Author Topic: Ready for a Correction  (Read 89818 times)

aspiringnomad

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Re: Ready for a Correction
« Reply #350 on: October 02, 2015, 11:57:42 PM »
I don't really care, still as scheduled for today rebalanced my TLH and last taxable savings for this year.

But can someone please tell me how we started this morning with -1.5% on a crappy jobs report and now we're up .5%

WTF is going on, there is no correlation to any relevant data. I think this was asked before, but who is responsible for the trading volume?


Ahh correlation.  I love that term, people spend soo much time and money trying to identify correlation between two independent variables, by looking at historical data.

This is why economics is considered a social science vs physics or chemistry.  Humans do not obey any universal laws as we are all different and react to the same stimulation differently.  We learn and adopt, so I find it comical when I work with so many 'smart' people that develop trading strategies based on historical data and complain that their correlation models are not working.  It works some of the time but the only constant is that it will continuously change.

Think Long-Term Capital in the early 90's.

Sorry if pedantic, but it was late-90's. Their models' tail risk didn't envision the Asian and Russian financial crises.

Mr. Green

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Re: Ready for a Correction
« Reply #351 on: October 05, 2015, 08:07:21 PM »
Another QE is a joke. Not going to happen.

Frugal D

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Re: Ready for a Correction
« Reply #352 on: October 06, 2015, 06:14:33 AM »
Another QE is a joke. Not going to happen.

QE4 + NIRP will happen.

Mr. Green

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Re: Ready for a Correction
« Reply #353 on: October 06, 2015, 09:17:41 AM »
Another QE is a joke. Not going to happen.

QE4 + NIRP will happen.
Maybe during the next recession. Just my opinion.

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Re: Ready for a Correction
« Reply #354 on: October 06, 2015, 09:29:36 AM »
hm, what happens if they did an interest rate hike alongside the QE? I know it doesn't make sense, but it might even it out and let people get used to the higher rate?

Mr. Green

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Re: Ready for a Correction
« Reply #355 on: October 06, 2015, 10:22:48 AM »
it might even it out and let people get used to the higher rate?
We're talking about a quarter of a point here. It's impact will be more symbolic than material. Why are people acting like credit markets will dry up and there will be wailing and gnashing of teeth?

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Re: Ready for a Correction
« Reply #356 on: October 06, 2015, 12:05:29 PM »
i thought you were talking 2-3%.

<1% to me makes no difference...

Frugal D

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Re: Ready for a Correction
« Reply #357 on: October 06, 2015, 03:21:19 PM »
You can't hike into a global deflationary backdrop.