Author Topic: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion  (Read 402355 times)

waltworks

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #800 on: January 25, 2018, 07:09:46 PM »
Phil, are you claiming that fiat currency is somehow holding back the micropayments concept from being widely adopted?

I mean, I agree that micropayments are a great way to solve some annoying problems. People have been talking about them for at least 20 years, AFAIK. But I don't see why I couldn't set up such a system just using existing currency(s). Which makes me think the roadblocks have nothing to do with currency, hence not much reason to think cryptos would somehow make micropayments a big thing.

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runbikerun

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #801 on: January 26, 2018, 01:11:50 AM »

so micropayments shouldn't be used because micropayments aren't used...?  nobody uses micropayments because it's not really an option yet, as cryptocurrencies are relatively new and the big ones have scaling problems.  i'm just saying there's potential there.

At the risk of sounding dismissive: did you read the damn post at all?

Did you get to the chunk pointing out that subscription models are a superior option for both buyers and sellers?

Or did you just decide after reading the very first line what your response was going to be and ignore the rest? I mean, you quoted the first line of my last paragraph, completely disregarded the rest of it, and then delivered a kicking to an argument I hadn't actually made. Subscription models are everywhere because they're a far better option for businesses and for customers.

I don't think I can adequately explain how infuriating it is to have someone selectively misquote a subset of what I've written and then argue against something I've never said, so I'm just going to reproduce what I actually wrote and what you wrote in response:

"And on the subject of micropayments: it's entirely possible to build a micropayment system that's irreversible, by requiring customers to preload their accounts but allow for withdrawal of unused balances at any time. Then you simply pay the money instantly whenever a customer authorises a micropayment. Hey presto! But nobody does that, because nobody uses micropayments, because business after business after business has figured out that subscription models are superior. It's a more consistent revenue stream, the global nature of the internet allows companies to run a profit even on low subscription fees, customers paying a subscription are almost certainly less likely to stop using your service, and the act of paying for the subscription may actually drive usage (someone with a Netflix account may opt to watch more Netflix to make the most of their spending).

If you were starting an online company today, would you want to go for micropayments or a subscription model? Just about everyone in the market - from Netflix to the Wall Street Journal, from Dollar Shave Club to Spotify, from the Lancet to whatever particular flavour of online nudity you find most interesting - is using a subscription model, which is a pretty clear indicator. Even where subscription involves no actual payments - like on Youtube - you'll see reminders at the end of videos to subscribe to the channel, because the entire business model is built on subscribers. The subscription model is vastly preferable to both customers (a predictable and smooth cost for something from a consistently good source) and to sellers (a regular revenue stream with low turnover which enables far more detailed forward planning than day-to-day sales), and crypto isn't needed for subscriptions."

"so micropayments shouldn't be used because micropayments aren't used...? nobody uses micropayments because it's not really an option yet, as cryptocurrencies are relatively new and the big ones have scaling problems."

...

Seriously: what is the point of engaging, if this is what comes back as a response? I wrote a clear and short explanation of why I believe companies have gone with a subscription model, added in an explanation of why I think it actually benefits consumers as well, and brought in supporting evidence that the subscription model is the best one available for businesses even when the subscription is completely free. In return, I get...strawman arguments and selective and misleading quotations, and no effort to discuss what I actually said. It's incredibly frustrating.
« Last Edit: January 26, 2018, 02:43:25 AM by runbikerun »

pennyrobbins

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #802 on: January 26, 2018, 10:29:30 AM »
Hoping that transactions and accessibility get easier, now that Robinhood is entering the game.  Should be seeing a general lift among crypto when the barriers to entry are reduced like this.

phil22

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #803 on: January 26, 2018, 05:24:33 PM »
"so micropayments shouldn't be used because micropayments aren't used...? nobody uses micropayments because it's not really an option yet, as cryptocurrencies are relatively new and the big ones have scaling problems."

...

Seriously: what is the point of engaging, if this is what comes back as a response? I wrote a clear and short explanation of why I believe companies have gone with a subscription model, added in an explanation of why I think it actually benefits consumers as well, and brought in supporting evidence that the subscription model is the best one available for businesses even when the subscription is completely free. In return, I get...strawman arguments and selective and misleading quotations, and no effort to discuss what I actually said. It's incredibly frustrating.

you wrote that companies today use subscription models, and gave a few reasons.  but you didn't compare subscriptions to micropayments.  what you should have said is "companies like subscription models, not micropayments, because paying subscribers often don't even use the service.  this boosts profit margins for companies."  you said almost everything but that.

from a customer's point of view, subscription models suck because if you don't use the product, you still pay.  that's why consumers would want microservices.


phil22

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #804 on: January 26, 2018, 05:35:53 PM »
At the risk of sounding dismissive: did you read the damn post at all?
...
Seriously: what is the point of engaging, if this is what comes back as a response?
...
I get...strawman arguments and selective and misleading quotations, and no effort to discuss what I actually said. It's incredibly frustrating.

the frustrating dismissive response here was me mentioning how cryptocurrencies could potentially be used for micropayments, and your response is essentially "nobody should use micropayments".

i should have just ignored your post.  sorry for responding.

waltworks

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #805 on: January 26, 2018, 07:22:35 PM »
the frustrating dismissive response here was me mentioning how cryptocurrencies could potentially be used for micropayments, and your response is essentially "nobody should use micropayments".

i should have just ignored your post.  sorry for responding.

I have to say, Phil, he's (she's?) right - you really did seem to ignore the context of the post. You're backing off of that now with some new idea about how subscriptions *aren't* ideal for consumers which is interesting - but that wasn't what you said originally. You quoted without context and you're coming off as bit of a loon. Chill out.

Also, you never addressed my question about why cryptos are so much better for micropayments. I see no reason you couldn't do micropayments with any currency you want. What makes cryptos so much better for this?

-W

runbikerun

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #806 on: January 27, 2018, 01:35:27 AM »
"so micropayments shouldn't be used because micropayments aren't used...? nobody uses micropayments because it's not really an option yet, as cryptocurrencies are relatively new and the big ones have scaling problems."

...

Seriously: what is the point of engaging, if this is what comes back as a response? I wrote a clear and short explanation of why I believe companies have gone with a subscription model, added in an explanation of why I think it actually benefits consumers as well, and brought in supporting evidence that the subscription model is the best one available for businesses even when the subscription is completely free. In return, I get...strawman arguments and selective and misleading quotations, and no effort to discuss what I actually said. It's incredibly frustrating.

you wrote that companies today use subscription models, and gave a few reasons.  but you didn't compare subscriptions to micropayments.  what you should have said is "companies like subscription models, not micropayments, because paying subscribers often don't even use the service.  this boosts profit margins for companies."  you said almost everything but that.

from a customer's point of view, subscription models suck because if you don't use the product, you still pay.  that's why consumers would want microservices.

