Author Topic: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion  (Read 57714 times)

maizeman

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #400 on: October 02, 2017, 03:16:07 PM »
If you are based in the USA, you are either not "getting in on the ground floor" or the companies you are investing in through ICOs are going to end up in big trouble with the SEC. At best, companies in the USA are able to offer kickstarter-like ICOs where you are prepaying for a product that may exist in the future, potentially at a discount to its ultimate market price.

To understand the difference between these two transactions, ask anyone who helped kickstart the Oculus Rift with $2.4M in funding what their share of the profit was when Lucky Palmer went on to sell the company to facebook for a sweet $2.3B less than two years later (1000x return in two years).

Outside the USA you could indeed be getting in on the ground floor with various business ventures with something like an equity stake, but keep in mind that many VCs and Angel investors end up losing money, even the ones that make money expect to lose money on between 9/10 and 19/20ths of their investments, and that's after careful review of business plans and assessing the qualifications and personal qualities of the founders. As long as you really are prepared for a total loss though... here's hoping you shoot the moon!
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Jeferson

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #401 on: October 02, 2017, 03:19:04 PM »
I see that not many money mustache folkes support and believe in these digital coins. I am, however of an opposite opinion and I believe that they have their place in the twenty-first century. I don't see much of a use for Bitcoin, because the fees that are associated with Bitcoin transactions are quite extensive, plus the process time isn't exactly great. Saying that, Bitcoin's only purpose is only to transfer money from one individual to another, nothing else. Other cryptocurrencies, such as Ethereum has also other usages, such as the dapps. You can check this crypto guide, if you are not sure how to determine the potential of a cryptocurrency. But still, if you don't think they have future, even after you read smth about them, there is no point for you to invest in them.
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mcampbell

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #402 on: October 02, 2017, 03:23:11 PM »
If you are based in the USA, you are either not "getting in on the ground floor" or the companies you are investing in through ICOs are going to end up in big trouble with the SEC. At best, companies in the USA are able to offer kickstarter-like ICOs where you are prepaying for a product that may exist in the future, potentially at a discount to its ultimate market price.

To understand the difference between these two transactions, ask anyone who helped kickstart the Oculus Rift with $2.4M in funding what their share of the profit was when Lucky Palmer went on to sell the company to facebook for a sweet $2.3B less than two years later (1000x return in two years).

Outside the USA you could indeed be getting in on the ground floor with various business ventures with something like an equity stake, but keep in mind that many VCs and Angel investors end up losing money, even the ones that make money expect to lose money on between 9/10 and 19/20ths of their investments, and that's after careful review of business plans and assessing the qualifications and personal qualities of the founders. As long as you really are prepared for a total loss though... here's hoping you shoot the moon!

Theoretically companies outside USA could offer equity via an ICO, I have yet to see any that have done this. Cause they haven’t needed to cause people are essentially giving them free Kickstarter type money, hoping the tokens will raise in value. It’s illegal in USA to even have on your website that the tokens can raise in value or they are any kind of “investment”.


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effigy98

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #403 on: October 02, 2017, 04:24:44 PM »
Fair points ICO's should not be considered an "investment", but they have potential for making you real money. I'm not sure how a kickstarter does that.

Bicycle_B

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #404 on: October 03, 2017, 12:14:36 AM »
One thing I've noticed when discussing cryptocurrencies elsewhere is that actual discussion of things that can materially effect the future of cryptocurrency is almost totally absent among crypto boosters.

For example: by the end of 2018, it's quite likely that the single biggest cryptocurrency on earth will be one developed by a consortium of six banks for the purposes of simplifying cross-border transfers. This project was announced about two months ago, and doesn't make use of any existing cryptocurrencies; instead it uses blockchain technology to simply make the existing system easier. If you think crypto has a future beyond fringe uses, this should be genuinely earth-shattering: we've just been shown that existing cryptocurrencies will be irrelevant to perhaps 99.9% of the world's money market activity. And yet, the day this appeared in the Financial Times, bitcoin's price simply kept going up. Even here, I don't believe there's been a single mention of it. At the very least, crypto is limited to interpersonal transactions that can't be done using existing currencies: at the most, even that is potentially under threat as it's now clear that banks can build their own systems for these purposes. And yet there's nothing; no acknowledgement of what this means, no acknowledgement that it's even happening.

Informative and thought-provoking comment; thanks for posting.

maizeman

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #405 on: October 03, 2017, 02:31:17 AM »
Fair points ICO's should not be considered an "investment", but they have potential for making you real money. I'm not sure how a kickstarter does that.

How do you make real money pre-purchasing a product at a discount? You resell your product to someone who is willing to pay more for it than you were. People actually did this with Oculus Rift pre-orders and some of them doubled their money.

Cryptocurrency-like tokens makes the process of buying and reselling a lot lower friction, which reduces transaction costs, but produces greater elasticity of supply, which means you're unlikely to see the biggest mismatches between supply and demand which is when people make the most money on reselling products.

TL;DR I'm not arguing there isn't potential to make money on ICOs, but they're not set up to give "invest in a successful silicon valley startup" scale returns, even if the underlying company turns out to be the next amazon/google. 
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flyersman

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #406 on: October 03, 2017, 08:03:18 AM »
What are everyones thoughts on Crypto Index's?

https://crypto20.com/en/

I just signed up for that one and also read an article that a few Google Employees started one as well.

runbikerun

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #407 on: October 03, 2017, 11:02:14 AM »
My personal opinion is that a crypto index fund is a very bad idea. The risks involved in investing in Bitcoin are almost identical to the risks involved in investing in Ethereum, or Ripple, or Monero - they all have wildly volatile price swings, they're all more or less completely unusable as actual currency, and they're all effectively in the same mode characterised by Robert Shipper as indicative of a bubble. Building an index fund does nothing to negate those risks, which are vastly bigger than the risks specific to individual altcoins.

Further to that, an index fund runs the risk of building false confidence. Someone who invests in a crypto index fund may well think they're properly diversified, but they're still entirely exposed to the vicissitudes of what remains a very immature industry.

lifeanon269

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #408 on: October 03, 2017, 12:54:02 PM »
My personal opinion is that a crypto index fund is a very bad idea.

Further to that, an index fund runs the risk of building false confidence. Someone who invests in a crypto index fund may well think they're properly diversified, but they're still entirely exposed to the vicissitudes of what remains a very immature industry.

So your stance is essentially that the crypto-currency industry as a whole does not have any worthwhile future at all? Wow, that's quite the bearish stance. Even some of the most bearish of bears on crypto-currencies yield to the fact that crypto-currencies in general are here to stay.

runbikerun

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #409 on: October 03, 2017, 01:30:56 PM »
My personal opinion is that a crypto index fund is a very bad idea.

Further to that, an index fund runs the risk of building false confidence. Someone who invests in a crypto index fund may well think they're properly diversified, but they're still entirely exposed to the vicissitudes of what remains a very immature industry.

