Author Topic: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion  (Read 17865 times)

maizeman

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #200 on: July 24, 2017, 07:11:43 PM »
Decided it was about time to update the numbers on the ZEC mining experiment again.



Mining continues to make a profit even after factoring in the cost of electricity, but remains much less profitable than June. A rebound in the price of bitcoin (and to a lesser extent in the price of zcash) moved my capital gains/losses back into positive territory. Some folks had speculated that if prices stayed as low as they were in mid-July a lot of higher end nvidia cards might start showing up on ebay and hashrates for some currencies might have started to fall, but with the recent rebound (thanks in part to segwit) this seems less likely.

Apparently two major darknet marketplaces (more recent versions of silkroad) were shutdown in July one of which was turned into a honeypot by european law enforcement for some weeks beforehand, but that seems to have had much less impact on the prices of either currency than the segwit issue. I'm not sure whether to take that as a sign that legitimate commerce is driving a lot more of the demand for bitcoin than the drug trade, or that currency speculation is driving a lot more of the demand for bitcoin than actual financial transactions of any sort.

Link to the original description of the ZEC mining experiment.

Link to details of how I updated to include electrical costs (thanks CanuckExpat)
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trollwithamustache

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #201 on: July 25, 2017, 10:14:34 AM »

[/quote]

Don't hold them in coinbase. Transfer them back to a wallet where you control the private key personally before August 1st. Then in the (unlikely) event of a fork, you'll be on both sides of it instead of hoping to only be on the right side. ;-)
[/quote]

Ok, getting out of coinbase gives control and it appears the overall risk of a fork is greatly diminished.  Warning! ramble of an old guy trying to understand BTC :)

This really ties into the Tulip discussion that always goes on with BTC/Eth/lite coin/wankercoin/trollcoin ect. BTC can actually be used to conduct business right now. I compare it to PayPal. My dad doesn't accept PayPal is real money because "its not a real bank". OK fine.   I've got a paypal balance I just used to order some tools online instead of my credit card so it sure feels like real money to me. Can I use the term fungible?  With BTC I would take a haircut on fees/conversion rates but there are out there in the world retail chains taking BTC and legit places like overstocked.com taking BTC, so I don't know if I could have bought the tools but I can buy the light fixture the wife wants. This helps establish some value as a practical medium of exchange even if its not a currency or store of value. 

I don't know what BTC is intrinsically really worth right now, but I do know it trades at a value and I can both sell my BTC for that value or trade my BTC for goods I need (well, maybe want :) )  at that value.

Even if one is on the majority side of a Fork, the fork splits users and it would seem the two halves will always be worth less than the sum.

lifeanon269

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #202 on: July 25, 2017, 01:58:55 PM »
Quote from: trollwithamustache
Even if one is on the majority side of a Fork, the fork splits users and it would seem the two halves will always be worth less than the sum.

A hard fork doesn't split users, it splits miners. It may seem like a small difference, but it is technically an important detail to differentiate between. Users would end up holding the same amount of coin on both chains. Whereas the miners would be split between supporting one blockchain's rules or the other. How much value each coin has on each chain depends upon the market and how much value its users place on each chain's coin.

Also, it isn't true that the two halves would be less than their sum prior to the split. For example, after Ethereum's split, both halves were totaled to more than it was prior to the split. So users who held their keys on both chain's ended up with more money following the split simply because the market's continued to value the coins on both chains.

It has already been shown that there is plenty of room in this world for numerous crypto-currencies. So it is very likely that any split of one of these currencies could still yield enough support behind it from both miners and users to continue to exist within the marketplace. Though, generally it is in the best interest of miners to reach a consensus among the mining community. Since they're all likely trying to run a business and stay economically solvent, it behooves them to operate on a blockchain that has widespread usage and value.

NOTE: When I say "users", I mean in reference to the holder of the private key on the bitcoin blockchain. So in the case where a user keeps their bitcoin in an exchange (Coinbase), the exchange would actually own the private key on both blockchains and it would be up to the exchange whether they would want to support both blockchains or not. Whether they chose to support both chains is still irrelevant to whether or not the private/public key pair exists on the chain though. The blockchains are identical at the time of the split. Hence why it is critical in the event of a potential blockchain split that you own your private keys yourself. That way you own the coins on both chains and thus own the total value of the sum of the coins on both chains.
« Last Edit: July 25, 2017, 02:01:58 PM by lifeanon269 »

maizeman

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #203 on: July 29, 2017, 02:06:45 PM »
Random figure looking at the correlation of daily price changes across bitcoins and a bunch of the altcoins.



Some things make sense. The prices of ethereum and ethereum classic tend to move together and are also closely correlated with Dash. All three allow much faster payments than most cryptocurrencies.

Zcash and Monero (both currencies focusing on better anonymity than bitcoin) also tend to move together, but not with bytecoin (also focused on anonymity, but with some weird pre-mining stuff going on that really destroyed the currency's credibility early on).

Litecoin (the original altcoin) is tightly linked with bitcoin (the original cryptocurrency), although peercoin is in there too. Don't have a good story for that.

I don't know that this provides anything actionable and even the proposed explanations above are only "just so" stories. I've just been curious about where there are obvious "market sectors" within cryptocurrencies like there are within the stock market.
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lifeanon269

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #204 on: July 29, 2017, 06:09:44 PM »
Good analysis maizeman. It definitely makes sense that there would be price correlations between currencies in the same niche.

With SegWit inevitably coming to Bitcoin, I've been reading a lot on the Lightning Network and what it can provide. It seems like there are a ton of benefits and would really help Bitcoin scale indefinitely and do so with zero to low fees. But there are some draw backs such as possible centralization if it were to go mainstream, capital being tied up in the network, and transaction monetary size limitations. But it is a completely opt-in network and wouldn't require a change in Bitcoin itself in anyway (once SegWit activates that is). So I do think it will be good for Bitcoin in the long run since it would help it go mainstream. Much of the mainstream probably doesn't care about decentralization much and so centralized "credit unions" could help the lightning network scale and provide the capital necessary to keep many payment channels open to facilitate payments across the globe.

I thought this was a good video explaining how it works by Jackson Palmer (creator of Dogecoin).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v2Gz6d-xaVU

The original whitepaper is here:

https://lightning.network/lightning-network-paper.pdf

I could really see a tech like this competing against the likes of VISA or Mastercard.

