Author Topic: Ruble vs Dollar Investing  (Read 20431 times)

hodedofome

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Re: Ruble vs Dollar Investing
« Reply #50 on: December 17, 2014, 04:11:59 PM »

Yeah jewels are a much better way to physically transfer wealth across borders. You can store A LOT of $$$ with just a few stones in your shoes. That's how the Europeans did it while running away from the Nazi's.

You can also get screwed quite easily buying shiny glass. Who can tell the difference between $1m in stones and $10,000 in glass? I know I can't and I doubt that I would ever acquire the capacity. I also know that in such stressful times the incentive to sell worthless glass is quite high, punishment almost nonexistent. Who is going to report their attempt to circumvent capital controls to the authorities?
Its something that you would plan for ahead of time. Only for really rich folks...

bwall

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Re: Ruble vs Dollar Investing
« Reply #51 on: December 17, 2014, 09:56:06 PM »
The Ruble rose today to 61 to the dollar. Putin is giving everyone one last chance to get in and short the ruble . . . . . . This will be fun to watch for the next few weeks.....

Cid47

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Re: Ruble vs Dollar Investing
« Reply #52 on: December 18, 2014, 12:03:38 AM »
Yeah, it's gotten crazy over here. That very same bank that was offering 14% in RUB and 7% in USD  has now hiked it's rates to 21% and 8% respectively.

Concerning prices due to inflation: I haven't noticed a significant (read: almost no) change in prices over the last few weeks. But I'm sure that's going to change soon. The news outlets are talking about weekly price hikes. We'll see...

edit: There are a few items that have seen some huge price hikes. The first one that comes to mind is buckwheat, which has jumped something like 150% in certain areas. You also just have many everyday items missing from the stores (mushrooms, tomatoes, lettuce, etc.)
« Last Edit: December 18, 2014, 12:08:48 AM by Cid47 »

mxt0133

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Re: Ruble vs Dollar Investing
« Reply #53 on: December 18, 2014, 12:35:30 AM »
Dam 21% interest rates.  What I would do to lock that in, assuming inflation is no where near that.

Scenarios like this make me want to get some gold coins and live in on a farm and learn how to garden.

dungoofed

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Re: Ruble vs Dollar Investing
« Reply #54 on: December 18, 2014, 01:39:06 AM »
Yeah, it's gotten crazy over here. That very same bank that was offering 14% in RUB and 7% in USD  has now hiked it's rates to 21% and 8% respectively.

Concerning prices due to inflation: I haven't noticed a significant (read: almost no) change in prices over the last few weeks. But I'm sure that's going to change soon. The news outlets are talking about weekly price hikes. We'll see...

edit: There are a few items that have seen some huge price hikes. The first one that comes to mind is buckwheat, which has jumped something like 150% in certain areas. You also just have many everyday items missing from the stores (mushrooms, tomatoes, lettuce, etc.)

As counter-intuitive as it may be, weekly price rises are better than the alternative, which is price controls for staples. See Argentina, Venezuela.

Let the free market run its course.

Zarya

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Re: Ruble vs Dollar Investing
« Reply #55 on: December 18, 2014, 04:37:56 AM »
I think the ruble is in for a wild ride and that these interest rates are a clear red flag. What I would do is go ahead and put some rubles in one of those high-interest accounts and use them in the local economy for my everyday purchases. But there's no way in hll I'd go rushing in with my dollars to buy rubles. I've lived as an expat too long and been burned enough by even moderate exchange rate fluctuations that it's not the kind of speculation I'd enjoy. (And my time has all been spent in countries with much better rule of law than Russia.)

For comparison, I'm an American expat living in a eurozone country. I have savings in USD and EUR but a carry trade housing loan in CHF, which is currently low interest (yay!) but killing us on the exchange rate (boo!). In retrospect, it was the lure of the lower interest rate that "sold" me on that loan, but during only one month of the six-year loan period (so far) have we been able to purchase CHF at a better rate than we borrowed. All the rest of the time it's been worse (and usually much worse, as you'll know if you've followed the CHF issue at all).

