Author Topic: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion  (Read 155810 times)

maizeman

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #400 on: October 06, 2017, 05:35:52 AM »
- Banker friendly coin: XRP
I personally do not like the thought of centralized coins, but this is a hedge more then anything that banks like control and will start using this platform.

Limiting myself to the terms of the thread: going by the announcement from the six-bank consortium, financial institutions are going to skip the middleman and build their own cryptocurrency rather than use someone else's.

I don't particularly like Ripple/XRP, but I see your six bank consortium that has said they may develop their own blockchain in the future but haven't actually done so yet and raise you 75 banks which are already working with Ripple for settling international and domestic payments.*

Note that this is not an argument for people to buy XRP for appreciation. Ripple could become wildly successful as displacing between-bank international payments by being cheaper and faster than SWIFT and it wouldn't necessarily mean that the price of XRP would appreciate dramatically.

*Source: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/75-banks-now-ripples-blockchain-network-162939601.html

hualon

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #401 on: October 06, 2017, 06:41:14 AM »
In the spirit of the original post I thought I'd share a bit of my personal experience with crypto for those interested.

I've been doing the Mustachian method of index funds, slow-and-steady, etc. for 20 years. It has served me well. I kept a couple percent of my money reserved in cash for opportunities and then put a small percentage of that money into active investing (we're talking at most $2000 or so) mainly for entertainment. Trading individual stocks got me more active in something I enjoy so I played with it in a low-risk manner for a while. Good, wholesome, nerdy fun.

I learned about Bitcoin back when it was around $200 or so and bought $5 worth on a paper wallet from a friend. I just wanted to know how the technology worked, really. I set it aside and then learned more, bought a little more, etc. I went to a Crypto conference in August, 2014 and listened to a very compelling talk given by Vitalik Buterin about this new thing he was building called Ethereum and I immediately saw potential - if he and the team were able to pull it off, of course.

I put a few hundred dollars worth of my speculative "play" investment money into it and promptly forgot about it for a year and a half or so. I didn't even realize that people were trading it in any serious way until I looked up Ethereum and my $0.30 Ethers were trading at over $1 each. Crazy ROI especially for something so speculative. It went up so fast after that that I didn't know what to do. I sold enough to recoup my investment and to realize a little profit and let the rest ride. It was all safe money now.

Fast forward to a few months ago and what was left had gone up to be worth hundreds of thousands of dollars. It went from "price of a new car" to "price of a decent house" so quickly that I was gobsmacked. My wife and I decided to get out while the getting was great and realized enough gains to pay off our house! We're in our late 30s and there's enough left to buy another house with... all from a speculative bet 3 years ago.

I don't want to get anyone's hopes up nor do I want to proclaim that I'm some kind of investing genius. I won the lottery and I know it. This was a once in a lifetime speculation done entirely with money that was outside of our normal investment plan. Had I lost the few hundred dollars, fine - not a huge setback.

As to current holdings, I remain fascinated by the space. I hold Ethereum (inside and outside of an IRA), a little Bitcoin inside an IRA, and a few smaller startups (LINK, QTUM, NEO, MTH, OMG) that I managed to purchase at their ICO or close to it. Some are up, some are down. I doubt that I'll strike oil again like I did with ETH though.

Now I'm trying to reconcile just how far out of whack my overall asset allocation is. I never intended for crypto to be such a large portion of my portfolio and I'm trying to slowly divest. The tax situation is such that I want to do it slowly because of the capital gains. Come January 1st I'll be liquidating some more and moving it into good 'ol VTSAX. :)

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #402 on: October 06, 2017, 06:59:13 AM »
A piece of investing advice that I read that made sense to me was to just put 1% of your net worth into bitcoin or etherium.  It's a gamble, but basically a hedge in case bitcoin is the disrupting force some people think it will be.  I just recently did this, if it goes to zero it's ok, I'm not risking a ton.  But if it explodes then it could pay off nicely. 

PDXTabs

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #403 on: October 09, 2017, 09:10:00 AM »
When I want to sell or buy something, I could care less what I use to make that transaction as long as it's easy, relatively secure, and that the currency is stable in value and accepted pretty much everywhere. I have no interest in whether or not that's dollars, bitcoins, dirty socks, you name it. I'm agnostic on the specific currency as long as it has those basic attributes.

As of right now, none of that applies, and the "success" of crypto looks more to me like failure, since none of them have managed to become commonly used or even stable in value. I have no interest in buying something that has no use and is only transacted with itself (I don't go out and buy a bunch of dollars to stick under my bed either, and those at least are easy to use for buying stuff I actually want).

I live in the US (own ETH and BTC) and agree with you that they are not yet mature currencies. However, I was talking to a friend from Vietnam and he told me that no one in Vietnam trusts the value of their currency (the dong) and that today many transactions are carried out with gold. For a place like that ETH or BTC could be way more convenient and secure than carrying around enough gold to buy a house (literally).

Tonyahu

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #404 on: October 09, 2017, 10:39:18 AM »
In the spirit of the original post I thought I'd share a bit of my personal experience with crypto for those interested.

I've been doing the Mustachian method of index funds, slow-and-steady, etc. for 20 years. It has served me well. I kept a couple percent of my money reserved in cash for opportunities and then put a small percentage of that money into active investing (we're talking at most $2000 or so) mainly for entertainment. Trading individual stocks got me more active in something I enjoy so I played with it in a low-risk manner for a while. Good, wholesome, nerdy fun.

I learned about Bitcoin back when it was around $200 or so and bought $5 worth on a paper wallet from a friend. I just wanted to know how the technology worked, really. I set it aside and then learned more, bought a little more, etc. I went to a Crypto conference in August, 2014 and listened to a very compelling talk given by Vitalik Buterin about this new thing he was building called Ethereum and I immediately saw potential - if he and the team were able to pull it off, of course.

I put a few hundred dollars worth of my speculative "play" investment money into it and promptly forgot about it for a year and a half or so. I didn't even realize that people were trading it in any serious way until I looked up Ethereum and my $0.30 Ethers were trading at over $1 each. Crazy ROI especially for something so speculative. It went up so fast after that that I didn't know what to do. I sold enough to recoup my investment and to realize a little profit and let the rest ride. It was all safe money now.

