Author Topic: This is when the market will stop dropping.  (Read 19609 times)

Buffaloski Boris

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Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
« Reply #150 on: May 23, 2020, 11:30:39 AM »
The S&P is up over 8% in the last month and it is back into positive territory for the last 12 months. Has it stopped dropping?

Edit: it is also up over 32% from its low!

I think the biggest retracement for a bear rally was something in the 60% territory.  It was during the Great Depression.  So a bear market rally can go up quite a bit and then go smashing down again.  Who knows if this one will.  My guess is that it will, but with Uncle Jerome backstopping the market and soothing it's boo-boos, who knows?

So, it could go up more, then go back down again? Or maybe it could go up, then go up some more?

I think it could also fluctuate. Always a good chance of that.

It could also go waaaaay up.  And it could go waaaaaay down.  And the chance it will fluctuate is about 100%. 

Buffaloski Boris

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Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
« Reply #151 on: May 23, 2020, 11:35:08 AM »
I am very appreciative to get to experience something like this.  Really cementing my belief in not trying to tine the market.  It is so hard to guess and it seems to be doing the opposite from what I expected.

Timing seems to be a sin in these parts, but I'm the first to admit being a timer.  More from the perspective of "I think prices for US stocks are way too high and offer too little potential return so I'm not interested at this time" version of timing. I also admit to cursing, not always composting my vegetable scraps, letting the shower run too long, and tearing the tags off of mattresses.   

GuitarStv

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Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
« Reply #152 on: May 23, 2020, 02:06:14 PM »
I am very appreciative to get to experience something like this.  Really cementing my belief in not trying to tine the market.  It is so hard to guess and it seems to be doing the opposite from what I expected.

Timing seems to be a sin in these parts, but I'm the first to admit being a timer.  More from the perspective of "I think prices for US stocks are way too high and offer too little potential return so I'm not interested at this time" version of timing. I also admit to cursing, not always composting my vegetable scraps, letting the shower run too long, and tearing the tags off of mattresses.   

Eventually you'll be right.  The question is always one of how much money you win or lose waiting for the prediction to come true.  History seems to favour people who just keep money in the market.

waltworks

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Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
« Reply #153 on: May 23, 2020, 02:44:08 PM »
Loss aversion is a good thing when your species evolved in survival mode, but it's not so great when you use that mindset investing. I know people who refuse to invest when P/E (or CAPE, or some other number they decided on) is above it's historical average. But a lot of those same people were too freaked out in the last crisis (where we barely even touched that) to invest anything anyway. So they just perpetually sit on the sidelines, or buy gold/hoard cash. Even a 75% crash would leave me ahead of them all at this point, and they'd probably be too scared to buy AGAIN.

That said, I'm currently trying (with new money, I have to be careful about capital gains for ACA reasons) to rebalance my international (much cheaper) vs US stocks. I'm not sure if that counts as market timing or not, but it's definitely the case that I'm not currently buying US stocks because they're so expensive (relative to international ones).

If they were both equally expensive I'd be buying them both, though, so maybe it's not timing.

-W


GuitarStv

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Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
« Reply #154 on: May 23, 2020, 02:59:09 PM »
Rebalancing is kinda the opposite of timing.  You decided long ago to sell/buy to hold a particular mix of stock.  It's really market prediction agnostic, so not timing.

Buffaloski Boris

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Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
« Reply #155 on: May 24, 2020, 09:41:35 AM »
Loss aversion is a good thing when your species evolved in survival mode, but it's not so great when you use that mindset investing. I know people who refuse to invest when P/E (or CAPE, or some other number they decided on) is above it's historical average. But a lot of those same people were too freaked out in the last crisis (where we barely even touched that) to invest anything anyway. So they just perpetually sit on the sidelines, or buy gold/hoard cash. Even a 75% crash would leave me ahead of them all at this point, and they'd probably be too scared to buy AGAIN.

That said, I'm currently trying (with new money, I have to be careful about capital gains for ACA reasons) to rebalance my international (much cheaper) vs US stocks. I'm not sure if that counts as market timing or not, but it's definitely the case that I'm not currently buying US stocks because they're so expensive (relative to international ones).