So what you really wanted was for me to make your argument for you. Come on, this is ridiculous. You still haven't read what I wrote, because every point I made about the advantages of subscription models was an advantage specifically compared to micropayments. For customers, it means their costs are far more predictable and they can subscribe to a provider of a consistently good product, meaning less time and money spent trying to find something good. For businesses, the principal benefit is that the subscription model means far more predictable revenue streams and better options for forward planning. You can fume all you want about businesses growing fat on subscriptions from people who don't use the product, but that's not a part of any sane business plan I've ever seen. It's an incidental effect, not the plan.

And my response wasn't "nobody should use micropayments". It was that nobody does, because the subscription model is a better option.

Tonyahu

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #807 on: January 27, 2018, 11:12:18 AM »
It's debatable whether the largest exchange had spent the previous few months furiously working to prop up the price in other years.

I think it's pretty clear that the price of bitcoin has been systematically manipulated by bad actors.  This probably shouldn't be a surprise to anyone.

It's a completely unregulated market in what are essentially penny stocks, and we've all seen how that story ends.  The whole model is to promote positive media coverage to scare up new investor money with fomo on the next big thing, but there is no underlying value behind the asset.  Every part of that sentence is exactly like penny stocks.  How quickly we forget.

It's especially egregious to me that THIS community, of all places, has penny stock promoters.  The whole thrust of this forum's financial advice is that you can't pick the next big thing, but you can reliably get rich by regularly investing in boring dependable assets that represent aggregate performance.  You minimize risk by sharing it.   

The entire cryptocurrency space looks like a cynical cash grab by brazen criminals.  The exchanges are corrupt.  The product is imaginary and the revenue stream is non-existent.  Just like with booming penny stocks, all they have is a clever idea and an overhyped media presence, which they use to fleece the late comers.  It's an elaborate scam.

Bitcoin is antithetical to everything this website represents.  This is probably the wrong place to shill for it.  And yet here we are, listening to poster after poster pushing their fomo agenda with promises of instant gratification.  Get real, peeps.

1. Please re-read the opening post of this thread.
2. Cease posting in here.

Thank you.

sol

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #808 on: January 27, 2018, 11:21:35 AM »
1. Please re-read the opening post of this thread.
2. Cease posting in here.

Oh I'm so sorry.  Did I not quietly acquiesce to your ridiculous demands?

Here's a tip.  If you start a thread asking people to talk about how great slavery is, you're probably going to find a few posts you don't agree with there, too. 

This is a forum about financial advice.  Starting a thread to give people bad financial advice is unlikely to go unchallenged.  I think I will not sit quietly, despite your good manners.  Which really are lovely, btw, thanks for that.


runbikerun

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #809 on: January 27, 2018, 11:27:18 AM »
You want this thread to stick purely to discussing holdings and avoid any critical commentary of cryptocurrencies as a whole?

That particular horse has long since bolted, written a white paper, set up its own cryptocurrency, strategically hyped HorseCoin on social media, and sold half its holdings just before HorseCoin's value collapsed.

Not to mention that there's something deeply unpleasant about seeing demands that people stop posting negative stuff when there still isn't a cogent explanation for how someone bought a billion dollars worth of Bitcoin by first buying it in Tether, or why Tether can't provide any evidence that this billion dollars exists. This isn't even a discussion of whether cryptocurrency is in a bubble anymore: it's a question of whether its price is being inflated by criminal behaviour, and there's credible circumstantial evidence that it is.

Padonak

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #810 on: January 27, 2018, 11:51:31 AM »
1. Please re-read the opening post of this thread.
2. Cease posting in here.

Oh I'm so sorry.  Did I not quietly acquiesce to your ridiculous demands?

Here's a tip.  If you start a thread asking people to talk about how great slavery is, you're probably going to find a few posts you don't agree with there, too. 

This is a forum about financial advice.  Starting a thread to give people bad financial advice is unlikely to go unchallenged.  I think I will not sit quietly, despite your good manners.  Which really are lovely, btw, thanks for that.

Crypto shills are shaming us no coiners because they are running out of greater fools and getting desperate. They need a bunch of greater fools to hold the bag full of shitcoins when this bubble finally bursts.

waltworks

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #811 on: January 27, 2018, 12:28:37 PM »
You got out, right Tony? You had a bunch of threads asking about investing over the last 6 weeks ago. Hope you sold and put the money to work in less risky ways.

-W

Bicycle_B

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #812 on: January 27, 2018, 12:34:27 PM »
I don't hold any crypto, but feel this thread's original purpose had value.  In addition, a variety of discussions have occurred through the thread that are not criticism of cryptocurrency in general, but instead are reasoned opinions about the value and nature of particular cryptocurrencies.  I think that a thread focused on stating crypto holdings and discussing the specific characteristics and valuation of particular currencies is a reasonable thing to ask.

Stating a zero holding of crypto and expounding once that the reason is because you think all cryptocurrency is a shell game is something you can reasonably do once in the thread, because it differentiates your position from one like mine - I hold no crypto, but am an agnostic of sorts who is genuinely curious.  But repeated posting of a general crypto-sucks opinion is going too far in thread.  Crypto holders should have a place to talk where they can come to their own conclusions without others badgering them.  MMM's founder already posted his opinion elsewhere.  Let the crypto holders work through this in peace.

Tonyahu, you yourself have shown on more than one thread that you have been both active in crypto and actively considering sale of some cryptocurrency for the purpose of buying fiat-denominated investments.  I'm hoping for the best for you.  Any updates you'd be willing to share about your crypto holdings? 
« Last Edit: January 27, 2018, 12:38:13 PM by Bicycle_B »

runbikerun

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #813 on: January 28, 2018, 01:48:27 AM »
"Crypto holders should have a place to talk where they can come to their own conclusions without others badgering them."

It's debatable whether that place should be on the MMM forum. As you note, MMM himself is quite clear that he has no faith in the pricing of cryptocurrencies, and sol has also given a very clear explanation for why he/she regards crypto as fundamentally inimical to MMM principles. A thread focused entirely on positive or neutral discussion of crypto makes about as much sense as a thread called "Show Us Your Brand New SUV" where nobody's allowed to point out that brand new SUVs are a terrible waste of money.

This is a forum based on a website that routinely tells people they deserve a punch in the face for their poor financial decisions. It is absolutely not a place for a discussion that doesn't allow sustained criticism of a poor financial decision.

BattlaP

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #814 on: January 28, 2018, 01:56:14 AM »
Empty ‘Amen’ post. Well said.

runbikerun

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #815 on: January 30, 2018, 02:44:05 PM »
Everything in that article screams "this is going to be an almighty shitshow". There isn't a single reassuring detail.

