Author Topic: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion  (Read 57811 times)

lifeanon269

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #450 on: October 13, 2017, 06:06:25 AM »
Being MMM, low cost passive index funds are well proven. Applying the same to crypto currencies is what the Crypto 20 (C20) token provides. The fund contains the top 20 coins, is autonomous, and rebalanced weekly.

https://crypto20.com

If you feel that crypto will grow over time then this is a great way to have exposure to the top 20 coins in the market.

I tried getting into Crypto20 last weekend when it first opened the ICO, but it looks like they aren't opening the ICO to US residents/citizens. Likely because of the regulations with how the SEC plans to treat ICOs as securities. So if you're in the US, you're out of luck. I'm hoping that once the ICO goes live that the token start being traded on some other exchanges that aren't as stringent with the KYC laws. In the meantime, you can trade the BTWTY crypto index on the OpenLedger DEX.

Tonyahu

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #451 on: October 13, 2017, 11:36:46 AM »
Just to be clear, I'm a longterm holder of eth as well.

I think that much of the value for those crypto comes from the fact that they are existing and functioning blockchains.

Iota is currently centralized and using a coordinator to springboard the network until it achieves enough network effect where it no longer needs to rely on the coordinator. I'm not convinced that it will be able to effectively remove the coordinator. In addition, there is the controversy surrounding it regarding cryptographic vulnerabilities.

The zksnark zero-proof in zec is planned for use in eth, and I don't see why it won't be adapted into omg.

From an empirical perspective, eth has a more foundational infrastructure, greater developer mindshare, and superior ecosystem over dash.

As for omg, once it goes live, it can integrate into an existing payment network infrastucture and allow various payment networks to transact with each other. Exclusive loyalty or reward programs, in-game currencies, etc, have the potential to be unlocked and transacted as value into a greater network. Also, an advantage omg will have over many of the existing blockchains is that a standardized onboarding cash in/out process is expected to be unveiled before year end; instead of relying on other crypto to get it, people will directly be able to trade for it with cash at supporting establishments (possibly convenience stores). Merchants and consumers will have a reason to use omg (reduced transactional barriers, lower overhead costs, trustless trust standard, etc).

Furthermore, Omise is already a well established company who is growing rapidly. They even won a large "startup company of the year award" recently. In addition, they just landed a deal with Mc. Donalds and are in talks with collaborating with Google for something.

OMG will be huge, I have about 2% of my total crypto portfolio in it and expect great returns over the next few years.

maizeman

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #452 on: October 13, 2017, 11:48:44 AM »
So if I'm reading correctly the elevator pitch is that omg (once it is up and running) should be much easier to transfer into and out of (either from normal currencies, other cryptocurrencies, or game/reward program points) without requiring the use of 3rd party exchanges?
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Tonyahu

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #453 on: October 13, 2017, 11:53:57 AM »
So if I'm reading correctly the elevator pitch is that omg (once it is up and running) should be much easier to transfer into and out of (either from normal currencies, other cryptocurrencies, or game/reward program points) without requiring the use of 3rd party exchanges?

That's part of it, they want to create a decentralized exchange for fiat, more information still needs to be released on how they will do this.

A big part to mention is that this will be the first project built on PLASMA: A love child between Poon (lightning network creator) and Vitalik (Ethereum creator).

YUGE

lifeanon269

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #454 on: October 13, 2017, 12:35:04 PM »
OMG will be huge, I have about 2% of my total crypto portfolio in it and expect great returns over the next few years.

What ethereum wallet are you using to store your OMG tokens?

shadow

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #455 on: October 13, 2017, 02:41:29 PM »
What ethereum wallet are you using to store your OMG tokens?

You can store it to any public address for which you control the private key.

As a security precaution, many people would recommend a hardware wallet such as nano s ledger.



 

advanced

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #456 on: October 18, 2017, 11:19:46 AM »
my current portfolio

AEternity
IOTA
ART
SNGLS
GNT
BNT
ANT


effigy98

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Tonyahu

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #458 on: October 19, 2017, 01:55:19 PM »
my current portfolio

AEternity
IOTA
ART
SNGLS
GNT
BNT
ANT

Interesting, most of your choices are platforms built on Ethereum.

What makes you feel that you can pick the winners (essentially stock picking) out of a blooming new field with thousands of new developments as opposed to just picking Ethereum (essentially holding the index)?

kivex

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OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #459 on: October 19, 2017, 06:29:23 PM »
my current portfolio

AEternity
IOTA
ART
SNGLS
GNT
BNT
ANT

Interesting, most of your choices are platforms built on Ethereum.

What makes you feel that you can pick the winners (essentially stock picking) out of a blooming new field with thousands of new developments as opposed to just picking Ethereum (essentially holding the index)?

Or literally holding an index of the top 20 crypto currencies using C20 - https://crypto20.com

A good overview of C20 with links to YouTube interviews -
https://cryptocurrencyinvesting.news/crypto20-offers-peace-of-mind-with-the-first-crypto-index-fund/
« Last Edit: October 19, 2017, 09:17:37 PM by kivex »

shadow

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #460 on: October 20, 2017, 10:56:00 AM »
my current portfolio

AEternity
IOTA
ART
SNGLS
GNT
BNT
ANT

Interesting, most of your choices are platforms built on Ethereum.

What makes you feel that you can pick the winners (essentially stock picking) out of a blooming new field with thousands of new developments as opposed to just picking Ethereum (essentially holding the index)?

Touching on this, there are alot of shilling, misinformation, and pump-and-dumps in crypto. Projects get intensely hyped and made out to be extremely promising.

Most of these projects are purely whitepaper! They have no product. The idea-makers have no inkling of the pitfalls and challenges of the business world or getting a product to market and adoption. Even if they have code to show for a product, or actually launch a product, it's not a guarantee of success. There is also a very subtle form of scamming, where the ico projects put on the front of actively working on a product and releasing continuous updates, knowing the product will never pick up momentum.

If you are in the cryptoworld, be very conservative where you put your money.   



 

Tonyahu

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #461 on: October 20, 2017, 01:42:40 PM »
my current portfolio

AEternity
IOTA
ART
SNGLS
GNT
BNT
ANT

Interesting, most of your choices are platforms built on Ethereum.

What makes you feel that you can pick the winners (essentially stock picking) out of a blooming new field with thousands of new developments as opposed to just picking Ethereum (essentially holding the index)?

Touching on this, there are alot of shilling, misinformation, and pump-and-dumps in crypto. Projects get intensely hyped and made out to be extremely promising.

Most of these projects are purely whitepaper! They have no product. The idea-makers have no inkling of the pitfalls and challenges of the business world or getting a product to market and adoption. Even if they have code to show for a product, or actually launch a product, it's not a guarantee of success. There is also a very subtle form of scamming, where the ico projects put on the front of actively working on a product and releasing continuous updates, knowing the product will never pick up momentum.