If they were both equally expensive I'd be buying them both, though, so maybe it's not timing.

-W

Sounds like semantics to me.  I'd rather just own up to my market timing ways.  I think it's a lousy time to buy or own US equities.  So I don't.  I think it's an OK time to buy or own international equities. So I do.  I also think it's a pretty fair time to hold cash given a low inflation rate. Any or all of those could change.     

Retire-Canada

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Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
« Reply #156 on: May 24, 2020, 09:46:36 AM »
Rebalancing is kinda the opposite of timing.  You decided long ago to sell/buy to hold a particular mix of stock.  It's really market prediction agnostic, so not timing.

Yup. I'm buying international equities when I add $$ to my investments as well. They are below my US & CDN equities in terms of my AA so they get my $$. At some point I'll buy US equities again when they are the below my planned AA.
« Last Edit: May 24, 2020, 09:54:49 AM by Retire-Canada »

GuitarStv

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Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
« Reply #157 on: May 24, 2020, 09:49:01 AM »
Loss aversion is a good thing when your species evolved in survival mode, but it's not so great when you use that mindset investing. I know people who refuse to invest when P/E (or CAPE, or some other number they decided on) is above it's historical average. But a lot of those same people were too freaked out in the last crisis (where we barely even touched that) to invest anything anyway. So they just perpetually sit on the sidelines, or buy gold/hoard cash. Even a 75% crash would leave me ahead of them all at this point, and they'd probably be too scared to buy AGAIN.

That said, I'm currently trying (with new money, I have to be careful about capital gains for ACA reasons) to rebalance my international (much cheaper) vs US stocks. I'm not sure if that counts as market timing or not, but it's definitely the case that I'm not currently buying US stocks because they're so expensive (relative to international ones).

If they were both equally expensive I'd be buying them both, though, so maybe it's not timing.

-W

Sounds like semantics to me.  I'd rather just own up to my market timing ways.  I think it's a lousy time to buy or own US equities.  So I don't.  I think it's an OK time to buy or own international equities. So I do.  I also think it's a pretty fair time to hold cash given a low inflation rate. Any or all of those could change.     

Again, eventually you'll be right.  Historically people aren't very good at capitalizing on the times they're right though, and end up missing out on a lot of the gains.

waltworks

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Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
« Reply #158 on: May 24, 2020, 10:15:45 AM »
Sounds like semantics to me.  I'd rather just own up to my market timing ways.  I think it's a lousy time to buy or own US equities.  So I don't.  I think it's an OK time to buy or own international equities. So I do.  I also think it's a pretty fair time to hold cash given a low inflation rate. Any or all of those could change.     

I think if I was truly market timing I'd be selling US equities, though, right? I mean, I agree that they're overvalued. But I've thought that for at least the last 5 years and maybe longer. I'm glad I didn't stop buying them in the past, so maybe I'm making a mistake now.

That said, I'm trying to be around 60/40 US/Int'l and it's gotten all out of whack so just like you I'm buying int'l.

-W

Stachless

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Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
« Reply #159 on: May 27, 2020, 09:34:59 PM »
We *should* all agree that the premise of this thread didn't pan out.  100k+ Covid19 deaths in USA and Dow nearing 26k, S&P over 3k.  The best-laid plans of mice and men often go awry.

Retire-Canada

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Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
« Reply #160 on: May 27, 2020, 09:46:40 PM »
The market will stop dropping when:

1) We get a vaccine for Covid-19
OR
2) It's run it's course in the USA or perceived to be over, 'peaked', whatever.

As long as Covid-19 is still rising in the USA, then this means that there is bad news yet to come. For those who (erroneously) subscribe to the efficient market hypothesis, there is lots of bad news yet to be baked into the market price of stocks. There is lots more hand-wringing, finger pointing and blaming to go around. Perhaps even a few high profile bankruptcies. But, there will also be low profile fortunes made (who's gonna come out and say that they got rich off this illness?), so indexers will be on balance, well, even.

