Author Topic: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion  (Read 47813 times)

GuitarStv

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #350 on: September 08, 2017, 05:58:00 PM »
Quote
The success or failure of these currencies and tokens will be totally random.

it won't be random.  as you say, it's an unregulated free market and the best cryptocurrencies will win.

Yeah.  The unregulated free market always picks the best technology to win.  That's why betamax destoyed VHS.  Wait . . .

and VHS, DVD, and BluRay have all been abandoned in favor of streaming and DVRs.

My point was that there exist many examples in the past where the best stuff available was passed over for more inferior competitors by the unregulated free market.

phil22

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #351 on: September 08, 2017, 09:18:39 PM »
right, but only temporarily until superior competitors came along.  it appears random in the short term, but it's not random.  if you zoom out you can clearly see that VHS, the temporary "winner," is long gone and deservedly so.

GuitarStv

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #352 on: September 11, 2017, 07:31:21 AM »
right, but only temporarily until superior competitors came along.  it appears random in the short term, but it's not random.  if you zoom out you can clearly see that VHS, the temporary "winner," is long gone and deservedly so.

Right.  But figuring out which technology will be the winner is not possible at the time that it matters for investing . . . because sometimes the market chooses the worst option.

Tonyahu

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #353 on: September 13, 2017, 12:33:06 PM »
regulation has nothing to do with how well or poorly an asset performs.  national currencies and stocks have plenty of problems.
Of course it does.  All of the things the SEC does (or your county auditor for real estate transactions) is a response to the abuses that existed before those regulations were enacted.  Any call you hear for an "elimination of regulations" is usually a shyster who recognizes how he can swindle someone when that seemingly onerous regulation is lifted. 

do you not believe in free markets?  there are many examples of inferior products that only exist because they are protected by regulation and lobbying.  one example is the crumbly old slow internet-averse global financial system.  another example is the fossil fuel automotive industry.

Quote
Quote
The success or failure of these currencies and tokens will be totally random.
it won't be random.  as you say, it's an unregulated free market and the best cryptocurrencies will win.
Well Litecoin, et al., are all "better" than bitcoin, yet bitcoin reigns supreme, several years after these better competitors appeared.  There are endless examples throughout history of a lesser product winning over a better one.  Better salesmen and better luck.  Bitcoin has the Winklevoss Twins and other high-profile champions.  Litecoin does not. 

bitcoin was invented first, luck has nothing to do with it.  litecoin (and other coins forked from bitcoin's source code) are cheap clones backed by way weaker mining networks.  that's why bitcoin reigns supreme.  litecoin was a failed attempt to make an ASIC-proof coin.


Furthermore, those who claim "Litecoin is faster" are short sighted.

Sure it's faster when experiencing 10% of the network stress, but if LTC experienced the same transaction volume of BTC it would be much slower, have higher fees...etc.


To clarify, I do believe that 70%+ of these currencies will fail but we still have much larger valuations to hit before any "bubble talk" can be had. Eventually, yes, the bubble (2019-2020ish) will deflate and only those with unique value propositions will remain.

https://hackernoon.com/why-everyone-missed-the-most-mind-blowing-feature-of-cryptocurrency-860c3f25f1fb

You are making some absolutely wild assumptions that no one on this Earth could humanly know, to the point that it's starting to make the opposing view's case even stronger.

And I'm for Blockchain technology.   

Which assumptions in particular?

Let's get them clarified so we can revisit them in the future to see if what I said panned out.
« Last Edit: September 13, 2017, 12:35:37 PM by Tonyahu »

waltworks

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #354 on: September 13, 2017, 02:40:41 PM »
I thought this was an interesting article in the NYT. I knew bitcoin was primarily a Chinese thing, but I didn't realize just how much of it is being done in China.

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/13/business/bitcoin-mine-china.html?rref=collection%2Fsectioncollection%2Fbusiness&action=click&contentCollection=business&region=rank&module=package&version=highlights&contentPlacement=1&pgtype=sectionfront&_r=0

-W

surfhb

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #355 on: September 13, 2017, 03:29:13 PM »
right, but only temporarily until superior competitors came along.  it appears random in the short term, but it's not random.  if you zoom out you can clearly see that VHS, the temporary "winner," is long gone and deservedly so.

Right.  But figuring out which technology will be the winner is not possible at the time that it matters for investing . . . because sometimes the market chooses the worst option.

Exactly.    I once invested thousands of dollars in a HD-DVD authoring system only to see Blu-Ray win the battle.   The only reason BD won was because Sony paid the studios to release their content on BD ONLY.    Leaving small time producers like myself priced out of the market.   

