Author Topic: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion  (Read 48915 times)

maizeman

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #300 on: August 31, 2017, 08:18:18 PM »
What I do is go here (https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/neo/), click on the currency I am interested in, then on "markets" to find the places where that currency is being traded. In many cases it may be easier to buy bitcoins with USD with whichever exchange works best for you, then move the bitcoins to whatever site has active trading in the actual currency you want to buy.
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OneCoolCat

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #301 on: August 31, 2017, 09:46:20 PM »
Any ideas as to why Litecoin is pushing higher?  I bought exactly one Litecoin for about $25 back in May and it's now at $65.  Obviously, I wish I had bought more, since the Ethereum tokens I bought as part of the same round of purchasing have barely budged.

Litecoin is just highly undervalued IMO. Same technology as Bitcoin but faster block times, bigger blocks, cheaper transaction fees...etc.

The same could be said about just about every other cryptocurrency.

Hey man, you must be new to the whole sphere. There are few coins that are as fast as Litecoin right now. The only one that would edge it out is a private coin like XRP, possibly Dash and the GOAT (Ethereum).

Do a transaction with UBIQ (still love the platform) and let me know how long it takes to get 25 transactions.

You misunderstand.  I replied just about every other crypto has faster block times, bigger blocks, cheaper transaction fees than BTC.

I am new.
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Hvillian

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #302 on: September 01, 2017, 07:20:35 AM »
I'm using coinbase for ETH
I'm in the U.S.
Is there a good place that buys and sells all of the cryptocurrency with usd ?


I also use coinbase to deposit/convert $USD into BTC, ETH, or LTC, then send some of those to Bittrex to buy some of the other coins.  I have been able to find most coins that I am interested on there, and have had no major problems.  Just be careful to transfer the correct currency into the correct wallet.

robdwny

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #303 on: September 01, 2017, 09:40:03 AM »
I'm using coinbase for ETH
I'm in the U.S.
Is there a good place that buys and sells all of the cryptocurrency with usd ?


I also use coinbase to deposit/convert $USD into BTC, ETH, or LTC, then send some of those to Bittrex to buy some of the other coins.  I have been able to find most coins that I am interested on there, and have had no major problems.  Just be careful to transfer the correct currency into the correct wallet.

I have not done this yet, if I buy BTC
And it goes up in price. I take it and and buy another Côin from bittrex.
Will coinbase send me paperwork on profits ?
I'm just confused on how you keep track of all this if I was buying 3-4 different coins. 


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Tonyahu

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #304 on: September 01, 2017, 03:24:10 PM »
Any ideas as to why Litecoin is pushing higher?  I bought exactly one Litecoin for about $25 back in May and it's now at $65.  Obviously, I wish I had bought more, since the Ethereum tokens I bought as part of the same round of purchasing have barely budged.

Litecoin is just highly undervalued IMO. Same technology as Bitcoin but faster block times, bigger blocks, cheaper transaction fees...etc.

The same could be said about just about every other cryptocurrency.

Hey man, you must be new to the whole sphere. There are few coins that are as fast as Litecoin right now. The only one that would edge it out is a private coin like XRP, possibly Dash and the GOAT (Ethereum).

Do a transaction with UBIQ (still love the platform) and let me know how long it takes to get 25 transactions.

You misunderstand.  I replied just about every other crypto has faster block times, bigger blocks, cheaper transaction fees than BTC.

I am new.


ahhh I did misunderstand but I would still disagree in part. Either way, all good!

Glad you are on board, these % gains are once in a lifetime. I see this market slowing down volatility wise by 2018/2019 so now is the time to cash in...

phil22

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #305 on: September 01, 2017, 05:56:56 PM »
just speculation, but a lawyer employed by the firm representing the Winklevoss bitcoin ETF will now be in charge of ETF approvals at the SEC.  this could explain the recent bitcoin price surge (just about to reach $5k).

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-08-04/getting-that-etf-approved-may-grow-easier-as-sec-shakes-up-team

http://www.investmentnews.com/article/20170831/FREE/170839978/sec-names-dalia-blass-director-of-investment-management

ETFs are another step in the right direction for legitimizing cryptocurrencies and giving everyday investors access to them.  i expect a huge bubble to form when this happens, whether it's sooner or later.  long-term crypto holders will be fine but i think a lot of folks new to cryptos will get burned.

OneCoolCat

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #306 on: September 01, 2017, 08:17:09 PM »
I'm using coinbase for ETH
I'm in the U.S.
Is there a good place that buys and sells all of the cryptocurrency with usd ?


I also use coinbase to deposit/convert $USD into BTC, ETH, or LTC, then send some of those to Bittrex to buy some of the other coins.  I have been able to find most coins that I am interested on there, and have had no major problems.  Just be careful to transfer the correct currency into the correct wallet.

I have not done this yet, if I buy BTC
And it goes up in price. I take it and and buy another CŰin from bittrex.
Will coinbase send me paperwork on profits ?
I'm just confused on how you keep track of all this if I was buying 3-4 different coins. 