Fast forward to a few months ago and what was left had gone up to be worth hundreds of thousands of dollars. It went from "price of a new car" to "price of a decent house" so quickly that I was gobsmacked. My wife and I decided to get out while the getting was great and realized enough gains to pay off our house! We're in our late 30s and there's enough left to buy another house with... all from a speculative bet 3 years ago.

I don't want to get anyone's hopes up nor do I want to proclaim that I'm some kind of investing genius. I won the lottery and I know it. This was a once in a lifetime speculation done entirely with money that was outside of our normal investment plan. Had I lost the few hundred dollars, fine - not a huge setback.

As to current holdings, I remain fascinated by the space. I hold Ethereum (inside and outside of an IRA), a little Bitcoin inside an IRA, and a few smaller startups (LINK, QTUM, NEO, MTH, OMG) that I managed to purchase at their ICO or close to it. Some are up, some are down. I doubt that I'll strike oil again like I did with ETH though.

Now I'm trying to reconcile just how far out of whack my overall asset allocation is. I never intended for crypto to be such a large portion of my portfolio and I'm trying to slowly divest. The tax situation is such that I want to do it slowly because of the capital gains. Come January 1st I'll be liquidating some more and moving it into good 'ol VTSAX. :)


Beautiful, what a great story!!!

I believe there will still be more stories like these to come. The institutional money is just starting to trickle in, I fully expect this sphere to get to at least 1T market cap in the near/mid term.

Best of luck to everyone, take as much risk as you feel necessary.

talltexan

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #405 on: October 09, 2017, 12:05:48 PM »
So if I want to short crypto currency, should I be long in bank stocks? Credit Stocks? Paypal?


maizeman

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #406 on: October 09, 2017, 02:12:38 PM »
You can short crypto directly, a number of the exchanges, such as Bitfinix and Kraken allow short selling.

Although there are obvious concerns about counterparty risk since the people you'd be dealing with would be heavily invested in crypto. ;-)

Right now bitcoin cryptocurrency in general is interesting because it might disrupt the business models of companies like Western Union or the major credit card companies. But if that disruption fails to materialize it won't cause a big rebound in the share prices of those companies because right now the potential disruption isn't "real" enough yet to cause any downward pressure on their share prices.

Bicycle_B

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #407 on: October 09, 2017, 02:32:50 PM »
Hualon, thanks for sharing your story so straightforwardly.  Glad your experiments paid off!

Tonyahu

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #408 on: October 09, 2017, 05:33:54 PM »
Here are some prime examples of why you don't short the greatest bull market the world has ever seen.

https://twitter.com/bitmexrekt?lang=en

Yes, those are actual shorts / longs...yes, I know it hurts your heart.

powskier

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #409 on: October 10, 2017, 12:47:16 AM »
I only have a small amount of play money invested. Invested in Ripple partly as a hedge against the other cryptos. Many crypto gurus dismiss it because of it's centralized nature. Purchased at 0.17 was at 0.29 yesterday. the potential to replace SWIFT is also there.

powskier

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #410 on: October 10, 2017, 12:52:59 AM »
The OP was pretty clear that this was not a thread to debate if crypto currency is legit/real/of value/etc. But to discuss crypto portfolios, unfortunately it has been hijacked pretty hard.
Can you all stop now?

The name should probably be changed then . . . currently it reads "Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion".  You're suggesting that something like "Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency - Only Promotion And Good Words Allowed" would be more apt.
I am not suggesting anything other than the OP's initial post. Personally I love debating the pros/cons/hype/potentials/scams/ etc just not here on this thread.
From the very first sentence in the first post: "This thread is not to discuss if crypto-currencies are good, bad, high risk, low risk...etc but simply to post your current/future holdings. This should start a positive discussion that will leave us all smarter and more wealthy. Please do not post here with negative generalized and non-factual based statements or opinions."
Someone starts a thread with a specific request, it seems pretty straightforward to honor it, no?

Tonyahu

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #411 on: October 12, 2017, 01:00:15 PM »
New day, new all-time high.

Scared money don't make money!

lifeanon269

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #412 on: October 12, 2017, 01:13:17 PM »
New day, new all-time high.

Scared money don't make money!

Yup, it's been a good week for bitcoin! The last day or so just shows how much dominance bitcoin has over the rest of the market. It now has a market cap of over $88 billion which is over 50% of the total crypto market. Much of the rest of the crypto market is down while bitcoin is way up. Bitcoin is here to stay.

Tonyahu

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #413 on: October 12, 2017, 04:30:22 PM »
BTC over $5200! This little crytpo thing is 3% of my total portfolio but 90% of the gains. Pretty insane. Triggered another rebalance.

Man, if you could just chill and re-balance in a year you'd be able to retire a few years early :}

shadow

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #414 on: October 12, 2017, 11:11:47 PM »
Just a heads up. If you haven't already, I recommend you research omg (omisego).

I was originally in btc then moved into eth, and am now diversified into omg. I am aware of various other crypto and have researched them (neo, dash, iota, zec, ark, link, knc, etc), but I believe omg to be the strongest contender despite the omg blockchain not yet existing, as compared to the current top 12 in coinmarketcap.com. Omg is speculative and obviously has risk.

Omg will be a proof-of-stake blockchain, functioning as an agnostic payment network, dex (decentralized exchange), ewallet, etc.

If anyone has questions, I'll share what I know.

I'm not giving investment advice. Just letting people know about a possible opportunity. Do your due diligence. If you are unclear about omg or have doubts, stay away from it.   

maizeman

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #415 on: October 12, 2017, 11:37:08 PM »
I believe omg to be the strongest contender despite the omg blockchain not yet existing, as compared to the current top 12 in coinmarketcap.com.

....

If anyone has questions, I'll share what I know.

I guess my question would be: why do you think that? What's the elevator pitch for why you think people are likely to adopt omg?

(The equivalents for other coins: IOTA -- potential for lots and lots of micropayments, ZEC -- best for anonymity instead of pseudonymity, DASH -- much faster transactions*, ETH -- more complicated transactions through smart contracts.)