Saskatchewstachian

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #356 on: September 13, 2017, 04:55:44 PM »
Apologies if I missed this earlier in the thread but looking to gather thoughts on investing in GBTC (Bitcoin Investment Trust).

It seems like it would be a good vehicle to gain exposure to bitcoin without having to complete things like setting up a wallet, getting registered on an exchange,etc. Instead it can trade OTC directly in your brokerage account.

Am I missing a main downfall of using GBTC instead of directly buying BTC?

maizeman

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #357 on: September 13, 2017, 05:10:57 PM »
The downfall of this is that currently GBTC trades at a 70%-90% premium over the value of the bitcoin assets it hold. So buying GBTC would be like paying $2,560/oz for gold while gold is currently trading for $1,350/oz.
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phil22

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #358 on: September 13, 2017, 05:25:35 PM »
i'll add that with GBTC you never see the private keys of the underlying bitcoin, so you don't know that it actually exists, and this defeats the purpose of bitcoin.  the rule of thumb is that if you don't have exclusive ownership of the private keys you don't own the bitcoin.  you might not care about this if you just want to make a quick buck.

if a different bitcoin blockchain fork takes the lead a month from now, or a year from now, or whatever, will you still own what is considered to be "bitcoin" or will you own worthless coins on the dead blockchain?  you don't have to worry about this if you own the private keys before the fork.

it may be a worthwhile gamble if your goal is to make a quick buck, not if you actually want to own bitcoin long term.
« Last Edit: September 13, 2017, 05:29:01 PM by phil22 »

powskier

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #359 on: September 14, 2017, 11:21:26 PM »
I keep my BTC and LTC on a Trezor wallet and ETH on a web based wallet via Trezor. But I just picked up a few Monero through Kraken and am not sure what to do with them. Any ideas?

A lot of the crypto trading scene reminds me of aspects of the penny stock scene 15-20 years ago, except more liquidity, more volatility and 24hr trading. Can be a bit wild out there as proven by the past 6 months.

talltexan

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #360 on: September 15, 2017, 07:47:37 AM »
We watch the trading of GBTC around the office here. It's pretty entertaining when you can get a year's worth of appreciation (or decline) in a single trading day.

Truly no one seems to have any idea what this stuff is actually worth! That's a source of excitement as well as stress. But if investment is about accepting volatility in exchange for a return, I cannot see how the return would be worth the volatility here. I suppose investing 1% of your stach would be defensible. If it triples next year, you got 2% more than you'd have with gold. But that other 99% of your portfolio is giving you 9.9%/year, amiright?

lifeanon269

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #361 on: September 15, 2017, 09:15:32 AM »
Truly no one seems to have any idea what this stuff is actually worth! That's a source of excitement as well as stress. But if investment is about accepting volatility in exchange for a return, I cannot see how the return would be worth the volatility here. I suppose investing 1% of your stach would be defensible. If it triples next year, you got 2% more than you'd have with gold. But that other 99% of your portfolio is giving you 9.9%/year, amiright?

I don't think investing is about accepting volatility in exchange for a return. I think it is about accepting risk in exchange for a return. You can have a non-volatile investment that is extremely risky and vice versa you can have an extremely volatile investment that doesn't have much relative risk.

So rather than categorizing bitcoin in your investment portfolio based on its volatility, it should be categorized based on its risk/reward and how you see that fitting into your overall investment strategy. If you feel bitcoin has a lot of risk to it, then you can include that in with your other high risk/high reward investments. The portion of your overall investment profile that consists of high risk investments should be determined based on your risk tolerance.

I don't view bitcoin as risky as others might view bitcoin and I am also long on bitcoin. Therefore its short-term volatility doesn't matter much to me. I also include it as a slightly larger portion of my portfolio than others might be willing to tolerate because of my high risk tolerance. So to me, the risk is worth the reward and it has become one of my primary after-tax investment options.

I also don't think it is fair to say that nobody has any idea how much bitcoin is worth. I just think that everyone has their own different idea on how much it is worth and everyone is willing to sell their bitcoin at differing values. The same goes for just about every asset out there. Someone with a holding of gold will part with it at a certain market price while someone with the same amount of gold holdings might part with theirs at a completely different price. They value their gold differently just like everyone is valuing their bitcoin differently. It's just that there are far fewer people who own bitcoin and so these differences in valuations are felt more in the market which is why we see so much volatility.