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There is a way to convert fiat to crypto for 0% fees on gdax but you have to wait 4-7 days for your bank deposit to clear.  You deposit cash from your bank account and place a limit order on BTC, LTC or ETH.  Transfer the crypto to an exchange and trade it for whatever coin you want.  I generally do LTC because it has less transaction fees.  Pretty much regret exchanging my LTC now though...
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jmecklenborg

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #307 on: September 02, 2017, 02:01:05 AM »
just speculation, but a lawyer employed by the firm representing the Winklevoss bitcoin ETF will now be in charge of ETF approvals at the SEC.  this could explain the recent bitcoin price surge (just about to reach $5k).

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-08-04/getting-that-etf-approved-may-grow-easier-as-sec-shakes-up-team

http://www.investmentnews.com/article/20170831/FREE/170839978/sec-names-dalia-blass-director-of-investment-management

ETFs are another step in the right direction for legitimizing cryptocurrencies and giving everyday investors access to them.  i expect a huge bubble to form when this happens, whether it's sooner or later.  long-term crypto holders will be fine but i think a lot of folks new to cryptos will get burned.

I think this is a really bad idea.  A huge bubble will form and then burst.  All of the Wall Street guys can smell that bubble and want a piece of the action, so pressure to legitimize cyrpto as an asset class is very real.  But there is absolutely zero SEC or other regulation of crypto so I don't see how they could ever permit it. 


robdwny

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #308 on: September 02, 2017, 06:43:49 AM »
I decided to to buy some cryptocurrency I started through Coinbase and bought ETH
Now I'm trying to buy some other coins through bittrex. 
The biggest thing I'm trying to do is not leave the coins in either exchange. I am not the best with computers.
I'm just trying to find the easiest way to move it and what is the cost to take it out of these exchanges and into a wallet
Thanks for the  help


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maizeman

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #309 on: September 03, 2017, 03:13:46 PM »
I didn't feel like updating my mining experiment this weekend since at this point the currency fluctuations of bitcoin are overpowering any income from mining. I idled my more energy intensive mining rig, but am still currently bringing in ~$100/month and paying $~20/month in extra electricity.

So instead here are a couple of updates to the cryptocurrency market capitalization and market capitalization graphs. Currencies selected based on a mixture of overall marketshare and how much I see them discussed in this and other forums.





You can find versions of the first graph lots of places, but to me the second one is more interesting in a lot of ways. Since early August when the bitcoin cash fork occurred, the overall market cap of this basket of cyptocurrencies is up something like 85%, but if you look at the market composition over that same period, it's actually been quite stable, which suggests that people are dumping money into all the currencies roughly proportionately to their market caps (a lot like how index funds invest), or alternatively maybe for a lot of these cyptos, the currency:BTC exchanges rates are more "sticky" than currency:USD exchange rates, so their dollar prices are increasing to at least maintain bitcoin exchange rate parity.
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flyersman

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #310 on: September 03, 2017, 11:35:48 PM »
I decided to to buy some cryptocurrency I started through Coinbase and bought ETH
Now I'm trying to buy some other coins through bittrex. 
The biggest thing I'm trying to do is not leave the coins in either exchange. I am not the best with computers.
I'm just trying to find the easiest way to move it and what is the cost to take it out of these exchanges and into a wallet
Thanks for the  help


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Same question.

How easy is it to buy and sell a Bitcoin or Ethereum?

For instance, let's say BTC is $4k each and ETH is $500.

Can I just go on coinbase with $10k and purchase 2 Bitcoins and 4 units of Ether?

Then transfer them to an external hardrive wallet and disconnect it from my PC.

Then 1 year from now the prices double (BTC - $4k each / ETH - $1000). How easy it to sell and walk about with $20k (10k profit)

phil22

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #311 on: September 04, 2017, 09:42:50 AM »
I decided to to buy some cryptocurrency I started through Coinbase and bought ETH
...
I'm just trying to find the easiest way to move it and what is the cost to take it out of these exchanges and into a wallet

there are fees involved when buying/selling on coinbase, but it's not a big deal if you're only buying occasionally.  the ETH fee for transferring your ETH to an offline wallet for storage is minimal.

Same question.

How easy is it to buy and sell a Bitcoin or Ethereum?

For instance, let's say BTC is $4k each and ETH is $500.

Can I just go on coinbase with $10k and purchase 2 Bitcoins and 4 units of Ether?

Then transfer them to an external hardrive wallet and disconnect it from my PC.

Then 1 year from now the prices double (BTC - $4k each / ETH - $1000). How easy it to sell and walk about with $20k (10k profit)

yes you've got the basics down.  you will need to prove your identity to coinbase first though, but you can do simple identity verification for the amount you're looking to buy.  withdrawing to a wallet on an external hard drive is probably fine for keeping the coins safe for a year.  for storing coins longer than that there are a bunch of options out there depending on your needs and risk tolerance.

to sell on coinbase you'd simply have to send the coins back to your coinbase wallet, wait for the transaction to confirm, and then click 'sell' and withdraw the USD to your bank account.

you'd then need to report the USD gains as capital gains for your taxes.  keep your own records for dates/prices/quantities bought and sold and then make sure the tax documentation coinbase provides matches your records.

robdwny

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #312 on: September 04, 2017, 11:39:00 AM »
I decided to to buy some cryptocurrency I started through Coinbase and bought ETH
...
I'm just trying to find the easiest way to move it and what is the cost to take it out of these exchanges and into a wallet

there are fees involved when buying/selling on coinbase, but it's not a big deal if you're only buying occasionally.  the ETH fee for transferring your ETH to an offline wallet for storage is minimal.