JAYSLOL

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #205 on: July 29, 2017, 07:46:17 PM »
Wondering if someone can clear something up for me.  Bitcoin is supposed to be inherently deflationary, correct?  Presumably good as a store of wealth if that all works out, however isn't having a predominately deflationary currency (in the case of the depression, a gold-backed us dollar) a good part of what caused the Great Depression to be so severe?  Aren't we setting up what could be the largest global depression in history if Bitcoin goes mainstream and everybody hoards it because it always goes up?  Spending and real investing stop, economy tanks, causing a deflationary feedback loop making everything worse.  Thoughts? 

mxt0133

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #206 on: July 29, 2017, 08:35:38 PM »
Wondering if someone can clear something up for me.  Bitcoin is supposed to be inherently deflationary, correct?  Presumably good as a store of wealth if that all works out, however isn't having a predominately deflationary currency (in the case of the depression, a gold-backed us dollar) a good part of what caused the Great Depression to be so severe?  Aren't we setting up what could be the largest global depression in history if Bitcoin goes mainstream and everybody hoards it because it always goes up?  Spending and real investing stop, economy tanks, causing a deflationary feedback loop making everything worse.  Thoughts?

I completely agree.  How can it function as a medium of exchange if people are just going to horde it. I know that gold was an effective store of wealth and medium of exchange because at the time it was able to keep in step with productivity and creation of value.

Since bitcoin at its present state will eventually run out of new issued coins it cannot represent the creation of new value through productivity.  I for one would not be incentivized to compete for a fixed asset by working and making those who just hold more wealthy.  It just doesn't feel right.

phil22

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #207 on: July 30, 2017, 12:30:00 PM »
agreed, i think the deflationary aspect of bitcoin will limit its adoption as a medium of exchange in the long term.  i'm not too worried about a deflationary spiral or anything because unlike with gold or national currencies, a "peasants revolt" in cryptocurrencies is as easy as just creating a new currency.

i think since cryptocurrencies compete with each other, the best currency for the most people will win in the long term.  it may not be bitcoin or any other deflationary cryptocurrency.

lifeanon269

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #208 on: July 30, 2017, 05:06:12 PM »
Regarding deflation, I actually think that property of bitcoin will help its adoption as a medium of exchange. If a merchant has a choice to make a transaction in dollars or bitcoin, it ultimately comes down to the choice of whether the merchant prefers the properties of the dollar versus bitcoin. If the merchant understands that after making an exchange in bitcoin the result of that transaction will hold its value for a longer period of time, then it makes sense for the merchant to want to accept bitcoin as a payment option. If more merchants see the value in bitcoin as a payment option, then it will end up being adopted quicker in the marketplace.

On the consumer side, deflationary spirals are bad in a traditional economy because they are unexpected. But, deflation with bitcoin is expected and static. It is a property of the currency and cannot be manipulated. Therefore the concept of a traditional deflationary spiral doesn't apply to bitcoin. If someone wants a TV today, then they'll purchase it when they can afford it knowning that the next bitcoin they earn will have the same deflationary property as the one they just spent. Traditional deflationary spirals can't provide that assurance when the government controls the currency because there is no telling when the currency supply contraints will fluctuate. Therefore, currency hoarding takes place under those circumstances.

phil22

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #209 on: July 30, 2017, 07:21:38 PM »
it ultimately comes down to the choice of whether the merchant prefers the properties of the dollar versus bitcoin

that and also whether the customer would prefer to spend some bitcoin vs some fiat currency.  if they had both, i'd expect the customer to choose to spend the fiat first.  well, perhaps unless the merchant can give a substantial discount for bitcoin purchases.

--

another thing to mention WRT deflation is transaction fees.  if for example the typical household has some bitcoin miners (the "household water heater" example) then there would be some redistribution of bitcoin happening there through transaction fees and mining payouts.

also, if deflation gets out of hand then presumably the volume of transactions would shrink, which would make transactions cheaper, which would increase the velocity of money to offset some of the hoarding.

JAYSLOL

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #210 on: July 30, 2017, 07:22:11 PM »
Regarding deflation, I actually think that property of bitcoin will help its adoption as a medium of exchange. If a merchant has a choice to make a transaction in dollars or bitcoin, it ultimately comes down to the choice of whether the merchant prefers the properties of the dollar versus bitcoin. If the merchant understands that after making an exchange in bitcoin the result of that transaction will hold its value for a longer period of time, then it makes sense for the merchant to want to accept bitcoin as a payment option. If more merchants see the value in bitcoin as a payment option, then it will end up being adopted quicker in the marketplace.

On the consumer side, deflationary spirals are bad in a traditional economy because they are unexpected. But, deflation with bitcoin is expected and static. It is a property of the currency and cannot be manipulated. Therefore the concept of a traditional deflationary spiral doesn't apply to bitcoin. If someone wants a TV today, then they'll purchase it when they can afford it knowning that the next bitcoin they earn will have the same deflationary property as the one they just spent. Traditional deflationary spirals can't provide that assurance when the government controls the currency because there is no telling when the currency supply contraints will fluctuate. Therefore, currency hoarding takes place under those circumstances.

I still don't get why that couldn't happen with Bitcoin.  If it goes up consistantly and there is a limited supply, why wouldn't people hoard it?  Its not even mainstream yet and people are already hoarding it and paying exponentially higher amounts for it practically every day. 

waltworks

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #211 on: July 30, 2017, 10:40:56 PM »
Because it's really not money, it's more like electronic gold. It's designed to be hoarded, not spent.

-W

JAYSLOL

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #212 on: July 30, 2017, 11:09:59 PM »
Because it's really not money, it's more like electronic gold. It's designed to be hoarded, not spent.

-W


See, the thing is that's totally cool with me, i don't really care if people hoard an electronic asset designed to preserve wealth, i'd probably participate.  I'm also totally cool with a crypto currency designed to make digital commerce easier/cheaper/better, i'd definitely participate.  The problem comes when the asset being hoarded ALSO becomes the global mainstream currency on which commerce depends on, then it seems to me we'd be up shit creek soon after.   
« Last Edit: July 30, 2017, 11:13:11 PM by JAYSLOL »

maizeman

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #213 on: July 31, 2017, 05:43:07 AM »
Because it's really not money, it's more like electronic gold. It's designed to be hoarded, not spent.