Finally, to me, its value also comes from beyond just its price point in the market. I feel that bitcoin and the technology behind it represents a huge shift in how currency is handled by humans. I see bitcoin as revolutionary as the internet itself. Therefore I am willing to put some of my money into bitcoin based on this idea without taking into consideration any risk or reward by doing so.

talltexan

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #362 on: September 18, 2017, 08:57:42 AM »
Thanks for this well-thought-out response.

The difficulty I have with valuing bitcoin is the same difficulty I would have with any commodity: there is no apparent income stream/earnings equivalent. I'm a lot more comfortable valuing a business based on its earnings than I am valuing currency.


jmecklenborg

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #363 on: September 18, 2017, 10:16:58 AM »
I feel that bitcoin and the technology behind it represents a huge shift in how currency is handled by humans. I see bitcoin as revolutionary as the internet itself. Therefore I am willing to put some of my money into bitcoin based on this idea without taking into consideration any risk or reward by doing so.

Bitcoin is almost 10 years old.  Nobody was really talking about it being "the future" until its value started getting ridiculous in the last year.  Yeah, there was that push back in 2012 or 2013, but after the crash, it returned to being the butt of jokes.   

thenextguy

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #364 on: September 18, 2017, 10:34:37 AM »
I feel that bitcoin and the technology behind it represents a huge shift in how currency is handled by humans. I see bitcoin as revolutionary as the internet itself. Therefore I am willing to put some of my money into bitcoin based on this idea without taking into consideration any risk or reward by doing so.

Nobody was really talking about it being "the future" until its value started getting ridiculous in the last year.

I think you may have the cause and effect backwards.

lifeanon269

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #365 on: September 18, 2017, 10:47:58 AM »
Bitcoin is almost 10 years old.  Nobody was really talking about it being "the future" until its value started getting ridiculous in the last year.  Yeah, there was that push back in 2012 or 2013, but after the crash, it returned to being the butt of jokes.   

What does its age have to do with anything?

Not sure what you mean by nobody, unless you're only following bitcoin based on what the media is saying at any given moment. Why did you put "the future" in quotes? What jokes are you referring to when you say that bitcoin is the butt of them?

Bitcoin doesn't have to be used in every coffee transaction for it to be an astronomical success or for it to drastically change how currency is treated by humans across the world. At the moment, if a government enacts poor monetary policies or strict tyrannical controls of currency in any given country, there isn't much that the citizen population can do against that at the moment. Their wealth is at the complete mercy of their government. All money today must typically adhere to institutional practices which are enforced from the government down. Gold is too cumbersome to move and not freely liquid enough for the common citizen. Some of the only other options are obscure legal arrangements/loopholes to skirt around laws that usually require immense assets to take advantage and are therefore out of reach of the common citizen.

The threat of bitcoin completely changes all of this. You may think that this isn't important, but going forward, the capability of bitcoin to allow any citizen anywhere in the world to exit any economy at any time is a huge financial freedom. It is a freedom that hasn't really existed in the modern era. In this sense, bitcoin has already succeeded and it will only become more apparent as time goes on. This freedom is not dependent upon the price of bitcoin in any given market.

And that's just one of its many benefits.
« Last Edit: September 18, 2017, 10:50:16 AM by lifeanon269 »

Tonyahu

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #366 on: September 18, 2017, 11:23:57 AM »
Cheers to anyone who bought the dip last week! I didn't have any liquid fiat I was willing to use.

I keep my BTC and LTC on a Trezor wallet and ETH on a web based wallet via Trezor. But I just picked up a few Monero through Kraken and am not sure what to do with them. Any ideas?

A lot of the crypto trading scene reminds me of aspects of the penny stock scene 15-20 years ago, except more liquidity, more volatility and 24hr trading. Can be a bit wild out there as proven by the past 6 months.

www.MyMonero.Com always make sure you double check the website, there are phishing sites around.

Monero is in final testing with Ledger soon, which will open up Hardware wallet support. I expect Trezor to follow suit.

jmecklenborg

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #367 on: September 18, 2017, 11:41:10 AM »


What does its age have to do with anything?

Not sure what you mean by nobody, unless you're only following bitcoin based on what the media is saying at any given moment. Why did you put "the future" in quotes? What jokes are you referring to when you say that bitcoin is the butt of them?


Back when Bitcoin was invented, nobody was talking about the actual coins being a buy-and-hold investment.  The coins were used as currency for a time, although most of it was either tax evasion (paying bonuses in bitcoin, for example) or to buy illegal drugs.  People who heard about bitcoin but had no reason to do that stuff had no reason to figure out how to buy bitcoins, so they didn't. 

