Author Topic: Shoot, I Just Stock Picked!  (Read 28389 times)

MrSpendy

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Re: Shoot, I Just Stock Picked!
« Reply #100 on: October 11, 2017, 09:02:12 AM »
Jacques,

selling vol in a declining vol environment will work until it doesn't. I am not sure it's possible to do this properly (which is to say to set up a ringfenced entity that is non-recourse to you) on a small individual scale.

depending on the amount of inherent leverage you are taking on through selling options, you could end up owing your broker money (not just losing 100% of equity, but actually losing more than 100%).

Can you detail the size of the trades (number of contract/notional exposure) versus how much capital you're holding against it to calculate the "making 50-60%" number?

I am curious, because I've thought about doing this and everytime I talk to someone who actually is doing it, they are taking on pretty big time leverage to make decent returns.

Pizzabrewer

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Re: Shoot, I Just Stock Picked!
« Reply #101 on: October 31, 2017, 11:16:05 AM »
And the beat goes on...

ILikeDividends

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Re: Shoot, I Just Stock Picked!
« Reply #102 on: November 07, 2017, 07:49:30 PM »
Hmmm. You don't think selling cash covered puts is gambling on stock?
If you do it correctly, it absolutely is not gambling; not any more than buying a stock outright is gambling.

The point is that you never want to write an uncovered put against a stock you don't want to own in the first place.

Reread this sentence until it sinks in: writing a naked put is the exact same thing as going long a stock, but at a lower price than the prevailing market price (the only caveat is that you don't collect dividends when writing a put, but that's irrelevant if the stock doesn't pay a dividend).

If the put option expires OTM, then you bank the premium, and write another put until you finally get a position in the stock you wanted all along.  And yes, this is pure gambling, but only if you never wanted a position in the stock in the first place.  If you DO want a position, it is a very prudent way to establish that position at a lower-than-market cost basis at the time you put the trade on.

Case study.  A year or so ago, FB was selling for $127 per share.  At the time, I wanted a position in FB, but not at $127.  I sold a 3 month put at a $125 strike for $500.  A couple of months later, FB briefly fell to $113 or so.  I was assigned.  So then I had a stake in FB at $120 per share (put proceeds are deducted from your cost basis in an assignment).  Nice.  Especially given that FB is over $170 now.  Even though I was underwater at assignment, I was 50% less underwater than I would have been at $127.

In retrospect, if I had bought at $127, I'd still be good.  But I'm even better off with an entry point of $120.

And yes, from the moment I wrote that put, until now, I am still long FB.
« Last Edit: November 08, 2017, 10:59:48 AM by ILikeDividends »

Mr Mark

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Re: Shoot, I Just Stock Picked!
« Reply #103 on: November 07, 2017, 09:25:30 PM »
Hmmm. You don't think selling cash covered puts is gambling on stock?
If you do it correctly, it absolutely is not gambling; not any more than buying a stock outright is gambling.

The point is that you never want to write an uncovered put against a stock you don't want to own in the first place.

Reread this sentence until it sinks in: writing a naked put is the exact same thing as going long a stock, but at a lower price than the prevailing market price (the only caveat is that you don't collect dividends when writing a put, but that's irrelevant if the stock doesn't pay a dividend).

If the put option expires OTM, then you bank the premium, and write another put until you finally get a position in the stock you wanted all along.  And yes, this is pure gambling, but only if you never wanted a position in the stock in the first place.  If you DO want a position, it is a very prudent way to establish that position at a lower-than-market cost basis at the time you put the trade on.

Case study.  A year or so ago, FB was selling for $127 per share.  At the time, I wanted a position in FB, but not at $127.  I sold a 3 month ITM put at a $125 strike for $500.  A couple of months later, FB briefly fell to $113 or so.  I was assigned.  So then I had a stake in FB at $120 per share (put proceeds are deducted from your cost basis in an assignment).  Nice.  Especially given that FB is over $170 now.  Even though I was underwater at assignment, I was 50% less underwater than I would have been at $127.

In retrospect, if I had bought at $127, I'd still be good.  But I'm even better off with an entry point of $120.

And yes, from the moment I wrote that put, until now, I am still long FB.

Sure. I understand how options work. But in your example if FB had not dropped to your put but instead climbed you would never have bought the stock and missed huge gains. Conversely if the stock had tanked you'd have caught the falling knife.

So disagree that it's "absolutely not gambling".

ILikeDividends

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Re: Shoot, I Just Stock Picked!
« Reply #104 on: November 07, 2017, 09:37:51 PM »

Sure. I understand how options work. But in your example if FB had not dropped to your put but instead climbed you would never have bought the stock and missed huge gains. Conversely if the stock had tanked you'd have caught the falling knife.

