Author Topic: time to buy gold?  (Read 6302 times)

waltworks

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Re: time to buy gold?
« Reply #50 on: August 09, 2017, 06:17:40 PM »
Who said mustache wax on the crankshafts? I'm using gear oil on my mustache!

The liquid helium keeps freezing up the gear oil when I stop the engines to consult my oracle bones (another crucial step if you want to set up a proper mining rig) but nobody said mining was easy.

Where is the constarned triumphantly-thumbing-suspenders emoticon on this crap-lousy website?!?

Perhaps when I am richer than all of you I will allow you to dance for my entertainment while I fire a small black-powder pistol at your feet from my sedan chair. Just like Elon Musk does.

-W

TomTX

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Re: time to buy gold?
« Reply #51 on: August 09, 2017, 08:00:14 PM »
I don't want to come off as a shill, but etcCoin is pretty great!
-Only one can ever be mined. It will never lose value, and is worth literally billions of times as much as *all the bitcoin in existence*!
-Mining it requires hundreds of thousands of dollars of gear (cooling accomplished via liquid helium) and many terawatt-hours of electricity. There's no way to know if you've mined the coin or not, so it's really exciting!
-Cannot be used as a medium of exchange (except on Etsy).
-Technobabble/gibberish terminology is being invented as we speak for it to make you EVEN COOLER than the BitCoin guys!

-W

etcCoin is so last Thursday.  No one uses it anymore.  Well, since the fork, that is.  Get. with. the. times!

Since it's after the fork, shouldn't that be get with the tines?
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GuitarStv

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Re: time to buy gold?
« Reply #52 on: August 10, 2017, 01:34:16 PM »
Pshaw. EtcCoin is what is known as "Steampunk Kitsch Crypto", so it can only be mined with Babbage engines communicating via 300 baud modem on the AOL HelloKitty chat room.

I'm grooming my mustache (with the same oil I use for the gears and crankshafts!) right now just thinking of how rich I'll be.

Your post has wet my appetite for more stories from the world of crypto-steampunk economics.

But surely mustache wax should be used in crankshafts only as a last resort, while a man who oils his mustache with crankshaft grease is either very brave or has nothing left to lose.

 . . . or is going grey.



:P


neonlight

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Re: time to buy gold?
« Reply #54 on: August 10, 2017, 09:26:02 PM »
The time to buy gold is when the top is in.

And the question remains, when is the top?

JAYSLOL

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Re: time to buy gold?
« Reply #55 on: August 10, 2017, 10:11:14 PM »
The time to buy gold is when the top is in.

And the question remains, when is the top?

At some point during the course of every day I'll be checking the stocks app on my phone or I'll catch a glimpse of business news on the tv and ask myself "is this the top?", then i go back to work and fund all my different investment vehicles and forget about it the rest of the day.  I'll rebalance if theres a correction, to do anything else is against my best interests. 

Car Jack

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Re: time to buy gold?
« Reply #56 on: August 11, 2017, 01:12:07 PM »
A few years ago, I thought that gold or maybe silver would be good to invest in.  We have a wholesaler nearby and I want and got a good education on both.  After a few months, I bought $1000 in junk silver coins.  Maybe 6 months later, did it again.  I have a kid in college now and thought it's about time I dump this stuff.  What can I get for it today?  About $1500.  Great.

Look at gold over the same time period.  It was $1600 when I was considering buying.  Today, it's about $1290 (ask) which means they'll probably buy from me at $1250 or so.  Doesn't seem like much of an investment vs my 3 fund.

Reminds me of an old Steve Martin skit.  He bought into coal.  He bought 400 tons.  And he got a special deal where he only had to store 200 tons at his house.

effigy98

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Re: time to buy gold?
« Reply #57 on: August 11, 2017, 01:41:26 PM »
The golden butterfly might have worked in the past but will a portfolio with a low stock allocation do well in the future ? Personally I doubt it and think you've already missed that boat.

Maybe, maybe not. I wish I could tell the future. What I know is in the 90s I had a high stock allocation, it was destroyed as well as my tech job around the same time (ouch!). Then I stabilize after several years of shit jobs I had to take and I started investing in the market again. 2008 rolls around, HALF everything I have been working so hard for GONE... Panic sets in, self doubt, maybe even some fantasies about jumping off the narrows bridge. I pick myself up after the steamroller of life, and start diversifying into real estate even though everyone said that was stupid and risky (in 2009). I started holding too much real estate (3 properties) and starting getting back into stocks again. Around 2013 I start getting flashbacks of 1999 and 2006ish. I then read many books, blogs, etc like Larry's black swan book, permanent portfolio, and much of Tyler's research. I know I want volatility in parts of the portfolio but not the entire thing at once. These strategies work and hold 30 to 60% in stocks. I rather risk getting a little less gain so I can sleep at night next time I get layed off in my tech job at the same time the market is crashing. I now believe in a heavy dose of uncorrelated asset diversity, and gold is a healthy little portion.
« Last Edit: August 11, 2017, 01:45:04 PM by effigy98 »

steveo

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Re: time to buy gold?
« Reply #58 on: August 11, 2017, 05:41:02 PM »
The golden butterfly might have worked in the past but will a portfolio with a low stock allocation do well in the future ? Personally I doubt it and think you've already missed that boat.

