&P500 and NASDAQ
fell to new closing records

[Exflyboy]

Oh ye of little faith! Yes the new top might be in.. But now the US dollar is worth less than the monopoly money $1 bill.. So who's laughing now eh?

So when is Powell leaving so we can set a more reasonable FED inflation target of around say 25%?

[41_swish]

The U.S.'s main export is debt. If the U.S.D. ever looses it's place as the world reserve currency, this country is cooked.

[GuitarStv]

The U.S.'s main export is debt. If the U.S.D. ever looses it's place as the world reserve currency, this country is cooked.

I thought that Trump's plan was to end the US dollar as a reserve currency.  He hates trade.  He hates the federal reserve.  He loves unregulated crypto.

[aboatguy]

TOP was not in!

TOP is in!

[ChpBstrd]

The U.S.'s main export is debt. If the U.S.D. ever looses it's place as the world reserve currency, this country is cooked.

I thought that Trump's plan was to end the US dollar as a reserve currency.  He hates trade.  He hates the federal reserve.  He loves unregulated crypto.

I've been watching UDN, a fund that goes up as the US dollar goes down. You can buy call options on UDN to create a leveraged, low-downside portfolio insurance policy against the risk of dollar devaluation.

UDN is up +12.75% year to date, reflecting the inverse of the DXY's -10.41% performance.

In comparison, the S&P500 is up +4.77% YTD.

So the question is: Did investors in US assets grow their wealth? Or did dollar devaluation absorb all of the stock market's gains and then some, leaving even the most aggressively positioned investors with a loss of purchasing power parity?

Maybe the top is in in PPP terms, even if not yet in nominal terms.

Also: Is the stock market up because the US dollar is down? I.e. as the US dollar falls, companies raise prices and earn more of those dollars*, and as the whole earnings picture goes up in nominal terms, so do stock prices.

*for several reasons, including more attractive exports, margin multiplied by expanding costs for inputs such as imports, and for commodity producers relatively higher prices set by international markets.

[PhilB]

The U.S.'s main export is debt. If the U.S.D. ever looses it's place as the world reserve currency, this country is cooked.

I thought that Trump's plan was to end the US dollar as a reserve currency.  He hates trade.  He hates the federal reserve.  He loves unregulated crypto.

I've been watching UDN, a fund that goes up as the US dollar goes down. You can buy call options on UDN to create a leveraged, low-downside portfolio insurance policy against the risk of dollar devaluation.

UDN is up +12.75% year to date, reflecting the inverse of the DXY's -10.41% performance.

In comparison, the S&P500 is up +4.77% YTD.

So the question is: Did investors in US assets grow their wealth? Or did dollar devaluation absorb all of the stock market's gains and then some, leaving even the most aggressively positioned investors with a loss of purchasing power parity?

Maybe the top is in in PPP terms, even if not yet in nominal terms.

Also: Is the stock market up because the US dollar is down? I.e. as the US dollar falls, companies raise prices and earn more of those dollars*, and as the whole earnings picture goes up in nominal terms, so do stock prices.

*for several reasons, including more attractive exports, margin multiplied by expanding costs for inputs such as imports, and for commodity producers relatively higher prices set by international markets.

Not forgetting that many of your biggest companies are global, with much of their revenue not in USD.  Those revenue streams just went up in USD terms, therefore so did the USD stock valuation.