Author Topic: Shoot, I Just Stock Picked!  (Read 46562 times)

Mr Mark

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Re: Shoot, I Just Stock Picked!
« Reply #50 on: April 29, 2017, 11:30:10 PM »
Any recommended easy way to benchmark a trade against the vanguard sp500? in a way that takes account of index fund dividends ?

talltexan

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Re: Shoot, I Just Stock Picked!
« Reply #51 on: May 01, 2017, 07:33:35 AM »
Re: benchmarking

How about just owning half in SP500 index, other half in whatever trade you're considering. Then you know whether you beat the SP because you can see which half is worth more.

Retire-Canada

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Re: Shoot, I Just Stock Picked!
« Reply #52 on: May 01, 2017, 07:52:12 AM »
Any recommended easy way to benchmark a trade against the vanguard sp500? in a way that takes account of index fund dividends ?

You can do the following:

- note the price change of the S&P500 over the dates you held the other investment
- factor in the dividend based on a S&P500 fund of your choice
--- take the trailing 12 month yield and prorate it for the time you held the other investment

The main flaw with this ^^^ approach that I see is that if you start from cash and then move back to cash you really should include the periods sitting in cash into your calculations since the S&P500 investment option you are trying to benchmark would be a buy and hold strategy with no time out of the market.

PaulMaxime

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Re: Shoot, I Just Stock Picked!
« Reply #53 on: May 01, 2017, 09:14:59 AM »
Any recommended easy way to benchmark a trade against the vanguard sp500? in a way that takes account of index fund dividends ?

Yes, track yourself against the SP500 Total Return Index. At Yahoo Finance it's ^SP500TR.

I use Apple Numbers for my portfolio tracking and you can directly quote that index inside your spreadsheet. It also handles historical quotes. My tracker has monthly total portfolio value with cash flows compared to the same cash flows invested in something that tracks ^SP500TR and graph the difference. I've been keeping this spreadsheet since 2007.
« Last Edit: May 01, 2017, 09:17:48 AM by PaulMaxime »

Pizzabrewer

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Re: Shoot, I Just Stock Picked!
« Reply #54 on: May 05, 2017, 09:33:48 AM »
EXAS is in the midst of a short squeeze. Always heard about such a thing, it's fun to be on the long side of one.

The question is, when to sell?

Retire-Canada

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Re: Shoot, I Just Stock Picked!
« Reply #55 on: May 05, 2017, 09:35:39 AM »
The question is, when to sell?

At the top is best.

Pizzabrewer

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Re: Shoot, I Just Stock Picked!
« Reply #56 on: May 05, 2017, 01:50:53 PM »
The question is, when to sell?

At the top is best.

There is a certain wisdom to that...

Pizzabrewer

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Re: Shoot, I Just Stock Picked!
« Reply #57 on: May 20, 2017, 08:27:27 PM »
So the shorts are fighting back.  Ah, the joys of investing in biotech where market manipulation runs rampant.

A particularly sleazy short-seller put out a hit piece on EXAS and managed to drop the price by about 15%.  Why this individual has the clout to influence a stock's price so much is a bit of a mystery.  By all appearances the company continues to grow at an accelerating rate and is still on track to revolutionize their segment of the health care industry.

My other bio-pick (KERX) is finally starting to hit its stride and has been growing sales nicely.  They've had their stumbles over the past 2 years launching their product but things are looking up.  I was largely out of the stock until a few weeks ago when I re-bought at $5.80.

I consider both companies to be long-term holds.

farmecologist

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Re: Shoot, I Just Stock Picked!
« Reply #58 on: May 20, 2017, 09:46:54 PM »
So the shorts are fighting back.  Ah, the joys of investing in biotech where market manipulation runs rampant.

A particularly sleazy short-seller put out a hit piece on EXAS and managed to drop the price by about 15%.  Why this individual has the clout to influence a stock's price so much is a bit of a mystery.  By all appearances the company continues to grow at an accelerating rate and is still on track to revolutionize their segment of the health care industry.

My other bio-pick (KERX) is finally starting to hit its stride and has been growing sales nicely.  They've had their stumbles over the past 2 years launching their product but things are looking up.  I was largely out of the stock until a few weeks ago when I re-bought at $5.80.

I consider both companies to be long-term holds.