Maybe, maybe not. I wish I could tell the future. What I know is in the 90s I had a high stock allocation, it was destroyed as well as my tech job around the same time (ouch!). Then I stabilize after several years of shit jobs I had to take and I started investing in the market again. 2008 rolls around, HALF everything I have been working so hard for GONE... Panic sets in, self doubt, maybe even some fantasies about jumping off the narrows bridge. I pick myself up after the steamroller of life, and start diversifying into real estate even though everyone said that was stupid and risky (in 2009). I started holding too much real estate (3 properties) and starting getting back into stocks again. Around 2013 I start getting flashbacks of 1999 and 2006ish. I then read many books, blogs, etc like Larry's black swan book, permanent portfolio, and much of Tyler's research. I know I want volatility in parts of the portfolio but not the entire thing at once. These strategies work and hold 30 to 60% in stocks. I rather risk getting a little less gain so I can sleep at night next time I get layed off in my tech job at the same time the market is crashing. I now believe in a heavy dose of uncorrelated asset diversity, and gold is a healthy little portion.

This is a risk profile question rather than a perfect asset allocation question. I completely agree with where you are coming from. I have bonds in my portfolio and I don't think it's the right approach to end up with the most amount of money but I do think it's the right approach for me based on wanting to avoid some volatility.

I have an issue with anyone assuming that the golden butterfly or the permanent portfolio with gold as a diversifying asset is going to work anywhere near like it has in the past.

Tyler

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Re: time to buy gold?
« Reply #59 on: August 11, 2017, 08:17:27 PM »
The golden butterfly might have worked in the past but will a portfolio with a low stock allocation do well in the future ? Personally I doubt it and think you've already missed that boat.

Maybe, maybe not. I wish I could tell the future. What I know is in the 90s I had a high stock allocation, it was destroyed as well as my tech job around the same time (ouch!). Then I stabilize after several years of shit jobs I had to take and I started investing in the market again. 2008 rolls around, HALF everything I have been working so hard for GONE... Panic sets in, self doubt, maybe even some fantasies about jumping off the narrows bridge. I pick myself up after the steamroller of life, and start diversifying into real estate even though everyone said that was stupid and risky (in 2009). I started holding too much real estate (3 properties) and starting getting back into stocks again. Around 2013 I start getting flashbacks of 1999 and 2006ish. I then read many books, blogs, etc like Larry's black swan book, permanent portfolio, and much of Tyler's research. I know I want volatility in parts of the portfolio but not the entire thing at once. These strategies work and hold 30 to 60% in stocks. I rather risk getting a little less gain so I can sleep at night next time I get layed off in my tech job at the same time the market is crashing. I now believe in a heavy dose of uncorrelated asset diversity, and gold is a healthy little portion.

That's really well said.  Thanks for sharing!

I think your story reflects what a lot of us have gone through, and it speaks to the real-world investing experience that is hard to capture in discussions that only focus on numbers.  I've come to the same place from my own journey, and am extremely happy with both the financial and emotional benefits of a truly diversified portfolio including gold and other assets. 
« Last Edit: August 11, 2017, 08:42:48 PM by Tyler »
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neonlight

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Re: time to buy gold?
« Reply #60 on: August 11, 2017, 11:36:10 PM »
The golden butterfly might have worked in the past but will a portfolio with a low stock allocation do well in the future ? Personally I doubt it and think you've already missed that boat.

Maybe, maybe not. I wish I could tell the future. What I know is in the 90s I had a high stock allocation, it was destroyed as well as my tech job around the same time (ouch!). Then I stabilize after several years of shit jobs I had to take and I started investing in the market again. 2008 rolls around, HALF everything I have been working so hard for GONE... Panic sets in, self doubt, maybe even some fantasies about jumping off the narrows bridge. I pick myself up after the steamroller of life, and start diversifying into real estate even though everyone said that was stupid and risky (in 2009). I started holding too much real estate (3 properties) and starting getting back into stocks again. Around 2013 I start getting flashbacks of 1999 and 2006ish. I then read many books, blogs, etc like Larry's black swan book, permanent portfolio, and much of Tyler's research. I know I want volatility in parts of the portfolio but not the entire thing at once. These strategies work and hold 30 to 60% in stocks. I rather risk getting a little less gain so I can sleep at night next time I get layed off in my tech job at the same time the market is crashing. I now believe in a heavy dose of uncorrelated asset diversity, and gold is a healthy little portion.

Thanks so much, while young I remember how 2000 tech bubble came crashing. My country experienced monetary devaluation and everything went to shit. I didn't feel it at that time cause I was still at school, and the only think I could relate to was the pair of NIKE Air shoes dad bought for me. Post-2000 it was almost 4 times more expensive - I was like shit! So I have to pay 4 times the price to get my Nike shoes ;)

I am in tech, and invest in big tech stocks. So after reading I should probably divest.
« Last Edit: August 12, 2017, 02:45:36 AM by neonlight »

neonlight

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Re: time to buy gold?
« Reply #61 on: August 12, 2017, 06:55:42 AM »
The golden butterfly might have worked in the past but will a portfolio with a low stock allocation do well in the future ? Personally I doubt it and think you've already missed that boat.