Hash Brown

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #816 on: January 30, 2018, 03:46:56 PM »
Crypto shills are shaming us no coiners because they are running out of greater fools and getting desperate. They need a bunch of greater fools to hold the bag full of shitcoins when this bubble finally bursts.

I sold, I'm completely out. 

My furnace went out the first week of December and my transmission blew on Christmas morning. -$11,000 for the month.  The heating/cooling place didn't accept bitcoin and neither did the Ford dealership. 

phil22

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #817 on: January 30, 2018, 08:59:24 PM »
Consider addressing the issues rather than turn around every argument that pokes holes in your fantasy crypto utopia.

cryptos are traded on shallow, heavily-manipulated markets run on exchanges prone to hacks, theft, and general incompetence.  tether looks to be fraudulently propping up a good chuck of the market.  many of the newer coins are simply scams.  many coins are having scaling issues as the size of the user base grows.  many coins have power consumption issues.  yes, they are a terrible "investment."  putting money into a crypto "portfolio" is a terrible idea.

all that being said... cryptocurrencies are not going to magically go "poof" and disappear one wednesday morning.  i don't know if this counts as a "fantasy crypto utopia" but they are here to stay, and things arguably couldn't get much worse for cryptos.  judging by the vitriol from the anti-crypto crowd here i doubt we can agree on that much.

waltworks

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #818 on: January 30, 2018, 09:13:20 PM »
I'm not anti-crypto. I'm *pro* crypto. I want to pay for stuff (and get paid for stuff) without paying 2-5% to various stupid middlemen.

However all the existing implementations are a miserable failure at doing this, many of the popular ones seemingly by design. I don't want to "invest" in currency and hold onto it in the hopes it'll gain value, I want a nice easy to use cheap secure *tool* for making transactions.

I think the "anti" crypto folks are just as annoyed as I am that people have fallen for what appears to be a con. Nobody is against an inexpensive and secure way to pay for things, but millions of people bidding up the value of the various tokens such that they're unusable for transactions, IMO, makes that outcome *less* likely.

-W

anisotropy

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #819 on: January 30, 2018, 10:02:37 PM »

all that being said... cryptocurrencies are not going to magically go "poof" and disappear one wednesday morning.  i don't know if this counts as a "fantasy crypto utopia" but they are here to stay, and things arguably couldn't get much worse for cryptos.  judging by the vitriol from the anti-crypto crowd here i doubt we can agree on that much.

Few years ago, during the previous pot hype, I traded shares of various pot companies of the day: PHOT, FITX, etc. At the end of the pump/dump cycle, for whatever it's worth, I left some money on the table in each of these companies just to see if I would get lucky and maybe one of them would actually hit it big.

Today, most of them are still around. They are "here to stay" you could argue, but most of them are worth perhaps 1% of what they were valued during the hype. The pot frenzy is renewed, but with a different list of candidates. I fail to see how it is different from the current crypto scene, especially if we are talking about coins.
« Last Edit: January 30, 2018, 10:06:40 PM by anisotropy »

Nate79

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #820 on: January 30, 2018, 10:17:14 PM »
Capital One 360 now blocking purchases of bitcoin from my account onto coinbase. This is the exact reason why we need crypto in our lives. Who are they to tell me how I can or can't spend my hard earned money. A few years ago I was also hassled by a bank, who made me feel like a terrorist due to a large cash deposit. I closed my account with them at the time. No reason for this bull-shit.
You are not spending your money. You are getting a loan (credit card) to buy something. That credit can be pulled at any time. Buying investments on margin is highly risky and the credit card companies are worried, and rightly so that they will not get paid back.

Feel free to buy this crap using your own money.

Good for them to shut this down.

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Nate79

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #821 on: January 30, 2018, 10:33:33 PM »
Capital One 360 now blocking purchases of bitcoin from my account onto coinbase. This is the exact reason why we need crypto in our lives. Who are they to tell me how I can or can't spend my hard earned money. A few years ago I was also hassled by a bank, who made me feel like a terrorist due to a large cash deposit. I closed my account with them at the time. No reason for this bull-shit.
You are not spending your money. You are getting a loan (credit card) to buy something. That credit can be pulled at any time. Buying investments on margin is highly risky and the credit card companies are worried, and rightly so that they will not get paid back.

Feel free to buy this crap using your own money.

Good for them to shut this down.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G930A using Tapatalk

Huh? I'm not using a credit card. This was to be pulled from my checking account. And come on, you really think credit card companies are worried about me losing my money????? They do charge us 30% or higher, if we don't pay our balance after all!!!!
My bad. I thought you were referring to the recent announcements of credit cards blocking the purchase of bitcoin.

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Travis

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #822 on: January 31, 2018, 09:41:52 AM »
It's fine to be skeptical and have criticisms. The thing that I wonder about is how much research was done before offering these criticisms. Many of the things being questioned, such as databases or engineering scalability issues or security or viability, and other issues have been deeply analyzed. If the google searches are still unconvincing, then maybe we can discuss which aspects.

I don't want to "invest" in currency and hold onto it in the hopes it'll gain value, I want a nice easy to use cheap secure *tool* for making transactions.

You don't have to "invest" or buy in. Just wait and see if something emerges that you'll find useful or not. Right now, alot of different protocols are being experimented and speculated on. There are alot of scams too but also legitimate development. Possibly in the near future, you may even be using a blockchain backend without realizing it.

And there's the reason for the criticisms.  This thread has been going on for 6 months and was started not to discuss or debate the value of the underlying technology, but rather showcase "OMG, look at all the money I'm making!"  Either intentionally or through a Freudian slip, you acknowledge speculation is going on.  That's not a positive thing in discussing investments for most folks.  That deep analysis you mentioned has been found wanting. Billions of dollars are disappearing from this niche market their hacks and ponzi schemes and the oversight of this niche is not yet equipped to handle it.  Any attempts at forming regulation of these markets by national bodies is met with tin-foil derision.  The same people who complained that 2008 happened because of greed and not enough regulation are now boasting how unregulated crypto is the wave of the future.  Facebook is now longer allowing crypto advertising because of the rampant speculation and murky waters of this market.  They don't want to be associated with it right now and I can't blame them.

Travis

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #823 on: January 31, 2018, 12:05:37 PM »
It's fine to be skeptical and have criticisms. The thing that I wonder about is how much research was done before offering these criticisms. Many of the things being questioned, such as databases or engineering scalability issues or security or viability, and other issues have been deeply analyzed. If the google searches are still unconvincing, then maybe we can discuss which aspects.

I don't want to "invest" in currency and hold onto it in the hopes it'll gain value, I want a nice easy to use cheap secure *tool* for making transactions.