-W


See, the thing is that's totally cool with me, i don't really care if people hoard an electronic asset designed to preserve wealth, i'd probably participate.  I'm also totally cool with a crypto currency designed to make digital commerce easier/cheaper/better, i'd definitely participate.  The problem comes when the asset being hoarded ALSO becomes the global mainstream currency on which commerce depends on, then it seems to me we'd be up shit creek soon after.   

I think that the two functions can largely co-exist at least the way things are right now.

Generally folks selling things in bitcoin don't have fixed bitcoin prices. They have fixed prices in euros or dollars or RMB or what have you. If you pay in bitcoins you send them however much of a bitcoin corresponds to the price in the local currency at that particular moment. Similarly, lots of folks paying for things in bitcoins aren't keeping a lot of bitcoin around, but go out and buy some (either personally or the program they're using to send money does it for them) depending on how much they need to spend on a particular transaction.

As long as that stays the case, the deflation of bitcoin doesn't really present any economic challenges. The deflation issue would only be a problem if contacts started specifying future payment amounts in bitcoins:

If a hypothetical person took out a mortgage where the monthly payment was 3 bitcoins a month back when bitcoin was $900/coin, that person would be in trouble right now (actually so would the bank if they made a lot o these mortgages and no one could pay them anymore).

If a cryptocurrency startup had hired a super programmer at 20 bitcoins/month hack when the price was $900/coin the startup would be in trouble right now.
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lifeanon269

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #214 on: July 31, 2017, 06:55:53 AM »
I still don't get why that couldn't happen with Bitcoin.  If it goes up consistantly and there is a limited supply, why wouldn't people hoard it?  Its not even mainstream yet and people are already hoarding it and paying exponentially higher amounts for it practically every day. 

As long as that stays the case, the deflation of bitcoin doesn't really present any economic challenges. The deflation issue would only be a problem if contacts started specifying future payment amounts in bitcoins:

If a hypothetical person took out a mortgage where the monthly payment was 3 bitcoins a month back when bitcoin was $900/coin, that person would be in trouble right now (actually so would the bank if they made a lot o these mortgages and no one could pay them anymore).

If a cryptocurrency startup had hired a super programmer at 20 bitcoins/month hack when the price was $900/coin the startup would be in trouble right now.

First, it should be noted that the rapid price increases we are seeing today with bitcoin are not related at all to deflation. Bitcoin at the moment is a very inflated currency. The increase in price has more to do with an extreme increase in demand because it is so new.

The discussion about deflation isn't relevant to bitcoin until demand has stabilized, new bitcoins are no longer created (or at at least created at a much slower pace than today), and bitcoin becomes the primary currency of society. These three 3 won't happen for a very long time. When they do happen, the value of bitcoin will rise at a slow and gradual rate, not like the rate that we're seeing today. This means that there will still be an incentive to invest that currency into businesses who would be able to turn that investment into profits better than if that currency were to just sit around idle in a wallet. At the time of this slow transition, the economy will likely contract as it adjusts, but over time it will lead to a slower growing economy that is more resilient to recessions.

If those three things do occur, then it will likely be a very slow process to get there. We're so used to the inflationary nature of our currency, that many things are just tailored to an inflationary economy. For example, as Maizeman mentioned, things like wages are designed around today's inflationary nature of our currency. Every year people receive wage increases (hopefully) to help their earnings keep pace with inflation. With a deflationary currency, we'd no longer need these wage increases annually. Naturally, lower and middle class earnings would rise with the economy instead of stagnating today relying upon our governments to increase earnings for the poor. This will provide higher buying power for people who currently lack it today.

As far as lending goes, interest rates are part of the lending process because the government manipulates those rates along with the currency supply. With a static deflationary currency, we'd no longer need interest rates when lending. Instead, if you take a loan to purchase something and that something costs 5 bitcoin, then you simply pay say 5 bitcoin back over the course of 5 years. Because the currency is deflationary in nature, the lender will make their money through the lending process simply because of the fact that the currency is deflationary, unlike today where lenders make money through interest rates. Or, in the case of borrower risk, the lender can simply measure the interest rate based on that risk without the need to adjust that rate based on the government prime rate. The borrower won't have any problem paying it back because the payments are steady as well as their wages. Nothing would really change there. The only thing that would change is no longer requiring manipulated interest rates by the government to artificially inflate the economy.

Also, because the government can no longer artificially inflate the economy through the money supply, recessions wouldn't be as common as they are today and our economy would become more resilient. This will result in less of a wealth gap because recessions lead to increasing wealth gaps in society. Combine that with a lower and middle class who's wages increase naturally and you have a much healthier financial economy and society.

These things won't happen for a long time. We're a long way off from ever being paid by our employers in bitcoin. In the mean time, prices for goods sold in bitcoin will be continued to be measured in fiat currency and thus the government will continue to control the price of goods, the monetary supply, wages, etc and bitcoin won't have much of an impact on any of that.
« Last Edit: July 31, 2017, 06:57:58 AM by lifeanon269 »

JAYSLOL

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #215 on: July 31, 2017, 07:44:13 AM »
Because it's really not money, it's more like electronic gold. It's designed to be hoarded, not spent.

-W


See, the thing is that's totally cool with me, i don't really care if people hoard an electronic asset designed to preserve wealth, i'd probably participate.  I'm also totally cool with a crypto currency designed to make digital commerce easier/cheaper/better, i'd definitely participate.  The problem comes when the asset being hoarded ALSO becomes the global mainstream currency on which commerce depends on, then it seems to me we'd be up shit creek soon after.   

I think that the two functions can largely co-exist at least the way things are right now.

Generally folks selling things in bitcoin don't have fixed bitcoin prices. They have fixed prices in euros or dollars or RMB or what have you. If you pay in bitcoins you send them however much of a bitcoin corresponds to the price in the local currency at that particular moment. Similarly, lots of folks paying for things in bitcoins aren't keeping a lot of bitcoin around, but go out and buy some (either personally or the program they're using to send money does it for them) depending on how much they need to spend on a particular transaction.

As long as that stays the case, the deflation of bitcoin doesn't really present any economic challenges. The deflation issue would only be a problem if contacts started specifying future payment amounts in bitcoins:

If a hypothetical person took out a mortgage where the monthly payment was 3 bitcoins a month back when bitcoin was $900/coin, that person would be in trouble right now (actually so would the bank if they made a lot o these mortgages and no one could pay them anymore).

