Author Topic: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion  (Read 92278 times)

Telecaster

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #950 on: February 05, 2018, 04:52:16 PM »
With that said, I'm not familiar with the tech, teams, development and use-case for many of those cryptos.  On a speculative level, I think they will all probably outperform the stock market by a significant amount within the next three years.  The ones that I am familiar with [ETH, BTC, LSK, IOTA], I expect they will stand a much greater chance of doing this.

I've been trying to mostly just shut up and listen in this thread, but I can't help myself here....You don't want any currency to outperform the stock market, right?  Because if that happens, that means your currency isn't stable--which makes it 100% useless as currency.   If anything, you probably want it do decrease slightly over time. 

I'm going to go out on a limb here, and say that before any crypto gains any traction at all in the regular economy, it will have to function and behavior sort of like money.  The crypto proponents don't seem to care about that, or even see it as desirable. 



aspiringnomad

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #951 on: February 05, 2018, 05:20:39 PM »
I'm kind of sad about it, really.  I think digital currencies are a neat idea and I was hoping they found a good use case.  Unfortunately, like so many cases where there are billions to be made, it looks like criminals took over and rigged the system.

For now and into the foreseeable future, the best use case for crypto (speculation does not count as a use case, per my own definition) is for fraudulent activity that is difficult for authorities to follow or control. There are other use cases to be sure, but I'd wager that after speculative activity, more bitcoin has been exchanged for the purposes of money laundering, purchases of illegal goods, and tax sheltering than for all other reasons combined. So criminals may have gotten more directly involved when the market share of crypto moved into the tens and hundreds of billions of USD, but they've been massive players in this space since shortly after the Bitcoin protocol was released into the wild.

To be fair, cash has always been pretty good for those types of transactions too, but cash still has to be moved physically, and car tires, mattresses, bodies, and mail have long since been risky media to move it in. The blockchain, not so much, at least perhaps until very recently.

OneCoolCat

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #952 on: February 06, 2018, 08:53:52 AM »
I'm kind of sad about it, really.  I think digital currencies are a neat idea and I was hoping they found a good use case.  Unfortunately, like so many cases where there are billions to be made, it looks like criminals took over and rigged the system.

For now and into the foreseeable future, the best use case for crypto (speculation does not count as a use case, per my own definition) is for fraudulent activity that is difficult for authorities to follow or control. There are other use cases to be sure, but I'd wager that after speculative activity, more bitcoin has been exchanged for the purposes of money laundering, purchases of illegal goods, and tax sheltering than for all other reasons combined. So criminals may have gotten more directly involved when the market share of crypto moved into the tens and hundreds of billions of USD, but they've been massive players in this space since shortly after the Bitcoin protocol was released into the wild.

To be fair, cash has always been pretty good for those types of transactions too, but cash still has to be moved physically, and car tires, mattresses, bodies, and mail have long since been risky media to move it in. The blockchain, not so much, at least perhaps until very recently.

This is not accurate.  The blockchain technology is the single greatest use of crypto.  It's transparent and immutable barring a hard-fork, but if a hard-fork occurs its up to the community to determine which chain to follow.  The blockchain has many uses other than just being the best form of currency governance (no one can print more Bitcoins to pay off their debt, no one can freeze your account, merchants can get paid within seconds or even instantly as opposed to waiting days with VISA/Mastercard, cheaper transaction fees, you control and are responsible for your own assets).  Project's utilize their blockchains to verify the authenticity of files [DeepOnion], verify supermarket products are genuine [Wabi], allow immutable record keeping [Factom], and the ever improving smart contract development of various coins that allow cheap and seamless transactions.  New uses of the blockchain technology arises everyday and even the staunchest adversaries of crypto appreciate the blockchain capabilities. 

Bitcoin is the last medium I would use for any illicit purposes.  Bitcoin is not private as its built upon a public ledger and there are government entities out there that successfully link Bitcoin accounts to owners.  This is why cash, not Bitcoin, is king of the black market.  There are however privacy coins, again not Bitcoin, that utilize unique technologies to allow untraceable payments.  These coins make up a much smaller portion of the broader marketcap.

Regarding to comment on whether I want crypto to continue outperforming the stock market... Of course I do.  Blockchain technology is still in its infancy and it adds value to the underlying cryptocurrencies.  As the blockchain technology further develops, I'll use Bitcoin as an example, i.e. resolves its scalability issues with the Lightning Network, it would be completely feasible to use Bitcoin for daily purchases and not worry about transaction speeds and costs.  More people may be drawn to crypto and we may see mass adoption of cryptocurrency as a currency.  Lightning transactions are already being conducted on Bitcoin's mainet so the future is bright.  No one denies that much of Bitcoin's price is driven by speculation.  This creates bubbles which is why I and just about everyone else fully expected this bubble pop (which is why we aren't freaking out) but just didn't know when it would be.  This speculation driven investment is not unique to crypto, it happens in stocks all the time.  With P/e ratios so high, most prominently in tech (hmmmm), its only rational to acknowledge tech stocks are largely driven by speculation.  As long as the speculation is rational and one doesn't go all-in on it then I don't see a problem with it.

Regarding Tether, people in crypto don't like Tether for precisely that reason.  I believe the people holding it are ill-informed.  One of the things about crypto is that you are responsible for your own actions and keys.  Tether reeks and a lot of people may get burned.  The warning bells have been going off since it came out.  It doesn't say anything about the blockchain or cryptocurrencies as a whole other than stress the necessity of doing your own due diligence.
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sol

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #953 on: February 06, 2018, 11:06:55 AM »
It doesn't say anything about the blockchain or cryptocurrencies as a whole other than stress the necessity of doing your own due diligence.

You don't think outright fraud on the biggest exchange says anything about cryptocurrencies?

How do you feel about unregulated and totally opaque fractional reserve banking?  Because that's how tether (a privately owned corporation) is underwriting the entire global crypto market.  They're using the exact same form of fiat currency control that crypto was designed to avoid!  Only no one is even checking them!  It's lunacy, as far as I can tell.

I suspect the wholele thing will come crashing down eventually.  As soon as people lose faith in it, there will be a run on tether and it will suddenly be painfully obvious that there are no dollars behind it.  And George Bailey won't be able to claim that your money is invested in your neighbor's house, because it's not like there are any tangible assets behind crypto lending.  The current price appears to be smoke and mirrors, held up by nothing except the hodl meme.

Telecaster

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #954 on: February 06, 2018, 01:44:55 PM »
Regarding to comment on whether I want crypto to continue outperforming the stock market... Of course I do.  Blockchain technology is still in its infancy and it adds value to the underlying cryptocurrencies.  As the blockchain technology further develops, I'll use Bitcoin as an example, i.e. resolves its scalability issues with the Lightning Network, it would be completely feasible to use Bitcoin for daily purchases and not worry about transaction speeds and costs.

As a currency gets more and more valuable, by definition that means the currency is deflating right?   Deflation is not a good thing.  At some point, people forgot that the second part of "cryptocurrency" is "currency."  Unstable currencies are useless as money.  Let's look at a common type of transaction: paying wages.  In a deflationary environment--which you say you hope occurs--wages get more and more expensive as the currency gets more and more valuable.  What businesses do then is cut payroll.  That means people spend less, which causes more deflation.  And there are all sorts of other problems with deflation too.   As the currency deflates, things get cheaper.  So it makes sense to defer purchases as long as possible.  That means demand drops, and you can see where that leads.  Not Good.   This is not hypothetical.  An example of what happens in times of deflation was the Great Depression.  And you are saying every economist's nightmare scenario is your preferred outcome?  I don't think you realize how insane that sounds. 