As I write this, the DOW is at 22,104 (up 904 points) on the day. For traders, this is a good opportunity to get out because you will have lots of opportunity to get back in at lower prices.
For long term investors, there's no wrong answer, as 'this too shall pass'. Prepare to empty the piggy bank as soon it will be a great time to load up on stocks, once the smoke has cleared.

OP above. Here is the S&P for the period roughly from the first post until today.


dragoncar

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Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
« Reply #161 on: May 28, 2020, 01:20:57 AM »


OP above. Here is the S&P for the period roughly from the first post until today.

Ooh, is this going to be the new https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/welp-i'm-going-to-take-a-stab-at-timing-the-market/550/ ?

GuitarStv

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Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
« Reply #162 on: May 28, 2020, 05:12:15 AM »
The market will stop dropping when:

1) We get a vaccine for Covid-19
OR
2) It's run it's course in the USA or perceived to be over, 'peaked', whatever.

As long as Covid-19 is still rising in the USA, then this means that there is bad news yet to come. For those who (erroneously) subscribe to the efficient market hypothesis, there is lots of bad news yet to be baked into the market price of stocks. There is lots more hand-wringing, finger pointing and blaming to go around. Perhaps even a few high profile bankruptcies. But, there will also be low profile fortunes made (who's gonna come out and say that they got rich off this illness?), so indexers will be on balance, well, even.

As I write this, the DOW is at 22,104 (up 904 points) on the day. For traders, this is a good opportunity to get out because you will have lots of opportunity to get back in at lower prices.
For long term investors, there's no wrong answer, as 'this too shall pass'. Prepare to empty the piggy bank as soon it will be a great time to load up on stocks, once the smoke has cleared.

OP above. Here is the S&P for the period roughly from the first post until today.

To be fair, I would have agreed with the assertions of the OP . . . it seemed like a great time to get out of the market.  Worldwide pandemic and massive unemployment certainly make it seem like a rational market would go down.  But the market isn't and never has been rational.  If it was, it would be easy to make zillions as an active trader.

This is a good example of why market timing isn't usually a great idea.

bwall

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Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
« Reply #163 on: May 28, 2020, 07:37:13 AM »
The market will stop dropping when:

1) We get a vaccine for Covid-19
OR
2) It's run it's course in the USA or perceived to be over, 'peaked', whatever.

As long as Covid-19 is still rising in the USA, then this means that there is bad news yet to come. For those who (erroneously) subscribe to the efficient market hypothesis, there is lots of bad news yet to be baked into the market price of stocks. There is lots more hand-wringing, finger pointing and blaming to go around. Perhaps even a few high profile bankruptcies. But, there will also be low profile fortunes made (who's gonna come out and say that they got rich off this illness?), so indexers will be on balance, well, even.

As I write this, the DOW is at 22,104 (up 904 points) on the day. For traders, this is a good opportunity to get out because you will have lots of opportunity to get back in at lower prices.
For long term investors, there's no wrong answer, as 'this too shall pass'. Prepare to empty the piggy bank as soon it will be a great time to load up on stocks, once the smoke has cleared.

Bump.

The above criteria still have not been met. DJIA closed yesterday at 19,174. Look for it to keep dropping in the coming week.

The DJIA closed at 21,636 on Friday, Mar. 27th, up 2500 points on the week. It appears as if the market interpreted the $2.2 trillion (thats $2,200,000,000,000) stimulus plan passed on the 24th as the criteria for #2 above and so it rallied strong on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday, before dropping on Friday.

If you think that $2.2 trillion meet criteria #2 above, then you should buy.
If you think that $2.2 trillion does NOT meet the criteria for #2, then you should wait.

Time will tell.

Please see above post made four days after the market low in March. You can see where I spelled out a course of action depending on your interpretation of events.

Also, a graph without labels on the axis is rather meaningless.

Wintergreen78

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Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
« Reply #164 on: May 28, 2020, 08:03:24 AM »
The market will stop dropping when:

1) We get a vaccine for Covid-19
OR
2) It's run it's course in the USA or perceived to be over, 'peaked', whatever.