So disagree that it's "absolutely not gambling".
I said it's no more gambling than going long a stock is gambling.  If you want to establish a long position in a stock, selling naked puts is a way to do that more cost-effectively than buying the stock outright at prevailing prices.  And it can produce income when you fail to establish those long positions.

If you consider buying any stock at all as gambling, then I guess we're all gamblers, according to that definition.  I'm merely suggesting that there is a less expensive way to buy a position, i.e., gamble, if that's the term you prefer.  If you fail to establish that position, then you get paid for failing to do so.  I just don't see how that is a bad thing.
« Last Edit: November 07, 2017, 10:29:28 PM by ILikeDividends »

talltexan

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Re: Shoot, I Just Stock Picked!
« Reply #105 on: November 08, 2017, 07:12:56 AM »
Your username is ILikeDividends, but you're buying Facebook?

I suppose I shouldn't criticize, I'm actually only 5'8"

Retire-Canada

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Re: Shoot, I Just Stock Picked!
« Reply #106 on: November 08, 2017, 08:07:28 AM »
If you consider buying any stock at all as gambling, then I guess we're all gamblers, according to that definition. 

Buying a stock is like gambling. Buying an index is like owning part of the casino. I like the house's odds better.

ILikeDividends

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Re: Shoot, I Just Stock Picked!
« Reply #107 on: November 08, 2017, 10:23:07 AM »
If you consider buying any stock at all as gambling, then I guess we're all gamblers, according to that definition. 

Buying a stock is like gambling. Buying an index is like owning part of the casino. I like the house's odds better.
Yes, and to my point, you can write a put against that index, and it's equivalent to going long the index at a lower than prevailing price.  If  writing a put against that index is gambling, then so is "owning the casino" at an even higher entry price.  The written put just lets you buy the casino at a discount.  It really is no more complicated than that.
« Last Edit: November 08, 2017, 10:33:15 AM by ILikeDividends »

ILikeDividends

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Re: Shoot, I Just Stock Picked!
« Reply #108 on: November 08, 2017, 10:31:30 AM »
Your username is ILikeDividends, but you're buying Facebook?

I suppose I shouldn't criticize, I'm actually only 5'8"
I toyed with the idea of a "ILikeFacebook" handle, but I didn't want to put too much all into one position.  ;)

Truth be told, on the single stock side of my portfolio, I've made only 3 exceptions to buying dividend paying stocks; otherwise, I hold pretty firm to sticking with dividend payers.
« Last Edit: November 08, 2017, 10:54:18 AM by ILikeDividends »

Mr Mark

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Re: Shoot, I Just Stock Picked!
« Reply #109 on: November 08, 2017, 10:59:52 AM »
If you consider buying any stock at all as gambling, then I guess we're all gamblers, according to that definition. 

Buying a stock is like gambling. Buying an index is like owning part of the casino. I like the house's odds better.
Yes, and to my point, you can write a put against that index, and it's equivalent to going long the index at a lower than prevailing price.  If  writing a put against that index is gambling, then so is "owning the casino" at an even higher entry price.  The written put just lets you buy the casino at a discount.  It really is no more complicated than that.

But that's the thing - you're not buying the stock or the index. And when it rises you lose. Sure you get the premium to compensate somewhat but it doesn't make up the delta.

ILikeDividends

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Re: Shoot, I Just Stock Picked!
« Reply #110 on: November 08, 2017, 11:05:04 AM »
If you consider buying any stock at all as gambling, then I guess we're all gamblers, according to that definition. 

Buying a stock is like gambling. Buying an index is like owning part of the casino. I like the house's odds better.
Yes, and to my point, you can write a put against that index, and it's equivalent to going long the index at a lower than prevailing price.  If  writing a put against that index is gambling, then so is "owning the casino" at an even higher entry price.  The written put just lets you buy the casino at a discount.  It really is no more complicated than that.

But that's the thing - you're not buying the stock or the index. And when it rises you lose. Sure you get the premium to compensate somewhat but it doesn't make up the delta.
If stocks (or indexes) grew to the sky in a straight line, I might be convinced that collecting some premium in lieu of riding up with the index is somehow a loss.  But they don't.  So I'll be happy to look for an opportunity to write another put after the last one expires.  Eventually I will get a position at a price I like.

And to be clear, I'm not advocating using options to zig zag in and out of the market.  I like writing puts when I'm establishing a new position.  Just as with FB, once I get the position, I'm pretty much done.  Buying FB at 127 wouldn't have been a terrible move.  I just like owning it at 120 a little bit better.  ;)
« Last Edit: November 08, 2017, 11:20:52 AM by ILikeDividends »

Mr Mark

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Re: Shoot, I Just Stock Picked!
« Reply #111 on: November 21, 2017, 05:51:49 AM »
Overall the stock picking has been great so far.
1 yr returns were 16.8% vs the 'stache 12.7%
3yr annualised returns (so includes my huge hit on CRC earlier last year) 24.7% vs a boring 8.3%.