Then you go onto say there is nothing wrong with a bit of speculation.  Fair enough.  That's fine...for stocks.  But not for currency.  All businesses operate on credit in some form.  Even say, a plumber does the work, and gets paid after the job is done.   If the currency value can over night....how soon does he need to get paid?  And how long is his bid good for?  And virtually all businesses use at least some debt.  GM, Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, all have debt on the books.  How can you take out a loan, if you can't estimate the future costs of the loan?  If your currency is bouncing around in value, you can't accurately calculate future costs or schedule future payments, and scheduling future payments is how the world financial system operates.   And if you think about it, how it always has operated.  The thing you don't see a problem with actually makes crypto 100% useless as currency. 


OneCoolCat

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #955 on: February 06, 2018, 02:17:06 PM »
It doesn't say anything about the blockchain or cryptocurrencies as a whole other than stress the necessity of doing your own due diligence.

You don't think outright fraud on the biggest exchange says anything about cryptocurrencies?

How do you feel about unregulated and totally opaque fractional reserve banking?  Because that's how tether (a privately owned corporation) is underwriting the entire global crypto market.  They're using the exact same form of fiat currency control that crypto was designed to avoid!  Only no one is even checking them!  It's lunacy, as far as I can tell.

I suspect the wholele thing will come crashing down eventually.  As soon as people lose faith in it, there will be a run on tether and it will suddenly be painfully obvious that there are no dollars behind it.  And George Bailey won't be able to claim that your money is invested in your neighbor's house, because it's not like there are any tangible assets behind crypto lending.  The current price appears to be smoke and mirrors, held up by nothing except the hodl meme.

You misunderstood me.  I dislike Tether very much and most of the crytpo community shares my sentiment towards it.  I also suspect Tether will go down in a blaze of agony.  If it is a scam then its wouldn't be the first and it won't be the last time the majority of the crypto community sighs and mumbles, "I told you so."  The fact that Tether "may", ok probably, is a fraud doesn't speak to the cryptocurrencies as a whole.  People are free to keep Tether if they want and all we can do is tell them its probably a fraud.  Literally 95% of the crypto community has been calling Tether out since it came out so I don't understand how the centralized tether represents the broader crypto markets as a whole.
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OneCoolCat

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #956 on: February 06, 2018, 02:44:01 PM »
Regarding to comment on whether I want crypto to continue outperforming the stock market... Of course I do.  Blockchain technology is still in its infancy and it adds value to the underlying cryptocurrencies.  As the blockchain technology further develops, I'll use Bitcoin as an example, i.e. resolves its scalability issues with the Lightning Network, it would be completely feasible to use Bitcoin for daily purchases and not worry about transaction speeds and costs.

As a currency gets more and more valuable, by definition that means the currency is deflating right?   Deflation is not a good thing.  At some point, people forgot that the second part of "cryptocurrency" is "currency."  Unstable currencies are useless as money.  Let's look at a common type of transaction: paying wages.  In a deflationary environment--which you say you hope occurs--wages get more and more expensive as the currency gets more and more valuable.  What businesses do then is cut payroll.  That means people spend less, which causes more deflation.  And there are all sorts of other problems with deflation too.   As the currency deflates, things get cheaper.  So it makes sense to defer purchases as long as possible.  That means demand drops, and you can see where that leads.  Not Good.   This is not hypothetical.  An example of what happens in times of deflation was the Great Depression.  And you are saying every economist's nightmare scenario is your preferred outcome?  I don't think you realize how insane that sounds. 

Then you go onto say there is nothing wrong with a bit of speculation.  Fair enough.  That's fine...for stocks.  But not for currency.  All businesses operate on credit in some form.  Even say, a plumber does the work, and gets paid after the job is done.   If the currency value can over night....how soon does he need to get paid?  And how long is his bid good for?  And virtually all businesses use at least some debt.  GM, Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, all have debt on the books.  How can you take out a loan, if you can't estimate the future costs of the loan?  If your currency is bouncing around in value, you can't accurately calculate future costs or schedule future payments, and scheduling future payments is how the world financial system operates.   And if you think about it, how it always has operated.  The thing you don't see a problem with actually makes crypto 100% useless as currency.

Inflation/deflation is a concern for all economies.  Everyone knows Bitcoin is not ready for mainstream adoption because its still speculative and hence subject to extreme volatility.  Most economist predicted that the advent of futures trading would bring a crushing reality to cryptocurrencies which would be followed by dramatically less volatility.  The volatility has been great for gains but it presents a barrier to business integration of cryptocurrencies.  We've seen companies such as Steam outright discontinue accepting cryptocurrency as a form of payment due to the volatility.  Many crypto hodlers, predicted the futures would bring big money into crypto and drive prices higher; they were wrong and the economist were right.  If they continue to be right, volatility will be much less which would be attractive for many businesses; they have said so themselves.  The more businesses that accept it, the more mainstream crypto use becomes which leads to even less volatility.  Then you can start thinking about taking your wages in crypto.  Crypto is still in its infancy but the seeds are sprouting and the roots have dug in.  This is the reason why the crypto community recognizes that futures trading is good for the ultimate goal of mass adoption even if at the core the community is distrusting of Wall Street. 

People take out loans in cryptocurrencies all the time.  It's done P2P and collateral is used.  Many people make a living off it.  As it becomes more widely used, there will be no reason for the traditional loans to be made with crypto.  There aren't any barriers that won't be resolved by reduced volatility. 

In fact, I can foresee lending being enhanced by the blockchain because contracts could be signed within the immutable blockchain.  Transfers of funds could be quick and easy and the signed block within the blockchain is pretty good evidence of a loan.  Heck, the actual contract itself can be hashed and that hash value imprinted directly onto DeepOnion's blockchain right now.  There are lots of cool things that the blockchain is already being used for and even more projects are sprouting up to improve on it.
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thenextguy

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #957 on: February 06, 2018, 03:16:16 PM »
Very interesting hearings today at the Senate Banking Committee.

Quote
I was an early investor in cell phones back in the '80s, and I believe #blockchain has the potential to be just as transformational as cell phones. As our government begins to look at #crypto, I don't think you can separate #cryptocurrencies from the technology they're based on.

https://twitter.com/MarkWarner/status/960986368523587584

aspiringnomad

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #958 on: February 06, 2018, 04:18:42 PM »
I'm kind of sad about it, really.  I think digital currencies are a neat idea and I was hoping they found a good use case.  Unfortunately, like so many cases where there are billions to be made, it looks like criminals took over and rigged the system.

For now and into the foreseeable future, the best use case for crypto (speculation does not count as a use case, per my own definition) is for fraudulent activity that is difficult for authorities to follow or control. There are other use cases to be sure, but I'd wager that after speculative activity, more bitcoin has been exchanged for the purposes of money laundering, purchases of illegal goods, and tax sheltering than for all other reasons combined. So criminals may have gotten more directly involved when the market share of crypto moved into the tens and hundreds of billions of USD, but they've been massive players in this space since shortly after the Bitcoin protocol was released into the wild.

To be fair, cash has always been pretty good for those types of transactions too, but cash still has to be moved physically, and car tires, mattresses, bodies, and mail have long since been risky media to move it in. The blockchain, not so much, at least perhaps until very recently.

This is not accurate.  The blockchain technology is the single greatest use of crypto.  It's transparent and immutable barring a hard-fork, but if a hard-fork occurs its up to the community to determine which chain to follow.  The blockchain has many uses other than just being the best form of currency governance (no one can print more Bitcoins to pay off their debt, no one can freeze your account, merchants can get paid within seconds or even instantly as opposed to waiting days with VISA/Mastercard, cheaper transaction fees, you control and are responsible for your own assets).  Project's utilize their blockchains to verify the authenticity of files [DeepOnion], verify supermarket products are genuine [Wabi], allow immutable record keeping [Factom], and the ever improving smart contract development of various coins that allow cheap and seamless transactions.  New uses of the blockchain technology arises everyday and even the staunchest adversaries of crypto appreciate the blockchain capabilities. 

