Author Topic: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion  (Read 180972 times)

CanuckExpat

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #300 on: September 05, 2017, 03:54:06 PM »
If you really want to do this, have you looked into using a self directed IRA to buy cryptocurrency?


phil22

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #301 on: September 05, 2017, 06:16:50 PM »
i agree with everyone else.  avoid GBTC.

Jeferson

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #302 on: September 06, 2017, 07:00:39 AM »
Most of my money is currently in Bitcoin and Ethereum. But lately, it's has been really tough (especially yesterday) to stay calm with my positions. I have almost all the time the urge to check it, how both BTC and Ethereum are doing, it's almost like some sort of addiction :D Even though I have invested them because I believe in the long term rise.

Tonyahu

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #303 on: September 06, 2017, 04:12:38 PM »
Most of my money is currently in Bitcoin and Ethereum. But lately, it's has been really tough (especially yesterday) to stay calm with my positions. I have almost all the time the urge to check it, how both BTC and Ethereum are doing, it's almost like some sort of addiction :D Even though I have invested them because I believe in the long term rise.

Yeah, it can be addictive. I can feel that way at times, 80-90% of my net worth is tied up in Crypto-Currencies and I have a portfolio consisting of 20+ companies / coins which I keep up to date with. I am effectively a part-time analyst.

It's worth it, but I wonder if this is how stock pickers felt during the the early 1900s on Wall Street
« Last Edit: September 06, 2017, 04:15:17 PM by Tonyahu »

maizeman

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #304 on: September 06, 2017, 04:55:43 PM »
I can feel that way at times, 80-90% of my net worth is tied up in Crypto-Currencies and I have a portfolio consisting of 20+ companies / coins which I keep up to date with. I am effectively a part-time analyst.

It's worth it, but I wonder if this is how stock pickers felt during the the early 1900s on Wall Street

Hi Tonyahu, if you don't mind sharing I'm curious is the 80-90% of your net worth in crypto reflects you making a huge bet with most of your liquid savings, or a small bet a couple of years ago (or more) which has just grown to the point where it dwarfs all your other assets.

jmecklenborg

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #305 on: September 06, 2017, 05:26:05 PM »
Robert Shiller calls bitcoin a classic bubble:
https://qz.com/1067557/robert-shiller-wrote-the-book-on-bubbles-he-says-the-best-example-right-now-is-bitcoin/

From some of the comments here we see the sort of emotion that drives bubbles.  I have a hard time believing that we're still going to be talking about bitcoin specifically (blockchains yes and perhaps one or more cryptocurriencies) in 20 years, which makes the business of putting it in an IRA a bit ridiculous. 

lifeanon269

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #306 on: September 07, 2017, 06:27:33 AM »
Robert Shiller calls bitcoin a classic bubble:
https://qz.com/1067557/robert-shiller-wrote-the-book-on-bubbles-he-says-the-best-example-right-now-is-bitcoin/

From some of the comments here we see the sort of emotion that drives bubbles.  I have a hard time believing that we're still going to be talking about bitcoin specifically (blockchains yes and perhaps one or more cryptocurriencies) in 20 years, which makes the business of putting it in an IRA a bit ridiculous.

I don't think you can go into a thread talking about crypto-currencies and use the exuberance there as evidence that there is a bubble. Nor do I think Shiller's evidence of the same when he talks with students regarding bitcoin as evidence of a bubble. Bubbles can pop for quite a number of reasons. The irrational exuberance idea relates to when there are no more possible buyers after a speculative frenzy to feed the market further into the up trend. The dotcom bubble popped because everyone was invested in dotcom stocks that had no true value. Everyone was investing and purchasing real-estate up to 2007-2008. At some point if those investments fail (bad businesses) or there is some mechanism at play that causes a market forcing (defaulted debt), then you end up having the value of those investments plummet or people pull their money out in droves. We couldn't be any further from that with bitcoin. Stepping back from this thread and the media, take a look around yourself in the real world and you'll see that there are actually so few people that are putting their money into Bitcoin at the moment.

I did see a bubble qualities in a lot of the bogus ICOs that were created that really we not going to provide any real long term value and there are a lot of tokens out there that don't really have a purpose. So in the greater crypto-currency realm I could see some potential for a bubble, but it is so small that if it were to pop, it would hardly be felt. Also, China's recent ruling on ICOs will go a long way toward preventing that bubble from truly forming. The recent pull back in bitcoin due to that decision was good since it helped the market correct now to prevent a much larger correction later down the road.

Whenever I see opponents of bitcoin make claims of bubbles, they rarely ever do it with any sort of deep insight into the market. The article you linked to showed how Robert Shiller really has very little understanding of bitcoin or the crypto-currency world and he provides about zero evidence as to why he thinks it might be a bubble. Even more telling is the fact that he doesn't even know what an ICO is and has never heard of the term before. Then he immediately goes on to give his "wisdom" by claiming that it is a bubble when he literally just heard of the term two seconds prior. Laughable at best.

jmecklenborg

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #307 on: September 07, 2017, 12:08:47 PM »
I agree that we are not in the sort of bubble territory that tech stocks were in the 90s because many people have still barely heard about bitcoin and don't know where to buy it.  So there is definitely room for cryptocurrency and token speculation to build.  But no one has been able to prove that Bitcoin is actually filling a need or will be of real use at some point.  I think the token prices are so easily manipulated that we're essentially back in the 1800s with salesman selling railroad stock certificates to farmers, then absconding with the money.   




maizeman

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #308 on: September 07, 2017, 01:20:48 PM »
If you are in a bubble, what percent of people know about/are investing is a good metric to judge how close you are to having the bubble pop.