BUT dominated by a couple of really good pics - CRC PRU. And helped by more modest gains on OROCF, DOW and JNJ.

Now it's getting harder to find the gems. So as I said intend to pull back into mostly my AA indexes.

But it's been fun, and I'll hold the bets on OROCF and OMAG. Plus the safer dividends of NHI and WBG

Sorry I’ve been a bit tardy updating the stock picking action, just been darn busy at work lately.
After the recent continued run up (as I mentioned earlier) I decided to take profits and exit most of my individual stocks and increase the concentration in 1 stock – the lithium miner OROCF  - and the rest is back into the portfolio index mix.
 
I found that the dividend stocks that looked good and outperformed a while ago when I started getting back into the picking game have started to just mirror (or underperform) the wider market and figured I’d take my winnings now. Still have some cash waiting for an opportunity to pick up a couple of targets a bit cheaper than now. Problem is Thorstache keeps making the market go up... ;-)

Here’s the status of the picking account as of today*

OROCF
My favourite “I think I know better than the market, because electric cars, wind and PV systems are going to take off IMHO. Lithium ion is still the best game in town, and therefore Li is essential to the success of moving the world’s economy economy from molecules to electrons. OROCF has the cheapest Li mine on the planet and is a pure Li play.”
Bought 1700 @ $2.60 on 10/25/2016
Bought another 3500 at $3.59 10/26/2017
Now $4.55, so balance at $23,659 incl. a paper profit of $6,681 =  39% so far (they don’t yet pay a dividend)

OMAG
Wow, what a ride lately. Penny stock of a super dooper speculative real estate deal company that’s close to a net negative cashflow induced bankruptcy. Very poor liquidity to trade. Lots of insiders with most of the stock. But if they pull it off…
Bought 25,000 @ 19.2c
Now X so paper profit of $1,208 = 25% so far (they don’t yet pay a dividend)
But super volatile! In between buying at 19.2 cents and now, the stock went as low as 4.5 cents a share… uuuggghhh  on a tear last few weeks, so maybe someone knows something positive. Fingers crossed.

Other dividend stock holds:
NHI 
National Health Investment REIT. Bought  100 for $7750 (50 at $74.33 on 1/17/17 and 50 at $80.63 08/22/17) and it’s been paying me a steady 5% dividend ever since. Price hasn’t moved much. Up just $45 = 0.6%.
WBK
Westpac bank (Australia). Bought 263 @ $22.96 for $6,038 on 06/27/2017 and now up $318 = 5%. But paying a sweet 6% dividend.

*after some posts in investor alley being all snarky recently because we’re talking here about beating the market, a statistical losers game and very non-MMM/BH, please remember we are having a bit of fun and only playing with a very small % of the ‘stache. I do not advocate buying and selling individual stocks with your FIRE ‘stache. In my case specifically, IF I underperformed the market by say 50%, and market went up 20% and my stock picks 10%, the delta to my retirement stache would be… about -0.3% 

My 1 year return is 15%, whereas my main balanced index stache is up 16.4%. Ooops. Not so good. But, my 3 yr return is 24.3% vs 8%, and most of that is since start of 2016.
YMMV


Pizzabrewer

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Re: Shoot, I Just Stock Picked!
« Reply #112 on: January 05, 2018, 08:26:49 PM »
EXAS pulled back from its all-time high set about 2 months ago. But looking back over the last year's performance I can't complain about a brief period of consolidation. I think it's revving up for another run and predict it will top $100 in 2018.

chasesfish

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Re: Shoot, I Just Stock Picked!
« Reply #113 on: January 06, 2018, 05:49:40 AM »
I'll throw one out there, my favorite REIT has hit a 52 week low...

EPR

Most REITs are down some because of interest rates, but EPR is being hit due to fear about the movie industry.  The movie business was down 2% (gross revenue) and 5% (tickets sold) respectively, which is in the same range as other "down" years.  35% debt in this REIT, so it has a little leverage.   

jacquespluto

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Re: Shoot, I Just Stock Picked!
« Reply #114 on: January 06, 2018, 09:01:40 PM »
I prefer selling time premium through option structures on the SPX.  Mostly some version of a broken wing butterfly. I feel like the "house" at a casino and my monthly returns are around 4-5%, yearly 50-60%. 

