Author Topic: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion  (Read 139921 times)

EscapeVelocity2020

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #1150 on: May 01, 2018, 01:21:22 AM »
The BitCoin Achilles heel is that just about any reasonably funded private entity can start a currency on an equivalent playing level.  There is no moat, no barrier to entry, no intrinsic value.  Even Oscar-Mayer has jumped in.  What if Apple just decided one day that it wanted to be a real player and back-stopped it's 'I-currency' with both technical ability as well as real cash reserves.  What if a 3rd world country decided to use 'Wakanda' blockchain currency backstopped with it's natural resources? 

Just about anything could render BitCoin effectively worthless if a new Crypto overshadows or splinters the market.
Transitioning to FIRE'd albeit somewhat cautiously...

trollwithamustache

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #1151 on: May 01, 2018, 08:04:50 AM »
.  What if a 3rd world country decided to use 'Wakanda' blockchain currency backstopped with it's natural resources? 


well, to answer your last question it appears you have to cut the price of your crude oil by 30% as a teaser to get people to buy your  crypto and use that to buy your oil....

The BTC moat is its widespread usage, which is both incredibly powerful and potentially incredible weak.

talltexan

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #1152 on: May 09, 2018, 12:32:25 PM »
Don't worry about Apple issuing its own crypto currency. Worry about Amazon doing it.

runbikerun

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #1153 on: May 09, 2018, 02:23:46 PM »
Amazon are already starting to eat the banking industry, but from an entirely unexpected direction: they're offering loans to small businesses which sell their products on Amazon itself. It's a very shrewd move, because they have an incredibly detailed view of the borrowers' financials and operations, because they can utterly bury a business that refuses to pay what's owed, and because they get two bites of the apple by charging for the marketplace as well as for the financing. Those factors combine to produce a loan book that would make any credit risk analyst weep for joy.

There's money to be made in disrupting established banking organisations. Just not in fucking crypto.

OneCoolCat

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #1154 on: May 09, 2018, 08:42:40 PM »
The BitCoin Achilles heel is that just about any reasonably funded private entity can start a currency on an equivalent playing level.  There is no moat, no barrier to entry, no intrinsic value.  Even Oscar-Mayer has jumped in.  What if Apple just decided one day that it wanted to be a real player and back-stopped it's 'I-currency' with both technical ability as well as real cash reserves.  What if a 3rd world country decided to use 'Wakanda' blockchain currency backstopped with it's natural resources? 

Just about anything could render BitCoin effectively worthless if a new Crypto overshadows or splinters the market.

Bigger players will enter the crypto scene, thats for sure.  I don't think it will hurt the big players like Bitcoin, Monero and Ethereum because most people involved in crypto appreciate the decentralized nature of it.  That's the primary reason Bitcoin was first created and it remains an essential aspect of cryptocurrency.  I think there will be successful decentralized and centralized cryptos.  Ripple is a perfect example of how they can both succeed. 
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js82

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #1155 on: May 11, 2018, 05:22:45 PM »
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/04/25/nasdaq-is-open-to-becoming-cryptocurrency-exchange-ceo-says.html

Just like you old farts had an entire generation buying equities with you in retirement accounts, it's easy to see where the millennial generation will be putting their (albeit less) money towards.

Look macro, play it accordingly.

I'm a millennial.  I see Blockchain as a useful technology.  I suspect there are uses which have not been significantly explored yet, for which it will prove its merits as a future.

When I "look macro", I prefer assets with intrinsic value, and ones that offer a return even in the absence of wild price fluctuation.  Shares of corporations offer that.  Smart real estate investment offers that.  Crypto?  Not so much.

Cryptocurrencies themselves are at best, a useful means of making a transaction, but with no intrinsic value.  At worst, they're an ecological trainwreck and their use is limited due to transaction costs/speeds(see: Bitcoin's electricity consumption and speed).

Do they have uses?  Sure.  Does a crypto-coin have intrinsic value in the way a share of a publicly-traded corporation does?  Heck no.  At best, by "investing" in crypto, you're doing the equivalent of "investing" in gold, in hopes of price gains over time from an item whose value(in terms of usefulness) is largely decoupled from its market price.  This is reinforced by the extent to which the overwhelming majority of cryptos track together - what we have right now is mass investing in the crypto "asset class", but with relatively little regard to the merits of many of the individual cryptocurrencies.  Most of the 1000+ "currencies" out there today are useless garbage, good for little other than speculation.

In the end, crypto isn't creating wealth(In fact, when you consider the absurd quantities of energy being expended on mining, it's delivering negative value).  It's a transactional process, pushing electrons around to benefit one party at the expense of another, much like the existing banking system.  The only difference is who wins and who loses, and the size of the transaction fees.  And given the sheer amount of energy it takes to process a single transaction for Bitcoin and Ethereum, crypto definitely isn't winning in the transactional costs department in the vast majority of cases - which is what the average end user will care about.