If a cryptocurrency startup had hired a super programmer at 20 bitcoins/month hack when the price was $900/coin the startup would be in trouble right now.


I still don't get why that couldn't happen with Bitcoin.  If it goes up consistantly and there is a limited supply, why wouldn't people hoard it?  Its not even mainstream yet and people are already hoarding it and paying exponentially higher amounts for it practically every day. 

As long as that stays the case, the deflation of bitcoin doesn't really present any economic challenges. The deflation issue would only be a problem if contacts started specifying future payment amounts in bitcoins:

If a hypothetical person took out a mortgage where the monthly payment was 3 bitcoins a month back when bitcoin was $900/coin, that person would be in trouble right now (actually so would the bank if they made a lot o these mortgages and no one could pay them anymore).

If a cryptocurrency startup had hired a super programmer at 20 bitcoins/month hack when the price was $900/coin the startup would be in trouble right now.

First, it should be noted that the rapid price increases we are seeing today with bitcoin are not related at all to deflation. Bitcoin at the moment is a very inflated currency. The increase in price has more to do with an extreme increase in demand because it is so new.

The discussion about deflation isn't relevant to bitcoin until demand has stabilized, new bitcoins are no longer created (or at at least created at a much slower pace than today), and bitcoin becomes the primary currency of society. These three 3 won't happen for a very long time. When they do happen, the value of bitcoin will rise at a slow and gradual rate, not like the rate that we're seeing today. This means that there will still be an incentive to invest that currency into businesses who would be able to turn that investment into profits better than if that currency were to just sit around idle in a wallet. At the time of this slow transition, the economy will likely contract as it adjusts, but over time it will lead to a slower growing economy that is more resilient to recessions.

If those three things do occur, then it will likely be a very slow process to get there. We're so used to the inflationary nature of our currency, that many things are just tailored to an inflationary economy. For example, as Maizeman mentioned, things like wages are designed around today's inflationary nature of our currency. Every year people receive wage increases (hopefully) to help their earnings keep pace with inflation. With a deflationary currency, we'd no longer need these wage increases annually. Naturally, lower and middle class earnings would rise with the economy instead of stagnating today relying upon our governments to increase earnings for the poor. This will provide higher buying power for people who currently lack it today.

As far as lending goes, interest rates are part of the lending process because the government manipulates those rates along with the currency supply. With a static deflationary currency, we'd no longer need interest rates when lending. Instead, if you take a loan to purchase something and that something costs 5 bitcoin, then you simply pay say 5 bitcoin back over the course of 5 years. Because the currency is deflationary in nature, the lender will make their money through the lending process simply because of the fact that the currency is deflationary, unlike today where lenders make money through interest rates. Or, in the case of borrower risk, the lender can simply measure the interest rate based on that risk without the need to adjust that rate based on the government prime rate. The borrower won't have any problem paying it back because the payments are steady as well as their wages. Nothing would really change there. The only thing that would change is no longer requiring manipulated interest rates by the government to artificially inflate the economy.

Also, because the government can no longer artificially inflate the economy through the money supply, recessions wouldn't be as common as they are today and our economy would become more resilient. This will result in less of a wealth gap because recessions lead to increasing wealth gaps in society. Combine that with a lower and middle class who's wages increase naturally and you have a much healthier financial economy and society.

These things won't happen for a long time. We're a long way off from ever being paid by our employers in bitcoin. In the mean time, prices for goods sold in bitcoin will be continued to be measured in fiat currency and thus the government will continue to control the price of goods, the monetary supply, wages, etc and bitcoin won't have much of an impact on any of that.

Thanks both for the responses.  I do get that theres no issues with deflation as long as Bitcoin is being used as a medium of exchange between traditional currencies.  I also get that if Bitcoin ever became a primary currency for trade without other government issued currencies involved it would either be, or have to become, much more stable and slower growing than it is now.  That said, gold is about as stable as an asset can get historically, but when the US currency was backed by gold, a deflationary asset, we ran into some serious problems when the markets tanked and people preferred a deflationary currency over spending and investment.  I realize that wasn't the only reason the Great Depression was so severe, but when you compare it to the Great Recession, it's the one thing really seems to stand out

maizeman

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #216 on: July 31, 2017, 07:55:11 AM »
JAYSLOL, the only extra thing I'd add to your most recent response is that bitcoin wouldn't have to mediating transactions between people who are pricing things in traditional currencies. A good example of how to divorce fixed prices from the effects of a currency that fluctuates widely in value is the ether:gas model for pricing computer services on the ethereum network. No government issued currencies involved, but it still produces the same protection from default/inflation issues as the current bitcoin:USD model.
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bender

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #217 on: July 31, 2017, 07:31:13 PM »
I'm curious if anyone plans to buy any of the new bitcoin cash currency after the fork.  Did anyone move their bitcoins to a place that supports both versions?

maizeman

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #218 on: July 31, 2017, 07:48:39 PM »
Any wallet where you have access to your own private keys would mean you'd be able to spend on both blockchains if there really is a fork.

I looked more into the ethereum fork and it turns out that even some places like coinbase where your coins aren't stored in a wallet where you control the private key and didn't support "ethereum classic" still allowed people who had ethereum deposited with them to withdraw the forked currency for several months after the split (although there is no guarantee that they'd do that again).
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phil22

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #219 on: July 31, 2017, 08:34:47 PM »
Any wallet where you have access to your own private keys would mean you'd be able to spend on both blockchains if there really is a fork.

I looked more into the ethereum fork and it turns out that even some places like coinbase where your coins aren't stored in a wallet where you control the private key and didn't support "ethereum classic" still allowed people who had ethereum deposited with them to withdraw the forked currency for several months after the split (although there is no guarantee that they'd do that again).

for that example, wouldn't coinbase have to broadcast the transaction on both chains then?  did they do that in an unofficial way?
 either way, yeah it seems a good idea to make sure everything's kept at a privately-controlled wallet for the time being.

i think there will definitely be a fork (and there probably always should be for big protocol upgrades for "backup"), but who knows how much support it'll get.

maizeman

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #220 on: July 31, 2017, 08:51:19 PM »
Here's the Coinbase FAQ about ETC: https://support.coinbase.com/customer/en/portal/articles/2524725-ethereum-classic-faq

Basically the currency split in late July last year and they started calculating separate ETH and ETC balances, and provided the chance to withdraw but not deposit the ETC until Dec of the same year. Key answer:

Quote
What should I expect if another digital currency supported by Coinbase experiences a future hard fork?