Same question.

How easy is it to buy and sell a Bitcoin or Ethereum?

For instance, let's say BTC is $4k each and ETH is $500.

Can I just go on coinbase with $10k and purchase 2 Bitcoins and 4 units of Ether?

Then transfer them to an external hardrive wallet and disconnect it from my PC.

Then 1 year from now the prices double (BTC - $4k each / ETH - $1000). How easy it to sell and walk about with $20k (10k profit)

yes you've got the basics down.  you will need to prove your identity to coinbase first though, but you can do simple identity verification for the amount you're looking to buy.  withdrawing to a wallet on an external hard drive is probably fine for keeping the coins safe for a year.  for storing coins longer than that there are a bunch of options out there depending on your needs and risk tolerance.

to sell on coinbase you'd simply have to send the coins back to your coinbase wallet, wait for the transaction to confirm, and then click 'sell' and withdraw the USD to your bank account.

you'd then need to report the USD gains as capital gains for your taxes.  keep your own records for dates/prices/quantities bought and sold and then make sure the tax documentation coinbase provides matches your records.

Perfect explanation
The one that is getting me the biggest problems understanding because I'm not the best with computers. It's how to protect the different altcoins in a wallet or cold storage.  It just seems to be going over my head because you can't put them all in one place. I believe every coin has its own wallet I'm just not sure if they are safe to leave there also. 


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maizeman

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #313 on: September 04, 2017, 12:46:12 PM »
So it sounds like China has decided to also ban ICOs (https://www.cnbc.com/2017/09/04/chinese-icos-china-bans-fundraising-through-initial-coin-offerings-report-says.html). Given that these are already generally illegal in the USA if you actually are getting a share of profits/decision making power (essentially anything that behaves like stock) that's probably going to limit the market for new companies trying to get their initial funding by launching a cryptocurrency. Although I guess they are still legal in the EU?*

*No an expert, please consult your local laws.
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phil22

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #314 on: September 04, 2017, 12:50:39 PM »
The one that is getting me the biggest problems understanding because I'm not the best with computers. It's how to protect the different altcoins in a wallet or cold storage.  It just seems to be going over my head because you can't put them all in one place. I believe every coin has its own wallet I'm just not sure if they are safe to leave there also. 

i haven't used one, but for a non-technical person i think the Ledger Nano S (https://www.ledgerwallet.com/products/ledger-nano-s) is maybe the best option.  looks like it works as secure storage for several altcoins (and also allows you to make transactions).  keep the included recovery sheet secure in a separate location from the Ledger itself.

effigy98

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #315 on: September 05, 2017, 09:45:25 AM »
So I am hitting my limits on CoinBase and I want more. I heard GDAX was a good place to buy with lower fees once you get comfortable with wallets but I think I want to diversify into my 401k.

Now I am not sure this is a good approach to buying bitcoin, but for me I am willing to take the risk. I have most investments in tax sheltered accounts which would be great for trading bitcoin in. Unfortuntaly the only game in town right now seems like GBTC you can buy with fidelity. It seems to have a .0928 backing for every share kind of like IAU or GLD for gold, so at right nows price the value of BTC they hold is worth $405.88 a share and it costs about $750 a share. Huge premium.

I am going to take the plunge anyway and here is why.
  • I am trading with pretax money, and no taxes on the trades
  • No other options in my tax advatage accounts that I know of to hold btc
  • It is uncorrelated to all my other assets which makes my golden butterfly portofolio overall potentially better
  • The price could look inexpensive 5 years from now, good chance of amazon like growth

If another better priced fund comes a long that is a risk for the premium I am paying and could take some losses, but I will just switch to the other fund. I rather have an ETF that tracks the top coins, but this is what we have right now.

mcampbell

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #316 on: September 05, 2017, 09:51:31 AM »
Bitcoin Investment Trust (GBTC) ... Bitcoin Investment Trust (GBTC) is trading at a greater than 100% premium to its net asset value and charges a whopping 2% fee, 

I think I would just buy post tax


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maizeman

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #317 on: September 05, 2017, 10:18:32 AM »
At that point couldn't they be issuing additional shares, use the money from the new issue to buy more bitcoins and essentially be printing free money for themselves? I agree with mcampbell, pass on this.

From what I could find the weekly limit at coinbase is $10k/week (so you could invest more than half a million over the course of a year).
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effigy98

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #318 on: September 05, 2017, 10:33:41 AM »
I did all the verification on coinbase and still only at 5k

lifeanon269

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #319 on: September 05, 2017, 12:33:34 PM »
I did all the verification on coinbase and still only at 5k

My weekly limit when using a US checking account is currently $15k ($6k for credit card purchases). It has been that amount for quite some time, so I think that might be the max. The more I purchased with them, the more they increased it over time. So long as you did all the verification, just keep making purchases and it will gradually keep going up.

Tonyahu

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #320 on: September 05, 2017, 02:01:07 PM »
So I am hitting my limits on CoinBase and I want more. I heard GDAX was a good place to buy with lower fees once you get comfortable with wallets but I think I want to diversify into my 401k.