*Although this comparative advantage is going away with the lightening networks on BTC and LTC.

shadow

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #416 on: October 12, 2017, 11:55:04 PM »
Just to be clear, I'm a longterm holder of eth as well.

I think that much of the value for those crypto comes from the fact that they are existing and functioning blockchains.

Iota is currently centralized and using a coordinator to springboard the network until it achieves enough network effect where it no longer needs to rely on the coordinator. I'm not convinced that it will be able to effectively remove the coordinator. In addition, there is the controversy surrounding it regarding cryptographic vulnerabilities.

The zksnark zero-proof in zec is planned for use in eth, and I don't see why it won't be adapted into omg.

From an empirical perspective, eth has a more foundational infrastructure, greater developer mindshare, and superior ecosystem over dash.

As for omg, once it goes live, it can integrate into an existing payment network infrastucture and allow various payment networks to transact with each other. Exclusive loyalty or reward programs, in-game currencies, etc, have the potential to be unlocked and transacted as value into a greater network. Also, an advantage omg will have over many of the existing blockchains is that a standardized onboarding cash in/out process is expected to be unveiled before year end; instead of relying on other crypto to get it, people will directly be able to trade for it with cash at supporting establishments (possibly convenience stores). Merchants and consumers will have a reason to use omg (reduced transactional barriers, lower overhead costs, trustless trust standard, etc).

« Last Edit: October 13, 2017, 12:06:07 AM by shadow »

kivex

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #417 on: October 13, 2017, 12:30:38 AM »
Being MMM, low cost passive index funds are well proven. Applying the same to crypto currencies is what the Crypto 20 (C20) token provides. The fund contains the top 20 coins, is autonomous, and rebalanced weekly.

https://crypto20.com

If you feel that crypto will grow over time then this is a great way to have exposure to the top 20 coins in the market.

lifeanon269

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #418 on: October 13, 2017, 06:06:25 AM »
Being MMM, low cost passive index funds are well proven. Applying the same to crypto currencies is what the Crypto 20 (C20) token provides. The fund contains the top 20 coins, is autonomous, and rebalanced weekly.

https://crypto20.com

If you feel that crypto will grow over time then this is a great way to have exposure to the top 20 coins in the market.

I tried getting into Crypto20 last weekend when it first opened the ICO, but it looks like they aren't opening the ICO to US residents/citizens. Likely because of the regulations with how the SEC plans to treat ICOs as securities. So if you're in the US, you're out of luck. I'm hoping that once the ICO goes live that the token start being traded on some other exchanges that aren't as stringent with the KYC laws. In the meantime, you can trade the BTWTY crypto index on the OpenLedger DEX.

Tonyahu

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #419 on: October 13, 2017, 11:36:46 AM »
Just to be clear, I'm a longterm holder of eth as well.

I think that much of the value for those crypto comes from the fact that they are existing and functioning blockchains.

Iota is currently centralized and using a coordinator to springboard the network until it achieves enough network effect where it no longer needs to rely on the coordinator. I'm not convinced that it will be able to effectively remove the coordinator. In addition, there is the controversy surrounding it regarding cryptographic vulnerabilities.

The zksnark zero-proof in zec is planned for use in eth, and I don't see why it won't be adapted into omg.

From an empirical perspective, eth has a more foundational infrastructure, greater developer mindshare, and superior ecosystem over dash.

As for omg, once it goes live, it can integrate into an existing payment network infrastucture and allow various payment networks to transact with each other. Exclusive loyalty or reward programs, in-game currencies, etc, have the potential to be unlocked and transacted as value into a greater network. Also, an advantage omg will have over many of the existing blockchains is that a standardized onboarding cash in/out process is expected to be unveiled before year end; instead of relying on other crypto to get it, people will directly be able to trade for it with cash at supporting establishments (possibly convenience stores). Merchants and consumers will have a reason to use omg (reduced transactional barriers, lower overhead costs, trustless trust standard, etc).

Furthermore, Omise is already a well established company who is growing rapidly. They even won a large "startup company of the year award" recently. In addition, they just landed a deal with Mc. Donalds and are in talks with collaborating with Google for something.

OMG will be huge, I have about 2% of my total crypto portfolio in it and expect great returns over the next few years.

maizeman

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #420 on: October 13, 2017, 11:48:44 AM »
So if I'm reading correctly the elevator pitch is that omg (once it is up and running) should be much easier to transfer into and out of (either from normal currencies, other cryptocurrencies, or game/reward program points) without requiring the use of 3rd party exchanges?

Tonyahu

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #421 on: October 13, 2017, 11:53:57 AM »
So if I'm reading correctly the elevator pitch is that omg (once it is up and running) should be much easier to transfer into and out of (either from normal currencies, other cryptocurrencies, or game/reward program points) without requiring the use of 3rd party exchanges?

That's part of it, they want to create a decentralized exchange for fiat, more information still needs to be released on how they will do this.

A big part to mention is that this will be the first project built on PLASMA: A love child between Poon (lightning network creator) and Vitalik (Ethereum creator).

YUGE

lifeanon269

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #422 on: October 13, 2017, 12:35:04 PM »
OMG will be huge, I have about 2% of my total crypto portfolio in it and expect great returns over the next few years.

What ethereum wallet are you using to store your OMG tokens?

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #423 on: October 13, 2017, 02:41:29 PM »
What ethereum wallet are you using to store your OMG tokens?

You can store it to any public address for which you control the private key.

As a security precaution, many people would recommend a hardware wallet such as nano s ledger.



 

advanced

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #424 on: October 18, 2017, 11:19:46 AM »
my current portfolio

AEternity
IOTA
ART
SNGLS
GNT
BNT
ANT


Tonyahu

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #425 on: October 19, 2017, 01:55:19 PM »
my current portfolio

AEternity
IOTA
ART
SNGLS
GNT
BNT
ANT

Interesting, most of your choices are platforms built on Ethereum.