The industry is evolving rapidly and we expect that best practices will develop over time on how to handle hard forks. Right now we are handling each one on a case by case basis.

The latest estimate I've read is something like 95% support for the upgraded protocol which would leave maybe 5% support for bitcoin cash and would mean solving the first block will take close to three hours. It'll certainly be fun to watch from the sidelines tomorrow morning though!
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Hvillian

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #221 on: July 31, 2017, 10:26:18 PM »
In a somewhat suprising move, Coinbase explicitly said they would not support Bitcoin cash.  Naturally this announcement was followed by mass withdrawal and the all-too-predictable delays.

Quote from: Coinbase
"Customers who wish to access both bitcoin (BTC) and bitcoin cash (BCC) need to withdraw bitcoin stored on Coinbase before 11.59 pm PT July 31, 2017. If you do not wish to access bitcoin cash (BCC) then no action is required."
https://cointelegraph.com/news/coinbase-advises-users-to-transfer-btc-

Happy Fork Day, nevertheless.

PDXTabs

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #222 on: August 03, 2017, 10:09:41 AM »
I went ahead and built a mining rig. Parts as follows:

 $$$ - Description
 118 - ASRock H81 PRO BTC R2.0
  53 - Intel Celeron G1840 Processor
  33 - 4GB RAM
 176 - EVGA SuperNOVA 1000 G2 power supply
  40 - 6 x PCIe riser cable
1380 - 6 x SAPPHIRE NITRO Radeon RX 470 4GB "video cards"
  40 - Home made case/frame
  20 - 15A surge suppressor
------------
$1860

I had a spare SSD laying around. I'm not counting the $19 that I spent on the Kill A Watt Electricity Usage Monitor that is in the photo or the tools and parts that I needed to run Ethernet to the garage.

I'm running Ubuntu 16.04 and Calymore's dual miner 9.7. I'm getting ~122Mh/s at Ethereum while simultaneously getting ~3675Mh/s at Sia. I'm drawing ~1320W which seems on the ragged edge of the power supply that I chose. Dual mining Sia increased power consumption by about 30% and decreases Ethereum production by ~3%. I pay $0.08/kWh.
« Last Edit: August 03, 2017, 10:16:39 AM by PDXTabs »

phil22

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #223 on: August 03, 2017, 06:21:42 PM »
In a somewhat suprising move, Coinbase explicitly said they would not support Bitcoin cash.

in another twist, Coinbase decided to support Bitcoin Cash (withdrawals only?) starting in... January.  i can't think of a good reason to wait that long other than just to be sure they don't affect markets too much with their actions:

https://blog.coinbase.com/update-on-bitcoin-cash-8a67a7e8dbdf

effigy98

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #224 on: August 04, 2017, 02:53:22 PM »
I went ahead and built a mining rig. Parts as follows:

I'm running Ubuntu 16.04 and Calymore's dual miner 9.7. I'm getting ~122Mh/s at Ethereum while simultaneously getting ~3675Mh/s at Sia. I'm drawing ~1320W which seems on the ragged edge of the power supply that I chose. Dual mining Sia increased power consumption by about 30% and decreases Ethereum production by ~3%. I pay $0.08/kWh.

Nice!! Congrats. Pretty fulfilling to get that first rig up. You should probably get another power supply or remove one video card. It is a bit of a fire hazard with only a 1000w power supply. Rule of thumb is to only use 80% of the watts the power supply is rated for.

lifeanon269

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #225 on: August 04, 2017, 06:42:54 PM »
I went ahead and built a mining rig. Parts as follows:
 ...snipped...
I had a spare SSD laying around. I'm not counting the $19 that I spent on the Kill A Watt Electricity Usage Monitor that is in the photo or the tools and parts that I needed to run Ethernet to the garage.

I'm running Ubuntu 16.04 and Calymore's dual miner 9.7. I'm getting ~122Mh/s at Ethereum while simultaneously getting ~3675Mh/s at Sia. I'm drawing ~1320W which seems on the ragged edge of the power supply that I chose. Dual mining Sia increased power consumption by about 30% and decreases Ethereum production by ~3%. I pay $0.08/kWh.

I'm curious because I don't have any experience mining alt-coins with GPUs, but I do mine Bitcoin. What is your profitibility in mining alt-coins with GPUs? Your upfront costs seem pretty hefty for such minimal mining power (MH/s). How does that hashrate translate with alt-coin profitibility taking into account your upfront cost of $1800?

I have a 7.5TH/s miner that draws 1150W. At Bitcoin's current difficulty and price, it brings in about $7 or .0025 BTC each day. My electricity costs are about $100 a month ($.12/KWh) and revenue is at about $210 a month.

The miner cost me about $1100 total (miner, PSU, shipping). I figure I will run this unit for 2 years even if it is barely keeping pace with the electricity costs since I have a feeling Bitcoin will go up in price (possibly even doubling) in that time.

I'm just curious as to how that stacks up against alt-coin mining. I know GPUs are out of stock like crazy, so it is clearly profitable. I'm just wondering how well that scales and how well does an investment like yours pay off?

PDXTabs

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #226 on: August 05, 2017, 07:33:25 AM »
I'm curious because I don't have any experience mining alt-coins with GPUs, but I do mine Bitcoin. What is your profitibility in mining alt-coins with GPUs? Your upfront costs seem pretty hefty for such minimal mining power (MH/s). How does that hashrate translate with alt-coin profitibility taking into account your upfront cost of $1800?

As of right now (current difficulty and price) I am mining $6.89 worth of Ethereum and $1.86 worth of Sia per day while spending $2.53 on electricity ($0.08/kWh). So, that's $6.22 per day after electricity. Obviously as prices and difficult change that can change a lot. So, I guess that's $189 after electric costs per month.

I'm not sure that this is a great investment, but I max out my 401k every month with equities. To me this is a fun side project that *might* earn me some money. Obviously, I don't just want to burn $1800, but I know just how risky this is.

