Author Topic: Stop worrying about the 4% rule  (Read 419072 times)


  • Walrus Stache
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  • Age: 56
  • Location: Corvallis, Oregon
  • Expat Brit living in the New World..:)
Re: Stop worrying about the 4% rule
« Reply #1600 on: August 05, 2018, 11:56:13 AM »
Honestly (unless you're in a job you HATE) OMY is not the end of the world. Heck AFTER I retired I took on some contracts paid hourly and it was the most fun (and profitable) work I have ever done.

Some would argue I have over saved just a smidge though..;)


  • Handlebar Stache
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Re: Stop worrying about the 4% rule
« Reply #1601 on: August 05, 2018, 12:54:46 PM »


  • Bristles
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Re: Stop worrying about the 4% rule
« Reply #1602 on: August 05, 2018, 04:55:30 PM »
Swordguy - I like the way you posted this;


Well, first of all, FIRECalc is based on historical results, i.e., "the past".   You won't be living in the past, you'll be living in the future.   So, really, we don't know what will happen.     

What FIRECalc does is tell you that if the future is no worse than the past (from an FI perspective), then your odds of success are thus and so.  Obviously, the future could be worse than the past.      (It could also be much the same and even better, which would be more likely.) 

So, 95% success and 100% success are really about the same thing, given that the future could be different (and worse).


So, if you quit your job, can you get another one similar in pay to it within a 12 month period of time?

Do you really need one at your old salary if things go bad for a couple of years?  Can you cut spending for those years?  Or just get a part-time job and cover the gap?

Can you cut spending to cover the gap?

If you answer any of these questions Yes, then you are FI ready (money-wise).   If not, you should consider a larger stash.

Best of luck.  I understand OMY syndrome, we did it.   Of course, we had a mentally handicapped daughter who would pay the price of our mistake, so we went for the extra safety, so I don't feel foolish for doing that.

Great Questions - Firecalc is based on history and history is known to repeat itself so Firecalc should be given some level of trust.

  I'll apply this to myself: yes, yes and maybe.  Makes me feel good.