What makes you feel that you can pick the winners (essentially stock picking) out of a blooming new field with thousands of new developments as opposed to just picking Ethereum (essentially holding the index)?

kivex

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OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #426 on: October 19, 2017, 06:29:23 PM »
my current portfolio

AEternity
IOTA
ART
SNGLS
GNT
BNT
ANT

Interesting, most of your choices are platforms built on Ethereum.

What makes you feel that you can pick the winners (essentially stock picking) out of a blooming new field with thousands of new developments as opposed to just picking Ethereum (essentially holding the index)?

Or literally holding an index of the top 20 crypto currencies using C20 - https://crypto20.com

A good overview of C20 with links to YouTube interviews -
https://cryptocurrencyinvesting.news/crypto20-offers-peace-of-mind-with-the-first-crypto-index-fund/
« Last Edit: October 19, 2017, 09:17:37 PM by kivex »

shadow

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #427 on: October 20, 2017, 10:56:00 AM »
my current portfolio

AEternity
IOTA
ART
SNGLS
GNT
BNT
ANT

Interesting, most of your choices are platforms built on Ethereum.

What makes you feel that you can pick the winners (essentially stock picking) out of a blooming new field with thousands of new developments as opposed to just picking Ethereum (essentially holding the index)?

Touching on this, there are alot of shilling, misinformation, and pump-and-dumps in crypto. Projects get intensely hyped and made out to be extremely promising.

Most of these projects are purely whitepaper! They have no product. The idea-makers have no inkling of the pitfalls and challenges of the business world or getting a product to market and adoption. Even if they have code to show for a product, or actually launch a product, it's not a guarantee of success. There is also a very subtle form of scamming, where the ico projects put on the front of actively working on a product and releasing continuous updates, knowing the product will never pick up momentum.

If you are in the cryptoworld, be very conservative where you put your money.   



 

Tonyahu

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #428 on: October 20, 2017, 01:42:40 PM »
my current portfolio

AEternity
IOTA
ART
SNGLS
GNT
BNT
ANT

Interesting, most of your choices are platforms built on Ethereum.

What makes you feel that you can pick the winners (essentially stock picking) out of a blooming new field with thousands of new developments as opposed to just picking Ethereum (essentially holding the index)?

Touching on this, there are alot of shilling, misinformation, and pump-and-dumps in crypto. Projects get intensely hyped and made out to be extremely promising.

Most of these projects are purely whitepaper! They have no product. The idea-makers have no inkling of the pitfalls and challenges of the business world or getting a product to market and adoption. Even if they have code to show for a product, or actually launch a product, it's not a guarantee of success. There is also a very subtle form of scamming, where the ico projects put on the front of actively working on a product and releasing continuous updates, knowing the product will never pick up momentum.

If you are in the cryptoworld, be very conservative where you put your money.

This is why I am a firm believer in Ethereum. It's literally the back-bone of the future landscape of public Blockchain development.

my current portfolio

AEternity
IOTA
ART
SNGLS
GNT
BNT
ANT

Interesting, most of your choices are platforms built on Ethereum.

What makes you feel that you can pick the winners (essentially stock picking) out of a blooming new field with thousands of new developments as opposed to just picking Ethereum (essentially holding the index)?

Or literally holding an index of the top 20 crypto currencies using C20 - https://crypto20.com

A good overview of C20 with links to YouTube interviews -
https://cryptocurrencyinvesting.news/crypto20-offers-peace-of-mind-with-the-first-crypto-index-fund/

Thanks for the input man. Can you please avoid posting that anymore? I don't know your affiliation but mentioning it twice in such a short amount of time is coming off as self seeking. If not, I apologize but I just wanted to get this out in the clear.

kivex

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #429 on: October 20, 2017, 02:41:15 PM »
Thanks for the input man. Can you please avoid posting that anymore? I don't know your affiliation but mentioning it twice in such a short amount of time is coming off as self seeking. If not, I apologize but I just wanted to get this out in the clear.

My apologies. Rereading this thread, my posts do come off as promotion - wasn't my intention. I have no affiliation other than having participated in their ICO. Being MMM, the discussion of which individual crypto currencies will perform well is akin to stock picking, and runs against the norm on this forum which favours index investing. I wanted to let others know that the ability to invest in a crypto index is available.

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #430 on: October 20, 2017, 08:14:10 PM »
Oh man.    This is a millennial train wreck.   

You guys are going to lose your asses.   

waltworks

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #431 on: October 20, 2017, 10:40:00 PM »
The peeps selling the "index of crypto" stuff (and the ones selling mining rigs) will do fine. Levi Strauss, baby...

-W

maizeman

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #432 on: October 20, 2017, 11:40:41 PM »
Oh man.    This is a millennial train wreck.   

You guys are going to lose your asses.   

Leave Snake People* alone!

*Reference: https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/welcome-to-the-forum/enough-with-this-'millenial'-bullshit!/msg1018168/#msg1018168

powskier

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #433 on: October 21, 2017, 12:57:19 AM »
Oh man.    This is a millennial train wreck.   

You guys are going to lose your asses.   

Many of them have already made more money than all of us Gen Xers combined. Just because you don't understand it, doesn't mean it's necessarily a train wreck.

$100 of BTC 7 years ago is $140 million and then some today.

I'm up about 75% this year with some play money.

Jeferson

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #434 on: October 22, 2017, 11:47:35 AM »
Bitcoin really hitting new highs, currently at 5963.01 dollars per unit, looking for a spot to buy few coins, but the price is too high right now.
Why do people think that my name is Jeferson?
 Read my trading journal

JAYSLOL

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #435 on: October 22, 2017, 06:25:16 PM »
Bitcoin really hitting new highs, currently at 5963.01 dollars per unit, looking for a spot to buy few coins, but the price is too high right now.

Same, I sold a week ago when it hit $7300 CDN, i'll start getting back in when values come back down a little

surfhb

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #436 on: October 22, 2017, 07:27:17 PM »
Crypto currencies are to investing what a brand new GM truck is to Mustachians.   

Isn't this the opposite of what this blog preaches ?     Do any of you ever experienced an extended bear market?   Where you lost hundreds of thousands in equity value in a matter of months? 