As long as Covid-19 is still rising in the USA, then this means that there is bad news yet to come. For those who (erroneously) subscribe to the efficient market hypothesis, there is lots of bad news yet to be baked into the market price of stocks. There is lots more hand-wringing, finger pointing and blaming to go around. Perhaps even a few high profile bankruptcies. But, there will also be low profile fortunes made (who's gonna come out and say that they got rich off this illness?), so indexers will be on balance, well, even.

As I write this, the DOW is at 22,104 (up 904 points) on the day. For traders, this is a good opportunity to get out because you will have lots of opportunity to get back in at lower prices.
For long term investors, there's no wrong answer, as 'this too shall pass'. Prepare to empty the piggy bank as soon it will be a great time to load up on stocks, once the smoke has cleared.

Bump.

The above criteria still have not been met. DJIA closed yesterday at 19,174. Look for it to keep dropping in the coming week.

The DJIA closed at 21,636 on Friday, Mar. 27th, up 2500 points on the week. It appears as if the market interpreted the $2.2 trillion (thats $2,200,000,000,000) stimulus plan passed on the 24th as the criteria for #2 above and so it rallied strong on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday, before dropping on Friday.

If you think that $2.2 trillion meet criteria #2 above, then you should buy.
If you think that $2.2 trillion does NOT meet the criteria for #2, then you should wait.

Time will tell.

Please see above post made four days after the market low in March. You can see where I spelled out a course of action depending on your interpretation of events.

Also, a graph without labels on the axis is rather meaningless.

You have a good point. You started this thread with a pretty definite statement, you thought the Dow would decline, so traders should sell. Since then, you havenít made any definitive statements about whether it makes sense for traders to buy back in or not. You said it could go either way, and people should decide for themselves and act accordingly. If you are going to trade actively, youíve got to make a definite decision when to buy back in as well as a definite decision when to sell. Based on what youíve posted here, it seems like you havenít decided to buy back in yet.

The Dow is up over 33% from its low. It seems to me, missing a 33% positive move is pretty bad, if you want to actively trade on short-term market volatility.

bwall

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Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
« Reply #165 on: May 28, 2020, 03:16:05 PM »
Clearly I'm not perfect. I'll be the first to admit that and I'm sorry if I gave anyone the impression I was infallible.

And, I'm not a professional money manager, or anything of the sort. I can't tell someone how to run their money; when to buy or when to sell. The best I can provide is the decision making tools to let someone make the best decision in their mind. Then they know why they've made the decision--after all, they have to live with the results of their decision, not me.

I was trying to provide guidance about market conditions and I think I did OK. You are welcome to your own opinion about that--no need to discuss opinions here.

But, to touch on the last point you made, in my private actively traded account I just checked and see that to date I have outperformed the S&P 500 by 24% since Jan. 1st, 2020 and the DOW by 29% in the same time period.

waltworks

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Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
« Reply #166 on: May 28, 2020, 03:25:01 PM »
Awesome. Get back to us in 20 years. I'll keep buying and ignoring the news.

-W

dragoncar

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Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
« Reply #167 on: May 28, 2020, 03:59:42 PM »

I was trying to provide guidance about market conditions and I think I did OK.

You are welcome to your own opinion about that--no need to discuss opinions here.


No you really did terribly.  I agree with guitarstv that my gut feeling aligned with your instincts.  But Iím not going to provide guidance to anybody based on my gut feeling, which was wrong.

This entire thread is just discussing your opinions.  No need to discuss our own opinions?

And no, massive stimulus isnít the same as covid ďpeaking or perceived to peak.Ē  Itís the exact opposite, as massive stimulus is a reaction to worsening conditions.  And any graph will show it hadnít  peaked yet in march

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
« Reply #168 on: May 30, 2020, 02:02:36 AM »
...
But, to touch on the last point you made, in my private actively traded account I just checked and see that to date I have outperformed the S&P 500 by 24% since Jan. 1st, 2020 and the DOW by 29% in the same time period.
Nobody can verify your after the fact claims of investment performance.  What if I claim I bought stock in Dine Brands (DIN) back near the bottom, and it doubled since then?