If you are in the cryptoworld, be very conservative where you put your money.

This is why I am a firm believer in Ethereum. It's literally the back-bone of the future landscape of public Blockchain development.

my current portfolio

AEternity
IOTA
ART
SNGLS
GNT
BNT
ANT

Interesting, most of your choices are platforms built on Ethereum.

What makes you feel that you can pick the winners (essentially stock picking) out of a blooming new field with thousands of new developments as opposed to just picking Ethereum (essentially holding the index)?

Or literally holding an index of the top 20 crypto currencies using C20 - https://crypto20.com

A good overview of C20 with links to YouTube interviews -
https://cryptocurrencyinvesting.news/crypto20-offers-peace-of-mind-with-the-first-crypto-index-fund/

Thanks for the input man. Can you please avoid posting that anymore? I don't know your affiliation but mentioning it twice in such a short amount of time is coming off as self seeking. If not, I apologize but I just wanted to get this out in the clear.

kivex

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #462 on: October 20, 2017, 02:41:15 PM »
Thanks for the input man. Can you please avoid posting that anymore? I don't know your affiliation but mentioning it twice in such a short amount of time is coming off as self seeking. If not, I apologize but I just wanted to get this out in the clear.

My apologies. Rereading this thread, my posts do come off as promotion - wasn't my intention. I have no affiliation other than having participated in their ICO. Being MMM, the discussion of which individual crypto currencies will perform well is akin to stock picking, and runs against the norm on this forum which favours index investing. I wanted to let others know that the ability to invest in a crypto index is available.

effigy98

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #463 on: October 20, 2017, 05:47:12 PM »
BTC 6k! Here is a summary for coins I am tracking and today's price.

You can do this yourself in google sheets with this forumula.
=IMPORTXML("http://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/ethereum/","//span[@class='text-large']")

BTC $6,004.00
BCH $329.33
ETC $11.24
ETH $304.72
LTC $60.62
HUSH $1.78
UBQ $1.25
KMD $1.75
XRP $0.21
DASH $289.28
UKG $0.35
ZEC $225.30
GBTC $702.51 (real value $588.34)

surfhb

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #464 on: October 20, 2017, 08:14:10 PM »
Oh man.    This is a millennial train wreck.   

You guys are going to lose your asses.   

waltworks

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #465 on: October 20, 2017, 10:40:00 PM »
The peeps selling the "index of crypto" stuff (and the ones selling mining rigs) will do fine. Levi Strauss, baby...

-W

maizeman

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #466 on: October 20, 2017, 11:40:41 PM »
Oh man.    This is a millennial train wreck.   

You guys are going to lose your asses.   

Leave Snake People* alone!

*Reference: https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/welcome-to-the-forum/enough-with-this-'millenial'-bullshit!/msg1018168/#msg1018168
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powskier

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #467 on: October 21, 2017, 12:57:19 AM »
Oh man.    This is a millennial train wreck.   

You guys are going to lose your asses.   

Many of them have already made more money than all of us Gen Xers combined. Just because you don't understand it, doesn't mean it's necessarily a train wreck.

$100 of BTC 7 years ago is $140 million and then some today.

I'm up about 75% this year with some play money.

Jeferson

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #468 on: October 22, 2017, 11:47:35 AM »
Bitcoin really hitting new highs, currently at 5963.01 dollars per unit, looking for a spot to buy few coins, but the price is too high right now.
Why do people think that my name is Jeferson?
 Read my trading journal

JAYSLOL

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #469 on: October 22, 2017, 06:25:16 PM »
Bitcoin really hitting new highs, currently at 5963.01 dollars per unit, looking for a spot to buy few coins, but the price is too high right now.

Same, I sold a week ago when it hit $7300 CDN, i'll start getting back in when values come back down a little

surfhb

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #470 on: October 22, 2017, 07:27:17 PM »
Crypto currencies are to investing what a brand new GM truck is to Mustachians.   

Isn't this the opposite of what this blog preaches ?     Do any of you ever experienced an extended bear market?   Where you lost hundreds of thousands in equity value in a matter of months? 

 If so, do you feel comfortable with things like bitcoin?     Yes?  How?

I want to hear from the 40+ crowd who have experienced these kinds of events.   

« Last Edit: October 22, 2017, 07:41:51 PM by surfhb »

JAYSLOL

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #471 on: October 22, 2017, 09:37:12 PM »
Crypto currencies are to investing what a brand new GM truck is to Mustachians.   

Isn't this the opposite of what this blog preaches ?     Do any of you ever experienced an extended bear market?   Where you lost hundreds of thousands in equity value in a matter of months? 

 If so, do you feel comfortable with things like bitcoin?     Yes?  How?

I want to hear from the 40+ crowd who have experienced these kinds of events.   

A better analogy might be buying a lotto ticket.  I don't know how anyone can bet large amounts on bitcoin, for me its 1% of my investments

lifeanon269

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #472 on: October 23, 2017, 07:30:08 AM »
Crypto currencies are to investing what a brand new GM truck is to Mustachians.   

Isn't this the opposite of what this blog preaches ?     Do any of you ever experienced an extended bear market?   Where you lost hundreds of thousands in equity value in a matter of months? 

 If so, do you feel comfortable with things like bitcoin?     Yes?  How?

I want to hear from the 40+ crowd who have experienced these kinds of events.   

Can you further explain your analogy? The comparison you make to a GM truck doesn't really make sense at all.

Being "mustachian" is more about living a simple frugal life to achieve a high savings rate and become financially independent than it is about any one particular investment strategy. Even Mr. Money Mustache has invested in high risk/high reward investments.

So I don't think being "mustachian" excludes one from investing in crypto-currencies.

I feel very comfortable investing in bitcoin for numerous reasons.

1) It isn't correlated with any other investment class and it has so far shown itself to be disassociated with most other markets. Therefore it is a good investment option for diversifying against my other index funds.

2) I work in the technology field (Information Security) and I understand the technology of bitcoin deeply. Therefore, investing in a technology that I firmly believe has a bright future makes sense to me. I think it is one of the greatest technological achievements since the Internet. For the first time, we can now create something that is both digital and scarce and can't be copied.

3) I invested in bitcoin early on and therefore my investment has seen tremendous growth over the last several years. Even if bitcoin experiences an extreme drop from today's value or an extensive bear market for the foreseeable future, I will has still made more money had I just invested my money in any other traditional investment option.