Bitcoin is the last medium I would use for any illicit purposes.  Bitcoin is not private as its built upon a public ledger and there are government entities out there that successfully link Bitcoin accounts to owners.  This is why cash, not Bitcoin, is king of the black market.  There are however privacy coins, again not Bitcoin, that utilize unique technologies to allow untraceable payments.  These coins make up a much smaller portion of the broader marketcap.

Regarding to comment on whether I want crypto to continue outperforming the stock market... Of course I do.  Blockchain technology is still in its infancy and it adds value to the underlying cryptocurrencies.  As the blockchain technology further develops, I'll use Bitcoin as an example, i.e. resolves its scalability issues with the Lightning Network, it would be completely feasible to use Bitcoin for daily purchases and not worry about transaction speeds and costs.  More people may be drawn to crypto and we may see mass adoption of cryptocurrency as a currency.  Lightning transactions are already being conducted on Bitcoin's mainet so the future is bright.  No one denies that much of Bitcoin's price is driven by speculation.  This creates bubbles which is why I and just about everyone else fully expected this bubble pop (which is why we aren't freaking out) but just didn't know when it would be.  This speculation driven investment is not unique to crypto, it happens in stocks all the time.  With P/e ratios so high, most prominently in tech (hmmmm), its only rational to acknowledge tech stocks are largely driven by speculation.  As long as the speculation is rational and one doesn't go all-in on it then I don't see a problem with it.

Regarding Tether, people in crypto don't like Tether for precisely that reason.  I believe the people holding it are ill-informed.  One of the things about crypto is that you are responsible for your own actions and keys.  Tether reeks and a lot of people may get burned.  The warning bells have been going off since it came out.  It doesn't say anything about the blockchain or cryptocurrencies as a whole other than stress the necessity of doing your own due diligence.

Yes there are now blockchain specialists that can trace accounts to people with enough ancillary information to aid their sleuthing, but for several years authorities were not keeping up and thus bitcoin was a means of conducting a shit ton of illegal activity. It's still the strongest use case today and has expanded into alt coins despite the crack downs in certain countries.

A lot of what you wrote was also purely your opinion, which is fair because I was largely starting my own. I only point that out because you really didn't present any facts I didn't already know. A lot of crypto enthusiasts seem to think they know more than everyone else, and ipso facto, blockchain is the best thing ever invented. I've been following bitcoin, other crypto, and blockchain use cases to some degree for over five years now. I own and have used crypto mainly so I could get sense of its usefulness relative to other mediums of exchange and for a bit of fun speculation. I'm still bearish on all existing crypto and think that blockchain tech, while certainly a cool innovation in accounting, has been overhyped by crypto enthusiasts who want to conflate that with the speculative value of their crypto holdings. I guess we'll see over time whether it really does become the most life-changing innovation since harnessing electricity.

effigy98

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #959 on: February 06, 2018, 05:27:14 PM »
Keep an eye on ZCL for the BTCP fork: https://www.reddit.com/r/ZClassic/comments/7mg5je/zcl_btcp_faq/. This is a good opportunity for some short term potential gains. The price has held very strong relative to the other cryptos.

jmecklenborg

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #960 on: February 06, 2018, 06:09:54 PM »
In fact, I can foresee lending being enhanced by the blockchain because contracts could be signed within the immutable blockchain.  Transfers of funds could be quick and easy and the signed block within the blockchain is pretty good evidence of a loan.  Heck, the actual contract itself can be hashed and that hash value imprinted directly onto DeepOnion's blockchain right now.  There are lots of cool things that the blockchain is already being used for and even more projects are sprouting up to improve on it.


Well it's pretty damn easy to get a loan today, given the massive indebtedness of the American public.  The last time I got a car loan was 2006 and I remember the process being quick and painless.  Applied on Bank of America's website, a day later a dude called me from their office, the next day the money was in my account.  More recently I emailed the credit union for a personal loan to buy a small piece of land.  They wrote back the same day and said let us know when you need it and we'll put it in your account.  A week later I wrote back and said hey I've got a closing date.  The money showed up that day or the next.

The whole problem with the blockchain "revolution" is that we're already 20 years into internet banking.  You can already do almost everything instantly or within a few business days.  It's very rare that an ordinary person needs to borrow or move around a massive amount of money RIGHT NOW. 

Blockchain could disrupt ordinary credit cards and store credit cards, as I speculated here months ago, if stores create their own currencies and charge 3% more to use a traditional credit card.  But this doesn't present any sort of advantage for the consumer, other than hopefully reducing prices in part by reducing a company's IT expenses.   





effigy98

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #961 on: February 06, 2018, 06:24:11 PM »
Well it's pretty damn easy to get a loan today.

Unless you are one of the 30 million people in america who are underbanked. The world market is much worse.
https://www.americanprogress.org/issues/economy/reports/2014/10/30/99967/millions-of-americans-are-outside-the-financial-system/

sol

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #962 on: February 06, 2018, 06:32:51 PM »
Unless you are one of the 30 million people in america who are underbanked.

How does crypto help the unbanked?  They just fire up their laptops and log in to coinbase?

The problem with the unbanked is not their data security or transfer verifiability, it's their lack of access to technology.  I don't see how blockchain helps them. 

Telecaster

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #963 on: February 06, 2018, 07:51:08 PM »
Well it's pretty damn easy to get a loan today.

Unless you are one of the 30 million people in america who are underbanked. The world market is much worse.
https://www.americanprogress.org/issues/economy/reports/2014/10/30/99967/millions-of-americans-are-outside-the-financial-system/

I'll bite.  I don't have a bank account and I want use Bitcoin to get a loan and buy a car.    Walk me through the process. 

OneCoolCat

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #964 on: February 06, 2018, 08:23:25 PM »
I'm kind of sad about it, really.  I think digital currencies are a neat idea and I was hoping they found a good use case.  Unfortunately, like so many cases where there are billions to be made, it looks like criminals took over and rigged the system.

For now and into the foreseeable future, the best use case for crypto (speculation does not count as a use case, per my own definition) is for fraudulent activity that is difficult for authorities to follow or control. There are other use cases to be sure, but I'd wager that after speculative activity, more bitcoin has been exchanged for the purposes of money laundering, purchases of illegal goods, and tax sheltering than for all other reasons combined. So criminals may have gotten more directly involved when the market share of crypto moved into the tens and hundreds of billions of USD, but they've been massive players in this space since shortly after the Bitcoin protocol was released into the wild.

To be fair, cash has always been pretty good for those types of transactions too, but cash still has to be moved physically, and car tires, mattresses, bodies, and mail have long since been risky media to move it in. The blockchain, not so much, at least perhaps until very recently.

This is not accurate.  The blockchain technology is the single greatest use of crypto.  It's transparent and immutable barring a hard-fork, but if a hard-fork occurs its up to the community to determine which chain to follow.  The blockchain has many uses other than just being the best form of currency governance (no one can print more Bitcoins to pay off their debt, no one can freeze your account, merchants can get paid within seconds or even instantly as opposed to waiting days with VISA/Mastercard, cheaper transaction fees, you control and are responsible for your own assets).  Project's utilize their blockchains to verify the authenticity of files [DeepOnion], verify supermarket products are genuine [Wabi], allow immutable record keeping [Factom], and the ever improving smart contract development of various coins that allow cheap and seamless transactions.  New uses of the blockchain technology arises everyday and even the staunchest adversaries of crypto appreciate the blockchain capabilities. 

Bitcoin is the last medium I would use for any illicit purposes.  Bitcoin is not private as its built upon a public ledger and there are government entities out there that successfully link Bitcoin accounts to owners.  This is why cash, not Bitcoin, is king of the black market.  There are however privacy coins, again not Bitcoin, that utilize unique technologies to allow untraceable payments.  These coins make up a much smaller portion of the broader marketcap.