 If so, do you feel comfortable with things like bitcoin?     Yes?  How?

I want to hear from the 40+ crowd who have experienced these kinds of events.   

« Last Edit: October 22, 2017, 07:41:51 PM by surfhb »

JAYSLOL

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #437 on: October 22, 2017, 09:37:12 PM »
Crypto currencies are to investing what a brand new GM truck is to Mustachians.   

Isn't this the opposite of what this blog preaches ?     Do any of you ever experienced an extended bear market?   Where you lost hundreds of thousands in equity value in a matter of months? 

 If so, do you feel comfortable with things like bitcoin?     Yes?  How?

I want to hear from the 40+ crowd who have experienced these kinds of events.   

A better analogy might be buying a lotto ticket.  I don't know how anyone can bet large amounts on bitcoin, for me its 1% of my investments

lifeanon269

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #438 on: October 23, 2017, 07:30:08 AM »
Crypto currencies are to investing what a brand new GM truck is to Mustachians.   

Isn't this the opposite of what this blog preaches ?     Do any of you ever experienced an extended bear market?   Where you lost hundreds of thousands in equity value in a matter of months? 

 If so, do you feel comfortable with things like bitcoin?     Yes?  How?

I want to hear from the 40+ crowd who have experienced these kinds of events.   

Can you further explain your analogy? The comparison you make to a GM truck doesn't really make sense at all.

Being "mustachian" is more about living a simple frugal life to achieve a high savings rate and become financially independent than it is about any one particular investment strategy. Even Mr. Money Mustache has invested in high risk/high reward investments.

So I don't think being "mustachian" excludes one from investing in crypto-currencies.

I feel very comfortable investing in bitcoin for numerous reasons.

1) It isn't correlated with any other investment class and it has so far shown itself to be disassociated with most other markets. Therefore it is a good investment option for diversifying against my other index funds.

2) I work in the technology field (Information Security) and I understand the technology of bitcoin deeply. Therefore, investing in a technology that I firmly believe has a bright future makes sense to me. I think it is one of the greatest technological achievements since the Internet. For the first time, we can now create something that is both digital and scarce and can't be copied.

3) I invested in bitcoin early on and therefore my investment has seen tremendous growth over the last several years. Even if bitcoin experiences an extreme drop from today's value or an extensive bear market for the foreseeable future, I will has still made more money had I just invested my money in any other traditional investment option.

4) I am extremely bearish on current traditional financial systems and think that we're in one of the largest debt bubbles ever. Until Bitcoin came along, there was really no way to hedge against something like this as just about ever other asset class is either manipulated and/or intertwined with everything else that makes up our economy. Bitcoin's true value won't be understood until we experience another financial crisis. While I continue to invest in my traditional index funds and max out all my pre-tax investment options, Bitcoin provides me a hedge against those in the event something horrible happens.

5) Bitcoin is extremely liquid and fungible, unlike many retirement investment accounts. This is a great benefit to someone who is planning to retire early, which is something that goes against society's norms. While I plan on retiring in my early 40's, sometimes life can throw a curve ball, so it is nice to have a decent chunk of money that is for retirement, but is available any time of day that can be accessed and used in any way I see fit. There aren't many good investments that I can be long on, while still having the ability to access it at any time without restrictions or penalties.

6) If crypto-currencies are seen as a "millennial" investment, wouldn't it make sense that I invest in something that has a growing number of young investors in the future investing in something that has a positive feedback loop relative to its adoption? If most millennials don't understand why gold is a store of value and yet are fully willing to adopt Bitcoin as such, then it makes sense that Bitcoin would have a stronger future market as those millennials begin choosing where to put their money.

I can go on digging further into why I think Bitcoin is a good investment option, but there are just some of the reasons why I choose to put some of my money in it and why it shouldn't just be seen as some obscure fad.
« Last Edit: October 23, 2017, 07:32:38 AM by lifeanon269 »

talltexan

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #439 on: October 23, 2017, 09:04:00 AM »
Lifeanon269-

Have you purchased a tangible good or service with your bitcoin?

I'd like to know if you've used it for its intended purpose, or if it's only an investment vehicle for you.

lifeanon269

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #440 on: October 23, 2017, 10:15:25 AM »
Lifeanon269-

Have you purchased a tangible good or service with your bitcoin?

I'd like to know if you've used it for its intended purpose, or if it's only an investment vehicle for you.

All my spending money is in Bitcoin (I've stated this in past posts here as well, so I'm not just saying this in response to you). I'd rather have my spending money in Bitcoin as opposed to USD as this allows me to further increase my savings. If my spending money goes up 10% one month, then that allows me to put more into savings than I otherwise would have. Its volatility isn't as painful when it comes to my spending money since 1) I don't spend much each month and 2) my monthly spending is spread out over the course of the month, therefore Bitcoin's price volatility evens out for all my expenditures.

In case you're wondering, I have a Bitcoin debit card that allows me to make purchases using Bitcoin. My money is stored in Bitcoin until the time of the transaction where it is converted to USD without any transaction fee. This is what I referred to above where I said that Bitcoin is extremely liquid. I can have my money in Bitcoin and at any moment, I can spend it. I also do make purchases directly with Bitcoin on a few websites that support it (Amazon purchases through Purse, Overstock, NewEgg, etc).

With that said, I would like to question why the question was posed in the first place. Were you questioning its use as a currency? Its current adoption level matches its current merchant acceptance. That is to say it is very low. The reason why it has been such a good investment hinges solely on the fact that it is such a young market. At the point at which we see its value as currency being realized (ie, merchant acceptance and widespread use), its value as an investment will have diminished. Irregardless of any of this, however, its value as a store of value will always remain since that is mostly dependent upon the soundness and stability of the technology itself.

GuitarStv

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #441 on: October 23, 2017, 11:09:19 AM »
All my spending money is in Bitcoin (I've stated this in past posts here as well, so I'm not just saying this in response to you). I'd rather have my spending money in Bitcoin as opposed to USD as this allows me to further increase my savings.

It certainly provides some protection from making mindless purchases.

talltexan

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #442 on: October 23, 2017, 12:04:42 PM »
Lifeanon269-

Have you purchased a tangible good or service with your bitcoin?