Maybe, maybe not. I wish I could tell the future. What I know is in the 90s I had a high stock allocation, it was destroyed as well as my tech job around the same time (ouch!). Then I stabilize after several years of shit jobs I had to take and I started investing in the market again. 2008 rolls around, HALF everything I have been working so hard for GONE... Panic sets in, self doubt, maybe even some fantasies about jumping off the narrows bridge. I pick myself up after the steamroller of life, and start diversifying into real estate even though everyone said that was stupid and risky (in 2009). I started holding too much real estate (3 properties) and starting getting back into stocks again. Around 2013 I start getting flashbacks of 1999 and 2006ish. I then read many books, blogs, etc like Larry's black swan book, permanent portfolio, and much of Tyler's research. I know I want volatility in parts of the portfolio but not the entire thing at once. These strategies work and hold 30 to 60% in stocks. I rather risk getting a little less gain so I can sleep at night next time I get layed off in my tech job at the same time the market is crashing. I now believe in a heavy dose of uncorrelated asset diversity, and gold is a healthy little portion.

This is a risk profile question rather than a perfect asset allocation question. I completely agree with where you are coming from. I have bonds in my portfolio and I don't think it's the right approach to end up with the most amount of money but I do think it's the right approach for me based on wanting to avoid some volatility.

I have an issue with anyone assuming that the golden butterfly or the permanent portfolio with gold as a diversifying asset is going to work anywhere near like it has in the past.

Just wondering. Why do you think gold will not work in the future like it has in the past?

TomTX

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Re: time to buy gold?
« Reply #62 on: August 12, 2017, 07:55:48 AM »
The golden butterfly might have worked in the past but will a portfolio with a low stock allocation do well in the future ? Personally I doubt it and think you've already missed that boat.

Maybe, maybe not. I wish I could tell the future. What I know is in the 90s I had a high stock allocation, it was destroyed as well as my tech job around the same time (ouch!). Then I stabilize after several years of shit jobs I had to take and I started investing in the market again. 2008 rolls around, HALF everything I have been working so hard for GONE... Panic sets in, self doubt, maybe even some fantasies about jumping off the narrows bridge. I pick myself up after the steamroller of life, and start diversifying into real estate even though everyone said that was stupid and risky (in 2009). I started holding too much real estate (3 properties) and starting getting back into stocks again. Around 2013 I start getting flashbacks of 1999 and 2006ish. I then read many books, blogs, etc like Larry's black swan book, permanent portfolio, and much of Tyler's research. I know I want volatility in parts of the portfolio but not the entire thing at once. These strategies work and hold 30 to 60% in stocks. I rather risk getting a little less gain so I can sleep at night next time I get layed off in my tech job at the same time the market is crashing. I now believe in a heavy dose of uncorrelated asset diversity, and gold is a healthy little portion.

You sound like a classic "buy high, sell low" panic investor.

A buy and hold investor in a diversified mutual fund wouldn't have been "destroyed" in 1999/2000, nor would they have lost half their investment in 2008. They would have just held through the downturn, possibly rebalancing from some bonds.

I went through both of those crashes, invested 100% in stocks. Learned my lesson about stock picking in the first one. Held, and came out basically OK because I had bought Intel, AMD, Cra - not stupid stuff like Pets.com whose only apparent real asset was a sock puppet. 2008 was irrelevant to me, all VTSAX. Buy and hold. Ignore the gyrations, keep collecting ~2%/year in dividends....
« Last Edit: August 12, 2017, 07:59:02 AM by TomTX »
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TomTX

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Re: time to buy gold?
« Reply #63 on: August 12, 2017, 08:00:36 AM »

I am in tech, and invest in big tech stocks. So after reading I should probably divest.

Yes. It's extra risky to have both your job and investments riding on the same sector.
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JAYSLOL

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Re: time to buy gold?
« Reply #64 on: August 12, 2017, 09:20:31 AM »

I am in tech, and invest in big tech stocks. So after reading I should probably divest.

Yes. It's extra risky to have both your job and investments riding on the same sector.

Yeah, it didn't end well for those Enron employees that had all of their savings in Enron stock

theolympians

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Re: time to buy gold?
« Reply #65 on: August 12, 2017, 10:01:12 AM »
Diversify.

GuitarStv

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Re: time to buy gold?
« Reply #66 on: August 12, 2017, 10:13:46 AM »
Diversify.

You mean like holding bullion, coins, and gold futures?  :P

steveo

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Re: time to buy gold?
« Reply #67 on: August 12, 2017, 07:45:59 PM »
The golden butterfly might have worked in the past but will a portfolio with a low stock allocation do well in the future ? Personally I doubt it and think you've already missed that boat.