Also, the "dream" held out there that bitcoin will be a tool for the little guy is very much a be careful what you wish for situation.  There has been a dark side to all of the so-called disruptive innovations of the last decade -- downsides that blind proponents refuse to acknowledge.  Uber, airbnb, etc., have all caused as many problems as they have solved, and cryptocurrency and tokens are no different. 




lifeanon269

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #368 on: September 18, 2017, 12:26:18 PM »
Back when Bitcoin was invented, nobody was talking about the actual coins being a buy-and-hold investment.  The coins were used as currency for a time, although most of it was either tax evasion (paying bonuses in bitcoin, for example) or to buy illegal drugs.  People who heard about bitcoin but had no reason to do that stuff had no reason to figure out how to buy bitcoins, so they didn't. 

Also, the "dream" held out there that bitcoin will be a tool for the little guy is very much a be careful what you wish for situation.  There has been a dark side to all of the so-called disruptive innovations of the last decade -- downsides that blind proponents refuse to acknowledge.  Uber, airbnb, etc., have all caused as many problems as they have solved, and cryptocurrency and tokens are no different.

I am really having a hard time trying to follow the point you're trying to make. Maybe it is me, but I've reread your original post where you quoted me as well as this quote about and I don't understand what you're saying.

I agree that most of the original bitcoin owners were not looking at bitcoin as a long term investment. In fact, most early-adopters treated it as an experiment and proof of concept. I'd argue that most people who were using bitcoin in the very early days when its value was negligible were the very people who believed in the social good or technological aspect of it more than any investment property of it. If you read Satoshi's whitepaper on bitcoin, this is bitcoin's very aim.

There were certainly some inflows of nefarious activity with bitcoin that developed thereafter as usually those groups of individuals have a greater pressing need for advancements that further their capabilities than the general population. However, Homeland Security has even stated that they've found the amount of nefarious activity within bitcoin stagnate lately and that their tracking capabilities have increased.

So if the point is to state that the social bad outweighs the social good, time will tell. In my opinion though freedom will always come at cost, but I believe that there is always more good that outweighs bad in the world and therefore any freedom applied to the human population as a whole will always benefit the greater good more proportionally than it will the bad in the world.

No doubt there are always downsides to additional freedoms, I fully acknowledge that and am not blind to them. In your example, I fully realize that AirBnB has led to price increases in numerous neighborhoods that has been caused by renting specifically for the AirBnB business model.

If the point is that the bad outweighs the good, then I would certainly argue against that. Was that the point you're making? I hope I addressed the point you were talking about. If I went on a tangent completely irrelevant to your point, then I apologize.

effigy98

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #369 on: September 19, 2017, 04:09:30 PM »
This is probably one of the best resources for learning about bitcoin. This guy knows his stuff and explains things very well.

https://www.youtube.com/user/aantonop

maizeman

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #370 on: September 19, 2017, 08:52:33 PM »
Quote
China is moving forward with plans to shut down Bitcoin exchanges in the country, starting with trading platforms in key cities. All Bitcoin exchanges in Beijing and Shanghai have been ordered to submit plans for winding down their operations by 20 September. ... All exchanges are required to send regulators a detailed "risk-free" plan of how they intend to exit the market before 18:30 local time on Wednesday 20 September.

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-41320568

Now at the same time, it seems like the price of bitcoin is moving up rather than down. On September 15th it hit a recent minimum of just under $3000, and is now back up close to $4000. As I write this it's about 11 in the morning in Beijing, so in seven and a half hours their exchanges should start going dark. .... Going to be fascinating to see how this plays out!
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Tonyahu

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #371 on: September 20, 2017, 05:32:39 PM »
If anyone is looking to get into a new position I would check out VTC. It should get atomic swaps with LTC by year end and then with BTC within 1-2 years. It's currently not even in the top 100 market cap but is one of the older alts. Currently trading at about 90 cents.

Fundamentals are good and team is good, HYPE hasn't hit it yet.

Cheers

waltworks

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #372 on: September 20, 2017, 05:39:49 PM »
Fundamentals are good and team is good, HYPE hasn't hit it yet.

Cheers

I'm honestly curious - what "fundamentals" do cryptocurrencies/exchanges/companies have?

-W

zuht

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #373 on: September 21, 2017, 05:49:26 PM »
I hold BTC, ETH, and XMR (Monero) in roughly equal portions -- not a lot, maybe $1,000-$1,500 in all. All of that has come from mining ETH and XMR with a combination of CPU (i7 and E5 Xeons) and GPU (1070, 480, 570s). I mined Litecoin a few years ago, but liquidated the coin and hardware quickly (made a few hundred bucks in the process). At this point, I view the mining as "buying" coin at a discount (the cost of electricity and hardware versus market price) to hold, rather than trying to make regular income by selling whatever comes in.