Took a look at EXAS.  Yes, manipulation runs rampant and shorts AND longs put out articles all the time to pump their position.  However, it's usually the big boys that do the real manipulation ( i.e. - hedge funds and big institutionals ).  At any rate, it looks to me like EXAS had a healthy run and now is having a small pullback.  The trend line is certainly still bullish though so hang in there!


runewell

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Re: Shoot, I Just Stock Picked!
« Reply #59 on: May 21, 2017, 05:56:14 PM »
but I'm still not significantly above the S&P on a five year basis.

My Account
1-Year   3-Year   5-Year   
+24.18%   +14.62%   +17.14%

S&P 500® Index    
1 Year         3-Year      5-Year
+11.96%    +8.87%   +14.66%

You're not?  I beg to differ.

Scandium

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Re: Shoot, I Just Stock Picked!
« Reply #60 on: May 22, 2017, 12:52:34 PM »
Big week for Alphabet. I bought them a year ago this week when mild earnings caused them to pull back. Currently sitting on 5 shares, not life-changing, but the jump from earnings yesterday made me about $150.

Now that it's long-term capital gains, I'm considering selling.

Ey! Are you me? I bought 5 shares of then-google couple years go for ~$550 per share! Now at $962 I'm up about $2k, or 80%. It's sitting at a PE of 30, and I'm wondering how much higher it can go?? Thinking of collecting my profits and move on, probably to an index. Advice?

I don't really do play money anymore, and it's a tiny part of my NW, but still money. Loosing out would suck.

PaulMaxime

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Re: Shoot, I Just Stock Picked!
« Reply #61 on: May 22, 2017, 01:01:55 PM »
Big week for Alphabet. I bought them a year ago this week when mild earnings caused them to pull back. Currently sitting on 5 shares, not life-changing, but the jump from earnings yesterday made me about $150.

Now that it's long-term capital gains, I'm considering selling.

Ey! Are you me? I bought 5 shares of then-google couple years go for ~$550 per share! Now at $962 I'm up about $2k, or 80%. It's sitting at a PE of 30, and I'm wondering how much higher it can go?? Thinking of collecting my profits and move on, probably to an index. Advice?

I don't really do play money anymore, and it's a tiny part of my NW, but still money. Loosing out would suck.

Neither of you should be picking individual stocks. By itself the stock price and how much it has gone up mean nothing.

Is Alphabet still growing, are they continuing to generate more profits? Are they a great business with a history of innovation? Do you see where they are headed in the future?

It's often the case that businesses doing well are the ones that keep on doing well. In many cases the signal of a stock price going up and up is a signal that it's going to go up more.

But most importantly, in order to make money in the stock market you need to find great companies (or buy an index fund) and hold on to it for a very long time, in spite of up and down fluctuations.

You were lucky enough to pick a single good investment. Now you want to sell. What is the chance that you will find another company going forward that is better than GOOGL?

Until you can answer those types of questions instead of being scared off by a little price fluctuation either way you are much better off indexing. But you have to be willing to suffer the fluctuations both UP and DOWN even in an index portfolio.

Otherwise I predict you will underperform over the long term

Scandium

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Re: Shoot, I Just Stock Picked!
« Reply #62 on: May 22, 2017, 01:10:38 PM »
Big week for Alphabet. I bought them a year ago this week when mild earnings caused them to pull back. Currently sitting on 5 shares, not life-changing, but the jump from earnings yesterday made me about $150.

Now that it's long-term capital gains, I'm considering selling.

Ey! Are you me? I bought 5 shares of then-google couple years go for ~$550 per share! Now at $962 I'm up about $2k, or 80%. It's sitting at a PE of 30, and I'm wondering how much higher it can go?? Thinking of collecting my profits and move on, probably to an index. Advice?

I don't really do play money anymore, and it's a tiny part of my NW, but still money. Loosing out would suck.

Neither of you should be picking individual stocks. By itself the stock price and how much it has gone up mean nothing.
No, nobody should be stock picking. Nobody has proved to do better than an index long term. So I have no better dds than anyone else. But no worse either!

Is Alphabet still growing, are they continuing to generate more profits? Are they a great business with a history of innovation? Do you see where they are headed in the future?
No idea. Yes they have been, but will they? Nobody knows. I have no reliable basis for saying either way

It's often the case that businesses doing well are the ones that keep on doing well. In many cases the signal of a stock price going up and up is a signal that it's going to go up more.