If we keep the loan for 30 years we may or may not come out even (lower interest costs and higher exchange rate may cancel each other out), but the tricky part is that it's really impossible to know or predict.
« Last Edit: December 18, 2014, 05:29:47 AM by Zarya »

Fallenour

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Re: Ruble vs Dollar Investing
« Reply #56 on: December 18, 2014, 05:18:39 AM »
The ruble will be down for a while guys.

I was betting on it and several currencies, but OPEC (mostly the saudis in a power play to break Shale Oil in the states) openly annouced via their Energy Minister they have every intention of driving the market down, and that they have absolutely no intentions of letting it recover until at least jun 5.

Ruble hit new low of 1:73.

17% Interest though? Ill buy treasuries for sure.

Rubles? Well...I was buying for the long game, so it was a great buy for me.

It's going to be a while before the ruble recovers, but it inevitably will.

Long game, huh?

So you're claiming you haven't gotten a margin call on your 200:1 leverage?

Actually no, not yet.

I have had to add a bit more cash to the pool though, but I already knew that ahead of time.

Fallenour

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Re: Ruble vs Dollar Investing
« Reply #57 on: December 18, 2014, 05:21:15 AM »
Not too portable above, say, 20-30 pounds. How much are you allowed carry on an airplane? How much can you carry in a suitcase? So, you're only good for up to half a million. If you want to move more than that, you're screwed. Time to buy diamonds or artwork. Good luck not getting screwed when you buy those, though.

20 pounds of gold, or about 300 ounces would be $360,000 US at recent prices.   I can carry 20 pounds on my person, heck I do that during the holidays after thanksgiving dinner.

I have read on the news that sales of luxury cars in Russia are up 50% as the rich try anything to get their money out of the ruble and into something that doesn't drop 10% per day.   The middle class has turned to IKEA furniture as a store of value.

20 pounds of gold would store a lot of rubles.

I agree with gilead on this one.

Of all the major means of storing currencies for long periods of time for safe keeping, platinum, gold, silver, and more recently palladium are the best means to do so.


DrF

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Re: Ruble vs Dollar Investing
« Reply #58 on: December 18, 2014, 10:58:43 AM »
As a U.S. citizen, isn't it illegal to leverage forex anything above 50:1?

http://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2010/09/02/new-cftc-forex-trading-rules-call-for-501-leverage/

Fallenour

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Re: Ruble vs Dollar Investing
« Reply #59 on: December 18, 2014, 11:16:39 AM »
As a U.S. citizen, isn't it illegal to leverage forex anything above 50:1?

http://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2010/09/02/new-cftc-forex-trading-rules-call-for-501-leverage/

As a US citizen buying on US soil? Yes. As a Non-US citizen, or as a dual citizen buying on foreign soil? No.

If you read into the Dodds Franks Wall street and CPA, you will notice the writings can and do only specifically apply to businesses registered in the US, or citizens of the US operating IN THE US.

The US doesnt hold authority to restrict the actions of foreign corporations trading in world exchange currencies. It would be impossible to limit.

Kriegsspiel

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Re: Ruble vs Dollar Investing
« Reply #60 on: December 18, 2014, 01:21:05 PM »
Just to play devil's advocate, the ruble has a few things going for it when compared to the USD. For starters it is backed by gold to a degree (USD is not backed by gold). And the RCB has a capital reserve rate of 12%, as opposed to that of the Feb which is something like 1-2% these days.
This collapse is indicative of why gold is such a pointless investment.

How much did gold shelter the Ruble from it's 20% devaluation over the last 48 hours?

Saw this linked on the PP forums:



From here.

Fallenour

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Re: Ruble vs Dollar Investing
« Reply #61 on: December 19, 2014, 07:38:25 AM »
10,000 USD at 73 Rub on 200:1 margin, prices at 63 for sell, 380k rub profitz, ~6k USD, *does electric slide across room*


waltworks

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Re: Ruble vs Dollar Investing
« Reply #62 on: December 19, 2014, 07:44:23 AM »
The orphans will be ecstatic!