I'd like to know if you've used it for its intended purpose, or if it's only an investment vehicle for you.

All my spending money is in Bitcoin (I've stated this in past posts here as well, so I'm not just saying this in response to you). I'd rather have my spending money in Bitcoin as opposed to USD as this allows me to further increase my savings. If my spending money goes up 10% one month, then that allows me to put more into savings than I otherwise would have. Its volatility isn't as painful when it comes to my spending money since 1) I don't spend much each month and 2) my monthly spending is spread out over the course of the month, therefore Bitcoin's price volatility evens out for all my expenditures.

In case you're wondering, I have a Bitcoin debit card that allows me to make purchases using Bitcoin. My money is stored in Bitcoin until the time of the transaction where it is converted to USD without any transaction fee. This is what I referred to above where I said that Bitcoin is extremely liquid. I can have my money in Bitcoin and at any moment, I can spend it. I also do make purchases directly with Bitcoin on a few websites that support it (Amazon purchases through Purse, Overstock, NewEgg, etc).

With that said, I would like to question why the question was posed in the first place. Were you questioning its use as a currency? Its current adoption level matches its current merchant acceptance. That is to say it is very low. The reason why it has been such a good investment hinges solely on the fact that it is such a young market. At the point at which we see its value as currency being realized (ie, merchant acceptance and widespread use), its value as an investment will have diminished. Irregardless of any of this, however, its value as a store of value will always remain since that is mostly dependent upon the soundness and stability of the technology itself.

Your debit card sounds absolutely amazing! I apologize for being so late to the discussion that I hadn't properly read other posts of yours.

Indeed I am trying to figure out whether Bitcoin is a currency, or if the emphasis on investing through it has transformed it more into a commodity a la gold.

My big concern about websites like overstock is that they still quote the prices in $$ until the very end, then they give you the option to pay via Bitcoin. I'm worried that until we start thinking about prices totally within Bitcoin (and you sound like you've built the infrastructure--personally--to do this), it won't be a currency, but more a medium of exchange will be something more akin to payment processing that credit cards are currently providing, rather than being something like the Euro.

sherr

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #443 on: October 23, 2017, 12:21:26 PM »
Irregardless of any of this, however, its value as a store of value will always remain since that is mostly dependent upon the soundness and stability of the technology itself.

It's quotes like this that make me extremely wary of cryptocurrencies. That's simply untrue. The only "value" that cryptocurrencies have as a store of value is completely and totally dependent on other people being willing to trade goods / services / other currencies for them. Same as anything else. The technology can be completely sound and stable, but if no one wants to buy your bitcoin then it has lost every bit of its value. Will that happen any time soon? I don't know, but "bitcoin has no real value so it's real value is potentially INFINITE" type quotes certainly don't make me want to trade my USD for your bitcoin.


Tonyahu

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #444 on: October 23, 2017, 12:45:30 PM »
Crypto currencies are to investing what a brand new GM truck is to Mustachians.   

Isn't this the opposite of what this blog preaches ?     Do any of you ever experienced an extended bear market?   Where you lost hundreds of thousands in equity value in a matter of months? 

 If so, do you feel comfortable with things like bitcoin?     Yes?  How?

I want to hear from the 40+ crowd who have experienced these kinds of events.   

Can you further explain your analogy? The comparison you make to a GM truck doesn't really make sense at all.

Being "mustachian" is more about living a simple frugal life to achieve a high savings rate and become financially independent than it is about any one particular investment strategy. Even Mr. Money Mustache has invested in high risk/high reward investments.

So I don't think being "mustachian" excludes one from investing in crypto-currencies.

I feel very comfortable investing in bitcoin for numerous reasons.

1) It isn't correlated with any other investment class and it has so far shown itself to be disassociated with most other markets. Therefore it is a good investment option for diversifying against my other index funds.

2) I work in the technology field (Information Security) and I understand the technology of bitcoin deeply. Therefore, investing in a technology that I firmly believe has a bright future makes sense to me. I think it is one of the greatest technological achievements since the Internet. For the first time, we can now create something that is both digital and scarce and can't be copied.

3) I invested in bitcoin early on and therefore my investment has seen tremendous growth over the last several years. Even if bitcoin experiences an extreme drop from today's value or an extensive bear market for the foreseeable future, I will has still made more money had I just invested my money in any other traditional investment option.

4) I am extremely bearish on current traditional financial systems and think that we're in one of the largest debt bubbles ever. Until Bitcoin came along, there was really no way to hedge against something like this as just about ever other asset class is either manipulated and/or intertwined with everything else that makes up our economy. Bitcoin's true value won't be understood until we experience another financial crisis. While I continue to invest in my traditional index funds and max out all my pre-tax investment options, Bitcoin provides me a hedge against those in the event something horrible happens.

5) Bitcoin is extremely liquid and fungible, unlike many retirement investment accounts. This is a great benefit to someone who is planning to retire early, which is something that goes against society's norms. While I plan on retiring in my early 40's, sometimes life can throw a curve ball, so it is nice to have a decent chunk of money that is for retirement, but is available any time of day that can be accessed and used in any way I see fit. There aren't many good investments that I can be long on, while still having the ability to access it at any time without restrictions or penalties.

6) If crypto-currencies are seen as a "millennial" investment, wouldn't it make sense that I invest in something that has a growing number of young investors in the future investing in something that has a positive feedback loop relative to its adoption? If most millennials don't understand why gold is a store of value and yet are fully willing to adopt Bitcoin as such, then it makes sense that Bitcoin would have a stronger future market as those millennials begin choosing where to put their money.

I can go on digging further into why I think Bitcoin is a good investment option, but there are just some of the reasons why I choose to put some of my money in it and why it shouldn't just be seen as some obscure fad.