Right now isn't even a great time to be doing this with historically low VIX, yet I'm still making solid returns. I'm not yet at a point to throw the majority of my non-IRA portfolio at this, but getting closer every month.
I've been thinking about something like this for a long time, and would like to hear more about your approach. The point would be to tie earnings to something more reliable than stock market returns, such as time decay or risk premium. The trick would be to set up a strategy that works in isolation of the market's ups and downs. I've been considering primarily calendar spreads, butterflies, and verticals for their downside protection. In reality, I'm selling cash-secured puts and covered calls. However I'm also aware that it's easy to "prove" a strategy in a multi-year raging bull market, but that "plans rarely survive the first encounter with the enemy."

Sorry, I'm just now responding to this.  I'm mostly trading broken-wing butterflies on SPX as well as Crude Oil futures.  I have a set target profit for each trade as well as a defined exit point.  These trades actually do better in flat or slightly declining markets - however, I'm setting them up with a slight bullish bias to take advantage of the current market.

I'm documenting my trades at RoamingOptions.com and I'm happy to help answer more detailed questions.
« Last Edit: January 06, 2018, 09:11:50 PM by jacquespluto »

jacquespluto

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Re: Shoot, I Just Stock Picked!
« Reply #115 on: January 06, 2018, 09:11:12 PM »
Jacques,

selling vol in a declining vol environment will work until it doesn't. I am not sure it's possible to do this properly (which is to say to set up a ringfenced entity that is non-recourse to you) on a small individual scale.

depending on the amount of inherent leverage you are taking on through selling options, you could end up owing your broker money (not just losing 100% of equity, but actually losing more than 100%).

Can you detail the size of the trades (number of contract/notional exposure) versus how much capital you're holding against it to calculate the "making 50-60%" number?

I am curious, because I've thought about doing this and everytime I talk to someone who actually is doing it, they are taking on pretty big time leverage to make decent returns.

mrsspendy -

Sorry I'm very late on the response as I forgot to check back in here.  I don't use margin so I have a defined risk.  Would never get into a position of a margin call or owing a broker. 

As far as the size of trades, for example right now I have a broken wing butterfly on the SPX for a total of 12 contracts.  This is a "3 lot' trade as the setup for each lot is 1 long put, 2 short puts in the middle, 1 long put.  The max loss on this trade would be around $9k ($3k per lot) and that would happen if the market were to drop 5%+ overnight.  If the drop happened over the course of a few days I would be out due to my defined exit strategy for that trade. 

I also use cheap out of the money VIX calls to help hedge the risk that the market opens up 5% down the next day.  This generally costs me $200-$300 per month and basically acts as insurance against a black swan event.

I'm documenting most of my trading on RoamingOptions.com and happy to help answer any other questions you have.
« Last Edit: January 06, 2018, 09:13:47 PM by jacquespluto »

Mr Mark

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Re: Shoot, I Just Stock Picked!
« Reply #116 on: January 28, 2018, 02:48:42 AM »
EXAS pulled back from its all-time high set about 2 months ago. But looking back over the last year's performance I can't complain about a brief period of consolidation. I think it's revving up for another run and predict it will top $100 in 2018.

I see you're down about 12% since then PB - you still holding on for $100?

Pizzabrewer

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Re: Shoot, I Just Stock Picked!
« Reply #117 on: January 28, 2018, 04:11:47 PM »
I see you're down about 12% since then PB - you still holding on for $100?

Short answer, yes.

EXAS gained over 300% in 2017 and has moved down and sideways the past 2 months due to short-term issues (including a bout of attempted manipulation by shorts).  The long-term outlook remains unchanged IMO.

At the risk of sounding like a pumper, the longer I'm in this stock the more I'm convinced it is a once-in-a-decade company.  The premise is remarkably simple, the market is huge (30-40 million adults who resist traditional CRC screening methods), the benefits to the health care market AND to patients are extraordinary, management has proven to be top-notch in their execution, and there is no competition for the forseeable future.  Plus they are working on new diagnostic tests for several other cancers with strong IP patents and working closely with the Mayo Clinic.

This stock is a buy-and-hold for the next 20 years.  In a decade $100 will look like a cheap entry price.

midwesterner1982

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Re: Shoot, I Just Stock Picked!
« Reply #118 on: January 29, 2018, 03:11:38 AM »
posting to follow

Pizzabrewer

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Re: Shoot, I Just Stock Picked!
« Reply #119 on: January 29, 2018, 06:39:51 PM »
So if anyone is interested in seeing what a short-seller's hit piece looks like:

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4140784-exact-sciences-corp-admit-early-science-held-back


Andrew Left is his name and he is a particularly sleazy short seller.  He took a shot at EXAS a few months ago and after a brief pullback it continued to climb in price.  Now he's taking another shot.