But it isn't a particularly good metric to distinguish between what is and isn't a bubble. For example many people know about and invest in the stock market, yet it is not a bubble. OTOH the Rhodium bubble of 2008 certainly WAS a bubble even though the vast majority of people didn't participate and probably couldn't even point to the element on a periodic table.

shotgunwilly

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #309 on: September 07, 2017, 02:53:23 PM »
If you are in a bubble, what percent of people know about/are investing is a good metric to judge how close you are to having the bubble pop.

But it isn't a particularly good metric to distinguish between what is and isn't a bubble. For example many people know about and invest in the stock market, yet it is not a bubble. OTOH the Rhodium bubble of 2008 certainly WAS a bubble even though the vast majority of people didn't participate and probably couldn't even point to the element on a periodic table.

I agree. So, I'm curious of your opinion Maizeman... where are we at?

surfhb

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #310 on: September 07, 2017, 04:44:41 PM »
You guys realize this is an early retirement forum right?    What's the point of FIRE if you loose your ass speculating on Crypto currency?

Don't speculate....invest!    Learn from the past.

Then again, I doubt most on this thread know anything about what a bear market is....too young, most of you.   ;)
« Last Edit: September 07, 2017, 05:02:31 PM by surfhb »

jmecklenborg

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #311 on: September 07, 2017, 05:07:43 PM »

It is risky for sure, but 9 years is a long time in the technology world, it has endured longer then most tech companies. Do people hold Google, Facebook, etc in thier IRA?

Some do, but those are stocks, not tokens.  Stocks are regulated.  Tokens are not.  Real currencies are regulated.  Cryptos are not. 

The success or failure of these currencies and tokens will be totally random.  Basically nothing remains of the massively-hyped 1999 internet companies.  The people who got wealthy during the 90s tech boom like Mark Cuban sold at the right time without realizing it.  Those who bought high never recovered (Yahoo laid out close to $10 billion for Cuban's company and for Geocities...those acquisitions made zero money...nascent Google filled the void and left Yahoo in its dust). 

Few things from the 90s have survived.  So that first-mover advantage wasn't much of one.  Bitcoin has first-mover advantage and Ethereum is the first major token.  Google was about the 7th or 8th search engine, all of the rest are gone.  Facebook came after Myspace which came after Friendster. 
 

phil22

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #312 on: September 07, 2017, 06:52:26 PM »
Some do, but those are stocks, not tokens.  Stocks are regulated.  Tokens are not.  Real currencies are regulated.  Cryptos are not. 

regulation has nothing to do with how well or poorly an asset performs.  national currencies and stocks have plenty of problems.

Quote
The success or failure of these currencies and tokens will be totally random.

it won't be random.  as you say, it's an unregulated free market and the best cryptocurrencies will win.

Quote
Few things from the 90s have survived.

many foundational technologies from the 90s, 80s, and 70s have survived, including the internet and public key cryptography which cryptocurrencies are based on.
« Last Edit: September 07, 2017, 06:53:58 PM by phil22 »

jmecklenborg

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #313 on: September 07, 2017, 08:08:48 PM »
regulation has nothing to do with how well or poorly an asset performs.  national currencies and stocks have plenty of problems.

Of course it does.  All of the things the SEC does (or your county auditor for real estate transactions) is a response to the abuses that existed before those regulations were enacted.  Any call you hear for an "elimination of regulations" is usually a shyster who recognizes how he can swindle someone when that seemingly onerous regulation is lifted. 

We've already seen various short-term surges and falls in prices thanks to hoaxes, but that's really just the beginning.     

Quote
The success or failure of these currencies and tokens will be totally random.

it won't be random.  as you say, it's an unregulated free market and the best cryptocurrencies will win.
[/quote]

Well Litecoin, et al., are all "better" than bitcoin, yet bitcoin reigns supreme, several years after these better competitors appeared.  There are endless examples throughout history of a lesser product winning over a better one.  Better salesmen and better luck.  Bitcoin has the Winklevoss Twins and other high-profile champions.  Litecoin does not. 


Quote
many foundational technologies from the 90s, 80s, and 70s have survived, including the internet and public key cryptography which cryptocurrencies are based on.

Blockchain will be around for a long time. We're obviously going to see some changes in how digital banking transactions are carried out. The specific stew of cryptocurrencies that are attracting speculation at the moment probably won't survive for more than 10 years. 

maizeman

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #314 on: September 07, 2017, 08:32:44 PM »
If you are in a bubble, what percent of people know about/are investing is a good metric to judge how close you are to having the bubble pop.

But it isn't a particularly good metric to distinguish between what is and isn't a bubble. For example many people know about and invest in the stock market, yet it is not a bubble. OTOH the Rhodium bubble of 2008 certainly WAS a bubble even though the vast majority of people didn't participate and probably couldn't even point to the element on a periodic table.