Of the coins I hold, they all feel a little different. Bitcoin is about as close to "fiat" as cryptocurrency gets, though it's starting to show its age. With Monero, it's all about anonymity. Ethereum is really neat in concept with the smart contracts, and that's why you see so many offshoots and so much corporate interest. As a software developer and security buff though, I feel like those smart contracts are going to end up being its biggest liability. Just like it's easy to build flashy software riddled with vulnerabilities, it's easy to create a contract riddle with vulnerabilities -- there's a heck of a lot of money one the line with the contracts though!

Blockchain tech is definitely intriguing though, and I'll keep at it until the wasted electricity costs too much to make sense. I do feel a little guilty about how much power I'm using on this hobby.

GuitarStv

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #374 on: September 21, 2017, 06:07:08 PM »
Fundamentals are good and team is good, HYPE hasn't hit it yet.

Cheers

I'm honestly curious - what "fundamentals" do cryptocurrencies/exchanges/companies have?

-W

lol

phil22

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #375 on: September 22, 2017, 03:59:02 PM »
I'm honestly curious - what "fundamentals" do cryptocurrencies/exchanges/companies have?
lol


Fundamentals are good and team is good, HYPE hasn't hit it yet.
This kind of comment is what I'd expect from a PUMP & DUMP kind of investor.  The statements made about future value have no basis.  It would be more productive if you give some review of this new coin you just bought and how it's better than others rather than a shameless pump.

agreed.  we shouldn't be doing empty sales pitches for various cryptocurrencies.  if you want to argue why a particular coin is valuable the requirement should be to defend the position you've taken with a coin with lots of posts and discussion here -- not a single one-off post.

if coin X has "atomic swaps" with coins Y and Z, why wouldn't you just buy coins Y and Z?  why would X still be valuable if Y and Z aren't?

--

as for "what fundamentals cryptocurrencies have" i think it can be broken down like:

since the code and features are in my opinion not "fundamentals," we should only be looking at the health of the community of users/miners/developers/companies for a coin, and government favorability as well.

alena30

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #376 on: September 28, 2017, 04:46:08 AM »
We must accept the fact that the cryptocurrency is the future of currency as the blockchain technology is far better than the traditional way followed by the central banks.

GuitarStv

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #377 on: September 28, 2017, 07:37:21 AM »
We must accept the fact that the cryptocurrency is the future of currency as the blockchain technology is far better than the traditional way followed by the central banks.

No we mustn't.  No cryptocurrency to date has taken the place of fiat currency or proved itself as a useful means of exchange for goods.  It's interesting technology - something to think about, and something that might be a good idea to keep an eye on.  By no means is there any kind of certainty regarding it.

waltworks

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #378 on: September 28, 2017, 08:34:26 AM »
Don't bother, those are just sock puppets spamming us.

-W

effigy98

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #379 on: September 28, 2017, 01:43:30 PM »
Invested in my first ICO. It was painless. I feel like I am on the ground floor of an amazon, microsoft, or pets.bomb. I am ready for moon or total loss. So exciting. I still rather have a highly diversified crytpo ETF that spreads out the risks.

powskier

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #380 on: September 30, 2017, 12:21:09 AM »
I didn't invest at Google IPO because I didn't quite understand how it all worked.I hate the feeling I have now looking at what could have been.

I threw a little play money at some crypto because I didn't want to have that same feeling 10 years from now.

Yes there are tons of gimmicky ICO's and pump and dump is for real,  but there is also some very interesting blockchain technology happening and also an entirely new model of funding for start ups. Why hassle with VCs and banks when you can just issue a coin....

runbikerun

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #381 on: September 30, 2017, 12:42:37 AM »
One thing I've noticed when discussing cryptocurrencies elsewhere is that actual discussion of things that can materially effect the future of cryptocurrency is almost totally absent among crypto boosters.

For example: by the end of 2018, it's quite likely that the single biggest cryptocurrency on earth will be one developed by a consortium of six banks for the purposes of simplifying cross-border transfers. This project was announced about two months ago, and doesn't make use of any existing cryptocurrencies; instead it uses blockchain technology to simply make the existing system easier. If you think crypto has a future beyond fringe uses, this should be genuinely earth-shattering: we've just been shown that existing cryptocurrencies will be irrelevant to perhaps 99.9% of the world's money market activity. And yet, the day this appeared in the Financial Times, bitcoin's price simply kept going up. Even here, I don't believe there's been a single mention of it. At the very least, crypto is limited to interpersonal transactions that can't be done using existing currencies: at the most, even that is potentially under threat as it's now clear that banks can build their own systems for these purposes. And yet there's nothing; no acknowledgement of what this means, no acknowledgement that it's even happening.

lifeanon269

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #382 on: September 30, 2017, 08:10:05 AM »
For example: by the end of 2018, it's quite likely that the single biggest cryptocurrency on earth will be one developed by a consortium of six banks for the purposes of simplifying cross-border transfers.