EDIT - I hope to use the parts for 3 years.
« Last Edit: August 05, 2017, 08:36:59 AM by PDXTabs »

trollwithamustache

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #227 on: August 05, 2017, 09:18:30 AM »
It looks like coinbase is ooching towards supporting bitcoin cash. Anyone have any thoughts on what to do with the new cash-coins? Is bitcoin cash actually getting used out there in the real world?

my current thinking is as soon as I can, I will dump the bitcoin cash coins and be happy with whatever I get for them as its essentially free money.

phil22

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #228 on: August 05, 2017, 07:00:30 PM »
i'm going to sit on my coins on both chains for the time being.  the miners could do anything and it's up to them, really.  if bitcoin cash goes to 0 there's no real loss there.

once the cash chain difficulty drops or if the segwit2x outlook looks shaky, miners may be incentivized to switch to the cash chain.  all it takes is one larger miner to make the change to severely slow down the old chain.

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #229 on: August 05, 2017, 07:02:12 PM »
Another semi-regular semi-scheduled update from my ZEC mining experiment.



Mining income continues to flatten out, although I'm still significantly ahead of the cost of electricity. I may still get bailed out by capital appreciation I'm getting by letting my ZEC mining earnings accumulate in bitcoins and zcash instead of converting them back to dollars as I go.* I'm treating all the bitcoins that were in wallets I controlled on August 1st as now existing as both BTC and BCC (and counting the sum of ZEC BTC and BCC to calculate capital gains) and any new earnings since then as only BTC.

Like PDXT I knew the risks going in and see this as a fun side project and it continues to be fascinating.

*This is really cheating when it comes to deciding whether my decision to build a mining rig payed off, because it's an entirely different activity from mining, and I could have just put the dollars I spent on my mining hardware directly into BTC and ZEC and had the same effect if not more.

Link to the original description of the ZEC mining experiment.

Link to details of how I updated to include electrical costs (thanks CanuckExpat)
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bender

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #230 on: August 05, 2017, 07:07:52 PM »

It looks like coinbase is ooching towards supporting bitcoin cash. Anyone have any thoughts on what to do with the new cash-coins? Is bitcoin cash actually getting used out there in the real world?

my current thinking is as soon as I can, I will dump the bitcoin cash coins and be happy with whatever I get for them as its essentially free money.

From what I see bitcoin cash is like getting in on the ground floor of bitcoin.  Why not hold or add to your bitcoin cash position?  A year from now it could be worth $0 or $5000 per coin.  It has all the same characteristics of bitcoin with bigger blocks, and more exchanges are starting to support it. 

I'm watching from the sidelines, not willing to speculate with my own cash in any crypto.  From where I stand though I don't see how one can be a believer in bitcoin and not think the same price increases can happen for bitcoin cash.

maizeman

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #231 on: August 05, 2017, 07:23:16 PM »
A year from now [Bitcoin Cash] could be worth $0 or $5000 per coin.  It has all the same characteristics of bitcoin with bigger blocks, and more exchanges are starting to support it.  ... From where I stand though I don't see how one can be a believer in bitcoin and not think the same price increases can happen for bitcoin cash.

However, you can make that exact same statements for bitcoin, bitcoin cash, and at least a dozen other altcoins.
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bender

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #232 on: August 05, 2017, 07:39:46 PM »
Good point maizeman - I didn't consider that BCC is an alt coin.

neonlight

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #233 on: August 06, 2017, 10:44:25 AM »

It looks like coinbase is ooching towards supporting bitcoin cash. Anyone have any thoughts on what to do with the new cash-coins? Is bitcoin cash actually getting used out there in the real world?

my current thinking is as soon as I can, I will dump the bitcoin cash coins and be happy with whatever I get for them as its essentially free money.

From what I see bitcoin cash is like getting in on the ground floor of bitcoin.  Why not hold or add to your bitcoin cash position?  A year from now it could be worth $0 or $5000 per coin.  It has all the same characteristics of bitcoin with bigger blocks, and more exchanges are starting to support it. 

I'm watching from the sidelines, not willing to speculate with my own cash in any crypto.  From where I stand though I don't see how one can be a believer in bitcoin and not think the same price increases can happen for bitcoin cash.

There is hardly any logic or past info which we can reference. Maybe one ETH and ETC. ETH which is the new-but-official coin went sky-high while the old-and-unofficial grew steadily(slow by crypto standard).

OneCoolCat

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #234 on: August 06, 2017, 11:40:41 PM »
I'm curious because I don't have any experience mining alt-coins with GPUs, but I do mine Bitcoin. What is your profitibility in mining alt-coins with GPUs? Your upfront costs seem pretty hefty for such minimal mining power (MH/s). How does that hashrate translate with alt-coin profitibility taking into account your upfront cost of $1800?

As of right now (current difficulty and price) I am mining $6.89 worth of Ethereum and $1.86 worth of Sia per day while spending $2.53 on electricity ($0.08/kWh). So, that's $6.22 per day after electricity. Obviously as prices and difficult change that can change a lot. So, I guess that's $189 after electric costs per month.

I'm not sure that this is a great investment, but I max out my 401k every month with equities. To me this is a fun side project that *might* earn me some money. Obviously, I don't just want to burn $1800, but I know just how risky this is.

EDIT - I hope to use the parts for 3 years.

I stopped mining Eth + SC and have been mining Signatum (SIGT).  I've mined $25 worth of SIGT, 6x 1060's, since yesterday afternoon and I was in a bad pool for about half the time.  The price has skyrocketed but so has the difficulty.  If the price holds, it could be a very profitable coin. 
« Last Edit: August 06, 2017, 11:44:13 PM by OneCoolCat »
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effigy98

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #235 on: August 06, 2017, 11:41:28 PM »
Another 8 gpu rig added. Hoping I can get some new AMD Vega64 next week (100mh ETH???) before they are sold out in 30 seconds. If my air conditioner / heat pump was alive, it would be bleeding.

effigy98

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #236 on: August 06, 2017, 11:47:07 PM »
How many watts is your rig running on?  AMD or Nvidia? 

This new rig, x8 1060 6gb is running just under 800 watts which is pretty amazing really. All cards have memory overclocked and power turned down to 60% using MSI afterburner.

Kaby Celeron,
Asus Prime Z270 (this mb is amazing)
4gb whatever was cheapest
60gb ssd (Windows 10)
Mix of 1060 6gb (stupid limits, have to mix and match brands and sizes).
EVGA G2 1000W PS

The best thing about building rigs, I am getting pretty good with aluminum which is a really useful skill to have I am finding out. It is so strong, light, looks cool, and is very cheap if you buy the right size.