I agree. So, I'm curious of your opinion Maizeman... where are we at?

I'm honestly not sure at all. I've been following bitcoin off and on since stories about it started showing up on slashdot 6-7 years ago as a curiosity, and had an actual bitcoin wallet since before the mid-2013 price bubble burst. And I'm pretty sure I'm not better at predicting what the price is going to do than you'd get from flipping a coin. But it's awfully fun to watch.

Helps that the only money I've put into mining/crypto was drawn from my entertainment spending, not investment.

mcampbell

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #315 on: September 08, 2017, 03:26:30 AM »
So filecoin just raised $250M USD and kept another $250M USD in premined coins for themselves, for a premarket, precustomer product. If this doesn't scream bubble I'm not sure what would. Read the analysis below


https://tokeneconomy.co/the-analysis-filecoin-doesnt-want-you-to-read-e60d5243f17c

shotgunwilly

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #316 on: September 08, 2017, 06:30:22 AM »
If you are in a bubble, what percent of people know about/are investing is a good metric to judge how close you are to having the bubble pop.

But it isn't a particularly good metric to distinguish between what is and isn't a bubble. For example many people know about and invest in the stock market, yet it is not a bubble. OTOH the Rhodium bubble of 2008 certainly WAS a bubble even though the vast majority of people didn't participate and probably couldn't even point to the element on a periodic table.

I agree. So, I'm curious of your opinion Maizeman... where are we at?

I'm honestly not sure at all. I've been following bitcoin off and on since stories about it started showing up on slashdot 6-7 years ago as a curiosity, and had an actual bitcoin wallet since before the mid-2013 price bubble burst. And I'm pretty sure I'm not better at predicting what the price is going to do than you'd get from flipping a coin. But it's awfully fun to watch.

Helps that the only money I've put into mining/crypto was drawn from my entertainment spending, not investment.

I too have owned Bitcoin since before the 2013 "bubble."  There's really no telling what Bitcoin can do, BUT that doesn't mean I can't have an opinion :) .... I'm leaning towards Bitcoin itself failing* at some point. (When? Much harder to tell.)  I believe it has flaws that will make it be pushed aside for an improved "digital currency."   What I'm really interested in, are blockchains that solve real world problems like, for example, data authentication without having to trust a central organization.

It's wading through all of the hype, scams, and bubbles that's going to be the challenge.

As far as the entire crypto-currency space, while we will go through hype cycles and "bubbles" bursting and corrections, (as seen when Bitcoin skyrocketed to $22 and then a bubble burst and when Bitcoin skyrocketed to $1200 and a bubble burst and when Bitcoin skyrocketed to $4900 and then....) the total market cap of cryptocurrencies WILL continue to go up in time.

*By failing I do not mean the protocol itself.  I mean it has problems with scaling and it will become obsolete to an improved blockchain coin designed to be a digital currency.  It would probably still remain more as a souvenir type thing.
« Last Edit: September 08, 2017, 06:40:28 AM by shotgunwilly »

maizeman

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #317 on: September 08, 2017, 07:11:50 AM »

I too have owned Bitcoin since before the 2013 "bubble."  There's really no telling what Bitcoin can do, BUT that doesn't mean I can't have an opinion :) .... I'm leaning towards Bitcoin itself failing* at some point. (When? Much harder to tell.)  I believe it has flaws that will make it be pushed aside for an improved "digital currency."   What I'm really interested in, are blockchains that solve real world problems like, for example, data authentication without having to trust a central organization.

It's wading through all of the hype, scams, and bubbles that's going to be the challenge.

As far as the entire crypto-currency space, while we will go through hype cycles and "bubbles" bursting and corrections, (as seen when Bitcoin skyrocketed to $22 and then a bubble burst and when Bitcoin skyrocketed to $1200 and a bubble burst and when Bitcoin skyrocketed to $4900 and then....) the total market cap of cryptocurrencies WILL continue to go up in time.

*By failing I do not mean the protocol itself.  I mean it has problems with scaling and it will become obsolete to an improved blockchain coin designed to be a digital currency.  It would probably still remain more as a souvenir type thing.

I agree with you that there will likely be some sort of cryptocurrency widely used to facilitate payments in the future. Bitcoin definitely has scaling problems* but also the advantage of significant network effects from its first mover position. A lot of other currencies have significant advantages at a protocol level, and its likely even further improved currencies will emerge over time. That could be enough to let them overtake and replace (like facebook supplanted myspace), or they could fail despite being technically superior (like betamax failed to supplant VHS).

Speaking of hype and scams and bubbles, the whole ICO mess is getting a bit embarrassing though. In principle I liked the idea of tracking ownership of shares or things that behave like shares using a blockchain but because the way SEC regulations are set up, most ICO tokens don't represent a share of profits or rights to vote in company decisions, but essentially just pre-sales of hypothetical products. More like kickstarter if you could trade your rights to the hypothetical future delivery of a laser razor on the secondary market and most people were buying the hypothetical right to a laser razor** only in the hope that someone else would pay more for it in the future.

*Theoretically bitcoin also the potential to update the protocol over time to address them, although as we have seen in the last few months this tends to be rather messy in practice.