But most importantly, in order to make money in the stock market you need to find great companies (or buy an index fund) and hold on to it for a very long time, in spite of up and down fluctuations.
Yeah "find great companies".. Nobody can do that reliably.

You were lucky enough to pick a single good investment. Now you want to sell. What is the chance that you will find another company going forward that is better than GOOGL?
Yes I realize I was lucky. And that's the point. Feel I should take what I made and "get out" if you will. As is the case for even the best-paid expert, long term my picks are likely to at best equal the index. And probably underperform. So I guess I answered my own question; statistically I'm likely to loose to an index if I keep holding individual stocks so I should sell. This is the Vulcan answer..

Until you can answer those types of questions instead of being scared off by a little price fluctuation either way you are much better off indexing. But you have to be willing to suffer the fluctuations both UP and DOWN even in an index portfolio.

Otherwise I predict you will underperform over the long term

talltexan

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Re: Shoot, I Just Stock Picked!
« Reply #63 on: May 23, 2017, 02:22:27 PM »
Agreed that Scandium and I are lucky (and we acknowledge that luck). But that risk has been limited to a very small portion of our respective net worths.


surfhb

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Re: Shoot, I Just Stock Picked!
« Reply #64 on: May 23, 2017, 09:17:36 PM »
You guys realize you're all going to lose your asses when the next serious bear market comes, right?      Most of you will sell off out of fear....that's just the way it will be.   ;)

Been there, done that....twice in the last 25 years.   No more for me.    Slow and steady index investing with a reasonable AA.

This bull market has gone on so long and the age of the avg MMM'er seems to be in their 20s and 30s.   It seems many investors here have not yet seen what a serious downturn in the markets can do to ones networth.   

Be careful folks.   This isn't a game.....even if its a small % of your portfolio.    Play it smart.
« Last Edit: May 23, 2017, 09:51:19 PM by surfhb »

talltexan

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Re: Shoot, I Just Stock Picked!
« Reply #65 on: May 24, 2017, 07:04:10 AM »
The next bear market will whack some of my individual positions pretty heavily.

But someone in zher 30's should certainly remember the downturn of 2008 (as I do).

surfhb

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Re: Shoot, I Just Stock Picked!
« Reply #66 on: May 24, 2017, 09:47:29 AM »
The next bear market will whack some of my individual positions pretty heavily.

But someone in zher 30's should certainly remember the downturn of 2008 (as I do).

True but when you're young and just beginning to invest, the impact is less significant.   

When you are close to FIRE and lose $100k in a month ( like 2008) things look a whole lot different !!   Add kids, wife, job loss and loss of home equity in there as well. 

Not trying to paint a general picture of the avg MMM or investor but it just concerns me when I see younger investors touting their net worths from the rise of the equity and housing markets in recent years. 

I mean, there are posts in this thread who are actually celebrating the fact they have beat the S&P the last 5 years.  That's laughable and kinda scary

I'm looking forward to reading this entire blog site WHEN another bear market returns...the whole early retirement thing might look a whole lot different 🙂

Hey!   Maybe the next 10 years will go on forever and ever !   


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« Last Edit: May 24, 2017, 10:11:33 AM by surfhb »

farmecologist

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Re: Shoot, I Just Stock Picked!
« Reply #67 on: May 24, 2017, 02:36:18 PM »
The next bear market will whack some of my individual positions pretty heavily.

But someone in zher 30's should certainly remember the downturn of 2008 (as I do).

True but when you're young and just beginning to invest, the impact is less significant.   

When you are close to FIRE and lose $100k in a month ( like 2008) things look a whole lot different !!   Add kids, wife, job loss and loss of home equity in there as well. 

Not trying to paint a general picture of the avg MMM or investor but it just concerns me when I see younger investors touting their net worths from the rise of the equity and housing markets in recent years. 

I mean, there are posts in this thread who are actually celebrating the fact they have beat the S&P the last 5 years.  That's laughable and kinda scary

I'm looking forward to reading this entire blog site WHEN another bear market returns...the whole early retirement thing might look a whole lot different 🙂

Hey!   Maybe the next 10 years will go on forever and ever !   


