Author Topic: The mother of all dead cat bounces?  (Read 8302 times)

BicycleB

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Re: The mother of all dead cat bounces?
« Reply #100 on: May 27, 2025, 10:31:44 AM »
I have only really been investing for three years and about six months as a mustache. Trying to time the market seems impossible. I started in the down year of 2022 followed by two crazy back to back years in 2023 and 2024. All you can do is control what you can control and not freak out.

2022 wasn't a down year.  I started investing in 2007.  Now, 2008 . . . that was a down year.  :P

I once was on a flight with an aerospace engineering student.  There was some severe weather we were going around, and it was a bit bumpy.

DW complained about the severe turbulence, and he turned to her and, smiling, said: "This is just light turbulence.  It isn't moderate turbulence yet, because there are no free-floating objects."

2022 was light turbulence, unless you were heavy into SPAC's, bitcoin, and tech.

2008 was moderate turbulence.

hahahaha!!!

mistymoney

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Re: The mother of all dead cat bounces?
« Reply #101 on: May 27, 2025, 11:56:54 AM »
I moved 40% of my money into bonds at the bottom like a dunce and now Im regretting it. Luckily I kept the majority in stocks but I'll remember this lesson for the rest of my life. I got caught up in the news and the doom when I should have known no one had any extra information they were operting on.

I'm going to buy back in and keep it there this time, while also going on a diet of news around markets. The news is not reflective of any special information and I was better off living my day to day and sticking to the plan.

Sorry you got caught in the bumps, why did you feel the need to sell? You need to think on that because otherwise, buying back in now is a recipe for disaster if you don't know what caused this. Especially if you are a long way off from fire.

You sell at a bottom, buy back after a big jump, and then markets tank 15% again next month. Will you keep up the same patterns?

Market could also go up 15%, we just don't know. You need to invest like you understand that we just don't know.

You need an investment strategy you can stick with.

Read up here:
https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/IPS


wantstoinvest

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Re: The mother of all dead cat bounces?
« Reply #102 on: May 27, 2025, 03:55:33 PM »
I moved 40% of my money into bonds at the bottom like a dunce and now Im regretting it. Luckily I kept the majority in stocks but I'll remember this lesson for the rest of my life. I got caught up in the news and the doom when I should have known no one had any extra information they were operting on.

I'm going to buy back in and keep it there this time, while also going on a diet of news around markets. The news is not reflective of any special information and I was better off living my day to day and sticking to the plan.

Sorry you got caught in the bumps, why did you feel the need to sell? You need to think on that because otherwise, buying back in now is a recipe for disaster if you don't know what caused this. Especially if you are a long way off from fire.

You sell at a bottom, buy back after a big jump, and then markets tank 15% again next month. Will you keep up the same patterns?

Market could also go up 15%, we just don't know. You need to invest like you understand that we just don't know.

You need an investment strategy you can stick with.

Read up here:
https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/IPS

I got caught up in the fear of tarriffs and reading to much analysis online. It was the feeling that anything could go wrong and the market would never recover. My issue was the news and forums I was reading were so confident in their analysis in saying the US is done, the hegemony is voer, blah blah. Little did I know, they had no extra info.

Then Trump caved. It's all a dog and pony show. I just have not read any news since and I'm much better for it because even if there are problems, people are going to figure out ways to make money.

and my money is back in equities, where I wanted it. I think I also have a friend who I listen to that is just a more conservative investor than I am and hes still in bonds. I was losing sleep over being out of the market, even with the volatility, so now that I'm back I'm sleeping like a baby.

I also realized, since I have a fairly low cost of living, I didn't need that money yet anyway. I should stop letting the news and emotions of other investors scare me and stick to a plan that I want, which is lower my cost of living and take some equities on.
« Last Edit: May 27, 2025, 03:58:14 PM by wantstoinvest »

41_swish

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Re: The mother of all dead cat bounces?
« Reply #103 on: May 28, 2025, 11:09:27 PM »
The market will somehow go positive tomorrow based on futures and then pump until July and then some new trade policy will go into effect and we will be right back where we started.

ChpBstrd

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Re: The mother of all dead cat bounces?
« Reply #104 on: May 29, 2025, 07:14:06 AM »
The market will somehow go positive tomorrow based on futures and then pump until July and then some new trade policy will go into effect and we will be right back where we started.
It might not be a trade policy. Yesterday's court ruling suggests the whole tariff war might be over, because a 49 year old trade deficit does not constitute an emergency. So the whole net effect of the Trump administration might be tax cuts and a rising debt - about like the Bush administration, or Trump 1.0.

Instead, it might be:
  • Outright repression of political opponents
  • Bond vigilantes revolt and drive up rates
  • Continued dollar weakness
There are two scenarios where the tariffs stay an issue: Trump just ignores the courts and the whole thing draws out for 3.5 years. Or, the Republican-owned Supreme Court rules in Trump's favor.

reeshau

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Re: The mother of all dead cat bounces?
« Reply #105 on: May 29, 2025, 08:24:48 AM »
The market will somehow go positive tomorrow based on futures and then pump until July and then some new trade policy will go into effect and we will be right back where we started.
It might not be a trade policy. Yesterday's court ruling suggests the whole tariff war might be over, because a 49 year old trade deficit does not constitute an emergency. So the whole net effect of the Trump administration might be tax cuts and a rising debt - about like the Bush administration, or Trump 1.0.