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #1156 on: May 12, 2018, 08:05:21 AM »
In an interview with Warren Buffet earlier this week, he mentioned that if someone says they don't think Apple stock will do well, Buffet doesn't get angry about it.  He just has a different view.  But if you tell someone who owns Bitcoin you don't think it's a good investment, they tend to take it very personally.

Charlie Munger had even stronger opinions about the matter, but it would be practically be trolling to quote his comments here.

sol

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #1157 on: May 12, 2018, 08:46:10 AM »
Charlie Munger had even stronger opinions about the matter, but it would be practically be trolling to quote his comments here.

Ooh ooh, let me!

Charlie Munger is a legend in the investment and finance world, and he thinks "Bitcoin is worthless artificial gold."

maizeman

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #1158 on: May 13, 2018, 05:46:58 PM »
An interesting read on the economics of ASICs.

It also answered a question I've been wondering about for a long time, which is why a company that built custom miners that turned a net profit would ever sell them, and why custom asics which didn't turn a profit would ever be purchased. It's all about timing.

Quote
In the case of Bitmainís A3, a small batch of miners were sold to the public with a very fast shipping time, less than 10 days. Shortly afterwards, YouTube videos started circulating of people who had bought the miners and were legitimately making $800 per day off of their miner. This created a lot of mania around the A3, setting Bitmain up for a very successful batch 2.

While we donít know exactly how many A3 units got sold, we suspect that the profit margins they made on their batch 2 sales are greater than the potential block reward from mining using the A3 units. That is to say, Bitmain sold over a hundred million dollars in mining rigs knowing that the block reward was not large enough for their customers to make back that money, even assuming free electricity. And this isnít the first time, they pulled something similar with the Dash miners. We call it flooding, and itís another example of the dangerous asymmetry that exists between manufacturers and customers.

https://blog.sia.tech/the-state-of-cryptocurrency-mining-538004a37f9b

TheShinyHorse

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #1159 on: May 14, 2018, 01:43:18 PM »
In an interview with Warren Buffet earlier this week, he mentioned that if someone says they don't think Apple stock will do well, Buffet doesn't get angry about it.  He just has a different view.  But if you tell someone who owns Bitcoin you don't think it's a good investment, they tend to take it very personally.

Charlie Munger had even stronger opinions about the matter, but it would be practically be trolling to quote his comments here.
Lol, some take it personally, most don't. It's the vocal people you usually hear/see (especially on the internet).

Buffet/Munger have been wrong plenty of times. Especially on (new) technology.

shadow

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #1160 on: May 14, 2018, 03:18:53 PM »
In an interview with Warren Buffet earlier this week, he mentioned that if someone says they don't think Apple stock will do well, Buffet doesn't get angry about it.  He just has a different view.  But if you tell someone who owns Bitcoin you don't think it's a good investment, they tend to take it very personally.

Charlie Munger had even stronger opinions about the matter, but it would be practically be trolling to quote his comments here.
Lol, some take it personally, most don't. It's the vocal people you usually hear/see (especially on the internet).

Buffet/Munger have been wrong plenty of times. Especially on (new) technology.

Munger specifically mentioned bitcoin as rat poison, though I'm not sure if he is aware of the distinction between bitcoin and cryptocurrency. If he had specifically targeted crypto, then, despite his wise old-man image and worthy mental models, his statements on crypto would be very foolish. 

Telecaster

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #1161 on: May 14, 2018, 04:45:53 PM »
Lol, some take it personally, most don't. It's the vocal people you usually hear/see (especially on the internet).

Buffet/Munger have been wrong plenty of times. Especially on (new) technology.

How about Bill Gates? 

Padonak

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #1162 on: May 14, 2018, 05:41:57 PM »
Lol, some take it personally, most don't. It's the vocal people you usually hear/see (especially on the internet).

Buffet/Munger have been wrong plenty of times. Especially on (new) technology.

How about Bill Gates?

I'm not defending Crypto, but as far as I remember, Gates was wrong about the Internet and its potential.

maizeman

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #1163 on: May 14, 2018, 05:54:56 PM »
Lol, some take it personally, most don't. It's the vocal people you usually hear/see (especially on the internet).

Buffet/Munger have been wrong plenty of times. Especially on (new) technology.

How about Bill Gates?

I'm not defending Crypto, but as far as I remember, Gates was wrong about the Internet and its potential.

Bill Gates is enough of an antichrist to the open source movement (even though he seems like a perfectly nice man) that there are whole websites set up to track his bad predictions:

Quote
"We will never make a 32-bit operating system," Bill Gates said at the launch of MSX in 1983.

Gates declared in January 2004 at the World Economic Forum in Switzerland that spam would be dead in 24 months. Two years later, security firm Barracuda said that in 2007, 95-percent of e-mail messages were spam.