Maybe, maybe not. I wish I could tell the future. What I know is in the 90s I had a high stock allocation, it was destroyed as well as my tech job around the same time (ouch!). Then I stabilize after several years of shit jobs I had to take and I started investing in the market again. 2008 rolls around, HALF everything I have been working so hard for GONE... Panic sets in, self doubt, maybe even some fantasies about jumping off the narrows bridge. I pick myself up after the steamroller of life, and start diversifying into real estate even though everyone said that was stupid and risky (in 2009). I started holding too much real estate (3 properties) and starting getting back into stocks again. Around 2013 I start getting flashbacks of 1999 and 2006ish. I then read many books, blogs, etc like Larry's black swan book, permanent portfolio, and much of Tyler's research. I know I want volatility in parts of the portfolio but not the entire thing at once. These strategies work and hold 30 to 60% in stocks. I rather risk getting a little less gain so I can sleep at night next time I get layed off in my tech job at the same time the market is crashing. I now believe in a heavy dose of uncorrelated asset diversity, and gold is a healthy little portion.

This is a risk profile question rather than a perfect asset allocation question. I completely agree with where you are coming from. I have bonds in my portfolio and I don't think it's the right approach to end up with the most amount of money but I do think it's the right approach for me based on wanting to avoid some volatility.

I have an issue with anyone assuming that the golden butterfly or the permanent portfolio with gold as a diversifying asset is going to work anywhere near like it has in the past.

Just wondering. Why do you think gold will not work in the future like it has in the past?

If you read some of Bernstein's stuff he makes some good points. Firstly you couldn't have utilised gold as per the historical returns that people utilise to justify their asset selection. So the returns that we mimic as part of the PP or GB to make up our current portfolio are not really justified.

Secondly once an asset is deemed as having certain properties you may actually have missed the boat. Now people buy gold thinking it's going to be a great diversifier but what may happen is that it performs differently than what it has in the past.

I do believe in diversifying your assets. I do believe in diversifying within asset classes. I also believe in minimising your costs. Those are really good principles to follow. I have an issue where people think that the GB or PP are going to provide returns similar to what they have in the past. They might because we can't predict the future but I think the risk is really really high that you have just overfitted the data without understanding the context of the historical returns and because you've done that you missed the general principles that I just mentioned and you are going to be disappointed in your portfolio over the longer term.

steveo

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Re: time to buy gold?
« Reply #68 on: August 12, 2017, 07:48:03 PM »
The golden butterfly might have worked in the past but will a portfolio with a low stock allocation do well in the future ? Personally I doubt it and think you've already missed that boat.

Maybe, maybe not. I wish I could tell the future. What I know is in the 90s I had a high stock allocation, it was destroyed as well as my tech job around the same time (ouch!). Then I stabilize after several years of shit jobs I had to take and I started investing in the market again. 2008 rolls around, HALF everything I have been working so hard for GONE... Panic sets in, self doubt, maybe even some fantasies about jumping off the narrows bridge. I pick myself up after the steamroller of life, and start diversifying into real estate even though everyone said that was stupid and risky (in 2009). I started holding too much real estate (3 properties) and starting getting back into stocks again. Around 2013 I start getting flashbacks of 1999 and 2006ish. I then read many books, blogs, etc like Larry's black swan book, permanent portfolio, and much of Tyler's research. I know I want volatility in parts of the portfolio but not the entire thing at once. These strategies work and hold 30 to 60% in stocks. I rather risk getting a little less gain so I can sleep at night next time I get layed off in my tech job at the same time the market is crashing. I now believe in a heavy dose of uncorrelated asset diversity, and gold is a healthy little portion.

You sound like a classic "buy high, sell low" panic investor.

A buy and hold investor in a diversified mutual fund wouldn't have been "destroyed" in 1999/2000, nor would they have lost half their investment in 2008. They would have just held through the downturn, possibly rebalancing from some bonds.

I went through both of those crashes, invested 100% in stocks. Learned my lesson about stock picking in the first one. Held, and came out basically OK because I had bought Intel, AMD, Cra - not stupid stuff like Pets.com whose only apparent real asset was a sock puppet. 2008 was irrelevant to me, all VTSAX. Buy and hold. Ignore the gyrations, keep collecting ~2%/year in dividends....

Personally I don't have the balls to go 100% stocks but I can see the logic behind it. It's going to be the best performing asset because it's companies making profits. Yes it's tied to the economy but over time good companies survive and make money.

If you can hold stocks long term you should do pretty well.

TomTX

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Re: time to buy gold?
« Reply #69 on: August 12, 2017, 08:13:45 PM »
The golden butterfly might have worked in the past but will a portfolio with a low stock allocation do well in the future ? Personally I doubt it and think you've already missed that boat.