**An actual kickstarter campaign. No, nobody received any laser razors. Yes, it's really fun to say laser razor.

waltworks

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #318 on: September 08, 2017, 09:03:22 AM »
The sort of standard mushy definition of a bubble is when people are buying something because they heard it's something everyone is buying, when they don't actually have any use for it or really know what it is.

There are all sorts of secondary symptoms - companies popping up to sell various similar products (or the concept of a similar product), financial companies and "analysts" marketing only vaguely related services, and these days, lots of uncritically positive chatter (this time it's different!) about the product on social media.

Tulips, Beanie babies, crappy condos in Sacramento in 2005, etc. Same symptoms every time.

Schiller is right - it's got all the classic bubble signs. That's not to say it won't hit $100,000 or something, or that the underlying math/tech isn't a good idea that will be with us for a long time, but the crypto currency world certainly looks like a bubble right now.

I'd personally bet on either a government or big international company (or group of companies) entering with a currency (actually designed well for the purpose of exchanging goods and services), backed by a big publicly known entity, and marketed as such, and that currency displacing everything already out there.

-W

Tonyahu

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #319 on: September 08, 2017, 11:16:44 AM »
The beautiful thing about this chat is it will be a good historical placeholder. In a few years when these technologies are thriving and taking over those who took the risk will be rewarded heavily and those who nay-sayed without doing their due diligence will see what they missed.

So filecoin just raised $250M USD and kept another $250M USD in premined coins for themselves, for a premarket, precustomer product. If this doesn't scream bubble I'm not sure what would. Read the analysis below


https://tokeneconomy.co/the-analysis-filecoin-doesnt-want-you-to-read-e60d5243f17c

There is definitely a bubble in terms of start up ICO's, but something like Ethereum or IOTA is very undervalued.


I'd personally bet on either a government or big international company (or group of companies) entering with a currency (actually designed well for the purpose of exchanging goods and services), backed by a big publicly known entity, and marketed as such, and that currency displacing everything already out there.

-W

Looks like you have yet to do much research on Ethereum :]
« Last Edit: September 08, 2017, 11:20:45 AM by Tonyahu »

mcampbell

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #320 on: September 08, 2017, 12:06:23 PM »
The beautiful thing about this chat is it will be a good historical placeholder. In a few years when these technologies are thriving and taking over those who took the risk will be rewarded heavily and those who nay-sayed without doing their due diligence will see what they missed.

So filecoin just raised $250M USD and kept another $250M USD in premined coins for themselves, for a premarket, precustomer product. If this doesn't scream bubble I'm not sure what would. Read the analysis below


https://tokeneconomy.co/the-analysis-filecoin-doesnt-want-you-to-read-e60d5243f17c

Reward? $250M for zero equity. The ICOs seem like no reward. There may be reward in Bitcoin or Ethereum.


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GuitarStv

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #321 on: September 08, 2017, 12:12:48 PM »
Quote
The success or failure of these currencies and tokens will be totally random.

it won't be random.  as you say, it's an unregulated free market and the best cryptocurrencies will win.

Yeah.  The unregulated free market always picks the best technology to win.  That's why betamax destoyed VHS.  Wait . . .

Tonyahu

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #322 on: September 08, 2017, 12:46:29 PM »
To clarify, I do believe that 70%+ of these currencies will fail but we still have much larger valuations to hit before any "bubble talk" can be had. Eventually, yes, the bubble (2019-2020ish) will deflate and only those with unique value propositions will remain.

https://hackernoon.com/why-everyone-missed-the-most-mind-blowing-feature-of-cryptocurrency-860c3f25f1fb

shotgunwilly

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #323 on: September 08, 2017, 01:20:06 PM »
To clarify, I do believe that 70%+ of these currencies will fail but we still have much larger valuations to hit before any "bubble talk" can be had. Eventually, yes, the bubble (2019-2020ish) will deflate and only those with unique value propositions will remain.

https://hackernoon.com/why-everyone-missed-the-most-mind-blowing-feature-of-cryptocurrency-860c3f25f1fb

You are making some absolutely wild assumptions that no one on this Earth could humanly know, to the point that it's starting to make the opposing view's case even stronger.

And I'm for Blockchain technology.   

phil22

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #324 on: September 08, 2017, 05:12:54 PM »
regulation has nothing to do with how well or poorly an asset performs.  national currencies and stocks have plenty of problems.
Of course it does.  All of the things the SEC does (or your county auditor for real estate transactions) is a response to the abuses that existed before those regulations were enacted.  Any call you hear for an "elimination of regulations" is usually a shyster who recognizes how he can swindle someone when that seemingly onerous regulation is lifted. 

do you not believe in free markets?  there are many examples of inferior products that only exist because they are protected by regulation and lobbying.  one example is the crumbly old slow internet-averse global financial system.  another example is the fossil fuel automotive industry.

Quote
Quote
The success or failure of these currencies and tokens will be totally random.
it won't be random.  as you say, it's an unregulated free market and the best cryptocurrencies will win.
Well Litecoin, et al., are all "better" than bitcoin, yet bitcoin reigns supreme, several years after these better competitors appeared.  There are endless examples throughout history of a lesser product winning over a better one.  Better salesmen and better luck.  Bitcoin has the Winklevoss Twins and other high-profile champions.  Litecoin does not. 

bitcoin was invented first, luck has nothing to do with it.  litecoin (and other coins forked from bitcoin's source code) are cheap clones backed by way weaker mining networks.  that's why bitcoin reigns supreme.  litecoin was a failed attempt to make an ASIC-proof coin.

