Let's take another look at Rocket Lab's revenue projections:
Rocket Lab Revenue Projections2021: $69MM ($49MM launch, $20MM space systems)
2022: $176MM ($115MM launch, $61MM space systems)
2023: $267MM ($141MM launch, $126MM space systems)
2024: $450MM ($232MM launch, $218MM space systems)
2025: $749MM ($399MM launch, $350MM space systems)
Astra Revenue Projections2021: $4MM ($4MM launch, $0MM space systems, 3 launches)
2022: $67MM ($47MM launch, $21MM space systems, 15 launches)
2023: $256MM ($206MM launch, $49MM space systems, 55 launches)
2024: $780MM ($619MM launch, $161MM space systems, 165 launches)
2025: $1.501B ($1.125B launch, $376MM space systems, 300 launches)
Virgin Orbit Revenue Projections2021: $15MM ($15MM launch, $0MM space systems)
2022: $70MM ($70MM launch, $0MM space systems)
2023: $331MM ($321MM launch, $10MM space systems)
2024: $914MM ($765MM launch, $148MM space systems)
2025: $1.554B ($1.24B launch, $314MM space systems)
One of the biggest ways that we will be able to measure the performance of these companies is if they can keep up with these revenue projections. As I mentioned in the previous post, Rocket Lab has realized $34.8MM in 2021 revenue and is on track for a total of $58MM in revenue for the year--$11MM less than their original projections in the investor presentation.
However, things look better for 2022. Yahoo Finance has average analyst 2022 revenue estimate at $209.33MM. That's actually
higher than what Rocket Lab themselves put in their own projections. Also, Rocket Lab is
adding a lot of additional revenue through acquisitions. SolAero alone could add another $80MM / year of revenue. That being said, the fact that Rocket Lab was able to buy them for just $80MM means SolAero must not be very profitable.
In any case, the odds look really good that Rocket Lab is going to be able to more than triple their revenue from 2021 to 2022! If we compare Astra's and Virgin Orbit's
extremely optimistic revenue projections to that, we'll see that in 2022 they will still be far behind Rocket Lab in terms of revenue:
Rocket Lab Revenue Projections2022: $176MM ($115MM launch, $61MM space systems)
2023: $267MM ($141MM launch, $126MM space systems)
Astra Revenue Projections2022: $67MM ($47MM launch, $21MM space systems, 15 launches)
2023: $256MM ($206MM launch, $49MM space systems, 55 launches)
Virgin Orbit Revenue Projections2022: $70MM ($70MM launch, $0MM space systems)
2023: $331MM ($321MM launch, $10MM space systems)
But yet, somehow, they are planning on going from far behind Rocket Lab in 2022 to matching or surpassing them in 2023! And it's not just that, but they are estimating a much higher proportion of 2023 revenue from launch.
How? Where is all this extra launch revenue in 2023 even coming from? And if all this 2023 launch demand does magically materialize, Rocket Lab should end up doing much better than they originally estimated, since they are relying much more on space systems to hit their revenue targets.
In conclusion, Rocket Lab seems to have a clear path to hitting their 2022 revenue projections, and their 2023 revenue projections are not massively higher than that--a 50% increase. In comparison, Astra and Virgin Orbit are projecting 282% and 373% revenue increases from 2022 to 2023, with the vast majority of that increase accounted for by launch. I strongly suspect that this launch revenue may simply never materialize, and Rocket Lab's revenue will remain far ahead of Astra and Virgin Orbit into 2023 and beyond. Rocket Lab is absolutely doing the right thing by focusing strongly on their space systems business rather than putting all of their eggs into the launch business.