4) I am extremely bearish on current traditional financial systems and think that we're in one of the largest debt bubbles ever. Until Bitcoin came along, there was really no way to hedge against something like this as just about ever other asset class is either manipulated and/or intertwined with everything else that makes up our economy. Bitcoin's true value won't be understood until we experience another financial crisis. While I continue to invest in my traditional index funds and max out all my pre-tax investment options, Bitcoin provides me a hedge against those in the event something horrible happens.

5) Bitcoin is extremely liquid and fungible, unlike many retirement investment accounts. This is a great benefit to someone who is planning to retire early, which is something that goes against society's norms. While I plan on retiring in my early 40's, sometimes life can throw a curve ball, so it is nice to have a decent chunk of money that is for retirement, but is available any time of day that can be accessed and used in any way I see fit. There aren't many good investments that I can be long on, while still having the ability to access it at any time without restrictions or penalties.

6) If crypto-currencies are seen as a "millennial" investment, wouldn't it make sense that I invest in something that has a growing number of young investors in the future investing in something that has a positive feedback loop relative to its adoption? If most millennials don't understand why gold is a store of value and yet are fully willing to adopt Bitcoin as such, then it makes sense that Bitcoin would have a stronger future market as those millennials begin choosing where to put their money.

I can go on digging further into why I think Bitcoin is a good investment option, but there are just some of the reasons why I choose to put some of my money in it and why it shouldn't just be seen as some obscure fad.
« Last Edit: October 23, 2017, 07:32:38 AM by lifeanon269 »

talltexan

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #473 on: October 23, 2017, 09:04:00 AM »
Lifeanon269-

Have you purchased a tangible good or service with your bitcoin?

I'd like to know if you've used it for its intended purpose, or if it's only an investment vehicle for you.

lifeanon269

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #474 on: October 23, 2017, 10:15:25 AM »
Lifeanon269-

Have you purchased a tangible good or service with your bitcoin?

I'd like to know if you've used it for its intended purpose, or if it's only an investment vehicle for you.

All my spending money is in Bitcoin (I've stated this in past posts here as well, so I'm not just saying this in response to you). I'd rather have my spending money in Bitcoin as opposed to USD as this allows me to further increase my savings. If my spending money goes up 10% one month, then that allows me to put more into savings than I otherwise would have. Its volatility isn't as painful when it comes to my spending money since 1) I don't spend much each month and 2) my monthly spending is spread out over the course of the month, therefore Bitcoin's price volatility evens out for all my expenditures.

In case you're wondering, I have a Bitcoin debit card that allows me to make purchases using Bitcoin. My money is stored in Bitcoin until the time of the transaction where it is converted to USD without any transaction fee. This is what I referred to above where I said that Bitcoin is extremely liquid. I can have my money in Bitcoin and at any moment, I can spend it. I also do make purchases directly with Bitcoin on a few websites that support it (Amazon purchases through Purse, Overstock, NewEgg, etc).

With that said, I would like to question why the question was posed in the first place. Were you questioning its use as a currency? Its current adoption level matches its current merchant acceptance. That is to say it is very low. The reason why it has been such a good investment hinges solely on the fact that it is such a young market. At the point at which we see its value as currency being realized (ie, merchant acceptance and widespread use), its value as an investment will have diminished. Irregardless of any of this, however, its value as a store of value will always remain since that is mostly dependent upon the soundness and stability of the technology itself.

GuitarStv

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #475 on: October 23, 2017, 11:09:19 AM »
All my spending money is in Bitcoin (I've stated this in past posts here as well, so I'm not just saying this in response to you). I'd rather have my spending money in Bitcoin as opposed to USD as this allows me to further increase my savings.

It certainly provides some protection from making mindless purchases.

talltexan

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #476 on: October 23, 2017, 12:04:42 PM »
Lifeanon269-

Have you purchased a tangible good or service with your bitcoin?

I'd like to know if you've used it for its intended purpose, or if it's only an investment vehicle for you.

All my spending money is in Bitcoin (I've stated this in past posts here as well, so I'm not just saying this in response to you). I'd rather have my spending money in Bitcoin as opposed to USD as this allows me to further increase my savings. If my spending money goes up 10% one month, then that allows me to put more into savings than I otherwise would have. Its volatility isn't as painful when it comes to my spending money since 1) I don't spend much each month and 2) my monthly spending is spread out over the course of the month, therefore Bitcoin's price volatility evens out for all my expenditures.

In case you're wondering, I have a Bitcoin debit card that allows me to make purchases using Bitcoin. My money is stored in Bitcoin until the time of the transaction where it is converted to USD without any transaction fee. This is what I referred to above where I said that Bitcoin is extremely liquid. I can have my money in Bitcoin and at any moment, I can spend it. I also do make purchases directly with Bitcoin on a few websites that support it (Amazon purchases through Purse, Overstock, NewEgg, etc).

With that said, I would like to question why the question was posed in the first place. Were you questioning its use as a currency? Its current adoption level matches its current merchant acceptance. That is to say it is very low. The reason why it has been such a good investment hinges solely on the fact that it is such a young market. At the point at which we see its value as currency being realized (ie, merchant acceptance and widespread use), its value as an investment will have diminished. Irregardless of any of this, however, its value as a store of value will always remain since that is mostly dependent upon the soundness and stability of the technology itself.

Your debit card sounds absolutely amazing! I apologize for being so late to the discussion that I hadn't properly read other posts of yours.

Indeed I am trying to figure out whether Bitcoin is a currency, or if the emphasis on investing through it has transformed it more into a commodity a la gold.

My big concern about websites like overstock is that they still quote the prices in $$ until the very end, then they give you the option to pay via Bitcoin. I'm worried that until we start thinking about prices totally within Bitcoin (and you sound like you've built the infrastructure--personally--to do this), it won't be a currency, but more a medium of exchange will be something more akin to payment processing that credit cards are currently providing, rather than being something like the Euro.

sherr

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #477 on: October 23, 2017, 12:21:26 PM »
Irregardless of any of this, however, its value as a store of value will always remain since that is mostly dependent upon the soundness and stability of the technology itself.

It's quotes like this that make me extremely wary of cryptocurrencies. That's simply untrue. The only "value" that cryptocurrencies have as a store of value is completely and totally dependent on other people being willing to trade goods / services / other currencies for them. Same as anything else. The technology can be completely sound and stable, but if no one wants to buy your bitcoin then it has lost every bit of its value. Will that happen any time soon? I don't know, but "bitcoin has no real value so it's real value is potentially INFINITE" type quotes certainly don't make me want to trade my USD for your bitcoin.


Tonyahu

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #478 on: October 23, 2017, 12:45:30 PM »
Crypto currencies are to investing what a brand new GM truck is to Mustachians.   

Isn't this the opposite of what this blog preaches ?     Do any of you ever experienced an extended bear market?   Where you lost hundreds of thousands in equity value in a matter of months? 