Maybe, maybe not. I wish I could tell the future. What I know is in the 90s I had a high stock allocation, it was destroyed as well as my tech job around the same time (ouch!). Then I stabilize after several years of shit jobs I had to take and I started investing in the market again. 2008 rolls around, HALF everything I have been working so hard for GONE... Panic sets in, self doubt, maybe even some fantasies about jumping off the narrows bridge. I pick myself up after the steamroller of life, and start diversifying into real estate even though everyone said that was stupid and risky (in 2009). I started holding too much real estate (3 properties) and starting getting back into stocks again. Around 2013 I start getting flashbacks of 1999 and 2006ish. I then read many books, blogs, etc like Larry's black swan book, permanent portfolio, and much of Tyler's research. I know I want volatility in parts of the portfolio but not the entire thing at once. These strategies work and hold 30 to 60% in stocks. I rather risk getting a little less gain so I can sleep at night next time I get layed off in my tech job at the same time the market is crashing. I now believe in a heavy dose of uncorrelated asset diversity, and gold is a healthy little portion.

You sound like a classic "buy high, sell low" panic investor.

A buy and hold investor in a diversified mutual fund wouldn't have been "destroyed" in 1999/2000, nor would they have lost half their investment in 2008. They would have just held through the downturn, possibly rebalancing from some bonds.

I went through both of those crashes, invested 100% in stocks. Learned my lesson about stock picking in the first one. Held, and came out basically OK because I had bought Intel, AMD, Cra - not stupid stuff like Pets.com whose only apparent real asset was a sock puppet. 2008 was irrelevant to me, all VTSAX. Buy and hold. Ignore the gyrations, keep collecting ~2%/year in dividends....

Personally I don't have the balls to go 100% stocks but I can see the logic behind it. It's going to be the best performing asset because it's companies making profits. Yes it's tied to the economy but over time good companies survive and make money.

If you can hold stocks long term you should do pretty well.

No need for everyone to go 100% stocks, 80/20 or 70/30 is fine too, if you can stick to your planned asset allocation. Broad based, low-cost mutual funds or ETFs.
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steveo

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Re: time to buy gold?
« Reply #70 on: August 12, 2017, 08:22:35 PM »
The golden butterfly might have worked in the past but will a portfolio with a low stock allocation do well in the future ? Personally I doubt it and think you've already missed that boat.

Maybe, maybe not. I wish I could tell the future. What I know is in the 90s I had a high stock allocation, it was destroyed as well as my tech job around the same time (ouch!). Then I stabilize after several years of shit jobs I had to take and I started investing in the market again. 2008 rolls around, HALF everything I have been working so hard for GONE... Panic sets in, self doubt, maybe even some fantasies about jumping off the narrows bridge. I pick myself up after the steamroller of life, and start diversifying into real estate even though everyone said that was stupid and risky (in 2009). I started holding too much real estate (3 properties) and starting getting back into stocks again. Around 2013 I start getting flashbacks of 1999 and 2006ish. I then read many books, blogs, etc like Larry's black swan book, permanent portfolio, and much of Tyler's research. I know I want volatility in parts of the portfolio but not the entire thing at once. These strategies work and hold 30 to 60% in stocks. I rather risk getting a little less gain so I can sleep at night next time I get layed off in my tech job at the same time the market is crashing. I now believe in a heavy dose of uncorrelated asset diversity, and gold is a healthy little portion.

You sound like a classic "buy high, sell low" panic investor.

A buy and hold investor in a diversified mutual fund wouldn't have been "destroyed" in 1999/2000, nor would they have lost half their investment in 2008. They would have just held through the downturn, possibly rebalancing from some bonds.

I went through both of those crashes, invested 100% in stocks. Learned my lesson about stock picking in the first one. Held, and came out basically OK because I had bought Intel, AMD, Cra - not stupid stuff like Pets.com whose only apparent real asset was a sock puppet. 2008 was irrelevant to me, all VTSAX. Buy and hold. Ignore the gyrations, keep collecting ~2%/year in dividends....

Personally I don't have the balls to go 100% stocks but I can see the logic behind it. It's going to be the best performing asset because it's companies making profits. Yes it's tied to the economy but over time good companies survive and make money.

If you can hold stocks long term you should do pretty well.

No need for everyone to go 100% stocks, 80/20 or 70/30 is fine too, if you can stick to your planned asset allocation. Broad based, low-cost mutual funds or ETFs.

I agree. Some bonds are probably fine. Well diversified low cost index funds and simply stocks/bonds as per your risk profile is the safest bet.

I usually add a little sub-point and that is if you have a WR less than 4% then it's okay to put some of that into a commodity index fund or gold but the more I think about that the more I realise it's probably stupid. You probably don't need the extra diversification and it's probably going to be a drag on your overall returns. So if you want to save up more why not just add more to your existing asset allocation or put more into bonds or cash.
« Last Edit: August 12, 2017, 08:36:56 PM by steveo »

gerardc

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Re: time to buy gold?
« Reply #71 on: August 12, 2017, 10:02:03 PM »
Just curious... When you buy gold, do you get actual gold bars in your basement, or some kind of "certificate for buying gold" BS from a financial institution or reserve?

TomTX

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Re: time to buy gold?
« Reply #72 on: August 13, 2017, 08:46:16 AM »
Just curious... When you buy gold, do you get actual gold bars in your basement, or some kind of "certificate for buying gold" BS from a financial institution or reserve?