So your stance is essentially that the crypto-currency industry as a whole does not have any worthwhile future at all? Wow, that's quite the bearish stance. Even some of the most bearish of bears on crypto-currencies yield to the fact that crypto-currencies in general are here to stay.

My personal opinion is that the cryptocurrency industry as it's currently comprised is in a spectacular bubble phase. There may be cryptocurrencies in the future (although it's instructive to note that perhaps 99% of the population of the US have never once used cryptocurrency, and perhaps 99% of the remainder haven't used it for anything except speculative investment or illegal activity), but there's no reason to assume that what's currently popular will be what turns out to be any use whatsoever.

There's no day-to-day use case for crypto as it stands, and ten years in it doesn't look as though there ever will be. There's nothing stopping organisations which like blockchain technology from simply using that without reference to existing cryptocurrency. A gigantic chunk of the money that's currently in cryptocurrency is only there because of the promise of massive gains: if we believe the market will crash (and I have very little doubt that it will), we have no basis for trying to figure out what cryptocurrencies will be worth when the dust settles. Nothing. Bitcoin could fall to a dollar; Ethereum could fall to a cent. With that kind of uncertainty,  putting money in a crypto index is close to pointless.

lifeanon269

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #410 on: October 03, 2017, 02:23:27 PM »
My personal opinion is that the cryptocurrency industry as it's currently comprised is in a spectacular bubble phase. There may be cryptocurrencies in the future (although it's instructive to note that perhaps 99% of the population of the US have never once used cryptocurrency, and perhaps 99% of the remainder haven't used it for anything except speculative investment or illegal activity), but there's no reason to assume that what's currently popular will be what turns out to be any use whatsoever.

There's no day-to-day use case for crypto as it stands, and ten years in it doesn't look as though there ever will be. There's nothing stopping organisations which like blockchain technology from simply using that without reference to existing cryptocurrency. A gigantic chunk of the money that's currently in cryptocurrency is only there because of the promise of massive gains: if we believe the market will crash (and I have very little doubt that it will), we have no basis for trying to figure out what cryptocurrencies will be worth when the dust settles. Nothing. Bitcoin could fall to a dollar; Ethereum could fall to a cent. With that kind of uncertainty,  putting money in a crypto index is close to pointless.

It is clear from what you've posted you have your biases and misunderstands of the technology and how it works. The blatant bogus statistics that you spout out are ridiculous and for someone who denounces speculation, you sure are doing an awful lot of it yourself.

Also, I don't think you understand how the crypto indexes work (such as BTWTY and Crypto20). They reallocate themselves to the top twenty crypto-currencies every month or so. So unless the crypto-currency market completely dries up (extremely unlikely), then a crypto-index fund has a lot of value. Plus, unlike mutual funds today, they're low maintenance with non-existent fees (driven by programming) and can't be manipulated and you don't have to worry whether or not your institution is gambling your money away behind the seasons. This is the power that mathematics, openness, and programmable money will bring to the financial industry.

waltworks

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #411 on: October 03, 2017, 03:00:30 PM »
One of the things I find odd about the crypto currency folks is how emotional they are about it (not you Maizeman!)

I own lots of stuff - stocks, bonds, a couple houses, many big fancy tools, etc. All of those things have some intrinsic value to varying degrees.

When I want to sell or buy something, I could care less what I use to make that transaction as long as it's easy, relatively secure, and that the currency is stable in value and accepted pretty much everywhere. I have no interest in whether or not that's dollars, bitcoins, dirty socks, you name it. I'm agnostic on the specific currency as long as it has those basic attributes.

As of right now, none of that applies, and the "success" of crypto looks more to me like failure, since none of them have managed to become commonly used or even stable in value. I have no interest in buying something that has no use and is only transacted with itself (I don't go out and buy a bunch of dollars to stick under my bed either, and those at least are easy to use for buying stuff I actually want).

So an index fund to me seems more like the cherry on top of a speculation sundae than evidence that the markets are "mature" or that you can "invest" in the technology as a whole by buying such a fund.

-W

runbikerun

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #412 on: October 03, 2017, 03:23:55 PM »
My personal opinion is that the cryptocurrency industry as it's currently comprised is in a spectacular bubble phase. There may be cryptocurrencies in the future (although it's instructive to note that perhaps 99% of the population of the US have never once used cryptocurrency, and perhaps 99% of the remainder haven't used it for anything except speculative investment or illegal activity), but there's no reason to assume that what's currently popular will be what turns out to be any use whatsoever.

There's no day-to-day use case for crypto as it stands, and ten years in it doesn't look as though there ever will be. There's nothing stopping organisations which like blockchain technology from simply using that without reference to existing cryptocurrency. A gigantic chunk of the money that's currently in cryptocurrency is only there because of the promise of massive gains: if we believe the market will crash (and I have very little doubt that it will), we have no basis for trying to figure out what cryptocurrencies will be worth when the dust settles. Nothing. Bitcoin could fall to a dollar; Ethereum could fall to a cent. With that kind of uncertainty,  putting money in a crypto index is close to pointless.

It is clear from what you've posted you have your biases and misunderstands of the technology and how it works. The blatant bogus statistics that you spout out are ridiculous and for someone who denounces speculation, you sure are doing an awful lot of it yourself.

Also, I don't think you understand how the crypto indexes work (such as BTWTY and Crypto20). They reallocate themselves to the top twenty crypto-currencies every month or so. So unless the crypto-currency market completely dries up (extremely unlikely), then a crypto-index fund has a lot of value. Plus, unlike mutual funds today, they're low maintenance with non-existent fees (driven by programming) and can't be manipulated and you don't have to worry whether or not your institution is gambling your money away behind the seasons. This is the power that mathematics, openness, and programmable money will bring to the financial industry.

What's with the furiously emotional response?

You asked about my position, and I explained it. I specifically avoided discussing the specifics of the technology, because the reasons I believe cryptocurrencies will collapse have nothing to do with the technology itself.

Regarding the rebalancing: I don't think you've read what I've written. I argued that indexing cryptocurrencies is futile, because they're all exposed to the same major risks, and explained that I expect to see a severe crypto crash. I do expect to see a drastic shrinkage in the crypto market, so monthly rebalancing and near-zero fees make no difference. Why would I mention monthly rebalancing when discussing a fund I fully expect will lose perhaps 90% of its value? If I have absolutely no faith in the underlying asset class, then it doesn't matter how the index fund operates.

On the subject of my numbers: yes, I guessed, because real figures are hard to come by. That said, though, I'd be pretty confident that less than three million Americans have actually possessed cryptocurrency. And I'd be outright astonished if thirty thousand Americans have managed to actually pay for a legal good or service with crypto.

shotgunwilly

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #413 on: October 03, 2017, 04:38:48 PM »
One of the things I find odd about the crypto currency folks is how emotional they are about it (not you Maizeman!)

I own lots of stuff - stocks, bonds, a couple houses, many big fancy tools, etc. All of those things have some intrinsic value to varying degrees.