But here's my constructive suggestion: instead of doing that, I tracked 3 of my active picks as an experiment, and reported how they've done over time.  On Friday alone, they went from beating the S&P 500 by +7% to losing against it -5% by market close.  Since I told everyone the start of the experiment, anyone can verify the stock prices of DIN / M / DXPE for themselves, and see if I've been accurate.  Why not try that, with some limited part of your portfolio?

vand

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Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
« Reply #169 on: May 31, 2020, 01:55:57 AM »
There is the old quote "what feels comfortable is rarely profitable."

This thread has been a perfect reflection of general investor sentiment and doing what is most comfortable rather than what has historically shown to be most profitable as we go through a downswing and upswing cycle, and shows why most people who fancy themselves to have a bit a contrarian streak about them actually fall to pieces like a deer caught in the headlights when the moment comes to to pull the trigger.

The real contrarians are those who don't wait for a bottom - they are happy to unflinchingly dump their money into the market AS it continues to fall, comfortable in the knowledge that there is no way to be able to pick the bottom.

clarkfan1979

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Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
« Reply #170 on: June 02, 2020, 12:35:36 AM »
I totally disagree. The market will rebound long before the crisis is over. The "bottom" typically arrives when things look their worst.

The economy was horrible in 1932. Banks were failing and the great depression had about another decade to go... but that was the bottom for the S&P 500.

In 1982, the government had just strangled business' ability to borrow with double-digit rates on treasuries and inflation was still raging. Bankruptcies were everywhere. Nobody wanted stocks in those circumstances... and it was the bottom.

Another bottom came in March 2009 while unemployment and mortgage defaults were still rising at a rapid pace and people were questioning whether capitalism would even continue.

Maybe your interest is purely academic, but if you are sitting on cash until the world's problems are all resolved, you'll end up in the same boat as people who've posted here about sitting in cash since 2008 waiting for the right time.

+1

vand

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Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
« Reply #171 on: June 02, 2020, 11:50:49 AM »
He used to be referred to as the "UK's Warren Buffett" - Anthony Bolton.

I still make it a point to check in on the "quiet assassin" every so often, and it looks like, in stark contrast to Buffett & Munger, he is still as sharp as ever:

https://www.ft.com/content/10cf9ace-10f1-47e1-9fb4-6ccc25ef550a


*puts on Yoda voice:* Learn from such assured wisdom, we must.

Full_Beard

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Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
« Reply #172 on: June 02, 2020, 11:18:36 PM »
Buffet and Munger aren't sharp anymore? Come on, because they don't agree with your optimism?

Wintergreen78

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Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
« Reply #173 on: June 03, 2020, 03:18:18 PM »
Itís official! You missed the biggest 50 days in the history of the SP500!
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/03/this-is-the-greatest-50-day-rally-in-the-history-of-the-sp-500.html

When will it stop dropping?

Stachless

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Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
« Reply #174 on: June 03, 2020, 06:09:55 PM »
Turns out the OP missed the exact intra-day low by a mere 10 days.

OP, please come to The Top Is In thread and you shall be worshiped as a god!!

vand

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Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
« Reply #175 on: June 07, 2020, 03:05:27 AM »
Buffet and Munger aren't sharp anymore? Come on, because they don't agree with your optimism?

I'm can't say I'm impressed by their recent stewardship of Berkshire.

I think this is a very fair appraisal:

https://alephblog.com/2020/05/12/the-challenge-for-warren-buffett/

Ultimately father time catches up with everyone, and I think the Buffett & Munger understand the world today much less than they did a decade and more ago.

Wintergreen78

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Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
« Reply #176 on: June 08, 2020, 09:16:05 AM »
Is the SP500 going to finish this week positive for the year? Get your bets in today!

dragoncar

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Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
« Reply #177 on: June 08, 2020, 11:44:05 PM »
Is the SP500 going to finish this week positive for the year? Get your bets in today!

I bet yes.  However, I do not think anyone should trade based on my bet.

Aegishjalmur

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Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
« Reply #178 on: June 09, 2020, 09:20:12 AM »
As of the date this post was started on March 13 the S&P was at 2711.02

The low for the S&P was ten days later on March 23 when it reached 2237.40.