 If so, do you feel comfortable with things like bitcoin?     Yes?  How?

I want to hear from the 40+ crowd who have experienced these kinds of events.   

Can you further explain your analogy? The comparison you make to a GM truck doesn't really make sense at all.

Being "mustachian" is more about living a simple frugal life to achieve a high savings rate and become financially independent than it is about any one particular investment strategy. Even Mr. Money Mustache has invested in high risk/high reward investments.

So I don't think being "mustachian" excludes one from investing in crypto-currencies.

I feel very comfortable investing in bitcoin for numerous reasons.

1) It isn't correlated with any other investment class and it has so far shown itself to be disassociated with most other markets. Therefore it is a good investment option for diversifying against my other index funds.

2) I work in the technology field (Information Security) and I understand the technology of bitcoin deeply. Therefore, investing in a technology that I firmly believe has a bright future makes sense to me. I think it is one of the greatest technological achievements since the Internet. For the first time, we can now create something that is both digital and scarce and can't be copied.

3) I invested in bitcoin early on and therefore my investment has seen tremendous growth over the last several years. Even if bitcoin experiences an extreme drop from today's value or an extensive bear market for the foreseeable future, I will has still made more money had I just invested my money in any other traditional investment option.

4) I am extremely bearish on current traditional financial systems and think that we're in one of the largest debt bubbles ever. Until Bitcoin came along, there was really no way to hedge against something like this as just about ever other asset class is either manipulated and/or intertwined with everything else that makes up our economy. Bitcoin's true value won't be understood until we experience another financial crisis. While I continue to invest in my traditional index funds and max out all my pre-tax investment options, Bitcoin provides me a hedge against those in the event something horrible happens.

5) Bitcoin is extremely liquid and fungible, unlike many retirement investment accounts. This is a great benefit to someone who is planning to retire early, which is something that goes against society's norms. While I plan on retiring in my early 40's, sometimes life can throw a curve ball, so it is nice to have a decent chunk of money that is for retirement, but is available any time of day that can be accessed and used in any way I see fit. There aren't many good investments that I can be long on, while still having the ability to access it at any time without restrictions or penalties.

6) If crypto-currencies are seen as a "millennial" investment, wouldn't it make sense that I invest in something that has a growing number of young investors in the future investing in something that has a positive feedback loop relative to its adoption? If most millennials don't understand why gold is a store of value and yet are fully willing to adopt Bitcoin as such, then it makes sense that Bitcoin would have a stronger future market as those millennials begin choosing where to put their money.

I can go on digging further into why I think Bitcoin is a good investment option, but there are just some of the reasons why I choose to put some of my money in it and why it shouldn't just be seen as some obscure fad.

Very well said, my friend! I am excited to hear a reply from SurfHB.

jmecklenborg

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #479 on: October 23, 2017, 12:59:04 PM »
I disagree that point 3 is of any advantage, and it is more likely a disadvantage.  Buying bitcoin is not an investment in "blockchain", it is rolling the dice with this nebulous thing with minimal practical use called bitcoin.  As I have stated previously, blockchain might prove very useful to traditional banks so far as improving security and reducing the need for expensive IT security staff.  One of my friends from high school is head of security for a company everyone here has heard of.  He's a nutty dude.  Executives don't like those kinds of guys but they are a necessary evil, from their perspective. 

I remember when my dad was put in charge of his company's Y2K effort.  He has no background in computers but was stuck managing a small gang of dungeons & dragons dudes who milked the clock for two years leading up to the anticlimactic event.  He couldn't wait to lay their goofy asses off.  I'd have to ask him but I don't doubt that he had them escorted out of the building before MLK Day, 2000.   


lifeanon269

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #480 on: October 23, 2017, 01:04:10 PM »
Irregardless of any of this, however, its value as a store of value will always remain since that is mostly dependent upon the soundness and stability of the technology itself.

It's quotes like this that make me extremely wary of cryptocurrencies. That's simply untrue. The only "value" that cryptocurrencies have as a store of value is completely and totally dependent on other people being willing to trade goods / services / other currencies for them. Same as anything else. The technology can be completely sound and stable, but if no one wants to buy your bitcoin then it has lost every bit of its value. Will that happen any time soon? I don't know, but "bitcoin has no real value so it's real value is potentially INFINITE" type quotes certainly don't make me want to trade my USD for your bitcoin.

I knew someone was going to respond with a post like this quoting that exact sentence. Allow me to explain further.

I wasn't suggesting that Bitcoin's value is "infinite". The reason why I say its store of value is tied to how sound the technology is because of the fact that those putting their money in it looking for their money to hold value are doing so on the premise that the network will continue to operate as it does today without any problems or downtime.

If the Bitcoin network experiences downtime or failures or was found not to be as secure as it is against any form of attack, then people would not be willing to store their money in it. First and foremost, it is because Bitcoin is such a sturdy protocol that people feel safe storing their money in it. So long as there are people who continue to feel that Bitcoin is safe from a technological perspective, then there will be people who are looking to buy it. Like you said, any asset's value comes from those who are willing to trade it. The longer the Bitcoin network is online and secure, the harder it will be for people to ignore its value as a secure asset.

The argument you make against Bitcoin above is the same "inherent value" argument against bitcoin that is erroneously often made, you just worded it differently. You can claim that Bitcoin has no inherent value, but I beg to differ. Bitcoin's inherent value comes from the fact that it is an extremely secure and un-manipulated currency who's technology is based on sound mathematical cryptography that has been developed over the course of 40 years. The longer the network remains online, the more and more this holds true.

Essentially what you're suggesting is that all the people who today feel that bitcoin is a safe and secure protocol and are willing to put their hard earned cash in it will someday cease to feel it is a safe and secure protocol...and thus its value would plummet. In order for that to happen, then the network would need to experience some type of hiccup or compromise. In that case, the network would've failed and I'd fully expect its value to drop accordingly (because the technology failed). However, should Bitcoin continue to operate soundly as it does today, then I'd expect that more and more people will continue to see that Bitcoin as a protocol does have value. Outside a worldwide clamp down by governments (even then I do expect Bitcoin to resist such a scenario), then I firmly believe Bitcoin's value is directly correlative to the soundness of the technology itself.

For perspective, even if Bitcoin's market capitalization remained constant from here on out (about $100 billion), then its future value in the year ~2140 when all 21 million Bitcoins are mined would still be about $4760. That's a decline of about 18% over the course of about 123 years or about .146% decline annually. Compared to the USD which declines over 3% annually (more so recently), that's a tremendous store of value comparatively for a currency. That means that even just modest growths in the Bitcoin market over the next several decades will continue to yield Bitcoin being a good store of value for one's money.