When I want to sell or buy something, I could care less what I use to make that transaction as long as it's easy, relatively secure, and that the currency is stable in value and accepted pretty much everywhere. I have no interest in whether or not that's dollars, bitcoins, dirty socks, you name it. I'm agnostic on the specific currency as long as it has those basic attributes.

As of right now, none of that applies, and the "success" of crypto looks more to me like failure, since none of them have managed to become commonly used or even stable in value. I have no interest in buying something that has no use and is only transacted with itself (I don't go out and buy a bunch of dollars to stick under my bed either, and those at least are easy to use for buying stuff I actually want).

So an index fund to me seems more like the cherry on top of a speculation sundae than evidence that the markets are "mature" or that you can "invest" in the technology as a whole by buying such a fund.

-W

Your posts, and many others here crying that cryptocurrencies are useless because "you can't buy shit or use it to transact in an efficient way", make it blatantly clear that you have a very narrow minded grasp on how blockchain can be used.  No, Bitcoin is not widely used for transferring money, and buying or selling things.  Yes, it has some issues that are keeping it from being a currency.  But there are extremely exciting use cases for blockhain, and therefor a token that runs the chain.  So much that it will change industries.  And when you have a blockchain, you have a token, or coin, or "cryptocurrency" (which is what most people are using as the term for these tokens) that is used for the protocol to maintain decentralization.  And they can grow in value as a blockchain is used or adopted.

Right now, there is a speculative bubble in all of these cryptocurrencies as a whole. (This can be seen when comparing value derived from actual use vs the value the coins are listed at today due to speculation.) MANY will fail.  Lot's of money will be made and lost, and new companies and blockchains will be created for different use cases.  Many more will fail, and some will become successful.  This doesn't mean that "cryptocurrencies" as a whole are useless and will be a failure, any more than saying all internet companies were a failure because of the dot com bubble.

I believe you are confusing "cryptocurrency" with a blockchain token meant to be used as an actual currency, which very few are.  Ethereum, for example, runs on a token called Ether.  It was never designed to be used as a currency.  Yet it get's listed under the term "cryptocurrency."  I think as the market matures it will develop better distinguishing terms for various coins. (Maybe?)

lifeanon269

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #414 on: October 03, 2017, 04:54:53 PM »
What's with the furiously emotional response?

You asked about my position, and I explained it. I specifically avoided discussing the specifics of the technology, because the reasons I believe cryptocurrencies will collapse have nothing to do with the technology itself.

Regarding the rebalancing: I don't think you've read what I've written. I argued that indexing cryptocurrencies is futile, because they're all exposed to the same major risks, and explained that I expect to see a severe crypto crash. I do expect to see a drastic shrinkage in the crypto market, so monthly rebalancing and near-zero fees make no difference. Why would I mention monthly rebalancing when discussing a fund I fully expect will lose perhaps 90% of its value? If I have absolutely no faith in the underlying asset class, then it doesn't matter how the index fund operates.

On the subject of my numbers: yes, I guessed, because real figures are hard to come by. That said, though, I'd be pretty confident that less than three million Americans have actually possessed cryptocurrency. And I'd be outright astonished if thirty thousand Americans have managed to actually pay for a legal good or service with crypto.

What was it about my post that was "furiously emotional"? I don't think I posted anything or wrote any sentence that exuded any emotion at all, in fact. Was there something specific about my post that led you to believe it was furiously emotional?

I did read what you wrote and to be honest I didn't really see much of any specifics other than your opinion on the matter...

Quote
-"If there are people who think Bitcoin's price shouldn't necessarily bear any relation to market share, we're in an even bigger and more ridiculous bubble than I thought."
-"The risks involved in investing in Bitcoin are almost identical to the risks involved in investing in Ethereum, or Ripple, or Monero"
-"they all have wildly volatile price swings, they're all more or less completely unusable as actual currency, and they're all effectively in the same mode characterised by Robert Shipper as indicative of a bubble."
-"Building an index fund does nothing to negate those risks, which are vastly bigger than the risks specific to individual altcoins."
-"My personal opinion is that the cryptocurrency industry as it's currently comprised is in a spectacular bubble phase."
-"There's no day-to-day use case for crypto as it stands, and ten years in it doesn't look as though there ever will be."
-"Why would I mention monthly rebalancing when discussing a fund I fully expect will lose perhaps 90% of its value"
-"If I have absolutely no faith in the underlying asset class, then it doesn't matter how the index fund operates."
-"Bitcoin could fall to a dollar; Ethereum could fall to a cent. With that kind of uncertainty,  putting money in a crypto index is close to pointless."
-"My personal opinion is that a crypto index fund is a very bad idea."
-"Someone who invests in a crypto index fund may well think they're properly diversified, but they're still entirely exposed to the vicissitudes of what remains a very immature industry."
-"That said, though, I'd be pretty confident that less than three million Americans have actually possessed cryptocurrency."
-"And I'd be outright astonished if thirty thousand Americans have managed to actually pay for a legal good or service with crypto."

These are all the things from the last several posts of yours and most of it is either just speculative itself, misinformed and opinionated, or just outright false.

Investing in a crypto index fund allows an individual to diversify among crypto-currencies as a whole. It is no different than someone who feels that technology companies will do well, but rather than investing in specific companies, they invest in a fund that diversifies among the largest tech companies. You don't invest in a fund like that unless you're already comfortable investing in the underlying market itself. The same goes for a crypto index fund. Clearly, for someone like you who doesn't think crypto-currencies will be around in 10 years, then its not a fund targeted toward an individual like yourself. But, to say that they're a bad idea when they're clearly designed for individuals comfortable with the idea of crypto-currencies fails to understand the benefit they provide. They're for the individuals who feel that crypto-currencies have a place in the world, but aren't comfortable picking a winner just yet. If a particular crypto-currency fails and loses market cap, then it will fall out of the index fund and another currency will take its place. Overall, however, if one feels that the overall market will continue to grow (so far it has), then the index fund will as well.

I don't mind debating crypto-currencies and one look back at my previous posts throughout this threat and others regarding crypto-currencies will show that I enjoy a good debate and will always keep things cordial and free from personal attacks. However, looking at your previous quotes above, it is difficult to have an adequate debate regarding a topic when one side fails to talk about anything specific or outright uses false or exaggerated information.

lifeanon269

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #415 on: October 03, 2017, 05:09:39 PM »
One thing that I think many don't realize about crypto-currencies is the boom in innovation that is going to take place on the internet because of them. Previously, inventing new protocols and internet technologies involved the classic "chicken or the egg" problem. Inventing a new protocol typically depends upon its inherently widespread use among users. However, without its widespread use, it won't be adopted by users. Crypto-currencies change this. It monetizes the protocols themselves. This will allow for a ton of innovation over the next decade or so that I don't think a lot of people realize. Take for example SMTP. It is the protocol that email rides over and it is completely out of date. Yet, even though it is very outdated and lacks any sort of security at all, it is still widely used simply because nothing can supplant its widespread use.