Saying that institutional banks utilizing blockchain technology to become more efficient is a threat to an open and decentralized bitcoin is like saying that a gas powered pickup truck model increasing its miles per gallon from 15MPG to 25MPG is a threat to Tesla. Bitcoin is such a huge paradigm shift that an efficiency improvement for centralized financial institutions utilizing fiat money will not be what impacts its success.

waltworks

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #383 on: September 30, 2017, 08:21:28 AM »
For example: by the end of 2018, it's quite likely that the single biggest cryptocurrency on earth will be one developed by a consortium of six banks for the purposes of simplifying cross-border transfers.

Saying that institutional banks utilizing blockchain technology to become more efficient is a threat to an open and decentralized bitcoin is like saying that a gas powered pickup truck model increasing its miles per gallon from 15MPG to 25MPG is a threat to Tesla. Bitcoin is such a huge paradigm shift that an efficiency improvement for centralized financial institutions utilizing fiat money will not be what impacts its success.

Well, as a sort of normal non-aligned person who uses money, I'd be much more likely to use (for actually buying stuff) a crypto currency issued by a major bank or government than Bitcoin or some other free-range crypto. The various horror stories of exchanges disappearing, people having their crypto stolen, etc all add up (for me, and probably for most folks without a strong preexisting opinion) to total distrust of any of them.

When ordinary people (not rich Chinese trying to hide money or speculate) start buying and selling actual stuff with Bitcoin on a large scale, you could convince me.

-W

lifeanon269

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #384 on: September 30, 2017, 09:56:25 AM »
Well, as a sort of normal non-aligned person who uses money, I'd be much more likely to use (for actually buying stuff) a crypto currency issued by a major bank or government than Bitcoin or some other free-range crypto. The various horror stories of exchanges disappearing, people having their crypto stolen, etc all add up (for me, and probably for most folks without a strong preexisting opinion) to total distrust of any of them.

When ordinary people (not rich Chinese trying to hide money or speculate) start buying and selling actual stuff with Bitcoin on a large scale, you could convince me.

-W

I have no doubt that there will be advances is payment technologies utilizing fiat currencies, etc. In fact, there already has been (ApplePay/Google wallet/SamsungPay, NFC, EMV chip cards, etc). Please explain how central banks or financial institutions that utilize blockchain technology to reduce overhead costs will make any sort of difference for the consumer. Maybe it will be a slight change in the point of sale transaction where they use their cell phone to pay (similar to ApplePay) instead of swiping a card. Or maybe the consumer pays lower fees for international transfers (although the greater likelihood is that banks will simply improve their profit margins with these efficiencies). A blockchain backend within a centralized system isn't really much different than a database backend in a centralized system.

Exchanges disappearing and crypto getting stolen are all part of the pain points of an early technology getting its start. Larger exchanges that are more tightly regulated and better funded will naturally appear over time (look at Coinbase as an example). That isn't a criticism against an open decentralized bitcoin though. Who knows, maybe some day there won't be a need for an exchange which would make that argument seem ridiculous in hindsight. New apps and consumer education will make it easier for endusers to store and secure their bitcoin without as much worry about losing it.

If you think that the people buying bitcoin are rich Chinese, then you're sorely mistaken. Especially now given the fact that the Chinese market has largely evacuated the market since the Chinese government clamped down on exchanges. The Chinese market makes up a very small portion of the market.

But you miss the whole point of bitcoin. Given some of your statements about bitcoin, I think this would be a good read for you to help you understand Bitcoin a little better:

https://dealbook.nytimes.com/2014/01/21/why-bitcoin-matters/

runbikerun

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #385 on: September 30, 2017, 11:35:36 AM »
For example: by the end of 2018, it's quite likely that the single biggest cryptocurrency on earth will be one developed by a consortium of six banks for the purposes of simplifying cross-border transfers.

Saying that institutional banks utilizing blockchain technology to become more efficient is a threat to an open and decentralized bitcoin is like saying that a gas powered pickup truck model increasing its miles per gallon from 15MPG to 25MPG is a threat to Tesla. Bitcoin is such a huge paradigm shift that an efficiency improvement for centralized financial institutions utilizing fiat money will not be what impacts its success.