Also, my above statement was in regards to the fact that this is all true whether or not Bitcoin is ever used as an everyday currency or not. Bitcoin does not need to be used as an everyday currency for people to realize that it still has value because of the security it provides as a store of value.

lifeanon269

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #481 on: October 23, 2017, 01:16:47 PM »
Your debit card sounds absolutely amazing! I apologize for being so late to the discussion that I hadn't properly read other posts of yours.

Indeed I am trying to figure out whether Bitcoin is a currency, or if the emphasis on investing through it has transformed it more into a commodity a la gold.

My big concern about websites like overstock is that they still quote the prices in $$ until the very end, then they give you the option to pay via Bitcoin. I'm worried that until we start thinking about prices totally within Bitcoin (and you sound like you've built the infrastructure--personally--to do this), it won't be a currency, but more a medium of exchange will be something more akin to payment processing that credit cards are currently providing, rather than being something like the Euro.

Until Bitcoin's volatility declines, then I fully expect businesses who transact directly in bitcoin to utilize a more stable asset (USD) for pricing their goods. I don't see this as a good or bad thing, just as something that is to be expected. There are even crypto-currencies that are developed with price-stability in mind to allow for exchanges between currencies to occur based on a pegged value. Until the market grows big enough where the volatility decreases substantially (complete adoption), then I fully expect good prices to be pegged to a more stable currency such as the USD. That wouldn't stop Bitcoin from being used as a currency however, so I don't really see it as a concern.

EDIT: To further clarify, to address the "mental" perspective you mentioned of one's ability to determine the value of Bitcoin relative to the value of any specific good or service, I don't think there needs to be a complete critical mass understanding of it. Even with USD, many people still have a hard time understanding the value of a good or service as valued in USD. That's why we had a TV show called "The Price is Right" that had participants show how accurately they could determine a good's price in USD. Most people have a rough estimate as to the cost of a good in USD and that is good enough to allow it to act as a universal medium of exchange. Other than that rough understanding, we simply pay what the merchant tells us to pay. Sometimes there is even shock that something cost as much as it did (like when we get a check at a restaurant). Once volatility in Bitcoin diminishes to the point where over the course of a year we can maintain a rough sense of how much something costs in Bitcoin, then the personal mental hurdles of using Bitcoin for purchases will be overcome if merchants ever decide to price their goods solely in Bitcoin without an underlying value in USD.

We're a long way of from having to worry about that though.   :)
« Last Edit: October 23, 2017, 02:17:57 PM by lifeanon269 »

effigy98

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #482 on: October 23, 2017, 03:00:38 PM »

1) It isn't correlated with any other investment class and it has so far shown itself to be disassociated with most other markets. Therefore it is a good investment option for diversifying against my other index funds.

This is my favorite feature and one most people just don't get.

Here is a recent analysis of how uncorrelated crypto is vs everything else: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4047264-bitcoins-correlation-financial-assets

Here is a quote from one of my favorite investment books (The Permanent Portfolio: Harry Browne’s Long-Term Investment Strategy” by Craig Rowland and J. M. Lawson).
Invest in volatile uncorrelated assets that cover every economic condition, and you’ll do pretty well with limited downside no matter what happens in the markets.
« Last Edit: October 23, 2017, 03:41:59 PM by effigy98 »

sherr

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #483 on: October 23, 2017, 03:18:47 PM »
Essentially what you're suggesting is that all the people who today feel that bitcoin is a safe and secure protocol and are willing to put their hard earned cash in it will someday cease to feel it is a safe and secure protocol...and thus its value would plummet. In order for that to happen, then the network would need to experience some type of hiccup or compromise [paraphrasing] or there would have to be a worldwide governmental clamp down.

But you're doing it again. Neither of those things are required. All that's required for people to stop feeling safe and secure is for them to stop feeling safe and secure. Again, I don't know that this is the case, but I'm 50-50 on whether the next widespread economic downturn completely crashes bitcoin. If all the speculators "wake up" and realize they need "real money" to buy groceries / pay rent / pay taxes and start trying to sell, then the value of bitcoin will crash to near-nothing. Will there be a sizeable number of people who are willing to keep pouring money into bitcoin in the midst of the next stock market crash and keep the value afloat? Maybe. Will there be a bunch of people who start pouring money into it again afterwards? Maybe. But I don't know that, nor really see a reason they would.

For perspective, even if Bitcoin's market capitalization remained constant from here on out (about $100 billion), then its future value in the year ~2140 when all 21 million Bitcoins are mined would still be about $4760...

Also, my above statement was in regards to the fact that this is all true whether or not Bitcoin is ever used as an everyday currency or not. Bitcoin does not need to be used as an everyday currency for people to realize that it still has value because of the security it provides as a store of value.

But there's no reason whatsoever to assume that the market cap will remain constant or close to constant. It could skyrocket, it could crash to zero. The one and only factor that differentiates these scenarios is people's willingness to continue pouring money into the bitcoin marketplace. It's all pure speculation on future behavior.

I mean, I know I'm being a downer on cryptocurrencies in a crytpcurrency thread. So by all means you do your thing. I will stick to government-backed currencies and investments backed by real appreciating assets.

lifeanon269

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #484 on: October 23, 2017, 05:56:38 PM »
All that's required for people to stop feeling safe and secure is for them to stop feeling safe and secure.

I agree, but people don't just change attitudes about things without some type of forcing. You do realize your statement sounds a little ridiculous, right? Why would someone change their opinion about something unless there was something that caused them to have a change of attitude toward it? In the same way that people's opinions of Bitcoin will favorably change over time given Bitcoin's continued stability, the opposite would also be true. If you agree that people would need to no longer feel that Bitcoin is a safe a secure asset, under what condition would they likely suddenly feel that? I think if you put aside your biases against Bitcoin (you have clear biases when you put "wake up" and "real money" in quotes) and truly answer that question, you'll begin to see how Bitcoin will continue to have a future so long as the technology behind it continues to remain safe and secure.

What makes you feel that the next economic downturn would crash bitcoin? You do realize that the technology came before the speculation correct? The speculation would not have occured had Bitcoin, as a protocol, not shown itself to be a stable and secure network. In fact, the earliest of users of the network weren't speculators, they were visionaries and technologists looking to test the system and get the network up and running and put it through its paces. As the network continued to operate, more and more people saw that it was turning away from being merely an experiment and into something that was truly sound and operational. Therefore, when you make the claim that "Bitcoin will crash to near-nothing", you're suggesting that something would happen to the Bitcoin network that would take it from away from "sound and operational" as it was in its earliest of days when it was indeed worth next to nothing. That means the technology itself would need to fail, which brings me back to my original statement. That's why I ultimately feel that unless there is a true compromise of the network and its secure and sound operation (or something better comes along which is another subject altogether), then Bitcoin will never go to zero in the way that you suggest.