Monetizing the protocols (which crypto-currencies allow for) allows for individuals to become invested in the protocols themselves and thus receive economic gains when the protocol sees widespread use and by becoming invested in these protocols, they also become users of the protocol. This solves the "chicken or the egg" problem. All the protocols in use on the internet today, despite the fact that brilliant minds poured into them, weren't monetized. DNS, SMTP, TCP, HTTP, etc. No one received economic benefit directly from those protocols even though they've completely revolutionized our way of life. Protocol innovation has now stagnated because of this and I believe crypto-currencies will completely revolutionize internet innovation because of the benefit they provide. We will no longer be handcuffed by the "chicken or egg" problem that is holding innovation back.

So you want a use case? There is one for you and I can't wait to see where it takes us.
« Last Edit: October 03, 2017, 05:17:46 PM by lifeanon269 »

lifeanon269

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #416 on: October 03, 2017, 07:58:58 PM »
I'm unable to follow this.  Is blockchain the protocol?  So investing/trading in the currency (e.g. bitcoin) will result in adoption of blockchain technology as a standard?  I don't understand how that in turn would make the tokens more valuable. 

I know all the protocols listed above and have a working understanding of how protocols are developed and evolve through consortiums and standards bodies like IETF.  So I get about half of your comment above, but I don't think it ties together like you suggest.

My understanding is that blockchain is the protocol, like TCP/IP or HTTP are protocols.  The coins are what travels over the protocol, like a particular webpage or Netflix show would.  Now that we have this new protocol, companies (like banks) are starting to put it to all kinds of new uses.  Recording the transfer of digital tokens is a nice proof of concept, but it seems the protocol can move on to bigger things without the original tokens that got it started.

Take, for example, Siacoin. If someone wanted to create a decentralized storage network to compete against Amazon, you'd have a chicken and the egg problem. No one would store their files on the network because there isn't enough people offering storage on the network to be decentralized and with enough capacity to support a user base...and without a user base, no one is going to offer up their storage to a service that doesn't make it worth their while. So a system like that with an open protocol would never be able to get off the ground. With blockchain technology, users become financially invested in the protocol itself. So users are then incentivized to offer storage on the network since that is what earns the tokens as part of the protocol. Now, since there is an entire protocol being supported by incentivized contributors, the user base can grow and adopt it.

We're going to see all sorts of new innovations like this that we're never possible before simply because economics never allowed it to be possible.

Here is a further read on the subject. Not the exact article I was looking for when I first read about the concept, but still a decent read:

http://continuations.com/post/148098927445/crypto-tokens-and-the-coming-age-of-protocol

jmecklenborg

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #417 on: October 04, 2017, 12:11:09 AM »
So what happens to the value of Bitcoin when Wall St. gets exchanges shut down in the United States just like they were in China? 

At some point in the near future the investment banks are going to develop their own blockchain network and their own daily "cash" currency and their own digital "gold" and they'll get the exchanges shut down. 

They have been harassing peer-to-peer lending and microlending for several years now.  This is the next thing. 

runbikerun

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #418 on: October 04, 2017, 02:41:03 AM »
What's with the furiously emotional response?

You asked about my position, and I explained it. I specifically avoided discussing the specifics of the technology, because the reasons I believe cryptocurrencies will collapse have nothing to do with the technology itself.

Regarding the rebalancing: I don't think you've read what I've written. I argued that indexing cryptocurrencies is futile, because they're all exposed to the same major risks, and explained that I expect to see a severe crypto crash. I do expect to see a drastic shrinkage in the crypto market, so monthly rebalancing and near-zero fees make no difference. Why would I mention monthly rebalancing when discussing a fund I fully expect will lose perhaps 90% of its value? If I have absolutely no faith in the underlying asset class, then it doesn't matter how the index fund operates.

On the subject of my numbers: yes, I guessed, because real figures are hard to come by. That said, though, I'd be pretty confident that less than three million Americans have actually possessed cryptocurrency. And I'd be outright astonished if thirty thousand Americans have managed to actually pay for a legal good or service with crypto.

What was it about my post that was "furiously emotional"? I don't think I posted anything or wrote any sentence that exuded any emotion at all, in fact. Was there something specific about my post that led you to believe it was furiously emotional?

I did read what you wrote and to be honest I didn't really see much of any specifics other than your opinion on the matter...

Quote
-"If there are people who think Bitcoin's price shouldn't necessarily bear any relation to market share, we're in an even bigger and more ridiculous bubble than I thought."
-"The risks involved in investing in Bitcoin are almost identical to the risks involved in investing in Ethereum, or Ripple, or Monero"
-"they all have wildly volatile price swings, they're all more or less completely unusable as actual currency, and they're all effectively in the same mode characterised by Robert Shipper as indicative of a bubble."
-"Building an index fund does nothing to negate those risks, which are vastly bigger than the risks specific to individual altcoins."
-"My personal opinion is that the cryptocurrency industry as it's currently comprised is in a spectacular bubble phase."
-"There's no day-to-day use case for crypto as it stands, and ten years in it doesn't look as though there ever will be."
-"Why would I mention monthly rebalancing when discussing a fund I fully expect will lose perhaps 90% of its value"
-"If I have absolutely no faith in the underlying asset class, then it doesn't matter how the index fund operates."
-"Bitcoin could fall to a dollar; Ethereum could fall to a cent. With that kind of uncertainty,  putting money in a crypto index is close to pointless."
-"My personal opinion is that a crypto index fund is a very bad idea."
-"Someone who invests in a crypto index fund may well think they're properly diversified, but they're still entirely exposed to the vicissitudes of what remains a very immature industry."
-"That said, though, I'd be pretty confident that less than three million Americans have actually possessed cryptocurrency."
-"And I'd be outright astonished if thirty thousand Americans have managed to actually pay for a legal good or service with crypto."

These are all the things from the last several posts of yours and most of it is either just speculative itself, misinformed and opinionated, or just outright false.

Investing in a crypto index fund allows an individual to diversify among crypto-currencies as a whole. It is no different than someone who feels that technology companies will do well, but rather than investing in specific companies, they invest in a fund that diversifies among the largest tech companies. You don't invest in a fund like that unless you're already comfortable investing in the underlying market itself. The same goes for a crypto index fund. Clearly, for someone like you who doesn't think crypto-currencies will be around in 10 years, then its not a fund targeted toward an individual like yourself. But, to say that they're a bad idea when they're clearly designed for individuals comfortable with the idea of crypto-currencies fails to understand the benefit they provide. They're for the individuals who feel that crypto-currencies have a place in the world, but aren't comfortable picking a winner just yet. If a particular crypto-currency fails and loses market cap, then it will fall out of the index fund and another currency will take its place. Overall, however, if one feels that the overall market will continue to grow (so far it has), then the index fund will as well.

I don't mind debating crypto-currencies and one look back at my previous posts throughout this threat and others regarding crypto-currencies will show that I enjoy a good debate and will always keep things cordial and free from personal attacks. However, looking at your previous quotes above, it is difficult to have an adequate debate regarding a topic when one side fails to talk about anything specific or outright uses false or exaggerated information.