Regarding to comment on whether I want crypto to continue outperforming the stock market... Of course I do.  Blockchain technology is still in its infancy and it adds value to the underlying cryptocurrencies.  As the blockchain technology further develops, I'll use Bitcoin as an example, i.e. resolves its scalability issues with the Lightning Network, it would be completely feasible to use Bitcoin for daily purchases and not worry about transaction speeds and costs.  More people may be drawn to crypto and we may see mass adoption of cryptocurrency as a currency.  Lightning transactions are already being conducted on Bitcoin's mainet so the future is bright.  No one denies that much of Bitcoin's price is driven by speculation.  This creates bubbles which is why I and just about everyone else fully expected this bubble pop (which is why we aren't freaking out) but just didn't know when it would be.  This speculation driven investment is not unique to crypto, it happens in stocks all the time.  With P/e ratios so high, most prominently in tech (hmmmm), its only rational to acknowledge tech stocks are largely driven by speculation.  As long as the speculation is rational and one doesn't go all-in on it then I don't see a problem with it.

Regarding Tether, people in crypto don't like Tether for precisely that reason.  I believe the people holding it are ill-informed.  One of the things about crypto is that you are responsible for your own actions and keys.  Tether reeks and a lot of people may get burned.  The warning bells have been going off since it came out.  It doesn't say anything about the blockchain or cryptocurrencies as a whole other than stress the necessity of doing your own due diligence.

Yes there are now blockchain specialists that can trace accounts to people with enough ancillary information to aid their sleuthing, but for several years authorities were not keeping up and thus bitcoin was a means of conducting a shit ton of illegal activity. It's still the strongest use case today and has expanded into alt coins despite the crack downs in certain countries.

A lot of what you wrote was also purely your opinion, which is fair because I was largely starting my own. I only point that out because you really didn't present any facts I didn't already know. A lot of crypto enthusiasts seem to think they know more than everyone else, and ipso facto, blockchain is the best thing ever invented. I've been following bitcoin, other crypto, and blockchain use cases to some degree for over five years now. I own and have used crypto mainly so I could get sense of its usefulness relative to other mediums of exchange and for a bit of fun speculation. I'm still bearish on all existing crypto and think that blockchain tech, while certainly a cool innovation in accounting, has been overhyped by crypto enthusiasts who want to conflate that with the speculative value of their crypto holdings. I guess we'll see over time whether it really does become the most life-changing innovation since harnessing electricity.

Your statement that the best use case for crypto is for fraudulent activity is argumentum ad nauseam.  I already explained why its untrue.
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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #965 on: February 06, 2018, 08:27:05 PM »
Unless you are one of the 30 million people in america who are underbanked.

How does crypto help the unbanked?  They just fire up their laptops and log in to coinbase?

The problem with the unbanked is not their data security or transfer verifiability, it's their lack of access to technology.  I don't see how blockchain helps them.

Check out OmiseGO.  Omise is an established company in South East Asia that offers lending services.  Their whole crypto project is supposed to have something to do with banking the unbanked.  I haven't researched it but I'm sure your answer is in their white paper.  This is me speculating here, but perhaps the unbanked have access to smart phones? 
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Padonak

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #966 on: February 06, 2018, 08:51:59 PM »
Unless you are one of the 30 million people in america who are underbanked.

How does crypto help the unbanked?  They just fire up their laptops and log in to coinbase?

The problem with the unbanked is not their data security or transfer verifiability, it's their lack of access to technology.  I don't see how blockchain helps them.

Check out OmiseGO.  Omise is an established company in South East Asia that offers lending services.  Their whole crypto project is supposed to have something to do with banking the unbanked.  I haven't researched it but I'm sure your answer is in their white paper.  This is me speculating here, but perhaps the unbanked have access to smart phones?

Their goal is not to bank the unbanked, it's to unbank the banked (check their website if you don't believe me). Which means that when their "investors" lose money they paid for overpriced "tokens", the won't need banks anymore. Boom! Mission accomplished.

But don't believe my FUD. OmiseGo signed Thai McDonalds as a merchant, also Thai Ministry of Finance supports them, so PayPal watch out! Their CEO also speaks Japanese as a first language and crypto bullshit jargon as a second language.

trollwithamustache

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #967 on: February 07, 2018, 11:48:15 AM »
Unless you are one of the 30 million people in america who are underbanked.

How does crypto help the unbanked?  They just fire up their laptops and log in to coinbase?

The problem with the unbanked is not their data security or transfer verifiability, it's their lack of access to technology.  I don't see how blockchain helps them.

I'm assuming the unbanked have cell phones. Pay as you go, not a good deal?, mission impossible burner phones sure. But nonetheless they are already paying for the device.  If you install a mobile wallet, you pay a small fee to get your BTC transferred to your wallet and then it can sit their for no cost other that what it costs you to maintain the device.

whats your bank equivalent?  I keep a monster balance and have direct deposit to get my checking account for free. The savings account has a transaction limit too. If you are irregularly making a few k a month you will never avoid bank fees.

Yes, I am assuming that BTC/crypto of choice is actually a store of value. Its also assuming something like the Lightening network for BTC comes to be in the real world and is everything its promised to be.  So, the technology when its fully baked could be very helpful to the unbanked.

runbikerun

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #968 on: February 07, 2018, 12:57:33 PM »
Unless you are one of the 30 million people in america who are underbanked.

How does crypto help the unbanked?  They just fire up their laptops and log in to coinbase?

The problem with the unbanked is not their data security or transfer verifiability, it's their lack of access to technology.  I don't see how blockchain helps them.

I'm assuming the unbanked have cell phones. Pay as you go, not a good deal?, mission impossible burner phones sure. But nonetheless they are already paying for the device.  If you install a mobile wallet, you pay a small fee to get your BTC transferred to your wallet and then it can sit their for no cost other that what it costs you to maintain the device.

whats your bank equivalent?  I keep a monster balance and have direct deposit to get my checking account for free. The savings account has a transaction limit too. If you are irregularly making a few k a month you will never avoid bank fees.

Yes, I am assuming that BTC/crypto of choice is actually a store of value. Its also assuming something like the Lightening network for BTC comes to be in the real world and is everything its promised to be.  So, the technology when its fully baked could be very helpful to the unbanked.

Let me get this right:

Option A is suboptimal (existing bank structures).
Option B is suboptimal, has herpes, and is on fire (the existing crypto system).

You have more faith in Option B's future?

waltworks

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #969 on: February 07, 2018, 01:15:49 PM »
Well it's pretty damn easy to get a loan today.

Unless you are one of the 30 million people in america who are underbanked. The world market is much worse.
https://www.americanprogress.org/issues/economy/reports/2014/10/30/99967/millions-of-americans-are-outside-the-financial-system/

Those people can't get a loan because they have no assets, collateral, or steady income sufficient to justify giving them one. Having a bank account does suck for them, but it has nothing to do with their creditworthiness. Why would I give one of those folks a loan in Bitcoins (or whatever) when I won't give them a loan in dollars?

-W

GuitarStv

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #970 on: February 07, 2018, 02:05:19 PM »
Well it's pretty damn easy to get a loan today.

Unless you are one of the 30 million people in america who are underbanked. The world market is much worse.
https://www.americanprogress.org/issues/economy/reports/2014/10/30/99967/millions-of-americans-are-outside-the-financial-system/

Those people can't get a loan because they have no assets, collateral, or steady income sufficient to justify giving them one. Having a bank account does suck for them, but it has nothing to do with their creditworthiness. Why would I give one of those folks a loan in Bitcoins (or whatever) when I won't give them a loan in dollars?