Now I am not sure this is a good approach to buying bitcoin, but for me I am willing to take the risk. I have most investments in tax sheltered accounts which would be great for trading bitcoin in. Unfortuntaly the only game in town right now seems like GBTC you can buy with fidelity. It seems to have a .0928 backing for every share kind of like IAU or GLD for gold, so at right nows price the value of BTC they hold is worth $405.88 a share and it costs about $750 a share. Huge premium.

I am going to take the plunge anyway and here is why.
  • I am trading with pretax money, and no taxes on the trades
  • No other options in my tax advatage accounts that I know of to hold btc
  • It is uncorrelated to all my other assets which makes my golden butterfly portofolio overall potentially better
  • The price could look inexpensive 5 years from now, good chance of amazon like growth

If another better priced fund comes a long that is a risk for the premium I am paying and could take some losses, but I will just switch to the other fund. I rather have an ETF that tracks the top coins, but this is what we have right now.

Check out Gemini.com, buy and hold the coins yourself, off the exchanges. Buying through a Trust or ETF defeats the entire purpose of this, not even considering the premium.

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #321 on: September 05, 2017, 03:54:06 PM »
If you really want to do this, have you looked into using a self directed IRA to buy cryptocurrency?

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phil22

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #322 on: September 05, 2017, 06:16:50 PM »
i agree with everyone else.  avoid GBTC.

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #323 on: September 06, 2017, 07:00:39 AM »
Most of my money is currently in Bitcoin and Ethereum. But lately, it's has been really tough (especially yesterday) to stay calm with my positions. I have almost all the time the urge to check it, how both BTC and Ethereum are doing, it's almost like some sort of addiction :D Even though I have invested them because I believe in the long term rise.
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effigy98

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #324 on: September 06, 2017, 02:40:17 PM »
If you really want to do this, have you looked into using a self directed IRA to buy cryptocurrency?

Yes it looks like a huge pain, to do it right, you have to setup an LLC company. There are even weird rules with some you cannot hold bitcoin even outside your account if you are invested in self directed IRA fund (like BIT). I also max all retirement accounts (52k) at the start of the year so I do not have additional funds to add to another account and I am not sure how to split accounts. GBTC is quick and easy. I do not look at it as a direct 1 to 1 BTC to USD, I look at it as a hedge against my other assets since it has very little correlation and hope the volitility will increase returns.

Edit: Here is an article I thought was interesting about another uncorrelated asset. Maybe I read the black swan and PP books too recently again and am getting too crazy with uncorrelated assets.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4047264-bitcoins-correlation-financial-assets
« Last Edit: September 07, 2017, 02:34:42 PM by effigy98 »

Tonyahu

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #325 on: September 06, 2017, 04:12:38 PM »
Most of my money is currently in Bitcoin and Ethereum. But lately, it's has been really tough (especially yesterday) to stay calm with my positions. I have almost all the time the urge to check it, how both BTC and Ethereum are doing, it's almost like some sort of addiction :D Even though I have invested them because I believe in the long term rise.

Yeah, it can be addictive. I can feel that way at times, 80-90% of my net worth is tied up in Crypto-Currencies and I have a portfolio consisting of 20+ companies / coins which I keep up to date with. I am effectively a part-time analyst.

It's worth it, but I wonder if this is how stock pickers felt during the the early 1900s on Wall Street
« Last Edit: September 06, 2017, 04:15:17 PM by Tonyahu »

maizeman

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #326 on: September 06, 2017, 04:55:43 PM »
I can feel that way at times, 80-90% of my net worth is tied up in Crypto-Currencies and I have a portfolio consisting of 20+ companies / coins which I keep up to date with. I am effectively a part-time analyst.

It's worth it, but I wonder if this is how stock pickers felt during the the early 1900s on Wall Street

Hi Tonyahu, if you don't mind sharing I'm curious is the 80-90% of your net worth in crypto reflects you making a huge bet with most of your liquid savings, or a small bet a couple of years ago (or more) which has just grown to the point where it dwarfs all your other assets.
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effigy98

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #327 on: September 06, 2017, 05:11:45 PM »
I decided to invest in solar (another form of mining) to feed the crypto mining farm as I have maxed my electrical house system. I found it is very reasonable and has about a 7 year payback period in WA state (even with the clouds) in part helped by Senate Bill 5939 which passed in July which gives you dividends for your solar generation and you get to keep the power.

jmecklenborg

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #328 on: September 06, 2017, 05:26:05 PM »
Robert Shiller calls bitcoin a classic bubble:
https://qz.com/1067557/robert-shiller-wrote-the-book-on-bubbles-he-says-the-best-example-right-now-is-bitcoin/

From some of the comments here we see the sort of emotion that drives bubbles.  I have a hard time believing that we're still going to be talking about bitcoin specifically (blockchains yes and perhaps one or more cryptocurriencies) in 20 years, which makes the business of putting it in an IRA a bit ridiculous. 

lifeanon269

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #329 on: September 07, 2017, 06:27:33 AM »
Robert Shiller calls bitcoin a classic bubble:
https://qz.com/1067557/robert-shiller-wrote-the-book-on-bubbles-he-says-the-best-example-right-now-is-bitcoin/

From some of the comments here we see the sort of emotion that drives bubbles.  I have a hard time believing that we're still going to be talking about bitcoin specifically (blockchains yes and perhaps one or more cryptocurriencies) in 20 years, which makes the business of putting it in an IRA a bit ridiculous.