OneCoolCat

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #237 on: August 06, 2017, 11:55:38 PM »
How many watts is your rig running on?  AMD or Nvidia? 

This new rig, x8 1060 6gb is running just under 800 watts which is pretty amazing really. All cards have memory overclocked and power turned down to 60% using MSI afterburner.

Kaby Celeron,
Asus Prime Z270 (this mb is amazing)
4gb whatever was cheapest
60gb ssd (Windows 10)
Mix of 1060 6gb (stupid limits, have to mix and match brands and sizes).
EVGA G2 1000W PS

The best thing about building rigs, I am getting pretty good with aluminum which is a really useful skill to have I am finding out. It is so strong, light, looks cool, and is very cheap if you buy the right size.

Nice, watts seems a little high to me.  My 6x 1060's use 480 watts on 60% power.  Perhaps because mine are 3gb, idk.  Yours are better and you can dual mine SC more efficiently than me.  i was dual mining Eth + SC with 141 Eth and 180 SC hash.  The SC took a big hit on the 3gb gpus. 

You should definitely be mining Sigt right now.  You will double profits.  If you dont want to hodle, send the coins to your Cryptopia wallet and sell them throughout the day for Eth/SC.  You will end up with twice as much per day.  Use Pav's ccminer for good results.  If you are a risk-taker, or savy about virus', download sp's modified ccminer from a reliable source (some leaked copies have trojans).  Thats the best Sigt miner but you either have to pay or be careful about who you download it from.
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OneCoolCat

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #238 on: August 07, 2017, 12:00:01 AM »
Just want to add Sigt uses a new Skunk algo.  1060's get 18-19 mh/s on it.  I don't quite get that, I get closer to 16.5mh/s.  Whattomine shows you will make about $32 per day with your rig but I found its not very accurate with this algo.  You can expect just a little over half what it reports.  The problem is the pools don't actually report what the ccminer does.  For instance, my 101 mh/s on my ccminer is stable but Suprnova fluctuates between 40-145mh/s.  Its still the best option at the moment so get it on it while you can.

https://whattomine.com/coins/191-sigt-skunkhash?utf8=%E2%9C%93&hr=144.0&p=800.0&fee=0.0&cost=0.12&hcost=0.0&commit=Calculate
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krypt0miner

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #239 on: August 07, 2017, 10:58:00 PM »
For those who are wondering how digital currencies will be used as a form of money:
- Bitcoin is designed to be a store of value (fixed, decreasing inflation rate and limited total supply)
- Litecoin is designed to be a medium of exchange (also with a fixed, decreasing inflation rate but with a much larger total supply and faster transaction confirmation time)
- Ethereum is designed to be a token that is used to power decentralized applications that run on top of the Ethereum blockchain

Zcash, Monero, and Dash (and a handful of other, similar coins) are designed as mediums of exchange but offer a privacy-oriented transaction mechanism that makes it nearly impossible to identify a user by their transaction history (which is what Bitcoin, Litecoin, and Ethereum currently allow). I see government regulation as a huge hurdle for these privacy-oriented coins, so I plan on watching from the sidelines for the time being, and learning more about them as the digital currency market grows legs.

Now that the digital currency market has ballooned to $100 billion+ in total capitalization, there seems to be a coin for everything and everybody. Some of these have very interesting use cases that may or may not disrupt entire industries (Ripple, Sia, etc..). But since we are investors here on the Mr. Money Mustache forum, we need to be able to separate the signal from the noise. That is why, in my opinion, it really only makes sense to buy Bitcoin, since you are looking to put your money into an asset that will consistently gain value over time. Ethereum is also worth considering as the demand for its applications outpaces the supply of Ether tokens. However, as other users have mentioned, it does not have a clear monetary policy.

I put together this little document for those who are interested in getting started with digital currencies but aren't sure where to start. Comments are enabled!

https://docs.google.com/document/d/11FSUczla4BOxpLfirYoc7PhFgAlUOQMvjwSL0lmJ2IM/edit?usp=sharing

Full disclosure: I mine Ethereum in the Ethermine pool (12x 1060 GTX 6GB @ ~238 MH/s) and buy Bitcoin during price drops (I transfer $500 or so per month to GDAX where it sits until I decide to buy in).
« Last Edit: August 07, 2017, 11:01:15 PM by krypt0miner »

neonlight

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #240 on: August 08, 2017, 02:43:46 AM »
For those who are wondering how digital currencies will be used as a form of money:
- Bitcoin is designed to be a store of value (fixed, decreasing inflation rate and limited total supply)
- Litecoin is designed to be a medium of exchange (also with a fixed, decreasing inflation rate but with a much larger total supply and faster transaction confirmation time)
- Ethereum is designed to be a token that is used to power decentralized applications that run on top of the Ethereum blockchain

Zcash, Monero, and Dash (and a handful of other, similar coins) are designed as mediums of exchange but offer a privacy-oriented transaction mechanism that makes it nearly impossible to identify a user by their transaction history (which is what Bitcoin, Litecoin, and Ethereum currently allow). I see government regulation as a huge hurdle for these privacy-oriented coins, so I plan on watching from the sidelines for the time being, and learning more about them as the digital currency market grows legs.

Now that the digital currency market has ballooned to $100 billion+ in total capitalization, there seems to be a coin for everything and everybody. Some of these have very interesting use cases that may or may not disrupt entire industries (Ripple, Sia, etc..). But since we are investors here on the Mr. Money Mustache forum, we need to be able to separate the signal from the noise. That is why, in my opinion, it really only makes sense to buy Bitcoin, since you are looking to put your money into an asset that will consistently gain value over time. Ethereum is also worth considering as the demand for its applications outpaces the supply of Ether tokens. However, as other users have mentioned, it does not have a clear monetary policy.

I put together this little document for those who are interested in getting started with digital currencies but aren't sure where to start. Comments are enabled!

https://docs.google.com/document/d/11FSUczla4BOxpLfirYoc7PhFgAlUOQMvjwSL0lmJ2IM/edit?usp=sharing

Full disclosure: I mine Ethereum in the Ethermine pool (12x 1060 GTX 6GB @ ~238 MH/s) and buy Bitcoin during price drops (I transfer $500 or so per month to GDAX where it sits until I decide to buy in).

As a hobbyist with tech background I cannot agree with you more. There are a lot of noises and it's hard to figure out which is which as a hobbyist. The best bet is to stick with the main coins first: BTC, LTC, ETH and start dabbling: buy, read, sell, read, read, read and repeat.