Very well said, my friend! I am excited to hear a reply from SurfHB.

jmecklenborg

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #445 on: October 23, 2017, 12:59:04 PM »
I disagree that point 3 is of any advantage, and it is more likely a disadvantage.  Buying bitcoin is not an investment in "blockchain", it is rolling the dice with this nebulous thing with minimal practical use called bitcoin.  As I have stated previously, blockchain might prove very useful to traditional banks so far as improving security and reducing the need for expensive IT security staff.  One of my friends from high school is head of security for a company everyone here has heard of.  He's a nutty dude.  Executives don't like those kinds of guys but they are a necessary evil, from their perspective. 

I remember when my dad was put in charge of his company's Y2K effort.  He has no background in computers but was stuck managing a small gang of dungeons & dragons dudes who milked the clock for two years leading up to the anticlimactic event.  He couldn't wait to lay their goofy asses off.  I'd have to ask him but I don't doubt that he had them escorted out of the building before MLK Day, 2000.   


lifeanon269

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #446 on: October 23, 2017, 01:04:10 PM »
Irregardless of any of this, however, its value as a store of value will always remain since that is mostly dependent upon the soundness and stability of the technology itself.

It's quotes like this that make me extremely wary of cryptocurrencies. That's simply untrue. The only "value" that cryptocurrencies have as a store of value is completely and totally dependent on other people being willing to trade goods / services / other currencies for them. Same as anything else. The technology can be completely sound and stable, but if no one wants to buy your bitcoin then it has lost every bit of its value. Will that happen any time soon? I don't know, but "bitcoin has no real value so it's real value is potentially INFINITE" type quotes certainly don't make me want to trade my USD for your bitcoin.

I knew someone was going to respond with a post like this quoting that exact sentence. Allow me to explain further.

I wasn't suggesting that Bitcoin's value is "infinite". The reason why I say its store of value is tied to how sound the technology is because of the fact that those putting their money in it looking for their money to hold value are doing so on the premise that the network will continue to operate as it does today without any problems or downtime.

If the Bitcoin network experiences downtime or failures or was found not to be as secure as it is against any form of attack, then people would not be willing to store their money in it. First and foremost, it is because Bitcoin is such a sturdy protocol that people feel safe storing their money in it. So long as there are people who continue to feel that Bitcoin is safe from a technological perspective, then there will be people who are looking to buy it. Like you said, any asset's value comes from those who are willing to trade it. The longer the Bitcoin network is online and secure, the harder it will be for people to ignore its value as a secure asset.

The argument you make against Bitcoin above is the same "inherent value" argument against bitcoin that is erroneously often made, you just worded it differently. You can claim that Bitcoin has no inherent value, but I beg to differ. Bitcoin's inherent value comes from the fact that it is an extremely secure and un-manipulated currency who's technology is based on sound mathematical cryptography that has been developed over the course of 40 years. The longer the network remains online, the more and more this holds true.

Essentially what you're suggesting is that all the people who today feel that bitcoin is a safe and secure protocol and are willing to put their hard earned cash in it will someday cease to feel it is a safe and secure protocol...and thus its value would plummet. In order for that to happen, then the network would need to experience some type of hiccup or compromise. In that case, the network would've failed and I'd fully expect its value to drop accordingly (because the technology failed). However, should Bitcoin continue to operate soundly as it does today, then I'd expect that more and more people will continue to see that Bitcoin as a protocol does have value. Outside a worldwide clamp down by governments (even then I do expect Bitcoin to resist such a scenario), then I firmly believe Bitcoin's value is directly correlative to the soundness of the technology itself.

For perspective, even if Bitcoin's market capitalization remained constant from here on out (about $100 billion), then its future value in the year ~2140 when all 21 million Bitcoins are mined would still be about $4760. That's a decline of about 18% over the course of about 123 years or about .146% decline annually. Compared to the USD which declines over 3% annually (more so recently), that's a tremendous store of value comparatively for a currency. That means that even just modest growths in the Bitcoin market over the next several decades will continue to yield Bitcoin being a good store of value for one's money.

Also, my above statement was in regards to the fact that this is all true whether or not Bitcoin is ever used as an everyday currency or not. Bitcoin does not need to be used as an everyday currency for people to realize that it still has value because of the security it provides as a store of value.

lifeanon269

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #447 on: October 23, 2017, 01:16:47 PM »
Your debit card sounds absolutely amazing! I apologize for being so late to the discussion that I hadn't properly read other posts of yours.

Indeed I am trying to figure out whether Bitcoin is a currency, or if the emphasis on investing through it has transformed it more into a commodity a la gold.

My big concern about websites like overstock is that they still quote the prices in $$ until the very end, then they give you the option to pay via Bitcoin. I'm worried that until we start thinking about prices totally within Bitcoin (and you sound like you've built the infrastructure--personally--to do this), it won't be a currency, but more a medium of exchange will be something more akin to payment processing that credit cards are currently providing, rather than being something like the Euro.

Until Bitcoin's volatility declines, then I fully expect businesses who transact directly in bitcoin to utilize a more stable asset (USD) for pricing their goods. I don't see this as a good or bad thing, just as something that is to be expected. There are even crypto-currencies that are developed with price-stability in mind to allow for exchanges between currencies to occur based on a pegged value. Until the market grows big enough where the volatility decreases substantially (complete adoption), then I fully expect good prices to be pegged to a more stable currency such as the USD. That wouldn't stop Bitcoin from being used as a currency however, so I don't really see it as a concern.

EDIT: To further clarify, to address the "mental" perspective you mentioned of one's ability to determine the value of Bitcoin relative to the value of any specific good or service, I don't think there needs to be a complete critical mass understanding of it. Even with USD, many people still have a hard time understanding the value of a good or service as valued in USD. That's why we had a TV show called "The Price is Right" that had participants show how accurately they could determine a good's price in USD. Most people have a rough estimate as to the cost of a good in USD and that is good enough to allow it to act as a universal medium of exchange. Other than that rough understanding, we simply pay what the merchant tells us to pay. Sometimes there is even shock that something cost as much as it did (like when we get a check at a restaurant). Once volatility in Bitcoin diminishes to the point where over the course of a year we can maintain a rough sense of how much something costs in Bitcoin, then the personal mental hurdles of using Bitcoin for purchases will be overcome if merchants ever decide to price their goods solely in Bitcoin without an underlying value in USD.