You don't have to "invest" or buy in. Just wait and see if something emerges that you'll find useful or not. Right now, alot of different protocols are being experimented and speculated on. There are alot of scams too but also legitimate development. Possibly in the near future, you may even be using a blockchain backend without realizing it.

And there's the reason for the criticisms. 

Not clear what you're trying to say here. Are you saying that my comment about how some of the criticisms indicate a lack of research is the reason for criticisms? Or do you mean "there's a reason for criticisms?" If you mean the latter, no disagreement on my part. There are plenty of valid criticisms.

Quote
This thread has been going on for 6 months and was started not to discuss or debate the value of the underlying technology, but rather showcase "OMG, look at all the money I'm making!"  Either intentionally or through a Freudian slip, you acknowledge speculation is going on.  That's not a positive thing in discussing investments for most folks.

The people that believe in crypto, are curious what others are paying attention to and why. To me, it's more about about the discussion surrounding crypto and less about "look at how much I'm making." It's always been about speculation for me; I never indicated otherwise or attempted to hide it. If I want to take a small position speculating on something I believe has promise, I don't see that as a bad thing. Someone is always taking the risk somewhere, whether individually or collectively. I don't argue or deny traditional investments and I would not encourage people to actually take from this and invest into crypto.

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That deep analysis you mentioned has been found wanting.

The scalability issue has been a known problem and is something widely researched. The questions about how blockchain would affect and alleviate issues with databases and other tech have been examined. The issues about bitcoin have been acknowledged and researched and various crypto have sprung up filling in the gaps. Also, from the crypthusiast perspective, they discuss crypto in general and not really bitcoin, but bitcoin gets thrown in there alot.

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Billions of dollars are disappearing from this niche market through hacks and ponzi schemes and the oversight of this niche is not yet equipped to handle it.

I agree, this is true. There are various sophisticated scams ongoing, and various issues with oversight and governance. Hence, the speculation and risk.

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Any attempts at forming regulation of these markets by national bodies is met with tin-foil derision. 

I have a neutral stance on this and am observing how it plays out. There are already regulation taking shape. Kyc laws, fintech legislation, ico, etc.

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The same people who complained that 2008 happened because of greed and not enough regulation are now boasting how unregulated crypto is the wave of the future.

Not my position.

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Facebook is no longer allowing crypto advertising because of the rampant speculation and murky waters of this market.  They don't want to be associated with it right now and I can't blame them.

I don't have too much of an opinion on this other than it seems to me they want to protect users against fraud and scams.

Re: criticisms: I highlighted "speculation and scams" because that's where a lot of the criticism stems from.  The chief criticisms of the crypto-market are that it is a speculative bubble not yet (or maybe ever?) backed by enough of a lasting business model that justifies current market cap in addition to current regulatory and security flaws.
Re: speculation: The number of posts denying this on this and many other financial threads across the internet fuels the criticism.  I appreciate that you're up-front about your position; however, the number of people on this forum let alone the rest of the world who have been convinced this is a valid investment on par with traditional equities is troubling. 
Re: crypto is not necessarily bitcoin: agreed. The difference gets lost far too often in discussions though. Bitcoin is more or less the standard-bearer of the market and where it goes, the discussion goes with it.
Re: regulatory concerns. I wasn't saying those opinions were necessarily yours, but they comprise enough of the pro-stance that I felt it needed to be said.

powskier

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #824 on: February 01, 2018, 12:18:03 AM »
Things in stock market that are sketchy/corrupt/not cool :
- unregulated exchanges
 -blatant price manipulation by exchanges
 -concentration of majority of any coin with a very small group of people
-concentration of mining groups
- insider trading prohibitions of the stock market do not apply in crypto
- bots manipulating prices
-coordination of buying/selling by whales

Funny how most of this can be changed to talk about most finanical markets... Humans are mostly corrupt and out for themselves. That is natural and normal. We as a society can deny that all we want, but it is just the way it is. I personally would prefer algorithms to take over and evolve over time to remove as much "human" as possible to provide fairness and transparency to our markets and reward system. We are getting closer and this is a pretty amazing start of a revolution.
If you are going to quote a post of mine and change words in it, you should fuvcking make it clear that you changed words in it,simply bolding  those words isn't enough.

powskier

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #825 on: February 01, 2018, 12:20:57 AM »
Things in stock market that are sketchy/corrupt/not cool :
- unregulated exchanges
 -blatant price manipulation by exchanges
 -concentration of majority of any coin with a very small group of people
-concentration of mining groups
- insider trading prohibitions of the stock market do not apply in crypto
- bots manipulating prices
-coordination of buying/selling by whales

Funny how most of this can be changed to talk about most finanical markets... Humans are mostly corrupt and out for themselves. That is natural and normal. We as a society can deny that all we want, but it is just the way it is. I personally would prefer algorithms to take over and evolve over time to remove as much "human" as possible to provide fairness and transparency to our markets and reward system. We are getting closer and this is a pretty amazing start of a revolution.

This is wrong.

The stock market has had a century of regulation and progress.  The corruption/manipulation in the stock market is barely detectable compared to crypto.

You'll never remove the human aspect.  Algorithms don't evolve and take over on their own - there are humans behind every line of code.

Consider addressing the issues rather than turn around every argument that pokes holes in your fantasy crypto utopia.
In my post I wrote all of those things about crypto exchanges, and effigy 98 replaced those words with "stock market". This is bullshit.

powskier

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #826 on: February 01, 2018, 12:24:47 AM »
Things in crypto space that are sketchy/corrupt/not cool :
- unregulated exchanges
 -blatant price manipulation by exchanges
 -concentration of majority of any coin with a very small group of people
-concentration of mining groups
- insider trading prohibitions of the stock market do not apply in crypto
- bots manipulating prices
-coordination of buying/selling by whales

Plenty of these items are well covered in articles by Bloomberg, NYT, WAPO, etc , I am not going to provide links someone with more time on their hands can if they wish.  Blockchain can indeed prevent corruption, improve transparency, etc, etc but the entire crypto space is full of people taking advantage of others in ways that are clearly illegal ( although likely done) in other markets. Have fun , make some money if you wish ( I am) but don't drink so much Kool aid that you end up drowning. The post government/banking libertarian utopia that many crypto enthusiasts expect is highly unlikely. Some applications of blockchain technology will likely become valuable and of great use, but to be clear the entire market itself is just about a transfer of wealth from the many to the few. Same as the rest of finances. Make sure to take gains and only gamble what you can afford to lose, or don't play.
Here is my post as it was, before effigy98 quoted it making a significant change without actually making clear the change he had made, this is a very deceptive way to make a point. I am sure Putin or Trump would love to hire you effigy98.