Either. I suspect most advocates here are the "certificate" route.
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neonlight

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Re: time to buy gold?
« Reply #73 on: August 13, 2017, 08:59:08 AM »
Just curious... When you buy gold, do you get actual gold bars in your basement, or some kind of "certificate for buying gold" BS from a financial institution or reserve?

Either. I suspect most advocates here are the "certificate" route.

For the "certificate" route, which are Mustachian's preferred offerings?

JAYSLOL

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Re: time to buy gold?
« Reply #74 on: August 13, 2017, 09:38:44 AM »
Just curious... When you buy gold, do you get actual gold bars in your basement, or some kind of "certificate for buying gold" BS from a financial institution or reserve?

Gold in the basement route for me, but i don't have a lot, just 2 coins which are 1/2 ounce each so it's pretty easy to find a good hiding spot for those.  I have a couple dozen silver rounds too, but even when you add those, i could put everything in the tape slot of an old vcr (no, thats not where they are hidden, but similar idea)

Tyler

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Re: time to buy gold?
« Reply #75 on: August 13, 2017, 10:06:55 AM »
For the "certificate" route, which are Mustachian's preferred offerings?

The easiest way to add gold to your portfolio is to purchase shares in a gold ETF like GLD, IAU, or SGOL.  I personally like IAU because of its low expense ratio.
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Laserjet3051

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Re: time to buy gold?
« Reply #76 on: August 13, 2017, 10:45:02 AM »
Keep in mind, that "paper" gold is a far cry from real, physical gold; neither of which I possess or plan to purchase. Self-sufficiency, along with a good cache of water, food, and bullets, would go a lot further if the SHTF or it's TEOTWAWKI.

FLBiker

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Re: time to buy gold?
« Reply #77 on: August 14, 2017, 08:19:55 AM »
Keep in mind, that "paper" gold is a far cry from real, physical gold; neither of which I possess or plan to purchase. Self-sufficiency, along with a good cache of water, food, and bullets, would go a lot further if the SHTF or it's TEOTWAWKI.

I've always felt this way whenever anyone brings up gold.  A lot of the pro-gold talk seems to be kind of prepper-y (and I say this as a recovering quasi-prepper) which just doesn't make any sense to me.  If the SHTF, who care about gold?  I'd much rather have food, water, fire, etc.  I've always felt that gold can only have value when things are going pretty good (at least for some of the people) because it is fundamentally useless.

tyort1

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Re: time to buy gold?
« Reply #78 on: August 14, 2017, 10:42:59 AM »
Keep in mind, that "paper" gold is a far cry from real, physical gold; neither of which I possess or plan to purchase. Self-sufficiency, along with a good cache of water, food, and bullets, would go a lot further if the SHTF or it's TEOTWAWKI.

I've always felt this way whenever anyone brings up gold.  A lot of the pro-gold talk seems to be kind of prepper-y (and I say this as a recovering quasi-prepper) which just doesn't make any sense to me.  If the SHTF, who care about gold?  I'd much rather have food, water, fire, etc.  I've always felt that gold can only have value when things are going pretty good (at least for some of the people) because it is fundamentally useless.

Agreed - food, shelter, water and the ability to forage, hunt or farm.  And the ability to find other people to tribe up with.  Strength in numbers and all that.  But IMO the best guard against SHTF is being rich already, and having the ability to move away from wherever things are falling apart.  But I do find preppers amusing, since we're one of the greatest periods of prosperity in all of history.
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ysette9

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Re: time to buy gold?
« Reply #79 on: August 14, 2017, 10:54:33 AM »
I'm curious about how gold is supposed to work logistically as a portfolio stabilizer. Say things really do go south: what do you do? Do you pull out a gold coin and go to the nearest gold hawker/pawn shop and try to get something for it, hoping to not get too screwed in the process or robbed on the way to the store? If things really go south and the foundations of society are collapsing, how do you use gold currency? Do you have a precise mechanical balance to weigh the gold the tools to cut it down into small enough chunks to facilitate transactions, and the physical muscle to ensure you can stay safe while doing that? It all sounds pretty implausible to me frankly.
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Car Jack

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Re: time to buy gold?
« Reply #80 on: August 14, 2017, 11:51:09 AM »
I'm curious about how gold is supposed to work logistically as a portfolio stabilizer. Say things really do go south: what do you do? Do you pull out a gold coin and go to the nearest gold hawker/pawn shop and try to get something for it, hoping to not get too screwed in the process or robbed on the way to the store? If things really go south and the foundations of society are collapsing, how do you use gold currency? Do you have a precise mechanical balance to weigh the gold the tools to cut it down into small enough chunks to facilitate transactions, and the physical muscle to ensure you can stay safe while doing that? It all sounds pretty implausible to me frankly.

