Thanks for the reply and the link to your post about perpetual withdrawal rates. I've studied that and it gives me more to chew on.
At this point I think the biggest thing for me to sort out is my own risk tolerance. Playing around with your calculator, cFIREsim, some simple spreadsheets, and all of that slowly builds this picture in my mind of where the edges are in the safe withdrawal rate space. I'd like to think that on one end of the spectrum is a 5%+ withdrawal rate where I am, on average, likely to have enough money (50% success rate) to go the distance. On the other end of the spectrum is the perpetual withdrawal rates where I will both have enough money always, and be leaving a good nest egg to heirs. I have found it enlightening to see how powerful small variables can be like a reverse equity glide path in the first ten years or being slightly flexible in spending. With this new tool I'll spend some time doing the same with the larger space of available investments.
Thinking out loud here, and realizing I should move this musing over to my journal at this point, I think the PWR is too conservative for our situation. I'm still exploring quantifying them, but I have layers of safety built in.
- 2x SS later in life (small though it likely will be)
- Small pension from my first employer
- Fat FIRE budget, so flexibility to adjust spending downward during down markets
- Two highly educated, skilled, experienced people who could likely figure out a way to bring in some cash if necessary
- While it certainly does not factor into our calculations, there are two sets of financially smart, retired couples in the generation above us who have expressed intentions of leaving inheritance for my sister and me.
Thanks again for your contributions to the community.