-W

Fallenour

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Re: Ruble vs Dollar Investing
« Reply #63 on: December 19, 2014, 07:53:31 AM »
The orphans will be ecstatic!

-W

What?! There are orphans left!? I thought they were all sold to buy russian gold! QUICK! ROUND THEM UP! *rallies troops and sounds alarms*

Speaking of which, how about that 25% interest rate?

Nearly fell out of my chair when I saw it, but I figured something radical wasnt below vladimir.

They had already previously announced they would defer to internal lending and isolated economics if needed to survive "the winter".


Roland of Gilead

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Re: Ruble vs Dollar Investing
« Reply #64 on: December 19, 2014, 10:30:44 AM »
10,000 USD at 73 Rub on 200:1 margin, prices at 63 for sell, 380k rub profitz, ~6k USD, *does electric slide across room*

Cool.  At the Indian Casino last night I put $50 on number 19 and it hit!   $1750 USD profit. (and I got a couple of free drinks)

Fallenour

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Re: Ruble vs Dollar Investing
« Reply #65 on: December 19, 2014, 11:06:41 AM »
10,000 USD at 73 Rub on 200:1 margin, prices at 63 for sell, 380k rub profitz, ~6k USD, *does electric slide across room*

Cool.  At the Indian Casino last night I put $50 on number 19 and it hit!   $1750 USD profit. (and I got a couple of free drinks)

Key difference, I was betting on a guy who wants me to keep my money, not a guy who wants to get me shitfaced so I can screw up and they take it.

Chuck

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Re: Ruble vs Dollar Investing
« Reply #66 on: December 19, 2014, 05:34:34 PM »

Yeah jewels are a much better way to physically transfer wealth across borders. You can store A LOT of $$$ with just a few stones in your shoes. That's how the Europeans did it while running away from the Nazi's.

You can also get screwed quite easily buying shiny glass. Who can tell the difference between $1m in stones and $10,000 in glass? I know I can't and I doubt that I would ever acquire the capacity. I also know that in such stressful times the incentive to sell worthless glass is quite high, punishment almost nonexistent. Who is going to report their attempt to circumvent capital controls to the authorities?
We live in the Age of the Internet. Buy a good loop for 30 dollars (or >9000 Rubles) and then check out some online tutorials on how to judge diamond quality. Sure you might be worked over on a poorer quality stone, but no one would be able to sell you GLASS.

KingCoin

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Re: Ruble vs Dollar Investing
« Reply #67 on: December 20, 2014, 09:09:50 AM »
10,000 USD at 73 Rub on 200:1 margin, prices at 63 for sell, 380k rub profitz, ~6k USD, *does electric slide across room*

Sorry. You've been pounding the table telling us you're long the ruble since 52. At 63, that's a 21% loss.

You're free to claim that the got long the ruble at the absolute best moment to do so, but even in the extremely unlikely event that that's true, it's hard to attribute that to anything but dumb luck.

dungoofed

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Re: Ruble vs Dollar Investing
« Reply #68 on: December 21, 2014, 02:32:33 PM »
Hi Cid47 -

Not sure if you've seen this article which is currently doing the rounds:

http://thebillfold.com/2014/12/dollar-guilt-in-the-land-of-the-collapsing-ruble/


Fallenour

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Re: Ruble vs Dollar Investing
« Reply #69 on: December 23, 2014, 05:44:14 AM »
SHHHHHAAAANAAAAHNAAAAAAAAAAHHNNNAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHNAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAHh SHAAAAAAAAAAALLAAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHALAHHHLAHHHHH OOOOOOOOIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIY!!!! MY rubles made me a FORTUNE!

Sold my last batches of rubles.

*bows*

Didn't take as long as I thought all of Saudi Arabias meddling would take.

Poor canada though, those guys are screwed.

Ooo and now would be a great time to put out shorts on venezuela.

They will be bankrupting soon.