"The blatant bogus statistics that you spout out are ridiculous."

This is what I was referring to as an emotional response.

Regarding the statistics I mentioned (and freely admitted were very rough guesses): it appears as though I have severely overestimated the number of American cryptocurrency users. This item of research from Cambridge University (http://www.cam.ac.uk/research/news/study-highlights-growing-significance-of-cryptocurrencies) indicates that the total number of users worldwide is three million, so my estimate of the same number for America alone was off by quite a distance. Cryptocurrency is in fact a good deal more niche than I had thought.

Regarding my estimate of 1% of transactions being for the purchase of legal goods or services: I freely admit that this is a shot in the dark. There's very little data on this at present; the best I could find just now was a survey done at a Chinese conference, where the self-reported figure for such transactions was 5%. If you have data to the contrary, feel free to share; I'm happy to recant in the face of better data.

On the specific subject of cryptocurrencies as a method for monetising protocol adoption: I have to say, I've been discussing cryptocurrencies with ardent advocates for a while now, and you're the first person I've seen coming in with this as a potential use case. It makes for interesting reading, and makes sense of some of what I've read elsewhere that was poorly explained. I'd still be extremely wary of investing in crypto at the moment, as I'm convinced prices have bee badly inflated by speculative investment, but I'm a good deal less cynical about its uses in ten to fifteen years than I was yesterday.

Would I be right in saying that this effectively means buying Siacoin is equivalent to putting money into an early-stage startup?

lifeanon269

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #419 on: October 04, 2017, 06:36:11 AM »
"The blatant bogus statistics that you spout out are ridiculous."

This is what I was referring to as an emotional response.

Regarding the statistics I mentioned (and freely admitted were very rough guesses): it appears as though I have severely overestimated the number of American cryptocurrency users. This item of research from Cambridge University (http://www.cam.ac.uk/research/news/study-highlights-growing-significance-of-cryptocurrencies) indicates that the total number of users worldwide is three million, so my estimate of the same number for America alone was off by quite a distance. Cryptocurrency is in fact a good deal more niche than I had thought.

Regarding my estimate of 1% of transactions being for the purchase of legal goods or services: I freely admit that this is a shot in the dark. There's very little data on this at present; the best I could find just now was a survey done at a Chinese conference, where the self-reported figure for such transactions was 5%. If you have data to the contrary, feel free to share; I'm happy to recant in the face of better data.

On the specific subject of cryptocurrencies as a method for monetising protocol adoption: I have to say, I've been discussing cryptocurrencies with ardent advocates for a while now, and you're the first person I've seen coming in with this as a potential use case. It makes for interesting reading, and makes sense of some of what I've read elsewhere that was poorly explained. I'd still be extremely wary of investing in crypto at the moment, as I'm convinced prices have bee badly inflated by speculative investment, but I'm a good deal less cynical about its uses in ten to fifteen years than I was yesterday.

Would I be right in saying that this effectively means buying Siacoin is equivalent to putting money into an early-stage startup?

That Cambridge survey was also conducted over a year ago starting in Sept 2016 when the market cap for bitcoin was less than $10 billion and the total market cap for all crypto-currencies was at around $12 billion. The market has grown 10-fold since then. So you're essentially excluding the largest growth year for the market by citing those statistics. Going by Coinbase's sign-ups alone, there are about 10.8 million accounts with Coinbase and recently they've been adding accounts up to a magnitude of about 100k-200k a day.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying that crypto-currencies are widely used and I'd even accept figures that are arguably very small, so it isn't necessarily that I was arguing the numbers themselves. Outside of the handful of people I've gotten into crypto-currencies myself, I'd only know one other person who actually owns any. But, I think the more important figure isn't what the current adoption levels are, but what the trend is for those adoption levels. This is an extremely new market and concept and so it is going to have a small market, but the trend shows that it is growing and growing fast. The fact that a lot of people know about bitcoin because of the media shows that it is only a matter of time before its continued existence will bring in more people willing to give it a try.

I fully agree that the number of ICOs that are poorly designed or even worse, fraudulent, are extremely high. A vast majority will fail. That will largely have its biggest impact on the ICO tokens themselves and the blockchain they're built on (Ethereum). I don't think the impact on bitcoin will be felt as much. Bitcoin is certainly the reserve currency for all other cryptos, but the demand that these other cryptos place on bitcoin is extremely fleeting. The current market demand for bitcoin is mostly for bitcoin itself.

I don't think investing in Siacoin is quite the same as investing in a fledgling startup. Most startup investments (even outside of crypto), in my opinion, are bold promises or based upon prototypes that are hoped to become widely used. Investing in one of these startups is largely speculative based on the idea that they'll become successful. Sia is a completely usable network today. So while it is still in a fledgling state and has new features being added all the time, it is still a completely usable product. So in that sense there is something that can actually be purchased with Siacoin. As long as there is something that is receivable, I think it is less speculative than a startup that is based on promises. Purchasing and owning the product itself is vastly different than investing in a company that has yet to prove itself. Sia is a usable product today and its usability can be attributed 100% to the breakthrough of the blockchain concept.

lifeanon269

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #420 on: October 04, 2017, 09:24:14 AM »
Interesting example on Sia.  On the surface it looks like a valid concept and real use of digital currency for decentralized cloud storage. 

I did some digging and have some concerns though.  This thing could be just taking off, or it could be failing - I'm not sure.  The coin itself had a spike in July, but now is down about 75% from the peak.  I guess this was due to speculation?  It seems that speculators driving up the price could effectively kill the whole thing before it gets off the ground by driving up the price too high.

I see the top hosts are offering storage for free now as well.  So in effect, the coin is not being used at all for it's intended purpose right now?  There is so much over-capacity in the network and so few early users that hosting storage is not profitable (income=0).

I have no idea whether Sia will succeed or fail. The decentralized storage space is starting to really pickup with many other competitors out there now (Storj, MaidSafe, Filecoin, etc). I do think however that any decentralized storage solution needs to remain cheap to be competitive. The economics of decentralized storage need to remain unprofitable. What I mean by that is that in order to out price its centralized competitors, decentralized cloud storage needs to remain cheap so that it prevents the profitability of large scale storage solutions from taking over the network (thus removing the decentralized nature of it). The point is to make it so hosts simply offer up their unused disk space to the network to utilize.

Also, when you upload your files to the network, it is spread out over many hosts. So even a few hosts offering free storage does not mean that your storage contract on the network is free for the files you upload.

Anyway, the example of Sia isn't whether or not it is a success story, but merely an example of the fact that crypto-currencies will allow for protocol monetization that was previously impossible. In that regard, Sia is a shining success given the fact that there is an abundance of storage offered up on the network even without a large user base to justify it. That effectively shows that the "chicken and the egg" problem didn't come into play which was the main point I was making. We're going to see a lot of innovation because of this; where great ideas no longer die before they were even started.