Blockchain will be around for a long time. We're obviously going to see some changes in how digital banking transactions are carried out. The specific stew of cryptocurrencies that are attracting speculation at the moment probably won't survive for more than 10 years. 

bitcoin's been running for almost nine years now.  you mean one more year or ten more?

Quote
The success or failure of these currencies and tokens will be totally random.

it won't be random.  as you say, it's an unregulated free market and the best cryptocurrencies will win.

Yeah.  The unregulated free market always picks the best technology to win.  That's why betamax destoyed VHS.  Wait . . .

and VHS, DVD, and BluRay have all been abandoned in favor of streaming and DVRs.

GuitarStv

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #325 on: September 08, 2017, 05:58:00 PM »
Quote
The success or failure of these currencies and tokens will be totally random.

it won't be random.  as you say, it's an unregulated free market and the best cryptocurrencies will win.

Yeah.  The unregulated free market always picks the best technology to win.  That's why betamax destoyed VHS.  Wait . . .

and VHS, DVD, and BluRay have all been abandoned in favor of streaming and DVRs.

My point was that there exist many examples in the past where the best stuff available was passed over for more inferior competitors by the unregulated free market.

phil22

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #326 on: September 08, 2017, 09:18:39 PM »
right, but only temporarily until superior competitors came along.  it appears random in the short term, but it's not random.  if you zoom out you can clearly see that VHS, the temporary "winner," is long gone and deservedly so.

GuitarStv

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #327 on: September 11, 2017, 07:31:21 AM »
right, but only temporarily until superior competitors came along.  it appears random in the short term, but it's not random.  if you zoom out you can clearly see that VHS, the temporary "winner," is long gone and deservedly so.

Right.  But figuring out which technology will be the winner is not possible at the time that it matters for investing . . . because sometimes the market chooses the worst option.

Tonyahu

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #328 on: September 13, 2017, 12:33:06 PM »
regulation has nothing to do with how well or poorly an asset performs.  national currencies and stocks have plenty of problems.
Of course it does.  All of the things the SEC does (or your county auditor for real estate transactions) is a response to the abuses that existed before those regulations were enacted.  Any call you hear for an "elimination of regulations" is usually a shyster who recognizes how he can swindle someone when that seemingly onerous regulation is lifted. 

do you not believe in free markets?  there are many examples of inferior products that only exist because they are protected by regulation and lobbying.  one example is the crumbly old slow internet-averse global financial system.  another example is the fossil fuel automotive industry.

Quote
Quote
The success or failure of these currencies and tokens will be totally random.
it won't be random.  as you say, it's an unregulated free market and the best cryptocurrencies will win.
Well Litecoin, et al., are all "better" than bitcoin, yet bitcoin reigns supreme, several years after these better competitors appeared.  There are endless examples throughout history of a lesser product winning over a better one.  Better salesmen and better luck.  Bitcoin has the Winklevoss Twins and other high-profile champions.  Litecoin does not. 

bitcoin was invented first, luck has nothing to do with it.  litecoin (and other coins forked from bitcoin's source code) are cheap clones backed by way weaker mining networks.  that's why bitcoin reigns supreme.  litecoin was a failed attempt to make an ASIC-proof coin.


Furthermore, those who claim "Litecoin is faster" are short sighted.

Sure it's faster when experiencing 10% of the network stress, but if LTC experienced the same transaction volume of BTC it would be much slower, have higher fees...etc.


To clarify, I do believe that 70%+ of these currencies will fail but we still have much larger valuations to hit before any "bubble talk" can be had. Eventually, yes, the bubble (2019-2020ish) will deflate and only those with unique value propositions will remain.

https://hackernoon.com/why-everyone-missed-the-most-mind-blowing-feature-of-cryptocurrency-860c3f25f1fb

You are making some absolutely wild assumptions that no one on this Earth could humanly know, to the point that it's starting to make the opposing view's case even stronger.

And I'm for Blockchain technology.   

Which assumptions in particular?

Let's get them clarified so we can revisit them in the future to see if what I said panned out.
« Last Edit: September 13, 2017, 12:35:37 PM by Tonyahu »

waltworks

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #329 on: September 13, 2017, 02:40:41 PM »
I thought this was an interesting article in the NYT. I knew bitcoin was primarily a Chinese thing, but I didn't realize just how much of it is being done in China.

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/13/business/bitcoin-mine-china.html?rref=collection%2Fsectioncollection%2Fbusiness&action=click&contentCollection=business&region=rank&module=package&version=highlights&contentPlacement=1&pgtype=sectionfront&_r=0

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surfhb

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #330 on: September 13, 2017, 03:29:13 PM »
right, but only temporarily until superior competitors came along.  it appears random in the short term, but it's not random.  if you zoom out you can clearly see that VHS, the temporary "winner," is long gone and deservedly so.

Right.  But figuring out which technology will be the winner is not possible at the time that it matters for investing . . . because sometimes the market chooses the worst option.