I don't think you can go into a thread talking about crypto-currencies and use the exuberance there as evidence that there is a bubble. Nor do I think Shiller's evidence of the same when he talks with students regarding bitcoin as evidence of a bubble. Bubbles can pop for quite a number of reasons. The irrational exuberance idea relates to when there are no more possible buyers after a speculative frenzy to feed the market further into the up trend. The dotcom bubble popped because everyone was invested in dotcom stocks that had no true value. Everyone was investing and purchasing real-estate up to 2007-2008. At some point if those investments fail (bad businesses) or there is some mechanism at play that causes a market forcing (defaulted debt), then you end up having the value of those investments plummet or people pull their money out in droves. We couldn't be any further from that with bitcoin. Stepping back from this thread and the media, take a look around yourself in the real world and you'll see that there are actually so few people that are putting their money into Bitcoin at the moment.

I did see a bubble qualities in a lot of the bogus ICOs that were created that really we not going to provide any real long term value and there are a lot of tokens out there that don't really have a purpose. So in the greater crypto-currency realm I could see some potential for a bubble, but it is so small that if it were to pop, it would hardly be felt. Also, China's recent ruling on ICOs will go a long way toward preventing that bubble from truly forming. The recent pull back in bitcoin due to that decision was good since it helped the market correct now to prevent a much larger correction later down the road.

Whenever I see opponents of bitcoin make claims of bubbles, they rarely ever do it with any sort of deep insight into the market. The article you linked to showed how Robert Shiller really has very little understanding of bitcoin or the crypto-currency world and he provides about zero evidence as to why he thinks it might be a bubble. Even more telling is the fact that he doesn't even know what an ICO is and has never heard of the term before. Then he immediately goes on to give his "wisdom" by claiming that it is a bubble when he literally just heard of the term two seconds prior. Laughable at best.

jmecklenborg

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #330 on: September 07, 2017, 12:08:47 PM »
I agree that we are not in the sort of bubble territory that tech stocks were in the 90s because many people have still barely heard about bitcoin and don't know where to buy it.  So there is definitely room for cryptocurrency and token speculation to build.  But no one has been able to prove that Bitcoin is actually filling a need or will be of real use at some point.  I think the token prices are so easily manipulated that we're essentially back in the 1800s with salesman selling railroad stock certificates to farmers, then absconding with the money.   




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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #331 on: September 07, 2017, 01:20:48 PM »
If you are in a bubble, what percent of people know about/are investing is a good metric to judge how close you are to having the bubble pop.

But it isn't a particularly good metric to distinguish between what is and isn't a bubble. For example many people know about and invest in the stock market, yet it is not a bubble. OTOH the Rhodium bubble of 2008 certainly WAS a bubble even though the vast majority of people didn't participate and probably couldn't even point to the element on a periodic table.
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effigy98

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #332 on: September 07, 2017, 02:16:34 PM »
I have a hard time believing that we're still going to be talking about bitcoin specifically (blockchains yes and perhaps one or more cryptocurriencies) in 20 years, which makes the business of putting it in an IRA a bit ridiculous.

It is risky for sure, but 9 years is a long time in the technology world, it has endured longer then most tech companies. Do people hold Google, Facebook, etc in thier IRA?

shotgunwilly

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #333 on: September 07, 2017, 02:53:23 PM »
If you are in a bubble, what percent of people know about/are investing is a good metric to judge how close you are to having the bubble pop.

But it isn't a particularly good metric to distinguish between what is and isn't a bubble. For example many people know about and invest in the stock market, yet it is not a bubble. OTOH the Rhodium bubble of 2008 certainly WAS a bubble even though the vast majority of people didn't participate and probably couldn't even point to the element on a periodic table.

I agree. So, I'm curious of your opinion Maizeman... where are we at?

surfhb

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #334 on: September 07, 2017, 04:44:41 PM »
You guys realize this is an early retirement forum right?    What's the point of FIRE if you loose your ass speculating on Crypto currency?

Don't speculate....invest!    Learn from the past.

Then again, I doubt most on this thread know anything about what a bear market is....too young, most of you.   ;)
« Last Edit: September 07, 2017, 05:02:31 PM by surfhb »

jmecklenborg

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #335 on: September 07, 2017, 05:07:43 PM »

It is risky for sure, but 9 years is a long time in the technology world, it has endured longer then most tech companies. Do people hold Google, Facebook, etc in thier IRA?

Some do, but those are stocks, not tokens.  Stocks are regulated.  Tokens are not.  Real currencies are regulated.  Cryptos are not. 

The success or failure of these currencies and tokens will be totally random.  Basically nothing remains of the massively-hyped 1999 internet companies.  The people who got wealthy during the 90s tech boom like Mark Cuban sold at the right time without realizing it.  Those who bought high never recovered (Yahoo laid out close to $10 billion for Cuban's company and for Geocities...those acquisitions made zero money...nascent Google filled the void and left Yahoo in its dust). 