"This antitrust thing will blow over," Bill Gates was quoted as telling a group of Intel executives at a meeting on 11 July, 1995

There's also the famous "No one will need more than 637KB of memory for a personal computer. 640KB ought to be enough for anybody" although it's not clear if he really ever said that or not (he now denies it).

....I don't know that this proves anything in particular, but there it is.

Telecaster

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #1164 on: May 14, 2018, 08:09:38 PM »
Lol, some take it personally, most don't. It's the vocal people you usually hear/see (especially on the internet).

Buffet/Munger have been wrong plenty of times. Especially on (new) technology.

How about Bill Gates?

I'm not defending Crypto, but as far as I remember, Gates was wrong about the Internet and its potential.


You sure?  Here is Gate's 1995 "Internet Tidal Wave" memo.  It seems to me he understood very clearly the direction things were headed:

https://www.justice.gov/sites/default/files/atr/legacy/2006/03/03/20.pdf

That said, just because Gate's understanding of tech made him one of the richest human beings who ever lived, by itself, doesn't mean he is correct about crypto. 

But in my mind, if someone with that level of expertise has concerns, then it is reasonable to take those concerns seriously.  Same with Buffett and Munger.  Do any crypto proponents care to address their concerns?  Or is it simply enough to dismiss their points because they have been wrong in the past?

BattlaP

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #1165 on: May 14, 2018, 11:23:34 PM »
Maybe itís enough to ignore all the shit people talk on either side and just keep counting the days, months and years that crypto fails to revolutionise anything. Thereís no steady progress here, just empty hype based on weaker and weaker evidence. Iím very happy that the wave of nonsense has receded out of pop media.

shinn497

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #1166 on: May 14, 2018, 11:26:35 PM »
Can you guys seel me your GPUs. I want to build a deep learning rig.

runbikerun

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #1167 on: May 19, 2018, 01:01:42 AM »
Interestingly, I've just read an article on how blockchain technologies may be affected by the EU's General Data Protection Regulations (GDPR). Link here: https://medium.com/wearetheledger/the-blockchain-gdpr-paradox-fc51e663d047.

TLDR: as of the 25th of May, according to the link, holding any personal data whatsoever on a blockchain will be effectively completely illegal across the entire European Union. For those Mustachians resident outside Europe, or those within Europe who aren't particularly interested in European legal news, this is a Very Big Deal. The European court system is EXTREMELY serious about making sure that things within the EU follow the EU's rules, to the extent that a large part of European legal history consists of the union itself successfully prosecuting the absolute shit out of individual governments for pricking around.

If the article is correct, and it's impossible to make blockchain GDPR-compliant without turning it into a simple lookup table, then the number of potential blockchain applications in the EU has just gone to absolute zero, along with the number of potential blockchain applications that involve the EU in any way whatsoever.

sol

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #1168 on: May 19, 2018, 08:31:49 AM »
If the article is correct, and it's impossible to make blockchain GDPR-compliant without turning it into a simple lookup table, then the number of potential blockchain applications in the EU has just gone to absolute zero, along with the number of potential blockchain applications that involve the EU in any way whatsoever.

That would be delicious, if a technology designed by privacy advocates was laid low by privacy concerns. 

Cache Stash

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Way to big a thread to read it all. 

Has there been any discussion on the amount of electrical power draw currently being utilized to support bitcoin mining?  I read somewhere, very recently, by the end of the year bitcoin mining will have a consumption of 0.5% of the worlds current electrical demand. 

Anyone see a problem here?

I certainly do.  Especially if you hold strong beliefs in climate change, pollution in general, etc...

Seems like a can of worms is being opened.

Edited to Add:

The current technology doesn't seem sustainable.  I think it is a good first wack at something that could be greatly beneficial, but the jury is out on first mover advantage of Bitcoin and the other 5,000 crypto's out there now.  I would say the final winner of the crypto war (which I believe it is) will not be first mover.

(This post is not saying anything about block chain.   Block chain is the fundamental underlying technology.   It's about the current use of blockchain for crypto currency)
« Last Edit: Today at 09:37:54 AM by Cache Stash »



Telecaster

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Way to big a thread to read it all. 

Has there been any discussion on the amount of electrical power draw currently being utilized to support bitcoin mining?  I read somewhere, very recently, by the end of the year bitcoin mining will have a consumption of 0.5% of the worlds current electrical demand. 

Anyone see a problem here?

I do too.  No ability to scale. 

Travis

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Way to big a thread to read it all. 

Has there been any discussion on the amount of electrical power draw currently being utilized to support bitcoin mining?  I read somewhere, very recently, by the end of the year bitcoin mining will have a consumption of 0.5% of the worlds current electrical demand. 

Anyone see a problem here?


Yes, it's been discussed. Repeatedly.
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