By April 8 it had already returned to 2749.98, which was higher than it had been when the initial post was made. Since then it has remained above that level.

As of right now, 6/9 at 9:04 am MT, it is at 3214.42, so nearly 1,000 points up from the low.

This is why I do not attempt to time the market, it moves too fast for anyone to really predict. Could someone make a good amount of money by having sold on the way down and bought in when it was lower? Sure, but that really is more dumb luck than skill. Depending on how long it takes your brokerage to process your sales and purchases and even if you were almost perfect in timing the  market, you may still not have made anything or may have lost more.

I think the big thing with the coronovirus  and it's impact on the markets is that people need to take a hard look at their risk tolerances. If they panicked, they may want to look at how much they have is stocks vs CD's and cash equivalents or look at what type of stocks their stock portfolio is made up of. I am FIRE'd with 100% stocks and I still feel comfortable with that.

Wintergreen78

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Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
« Reply #179 on: June 11, 2020, 02:35:21 PM »
Is the SP500 going to finish this week positive for the year? Get your bets in today!

I bet yes.  However, I do not think anyone should trade based on my bet.

Well, my trading strategy of looking at the trend for the last few days and assuming it will continue seems to have broken down. It went down today, so Iím pretty sure next week it will keep dropping. I think it is time to sell and wait for a bottom before getting back in.

dragoncar

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Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
« Reply #180 on: June 11, 2020, 06:06:21 PM »
Is the SP500 going to finish this week positive for the year? Get your bets in today!

I bet yes.  However, I do not think anyone should trade based on my bet.

Well, my trading strategy of looking at the trend for the last few days and assuming it will continue seems to have broken down. It went down today, so Iím pretty sure next week it will keep dropping. I think it is time to sell and wait for a bottom before getting back in.

Actually I misread the question.  I was betting it would end positive for the year, meaning net gain in 2020.  Didnít even consider this week timescale

Wintergreen78

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Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
« Reply #181 on: June 11, 2020, 06:12:07 PM »
Is the SP500 going to finish this week positive for the year? Get your bets in today!

I bet yes.  However, I do not think anyone should trade based on my bet.

Well, my trading strategy of looking at the trend for the last few days and assuming it will continue seems to have broken down. It went down today, so Iím pretty sure next week it will keep dropping. I think it is time to sell and wait for a bottom before getting back in.

Actually I misread the question.  I was betting it would end positive for the year, meaning net gain in 2020.  Didnít even consider this week timescale

Successful traders have to be nimble. A year is a ridiculously long time frame. Youíve got to be able to react Instantly.

dragoncar

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Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
« Reply #182 on: June 11, 2020, 06:56:50 PM »
Is the SP500 going to finish this week positive for the year? Get your bets in today!

I bet yes.  However, I do not think anyone should trade based on my bet.

Well, my trading strategy of looking at the trend for the last few days and assuming it will continue seems to have broken down. It went down today, so Iím pretty sure next week it will keep dropping. I think it is time to sell and wait for a bottom before getting back in.

Actually I misread the question.  I was betting it would end positive for the year, meaning net gain in 2020.  Didnít even consider this week timescale

Successful traders have to be nimble. A year is a ridiculously long time frame. Youíve got to be able to react Instantly.

Thatís why I like to react preemptively

Wintergreen78

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Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
« Reply #183 on: June 11, 2020, 10:00:29 PM »
Is the SP500 going to finish this week positive for the year? Get your bets in today!

I bet yes.  However, I do not think anyone should trade based on my bet.

Well, my trading strategy of looking at the trend for the last few days and assuming it will continue seems to have broken down. It went down today, so Iím pretty sure next week it will keep dropping. I think it is time to sell and wait for a bottom before getting back in.

Actually I misread the question.  I was betting it would end positive for the year, meaning net gain in 2020.  Didnít even consider this week timescale

Successful traders have to be nimble. A year is a ridiculously long time frame. Youíve got to be able to react Instantly.

Thatís why I like to react preemptively

Preemptive Reaction! I saw them open for Prong back in the day.

Wintergreen78

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Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
« Reply #184 on: June 30, 2020, 06:30:17 PM »
We just ended the best quarter in 22 years. When will the market stop dropping?