Mr Mark

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #827 on: February 01, 2018, 02:36:49 AM »
^^^

Powskier,
If only the forum was logged on some kind of, say, distributed blockchain ledger, then this type of malicious manipulation couldn't happen
;-)

sherr

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #828 on: February 01, 2018, 01:26:23 PM »
^^^

Powskier,
If only the forum was logged on some kind of, say, distributed blockchain ledger, then this type of malicious manipulation couldn't happen
;-)

If you're trying to make an actual point instead of just a joke then you failed. Here in the regular old-fashioned database we have powskier's original post, unalterable by anyone except him or the mods. It's also still perfectly possible to take something stored on the blockchain, alter it, and claim that it's from the original poster (though, like here, if anyone bothers to try to verify that they'll see it isn't true).

Powskier: I didn't read effigy's changes as malicious, he just was trying to make an (incorrect) point and didn't quite make the change clear enough.

Chuck

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #829 on: February 02, 2018, 12:06:01 PM »
At what point does everyone figure themselves for a bag holder and sell? Institutional money is fleeing crypto right now.

sol

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #830 on: February 02, 2018, 12:43:48 PM »
At what point does everyone figure themselves for a bag holder and sell? Institutional money is fleeing crypto right now.

Like, six months ago?

BattlaP

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #831 on: February 03, 2018, 01:34:59 AM »
At what point does everyone figure themselves for a bag holder and sell? Institutional money is fleeing crypto right now.

You don't understand, man! It's not about the price, man, it's about the philosophy, man, bro! Like.. decentralised.. secure.. *mumble mumble*.. fucking central banks, man! Just ignore the FUDS, bro, goddamn FUDS all over the place at the mo. Just HODL, bro. Just HOLD it. They said it was a bubble back in 2014, man, look at us now! They're running scared, mate. Yo, did you watch the latest Andreatta Andriopolousnesse's youtube clip man? He's, like, just, speaking the truth, bro.

/s

Padonak

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #832 on: February 03, 2018, 12:52:04 PM »
Crypto "investors" keep saying that unlike fiat money, crypto currencies are not inflationary. I think this is a bunch of bullshit.

Yes, bitcoin and most (not all) crypto currencies are not inflationary because there is a limited supply of each of them as well as limits placed on maximum number of coins that can be mined. However, anybody can fork bitcoin, Etherium and many other coins or issue their own coins and tokens.

If you look at the entire crypto space instead of each coin separately, the number of crypto coins and tokens increases over time while the amount of money people "invest" will not be increasing forever. In fact, as soon as more money is transferred from cryto back to fiat than the money going in the opposite direction, the total amount of fiat chasing crypto will start decreasing. More crypto coins vs less fiat money chasing them means crypto inflation. Maybe it has already started which would explain why crypto prices have dropped recently pretty much across the board.

onecoolcat

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #833 on: February 04, 2018, 05:28:46 PM »
It's funny that crypto crashes 50% and all of a sudden the people who didn't like crypto are patting themselves on their backs.  In reality, crypto just lost one months worth of gains and if someone got involved in November 2017 they would still be up a few years of S&P 500 gains.  You're right crypto opponents, this is the end of crypto, it won't recover, and everyone who bought crypto lost everything.  :p

It was fully expected that this would happen sooner or later.  Its not the first time its happened and it won't be the last.  Do what you want but be respectful of others decision to invest a small portion of their investments into a speculative asset.

runbikerun

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #834 on: February 04, 2018, 09:08:50 PM »
It's funny that crypto crashes 50% and all of a sudden the people who didn't like crypto are patting themselves on their backs.  In reality, crypto just lost one months worth of gains and if someone got involved in November 2017 they would still be up a few years of S&P 500 gains.  You're right crypto opponents, this is the end of crypto, it won't recover, and everyone who bought crypto lost everything.  :p

It was fully expected that this would happen sooner or later.  Its not the first time its happened and it won't be the last.  Do what you want but be respectful of others decision to invest a small portion of their investments into a speculative asset.

This is more or less exactly why a lot of people are bearish on crypto. Losing over 50% of value in about six weeks and still being ahead compared to less than three months ago is utter batshit lunacy. It should be regarded as a warning sign carved in hundred-metre-high letters made of continuously burning fuel. I'd be less convinced crypto was in a bubble if a 50% drop was a catastrophe wiping out years of steady gains, because that would be consistent with a sudden but not total drop in demand and a reasonable prospect of settling at the new level. What's happening with Bitcoin is the opposite: it's a blindingly obvious sign that there's nothing concrete backing up prices at all.

Ben Hogan

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #835 on: February 05, 2018, 10:34:11 AM »
Heading in the right direction to where it normally should be. This bubble is finally re setting.

onecoolcat

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #836 on: February 05, 2018, 03:04:49 PM »
Here is a price comparison, of Bitcoin and all altcoins mentioned in the OP, from the date this thread was started to today. 

BTC - $2,616.03… $7,287
ETH - $325.74… $727.07
XMR - $47.59… $191.49
OMG – >$0.50… $9.85
IOTA - $0.50… $1.50
LTC - $44.95… $131.64
FCT - $30.60… $22.46
LSK - $3.27… $16.05
Ardor - $0.26… $0.38
ARK - $0.69… $3.31
NEO - $6.16… $88.12
QTUM - $16.05… $21.65

Basically, despite this bloodbath, unless you were all in on FCT, you would still be very much in the green!

sol

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #837 on: February 05, 2018, 03:07:47 PM »
Basically, despite this bloodbath, unless you were all in on FCT, you would still be very much in the green!

Awesome! 

So which ones of those coins do you recommend buying today?

pegleglolita

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #838 on: February 05, 2018, 03:31:44 PM »
Ugh, son convinced me to buy Bitcoin (not real money, just a few hundred bucks of silly play-money) in December.  This is why you don't take financial advice from kids, no matter how much time they spend on Reddit crypto forums LOL.  I'm gonna hodl, since I considered it lost/gambling money when I spent it.  Maybe I'll forget about it and be a Bitilllionaire in 50 years.  Or maybe Cryp-Top was in... ;)

onecoolcat

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #839 on: February 05, 2018, 04:04:32 PM »
Basically, despite this bloodbath, unless you were all in on FCT, you would still be very much in the green!

Awesome! 

So which ones of those coins do you recommend buying today?

I don't make recommendations to people with respect to stocks or crypto.  The only financial recommendation I will make is to invest in the S&P 500 index as your paychecks come in and don't look at it. When I'm asked about crypyo, I will offer my opinion that the crypto markets are not a fit for everyone because 70% drops are not unusual.  I disclose that I personally only put in a very small amount of my money into crypto and suggest that they only invest what you can afford to lose.  I recommend against using crypto as a primary source of investment.  I give responsible advise and advise that I don't know what the future holds as I'm no expert but I personally believe crypto is a good investment for those that can stand deep cuts periodically and not sell at the sight of red.