Take gold for example. People always argue how gold has "inherent value" given its uses in industry, electronics, medicine, etc. However, has the market cap for gold ever dropped all the way down to its base market value that only covered its uses for industry, electronics, medicine, etc? If the answer to that is no (which it is), then even during all the economic calamities that gold has withstood as a store of value, it still held value simply because people felt it did, not because of its uses or "inherent value". That means that even during some of the most troubling of economic times, there was still money in gold simply because humans deemed it had some value "just because". The more Bitcoin holds value simply because people feel it does, then it will continue to hold value so long as its technology remains stable enough to justify it.

In other words:

Its the technology that drives its value, not the speculation.

But there's no reason whatsoever to assume that the market cap will remain constant or close to constant. It could skyrocket, it could crash to zero. The one and only factor that differentiates these scenarios is people's willingness to continue pouring money into the bitcoin marketplace. It's all pure speculation on future behavior.

I mean, I know I'm being a downer on cryptocurrencies in a crytpcurrency thread. So by all means you do your thing. I will stick to government-backed currencies and investments backed by real appreciating assets.

I agree, the market cap will likely not remain constant. The point I was making wasn't whether or not the market cap will remain constant. It almost certainly will not. The point I was making was that for Bitcoin to remain a decent store of value long term, very little additional money into the market is required for it to remain a decent store of value. I already addressed above how unlikely it is that Bitcoin will go to zero unless there is a technological mishap. So barring a technical catastrophe, it is more than likely that Bitcoin instead will continue to be a stable store of value given the fact that very little money needs to be infused into the market for it to remain so over the long term. It isn't pure speculation on future market behavior, if anything it is speculation on whether or not the Bitcoin network will remain safe and secure given that fact that its security is what will ultimately drive its adoption rate as has already historically been shown to be true. Given that fact, as someone who has a firm grasp on the technology itself, it will continue to remain a safer investment for me over many of the other options available to me at the moment.

You say that you'll stick with government backed currencies, but all the same critiques you've leveled against Bitcoin can be said of government backed currencies. Fiat currencies are backed by the government, but all that means is that they back them as legal tender under national borders. That doesn't mean that they guarantee their value. That is unless you feel that guaranteeing that they'll be worth less in the future is a valid guarantee. History has shown that citizen faith in any given fiat currency can plummet regardless of whether the government backs its currency.
« Last Edit: October 23, 2017, 06:06:01 PM by lifeanon269 »

shadow

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #485 on: October 23, 2017, 06:46:37 PM »
Even in the cryptoworld, there are different perspectives and disagreements among participants.

I definitely don't think bitcoin is tenable purely as a store-of-value. The original bitcoin and original value came from solving a long-standing dilemma in network communication, the byzantine generals' problem, overcoming the double-spend issue. Blockchain tech enabled a peer-to-peer online cash transactability. It featured properties such as being decentralized, permissionless, global, private, secure, scarce.

If bitcoin loses its use-cases (provably fair gambling, online services, pair-trading, and so on), or loses its network effect, it would not be sustainable as a store-of-value. There might be a minority that buy bitcoin expecting appreciation to come from people acquiring it for a store-of-value, but I expect the majority will not; and when people start to pull out, so will the value.

The other aspect to this store-of-value is that some believe a majority of others will be willing to pay one hundred, one thousand, or more dollars to transact on the network. I think this is not sustainable either and will diminish the network growth.

Ultimately, in such a store-of-value scenario, you are left with the greater fool. No appreciating asset can be upheld on sentiment.

I mean, I know I'm being a downer on cryptocurrencies in a crytpcurrency thread. So by all means you do your thing. I will stick to government-backed currencies and investments backed by real appreciating assets.

Criticisms are welcomed and good for the space. No one should blindly commit or throw their money into something they disagree with or doubt.

Cryptocurrency has evolved significantly beyond the bitcoin space. I believe, fairly soon, we'll see clearly how it can improve the quality of life, that people are willing to buy it to use as such, fueling demand.


 

jeromedawg

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #486 on: October 23, 2017, 06:53:51 PM »
FWIW just came across this article... sorry if this is a repost, nothing that hasn't already been stated, or adding fuel to the fire... I haven't read through the thread much as I haven't garnered much interest in blockchain/crypto (though I probably should just for educational purposes at the very least):
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/10/23/wolf-of-wall-street-warns-raising-money-through-icos-is-the-biggest-scam-ever.html

sherr

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #487 on: October 24, 2017, 07:39:23 AM »
All right, since you're asking I'll answer one more time.

All that's required for people to stop feeling safe and secure is for them to stop feeling safe and secure.

I agree, but people don't just change attitudes about things without some type of forcing. You do realize your statement sounds a little ridiculous, right? Why would someone change their opinion about something unless there was something that caused them to have a change of attitude toward it?

I told you why in the part you snipped out. If people realize they need to pay their bills and they can't do it with bitcoin, they'll start selling. If a large number of people start selling, the market value of a bitcoin plummets. If the market value of a bitcoin plummets, speculators panic sell to try to retain some gains or recoup at least some of their losses.

You seem to be assuming that all people who own bitcoins are perfectly rational beings who only own bitcoins for perfectly rational reasons. History tells us that's never been the case about anything. You don't have to have some sort of technological flaw for people to be people. And for the record the fact that I put "wake up" and "real money" in quotes indicates that I was using those terms tongue-in-cheek. If I hadn't put them in quotes that would be the indication of my "clear bias".

Take gold for example. People always argue how gold has "inherent value" given its uses in industry, electronics, medicine, etc. However, has the market cap for gold ever dropped all the way down to its base market value that only covered its uses for industry, electronics, medicine, etc? If the answer to that is no (which it is), then even during all the economic calamities that gold has withstood as a store of value, it still held value simply because people felt it did, not because of its uses or "inherent value".

I agree that gold is an excellent comparison with bitcoin. The difference is that gold has a multi-thousand year history of being the de-facto international currency / value store, and that basically everyone in the world agrees that gold has value in that regard. Bitcoin is trying to be the new gold, but only a very very few people know it exists or care about it at all. Plus it is trying to unseat an established monopoly (gold) in the non-currency value-store market. Which is why it will be much more vulnerable than gold to speculation, crashes, and reverting back to its "inherent value". I don't own gold either for what it's worth.

You say that you'll stick with government backed currencies, but all the same critiques you've leveled against Bitcoin can be said of government backed currencies. Fiat currencies are backed by the government, but all that means is that they back them as legal tender under national borders. That doesn't mean that they guarantee their value.