Few things from the 90s have survived.  So that first-mover advantage wasn't much of one.  Bitcoin has first-mover advantage and Ethereum is the first major token.  Google was about the 7th or 8th search engine, all of the rest are gone.  Facebook came after Myspace which came after Friendster. 
 

phil22

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #336 on: September 07, 2017, 06:52:26 PM »
Some do, but those are stocks, not tokens.  Stocks are regulated.  Tokens are not.  Real currencies are regulated.  Cryptos are not. 

regulation has nothing to do with how well or poorly an asset performs.  national currencies and stocks have plenty of problems.

Quote
The success or failure of these currencies and tokens will be totally random.

it won't be random.  as you say, it's an unregulated free market and the best cryptocurrencies will win.

Quote
Few things from the 90s have survived.

many foundational technologies from the 90s, 80s, and 70s have survived, including the internet and public key cryptography which cryptocurrencies are based on.
« Last Edit: September 07, 2017, 06:53:58 PM by phil22 »

jmecklenborg

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #337 on: September 07, 2017, 08:08:48 PM »
regulation has nothing to do with how well or poorly an asset performs.  national currencies and stocks have plenty of problems.

Of course it does.  All of the things the SEC does (or your county auditor for real estate transactions) is a response to the abuses that existed before those regulations were enacted.  Any call you hear for an "elimination of regulations" is usually a shyster who recognizes how he can swindle someone when that seemingly onerous regulation is lifted. 

We've already seen various short-term surges and falls in prices thanks to hoaxes, but that's really just the beginning.     

Quote
The success or failure of these currencies and tokens will be totally random.

it won't be random.  as you say, it's an unregulated free market and the best cryptocurrencies will win.
[/quote]

Well Litecoin, et al., are all "better" than bitcoin, yet bitcoin reigns supreme, several years after these better competitors appeared.  There are endless examples throughout history of a lesser product winning over a better one.  Better salesmen and better luck.  Bitcoin has the Winklevoss Twins and other high-profile champions.  Litecoin does not. 


Quote
many foundational technologies from the 90s, 80s, and 70s have survived, including the internet and public key cryptography which cryptocurrencies are based on.

Blockchain will be around for a long time. We're obviously going to see some changes in how digital banking transactions are carried out. The specific stew of cryptocurrencies that are attracting speculation at the moment probably won't survive for more than 10 years. 

maizeman

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #338 on: September 07, 2017, 08:32:44 PM »
If you are in a bubble, what percent of people know about/are investing is a good metric to judge how close you are to having the bubble pop.

But it isn't a particularly good metric to distinguish between what is and isn't a bubble. For example many people know about and invest in the stock market, yet it is not a bubble. OTOH the Rhodium bubble of 2008 certainly WAS a bubble even though the vast majority of people didn't participate and probably couldn't even point to the element on a periodic table.

I agree. So, I'm curious of your opinion Maizeman... where are we at?

I'm honestly not sure at all. I've been following bitcoin off and on since stories about it started showing up on slashdot 6-7 years ago as a curiosity, and had an actual bitcoin wallet since before the mid-2013 price bubble burst. And I'm pretty sure I'm not better at predicting what the price is going to do than you'd get from flipping a coin. But it's awfully fun to watch.

Helps that the only money I've put into mining/crypto was drawn from my entertainment spending, not investment.
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mcampbell

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #339 on: September 08, 2017, 03:26:30 AM »
So filecoin just raised $250M USD and kept another $250M USD in premined coins for themselves, for a premarket, precustomer product. If this doesn't scream bubble I'm not sure what would. Read the analysis below


https://tokeneconomy.co/the-analysis-filecoin-doesnt-want-you-to-read-e60d5243f17c

shotgunwilly

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #340 on: September 08, 2017, 06:30:22 AM »
If you are in a bubble, what percent of people know about/are investing is a good metric to judge how close you are to having the bubble pop.

But it isn't a particularly good metric to distinguish between what is and isn't a bubble. For example many people know about and invest in the stock market, yet it is not a bubble. OTOH the Rhodium bubble of 2008 certainly WAS a bubble even though the vast majority of people didn't participate and probably couldn't even point to the element on a periodic table.

I agree. So, I'm curious of your opinion Maizeman... where are we at?

I'm honestly not sure at all. I've been following bitcoin off and on since stories about it started showing up on slashdot 6-7 years ago as a curiosity, and had an actual bitcoin wallet since before the mid-2013 price bubble burst. And I'm pretty sure I'm not better at predicting what the price is going to do than you'd get from flipping a coin. But it's awfully fun to watch.

Helps that the only money I've put into mining/crypto was drawn from my entertainment spending, not investment.

I too have owned Bitcoin since before the 2013 "bubble."  There's really no telling what Bitcoin can do, BUT that doesn't mean I can't have an opinion :) .... I'm leaning towards Bitcoin itself failing* at some point. (When? Much harder to tell.)  I believe it has flaws that will make it be pushed aside for an improved "digital currency."   What I'm really interested in, are blockchains that solve real world problems like, for example, data authentication without having to trust a central organization.

It's wading through all of the hype, scams, and bubbles that's going to be the challenge.