Exactly.    I once invested thousands of dollars in a HD-DVD authoring system only to see Blu-Ray win the battle.   The only reason BD won was because Sony paid the studios to release their content on BD ONLY.    Leaving small time producers like myself priced out of the market.   

Saskatchewstachian

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #331 on: September 13, 2017, 04:55:44 PM »
Apologies if I missed this earlier in the thread but looking to gather thoughts on investing in GBTC (Bitcoin Investment Trust).

It seems like it would be a good vehicle to gain exposure to bitcoin without having to complete things like setting up a wallet, getting registered on an exchange,etc. Instead it can trade OTC directly in your brokerage account.

Am I missing a main downfall of using GBTC instead of directly buying BTC?

maizeman

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #332 on: September 13, 2017, 05:10:57 PM »
The downfall of this is that currently GBTC trades at a 70%-90% premium over the value of the bitcoin assets it hold. So buying GBTC would be like paying $2,560/oz for gold while gold is currently trading for $1,350/oz.

phil22

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #333 on: September 13, 2017, 05:25:35 PM »
i'll add that with GBTC you never see the private keys of the underlying bitcoin, so you don't know that it actually exists, and this defeats the purpose of bitcoin.  the rule of thumb is that if you don't have exclusive ownership of the private keys you don't own the bitcoin.  you might not care about this if you just want to make a quick buck.

if a different bitcoin blockchain fork takes the lead a month from now, or a year from now, or whatever, will you still own what is considered to be "bitcoin" or will you own worthless coins on the dead blockchain?  you don't have to worry about this if you own the private keys before the fork.

it may be a worthwhile gamble if your goal is to make a quick buck, not if you actually want to own bitcoin long term.
« Last Edit: September 13, 2017, 05:29:01 PM by phil22 »

powskier

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #334 on: September 14, 2017, 11:21:26 PM »
I keep my BTC and LTC on a Trezor wallet and ETH on a web based wallet via Trezor. But I just picked up a few Monero through Kraken and am not sure what to do with them. Any ideas?

A lot of the crypto trading scene reminds me of aspects of the penny stock scene 15-20 years ago, except more liquidity, more volatility and 24hr trading. Can be a bit wild out there as proven by the past 6 months.

talltexan

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #335 on: September 15, 2017, 07:47:37 AM »
We watch the trading of GBTC around the office here. It's pretty entertaining when you can get a year's worth of appreciation (or decline) in a single trading day.

Truly no one seems to have any idea what this stuff is actually worth! That's a source of excitement as well as stress. But if investment is about accepting volatility in exchange for a return, I cannot see how the return would be worth the volatility here. I suppose investing 1% of your stach would be defensible. If it triples next year, you got 2% more than you'd have with gold. But that other 99% of your portfolio is giving you 9.9%/year, amiright?

lifeanon269

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #336 on: September 15, 2017, 09:15:32 AM »
Truly no one seems to have any idea what this stuff is actually worth! That's a source of excitement as well as stress. But if investment is about accepting volatility in exchange for a return, I cannot see how the return would be worth the volatility here. I suppose investing 1% of your stach would be defensible. If it triples next year, you got 2% more than you'd have with gold. But that other 99% of your portfolio is giving you 9.9%/year, amiright?

I don't think investing is about accepting volatility in exchange for a return. I think it is about accepting risk in exchange for a return. You can have a non-volatile investment that is extremely risky and vice versa you can have an extremely volatile investment that doesn't have much relative risk.

So rather than categorizing bitcoin in your investment portfolio based on its volatility, it should be categorized based on its risk/reward and how you see that fitting into your overall investment strategy. If you feel bitcoin has a lot of risk to it, then you can include that in with your other high risk/high reward investments. The portion of your overall investment profile that consists of high risk investments should be determined based on your risk tolerance.

I don't view bitcoin as risky as others might view bitcoin and I am also long on bitcoin. Therefore its short-term volatility doesn't matter much to me. I also include it as a slightly larger portion of my portfolio than others might be willing to tolerate because of my high risk tolerance. So to me, the risk is worth the reward and it has become one of my primary after-tax investment options.

I also don't think it is fair to say that nobody has any idea how much bitcoin is worth. I just think that everyone has their own different idea on how much it is worth and everyone is willing to sell their bitcoin at differing values. The same goes for just about every asset out there. Someone with a holding of gold will part with it at a certain market price while someone with the same amount of gold holdings might part with theirs at a completely different price. They value their gold differently just like everyone is valuing their bitcoin differently. It's just that there are far fewer people who own bitcoin and so these differences in valuations are felt more in the market which is why we see so much volatility.

Finally, to me, its value also comes from beyond just its price point in the market. I feel that bitcoin and the technology behind it represents a huge shift in how currency is handled by humans. I see bitcoin as revolutionary as the internet itself. Therefore I am willing to put some of my money into bitcoin based on this idea without taking into consideration any risk or reward by doing so.

talltexan

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #337 on: September 18, 2017, 08:57:42 AM »
Thanks for this well-thought-out response.

The difficulty I have with valuing bitcoin is the same difficulty I would have with any commodity: there is no apparent income stream/earnings equivalent. I'm a lot more comfortable valuing a business based on its earnings than I am valuing currency.


jmecklenborg

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #338 on: September 18, 2017, 10:16:58 AM »
I feel that bitcoin and the technology behind it represents a huge shift in how currency is handled by humans. I see bitcoin as revolutionary as the internet itself. Therefore I am willing to put some of my money into bitcoin based on this idea without taking into consideration any risk or reward by doing so.