I was curious about this myself and brought some of my silver coins to a coin show.  I first checked the APMEX price to have something to base from.  Well, the coin dealers all had very similar offers.  They were all about 75% of what APMEX would give me.  So that's not the way to go.  We have to remember that buying physical silver and gold comes with costs when you buy and costs when you sell.  On top of that, if you make a profit when you sell, you're supposed to pay ordinary income on these "collectibles". 

koshtra

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Re: time to buy gold?
« Reply #81 on: August 14, 2017, 11:58:50 AM »
Hee! I always have the same thought: let's see, we're in a world where Proctor & Gamble can no longer sell toothpaste and shampoo for American dollars, but there's a boutique around the corner where I can buy ammo and canned goods for Krugerrands? Uh... sure.

neonlight

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Re: time to buy gold?
« Reply #82 on: August 15, 2017, 02:12:49 AM »
For the "certificate" route, which are Mustachian's preferred offerings?

The easiest way to add gold to your portfolio is to purchase shares in a gold ETF like GLD, IAU, or SGOL.  I personally like IAU because of its low expense ratio.

That's an interesting approach. Gonna read up on that.

JAYSLOL

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Re: time to buy gold?
« Reply #83 on: August 15, 2017, 07:16:38 AM »
Hee! I always have the same thought: let's see, we're in a world where Proctor & Gamble can no longer sell toothpaste and shampoo for American dollars, but there's a boutique around the corner where I can buy ammo and canned goods for Krugerrands? Uh... sure.

Thats an excellent way to put it to those that think gold's going to save their ass if society collapses, made my day with that comment LOL

Jeferson

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Re: time to buy gold?
« Reply #84 on: August 17, 2017, 10:41:50 AM »
I read an interesting article on http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/commodities/news/gold-prices-are-likely-to-jump-to-a-4-year-high-of-1400-by-2017-end/articleshow/60072633.cms which states that price of gold should jump to 1400 dollars by the end of 2017. Whether that might actually happen, I am not certain. I am now trying trading Ethereum, but I am in the beginnings.
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Interest Compound

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Re: time to buy gold?
« Reply #85 on: August 19, 2017, 01:12:43 AM »
I hear time and again that a prolong bear market is arriving. Some say it's time to move assets and shares to gold, not to grow your money but simply to preserve when things come crashing.

Is that a common wisdom here?

Thanks! :)

No. It's not common wisdom here, for two huge RED FLAG reasons:

  • It's a horrible idea that historically speaking is very unlikely to accomplish it's stated goal
  • It presumes you have the ability to predict a prolong bear market. You do not. Neither do the people telling you to buy Gold. They just have something to sell...and you're falling for it.
Passive investing has a deep humility at its core--the aim is not to separate winners from losers, but rather to hold the entire market. Volatility is only temporary, but you can permanently cripple your portfolio trying to avoid it.

AlmstRtrd

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Re: time to buy gold?
« Reply #86 on: August 19, 2017, 06:17:16 PM »
I'm surprised that the gold discussions on most financial forums aren't more nuanced. There are plenty of people who hold gold as part of a diversified portfolio and they're not getting murdered when they rebalance out of their gold ETFs or sell their gold bullion to load up on stocks, bonds or whatever.

There are just periods of time when gold will do way better than stocks and others when stocks will do way better than gold (and, no, I can't tell you in advance which is which). For example, in the 2000s a $10,000 investment in the S&P 500 with reinvested dividends ended the decade worth about $8,680 (not inflation adjusted). That same $10,000 investment in gold went up to about $37,700 (again, not inflation adjusted).

Stocks are a great assets because owning them lets us reap the benefits of a growing economy. Gold can moderate investment returns over time because it tends to be pretty much uncorrelated with stocks. Not trying to sell anyone on anything. I just don't understand why people get so dug into their gold/stock positions.

ysette9

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Re: time to buy gold?
« Reply #87 on: August 19, 2017, 09:08:48 PM »
Personally my opinion is because gold doesn't produce anything, unlike what I will call "real" investments. It isn't an investment in the same way that your house you live in is not an investment. Gold produces no dividends, it doesn't bring in rent, it isn't being used to produce anything that benefits society like a piece of land growing crops or even if it were put to use in an industrial setting. It just sits there collecting dust. Hell, it doesn't even provide a roof over your head or decorate your wrist. Its value is entirely up to the whims of other people who think it will be valuable when other income-producing investments are having a slow moment.

If I wanted something uncorrelated to stocks to make me feel better about a doomsday scenario or just smooth out the ride, I'd be more interested is somethjhg people actually need. Platinum, rare earth metals, petroleum, whatever. Most of us can live a long and fulfilling life without *needing* gold for anything.
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JAYSLOL

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Re: time to buy gold?
« Reply #88 on: August 19, 2017, 09:42:47 PM »
I'm surprised that the gold discussions on most financial forums aren't more nuanced. There are plenty of people who hold gold as part of a diversified portfolio and they're not getting murdered when they rebalance out of their gold ETFs or sell their gold bullion to load up on stocks, bonds or whatever.

There are just periods of time when gold will do way better than stocks and others when stocks will do way better than gold (and, no, I can't tell you in advance which is which). For example, in the 2000s a $10,000 investment in the S&P 500 with reinvested dividends ended the decade worth about $8,680 (not inflation adjusted). That same $10,000 investment in gold went up to about $37,700 (again, not inflation adjusted).

Stocks are a great assets because owning them lets us reap the benefits of a growing economy. Gold can moderate investment returns over time because it tends to be pretty much uncorrelated with stocks. Not trying to sell anyone on anything. I just don't understand why people get so dug into their gold/stock positions.