As far as the entire crypto-currency space, while we will go through hype cycles and "bubbles" bursting and corrections, (as seen when Bitcoin skyrocketed to $22 and then a bubble burst and when Bitcoin skyrocketed to $1200 and a bubble burst and when Bitcoin skyrocketed to $4900 and then....) the total market cap of cryptocurrencies WILL continue to go up in time.

*By failing I do not mean the protocol itself.  I mean it has problems with scaling and it will become obsolete to an improved blockchain coin designed to be a digital currency.  It would probably still remain more as a souvenir type thing.
« Last Edit: September 08, 2017, 06:40:28 AM by shotgunwilly »

maizeman

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #341 on: September 08, 2017, 07:11:50 AM »

I too have owned Bitcoin since before the 2013 "bubble."  There's really no telling what Bitcoin can do, BUT that doesn't mean I can't have an opinion :) .... I'm leaning towards Bitcoin itself failing* at some point. (When? Much harder to tell.)  I believe it has flaws that will make it be pushed aside for an improved "digital currency."   What I'm really interested in, are blockchains that solve real world problems like, for example, data authentication without having to trust a central organization.

It's wading through all of the hype, scams, and bubbles that's going to be the challenge.

As far as the entire crypto-currency space, while we will go through hype cycles and "bubbles" bursting and corrections, (as seen when Bitcoin skyrocketed to $22 and then a bubble burst and when Bitcoin skyrocketed to $1200 and a bubble burst and when Bitcoin skyrocketed to $4900 and then....) the total market cap of cryptocurrencies WILL continue to go up in time.

*By failing I do not mean the protocol itself.  I mean it has problems with scaling and it will become obsolete to an improved blockchain coin designed to be a digital currency.  It would probably still remain more as a souvenir type thing.

I agree with you that there will likely be some sort of cryptocurrency widely used to facilitate payments in the future. Bitcoin definitely has scaling problems* but also the advantage of significant network effects from its first mover position. A lot of other currencies have significant advantages at a protocol level, and its likely even further improved currencies will emerge over time. That could be enough to let them overtake and replace (like facebook supplanted myspace), or they could fail despite being technically superior (like betamax failed to supplant VHS).

Speaking of hype and scams and bubbles, the whole ICO mess is getting a bit embarrassing though. In principle I liked the idea of tracking ownership of shares or things that behave like shares using a blockchain but because the way SEC regulations are set up, most ICO tokens don't represent a share of profits or rights to vote in company decisions, but essentially just pre-sales of hypothetical products. More like kickstarter if you could trade your rights to the hypothetical future delivery of a laser razor on the secondary market and most people were buying the hypothetical right to a laser razor** only in the hope that someone else would pay more for it in the future.

*Theoretically bitcoin also the potential to update the protocol over time to address them, although as we have seen in the last few months this tends to be rather messy in practice.

**An actual kickstarter campaign. No, nobody received any laser razors. Yes, it's really fun to say laser razor.
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waltworks

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #342 on: September 08, 2017, 09:03:22 AM »
The sort of standard mushy definition of a bubble is when people are buying something because they heard it's something everyone is buying, when they don't actually have any use for it or really know what it is.

There are all sorts of secondary symptoms - companies popping up to sell various similar products (or the concept of a similar product), financial companies and "analysts" marketing only vaguely related services, and these days, lots of uncritically positive chatter (this time it's different!) about the product on social media.

Tulips, Beanie babies, crappy condos in Sacramento in 2005, etc. Same symptoms every time.

Schiller is right - it's got all the classic bubble signs. That's not to say it won't hit $100,000 or something, or that the underlying math/tech isn't a good idea that will be with us for a long time, but the crypto currency world certainly looks like a bubble right now.

I'd personally bet on either a government or big international company (or group of companies) entering with a currency (actually designed well for the purpose of exchanging goods and services), backed by a big publicly known entity, and marketed as such, and that currency displacing everything already out there.

-W

Tonyahu

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #343 on: September 08, 2017, 11:16:44 AM »
The beautiful thing about this chat is it will be a good historical placeholder. In a few years when these technologies are thriving and taking over those who took the risk will be rewarded heavily and those who nay-sayed without doing their due diligence will see what they missed.

So filecoin just raised $250M USD and kept another $250M USD in premined coins for themselves, for a premarket, precustomer product. If this doesn't scream bubble I'm not sure what would. Read the analysis below


https://tokeneconomy.co/the-analysis-filecoin-doesnt-want-you-to-read-e60d5243f17c

There is definitely a bubble in terms of start up ICO's, but something like Ethereum or IOTA is very undervalued.


I'd personally bet on either a government or big international company (or group of companies) entering with a currency (actually designed well for the purpose of exchanging goods and services), backed by a big publicly known entity, and marketed as such, and that currency displacing everything already out there.

-W

Looks like you have yet to do much research on Ethereum :]
« Last Edit: September 08, 2017, 11:20:45 AM by Tonyahu »

mcampbell

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #344 on: September 08, 2017, 12:06:23 PM »
The beautiful thing about this chat is it will be a good historical placeholder. In a few years when these technologies are thriving and taking over those who took the risk will be rewarded heavily and those who nay-sayed without doing their due diligence will see what they missed.