This entire article is garbage.  It is full of factual errors, misleading assumptions, unsupported innuendos; in short it is FUD of the highest order.  This kind of manipulation can be devastating to developmental-stage biotechs (one of the main reasons I no longer put money in those) but he's butting up against a real success story here.  This hit piece barely nicked EXAS stock today.

And for further entertainment, Left faced off against EXAS' CEO on CNBC last time he tried to shoot down the company.  The CEO handed Left his ass.  You can see the video here:

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/05/15/ceo-fires-back-at-short-seller-on-tv-mr-left-is-dead-wrong.html
« Last Edit: January 29, 2018, 06:48:26 PM by Pizzabrewer »

Pizzabrewer

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Re: Shoot, I Just Stock Picked!
« Reply #120 on: May 31, 2018, 08:20:13 AM »
Things have been quiet with EXAS for a few months. At least in terms of the share price. The company continues growing and executing very well and after a period of consolidation (down to the $40 range) the SP has been creeping back up.

Then yesterday the American cancer society recommended lowering the screening age for CRC to 45 and the euphoria has returned.


chasesfish

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Re: Shoot, I Just Stock Picked!
« Reply #121 on: June 01, 2018, 06:41:58 PM »
I traded KRE options twice this week...I didn't think Italy's bonds collapsing should have had any correlation with the regional bank index. 

Worked well

Pizzabrewer

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Re: Shoot, I Just Stock Picked!
« Reply #122 on: June 05, 2018, 06:47:44 PM »
EXAS set a new closing high today then set a new all time high in after-hours trading. Usually AH is meaningless but not in this case. They announced stellar results in a blood-based liver cancer test.

This company is in the early stages of becoming a health care behemoth. Their goal is to be the leading cancer detection company, targeting the top 10 cancer killers.

I ain't selling another share.

bwall

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Re: Shoot, I Just Stock Picked!
« Reply #123 on: June 05, 2018, 07:02:54 PM »
EXAS set a new closing high today then set a new all time high in after-hours trading. Usually AH is meaningless but not in this case. They announced stellar results in a blood-based liver cancer test.

This company is in the early stages of becoming a health care behemoth. Their goal is to be the leading cancer detection company, targeting the top 10 cancer killers.

I ain't selling another share.

If you're in to bio pharma cancer research stocks, I'd recommend LOXO, new listing, two products now in Phase II studies and smaller market cap than EXAS. They already have one marketing/sales agreement with Bayer. Ripe for a takeover, or better.

As always, do your homework.

Pizzabrewer

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Re: Shoot, I Just Stock Picked!
« Reply #124 on: June 05, 2018, 07:20:32 PM »
EXAS set a new closing high today then set a new all time high in after-hours trading. Usually AH is meaningless but not in this case. They announced stellar results in a blood-based liver cancer test.

This company is in the early stages of becoming a health care behemoth. Their goal is to be the leading cancer detection company, targeting the top 10 cancer killers.

I ain't selling another share.

If you're in to bio pharma cancer research stocks, I'd recommend LOXO, new listing, two products now in Phase II studies and smaller market cap than EXAS. They already have one marketing/sales agreement with Bayer. Ripe for a takeover, or better.

As always, do your homework.

Are they involved in cancer treatment or detection?  I've sworn off investing in companies developing new cures.  Way too risky.   
« Last Edit: June 06, 2018, 03:34:29 AM by Pizzabrewer »

bwall

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Re: Shoot, I Just Stock Picked!
« Reply #125 on: June 06, 2018, 05:24:28 AM »
EXAS set a new closing high today then set a new all time high in after-hours trading. Usually AH is meaningless but not in this case. They announced stellar results in a blood-based liver cancer test.

This company is in the early stages of becoming a health care behemoth. Their goal is to be the leading cancer detection company, targeting the top 10 cancer killers.

I ain't selling another share.

If you're in to bio pharma cancer research stocks, I'd recommend LOXO, new listing, two products now in Phase II studies and smaller market cap than EXAS. They already have one marketing/sales agreement with Bayer. Ripe for a takeover, or better.

As always, do your homework.

Are they involved in cancer treatment or detection?  I've sworn off investing in companies developing new cures.  Way too risky.

I think that most companies in this space now have to offer a diagnostic device if they are developing new medicines. However, I do see how it's a risky area. I read the reports and press releases and can't make heads or tails of them. My wife, who worked in a university cancer research department, reads them and tells me if it's good news or not.

For example, I read the two paragraph report of a competitor and couldn't figure out why the stock had dropped. My wife read it and told me that the problem was that it had gotten only a 'partial response' (basically meaningless) and not an 'overall response'. Or, what the difference is between 'first line, second line, third line, etc.' treatments are. This after reading a press release about a drug "meeting an unmet need for fourth-line treatments!" (basically useless from an investor's standpoint).

bwall

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Re: Shoot, I Just Stock Picked!
« Reply #126 on: June 06, 2018, 10:16:31 AM »
Pizzabrewer: The options activity is EXAS today is indicative of a big move (over $70?) between now and the June 15th. Good luck!