That is firstly a wildly optimistic assessment of the state of the US car market and Tesla's share of it (they're only just barely on the radar, and it remains very much an open question whether they'll scale up fast enough to prevent established car companies cutting the ground from under them), and secondly a wildly optimistic assessment of Bitcoin's position. Tesla represents less than 1% of new car sales in the United States, and compared to Bitcoin that's a staggering success. Bitcoin transactions total about a quarter of a million a day: for comparison, Starbucks sells about 25 times that many drinks in the same time. Compared to fiat currency transactions, Bitcoin activity is a rounding error - and that's including God knows how many speculative transactions that have no purpose beyond trying to get rich trading the damn stuff.

Here's a question: what percentage of daily transactions in the United States is composed of purchases of goods or services using cryptocurrencies? I suspect it's beyond microscopic: Bitcoin isn't Tesla, it's not even your friend Dave who upgrades his car every year and sells the old one on Craigslist. It's a libertarian crank selling coal-rolling kits on eBay.

phil22

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #386 on: September 30, 2017, 01:28:28 PM »
market share has nothing to do with it, i believe the point was that the markets don't overlap.  that's why it's not earth-shattering for the crypto community.  people who buy teslas don't care about the latest models of gas-powered pickups.  likewise, people who believe in the future of non-government cryptocurrencies don't care about a new way banks are going to be transacting with fiat currency.

lifeanon269

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #387 on: September 30, 2017, 02:24:11 PM »
market share has nothing to do with it, i believe the point was that the markets don't overlap.  that's why it's not earth-shattering for the crypto community.  people who buy teslas don't care about the latest models of gas-powered pickups.  likewise, people who believe in the future of non-government cryptocurrencies don't care about a new way banks are going to be transacting with fiat currency.

That was exactly my point.

runbikerun

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #388 on: September 30, 2017, 03:17:20 PM »
market share has nothing to do with it, i believe the point was that the markets don't overlap.  that's why it's not earth-shattering for the crypto community.  people who buy teslas don't care about the latest models of gas-powered pickups.  likewise, people who believe in the future of non-government cryptocurrencies don't care about a new way banks are going to be transacting with fiat currency.

That was exactly my point.

If there are people who think Bitcoin's price shouldn't necessarily bear any relation to market share, we're in an even bigger and more ridiculous bubble than I thought.

lifeanon269

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #389 on: October 01, 2017, 08:52:51 AM »
If there are people who think Bitcoin's price shouldn't necessarily bear any relation to market share, we're in an even bigger and more ridiculous bubble than I thought.

First off, marketshare of what? Second, in what world is the price of anything ever dictated by marketshare? By that measure, any new product, asset or commodity that comes to market would automatically start with a value of $0. It is no different for currencies.

The value of something in an open market is strictly determined by supply and demand. The more demand for something with a limited supply, then the greater its value. The market determines the value. Bitcoin is one of the few completely open and unmanipulated marketplaces out there, so if this economic principle were ever true for anything, it would be for bitcoin. You can argue that some people are purchasing bitcoin at today's price on the premise that its future marketshare of the gold market (for example) will be a certain amount, but that doesn't change the fact that today's value of bitcoin is based on today's market forces (supply/demand) of bitcoin, not tomorrow's. So the given price of bitcoin today is strictly based on today's supply and demand for it. So long as people continue to view it as a good store of value, then there will continue to be new people looking to bitcoin to store some of their wealth. The premise that it is a good store of value has a direct relationship with how well the network operates and whether or not it is technologically stable, which for the last almost 10 years, it has been so incredibly.

Now, if you'd excuse me, I am off to demand that I purchase a Ferrari for a few bucks while their marketshare is negligible.

JAYSLOL

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #390 on: October 01, 2017, 09:06:46 AM »

Now, if you'd excuse me, I am off to demand that I purchase a Ferrari for a few bucks while their marketshare is negligible.

If that works, get one for me too.  Good point about market share vs price

runbikerun

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #391 on: October 01, 2017, 09:17:02 AM »
If there are people who think Bitcoin's price shouldn't necessarily bear any relation to market share, we're in an even bigger and more ridiculous bubble than I thought.

First off, marketshare of what? Second, in what world is the price of anything ever dictated by marketshare? By that measure, any new product, asset or commodity that comes to market would automatically start with a value of $0. It is no different for currencies.