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I agree...I have mentioned the 2008-09 'crash' in other threads as a cautionary tale.  The odd thing is that I felt somewhat berated by others because of it.  Many just blow it off and say they will 'dollar cost average' into it, etc...

As one who lived through it, some just don't understand how severe the situation was.  Many did panic...Heck, I saw some extremely savvy people panic and take money out of the markets at the absolute worst time.

Another wildcard was the massive loss of jobs that happened.  When people lose jobs...they obviously can't invest at the low point...so 'dollar cost averaging' doesn't always work.

Luckily, we were able to see it through..and it worked out very well for us.  However, I saw many people 'go under' financially...and had to walk away from their homes (and mortgages), etc...

I really hope something like '08-'09 won't happen again.  However, it sure seems like there is a feeling of 'irrational exuberance' in the air again.  It can also be argued that another 'housing bubble' is forming.

« Last Edit: May 24, 2017, 02:38:53 PM by farmecologist »

talltexan

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Re: Shoot, I Just Stock Picked!
« Reply #68 on: May 25, 2017, 07:54:22 AM »
Alphabet's share price is at an all-time high. Those of you who own indices can enjoy this surge (in miniature), but those of us who took the plunge on them as an individual stock get to enjoy achievements like beating the world's leading GO! master.

https://finance.yahoo.com/video/game-over-ai-defeats-game-142739243.html

Along with IBM's Watson winning at Jeopardy, it looks bad for humans when the machines decide they want to run things. I want our Robot overlords to know I was on their side early, and I will be able to prove it with my investment account statements. Of course, the achievements of Watson don't seem to be helping IBM increase sales...

PaulMaxime

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Re: Shoot, I Just Stock Picked!
« Reply #69 on: May 25, 2017, 10:44:34 AM »
Quote
The next bear market will whack some of my individual positions pretty heavily.

But someone in zher 30's should certainly remember the downturn of 2008 (as I do).

Ahh, you young'uns. Are you too young to remember the crash of '87 or the Internet bubble or even the oil shocks and stagflation of the '70s?


Quote
I agree...I have mentioned the 2008-09 'crash' in other threads as a cautionary tale.  The odd thing is that I felt somewhat berated by others because of it.  Many just blow it off and say they will 'dollar cost average' into it, etc...

As one who lived through it, some just don't understand how severe the situation was.  Many did panic...Heck, I saw some extremely savvy people panic and take money out of the markets at the absolute worst time.

I really hope something like '08-'09 won't happen again.  However, it sure seems like there is a feeling of 'irrational exuberance' in the air again.  It can also be argued that another 'housing bubble' is forming.

On the other hand, these crashes and downturns are a normal part of investing. If you can't take them in stride then your risk tolerance is not what you think it is.

Even with all these crashes and downturns the market is up ~10% a year on average over the past long time frame. You have to be able to stick with it through the normal inevitable downturns.

The fact that many people were living beyond their means and leveraged up to the hilt in 2008 meant that lots of people were deeply hurt in the crash. It means that you need to prepare yourself financially and mentally for this situation in advance. Keep as much of your net worth in cash that you need to be comfortable when the next inevitable downturn happens. It will happen again in the future. It always does. But the market also always goes up and it goes up more than it goes down.


Scandium

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Re: Shoot, I Just Stock Picked!
« Reply #70 on: May 26, 2017, 07:23:57 AM »
Agreed that Scandium and I are lucky (and we acknowledge that luck). But that risk has been limited to a very small portion of our respective net worths.

Exactly, $5k is now pretty peanuts in my overall investments. And I've more or less stopped gambling on individual stocks now anyway. FWIW I've decide to hold on to GOOGL. $5k won't make much difference to my life right now, and would just go to VTSAX anyway. I'll hold on and who knows, maybe it follows amazon's price and it's worth $100k in 10 years. If not I'm ok loosing all that. It'll be my lottery ticket and one stock to follow.

I think those of us who acknowledge it's all luck and gambling, and no skills, are in no danger of going crazy stock picking.

farmecologist

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Re: Shoot, I Just Stock Picked!
« Reply #71 on: May 26, 2017, 09:49:56 AM »


Quote
I agree...I have mentioned the 2008-09 'crash' in other threads as a cautionary tale.  The odd thing is that I felt somewhat berated by others because of it.  Many just blow it off and say they will 'dollar cost average' into it, etc...