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-news-live-july-1-2020-221322505.html

ender

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Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
« Reply #185 on: June 30, 2020, 07:44:17 PM »
We just ended the best quarter in 22 years. When will the market stop dropping?

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-news-live-july-1-2020-221322505.html

well, talk about a misleading way to describe things.

Wintergreen78

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Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
« Reply #186 on: June 30, 2020, 09:40:33 PM »
We just ended the best quarter in 22 years. When will the market stop dropping?

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-news-live-july-1-2020-221322505.html

well, talk about a misleading way to describe things.

What is misleading? The S&P 500 is up 25.5% for the last quarter by my math.

Full_Beard

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Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
« Reply #187 on: July 01, 2020, 12:40:20 AM »
What is misleading? The S&P 500 is up 25.5% for the last quarter by my math.
It ignores that the 2nd quarter followed the worst first quarter (for the SP500) since 2008 and the YTD return (factoring in dividends) is less than 1%.

There are articles predicting DOW at 30,000 by 1/1/2021 and others that it will be down to 20,000 or less. Right now, fundamentals aren't in play (or barely in play), weird things are happening (e.g., HTZ and ZM prices), and there's a lot of uncertainty (pandemic, unemployment, bankruptcies, Fed's magic, future stimuli, etc.), so how this plays out is a complete guess.

Wintergreen78

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Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
« Reply #188 on: July 01, 2020, 07:22:15 AM »
What is misleading? The S&P 500 is up 25.5% for the last quarter by my math.
It ignores that the 2nd quarter followed the worst first quarter (for the SP500) since 2008 and the YTD return (factoring in dividends) is less than 1%.

There are articles predicting DOW at 30,000 by 1/1/2021 and others that it will be down to 20,000 or less. Right now, fundamentals aren't in play (or barely in play), weird things are happening (e.g., HTZ and ZM prices), and there's a lot of uncertainty (pandemic, unemployment, bankruptcies, Fed's magic, future stimuli, etc.), so how this plays out is a complete guess.

So you are saying that it is really hard to predict what will happen? Thatís what Iíve been saying too! It is completely absurd to try and predict if there will be another 10, 20 ,30% drop in the next few years. Itís equally absurd to try and make a pronouncement that you can predict when the market will stop dropping and start going back up.

What I posted wasnít a prediction, just a note that that the S&P 500 has gone up 25% in the last three months.

bthewalls

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Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
« Reply #189 on: July 01, 2020, 03:18:36 PM »
where did I once read that the year before the recession/depression always has highest growth (everyone over confindent)?

If trump kicked the bucket and bull marketiers freaked, or financial factors accumluate (unemployment, reduced revenue intake, reduced consumerism..or whatever), it wouldnt take much to push stock over the edge.

I think when buffet/berksire didnt buy in march it says alot about current stock valuation. Dalio's talking about a lost decade for investors....hard to ignore these people....

If I could time the market and go to cash now I would, but I cant so will go into the hole with everyone else.......

Baz

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Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
« Reply #190 on: July 05, 2020, 07:14:55 AM »
We just ended the best quarter in 22 years. When will the market stop dropping?
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-news-live-july-1-2020-221322505.html
well, talk about a misleading way to describe things.
What is misleading? The S&P 500 is up 25.5% for the last quarter by my math.
You're pretending all your investing started this year on April 1st?  It's a little late to play April Fools jokes, isn't it?  Anyone invested in March was not ahead after a +25% recovery from their -35% loss.

Wintergreen78

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Re: This is when the market will stop dropping.
« Reply #191 on: July 05, 2020, 11:35:21 PM »
We just ended the best quarter in 22 years. When will the market stop dropping?
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-news-live-july-1-2020-221322505.html
well, talk about a misleading way to describe things.
What is misleading? The S&P 500 is up 25.5% for the last quarter by my math.
You're pretending all your investing started this year on April 1st?  It's a little late to play April Fools jokes, isn't it?  Anyone invested in March was not ahead after a +25% recovery from their -35% loss.

This thread is all about when the market will stop dropping. When will it stop? We are waiting to find out!