We're a long way of from having to worry about that though.   :)
« Last Edit: October 23, 2017, 02:17:57 PM by lifeanon269 »

sherr

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #448 on: October 23, 2017, 03:18:47 PM »
Essentially what you're suggesting is that all the people who today feel that bitcoin is a safe and secure protocol and are willing to put their hard earned cash in it will someday cease to feel it is a safe and secure protocol...and thus its value would plummet. In order for that to happen, then the network would need to experience some type of hiccup or compromise [paraphrasing] or there would have to be a worldwide governmental clamp down.

But you're doing it again. Neither of those things are required. All that's required for people to stop feeling safe and secure is for them to stop feeling safe and secure. Again, I don't know that this is the case, but I'm 50-50 on whether the next widespread economic downturn completely crashes bitcoin. If all the speculators "wake up" and realize they need "real money" to buy groceries / pay rent / pay taxes and start trying to sell, then the value of bitcoin will crash to near-nothing. Will there be a sizeable number of people who are willing to keep pouring money into bitcoin in the midst of the next stock market crash and keep the value afloat? Maybe. Will there be a bunch of people who start pouring money into it again afterwards? Maybe. But I don't know that, nor really see a reason they would.

For perspective, even if Bitcoin's market capitalization remained constant from here on out (about $100 billion), then its future value in the year ~2140 when all 21 million Bitcoins are mined would still be about $4760...

Also, my above statement was in regards to the fact that this is all true whether or not Bitcoin is ever used as an everyday currency or not. Bitcoin does not need to be used as an everyday currency for people to realize that it still has value because of the security it provides as a store of value.

But there's no reason whatsoever to assume that the market cap will remain constant or close to constant. It could skyrocket, it could crash to zero. The one and only factor that differentiates these scenarios is people's willingness to continue pouring money into the bitcoin marketplace. It's all pure speculation on future behavior.

I mean, I know I'm being a downer on cryptocurrencies in a crytpcurrency thread. So by all means you do your thing. I will stick to government-backed currencies and investments backed by real appreciating assets.

lifeanon269

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #449 on: October 23, 2017, 05:56:38 PM »
All that's required for people to stop feeling safe and secure is for them to stop feeling safe and secure.

I agree, but people don't just change attitudes about things without some type of forcing. You do realize your statement sounds a little ridiculous, right? Why would someone change their opinion about something unless there was something that caused them to have a change of attitude toward it? In the same way that people's opinions of Bitcoin will favorably change over time given Bitcoin's continued stability, the opposite would also be true. If you agree that people would need to no longer feel that Bitcoin is a safe a secure asset, under what condition would they likely suddenly feel that? I think if you put aside your biases against Bitcoin (you have clear biases when you put "wake up" and "real money" in quotes) and truly answer that question, you'll begin to see how Bitcoin will continue to have a future so long as the technology behind it continues to remain safe and secure.

What makes you feel that the next economic downturn would crash bitcoin? You do realize that the technology came before the speculation correct? The speculation would not have occured had Bitcoin, as a protocol, not shown itself to be a stable and secure network. In fact, the earliest of users of the network weren't speculators, they were visionaries and technologists looking to test the system and get the network up and running and put it through its paces. As the network continued to operate, more and more people saw that it was turning away from being merely an experiment and into something that was truly sound and operational. Therefore, when you make the claim that "Bitcoin will crash to near-nothing", you're suggesting that something would happen to the Bitcoin network that would take it from away from "sound and operational" as it was in its earliest of days when it was indeed worth next to nothing. That means the technology itself would need to fail, which brings me back to my original statement. That's why I ultimately feel that unless there is a true compromise of the network and its secure and sound operation (or something better comes along which is another subject altogether), then Bitcoin will never go to zero in the way that you suggest.

Take gold for example. People always argue how gold has "inherent value" given its uses in industry, electronics, medicine, etc. However, has the market cap for gold ever dropped all the way down to its base market value that only covered its uses for industry, electronics, medicine, etc? If the answer to that is no (which it is), then even during all the economic calamities that gold has withstood as a store of value, it still held value simply because people felt it did, not because of its uses or "inherent value". That means that even during some of the most troubling of economic times, there was still money in gold simply because humans deemed it had some value "just because". The more Bitcoin holds value simply because people feel it does, then it will continue to hold value so long as its technology remains stable enough to justify it.

In other words:

Its the technology that drives its value, not the speculation.

But there's no reason whatsoever to assume that the market cap will remain constant or close to constant. It could skyrocket, it could crash to zero. The one and only factor that differentiates these scenarios is people's willingness to continue pouring money into the bitcoin marketplace. It's all pure speculation on future behavior.

I mean, I know I'm being a downer on cryptocurrencies in a crytpcurrency thread. So by all means you do your thing. I will stick to government-backed currencies and investments backed by real appreciating assets.

I agree, the market cap will likely not remain constant. The point I was making wasn't whether or not the market cap will remain constant. It almost certainly will not. The point I was making was that for Bitcoin to remain a decent store of value long term, very little additional money into the market is required for it to remain a decent store of value. I already addressed above how unlikely it is that Bitcoin will go to zero unless there is a technological mishap. So barring a technical catastrophe, it is more than likely that Bitcoin instead will continue to be a stable store of value given the fact that very little money needs to be infused into the market for it to remain so over the long term. It isn't pure speculation on future market behavior, if anything it is speculation on whether or not the Bitcoin network will remain safe and secure given that fact that its security is what will ultimately drive its adoption rate as has already historically been shown to be true. Given that fact, as someone who has a firm grasp on the technology itself, it will continue to remain a safer investment for me over many of the other options available to me at the moment.

You say that you'll stick with government backed currencies, but all the same critiques you've leveled against Bitcoin can be said of government backed currencies. Fiat currencies are backed by the government, but all that means is that they back them as legal tender under national borders. That doesn't mean that they guarantee their value. That is unless you feel that guaranteeing that they'll be worth less in the future is a valid guarantee. History has shown that citizen faith in any given fiat currency can plummet regardless of whether the government backs its currency.
« Last Edit: October 23, 2017, 06:06:01 PM by lifeanon269 »