-W

Because . . . smart contract, mumble mumble, FIAT CURRENCY BAD . . . libertarian mumble whitepaper mumble unbanked, mumble don't understand the technology man!

effigy98

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #971 on: February 07, 2018, 03:29:24 PM »
Interesting points from Cameron Winklevoss about investing in the protocol vs picking individual winners.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4r6OpXO8AUQ

effigy98

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #972 on: February 07, 2018, 03:37:43 PM »
This is pretty insane. There are a lot of people (mostly millenials) investing in small transactions for stocks using RobinHood. Now they will do the same with crypto. This also puts massive pressure on existing exchanges to do better and lower fees. As millenials grow in their careers (which I see all over the tech space) they make huge leaps in earning power that will be pooring in for the next 10 years. All of this is great for both crypto and stocks.

https://cointelegraph.com/news/over-1-mln-people-sign-up-for-early-access-to-robinhoods-zero-fees-trading-service

Look at the recent robinhood user growth!
https://techcrunch.com/2017/04/26/robincorn/

Telecaster

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #973 on: February 07, 2018, 04:20:16 PM »
This is pretty insane. There are a lot of people (mostly millenials) investing in small transactions for stocks using RobinHood. Now they will do the same with crypto. This also puts massive pressure on existing exchanges to do better and lower fees. As millenials grow in their careers (which I see all over the tech space) they make huge leaps in earning power that will be pooring in for the next 10 years. All of this is great for both crypto and stocks.

https://cointelegraph.com/news/over-1-mln-people-sign-up-for-early-access-to-robinhoods-zero-fees-trading-service

Look at the recent robinhood user growth!
https://techcrunch.com/2017/04/26/robincorn/

Robinhood has literally the stupidest business model I've ever heard:

Robinhood has gone straight for this problem, and made it zero-fee, even though it will essentially be a ‘loss leader’ meaning they will not be making money off of this feature. Robinhood are more interested in growing their crypto community base, and by growing their base, they will also be taking users away from those who are profiting from the fees.


"What we lose on every transaction we make up for in volume..."

Re:  The Winklevie Twins.  The first Winklevie Twin clearly has no concept about what money is or how it works.  Gold doesn't work very well as currency, in part because the supply is fixed, or at least it is hard to grow it at the same rate as the economy, which leads to all sorts of problems.  I mean, if gold worked well, how come nobody uses for currency?  Hint:  It doesn't work well. 

The second Winklevie Twin spouted a bunch smug blather that sounded like English, but had no meaning. 



PDXTabs

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #974 on: February 07, 2018, 04:42:08 PM »
@trollwithamustache @sol,

Do you know any unbanked people? My local credit union definitely has fee free options for people with irregular income. Everyone I know that is unbanked is unbanked because they have some sort of unpaid debt that would get collected from their accounts. Cryptocurrency can solve this problem, but not in any great way (stable value, etc).
When the alien resides with you in your land, you shall not oppress the alien. The alien who resides with you shall be to you as the citizen among you; you shall love the alien as yourself, for you were aliens in the land of Egypt. - Leviticus 19:33-4

Telecaster

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #975 on: February 07, 2018, 04:53:43 PM »
@trollwithamustache @sol,

Do you know any unbanked people? My local credit union definitely has fee free options for people with irregular income. Everyone I know that is unbanked is unbanked because they have some sort of unpaid debt that would get collected from their accounts. Cryptocurrency can solve this problem, but not in any great way (stable value, etc).

It could solve that problem, if there was reasonable acceptance of cryptocurrency as payment.  But no grocery stores, gas stations, landlords, utility companies, etc. accept crypto for payment.  They do however, accept cash.  And as you point out, cash is unlikely to lose half its value in two months like we saw with Bitcoin.




sol

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #976 on: February 07, 2018, 05:12:40 PM »
@trollwithamustache @sol,

Do you know any unbanked people?

Yes, many.

Most of them work in cash, to avoid paper trails.  Illegal immigrants and drug dealers, for example, typically avoid bank accounts.

I've also met more than my fair share of people living in poverty around the world, which is by far the larger share of the unbanked population.  They don't have electricity or indoor plumbing, but lots them have gardens that produce food they can sell (and eat) or tools that they use to perform labor.  They also mostly deal in cash, or sometimes with local credit arrangements within neighborhoods or communities.  Like I'll share my nut harvest if you share your goat milk, or I'll help you replace your roof if you help me repair my fence.

Some of them have cell phones, which in the developing world can now be used for electronic banking.  That was true long before crypto came along.

I just don't see how blockchain helps any of these people.  Their problems are not solved by distributed encryption.

Telecaster

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #977 on: February 07, 2018, 05:34:18 PM »
I just don't see how blockchain helps any of these people.  Their problems are not solved by distributed encryption.

Yes!!  Block chain is a distributed ledger that everyone can read.  So, what types of problems might block chain solve? I can see internal transactions between divisions of a company, chain-of-title for real estate, provenance for works of art, supply chain,  aircraft maintenance, stuff like that.  It isn't hard to think up of lots of areas where block chain might be helpful. 

So why does the under banked population need a distributed ledger that everyone can read?   They don't!!  These are not hard concepts. 


Surf

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #978 on: February 12, 2018, 01:02:15 AM »
MMM is an awesome resource! I had moderately mustachian financial habits already - I never carry revolving credit debt, aggressively pay down mortgage/long term debt, buy reliable cars and keep them for long periods, exercise environmental stewardship through reuse and purchasing used items, insource as many tasks as possible, etc.  I've been powering through these blog / forum posts and it's really given me a push to make further strides as there is so much more to learn and do.  Really grateful for all the info on here and this community!

I was excited to see a crypto discussion thread here on MMM forum, it's disappointing it's devolved so much.  I have been researching cryptocurrencies and will do my best to provide some useful information.   Disclaimer: I hold BTC and a selection of alts, in an amount that I'm comfortable losing.

My personal interpretation of Mustachianism is to work hard and live frugally such that we will be financially sound across as many possible future scenarios as possible.

By design this eliminates a host of get-rich-quick schemes as they will only yield financial security in a small handful of possible futures.  This includes cryptocurrencies.  If you aren't already maxing out 401ks and paying down high interest debt, save this for later.

So you're building your 'stash, paid down your high interest debt, and living frugally. So why bother with crypto?

Cryptocurrencies' main role in a modern portfolio is diversification

In some potential futures crypto growth outstrips that of conventional investments and having a small piece adds to overall profitability of one's portfolio.

A reasoned analysis of blockchain tech impact in the modern world by harvard business review, turning the "disruptive technology" idea on its head:
https://hbr.org/2017/01/the-truth-about-blockchain

tl;dr: Blockchain's utility is not to overthrow traditional institutions, it is to create new foundations for better versions of traditional institutions. This is a gradual process that will take years/decades.

The vast majority of future timelines contain a continued and successful traditional financial market, along with streamlined digital transactions that save users money and make currently difficult tasks much easier such as payments, digital identity verification, and proof of ownership.  This is an entire new sector and having it represented in one's portfolio may offer advantages, though at increased risk.

It can be unpleasant to contemplate highly unlikely yet highly impactful future outcomes such as hyperinflation.   All our eggs are in one giant basket - the traditional financial markets.  Crypto may provide a hedge against the traditional markets in the event the worst should happen. Precious metals have a place in this space as well, even though they can be difficult to transact with.  Being able to do business with anyone using only your cell phone is vastly more practical than carrying around chunks of metal.

Do your research before choosing a cryptocurrency. Things to look out for:
-what is the circulating supply? Total supply? Was the coin "pre-mined" (created out of thin air, usually founders take a huge cut)
-verify mechanistic and political levels of decentralization.  How distributed is the mining / staking that supports it? does a private entity control the ledger?  Is there any evidence that the ledger is not immutable?