The possibilities are endless. Another concept that isn't feasible with fiat currencies is the concept of micro-payments. Currently, there isn't a way to pay for something cheaper than a penny and the current financial system that is built upon and supported by fees doesn't support payments that are too low to support those fee structures. With micro-payments, monetized protocols and machine-based currencies, we could very well see a world where sending an email could cost 1/100th of a penny. This would be a negligible cost for the individual who sends a few emails a day or for a business that sends several thousand emails a day. But, for the spammer who sends out millions or even billions of emails out in any given spam campaign, it suddenly makes that spam campaign economically unfeasible. Something like that could make spam email a thing of the past. Obviously nothing like that is in the works, but even the fact that these concepts are now theoretically possible because of crypto-currencies shows the vast potential of them.

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #421 on: October 04, 2017, 10:07:42 AM »

I did some digging and have some concerns though.  This thing could be just taking off, or it could be failing - I'm not sure.  The coin itself had a spike in July, but now is down about 75% from the peak.  I guess this was due to speculation?  It seems that speculators driving up the price could effectively kill the whole thing before it gets off the ground by driving up the price too high.


Yes, speculation drives these markets.  There have been a few major events that have impacted the ecosystem since the summer, and they cause bitcoin to plummet.  When bitcoin drops, then most altcoins drop even harder.  Their value in satoshis goes down, and the value of the satoshis themselves go down.  Double whammy.  Then you have market sentiment on the individual altcoins themselves, the actions of "whales", rumors/news, etc.  It's crazy.  Speaking to Siacoin itself, it is an older and more established coin, and lately it feels like most people are investing in the newer coins for a greater chance at big profits.

Just my 2 cents.

effigy98

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #422 on: October 04, 2017, 01:48:22 PM »
Monetizing the protocols (which crypto-currencies allow for) allows for individuals to become invested in the protocols themselves and thus receive economic gains when the protocol sees widespread use and by becoming invested in these protocols, they also become users of the protocol.

This right here is why the technology timeline is soooo very exciting. The amount of innovation we could see in a very short amount of time is mind blowing because these companies can instanaly get funded up and experiment with minimal reprocussions. The friction is so much less then the old dotcom days for dotcom startups. I was part of a few and funding was always a problem, we would have several high paid people just flying out everywhere looking for money CONSTANTLY just to keep the lights on... So inefficient. On top of that convincing old people (who usually had the money) on innovative technology that they did not understand was a constant uphill battle.
« Last Edit: October 04, 2017, 01:52:41 PM by effigy98 »

mcampbell

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #423 on: October 04, 2017, 02:58:27 PM »
Just found a great video on Bloomberg where they interview a hedge fund guy and how he is exploring Bitcoin and Ethereum, he has one of the most positive but most compelling talks on the subject. https://youtu.be/DozrRY2NENU


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powskier

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #424 on: October 04, 2017, 03:53:13 PM »
The OP was pretty clear that this was not a thread to debate if crypto currency is legit/real/of value/etc. But to discuss crypto portfolios, unfortunately it has been hijacked pretty hard.
Can you all stop now?

Tonyahu

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #425 on: October 04, 2017, 04:09:45 PM »
The OP was pretty clear that this was not a thread to debate if crypto currency is legit/real/of value/etc. But to discuss crypto portfolios, unfortunately it has been hijacked pretty hard.
Can you all stop now?

Exactly.

If you don't agree with investing in this "asset class", then feel free to argue over PM's with eachother.

This thread is for those who invest and/or plan to invest in order to reap the benefits of this volatility.

EXAMPLE:
Today on 10/04/2017, 1 Monero is $91, 1 Ether is $292, 1 Lisk is $5.45, 1 LINK is $.39 and 1 ARDR is $.16.

I will go ahead and bump this in 90 days to show you that there is rewards to be had by investing in this area.

For transparency sake, the market will be facing a decent downturn staring as soon as now (or as late as a few weeks) and will go until mid/late November. This is due to Political and Technological disagreements among the Bitcoin community. If you have been considering joining this market, the time will be then. As always, DCA into positions.

Cheers
« Last Edit: October 04, 2017, 04:14:43 PM by Tonyahu »

GuitarStv

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #426 on: October 05, 2017, 07:34:57 AM »
The OP was pretty clear that this was not a thread to debate if crypto currency is legit/real/of value/etc. But to discuss crypto portfolios, unfortunately it has been hijacked pretty hard.
Can you all stop now?

The name should probably be changed then . . . currently it reads "Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion".  You're suggesting that something like "Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency - Only Promotion And Good Words Allowed" would be more apt.

effigy98

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #427 on: October 05, 2017, 02:55:30 PM »
Good point on talking about portfolios rather then this endless debate.

I like these right now.

- Crypto gold: BTC

- Security coins (hard to track): ZEC, XMR
A lot of crypto eventually moves thru these, these are a lot more anonomous than bitcoin.

- Business coins: ETH, UBQ, KMD
UBQ is like a more stable ETH and very undervalued. It could be adopted by businesses.
KMD pays a nice dividend (think it's 5%ish) and they are going for banking. Good potential upside here.

- Banker friendly coin: XRP
I personally do not like the thought of centralized coins, but this is a hedge more then anything that banks like control and will start using this platform.

« Last Edit: October 05, 2017, 03:00:23 PM by effigy98 »

runbikerun

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #428 on: October 06, 2017, 02:32:18 AM »
- Banker friendly coin: XRP
I personally do not like the thought of centralized coins, but this is a hedge more then anything that banks like control and will start using this platform.

Limiting myself to the terms of the thread: going by the announcement from the six-bank consortium, financial institutions are going to skip the middleman and build their own cryptocurrency rather than use someone else's.

maizeman

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #429 on: October 06, 2017, 05:35:52 AM »
- Banker friendly coin: XRP
I personally do not like the thought of centralized coins, but this is a hedge more then anything that banks like control and will start using this platform.

Limiting myself to the terms of the thread: going by the announcement from the six-bank consortium, financial institutions are going to skip the middleman and build their own cryptocurrency rather than use someone else's.

I don't particularly like Ripple/XRP, but I see your six bank consortium that has said they may develop their own blockchain in the future but haven't actually done so yet and raise you 75 banks which are already working with Ripple for settling international and domestic payments.*

Note that this is not an argument for people to buy XRP for appreciation. Ripple could become wildly successful as displacing between-bank international payments by being cheaper and faster than SWIFT and it wouldn't necessarily mean that the price of XRP would appreciate dramatically.

*Source: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/75-banks-now-ripples-blockchain-network-162939601.html
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hualon

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #430 on: October 06, 2017, 06:41:14 AM »
In the spirit of the original post I thought I'd share a bit of my personal experience with crypto for those interested.

I've been doing the Mustachian method of index funds, slow-and-steady, etc. for 20 years. It has served me well. I kept a couple percent of my money reserved in cash for opportunities and then put a small percentage of that money into active investing (we're talking at most $2000 or so) mainly for entertainment. Trading individual stocks got me more active in something I enjoy so I played with it in a low-risk manner for a while. Good, wholesome, nerdy fun.