As one who lived through it, some just don't understand how severe the situation was.  Many did panic...Heck, I saw some extremely savvy people panic and take money out of the markets at the absolute worst time.

I really hope something like '08-'09 won't happen again.  However, it sure seems like there is a feeling of 'irrational exuberance' in the air again.  It can also be argued that another 'housing bubble' is forming.

On the other hand, these crashes and downturns are a normal part of investing. If you can't take them in stride then your risk tolerance is not what you think it is.

Even with all these crashes and downturns the market is up ~10% a year on average over the past long time frame. You have to be able to stick with it through the normal inevitable downturns.

The fact that many people were living beyond their means and leveraged up to the hilt in 2008 meant that lots of people were deeply hurt in the crash. It means that you need to prepare yourself financially and mentally for this situation in advance. Keep as much of your net worth in cash that you need to be comfortable when the next inevitable downturn happens. It will happen again in the future. It always does. But the market also always goes up and it goes up more than it goes down.

yes, of course ups and downs are normal.  You and I know that...as well as most people here at MMM.  However, quite a few 'young investors' have seen very little in the way of significant downturn.  The bull market has been incredible over the last decade or so. 

A couple other things to think about.  First, housing seems to be getting into 'bubble' territory again as well.  I've seen many articles arguing both sides...but signs are certainly there.  Second, household debt is at an all-time (pre-2008) high again.  You would have thought people would have learned.  So yeah...it seems that people are becoming 'leveraged to the hilt' again and do appear to be living beyond their means.

At any rate, I don't want to sound like a grumpy old guy (and I'm only in my mid-40s)...but these things need to be thought about by some of the younger folks out there ( although not necessarily the MMM types - I'm probably preaching to the choir ).  However, I do feel that some MMM'ers have become extremely bold with their FIRE predictions and really hope they are not disappointed when a significant downturn happens.


Pizzabrewer

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Re: Shoot, I Just Stock Picked!
« Reply #72 on: May 31, 2017, 08:52:50 AM »
New all-time high.

The basis for the recent short attack was lack of coverage by United Healthcare for EXAS' product. Well guess what?  Coverage begins July 1.

The shorts are getting roasted. I'm making bank.  ;)
« Last Edit: June 04, 2017, 09:23:13 PM by Pizzabrewer »

Pizzabrewer

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Re: Shoot, I Just Stock Picked!
« Reply #73 on: June 04, 2017, 09:20:47 PM »
EXAS rose another few $$ to make a high of $38.92.  I sold about 1/3 of my position (mostly in long calls) as I anticipate a wild week for this stock.  I anticipate a pullback after this dramatic run.  It might also continue the rocketship ride.

In any event it'll be interesting.
« Last Edit: June 04, 2017, 09:27:16 PM by Pizzabrewer »

talltexan

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Re: Shoot, I Just Stock Picked!
« Reply #74 on: June 05, 2017, 08:32:03 AM »
Pizzabrewer: nice job!

Making the decision to sell some is hard. I am just hanging onto GOOGL for the ride (It's only five shares, so I'm treating them like my fingers). It's really the only thing I own that's doing well. This psychology is part of the reason I'm not fit for substantial exposure on these bad boys.

thenextguy

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Re: Shoot, I Just Stock Picked!
« Reply #75 on: June 05, 2017, 08:51:50 AM »
I used to be someone who was adamantly opposed to picking stocks. For reasons that would take too long to explain, I have reversed course. Slightly. The vast marjority of my portfolio is still in VTSAX, but today I purchased two individual stocks: MSFT and BR.

MSFT: 100 shares @ $71.94
BR: 100 shares @ $77.58

« Last Edit: June 05, 2017, 08:56:00 AM by thenextguy »

talltexan

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Re: Shoot, I Just Stock Picked!
« Reply #76 on: June 05, 2017, 08:54:16 AM »
Would you be willing to share the strategy that led you to select those two?

Scandium

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Re: Shoot, I Just Stock Picked!
« Reply #77 on: June 05, 2017, 09:02:46 AM »
Big week for Alphabet. I bought them a year ago this week when mild earnings caused them to pull back. Currently sitting on 5 shares, not life-changing, but the jump from earnings yesterday made me about $150.