Some practical measures:

-only use exchanges for the short term purpose of obtaining the desired currency.  Immediately transfer tokens to a local software or hardware wallet on your computer.
-backup your wallet, preferably offline.  there are many online tutorials for how to do this.

There is a wealth of information out there for security best practices when it comes to managing your own crypto assets.  Do your homework.  And don't use money you cannot afford to lose.
« Last Edit: February 13, 2018, 11:19:06 PM by Surf »

Telecaster

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #979 on: February 12, 2018, 06:09:22 AM »

So you're building your 'stash, paid down your high interest debt, and living frugally. So why invest in crypto?

Cryptocurrencies' main role in a modern portfolio is diversification

Facepunch.

If you assume that crypto currencies are actually currencies (which is a stretch, but let's assume that for now), then crypto should replace or supplement the portion of your portfolio that is currently held in non-dollar currencies.  That portion of your portfolio should equal exactly zero to begin with.  Unless you are currency speculator, but that's speculating, not investing. 

Your whole analysis breaks down breaks because you are assuming there is such a thing as adoption of Bitcoin.  There isn't.  Almost no one uses it for anything.   The only people who need Bitcoin are child pornographers and drug dealers.  For everybody else, the USD works perfectly.  And even if you are a child pornographer or drug dealer, you still don't need Bitcoin.  You could use Litecoin, or Dogecoin, or Etherium, or Fidleius, or any of a zillion cryptos out there. 

No one, repeat no one, invests in Bitcoin.  People speculate in Bitcoin.  If you want to speculate, more power to ya.  But you are a damn fool if you think speculation is the same as diversification. 

Telecaster

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #980 on: February 12, 2018, 06:47:26 AM »
It can be unpleasant to contemplate highly unlikely yet highly impactful future outcomes such as hyperinflation. 

I swore I wasn't going to nitpick your post, but I just have to comment on this. 

Let's go ahead and contemplate the unpleasant topic of hyperinflation.  BTC has lost 50% of its value in two months.  That is hyperinflation. 

So you are touting a hyperinflating currency as a hedge against hyperinflation?

Really?  That's a selling point?  A primary feature of Bitcoin is that instead of highly unlikely hyperinflation of the USD in the future you can enjoy actual hyperinflation of BTC right now. Sign me up!


L.A.S.

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #981 on: February 12, 2018, 07:10:43 AM »


I was excited to see a crypto discussion thread here on MMM forum, it's disappointing it's devolved so much. I have been researching cryptocurrencies and will do my best to provide some useful information.  Disclaimer: I hold BTC and a selection of alts, in an amount that I'm comfortable losing.



Wow.  First post is a bit of lip-service to MMM principles followed by a long articulate defense of cryptos on what I'm sure many of us were hoping would become a dead thread.  Bravo... Slow clap...

Your devolution is another's evolution.  I'm frankly glad that the resident crypto shills had mostly given up... or at least given it a rest for the time being.  The MMM investing forum was turning into a crypto battleground, that I think was distracting forum members from the true goal of investing which is to become financially secure and/or independent.

Since you have been "powering through the blog," then I'm sure you are by now aware that MMM himself has called bullshit on bitcoin ( http://www.mrmoneymustache.com/2018/01/02/why-bitcoin-is-stupid/ ). So you should not be surprised to find folks around here to be against cryptos.  If you want to talk cryptos, you can save yourself the trouble and just move along.  Or stay here but talk about literally anything else related to investing.  Expect to get horribly flamed if you continue to try to advance the pro-crypto agenda.  The anti-crypto members have a few things going for them: (1) foremost they are right, cryptos are basically B.S. and therefore it will be impossible to prove otherwise,  (2) many are much more intelligent and educated than you and have done more research than you and will systematically dissect any B.S. pro-crypto argument, and (3) many have likely been investing longer than you have been alive and have the experience needed to repel this sort of baloney.

Thank you for disclosing that you own cryptos and have a pecuniary interest*.  I think that is the most important part of your first post.  It's helpful for everyone to know that you are here talkin' your book and will profit if bitcoin goes back up.  There is basically no way for you to be objective.  We know that you will be completely unconvinced by any argument which would would suggest, imply, or prove that they shouldn't go up in price.   

*Disclaimer: I do not own an interest, long or short, in any bitcoins or other shit-coins.  I try to talk people out of them because they are used to finance criminal activity, terrorism, and rogue states.  And I think that they divert capital from legitimate financial markets where it would have been used to finance true economic growth.

bender

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #982 on: February 12, 2018, 07:20:47 AM »
My personal interpretation of Mustachianism is to work hard and live frugally such that we will be financially sound across as many possible future scenarios as possible.

You've missed the sustainability and environmental aspects of MMM.  These are fundamental values of MMM.  Cryptos are so incredibly wasteful when it comes to the energy.

Supporting crypto is like driving a gigantic gas guzzling $100k SUV to work 100 miles each way and say it's ok because you can easily afford it.  Also, you leave it running all day while you work.
« Last Edit: February 12, 2018, 07:24:34 AM by bender »

sol

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #983 on: February 12, 2018, 07:48:04 AM »
Don't be discouraged, Surf.  You're unlikely to get a warm welcome here if you show up sounding like a paid Bitcoin promoter, but if you are a real person who understands the MMM message then you'll find the form generally welcoming and supportive.

trollwithamustache

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #984 on: February 12, 2018, 08:12:59 AM »
@trollwithamustache @sol,

Do you know any unbanked people? My local credit union definitely has fee free options for people with irregular income. Everyone I know that is unbanked is unbanked because they have some sort of unpaid debt that would get collected from their accounts. Cryptocurrency can solve this problem, but not in any great way (stable value, etc).

I have no argument with the statement that my bank sucks.  what is the minimum balance for a free account at your credit union?

Surf

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #985 on: February 12, 2018, 09:01:56 AM »
Don't be discouraged, Surf.  You're unlikely to get a warm welcome here if you show up sounding like a paid Bitcoin promoter, but if you are a real person who understands the MMM message then you'll find the form generally welcoming and supportive.

Thanks Sol, I appreciate that!

The MMM blog and forums have resonated deeply with me.  I'm learning so much every day from it that and I wanted to contribute.

Surf

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #986 on: February 12, 2018, 09:09:32 AM »

So you're building your 'stash, paid down your high interest debt, and living frugally. So why invest in crypto?

Cryptocurrencies' main role in a modern portfolio is diversification

Facepunch.

If you assume that crypto currencies are actually currencies (which is a stretch, but let's assume that for now), then crypto should replace or supplement the portion of your portfolio that is currently held in non-dollar currencies.  That portion of your portfolio should equal exactly zero to begin with.  Unless you are currency speculator, but that's speculating, not investing. 

Your whole analysis breaks down breaks because you are assuming there is such a thing as adoption of Bitcoin.  There isn't.  Almost no one uses it for anything.   The only people who need Bitcoin are child pornographers and drug dealers.  For everybody else, the USD works perfectly.  And even if you are a child pornographer or drug dealer, you still don't need Bitcoin.  You could use Litecoin, or Dogecoin, or Etherium, or Fidleius, or any of a zillion cryptos out there. 

No one, repeat no one, invests in Bitcoin.  People speculate in Bitcoin.  If you want to speculate, more power to ya.  But you are a damn fool if you think speculation is the same as diversification.

Hey Telecaster! 

I won't debate whether the USD works perfectly or whether people are actually using BTC.  The idea is simply that in some potential future timelines there are scenarios where bitcoin adoption becomes widespread, and since its value is tied to usage rate, in those scenarios the value will likely be quite high.  Owning some will provide financial advantages in those timelines. 

I see from the child pornographer comment that you have strong emotional responses to crypto.  This post isn't for you, then, as you don't seem to want to understand it, and that's okay.