I learned about Bitcoin back when it was around $200 or so and bought $5 worth on a paper wallet from a friend. I just wanted to know how the technology worked, really. I set it aside and then learned more, bought a little more, etc. I went to a Crypto conference in August, 2014 and listened to a very compelling talk given by Vitalik Buterin about this new thing he was building called Ethereum and I immediately saw potential - if he and the team were able to pull it off, of course.

I put a few hundred dollars worth of my speculative "play" investment money into it and promptly forgot about it for a year and a half or so. I didn't even realize that people were trading it in any serious way until I looked up Ethereum and my $0.30 Ethers were trading at over $1 each. Crazy ROI especially for something so speculative. It went up so fast after that that I didn't know what to do. I sold enough to recoup my investment and to realize a little profit and let the rest ride. It was all safe money now.

Fast forward to a few months ago and what was left had gone up to be worth hundreds of thousands of dollars. It went from "price of a new car" to "price of a decent house" so quickly that I was gobsmacked. My wife and I decided to get out while the getting was great and realized enough gains to pay off our house! We're in our late 30s and there's enough left to buy another house with... all from a speculative bet 3 years ago.

I don't want to get anyone's hopes up nor do I want to proclaim that I'm some kind of investing genius. I won the lottery and I know it. This was a once in a lifetime speculation done entirely with money that was outside of our normal investment plan. Had I lost the few hundred dollars, fine - not a huge setback.

As to current holdings, I remain fascinated by the space. I hold Ethereum (inside and outside of an IRA), a little Bitcoin inside an IRA, and a few smaller startups (LINK, QTUM, NEO, MTH, OMG) that I managed to purchase at their ICO or close to it. Some are up, some are down. I doubt that I'll strike oil again like I did with ETH though.

Now I'm trying to reconcile just how far out of whack my overall asset allocation is. I never intended for crypto to be such a large portion of my portfolio and I'm trying to slowly divest. The tax situation is such that I want to do it slowly because of the capital gains. Come January 1st I'll be liquidating some more and moving it into good 'ol VTSAX. :)

mustache you a question

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #431 on: October 06, 2017, 06:59:13 AM »
A piece of investing advice that I read that made sense to me was to just put 1% of your net worth into bitcoin or etherium.  It's a gamble, but basically a hedge in case bitcoin is the disrupting force some people think it will be.  I just recently did this, if it goes to zero it's ok, I'm not risking a ton.  But if it explodes then it could pay off nicely. 

effigy98

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #432 on: October 06, 2017, 12:32:52 PM »
Fidelity has been mining for several years. It is cool they are experimenting and learning. I bet most banks are not doing this and will be behind in technical skills and knowledge to make informed decisions (and opinions).
https://qz.com/990229/one-of-the-worlds-largest-financial-services-firms-is-mining-bitcoins/

I think what you will find with banks is a lot of them just do not have the technical skills and people to run their own blockchains. They would be better off to outsource to something like ripple. A few of them will pay enough to attract talent, but most are run by people who like to squeeze their tech budgets razor thin and do not understand the space so they avoid investment in this area. Having a block chain (fad business speak of the month) is not going to translate into a successful technology. You are removing a the largest piece of what makes crypto currencies work.


effigy98

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #433 on: October 06, 2017, 12:37:34 PM »
In the spirit of the original post I thought I'd share a bit of my personal experience with crypto for those interested.

What an inspiring story. Thank you!!

PDXTabs

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #434 on: October 09, 2017, 09:10:00 AM »
When I want to sell or buy something, I could care less what I use to make that transaction as long as it's easy, relatively secure, and that the currency is stable in value and accepted pretty much everywhere. I have no interest in whether or not that's dollars, bitcoins, dirty socks, you name it. I'm agnostic on the specific currency as long as it has those basic attributes.

As of right now, none of that applies, and the "success" of crypto looks more to me like failure, since none of them have managed to become commonly used or even stable in value. I have no interest in buying something that has no use and is only transacted with itself (I don't go out and buy a bunch of dollars to stick under my bed either, and those at least are easy to use for buying stuff I actually want).

I live in the US (own ETH and BTC) and agree with you that they are not yet mature currencies. However, I was talking to a friend from Vietnam and he told me that no one in Vietnam trusts the value of their currency (the dong) and that today many transactions are carried out with gold. For a place like that ETH or BTC could be way more convenient and secure than carrying around enough gold to buy a house (literally).

Tonyahu

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #435 on: October 09, 2017, 10:39:18 AM »
In the spirit of the original post I thought I'd share a bit of my personal experience with crypto for those interested.

I've been doing the Mustachian method of index funds, slow-and-steady, etc. for 20 years. It has served me well. I kept a couple percent of my money reserved in cash for opportunities and then put a small percentage of that money into active investing (we're talking at most $2000 or so) mainly for entertainment. Trading individual stocks got me more active in something I enjoy so I played with it in a low-risk manner for a while. Good, wholesome, nerdy fun.

I learned about Bitcoin back when it was around $200 or so and bought $5 worth on a paper wallet from a friend. I just wanted to know how the technology worked, really. I set it aside and then learned more, bought a little more, etc. I went to a Crypto conference in August, 2014 and listened to a very compelling talk given by Vitalik Buterin about this new thing he was building called Ethereum and I immediately saw potential - if he and the team were able to pull it off, of course.

I put a few hundred dollars worth of my speculative "play" investment money into it and promptly forgot about it for a year and a half or so. I didn't even realize that people were trading it in any serious way until I looked up Ethereum and my $0.30 Ethers were trading at over $1 each. Crazy ROI especially for something so speculative. It went up so fast after that that I didn't know what to do. I sold enough to recoup my investment and to realize a little profit and let the rest ride. It was all safe money now.

Fast forward to a few months ago and what was left had gone up to be worth hundreds of thousands of dollars. It went from "price of a new car" to "price of a decent house" so quickly that I was gobsmacked. My wife and I decided to get out while the getting was great and realized enough gains to pay off our house! We're in our late 30s and there's enough left to buy another house with... all from a speculative bet 3 years ago.

I don't want to get anyone's hopes up nor do I want to proclaim that I'm some kind of investing genius. I won the lottery and I know it. This was a once in a lifetime speculation done entirely with money that was outside of our normal investment plan. Had I lost the few hundred dollars, fine - not a huge setback.

As to current holdings, I remain fascinated by the space. I hold Ethereum (inside and outside of an IRA), a little Bitcoin inside an IRA, and a few smaller startups (LINK, QTUM, NEO, MTH, OMG) that I managed to purchase at their ICO or close to it. Some are up, some are down. I doubt that I'll strike oil again like I did with ETH though.