So filecoin just raised $250M USD and kept another $250M USD in premined coins for themselves, for a premarket, precustomer product. If this doesn't scream bubble I'm not sure what would. Read the analysis below


https://tokeneconomy.co/the-analysis-filecoin-doesnt-want-you-to-read-e60d5243f17c

Reward? $250M for zero equity. The ICOs seem like no reward. There may be reward in Bitcoin or Ethereum.


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GuitarStv

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #345 on: September 08, 2017, 12:12:48 PM »
Quote
The success or failure of these currencies and tokens will be totally random.

it won't be random.  as you say, it's an unregulated free market and the best cryptocurrencies will win.

Yeah.  The unregulated free market always picks the best technology to win.  That's why betamax destoyed VHS.  Wait . . .

effigy98

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #346 on: September 08, 2017, 12:30:47 PM »

It is risky for sure, but 9 years is a long time in the technology world, it has endured longer then most tech companies. Do people hold Google, Facebook, etc in thier IRA?

Some do, but those are stocks, not tokens.  Stocks are regulated.  Tokens are not.  Real currencies are regulated.  Cryptos are not. 

The success or failure of these currencies and tokens will be totally random.  Basically nothing remains of the massively-hyped 1999 internet companies.  The people who got wealthy during the 90s tech boom like Mark Cuban sold at the right time without realizing it.  Those who bought high never recovered (Yahoo laid out close to $10 billion for Cuban's company and for Geocities...those acquisitions made zero money...nascent Google filled the void and left Yahoo in its dust). 

Few things from the 90s have survived.  So that first-mover advantage wasn't much of one.  Bitcoin has first-mover advantage and Ethereum is the first major token.  Google was about the 7th or 8th search engine, all of the rest are gone.  Facebook came after Myspace which came after Friendster. 
 

I agree with what you are saying if we are only talking about direct comparision with dotcom stocks. I would like to point out those examples you pointed out did not last 9 years... like I said, 9 years in the tech world is a very long time.  I am not sure this is worth arguing about however. Unlike the dotcom bubble, this is a unique scenario because the assets are not like dotcom stocks only, they are also commodities and currencies. We really do not have a nice box to relate this phenomenon. We are only able to draw partial conclusions.

Tonyahu

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #347 on: September 08, 2017, 12:46:29 PM »
To clarify, I do believe that 70%+ of these currencies will fail but we still have much larger valuations to hit before any "bubble talk" can be had. Eventually, yes, the bubble (2019-2020ish) will deflate and only those with unique value propositions will remain.

https://hackernoon.com/why-everyone-missed-the-most-mind-blowing-feature-of-cryptocurrency-860c3f25f1fb

shotgunwilly

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #348 on: September 08, 2017, 01:20:06 PM »
To clarify, I do believe that 70%+ of these currencies will fail but we still have much larger valuations to hit before any "bubble talk" can be had. Eventually, yes, the bubble (2019-2020ish) will deflate and only those with unique value propositions will remain.

https://hackernoon.com/why-everyone-missed-the-most-mind-blowing-feature-of-cryptocurrency-860c3f25f1fb

You are making some absolutely wild assumptions that no one on this Earth could humanly know, to the point that it's starting to make the opposing view's case even stronger.

And I'm for Blockchain technology.   

phil22

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #349 on: September 08, 2017, 05:12:54 PM »
regulation has nothing to do with how well or poorly an asset performs.  national currencies and stocks have plenty of problems.
Of course it does.  All of the things the SEC does (or your county auditor for real estate transactions) is a response to the abuses that existed before those regulations were enacted.  Any call you hear for an "elimination of regulations" is usually a shyster who recognizes how he can swindle someone when that seemingly onerous regulation is lifted. 

do you not believe in free markets?  there are many examples of inferior products that only exist because they are protected by regulation and lobbying.  one example is the crumbly old slow internet-averse global financial system.  another example is the fossil fuel automotive industry.

Quote
Quote
The success or failure of these currencies and tokens will be totally random.
it won't be random.  as you say, it's an unregulated free market and the best cryptocurrencies will win.
Well Litecoin, et al., are all "better" than bitcoin, yet bitcoin reigns supreme, several years after these better competitors appeared.  There are endless examples throughout history of a lesser product winning over a better one.  Better salesmen and better luck.  Bitcoin has the Winklevoss Twins and other high-profile champions.  Litecoin does not. 

bitcoin was invented first, luck has nothing to do with it.  litecoin (and other coins forked from bitcoin's source code) are cheap clones backed by way weaker mining networks.  that's why bitcoin reigns supreme.  litecoin was a failed attempt to make an ASIC-proof coin.

Blockchain will be around for a long time. We're obviously going to see some changes in how digital banking transactions are carried out. The specific stew of cryptocurrencies that are attracting speculation at the moment probably won't survive for more than 10 years. 

bitcoin's been running for almost nine years now.  you mean one more year or ten more?

Quote
The success or failure of these currencies and tokens will be totally random.

it won't be random.  as you say, it's an unregulated free market and the best cryptocurrencies will win.

Yeah.  The unregulated free market always picks the best technology to win.  That's why betamax destoyed VHS.  Wait . . .

and VHS, DVD, and BluRay have all been abandoned in favor of streaming and DVRs.