I think you need to turn that backwards. I agree that "fiat currencies" are vulnerable to many of the same problems that bitcoin-as-a-currency is vulnerable to. The difference is that for government-backed currencies, you have an entire nation (at least) full of people with a vested interest in ensuring that currency has value. The government wants to ensure it can participate in international trade and feed its people (so the politicians don't all get shot in the revolution). The rich people (with lots of power because they are rich) want to ensure that they stay rich. There are whole organizations and agencies full of people who's whole job is to ensure that the country's economy is growing and the currency has semi-stable value.

Bitcoin has none of those.

You keep on insisting that cryptocurrencies will have some stable value unless there is some type of technological problem. Common sense and a quick glance at cryptocurrency markets tells us that's not true. A bitcoin is only worth what someone is willing to pay you for it. If there are a billion people holding bitcoin, but none are buying, the value is nothing - you cannot sell your bitcoin. If there are 1.5 people selling for every 1 person buying, the value crashes precipitously until it gets low enough that an extra half-person decides to buy. Neither of those situations requires a technological problem, merely an economic or psychological problem are sufficient.

Like I said, I get that this is a crytocurrency thread, so go do your thing. I will not participate, and I'll stop arguing with you about it.
« Last Edit: October 24, 2017, 07:51:47 AM by sherr »

shotgunwilly

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #488 on: October 24, 2017, 08:02:57 AM »

In other words:

Its the technology that drives its value, not the speculation.

Wow, you actually believe this right now?

The exact opposite is true, actually.

I'm for Crypto, and have money in various coins.  But you are lying to yourself if you think blockchain cryptocurrencies prices aren't driven by almost pure speculation at this point.  The majority of people that own Bitcoin are doing it for a ROI.  Period.

And THAT is why this thing COULD come crashing down very fast.  It's propped up on speculation, and could crumble, actually much faster, than the housing and tech markets did.

surfhb

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #489 on: October 24, 2017, 09:13:35 AM »
I'm sure I'll be written off as the tired old man here. I'm 49.   

Was concerns me the most is that most of the under 35 crowd has only know an EXTREME period of market growth their entire investing lives.   Not just extreme but unprecedented!     

Twice I've seen my stash grow to unbelievable levels and lose its value in a matter of a year.   I've seen friends lose homes, jobs, spouses, etc. over these market crashes .   

I suggest you don't speculate a large portion of your net worth.   Believe me



lifeanon269

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #490 on: October 24, 2017, 09:18:29 AM »

In other words:

Its the technology that drives its value, not the speculation.

Wow, you actually believe this right now?

The exact opposite is true, actually.

I'm for Crypto, and have money in various coins.  But you are lying to yourself if you think blockchain cryptocurrencies prices aren't driven by almost pure speculation at this point.  The majority of people that own Bitcoin are doing it for a ROI.  Period.

And THAT is why this thing COULD come crashing down very fast.  It's propped up on speculation, and could crumble, actually much faster, than the housing and tech markets did.

No, I fully believe that the REASON why a lot people are putting their money into Bitcoin is based on a lot of speculation. The reason why someone is putting their money doesn't matter as much (I'll explain why).

You're misconstruing my words though and/or missing the point I'm making.

The price of Bitcoin is strictly tied to the demand for it given its limited supply. The more demand, the higher the price for it in the market place. Therefore, its price is almost a self-fulling prophecy. The more people that demand it, the higher the price will go. The higher the price will go, the more people will demand it. It is a positive feedback loop that will drive its adoption toward critical mass. All mass appeal technology adoptions follow an S-curve. The same is true for Bitcoin, so at some point adoption will level off and because of this its price will level off as well. This means its price is strictly based on its adoption level and rate, regardless of the reason why the market is putting their money in it.

However, when I say that it is the technology that drives its value is because of the fact that underlying all those market forces is technology. If Bitcoin doesn't provide a safe place for people to place their money, if Bitcoin wasn't based on sound mathematics that is built on open-source software and is run on a decentralized network, then people wouldn't be putting their money into Bitcoin in the first place. If one day, Bitcoin ceases being a safe and secure protocol, then the whole system will fail and people will rush to get whatever money they can out of it. However, the opposite is also true. If Bitcoin continues to be a safe and secure protocol, then people will continue to put their money in it and the above positive feedback loop will continue to occur.

It is the technology that is ultimately driving this thing. Tell me, if the technology of Bitcoin isn't what it is, would people be putting their money in it? No, they wouldn't. That's what underpins this whole thing.

Keep in mind I am strictly talking about Bitcoin, not other cryptos or ICOs. ICOs are a different beast all together as they're not based on the same principles as Bitcoin and usually have failing companies behind them and/or worse are just simply fraud. The driving force behind those will at some point become apparent that they were fraudulent and therefore there will be many that will go to a value of $0. That won't effect Bitcoin's price much however since the money is usually moved in and out of Bitcoin pretty quickly to invest in these and therefore they don't impact Bitcoin's overall demand and price much long term.
« Last Edit: October 24, 2017, 09:20:24 AM by lifeanon269 »

GuitarStv

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #491 on: October 24, 2017, 09:20:06 AM »
I'm sure I'll be written off as the tired old man here. I'm 49.   

Was concerns me the most is that most of the under 35 crowd has only know an EXTREME period of market growth their entire investing lives.   Not just extreme but unprecedented!     

Twice I've seen my stash grow to unbelievable levels and lose its value in a matter of a year.   I've seen friends lose homes, jobs, spouses, etc. over these market crashes .   

I suggest you don't speculate a large portion of your net worth.   Believe me


Kinda a sweeping statement.  I'm 36, and I had around 100 grand invested in 2008.

lifeanon269

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #492 on: October 24, 2017, 09:31:39 AM »
I'm sure I'll be written off as the tired old man here. I'm 49.   

Was concerns me the most is that most of the under 35 crowd has only know an EXTREME period of market growth their entire investing lives.   Not just extreme but unprecedented!     

Twice I've seen my stash grow to unbelievable levels and lose its value in a matter of a year.   I've seen friends lose homes, jobs, spouses, etc. over these market crashes .   

I suggest you don't speculate a large portion of your net worth.   Believe me

This would also go against just about every other sentiment I've heard regarding the 35 and younger crowd regarding their feelings on the stock market. You make it sound like all they've experienced in their lives are complete unprecedented abundance. The opposite couldn't be further from the truth. Most of them actually were put right into the market at the time of one of the worst recessions and the growing sentiment among that crowd is that they're very distrusting of the stock market. From the surveys I've seen from the 35 and younger crowd is that they have an extreme dislike for Wall Street because of that. Any one who is too young to have experienced the latest recession and its aftermath is likely too young to have fully enjoyed the abundant upswing after as well, so I think your viewpoint is a little skewed.

shadow

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #493 on: October 24, 2017, 09:34:07 AM »
I'm sure I'll be written off as the tired old man here. I'm 49.   