With that said, I'm not familiar with the tech, teams, development and use-case for many of those cryptos.  On a speculative level, I think they will all probably outperform the stock market by a significant amount within the next three years.  The ones that I am familiar with [ETH, BTC, LSK, IOTA], I expect they will stand a much greater chance of doing this.


sol

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #840 on: February 05, 2018, 04:44:44 PM »
The ongoing US regulatory investigation into bitfinex and its use of tether to buy bitcoin (and other coins) without USD backing has basically ended any faith I may have once aspired to have in the crypto market. 

It's looking more and more like the entire cyrptocurrency space is just another fiat currency system, effectively privatized by rogue bankers claiming to destroy the global banking system.  They've created more money out of thin air in the past year than Bear Stearns ever did.  They've manipulated prices, lied to regulators, concealed their bookkeeping, and failed every audit.

I'm kind of sad about it, really.  I think digital currencies are a neat idea and I was hoping they found a good use case.  Unfortunately, like so many cases where there are billions to be made, it looks like criminals took over and rigged the system.  Tether is apparently a fraud, which means every single crypto coin traded for tether isn't priced based on the market, but on deception.

Bitcoin was supposed to have a fixed number of unique tokens, but it is being bought and sold with an unlimited supply of tether, which are theoretically tied to the US dollar but there is zero evidence that is actually true.  There is no gold reserve behind the tether standard.  There is no fiat currency behind the tether standard.  It's looking more and more like there is nothing at all behind tether, except a mostly Chinese hacker group operating through a British Virgin Islands exchange.  There are so many red flags here I'm not quite sure where to start.

There are lots of smart people here.  Some of you know crypto a lot better than I do.  Can someone please explain to me why there are billions of dollars worth of tether flooding into crypto investments without any money behind them?  Is it really just simple market manipulation, like it appears on its face?

Telecaster

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #841 on: February 05, 2018, 04:52:16 PM »
With that said, I'm not familiar with the tech, teams, development and use-case for many of those cryptos.  On a speculative level, I think they will all probably outperform the stock market by a significant amount within the next three years.  The ones that I am familiar with [ETH, BTC, LSK, IOTA], I expect they will stand a much greater chance of doing this.

I've been trying to mostly just shut up and listen in this thread, but I can't help myself here....You don't want any currency to outperform the stock market, right?  Because if that happens, that means your currency isn't stable--which makes it 100% useless as currency.   If anything, you probably want it do decrease slightly over time. 

I'm going to go out on a limb here, and say that before any crypto gains any traction at all in the regular economy, it will have to function and behavior sort of like money.  The crypto proponents don't seem to care about that, or even see it as desirable. 



aspiringnomad

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #842 on: February 05, 2018, 05:20:39 PM »
I'm kind of sad about it, really.  I think digital currencies are a neat idea and I was hoping they found a good use case.  Unfortunately, like so many cases where there are billions to be made, it looks like criminals took over and rigged the system.

For now and into the foreseeable future, the best use case for crypto (speculation does not count as a use case, per my own definition) is for fraudulent activity that is difficult for authorities to follow or control. There are other use cases to be sure, but I'd wager that after speculative activity, more bitcoin has been exchanged for the purposes of money laundering, purchases of illegal goods, and tax sheltering than for all other reasons combined. So criminals may have gotten more directly involved when the market share of crypto moved into the tens and hundreds of billions of USD, but they've been massive players in this space since shortly after the Bitcoin protocol was released into the wild.

To be fair, cash has always been pretty good for those types of transactions too, but cash still has to be moved physically, and car tires, mattresses, bodies, and mail have long since been risky media to move it in. The blockchain, not so much, at least perhaps until very recently.

onecoolcat

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #843 on: February 06, 2018, 08:53:52 AM »
I'm kind of sad about it, really.  I think digital currencies are a neat idea and I was hoping they found a good use case.  Unfortunately, like so many cases where there are billions to be made, it looks like criminals took over and rigged the system.

For now and into the foreseeable future, the best use case for crypto (speculation does not count as a use case, per my own definition) is for fraudulent activity that is difficult for authorities to follow or control. There are other use cases to be sure, but I'd wager that after speculative activity, more bitcoin has been exchanged for the purposes of money laundering, purchases of illegal goods, and tax sheltering than for all other reasons combined. So criminals may have gotten more directly involved when the market share of crypto moved into the tens and hundreds of billions of USD, but they've been massive players in this space since shortly after the Bitcoin protocol was released into the wild.

To be fair, cash has always been pretty good for those types of transactions too, but cash still has to be moved physically, and car tires, mattresses, bodies, and mail have long since been risky media to move it in. The blockchain, not so much, at least perhaps until very recently.

This is not accurate.  The blockchain technology is the single greatest use of crypto.  It's transparent and immutable barring a hard-fork, but if a hard-fork occurs its up to the community to determine which chain to follow.  The blockchain has many uses other than just being the best form of currency governance (no one can print more Bitcoins to pay off their debt, no one can freeze your account, merchants can get paid within seconds or even instantly as opposed to waiting days with VISA/Mastercard, cheaper transaction fees, you control and are responsible for your own assets).  Project's utilize their blockchains to verify the authenticity of files [DeepOnion], verify supermarket products are genuine [Wabi], allow immutable record keeping [Factom], and the ever improving smart contract development of various coins that allow cheap and seamless transactions.  New uses of the blockchain technology arises everyday and even the staunchest adversaries of crypto appreciate the blockchain capabilities. 

Bitcoin is the last medium I would use for any illicit purposes.  Bitcoin is not private as its built upon a public ledger and there are government entities out there that successfully link Bitcoin accounts to owners.  This is why cash, not Bitcoin, is king of the black market.  There are however privacy coins, again not Bitcoin, that utilize unique technologies to allow untraceable payments.  These coins make up a much smaller portion of the broader marketcap.

Regarding to comment on whether I want crypto to continue outperforming the stock market... Of course I do.  Blockchain technology is still in its infancy and it adds value to the underlying cryptocurrencies.  As the blockchain technology further develops, I'll use Bitcoin as an example, i.e. resolves its scalability issues with the Lightning Network, it would be completely feasible to use Bitcoin for daily purchases and not worry about transaction speeds and costs.  More people may be drawn to crypto and we may see mass adoption of cryptocurrency as a currency.  Lightning transactions are already being conducted on Bitcoin's mainet so the future is bright.  No one denies that much of Bitcoin's price is driven by speculation.  This creates bubbles which is why I and just about everyone else fully expected this bubble pop (which is why we aren't freaking out) but just didn't know when it would be.  This speculation driven investment is not unique to crypto, it happens in stocks all the time.  With P/e ratios so high, most prominently in tech (hmmmm), its only rational to acknowledge tech stocks are largely driven by speculation.  As long as the speculation is rational and one doesn't go all-in on it then I don't see a problem with it.