Pizzabrewer

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Re: Shoot, I Just Stock Picked!
« Reply #127 on: June 18, 2018, 07:53:27 AM »
Seven is a brand-new number.

Pizzabrewer

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Re: Shoot, I Just Stock Picked!
« Reply #128 on: June 18, 2018, 10:05:14 AM »
So in the interest of full disclosure....

My other stock pick at the beginning of this thread has been a dud.  I've lost 15% on KERX.  They still have the best drug in the space (phosphate binder for dialysis-dependent CKD patients) and a few months ago got FDA clearance as the only approved iron supplement for the chronically anemic pre-dialysis CKD population.  There've also been several studies released highlighting the benefits of anemia management, showing both the effectiveness of the drug and the overall health benefits to these patients who now largely go untreated.

Yet the management has proven incompetent to capitalize on the overwhelming good news.  The CEO was recently fired by the board and the company seems in turmoil.  I've lost faith in their ability to execute and my only hope at this point is a buyout by a big pharma.  So I've sold off most of my position and hold on to a bit in hopes of a miracle.

Which brings me to my new investment, TRXC.  They have the first new robotic surgical system to legitimately compete with da Vinci in the past 20 years.  Sales so far are negligible but they have been doing a great job of training surgeons on the system to build the broad acceptance that will lead to sales.  One notable recent sale was to the huge LSU/UMC facility in New Orleans, one of the leading medical training grounds in the country.  Surgeons who use the system do prefer it to da Vinci.  TRXC has a market cap of $800 million while ISRG (da Vinci) is $55 billion.  A gamble, yes, but with a big upside. 
« Last Edit: June 18, 2018, 10:12:35 AM by Pizzabrewer »

Retire-Canada

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Re: Shoot, I Just Stock Picked!
« Reply #129 on: June 18, 2018, 01:31:52 PM »
TRXC has a market cap of $800 million while ISRG (da Vinci) is $55 billion.  A gamble, yes, but with a big upside.

How much are you gambling?

Pizzabrewer

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Re: Shoot, I Just Stock Picked!
« Reply #130 on: June 18, 2018, 02:11:45 PM »
TRXC has a market cap of $800 million while ISRG (da Vinci) is $55 billion.  A gamble, yes, but with a big upside.

How much are you gambling?

A bit hard to calculate precisely as I have both shares and calls at several strike prices and dates. But probably 2 to 3 percent of our net worth.

EXAS continues to be a huge chunk of our NW. Historically it has been around 25% but with the recent runup it's probably over 30%.

Retire-Canada

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Re: Shoot, I Just Stock Picked!
« Reply #131 on: June 18, 2018, 02:22:47 PM »
A bit hard to calculate precisely as I have both shares and calls at several strike prices and dates. But probably 2 to 3 percent of our net worth.

EXAS continues to be a huge chunk of our NW. Historically it has been around 25% but with the recent runup it's probably over 30%.

Thanks for the info. It helps put the situation into perspective. If you'l indulge me with one last question where are you in terms of invested $$ vs. your FIRE $$ target?  Like if you are shooting for $1M and have $500K invested you'd be at 50%.

Pizzabrewer

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Re: Shoot, I Just Stock Picked!
« Reply #132 on: June 22, 2018, 05:48:21 PM »
A bit hard to calculate precisely as I have both shares and calls at several strike prices and dates. But probably 2 to 3 percent of our net worth.

EXAS continues to be a huge chunk of our NW. Historically it has been around 25% but with the recent runup it's probably over 30%.

Thanks for the info. It helps put the situation into perspective. If you'l indulge me with one last question where are you in terms of invested $$ vs. your FIRE $$ target?  Like if you are shooting for $1M and have $500K invested you'd be at 50%.

We're around 45% of our goal.

When we started getting serious about our finances 18 months ago we were at 20% so the increase has been remarkable. We're saving much more of our income (all new savings have been going into index funds) but the "risky" investments continue to power our growth. It's been a bit of a high wire act, EXAS alone has been the majority of the increase. And I've been cycling 0% cc debt to max our retirement accounts, for which I'm being mercilessly facepunched on another thread.
« Last Edit: June 22, 2018, 05:58:33 PM by Pizzabrewer »

Pizzabrewer

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Re: Shoot, I Just Stock Picked!
« Reply #133 on: June 22, 2018, 05:50:56 PM »
Huh. How 'bout that.

talltexan

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Re: Shoot, I Just Stock Picked!
« Reply #134 on: August 16, 2018, 09:10:18 AM »
I went into my brokerage account and sold all the individual stock positions I had left, putting the money into a small cap value index or two SP sector indices (telecoms and Consumer products). Going straight from here on out! Best of luck to you who are still in the game.