Now that it's long-term capital gains, I'm considering selling.

Hey, remember when google split to go to ~$500/share? Me neither, as it just passed (arbitrary) $1000/share again! congrats.. :D

Pizzabrewer

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Re: Shoot, I Just Stock Picked!
« Reply #78 on: June 25, 2017, 08:11:30 PM »
Looks like I called that top and as predicted it's been a wild ride since then.  Short sellers continued their attack and the company floated a secondary to the tune of a 7% dilution.  After that bump in the road the SP has been in serious recovery mode the past week.

Trying to stretch a double into a triple, I'm calling for another wild week but this time to the upside.  We could see $40 by Friday.

I'd like to think I'm smart but I realize my calls have been pretty darn lucky. 
« Last Edit: June 25, 2017, 08:18:10 PM by Pizzabrewer »

talltexan

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Re: Shoot, I Just Stock Picked!
« Reply #79 on: June 26, 2017, 09:27:55 AM »
I'm making a bunch of mistakes lately, shifting money out of bonds into a natural resources play and Kroger. No results worth bragging on those, although there should be a dividend yield in excess of the bond yield. that yield is purchased with much greater risk.

Pizzabrewer

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Re: Shoot, I Just Stock Picked!
« Reply #80 on: July 12, 2017, 09:53:56 PM »
EXAS new all-time high. Taking aim at $40+.

farmecologist

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Re: Shoot, I Just Stock Picked!
« Reply #81 on: July 13, 2017, 07:50:29 AM »

Good call in EXAS! Looks like quite a few biotechs are doing well now. 

My $VRX long position holding is doing great...I got in around the low point.   There has been over 1.5 years of bearish sentiment that has just started to turn bullish.   All of the Ackman drama is gone now, new management, and they look to be ahead of plan on paying down debt.  Still risky though...but every biotech is.  If they can overachieve on their plan..this will fly.

Pizzabrewer

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Re: Shoot, I Just Stock Picked!
« Reply #82 on: September 01, 2017, 02:21:04 AM »
My latest facepunch-worthy trade:  JUNO.  Has had an astounding but IMO entirely unjustified run-up this week thanks to a buyout of another company (KITE) in the same space.  So I just bought 10 puts, September $40 (they expire in 2 weeks) for $1.50. 

I expect this will pull back to the low-to-mid $30s.

Meanwhile my workhorse EXAS continues to perform.  It closed today near $42.

Mr Mark

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Re: Shoot, I Just Stock Picked!
« Reply #83 on: September 01, 2017, 03:02:14 AM »
Just took a small position on a penny stock OMAG at $0.19 per share that may take off soon if their development project goes ahead after years and years of delay. Either that or they'll go bankrupt and in 6 months the stock will be worthless.

It's almost pure gambling. But huge upside if they finally pull off the deal.

YMMV

chasesfish

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Re: Shoot, I Just Stock Picked!
« Reply #84 on: September 04, 2017, 06:52:50 AM »
I bought a small stake in ADP against all of my desires to stop stock-picking.  Pershing Square bought 8% of the company and is taking the management to the woodshed for underperformance

www.adpascending.com

Pizzabrewer

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Re: Shoot, I Just Stock Picked!
« Reply #85 on: September 18, 2017, 11:55:54 AM »
As it is unseemly to brag about your wins and not mention your losses, I need to 'fess up.  My $40 puts in JUNO expired worthless so I'm out the $1500.  Logically this stock should have had a sharp correction as the run-up was entirely unjustified.  I'm reminded of the saying "the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent".

I've been on a remarkable winning streak so I can't be too upset.  But it still stings, at least a little.

talltexan

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Re: Shoot, I Just Stock Picked!
« Reply #86 on: September 18, 2017, 12:34:51 PM »
It's one thing to say in the abstract, "no one should trade individual stocks".

It's wayyyy more difficult to say, "I currently own 157 shares of Kinder Morgan, and I should sell those even though they may jump 20% when they hike their dividend next year".

Pizzabrewer

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Re: Shoot, I Just Stock Picked!
« Reply #87 on: October 02, 2017, 04:19:18 PM »
EXAS continues to be a beast. New all-time high today, right at the end of trading. A bullish sign if there ever was one.