Bitcoin is almost 10 years old.  Nobody was really talking about it being "the future" until its value started getting ridiculous in the last year.  Yeah, there was that push back in 2012 or 2013, but after the crash, it returned to being the butt of jokes.   

thenextguy

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #339 on: September 18, 2017, 10:34:37 AM »
I feel that bitcoin and the technology behind it represents a huge shift in how currency is handled by humans. I see bitcoin as revolutionary as the internet itself. Therefore I am willing to put some of my money into bitcoin based on this idea without taking into consideration any risk or reward by doing so.

Nobody was really talking about it being "the future" until its value started getting ridiculous in the last year.

I think you may have the cause and effect backwards.

lifeanon269

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #340 on: September 18, 2017, 10:47:58 AM »
Bitcoin is almost 10 years old.  Nobody was really talking about it being "the future" until its value started getting ridiculous in the last year.  Yeah, there was that push back in 2012 or 2013, but after the crash, it returned to being the butt of jokes.   

What does its age have to do with anything?

Not sure what you mean by nobody, unless you're only following bitcoin based on what the media is saying at any given moment. Why did you put "the future" in quotes? What jokes are you referring to when you say that bitcoin is the butt of them?

Bitcoin doesn't have to be used in every coffee transaction for it to be an astronomical success or for it to drastically change how currency is treated by humans across the world. At the moment, if a government enacts poor monetary policies or strict tyrannical controls of currency in any given country, there isn't much that the citizen population can do against that at the moment. Their wealth is at the complete mercy of their government. All money today must typically adhere to institutional practices which are enforced from the government down. Gold is too cumbersome to move and not freely liquid enough for the common citizen. Some of the only other options are obscure legal arrangements/loopholes to skirt around laws that usually require immense assets to take advantage and are therefore out of reach of the common citizen.

The threat of bitcoin completely changes all of this. You may think that this isn't important, but going forward, the capability of bitcoin to allow any citizen anywhere in the world to exit any economy at any time is a huge financial freedom. It is a freedom that hasn't really existed in the modern era. In this sense, bitcoin has already succeeded and it will only become more apparent as time goes on. This freedom is not dependent upon the price of bitcoin in any given market.

And that's just one of its many benefits.
« Last Edit: September 18, 2017, 10:50:16 AM by lifeanon269 »

Tonyahu

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #341 on: September 18, 2017, 11:23:57 AM »
Cheers to anyone who bought the dip last week! I didn't have any liquid fiat I was willing to use.

I keep my BTC and LTC on a Trezor wallet and ETH on a web based wallet via Trezor. But I just picked up a few Monero through Kraken and am not sure what to do with them. Any ideas?

A lot of the crypto trading scene reminds me of aspects of the penny stock scene 15-20 years ago, except more liquidity, more volatility and 24hr trading. Can be a bit wild out there as proven by the past 6 months.

www.MyMonero.Com always make sure you double check the website, there are phishing sites around.

Monero is in final testing with Ledger soon, which will open up Hardware wallet support. I expect Trezor to follow suit.

jmecklenborg

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #342 on: September 18, 2017, 11:41:10 AM »


What does its age have to do with anything?

Not sure what you mean by nobody, unless you're only following bitcoin based on what the media is saying at any given moment. Why did you put "the future" in quotes? What jokes are you referring to when you say that bitcoin is the butt of them?


Back when Bitcoin was invented, nobody was talking about the actual coins being a buy-and-hold investment.  The coins were used as currency for a time, although most of it was either tax evasion (paying bonuses in bitcoin, for example) or to buy illegal drugs.  People who heard about bitcoin but had no reason to do that stuff had no reason to figure out how to buy bitcoins, so they didn't. 

Also, the "dream" held out there that bitcoin will be a tool for the little guy is very much a be careful what you wish for situation.  There has been a dark side to all of the so-called disruptive innovations of the last decade -- downsides that blind proponents refuse to acknowledge.  Uber, airbnb, etc., have all caused as many problems as they have solved, and cryptocurrency and tokens are no different. 




lifeanon269

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #343 on: September 18, 2017, 12:26:18 PM »
Back when Bitcoin was invented, nobody was talking about the actual coins being a buy-and-hold investment.  The coins were used as currency for a time, although most of it was either tax evasion (paying bonuses in bitcoin, for example) or to buy illegal drugs.  People who heard about bitcoin but had no reason to do that stuff had no reason to figure out how to buy bitcoins, so they didn't. 

Also, the "dream" held out there that bitcoin will be a tool for the little guy is very much a be careful what you wish for situation.  There has been a dark side to all of the so-called disruptive innovations of the last decade -- downsides that blind proponents refuse to acknowledge.  Uber, airbnb, etc., have all caused as many problems as they have solved, and cryptocurrency and tokens are no different.

I am really having a hard time trying to follow the point you're trying to make. Maybe it is me, but I've reread your original post where you quoted me as well as this quote about and I don't understand what you're saying.