Was concerns me the most is that most of the under 35 crowd has only know an EXTREME period of market growth their entire investing lives.   Not just extreme but unprecedented!     

Twice I've seen my stash grow to unbelievable levels and lose its value in a matter of a year.   I've seen friends lose homes, jobs, spouses, etc. over these market crashes .   

I suggest you don't speculate a large portion of your net worth.   Believe me


Kinda a sweeping statement.  I'm 36, and I had around 100 grand invested in 2008.

We also know people that lost very large sums during the internet bubble. And we're fully aware of the (non-crypto) market cycles; many people are expecting an upcoming big correction.

For crypto, no one should be dipping into 401k, real estate, or other traditionals investments. If they want to do five figures or whatever amount, it should come from something like their sizable emergency fund or rainy day cash. 
« Last Edit: October 24, 2017, 09:36:04 AM by shadow »

shadow

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #494 on: October 24, 2017, 09:55:07 AM »
I think you need to turn that backwards. I agree that "fiat currencies" are vulnerable to many of the same problems that bitcoin-as-a-currency is vulnerable to. The difference is that for government-backed currencies, you have an entire nation (at least) full of people with a vested interest in ensuring that currency has value. The government wants to ensure it can participate in international trade and feed its people (so the politicians don't all get shot in the revolution). The rich people (with lots of power because they are rich) want to ensure that they stay rich. There are whole organizations and agencies full of people who's whole job is to ensure that the country's economy is growing and the currency has semi-stable value.

Bitcoin has none of those.

You keep on insisting that cryptocurrencies will have some stable value unless there is some type of technological problem. Common sense and a quick glance at cryptocurrency markets tells us that's not true. A bitcoin is only worth what someone is willing to pay you for it. If there are a billion people holding bitcoin, but none are buying, the value is nothing - you cannot sell your bitcoin. If there are 1.5 people selling for every 1 person buying, the value crashes precipitously until it gets low enough that an extra half-person decides to buy. Neither of those situations requires a technological problem, merely an economic or psychological problem are sufficient.


Cryptocurrency represents a new technology. A technology that encompasses and redefines the meaning of currency and value. It allows something like cash or data to be virtually represented and globally transmitted, permissionless and censor-free, with near-instantaneous speeds. It is tampered proof and allows for new use-cases of nonrepudiation in the business world.

Cryptocurrency will become a part of and evolve the current financial system and other systems or supersede them.


runbikerun

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #495 on: October 24, 2017, 11:26:08 AM »
"All mass appeal technology adoptions follow an S-curve."

All mass appeal technology adoptions involve a drastic reduction in price as the technology is adopted. They would be utter failures otherwise.

lifeanon269

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #496 on: October 24, 2017, 11:49:46 AM »
"All mass appeal technology adoptions follow an S-curve."

All mass appeal technology adoptions involve a drastic reduction in price as the technology is adopted. They would be utter failures otherwise.

That's true of the technology is a mass-produced good with no scarcity that can achieve production improvements over time. That's not true for a limited scarce asset that achieves critical mass adoption.

The adoption S-curve and the price of said technology are two different functions.

lifeanon269

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #497 on: October 24, 2017, 12:16:20 PM »
If there are a billion people holding bitcoin, but none are buying, the value is nothing - you cannot sell your bitcoin. If there are 1.5 people selling for every 1 person buying, the value crashes precipitously until it gets low enough that an extra half-person decides to buy. Neither of those situations requires a technological problem, merely an economic or psychological problem are sufficient.

Your scenarios are only half of it though. If a billion people own Bitcoin and no one is selling, that means that everyone values the Bitcoin that they own way above what anyone is able to pay for it. In other words, they'd be priceless. That would never happen because you're assuming that no one would ever put a price on the Bitcoin they own. Everyone always has a price. Therefore, if a billion people own Bitcoin, there will always be Bitcoin for sale. Everyone will have different prices for what they're willing to part with their Bitcoin for, but you can be sure that there will always be Bitcoin for sale if a billion people own some. That's simply how free and open markets work, of which Bitcoin is one of the most free and open markets out there.

The other side of the coin is also true. The problem with saying that psychologically if everyone is selling and no one is buying is that would mean that suddenly no one values Bitcoin at all for any value. For that to happen, it would need to experience a technical failure or perhaps another currency came along that supplanted it. If it doesn't experience a technical failure, then there will always be buyers just as their are today that are willing to purchase it at some price based on the fact that the decentralized network itself has value. I'm not saying that the price of it can never go down. There will certainly be ebbs and flows. I'm simply saying that the longer that Bitcoin is around and operational, the more and more people will find it harder to ignore the fact that it is one of the only computer networks with an up time and security reputation as good as it is that is capable of facilitating financial transaction in our economy in and open and decentralized way. I'll say it again, make no mistake, the success or failure of the technology of Bitcoin will drive the market, not the speculation.

arebelspy

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #498 on: October 24, 2017, 12:26:48 PM »
If there are a billion people holding bitcoin, but none are buying, the value is nothing - you cannot sell your bitcoin. If there are 1.5 people selling for every 1 person buying, the value crashes precipitously until it gets low enough that an extra half-person decides to buy. Neither of those situations requires a technological problem, merely an economic or psychological problem are sufficient.

Your scenarios are only half of it though. If a billion people own Bitcoin and no one is selling, that means that everyone values the Bitcoin that they own way above what anyone is able to pay for it.

Sherr didn't say a billion people owning and no one selling, Sherr said no one buying. That's a crucial difference. You're right that everyone values their bitcoin above what people are willing to pay in that scenario, and that value is (some amount of money -- e.g. 0.01 for lots of bitcoins) and no buyers are willing to pay any amount of money.

Quote
In other words, they'd be priceless.

Not priceless, worthless.

Quote
That would never happen because you're assuming that no one would ever put a price on the Bitcoin they own. Everyone always has a price. Therefore, if a billion people own Bitcoin, there will always be Bitcoin for sale.

Right. There will be some for sale in this scenario. Lots of it, in fact. With no one buying.

Just wanted to clarify, because you seemed to understand the scenario as "it's at value $x, but no one will sell below $x, and no one will buy at $x, so the price is flat and no one can sell, because they won't reduce their price" but in this case, x = 0, and they can't reduce their price.
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waltworks

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #499 on: October 24, 2017, 12:49:40 PM »
Indeed, price/demand doesn't work that way. If you have no buyers, and even one person *needs* to sell, then the value of the item is zero,  no matter how much all the current owners paid. Obviously that isn't the case but anytime you have more sellers than buyers, the price of the item will drop (though with some things like houses it may take a while and transaction volume will drop instead until enough sellers become desperate and capitulate).

Bitcoin has plenty of buyers right now. So did many things in the past that are today worth nothing.

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