Instead, it might be:
  • Outright repression of political opponents
  • Bond vigilantes revolt and drive up rates
  • Continued dollar weakness
There are two scenarios where the tariffs stay an issue: Trump just ignores the courts and the whole thing draws out for 3.5 years. Or, the Republican-owned Supreme Court rules in Trump's favor.

Trump still has 2 rules under which to make tariffs, and he has.  Section 232 auto, steel, and aluminum tariffs, for example, remain.  And he used section 301 in his first term.

This way was faster, but it doesn't mean he can't hit 'em where it hurts.

41_swish

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Re: The mother of all dead cat bounces?
« Reply #106 on: May 29, 2025, 09:43:55 AM »
We have been in a trade deficit almost double my lifetime. This is nothing new. The way we have evolved to a free trade neoliberal system is why we are in this exact situation. The U.S.'s real export now is debt, especially when we got off the gold standard.

markbike528CBX

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Re: The mother of all dead cat bounces?
« Reply #107 on: May 29, 2025, 11:10:02 AM »
I moved 40% of my money into bonds at the bottom like a dunce and now Im regretting it. Luckily I kept the majority in stocks but I'll remember this lesson for the rest of my life. I got caught up in the news and the doom when I should have known no one had any extra information they were operting on.

I'm going to buy back in and keep it there this time, while also going on a diet of news around markets. The news is not reflective of any special information and I was better off living my day to day and sticking to the plan.

Sorry you got caught in the bumps, why did you feel the need to sell? You need to think on that because otherwise, buying back in now is a recipe for disaster if you don't know what caused this. Especially if you are a long way off from fire.

You sell at a bottom, buy back after a big jump, and then markets tank 15% again next month. Will you keep up the same patterns?

Market could also go up 15%, we just don't know. You need to invest like you understand that we just don't know.

You need an investment strategy you can stick with.

Read up here:
https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/IPS

I got caught up in the fear of tarriffs and reading to much analysis online. It was the feeling that anything could go wrong and the market would never recover. My issue was the news and forums I was reading were so confident in their analysis in saying the US is done, the hegemony is voer, blah blah. Little did I know, they had no extra info.

Then Trump caved. It's all a dog and pony show. I just have not read any news since and I'm much better for it because even if there are problems, people are going to figure out ways to make money.

and my money is back in equities, where I wanted it. I think I also have a friend who I listen to that is just a more conservative investor than I am and hes still in bonds. I was losing sleep over being out of the market, even with the volatility, so now that I'm back I'm sleeping like a baby.

I also realized, since I have a fairly low cost of living, I didn't need that money yet anyway. I should stop letting the news and emotions of other investors scare me and stick to a plan that I want, which is lower my cost of living and take some equities on.
@wantstoinvest , my condolences on your rough learning experience.  All of us had to, at least partially, learn the hard way.
Besides mistymoney's great advice on having an IPS, you should look at RWD's list of all the times people were SURE that the market/US/world was DOOOOOOMed.
Confidence in doomsaying is a vital necessity.  Doomers are SURE, non-doomers are not as certain.
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/the-mother-of-all-dead-cat-bounces/msg3361112/#msg3361112.  --- earlier in this very thread. 

Also instructive is a on old blog post on "Bob, the world's worst market timer". https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2014/02/worlds-worst-market-timer/

Fortunately for me, there was so much "friction" in moving money around when I started, that I really didn't have much choice but to ride out: 
Early 2001 or so (down 30%)
2008-2009  My 401K was worth less than all the money I put into it. --- My response was "too late now, just ride it out" and kept putting money in stocks.
My IPS said put 50% of available cash in stocks when the SP500 was down 20%, how could it go wrong :-)   Minus 30% later, I was still dribbling money into stocks.
I'm proud of the fact that with my last few dollars of cash in March 2009 I bought 1 share of BRK.B, mostly for the shareholder meeting credentials, which I still have.  BRK.B up 500% since.
2020 - Remember the Covid dip? --- it was a major, apocalyptic, crash at the time.

wantstoinvest

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Re: The mother of all dead cat bounces?
« Reply #108 on: May 29, 2025, 11:15:07 AM »
@wantstoinvest , my condolences on your rough learning experience.  All of us had to, at least partially, learn the hard way.
Besides mistymoney's great advice on having an IPS, you should look at RWD's list of all the times people were SURE that the market/US/world was DOOOOOOMed.
Confidence in doomsaying is a vital necessity.  Doomers are SURE, non-doomers are not as certain.
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/the-mother-of-all-dead-cat-bounces/msg3361112/#msg3361112.  --- earlier in this very thread. 