The value of something in an open market is strictly determined by supply and demand. The more demand for something with a limited supply, then the greater its value. The market determines the value. Bitcoin is one of the few completely open and unmanipulated marketplaces out there, so if this economic principle were ever true for anything, it would be for bitcoin. You can argue that some people are purchasing bitcoin at today's price on the premise that its future marketshare of the gold market (for example) will be a certain amount, but that doesn't change the fact that today's value of bitcoin is based on today's market forces (supply/demand) of bitcoin, not tomorrow's. So the given price of bitcoin today is strictly based on today's supply and demand for it. So long as people continue to view it as a good store of value, then there will continue to be new people looking to bitcoin to store some of their wealth. The premise that it is a good store of value has a direct relationship with how well the network operates and whether or not it is technologically stable, which for the last almost 10 years, it has been so incredibly.

Now, if you'd excuse me, I am off to demand that I purchase a Ferrari for a few bucks while their marketshare is negligible.

There's no point in continuing this particular thread of the conversation. We're at cross-purposes. I still cannot for the life of me see how a history of less than a decade, punctuated by astronomical gains and horrendous losses in price, and specifically named by the guy who wrote the Nobel-winning book on asset bubbles as being a perfect example of an asset bubble, can be sanely compared to gold, which has been used as a store of value for several thousand years and is more or less immediately convertible to usable money. Especially not when a significant number of its proponents don't even believe a currency should be a store of value.

waltworks

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #392 on: October 01, 2017, 09:57:58 AM »
I think Bitcoin could conceivably be e-gold. The design of they system (inherently deflationary/limited supply) is actually ideal for store-of-value use. The hyper-volatility and various scams/frauds/thefts are obviously a problem.

As a currency, it's a bad joke. I am not sure how you could do a worse job designing a currency.

-W

mcampbell

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #393 on: October 01, 2017, 11:17:20 PM »
Invested in my first ICO. It was painless. I feel like I am on the ground floor of an amazon, microsoft, or pets.bomb. I am ready for moon or total loss. So exciting. I still rather have a highly diversified crytpo ETF that spreads out the risks.

You can’t “invest” in an ICO cause you don’t get equity. You get speculation tokens you hope will appreciate. It’s no where near getting in ground floor of an Amazon


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GuitarStv

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #394 on: October 02, 2017, 07:50:14 AM »
I didn't invest at Google IPO because I didn't quite understand how it all worked.I hate the feeling I have now looking at what could have been.

The mind is kinda selective though.  You remember Google because they were the winner.  There were a lot of losers, and picking the winner was not easy to do:


runbikerun

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #395 on: October 02, 2017, 09:40:54 AM »
For perspective: if you compare Google's share price post-IPO and Bitcoin's price from the point at which it reached a dollar, you can see that Bitcoin is growing in price about eight to ten times as fast as Google. Whether that's indicative of limitless potential or an impending collapse is up to the observer.

PDXTabs

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #396 on: October 02, 2017, 09:44:20 AM »
The mind is kinda selective though.  You remember Google because they were the winner.  There were a lot of losers, and picking the winner was not easy to do...

That's a very good point. I loved Alta Vista. Google attacked a fortified hill and won.

EDIT- Actually, the fought (at least) a two front battle with Alta Vista and Yahoo.

maizeman

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #397 on: October 02, 2017, 10:30:50 AM »
Speaking of attacking fortified hills and winning.

"Itís a selective retirement," Richard explained, "a retirement from boring s**t."

My source code & my journal

jmecklenborg

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #398 on: October 02, 2017, 01:59:38 PM »
Google came along at the moment when Yahoo blew $3 billion buying out Mark Cuban for something that went absolutely nowhere. Later, Yahoo stayed alive because of its lucky investment in Alibaba. 

Switch a few things around back in 1996-97 (someone buys a condo in the same association as someone else, or something like that) and the history of the internet as we know it would be quite different.  That's why early investors are more lucky than good.  And not only do they have to buy the right stock, they have to hold it for a decade or more. 

effigy98

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #399 on: October 02, 2017, 01:59:52 PM »
Invested in my first ICO. It was painless. I feel like I am on the ground floor of an amazon, microsoft, or pets.bomb. I am ready for moon or total loss. So exciting. I still rather have a highly diversified crytpo ETF that spreads out the risks.

You canít ďinvestĒ in an ICO cause you donít get equity. You get speculation tokens you hope will appreciate. Itís no where near getting in ground floor of an Amazon


If you say so. Tell me how I could have invested in amazon like companies months or years before normal investments withouut being a VC funder with millions of dollars at stake? I think you are missing the usefulness of ICO's for the little investor.