I agree that most of the original bitcoin owners were not looking at bitcoin as a long term investment. In fact, most early-adopters treated it as an experiment and proof of concept. I'd argue that most people who were using bitcoin in the very early days when its value was negligible were the very people who believed in the social good or technological aspect of it more than any investment property of it. If you read Satoshi's whitepaper on bitcoin, this is bitcoin's very aim.

There were certainly some inflows of nefarious activity with bitcoin that developed thereafter as usually those groups of individuals have a greater pressing need for advancements that further their capabilities than the general population. However, Homeland Security has even stated that they've found the amount of nefarious activity within bitcoin stagnate lately and that their tracking capabilities have increased.

So if the point is to state that the social bad outweighs the social good, time will tell. In my opinion though freedom will always come at cost, but I believe that there is always more good that outweighs bad in the world and therefore any freedom applied to the human population as a whole will always benefit the greater good more proportionally than it will the bad in the world.

No doubt there are always downsides to additional freedoms, I fully acknowledge that and am not blind to them. In your example, I fully realize that AirBnB has led to price increases in numerous neighborhoods that has been caused by renting specifically for the AirBnB business model.

If the point is that the bad outweighs the good, then I would certainly argue against that. Was that the point you're making? I hope I addressed the point you were talking about. If I went on a tangent completely irrelevant to your point, then I apologize.

maizeman

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #344 on: September 19, 2017, 08:52:33 PM »
Quote
China is moving forward with plans to shut down Bitcoin exchanges in the country, starting with trading platforms in key cities. All Bitcoin exchanges in Beijing and Shanghai have been ordered to submit plans for winding down their operations by 20 September. ... All exchanges are required to send regulators a detailed "risk-free" plan of how they intend to exit the market before 18:30 local time on Wednesday 20 September.

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-41320568

Now at the same time, it seems like the price of bitcoin is moving up rather than down. On September 15th it hit a recent minimum of just under $3000, and is now back up close to $4000. As I write this it's about 11 in the morning in Beijing, so in seven and a half hours their exchanges should start going dark. .... Going to be fascinating to see how this plays out!

Tonyahu

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #345 on: September 20, 2017, 05:32:39 PM »
If anyone is looking to get into a new position I would check out VTC. It should get atomic swaps with LTC by year end and then with BTC within 1-2 years. It's currently not even in the top 100 market cap but is one of the older alts. Currently trading at about 90 cents.

Fundamentals are good and team is good, HYPE hasn't hit it yet.

Cheers

waltworks

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #346 on: September 20, 2017, 05:39:49 PM »
Fundamentals are good and team is good, HYPE hasn't hit it yet.

Cheers

I'm honestly curious - what "fundamentals" do cryptocurrencies/exchanges/companies have?

-W

zuht

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #347 on: September 21, 2017, 05:49:26 PM »
I hold BTC, ETH, and XMR (Monero) in roughly equal portions -- not a lot, maybe $1,000-$1,500 in all. All of that has come from mining ETH and XMR with a combination of CPU (i7 and E5 Xeons) and GPU (1070, 480, 570s). I mined Litecoin a few years ago, but liquidated the coin and hardware quickly (made a few hundred bucks in the process). At this point, I view the mining as "buying" coin at a discount (the cost of electricity and hardware versus market price) to hold, rather than trying to make regular income by selling whatever comes in.

Of the coins I hold, they all feel a little different. Bitcoin is about as close to "fiat" as cryptocurrency gets, though it's starting to show its age. With Monero, it's all about anonymity. Ethereum is really neat in concept with the smart contracts, and that's why you see so many offshoots and so much corporate interest. As a software developer and security buff though, I feel like those smart contracts are going to end up being its biggest liability. Just like it's easy to build flashy software riddled with vulnerabilities, it's easy to create a contract riddle with vulnerabilities -- there's a heck of a lot of money one the line with the contracts though!

Blockchain tech is definitely intriguing though, and I'll keep at it until the wasted electricity costs too much to make sense. I do feel a little guilty about how much power I'm using on this hobby.

GuitarStv

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #348 on: September 21, 2017, 06:07:08 PM »
Fundamentals are good and team is good, HYPE hasn't hit it yet.

Cheers

I'm honestly curious - what "fundamentals" do cryptocurrencies/exchanges/companies have?

-W

lol

phil22

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #349 on: September 22, 2017, 03:59:02 PM »
I'm honestly curious - what "fundamentals" do cryptocurrencies/exchanges/companies have?
lol


Fundamentals are good and team is good, HYPE hasn't hit it yet.
This kind of comment is what I'd expect from a PUMP & DUMP kind of investor.  The statements made about future value have no basis.  It would be more productive if you give some review of this new coin you just bought and how it's better than others rather than a shameless pump.

agreed.  we shouldn't be doing empty sales pitches for various cryptocurrencies.  if you want to argue why a particular coin is valuable the requirement should be to defend the position you've taken with a coin with lots of posts and discussion here -- not a single one-off post.

if coin X has "atomic swaps" with coins Y and Z, why wouldn't you just buy coins Y and Z?  why would X still be valuable if Y and Z aren't?

--

as for "what fundamentals cryptocurrencies have" i think it can be broken down like:

since the code and features are in my opinion not "fundamentals," we should only be looking at the health of the community of users/miners/developers/companies for a coin, and government favorability as well.