Pizzabrewer

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Re: Shoot, I Just Stock Picked!
« Reply #135 on: August 29, 2018, 11:56:42 AM »
So after EXAS reported Q2 sales slightly under guidance (but still 78% increase vs LY), Wall St punished the stock severely. It dropped below $50.

Then a week ago they announced a marketing partnership with Pfizer. Now the stock is setting new highs. I've gained about $40k in a week. About $30k of that was regaining lost ground. There's a lot of excitement that comes along with stock picking that's for sure.

KERX continues to suck.

TRXC continues to be a company on the rise. The stock now trades around $5.50.
« Last Edit: August 29, 2018, 11:58:19 AM by Pizzabrewer »

ChpBstrd

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Re: Shoot, I Just Stock Picked!
« Reply #136 on: August 31, 2018, 06:27:12 PM »
Certainly there is big money to be made and lost in small cap stock picking.

But has anyone noticed how attributions for stock picks that went down are typically "I picked the wrong stock" and attributions for stock picks that went up are typically "I am good at stock picking"? I.e. a losing bet is just a losing bet, but a winning bet implies something about the method.

Pizzabrewer

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Re: Shoot, I Just Stock Picked!
« Reply #137 on: August 31, 2018, 07:30:10 PM »
But has anyone noticed how attributions for stock picks that went down are typically "I picked the wrong stock" and attributions for stock picks that went up are typically "I am good at stock picking"? I.e. a losing bet is just a losing bet, but a winning bet implies something about the method.

Certainly not in my case.  I've never claimed credit for superior ability nor deflected blame when I picked a dog.

I've lost plenty of times in the past and have learned what I think are a few good lessons.  Will those lessons produce reliable winning results going forward?  I think so but chances are, probably not.  As small investors we certainly don't have access to much information. 
« Last Edit: August 31, 2018, 08:15:00 PM by Pizzabrewer »

Pizzabrewer

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Re: Shoot, I Just Stock Picked!
« Reply #138 on: September 04, 2018, 12:55:33 PM »
Well this stock is getting ridiculous. Setting new highs again today.

I'm getting the message and have been aggressively selling the past few trading sessions. I think even the most ardent bull would admit the valuation has gotten way out ahead of the fundamentals, good as they are.

Percolate

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Re: Shoot, I Just Stock Picked!
« Reply #139 on: September 05, 2018, 12:02:24 AM »
I'm getting the message and have been aggressively selling the past few trading sessions. I think even the most ardent bull would admit the valuation has gotten way out ahead of the fundamentals, good as they are.

I've made a number of good bets this past year or two in tech stocks and haven't been able to convince myself to pull out. I know I probably should count myself lucky having gambled and beat the market and take my winnings and go home, but it's tough, seems like they just keep going higher.

Cache_Stash

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Re: Shoot, I Just Stock Picked!
« Reply #140 on: September 06, 2018, 10:10:55 AM »
EXAS continues to be a beast. New all-time high today, right at the end of trading. A bullish sign if there ever was one.

What's your strategy for taking profit PB?

One of the nice to have 'problems' with good picks that take off is when to sell (& if selling, all or half?), double down or hold.

Personally, I don't every buy a stock without an exit strategy.  Goals have to be made or events happen etc....   

Here is one of mine for Appl:  I'll sell all of it if they ever buy TSLA.  I have others for Appl, of course.  I normally have about 5-6 metrics/events assigned.  The exit strategy changes as the company grows.  I revisit them about once a year.

meghan88

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Re: Shoot, I Just Stock Picked!
« Reply #141 on: September 15, 2018, 05:54:16 PM »
Shoot, I just kinda-sorta day-traded.  OK, not really day-traded, maybe week-traded.  There's a good REIT that has been showing consistent choppy performance, trading within a $2 range of its $26-ish average price within 3-5 days or so.  I've bought it at the lows and sold it at the highs twice now, for a 6.8% return within a couple of weeks.  It's actually a decent long-term hold that pays out 6.3% yearly, so if I screw up and get stuck with it, I'm OK with that unless things really go bad with it, which is unlikely because the parent is massive and is a great asset management company.  Also, it's within my self-directed RRSP, so no cap gains to declare.

Of course, now that I've gone on the record about this, it WILL start acting unpredictably, but I am not in it right now.  Just waiting for the next low, and being mindful of the next central bank interest rate announcement.