Once you get comfortable with the three you can move down the table, Try NOT to buy new coins that are freshly launched, the days of spotting ETH is largely gone. There are simply too much noises out there, every coin claim they are revolutionary, heck even I feel like launching a new coin! So stay out of fresh coins, but if you miss out on the next breakout don't blame me ;)

effigy98

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #241 on: August 08, 2017, 01:50:11 PM »
For new people, coinbase has an Auto invest feature you can setup weekly/monthly in the 3 major coins. It is by far the easiest way to get started. Just sign up for their website, link a checking account, and turn on auto invest for the coin(s) you want. No need to learn all this complex mining if you don't want to. Until there is an official ETF, this is a good start.

neonlight

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #242 on: August 08, 2017, 11:23:51 PM »
For new people, coinbase has an Auto invest feature you can setup weekly/monthly in the 3 major coins. It is by far the easiest way to get started. Just sign up for their website, link a checking account, and turn on auto invest for the coin(s) you want. No need to learn all this complex mining if you don't want to. Until there is an official ETF, this is a good start.

Didn't know that, good info

JAYSLOL

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #243 on: August 14, 2017, 07:09:53 AM »
So this thread seems oddly quiet lately, especially with a crazy run up of Bitcoin and other crypto values.  So, anyone's guess how high this is going to go?  Who's made shitloads of money?  I haven't made much as I only have a very small portfolio of a few coins. 

lifeanon269

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #244 on: August 14, 2017, 07:49:27 AM »
Yup! Things have been very good lately. I've made several times more in bitcoin the last two months than I have in my real job.

I predicted that Bitcoin would hit $3500 in August and continue going up from there, so this has well blown past my predictions.

I think a number of factors are at play. I believe how well Bitcoin handled the hard fork has given a lot of investors a lot more confidence in bitcoin knowing that any contention to the main chain isn't likely to be very successful. Also, Japanese adoption continues to be going bonkers. Combine that with all the worldwide uncertainty of war with North Korea and the traditional markets declining and bitcoin seems to be emerging as a very nice safe haven.

The future of bitcoin looks even brighter.

I do predict a somewhat downturn come November as investors get nervous again when the second phase of SegWit2X comes into play. This time miners of the main chain will actually need to upgrade software in unison as opposed to simply doing nothing avoid a chain split. But after a successful upgrade the price surge will continue up again.

effigy98

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #245 on: August 14, 2017, 01:14:38 PM »
Vega is a dud, looks like wild rumors and speculation. Will stick to nvidia 1050/1060/1070's in the farm and only get more if I see an amazing deal like $300 refurb 1070s I picked up last week. I feel like I'm hitting the ceiling of heat and wife acceptance factor. Switching additional investment to dollar cost average weekly automatic purchases until I hit my target allocation.

neonlight

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #246 on: August 15, 2017, 01:56:53 AM »
Yup! Things have been very good lately. I've made several times more in bitcoin the last two months than I have in my real job.

I predicted that Bitcoin would hit $3500 in August and continue going up from there, so this has well blown past my predictions.

I think a number of factors are at play. I believe how well Bitcoin handled the hard fork has given a lot of investors a lot more confidence in bitcoin knowing that any contention to the main chain isn't likely to be very successful. Also, Japanese adoption continues to be going bonkers. Combine that with all the worldwide uncertainty of war with North Korea and the traditional markets declining and bitcoin seems to be emerging as a very nice safe haven.

The future of bitcoin looks even brighter.

I do predict a somewhat downturn come November as investors get nervous again when the second phase of SegWit2X comes into play. This time miners of the main chain will actually need to upgrade software in unison as opposed to simply doing nothing avoid a chain split. But after a successful upgrade the price surge will continue up again.

Please do not predict, our ability to predict dwarfs the whims and fancies of the whaler. If a whaler wakes up with epiphany and starts selling, then it's the big dump. Early holders have way too much holdings to make any technical analysis stands.

lifeanon269

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #247 on: August 15, 2017, 06:46:43 AM »
Please do not predict, our ability to predict dwarfs the whims and fancies of the whaler. If a whaler wakes up with epiphany and starts selling, then it's the big dump. Early holders have way too much holdings to make any technical analysis stands.

Whales create noise, but not trends.

CanuckExpat

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #248 on: August 15, 2017, 08:24:24 AM »
maizeman I was thinking about your mining experiment, what would it look like if you added a line to account for mining income minus opportunity cost of the hardware? Not sure what the fair equivalent would be, if you sunk the equivalent cost of the hardware into the same coin you mine at the beginning and let it appreciate perhaps
Was targetting Freedom35 but ended up retiring a couple years early. Currently Based in Buffalo for the summer.

lifeanon269

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #249 on: August 15, 2017, 09:55:27 AM »
maizeman I was thinking about your mining experiment, what would it look like if you added a line to account for mining income minus opportunity cost of the hardware? Not sure what the fair equivalent would be, if you sunk the equivalent cost of the hardware into the same coin you mine at the beginning and let it appreciate perhaps

I've thought about that myself with my own mining as well. With the huge gains that Bitcoin has seen over the last several months, it is hard for mining to keep up with compared to if you had simply investing the up front costs in Bitcoin itself instead of the equipment (I think that's what your getting at).

However, it is hard to (or at least unfair to) calculate in the short term because in the long term mining will win out so long as you are able to mine back all the Bitcoin you spent on the equipment and then some. As long as you can mine back all the Bitcoin spent on your equipment plus a little more, then you'll be able to realize the gains you originally missed out on plus all future gains of the asset if you continue to hold.

In other words, if I spent 1 bitcoin to mine one bitcoin, then there really isn't any opportunity cost involved regardless of what happened to the price of Bitcoin during the time it took to mine that 1 bitcoin. Therefore, if I spend 1 Bitcoin to mine 1.5 bitcoin, then I profit 0.5 Bitcoin regardless of what its worth is at any point in time.

The only difference between the two investment options would be if the Bitcoin (or whatever crypto-currency) price plummeted while mining work is still being performed. At that point you've already made the capital investment in the equipment and your only option would be to continue to mine in hopes that the price returns or to bail and recoup some of the equipment costs by selling the hardware. Whereas if you had simply just invested the initial money in Bitcoin you could sell immediately and mitigate some of your losses right away.