Thanks for the warm welcome. :)

Surf

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #987 on: February 12, 2018, 09:13:27 AM »


I was excited to see a crypto discussion thread here on MMM forum, it's disappointing it's devolved so much. I have been researching cryptocurrencies and will do my best to provide some useful information.  Disclaimer: I hold BTC and a selection of alts, in an amount that I'm comfortable losing.



Wow.  First post is a bit of lip-service to MMM principles followed by a long articulate defense of cryptos on what I'm sure many of us were hoping would become a dead thread.  Bravo... Slow clap...

Your devolution is another's evolution.  I'm frankly glad that the resident crypto shills had mostly given up... or at least given it a rest for the time being.  The MMM investing forum was turning into a crypto battleground, that I think was distracting forum members from the true goal of investing which is to become financially secure and/or independent.

Since you have been "powering through the blog," then I'm sure you are by now aware that MMM himself has called bullshit on bitcoin ( http://www.mrmoneymustache.com/2018/01/02/why-bitcoin-is-stupid/ ). So you should not be surprised to find folks around here to be against cryptos.  If you want to talk cryptos, you can save yourself the trouble and just move along.  Or stay here but talk about literally anything else related to investing.  Expect to get horribly flamed if you continue to try to advance the pro-crypto agenda.  The anti-crypto members have a few things going for them: (1) foremost they are right, cryptos are basically B.S. and therefore it will be impossible to prove otherwise,  (2) many are much more intelligent and educated than you and have done more research than you and will systematically dissect any B.S. pro-crypto argument, and (3) many have likely been investing longer than you have been alive and have the experience needed to repel this sort of baloney.

Thank you for disclosing that you own cryptos and have a pecuniary interest*.  I think that is the most important part of your first post.  It's helpful for everyone to know that you are here talkin' your book and will profit if bitcoin goes back up.  There is basically no way for you to be objective.  We know that you will be completely unconvinced by any argument which would would suggest, imply, or prove that they shouldn't go up in price.   

*Disclaimer: I do not own an interest, long or short, in any bitcoins or other shit-coins.  I try to talk people out of them because they are used to finance criminal activity, terrorism, and rogue states.  And I think that they divert capital from legitimate financial markets where it would have been used to finance true economic growth.

Hey LAS,

There's a mod post on the first or second page of this thread asking users to refrain from flaming so that an objective discussion can take place.  I didn't know the consensus was that logical discussion should die.

I did read MMM's blog post about bitcoin.  He seems very good at creating content that will generate heaps of views, which is great because the majority of what is on here is extremely valuable info that should be mandatory reading in high school economics classes.

Surf

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #988 on: February 12, 2018, 09:19:00 AM »
My personal interpretation of Mustachianism is to work hard and live frugally such that we will be financially sound across as many possible future scenarios as possible.

You've missed the sustainability and environmental aspects of MMM.  These are fundamental values of MMM.  Cryptos are so incredibly wasteful when it comes to the energy.

Supporting crypto is like driving a gigantic gas guzzling $100k SUV to work 100 miles each way and say it's ok because you can easily afford it.  Also, you leave it running all day while you work.

Hey bender,

Environmental sustainability is the most important issue facing everyone alive today.

Sustainable energy is often the cheapest energy, and thus mining companies are gravitating towards it faster than traditional companies.

It's difficult to use the eco argument as a pro-finance, anti-crypto stand as owning a US stock index means you directly profit off of the countless oil/gas/coal fossil fuel companies that are destroying our planet and lobbying our government for the rights to do so at greater rates.

Personally I do not run any mining rigs, and I am extremely conscious of my own carbon footprint.  If everyone in america behaved in a mustachian way we could be well on our way to reversing co2 emmisions imo.

L.A.S.

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #989 on: February 12, 2018, 09:30:41 AM »


I was excited to see a crypto discussion thread here on MMM forum, it's disappointing it's devolved so much. I have been researching cryptocurrencies and will do my best to provide some useful information.  Disclaimer: I hold BTC and a selection of alts, in an amount that I'm comfortable losing.



Wow.  First post is a bit of lip-service to MMM principles followed by a long articulate defense of cryptos on what I'm sure many of us were hoping would become a dead thread.  Bravo... Slow clap...

Your devolution is another's evolution.  I'm frankly glad that the resident crypto shills had mostly given up... or at least given it a rest for the time being.  The MMM investing forum was turning into a crypto battleground, that I think was distracting forum members from the true goal of investing which is to become financially secure and/or independent.

Since you have been "powering through the blog," then I'm sure you are by now aware that MMM himself has called bullshit on bitcoin ( http://www.mrmoneymustache.com/2018/01/02/why-bitcoin-is-stupid/ ). So you should not be surprised to find folks around here to be against cryptos.  If you want to talk cryptos, you can save yourself the trouble and just move along.  Or stay here but talk about literally anything else related to investing.  Expect to get horribly flamed if you continue to try to advance the pro-crypto agenda.  The anti-crypto members have a few things going for them: (1) foremost they are right, cryptos are basically B.S. and therefore it will be impossible to prove otherwise,  (2) many are much more intelligent and educated than you and have done more research than you and will systematically dissect any B.S. pro-crypto argument, and (3) many have likely been investing longer than you have been alive and have the experience needed to repel this sort of baloney.

Thank you for disclosing that you own cryptos and have a pecuniary interest*.  I think that is the most important part of your first post.  It's helpful for everyone to know that you are here talkin' your book and will profit if bitcoin goes back up.  There is basically no way for you to be objective.  We know that you will be completely unconvinced by any argument which would would suggest, imply, or prove that they shouldn't go up in price.   

*Disclaimer: I do not own an interest, long or short, in any bitcoins or other shit-coins.  I try to talk people out of them because they are used to finance criminal activity, terrorism, and rogue states.  And I think that they divert capital from legitimate financial markets where it would have been used to finance true economic growth.

Hey LAS,

There's a mod post on the first or second page of this thread asking users to refrain from flaming so that an objective discussion can take place.  I didn't know the consensus was that logical discussion should die.

I did read MMM's blog post about bitcoin.  He seems very good at creating content that will generate heaps of views, which is great because the majority of what is on here is extremely valuable info that should be mandatory reading in high school economics classes.

I know. I saw that.  It looks like in the beginning the mods (A.R.S., I think it was) tried to ban crypto dissent speech in this thread.  When I read it, I took it to mean that people were only allowed to think and discuss happy thoughts about bitcoin and cryptos.  I left this thread alone for a while because of that post.

But in the 19 or so pages that followed in this thread, the mods seem to have given up on banning crypto dissent.  In my opinion this is the correct policy on a forum such as this.   If the arguments in favor of cryptos are so strong, then they should speak for themselves and be able to stand up to withering criticism and should not need to be protected by the mods silencing the critics.

Nevertheless, if the mods come in again and ban crypto dissent in this thread, I will respect it, and I will leave this thread alone for good. 
« Last Edit: February 12, 2018, 09:53:24 AM by L.A.S. »

Surf

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #990 on: February 12, 2018, 09:37:14 AM »

Facepunch.



I just punched myself in the face on accident putting my wetsuit on.  Chipped my incisor a bit. :(   Message received lol.

Surf

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #991 on: February 12, 2018, 09:47:48 AM »
LAS,

It's also worth a bit of perspective that everyone here, and in every finance forum, is "talkin their own book" as you call it, in that they all benefit if new investors join the stock market investing pool.  We do not write off their expertise because of financial self-interest.

There are many possible future scenarios.  I'd like to be set in all of them. 

Several scenarios, with wildly different probabilities:

1) Status quo maintained, cryptos eventually wither to nothingness.  (likely)

2) Status quo maintained, cryptos eventually boom.  (likely)

3) Stock markets falter (very unlikely)

4) USD falters (exceedingly unlikely)

 

shadow

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #992 on: February 12, 2018, 10:09:32 AM »
The anti-crypto members have a few things going for them: (1) foremost they are right, cryptos are basically B.S.