Pizzabrewer

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Re: Shoot, I Just Stock Picked!
« Reply #142 on: September 21, 2018, 07:53:43 PM »
It was announced yesterday that Medtronics (MDT) will buy Mazor (MZOR) for $58.50 per share.  This is a 10% premium over the previous day's closing price.  MZOR has traded as high as $73 in the past and was trading at $63 as recently as August 1.

Shareholders are (IMO rightly) incensed by the low buyout price.  This may be one of the rare instances in which the shareholders' voice may hold some sway.  MDT currently owns 11% of the stock and insiders and institutions another 23%.  So "retail" holds more than 50%.

The deal will probably go through as announced but there is a better-than-none chance the offer will be raised or another company will make a competing offer.

So I took a gamble and bought 30 October calls @ $60 strike, at 14 cents.  A low-odds speculation to be sure, but my $420 stake could potentially be a big payout.

Jeffwa365

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Re: Shoot, I Just Stock Picked!
« Reply #143 on: September 28, 2018, 04:03:52 PM »
I think stocks do derserve a place in every portfolio. Do you own a iPhone? So does everyone else. Why wouldn’t I own a few like 5 percent of my portfolio in individual stocks. Just do some research and buy good established companies. Don’t be a hater

Retire-Canada

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Re: Shoot, I Just Stock Picked!
« Reply #144 on: September 28, 2018, 04:43:49 PM »
I think stocks do derserve a place in every portfolio. Do you own a iPhone? So does everyone else. Why wouldn’t I own a few like 5 percent of my portfolio in individual stocks. Just do some research and buy good established companies. Don’t be a hater

Apple is great. The market agrees and because of that I do hold Apple as part of an index fund without having to do anything at all. Personally I use an Android phone, but I have that stock as well via an index fund.

Pizzabrewer

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Re: Shoot, I Just Stock Picked!
« Reply #145 on: December 03, 2018, 08:36:33 AM »
EXAS was in a months-long funk but as it is wont to do it came roaring back. New all-time high this morning.
« Last Edit: December 03, 2018, 08:38:14 AM by Pizzabrewer »

Blueberries

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Re: Shoot, I Just Stock Picked!
« Reply #146 on: December 03, 2018, 09:10:37 AM »
EXAS was in a months-long funk but as it is wont to do it came roaring back. New all-time high this morning.

It was consolidating.  I hope you aren't doubting your earlier profit taking; professionals sell into strength and aren't concerned with getting the absolute high.

gertitorpe

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Re: Shoot, I Just Stock Picked!
« Reply #147 on: December 09, 2018, 08:27:06 AM »
Hi all.
I don't like the idea of investing in ETFs. Love the US and their economy but my experience is that when I read everywhere to invest in "X" you are usually late from the party.

Why have I decided to go for stock picking? I live and work in Eastern Europe where saving 1mill USD from your salary is not realistic in the time frame I have set to retire. (between 35-40. I am now 30)
So I need higher return than the average to achieve my goals.

About 60% of my wealth is in the company (US tech) I work for. Some shares were assigned to me (almost for free) when I joined the company and the company performs well since then. Stock prices climbed about 300% percent in the past 5 years (rough estimate because the stock price was very volatile in the first 6 months. My biggest investment mistake was to sell about the half of the assigned shares too early and buying a car from the money received :) You can guess, I haven't heard about the blog at that time yet.

The other 40% is invested in individual stocks (no leverage) which are picked with my own quiet simple method. I am bad with spotting great companies but perform relatively well to acquire companies undergoing crisis and media hysteria. Whenever you meet you see big financial headlines on BBC.com there is money to make.

I do buy 3-4 stocks per year top and don't hold more than that in the same time so I can retain focus. Usually dump the share in 12 months when the crisis is mitigated. Not all picks are winners but I managed to gain around 20-25% in the past 3 years, including this year where I was lucky to buy the Turkish crisis and PCG in the right time.

This involves a lot's of thinking, reading Financial reports, earnings calls which I especially enjoy to do and courage to act when the stars are aligned.

The good thing about averages that there are always people who over perform them just us people who are stuck at average or below that.
Time will tell if I manage to beat averages on the long term or not.

Pizzabrewer

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Re: Shoot, I Just Stock Picked!
« Reply #148 on: January 31, 2019, 09:46:50 PM »

If you're in to bio pharma cancer research stocks, I'd recommend LOXO, new listing, two products now in Phase II studies and smaller market cap than EXAS. They already have one marketing/sales agreement with Bayer. Ripe for a takeover, or better.

As always, do your homework.

Hey that was a good call!  I hope you followed your own advice and had shares when the buyout was announced.

Congrats!

Pizzabrewer

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Re: Shoot, I Just Stock Picked!
« Reply #149 on: January 31, 2019, 09:53:50 PM »
EXAS is back in the fast lane setting new all-time highs all week.