Regarding Tether, people in crypto don't like Tether for precisely that reason.  I believe the people holding it are ill-informed.  One of the things about crypto is that you are responsible for your own actions and keys.  Tether reeks and a lot of people may get burned.  The warning bells have been going off since it came out.  It doesn't say anything about the blockchain or cryptocurrencies as a whole other than stress the necessity of doing your own due diligence.

sol

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #844 on: February 06, 2018, 11:06:55 AM »
It doesn't say anything about the blockchain or cryptocurrencies as a whole other than stress the necessity of doing your own due diligence.

You don't think outright fraud on the biggest exchange says anything about cryptocurrencies?

How do you feel about unregulated and totally opaque fractional reserve banking?  Because that's how tether (a privately owned corporation) is underwriting the entire global crypto market.  They're using the exact same form of fiat currency control that crypto was designed to avoid!  Only no one is even checking them!  It's lunacy, as far as I can tell.

I suspect the wholele thing will come crashing down eventually.  As soon as people lose faith in it, there will be a run on tether and it will suddenly be painfully obvious that there are no dollars behind it.  And George Bailey won't be able to claim that your money is invested in your neighbor's house, because it's not like there are any tangible assets behind crypto lending.  The current price appears to be smoke and mirrors, held up by nothing except the hodl meme.

Telecaster

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #845 on: February 06, 2018, 01:44:55 PM »
Regarding to comment on whether I want crypto to continue outperforming the stock market... Of course I do.  Blockchain technology is still in its infancy and it adds value to the underlying cryptocurrencies.  As the blockchain technology further develops, I'll use Bitcoin as an example, i.e. resolves its scalability issues with the Lightning Network, it would be completely feasible to use Bitcoin for daily purchases and not worry about transaction speeds and costs.

As a currency gets more and more valuable, by definition that means the currency is deflating right?   Deflation is not a good thing.  At some point, people forgot that the second part of "cryptocurrency" is "currency."  Unstable currencies are useless as money.  Let's look at a common type of transaction: paying wages.  In a deflationary environment--which you say you hope occurs--wages get more and more expensive as the currency gets more and more valuable.  What businesses do then is cut payroll.  That means people spend less, which causes more deflation.  And there are all sorts of other problems with deflation too.   As the currency deflates, things get cheaper.  So it makes sense to defer purchases as long as possible.  That means demand drops, and you can see where that leads.  Not Good.   This is not hypothetical.  An example of what happens in times of deflation was the Great Depression.  And you are saying every economist's nightmare scenario is your preferred outcome?  I don't think you realize how insane that sounds. 

Then you go onto say there is nothing wrong with a bit of speculation.  Fair enough.  That's fine...for stocks.  But not for currency.  All businesses operate on credit in some form.  Even say, a plumber does the work, and gets paid after the job is done.   If the currency value can over night....how soon does he need to get paid?  And how long is his bid good for?  And virtually all businesses use at least some debt.  GM, Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, all have debt on the books.  How can you take out a loan, if you can't estimate the future costs of the loan?  If your currency is bouncing around in value, you can't accurately calculate future costs or schedule future payments, and scheduling future payments is how the world financial system operates.   And if you think about it, how it always has operated.  The thing you don't see a problem with actually makes crypto 100% useless as currency. 


onecoolcat

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #846 on: February 06, 2018, 02:17:06 PM »
It doesn't say anything about the blockchain or cryptocurrencies as a whole other than stress the necessity of doing your own due diligence.

You don't think outright fraud on the biggest exchange says anything about cryptocurrencies?

How do you feel about unregulated and totally opaque fractional reserve banking?  Because that's how tether (a privately owned corporation) is underwriting the entire global crypto market.  They're using the exact same form of fiat currency control that crypto was designed to avoid!  Only no one is even checking them!  It's lunacy, as far as I can tell.

I suspect the wholele thing will come crashing down eventually.  As soon as people lose faith in it, there will be a run on tether and it will suddenly be painfully obvious that there are no dollars behind it.  And George Bailey won't be able to claim that your money is invested in your neighbor's house, because it's not like there are any tangible assets behind crypto lending.  The current price appears to be smoke and mirrors, held up by nothing except the hodl meme.

You misunderstood me.  I dislike Tether very much and most of the crytpo community shares my sentiment towards it.  I also suspect Tether will go down in a blaze of agony.  If it is a scam then its wouldn't be the first and it won't be the last time the majority of the crypto community sighs and mumbles, "I told you so."  The fact that Tether "may", ok probably, is a fraud doesn't speak to the cryptocurrencies as a whole.  People are free to keep Tether if they want and all we can do is tell them its probably a fraud.  Literally 95% of the crypto community has been calling Tether out since it came out so I don't understand how the centralized tether represents the broader crypto markets as a whole.

onecoolcat

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #847 on: February 06, 2018, 02:44:01 PM »
Regarding to comment on whether I want crypto to continue outperforming the stock market... Of course I do.  Blockchain technology is still in its infancy and it adds value to the underlying cryptocurrencies.  As the blockchain technology further develops, I'll use Bitcoin as an example, i.e. resolves its scalability issues with the Lightning Network, it would be completely feasible to use Bitcoin for daily purchases and not worry about transaction speeds and costs.

As a currency gets more and more valuable, by definition that means the currency is deflating right?   Deflation is not a good thing.  At some point, people forgot that the second part of "cryptocurrency" is "currency."  Unstable currencies are useless as money.  Let's look at a common type of transaction: paying wages.  In a deflationary environment--which you say you hope occurs--wages get more and more expensive as the currency gets more and more valuable.  What businesses do then is cut payroll.  That means people spend less, which causes more deflation.  And there are all sorts of other problems with deflation too.   As the currency deflates, things get cheaper.  So it makes sense to defer purchases as long as possible.  That means demand drops, and you can see where that leads.  Not Good.   This is not hypothetical.  An example of what happens in times of deflation was the Great Depression.  And you are saying every economist's nightmare scenario is your preferred outcome?  I don't think you realize how insane that sounds. 

Then you go onto say there is nothing wrong with a bit of speculation.  Fair enough.  That's fine...for stocks.  But not for currency.  All businesses operate on credit in some form.  Even say, a plumber does the work, and gets paid after the job is done.   If the currency value can over night....how soon does he need to get paid?  And how long is his bid good for?  And virtually all businesses use at least some debt.  GM, Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, all have debt on the books.  How can you take out a loan, if you can't estimate the future costs of the loan?  If your currency is bouncing around in value, you can't accurately calculate future costs or schedule future payments, and scheduling future payments is how the world financial system operates.   And if you think about it, how it always has operated.  The thing you don't see a problem with actually makes crypto 100% useless as currency.