Yep, totally agree with you.  I like a well diversified portfolio, and even though mine isn't huge yet I've got small amounts of metals and crypto currencies to compliment the vast majority of what i have which is stocks and some bonds (and in the future, Real Estate, just haven't got there yet)

neonlight

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Re: time to buy gold?
« Reply #89 on: August 20, 2017, 03:54:14 AM »
I'm surprised that the gold discussions on most financial forums aren't more nuanced. There are plenty of people who hold gold as part of a diversified portfolio and they're not getting murdered when they rebalance out of their gold ETFs or sell their gold bullion to load up on stocks, bonds or whatever.

There are just periods of time when gold will do way better than stocks and others when stocks will do way better than gold (and, no, I can't tell you in advance which is which). For example, in the 2000s a $10,000 investment in the S&P 500 with reinvested dividends ended the decade worth about $8,680 (not inflation adjusted). That same $10,000 investment in gold went up to about $37,700 (again, not inflation adjusted).

Stocks are a great assets because owning them lets us reap the benefits of a growing economy. Gold can moderate investment returns over time because it tends to be pretty much uncorrelated with stocks. Not trying to sell anyone on anything. I just don't understand why people get so dug into their gold/stock positions.

That's actually true, sharing the screenshot data.

PS: does anyone know how I can crop or resize the image in this forum? thanks
« Last Edit: August 21, 2017, 01:39:15 AM by neonlight »

AlmstRtrd

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Re: time to buy gold?
« Reply #90 on: August 20, 2017, 07:22:17 AM »
Personally my opinion is because gold doesn't produce anything, unlike what I will call "real" investments. It isn't an investment in the same way that your house you live in is not an investment. Gold produces no dividends, it doesn't bring in rent, it isn't being used to produce anything that benefits society like a piece of land growing crops or even if it were put to use in an industrial setting. It just sits there collecting dust. Hell, it doesn't even provide a roof over your head or decorate your wrist. Its value is entirely up to the whims of other people who think it will be valuable when other income-producing investments are having a slow moment.

If I wanted something uncorrelated to stocks to make me feel better about a doomsday scenario or just smooth out the ride, I'd be more interested is somethjhg people actually need. Platinum, rare earth metals, petroleum, whatever. Most of us can live a long and fulfilling life without *needing* gold for anything.

I don't disagree with you on most of this. Just a few thoughts though... I just bolded that one part because I think that's exactly the kind of scenario when gold can help to moderate investment returns. Let's look at the timeframe since gold became easily obtainable/tradable again in the 1970s, and let's forget about 1973 & 1974. There was pent up demand for something that had been difficult to obtain or whatever. But from 1975-1980 gold demolished financial assets. Then we had the period from 1981 to 1999 when owning stocks (and bonds and cash) was absolutely paramount to building wealth. Gold was a drag on any portfolio during that time. But barring the existence of crystal balls, someone who holds gold for when it outperforms has to accept that they'll also hold it for long periods when it underperforms. It "moderates" overall returns in both directions - lower highs and higher lows, in general. But stocks also moderate gold's return when it is doing well. From 2000 to 2011 or so, stocks really went nowhere while gold pretty much went straight up.

In recent years stocks have clearly been the winning hand and, yes, over time they probably will continue to be the best asset to hold in significant proportions. Let's hope so! Stocks doing well usually indicates an economy that is productive and moving in the right direction to the benefit of many.

I hold some gold because I am very close to the end of my earnings potential and I can't afford to have a long period of bad returns. Sequence of returns risk is greater for me than it is for someone with skills that are valued in today's economy. Mine no longer are, or at least not to the extent that they used to be.

Lastly, gold is nothing more than a tool in the investing toolbox. There's nothing sacred about it. It's just different enough for me that I believe holding some is wise. It's definitely not for everyone and I get that. Again, I am not selling anything... just looking at numbers and trying to figure out what makes sense for me.

ysette9

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Re: time to buy gold?
« Reply #91 on: August 20, 2017, 10:48:06 AM »
Quote
I hold some gold because I am very close to the end of my earnings potential and I can't afford to have a long period of bad returns. Sequence of returns risk is greater for me than it is for someone with skills that are valued in today's economy.

That is pretty much the argument I will use for having a much higher percentage of bonds in my AA as we approach FIRE. I agree with you on the sequence of returns risk, especially if you are planning on a long retirement. I like the idea of the reverse glide path for AA at and after retirement. We'll see how that plays out in reality once it is more than theory for me. ;)
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Travis

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Re: time to buy gold?
« Reply #92 on: August 20, 2017, 10:52:26 AM »


PS: does anyone know how I can crop or resize the image in this forum? thanks


Shrink the photo before posting it. 
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maizeman

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Re: time to buy gold?
« Reply #93 on: August 20, 2017, 11:22:46 AM »
Insert a width={width} and or height={height} into the first part of your image tag. For example:

Code: [Select]
[img width=500]https://i.imgur.com/7I6ojpE.jpg[/img]
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