Now I'm trying to reconcile just how far out of whack my overall asset allocation is. I never intended for crypto to be such a large portion of my portfolio and I'm trying to slowly divest. The tax situation is such that I want to do it slowly because of the capital gains. Come January 1st I'll be liquidating some more and moving it into good 'ol VTSAX. :)


Beautiful, what a great story!!!

I believe there will still be more stories like these to come. The institutional money is just starting to trickle in, I fully expect this sphere to get to at least 1T market cap in the near/mid term.

Best of luck to everyone, take as much risk as you feel necessary.

talltexan

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #436 on: October 09, 2017, 12:05:48 PM »
So if I want to short crypto currency, should I be long in bank stocks? Credit Stocks? Paypal?


maizeman

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #437 on: October 09, 2017, 02:12:38 PM »
You can short crypto directly, a number of the exchanges, such as Bitfinix and Kraken allow short selling.

Although there are obvious concerns about counterparty risk since the people you'd be dealing with would be heavily invested in crypto. ;-)

Right now bitcoin cryptocurrency in general is interesting because it might disrupt the business models of companies like Western Union or the major credit card companies. But if that disruption fails to materialize it won't cause a big rebound in the share prices of those companies because right now the potential disruption isn't "real" enough yet to cause any downward pressure on their share prices.
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Bicycle_B

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #438 on: October 09, 2017, 02:32:50 PM »
Hualon, thanks for sharing your story so straightforwardly.  Glad your experiments paid off!

Tonyahu

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #439 on: October 09, 2017, 05:33:54 PM »
Here are some prime examples of why you don't short the greatest bull market the world has ever seen.

https://twitter.com/bitmexrekt?lang=en

Yes, those are actual shorts / longs...yes, I know it hurts your heart.

powskier

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #440 on: October 10, 2017, 12:47:16 AM »
I only have a small amount of play money invested. Invested in Ripple partly as a hedge against the other cryptos. Many crypto gurus dismiss it because of it's centralized nature. Purchased at 0.17 was at 0.29 yesterday. the potential to replace SWIFT is also there.

powskier

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #441 on: October 10, 2017, 12:52:59 AM »
The OP was pretty clear that this was not a thread to debate if crypto currency is legit/real/of value/etc. But to discuss crypto portfolios, unfortunately it has been hijacked pretty hard.
Can you all stop now?

The name should probably be changed then . . . currently it reads "Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion".  You're suggesting that something like "Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency - Only Promotion And Good Words Allowed" would be more apt.
I am not suggesting anything other than the OP's initial post. Personally I love debating the pros/cons/hype/potentials/scams/ etc just not here on this thread.
From the very first sentence in the first post: "This thread is not to discuss if crypto-currencies are good, bad, high risk, low risk...etc but simply to post your current/future holdings. This should start a positive discussion that will leave us all smarter and more wealthy. Please do not post here with negative generalized and non-factual based statements or opinions."
Someone starts a thread with a specific request, it seems pretty straightforward to honor it, no?

Tonyahu

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #442 on: October 12, 2017, 01:00:15 PM »
New day, new all-time high.

Scared money don't make money!

lifeanon269

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #443 on: October 12, 2017, 01:13:17 PM »
New day, new all-time high.

Scared money don't make money!

Yup, it's been a good week for bitcoin! The last day or so just shows how much dominance bitcoin has over the rest of the market. It now has a market cap of over $88 billion which is over 50% of the total crypto market. Much of the rest of the crypto market is down while bitcoin is way up. Bitcoin is here to stay.

effigy98

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #444 on: October 12, 2017, 03:43:53 PM »
BTC over $5200! This little crytpo thing is 3% of my total portfolio but 90% of the gains. Pretty insane. Triggered another rebalance.

Tonyahu

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #445 on: October 12, 2017, 04:30:22 PM »
BTC over $5200! This little crytpo thing is 3% of my total portfolio but 90% of the gains. Pretty insane. Triggered another rebalance.

Man, if you could just chill and re-balance in a year you'd be able to retire a few years early :}

shadow

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #446 on: October 12, 2017, 11:11:47 PM »
Just a heads up. If you haven't already, I recommend you research omg (omisego).

I was originally in btc then moved into eth, and am now diversified into omg. I am aware of various other crypto and have researched them (neo, dash, iota, zec, ark, link, knc, etc), but I believe omg to be the strongest contender despite the omg blockchain not yet existing, as compared to the current top 12 in coinmarketcap.com. Omg is speculative and obviously has risk.

Omg will be a proof-of-stake blockchain, functioning as an agnostic payment network, dex (decentralized exchange), ewallet, etc.

If anyone has questions, I'll share what I know.

I'm not giving investment advice. Just letting people know about a possible opportunity. Do your due diligence. If you are unclear about omg or have doubts, stay away from it.   

maizeman

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #447 on: October 12, 2017, 11:37:08 PM »
I believe omg to be the strongest contender despite the omg blockchain not yet existing, as compared to the current top 12 in coinmarketcap.com.

....

If anyone has questions, I'll share what I know.

I guess my question would be: why do you think that? What's the elevator pitch for why you think people are likely to adopt omg?

(The equivalents for other coins: IOTA -- potential for lots and lots of micropayments, ZEC -- best for anonymity instead of pseudonymity, DASH -- much faster transactions*, ETH -- more complicated transactions through smart contracts.)

*Although this comparative advantage is going away with the lightening networks on BTC and LTC.
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shadow

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #448 on: October 12, 2017, 11:55:04 PM »
Just to be clear, I'm a longterm holder of eth as well.

I think that much of the value for those crypto comes from the fact that they are existing and functioning blockchains.

Iota is currently centralized and using a coordinator to springboard the network until it achieves enough network effect where it no longer needs to rely on the coordinator. I'm not convinced that it will be able to effectively remove the coordinator. In addition, there is the controversy surrounding it regarding cryptographic vulnerabilities.

The zksnark zero-proof in zec is planned for use in eth, and I don't see why it won't be adapted into omg.

From an empirical perspective, eth has a more foundational infrastructure, greater developer mindshare, and superior ecosystem over dash.

As for omg, once it goes live, it can integrate into an existing payment network infrastucture and allow various payment networks to transact with each other. Exclusive loyalty or reward programs, in-game currencies, etc, have the potential to be unlocked and transacted as value into a greater network. Also, an advantage omg will have over many of the existing blockchains is that a standardized onboarding cash in/out process is expected to be unveiled before year end; instead of relying on other crypto to get it, people will directly be able to trade for it with cash at supporting establishments (possibly convenience stores). Merchants and consumers will have a reason to use omg (reduced transactional barriers, lower overhead costs, trustless trust standard, etc).

« Last Edit: October 13, 2017, 12:06:07 AM by shadow »

kivex

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #449 on: October 13, 2017, 12:30:38 AM »
Being MMM, low cost passive index funds are well proven. Applying the same to crypto currencies is what the Crypto 20 (C20) token provides. The fund contains the top 20 coins, is autonomous, and rebalanced weekly.

https://crypto20.com

If you feel that crypto will grow over time then this is a great way to have exposure to the top 20 coins in the market.