Inflation/deflation is a concern for all economies.  Everyone knows Bitcoin is not ready for mainstream adoption because its still speculative and hence subject to extreme volatility.  Most economist predicted that the advent of futures trading would bring a crushing reality to cryptocurrencies which would be followed by dramatically less volatility.  The volatility has been great for gains but it presents a barrier to business integration of cryptocurrencies.  We've seen companies such as Steam outright discontinue accepting cryptocurrency as a form of payment due to the volatility.  Many crypto hodlers, predicted the futures would bring big money into crypto and drive prices higher; they were wrong and the economist were right.  If they continue to be right, volatility will be much less which would be attractive for many businesses; they have said so themselves.  The more businesses that accept it, the more mainstream crypto use becomes which leads to even less volatility.  Then you can start thinking about taking your wages in crypto.  Crypto is still in its infancy but the seeds are sprouting and the roots have dug in.  This is the reason why the crypto community recognizes that futures trading is good for the ultimate goal of mass adoption even if at the core the community is distrusting of Wall Street. 

People take out loans in cryptocurrencies all the time.  It's done P2P and collateral is used.  Many people make a living off it.  As it becomes more widely used, there will be no reason for the traditional loans to be made with crypto.  There aren't any barriers that won't be resolved by reduced volatility. 

In fact, I can foresee lending being enhanced by the blockchain because contracts could be signed within the immutable blockchain.  Transfers of funds could be quick and easy and the signed block within the blockchain is pretty good evidence of a loan.  Heck, the actual contract itself can be hashed and that hash value imprinted directly onto DeepOnion's blockchain right now.  There are lots of cool things that the blockchain is already being used for and even more projects are sprouting up to improve on it.

thenextguy

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #848 on: February 06, 2018, 03:16:16 PM »
Very interesting hearings today at the Senate Banking Committee.

Quote
I was an early investor in cell phones back in the '80s, and I believe #blockchain has the potential to be just as transformational as cell phones. As our government begins to look at #crypto, I don't think you can separate #cryptocurrencies from the technology they're based on.

https://twitter.com/MarkWarner/status/960986368523587584

aspiringnomad

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #849 on: February 06, 2018, 04:18:42 PM »
I'm kind of sad about it, really.  I think digital currencies are a neat idea and I was hoping they found a good use case.  Unfortunately, like so many cases where there are billions to be made, it looks like criminals took over and rigged the system.

For now and into the foreseeable future, the best use case for crypto (speculation does not count as a use case, per my own definition) is for fraudulent activity that is difficult for authorities to follow or control. There are other use cases to be sure, but I'd wager that after speculative activity, more bitcoin has been exchanged for the purposes of money laundering, purchases of illegal goods, and tax sheltering than for all other reasons combined. So criminals may have gotten more directly involved when the market share of crypto moved into the tens and hundreds of billions of USD, but they've been massive players in this space since shortly after the Bitcoin protocol was released into the wild.

To be fair, cash has always been pretty good for those types of transactions too, but cash still has to be moved physically, and car tires, mattresses, bodies, and mail have long since been risky media to move it in. The blockchain, not so much, at least perhaps until very recently.

This is not accurate.  The blockchain technology is the single greatest use of crypto.  It's transparent and immutable barring a hard-fork, but if a hard-fork occurs its up to the community to determine which chain to follow.  The blockchain has many uses other than just being the best form of currency governance (no one can print more Bitcoins to pay off their debt, no one can freeze your account, merchants can get paid within seconds or even instantly as opposed to waiting days with VISA/Mastercard, cheaper transaction fees, you control and are responsible for your own assets).  Project's utilize their blockchains to verify the authenticity of files [DeepOnion], verify supermarket products are genuine [Wabi], allow immutable record keeping [Factom], and the ever improving smart contract development of various coins that allow cheap and seamless transactions.  New uses of the blockchain technology arises everyday and even the staunchest adversaries of crypto appreciate the blockchain capabilities. 

Bitcoin is the last medium I would use for any illicit purposes.  Bitcoin is not private as its built upon a public ledger and there are government entities out there that successfully link Bitcoin accounts to owners.  This is why cash, not Bitcoin, is king of the black market.  There are however privacy coins, again not Bitcoin, that utilize unique technologies to allow untraceable payments.  These coins make up a much smaller portion of the broader marketcap.

Regarding to comment on whether I want crypto to continue outperforming the stock market... Of course I do.  Blockchain technology is still in its infancy and it adds value to the underlying cryptocurrencies.  As the blockchain technology further develops, I'll use Bitcoin as an example, i.e. resolves its scalability issues with the Lightning Network, it would be completely feasible to use Bitcoin for daily purchases and not worry about transaction speeds and costs.  More people may be drawn to crypto and we may see mass adoption of cryptocurrency as a currency.  Lightning transactions are already being conducted on Bitcoin's mainet so the future is bright.  No one denies that much of Bitcoin's price is driven by speculation.  This creates bubbles which is why I and just about everyone else fully expected this bubble pop (which is why we aren't freaking out) but just didn't know when it would be.  This speculation driven investment is not unique to crypto, it happens in stocks all the time.  With P/e ratios so high, most prominently in tech (hmmmm), its only rational to acknowledge tech stocks are largely driven by speculation.  As long as the speculation is rational and one doesn't go all-in on it then I don't see a problem with it.

Regarding Tether, people in crypto don't like Tether for precisely that reason.  I believe the people holding it are ill-informed.  One of the things about crypto is that you are responsible for your own actions and keys.  Tether reeks and a lot of people may get burned.  The warning bells have been going off since it came out.  It doesn't say anything about the blockchain or cryptocurrencies as a whole other than stress the necessity of doing your own due diligence.

Yes there are now blockchain specialists that can trace accounts to people with enough ancillary information to aid their sleuthing, but for several years authorities were not keeping up and thus bitcoin was a means of conducting a shit ton of illegal activity. It's still the strongest use case today and has expanded into alt coins despite the crack downs in certain countries.

A lot of what you wrote was also purely your opinion, which is fair because I was largely starting my own. I only point that out because you really didn't present any facts I didn't already know. A lot of crypto enthusiasts seem to think they know more than everyone else, and ipso facto, blockchain is the best thing ever invented. I've been following bitcoin, other crypto, and blockchain use cases to some degree for over five years now. I own and have used crypto mainly so I could get sense of its usefulness relative to other mediums of exchange and for a bit of fun speculation. I'm still bearish on all existing crypto and think that blockchain tech, while certainly a cool innovation in accounting, has been overhyped by crypto enthusiasts who want to conflate that with the speculative value of their crypto holdings. I guess we'll see over time whether it really does become the most life-changing innovation since harnessing electricity.