Mr Mark

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Re: Shoot, I Just Stock Picked!
« Reply #88 on: October 02, 2017, 11:15:28 PM »
EXAS continues to be a beast. New all-time high today, right at the end of trading. A bullish sign if there ever was one.

What's your strategy for taking profit PB?

One of the nice to have 'problems' with good picks that take off is when to sell (& if selling, all or half?), double down or hold.

Pizzabrewer

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Re: Shoot, I Just Stock Picked!
« Reply #89 on: October 03, 2017, 07:46:24 AM »
Beast mode continuing this morning.

Mr Mark

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Re: Shoot, I Just Stock Picked!
« Reply #90 on: October 04, 2017, 09:34:41 PM »
Sold off my GSK and SHPG and trimmed my holdings in JNJ and DWDP. So now the play money is 1/3 in 'cash' while I figure out next trade. That may be to just add to my standard AA and reduce my play money as it's been going too well. Doubt I can sustain over performance. ..

Would like to pick up more OROCF (pure play lithium miner) but the stock is up a lot recently and so hoping for a dip...


Mr Mark

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Re: Shoot, I Just Stock Picked!
« Reply #91 on: October 05, 2017, 01:08:15 AM »
Overall the stock picking has been great so far.
1 yr returns were 16.8% vs the 'stache 12.7%
3yr annualised returns (so includes my huge hit on CRC earlier last year) 24.7% vs a boring 8.3%.

BUT dominated by a couple of really good pics - CRC PRU. And helped by more modest gains on OROCF, DOW and JNJ.

Now it's getting harder to find the gems. So as I said intend to pull back into mostly my AA indexes.

But it's been fun, and I'll hold the bets on OROCF and OMAG. Plus the safer dividends of NHI and WBG


farmecologist

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Re: Shoot, I Just Stock Picked!
« Reply #92 on: October 05, 2017, 08:12:50 AM »
Overall the stock picking has been great so far.
1 yr returns were 16.8% vs the 'stache 12.7%
3yr annualised returns (so includes my huge hit on CRC earlier last year) 24.7% vs a boring 8.3%.

BUT dominated by a couple of really good pics - CRC PRU. And helped by more modest gains on OROCF, DOW and JNJ.

Now it's getting harder to find the gems. So as I said intend to pull back into mostly my AA indexes.

But it's been fun, and I'll hold the bets on OROCF and OMAG. Plus the safer dividends of NHI and WBG

Our 1 year returns from stock picking 'this year' are stellar because of luck...and 'balls'.   We bought ARIA pharm around the low point when it crashed in late 2013 ( average around $3.50).  The company was bought out early this year for $24.  I say 'balls' because you really, really had to have them to hold long the entire time.   It is really hard to hold small, risky biotechs these days due to wall street manipulation!  If you watch the chart daily you can actually learn to see the manipulation.  Luckily, there was a really great group of folks on the IHUB message board that helped tremendously.

After the big payday I moved some of the winnings to ARRY, AUPH, ADXS, and VRX.  yes..that VRX - I was able to get in near the low point and have made a good profit from it.  However, TONS of people lost their shirt on it ( including Bill Ackman ).  :-)

I should put a disclaimer here though...this money was all earmarked as 'play' money that I don't really care if I lose.  You MUST have this mentality to play in biotechs..especially companies whose existence hangs on an FDA approval.  Huge risk/reward though. 

Also, as an aside, IHUB message boards can be great with the right group of people..but usually are not.  I also use StockTwits for 'entertainment purposes'.   StockTwits seems to mostly have 'day/swing trader' types on there and the noise gets tiresome quickly for longer term 'investors'.
« Last Edit: October 05, 2017, 08:15:14 AM by farmecologist »

xenon5

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Re: Shoot, I Just Stock Picked!
« Reply #93 on: October 05, 2017, 06:00:17 PM »
I invested in SSTI last week as my second ever stock-pick.  They sell gunshot detection systems for cities and public spaces (schools, airports, etc) that alert police of the exact coordinates of a shooting within moments.

Then Sunday night happened... and now I'm up 50% in one week.

It's a terrible coincidence, but I see a lot of value in this company given the current state of gun violence in the US and pressure on police to better serve high crime neighborhoods due to movements like BLM.  They're not profitable yet, but they're quite close, and they have no direct competition.