I'll voice the opposite.

Anti-crypto and skeptics are wrong. I predict a future where most of the modern world will be using crypto, whether they are aware of it or not.

TheAnonOne

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #993 on: February 12, 2018, 10:27:58 AM »
I own maybe 20k worth of LITECOIN.

That being said I own 400k worth of VTSAX.


I don't get why people feel so strongly either way, Litecoin is actually being taken as tax payment in Arizona and can be used for transactions at some stores.

LITEPAY already soft-launched with a bigger release in the next few weeks. Given a 1-3% discount I may choose LTC over my rewards card.

I don't expect it to go "To the moon" but it's hardly devoid of value or uses.


EDIT: I don't want this to sound like an advert. It isn't I really don't care at this point what it does price wise. When I re-read this, it came off that way. Apologize for that. Also: LTC is basically just a less pricy BTC, the prices are linked in a soft sort-of-way and it is one of the main "non-scammy" alt-coins
« Last Edit: February 12, 2018, 10:35:20 AM by TheAnonOne »

waltworks

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #994 on: February 12, 2018, 10:40:19 AM »
I own maybe 20k worth of LITECOIN.

I don't expect it to go "To the moon" but it's hardly devoid of value or uses.

I'm curious - why do you have $20k worth of it, if you don't expect it to appreciate in value? I have maybe $500 in actual cash at any given time, plus maybe $10k in a checking account, just because I'm too lazy to keep careful track of the balance and want to make sure I don't bounce any checks. And that's arguably way too much cash, really. I should have more of it invested in something.

So why $20k worth of crypto? Do you expect to pay $20k in AZ taxes in April or something? Do you have massive amounts of litecoin going in/out at any given time and need that balance to make sure you don't get caught short? Something else?

-W

Travis

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #995 on: February 12, 2018, 10:56:40 AM »
My personal interpretation of Mustachianism is to work hard and live frugally such that we will be financially sound across as many possible future scenarios as possible.

You've missed the sustainability and environmental aspects of MMM.  These are fundamental values of MMM.  Cryptos are so incredibly wasteful when it comes to the energy.

Supporting crypto is like driving a gigantic gas guzzling $100k SUV to work 100 miles each way and say it's ok because you can easily afford it.  Also, you leave it running all day while you work.

Hey bender,

Environmental sustainability is the most important issue facing everyone alive today.

Sustainable energy is often the cheapest energy, and thus mining companies are gravitating towards it faster than traditional companies.

It's difficult to use the eco argument as a pro-finance, anti-crypto stand as owning a US stock index means you directly profit off of the countless oil/gas/coal fossil fuel companies that are destroying our planet and lobbying our government for the rights to do so at greater rates.

Personally I do not run any mining rigs, and I am extremely conscious of my own carbon footprint.  If everyone in america behaved in a mustachian way we could be well on our way to reversing co2 emmisions imo.

So we're clear on this point: the consumption of oil/gas/coal that drive the economies of most of the world and have tangible daily benefits is comparable to a speculative barely-used currency with little immediate economic benefit that has been consuming so much energy it would rank in the upper third of nations if it were a nation itself?  Crypto mining has had sketchy profitability lately, and even if Bitcoin went mainstream as a currency like you suggest where does the mining/energy consumption end?  The models suggest mining could take decades with energy consumption increasing exponentially. 
My Journal: http://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/journals/will-i-or-won't-i-a-home-run-or-a-base-hit/

Unlike some other tech companies or skilled-labor industries, we're always hiring.

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thenextguy

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #996 on: February 12, 2018, 12:34:23 PM »
Quote
In a new post today, Microsoft announced their embrace of public blockchains, such as Bitcoin and Ethereum, for use in decentralized identity systems. Initially, the longtime tech giant will support blockchain-based decentralized IDs (DIDs) through the Microsoft Authenticator app.

More: Microsoft To Embrace Decentralized Identity Systems Built On Bitcoin And Other Blockchains

Finallyunderstand

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #997 on: February 12, 2018, 12:54:47 PM »
I own maybe 20k worth of LITECOIN.

I don't expect it to go "To the moon" but it's hardly devoid of value or uses.

I'm curious - why do you have $20k worth of it, if you don't expect it to appreciate in value? I have maybe $500 in actual cash at any given time, plus maybe $10k in a checking account, just because I'm too lazy to keep careful track of the balance and want to make sure I don't bounce any checks. And that's arguably way too much cash, really. I should have more of it invested in something.

So why $20k worth of crypto? Do you expect to pay $20k in AZ taxes in April or something? Do you have massive amounts of litecoin going in/out at any given time and need that balance to make sure you don't get caught short? Something else?

-W

I would venture to guess he didn't start with $20k worth of litecoin but that it grew to that amount.  I did the same thing last summer.  Bought 100 litecoin around $60-70 per coin and then sold out around $210.  It was a venture into something new and pure speculation on my part.  I don't know what to believe will happen in the future.  I made money on crypto and got out.  I didn't get out at the top because litecoin went up to $360 or so and then back to $140 and then up to $305 and then back to $104 and now at $160.  I sold during that rollercoaster somewhere.

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #998 on: February 12, 2018, 02:29:20 PM »
LAS,

It's also worth a bit of perspective that everyone here, and in every finance forum, is "talkin their own book" as you call it, in that they all benefit if new investors join the stock market investing pool.  We do not write off their expertise because of financial self-interest.

There are many possible future scenarios.  I'd like to be set in all of them. 

Several scenarios, with wildly different probabilities:

1) Status quo maintained, cryptos eventually wither to nothingness.  (likely)

2) Status quo maintained, cryptos eventually boom.  (likely)

3) Stock markets falter (very unlikely)

4) USD falters (exceedingly unlikely)

If you allocated 1% of your portfolio to every scheme or technology that could theoretically boom in value you’ll very quickly have a portfolio that is 100% rubbish. Even if your number 2 outcome came about (and I also thoroughly disagree with your ridiculous assessment there of ‘likely’) the chance of ‘cryptos eventually boom’ meaning that the Bitcoin you’re holding today specifically represents that future value is exceedingly unlikely.

Also love your unsubtle accusation that MMM’s bitcoin post was clickbait. Your eyes obviously glazed over when reading the actual content of the article.

bender

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #999 on: February 12, 2018, 03:05:13 PM »
Quote
In a new post today, Microsoft announced their embrace of public blockchains, such as Bitcoin and Ethereum, for use in decentralized identity systems. Initially, the longtime tech giant will support blockchain-based decentralized IDs (DIDs) through the Microsoft Authenticator app.

More: Microsoft To Embrace Decentralized Identity Systems Built On Bitcoin And Other Blockchains

Here's the original article from Microsoft.  I think it's better than the Forbes rehash. 
https://cloudblogs.microsoft.com/enterprisemobility/2018/02/12/decentralized-digital-identities-and-blockchain-the-future-as-we-see-it/

Pretty interesting how Forbes places so much emphasis on Bitcoin, even noting it in the title and several times early in the article.  I can see how crypto currency advocates could use this as positive news, but it's really tangential. 

Basically Microsoft is using blockchain and specifically stealing some of the concepts from Bitcoin and others to do something useful (distributed ID).  Since Bitcoin and most other cryptos are open source it's free to take.  I guess cryptos are good for something after all.  Companies can learn lessons from all the Monopoly money games going on.  It's like a free proof of concept.

Some crypto advocates are enamored with the blockchain technology and believe the currencies somehow derive value from the underlying tech.  I see this as a good example showing the underlying tech may be good, but does not translate any value to the currencies because it is open source.  MS isn't paying any royalties.  They will commercialize the technology and profit from it.