Also instructive is a on old blog post on "Bob, the world's worst market timer". https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2014/02/worlds-worst-market-timer/

Fortunately for me, there was so much "friction" in moving money around when I started, that I really didn't have much choice but to ride out: 
Early 2001 or so (down 30%)
2008-2009  My 401K was worth less than all the money I put into it. --- My response was "too late now, just ride it out" and kept putting money in stocks.
My IPS said put 50% of available cash in stocks when the SP500 was down 20%, how could it go wrong :-)   Minus 30% later, I was still dribbling money into stocks.
I'm proud of the fact that with my last few dollars of cash in March 2009 I bought 1 share of BRK.B, mostly for the shareholder meeting credentials, which I still have.  BRK.B up 500% since.
2020 - Remember the Covid dip? --- it was a major, apocalyptic, crash at the time.



Thanks for the kind words everyone!!! I have learned my lesson for sure, I held my money through COVID no sweat but I got nervous this time cause I thought if the US government is essentially stopping free trade, the system is doomed. I should have known that there was some bluffing involved and I should have also just ignored it. Like all the posts you have mentioned about major events showed, none of them mattered.

Maybe it is also because I had some more skin in the game (post tax brokerage that almost did not exist during COVID) that I also felt different, but I learned my lesson. Overall, I took a 100k hit! But I'll have to live with and remember that I need to stick to my AA. I felt terrible being out. I live pretty cheap and have nothing else I want to do with my money (real estate, gold, other assets) so I should have just stayed true. But now I know. The whole point of index funds to is essentially to set it and forget it, but I was reading news and checking numbers like a day trader. Waste of time and money!!!

sonofsven

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Re: The mother of all dead cat bounces?
« Reply #109 on: May 29, 2025, 11:16:37 AM »
Is there a thread fof those of us who haven't looked at our investment balances since 2024 or so?

Fru-Gal

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Re: The mother of all dead cat bounces?
« Reply #110 on: May 29, 2025, 12:27:14 PM »
Is there a thread fof those of us who haven't looked at our investment balances since 2024 or so?

There was a White Coat Investor blog post many years ago about a study of physician investors and those who had the best results were the ones who lost their password to their account.

JupiterGreen

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Re: The mother of all dead cat bounces?
« Reply #111 on: May 29, 2025, 12:41:56 PM »
Is there a thread fof those of us who haven't looked at our investment balances since 2024 or so?

There was a White Coat Investor blog post many years ago about a study of physician investors and those who had the best results were the ones who lost their password to their account.

Love this.

But I do remember reading a news story about a guy who did not check his brokerage account for about a decade (I think) and it was turned in to the state as abandoned property. He had a bunch of Apple or Amazon stock that went up astronomically in that time period. Point is, I believe you do need to log in to your accounts occasionally (maybe once a year?) or this could happen. I'm too lazy to look up the details right now, and it probably depends on who you have your money with, but it's good to keep in mind.

ChpBstrd

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Re: The mother of all dead cat bounces?
« Reply #112 on: May 29, 2025, 01:19:43 PM »
Is there a thread fof those of us who haven't looked at our investment balances since 2024 or so?
What would there be to talk about?

"I wonder how much money I have?"

People would just offer the solution.

mistymoney

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Re: The mother of all dead cat bounces?
« Reply #113 on: May 29, 2025, 05:22:30 PM »
Is there a thread fof those of us who haven't looked at our investment balances since 2024 or so?

There was a White Coat Investor blog post many years ago about a study of physician investors and those who had the best results were the ones who lost their password to their account.

thats hilarious and informative!

VanillaGorilla

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Re: The mother of all dead cat bounces?
« Reply #114 on: May 29, 2025, 05:29:39 PM »
Is there a thread fof those of us who haven't looked at our investment balances since 2024 or so?
What would there be to talk about?

"I wonder how much money I have?"

People would just offer the solution.
There's a 79 pages of a thread devoted to not paying off your mortgage. I imagine there would be plenty to discuss. For example, people could gloat about how well their investments are doing compared to people spending hours a day trying to predict the future.

sonofsven

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Re: The mother of all dead cat bounces?
« Reply #115 on: May 29, 2025, 08:33:19 PM »
Is there a thread fof those of us who haven't looked at our investment balances since 2024 or so?
What would there be to talk about?

"I wonder how much money I have?"

People would just offer the solution.
There's a 79 pages of a thread devoted to not paying off your mortgage. I imagine there would be plenty to discuss. For example, people could gloat about how well their investments are doing compared to people spending hours a day trying to predict the future.
Oh, I've already gloated there plenty of times

mistymoney

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Re: The mother of all dead cat bounces?
« Reply #116 on: May 30, 2025, 10:08:44 AM »
Is there a thread fof those of us who haven't looked at our investment balances since 2024 or so?
What would there be to talk about?

"I wonder how much money I have?"

People would just offer the solution.
There's a 79 pages of a thread devoted to not paying off your mortgage. I imagine there would be plenty to discuss. For example, people could gloat about how well their investments are doing compared to people spending hours a day trying to predict the future.

but you'd have to check to know, right?

Then you are checking.

 

Wow, a phone plan for fifteen bucks!