I mostly index, but I figure it's worth putting a small percentage of my net-worth in a few tiny companies that I strongly believe will grow.  At worst I'll slightly under-perform the market, and at best I might buy a ticket on a rocket-ship.

Pizzabrewer

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Re: Shoot, I Just Stock Picked!
« Reply #94 on: October 08, 2017, 06:04:21 PM »

What's your strategy for taking profit PB?

One of the nice to have 'problems' with good picks that take off is when to sell (& if selling, all or half?), double down or hold.

Yeah that is the question, isn't it?  I've been selling small amounts on the way up.  Yet the strong price action has kept EXAS at about 25% of our net worth.  A portion of the sales I've rolled into OTM long calls which potentially produce a multiplier effect.

Pizzabrewer

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Re: Shoot, I Just Stock Picked!
« Reply #95 on: October 08, 2017, 06:07:38 PM »
I'll hold the bets on OROCF and OMAG. Plus the safer dividends of NHI and WBG

I took a quick look at OMAG.  Holy cow, that is something I wouldn't touch with a 10-foot pole.  What's the case for an upside?

Mr Mark

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Re: Shoot, I Just Stock Picked!
« Reply #96 on: October 10, 2017, 02:52:22 AM »
I'll hold the bets on OROCF and OMAG. Plus the safer dividends of NHI and WBG

I took a quick look at OMAG.  Holy cow, that is something I wouldn't touch with a 10-foot pole.  What's the case for an upside?

yeah PB you are totally correct - it's a wild gamble - either they go broke in the next 6 months and I'll lose it all, or they have a breakthough, get the investor they need, and the shares will be a 10 bagger ++ in pretty short order.  I know some people close to the project and I think there's a chance they pull it off. But it's a lot less than 50/50. And I'm not risking the rent money.

Everyone should do their own due dilligence with any investment. :-)

farmecologist

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Re: Shoot, I Just Stock Picked!
« Reply #97 on: October 10, 2017, 08:06:08 AM »
I'll hold the bets on OROCF and OMAG. Plus the safer dividends of NHI and WBG

I took a quick look at OMAG.  Holy cow, that is something I wouldn't touch with a 10-foot pole.  What's the case for an upside?

yeah PB you are totally correct - it's a wild gamble - either they go broke in the next 6 months and I'll lose it all, or they have a breakthough, get the investor they need, and the shares will be a 10 bagger ++ in pretty short order.  I know some people close to the project and I think there's a chance they pull it off. But it's a lot less than 50/50. And I'm not risking the rent money.

Everyone should do their own due dilligence with any investment. :-)

Quite a few call picks like these 'lottery ticket' picks.   Your description above is spot on.




jacquespluto

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Re: Shoot, I Just Stock Picked!
« Reply #98 on: October 10, 2017, 09:15:16 AM »
I prefer selling time premium through option structures on the SPX.  Mostly some version of a broken wing butterfly. I feel like the "house" at a casino and my monthly returns are around 4-5%, yearly 50-60%. 

Right now isn't even a great time to be doing this with historically low VIX, yet I'm still making solid returns. I'm not yet at a point to throw the majority of my non-IRA portfolio at this, but getting closer every month.

ChpBstrd

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Re: Shoot, I Just Stock Picked!
« Reply #99 on: October 11, 2017, 08:47:58 AM »
I prefer selling time premium through option structures on the SPX.  Mostly some version of a broken wing butterfly. I feel like the "house" at a casino and my monthly returns are around 4-5%, yearly 50-60%. 

Right now isn't even a great time to be doing this with historically low VIX, yet I'm still making solid returns. I'm not yet at a point to throw the majority of my non-IRA portfolio at this, but getting closer every month.
I've been thinking about something like this for a long time, and would like to hear more about your approach. The point would be to tie earnings to something more reliable than stock market returns, such as time decay or risk premium. The trick would be to set up a strategy that works in isolation of the market's ups and downs. I've been considering primarily calendar spreads, butterflies, and verticals for their downside protection. In reality, I'm selling cash-secured puts and covered calls. However I'm also aware that it's easy to "prove" a strategy in a multi-year raging bull market, but that "plans rarely survive the first encounter with the enemy."