Author Topic: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion  (Read 181181 times)

theolympians

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #1100 on: April 19, 2018, 06:31:36 PM »
"I haven't stepped in here"

Surf

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #1101 on: April 20, 2018, 11:06:13 PM »
Now that the prices have come down, it seems there's less people shilling all over this thread. However, there is still a ton of hilarious scams going on.

https://cryptovest.com/news/another-scam-ico-savedroid-founder-exits-with-50m-to-chill-on-a-beach/

ICOs are in desperate need of regulation.

That said, see followup link at top of article here:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/over-50-million-savedroid-ico-135731412.html

tl;dr apparently German sense of humor didn't come through correctly as this was an awful publicity stunt, not an exit scam, so far as we know at this point.

FWIW I do not own and have no intentions of owning SaveDroid.

Shunning the entirety of the crypto space by pointing out the most egregiously flawed / illicit projects is like pointing out the third party chinese counterfeiters plaguing amazon that are ripping off legitimate small businesses with impunity and saying therefore amazon must have no value.

To make high quality decisions get educated about the impact of the technology and its most promising projects, rather than looking for the most rotten apple in order to disregard the whole bunch.

runbikerun

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #1102 on: April 21, 2018, 02:17:24 AM »
Now that the prices have come down, it seems there's less people shilling all over this thread. However, there is still a ton of hilarious scams going on.

https://cryptovest.com/news/another-scam-ico-savedroid-founder-exits-with-50m-to-chill-on-a-beach/

ICOs are in desperate need of regulation.

That said, see followup link at top of article here:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/over-50-million-savedroid-ico-135731412.html

tl;dr apparently German sense of humor didn't come through correctly as this was an awful publicity stunt, not an exit scam, so far as we know at this point.

FWIW I do not own and have no intentions of owning SaveDroid.

Shunning the entirety of the crypto space by pointing out the most egregiously flawed / illicit projects is like pointing out the third party chinese counterfeiters plaguing amazon that are ripping off legitimate small businesses with impunity and saying therefore amazon must have no value.

To make high quality decisions get educated about the impact of the technology and its most promising projects, rather than looking for the most rotten apple in order to disregard the whole bunch.

The biggest exchange on the planet is accused of artificially pumping fake dollars into the market to shore up Bitcoin prices while the exchange's owners try to find a real-world bank willing to deal with them. The biggest exchange on the planet before that collapsed as a result of a colossal robbery. The biggest cryptocurrency has been publicly described as a bubble by the world's leading authority on bubbles, the founder of the most dominant software company on earth, the head of one of the planet's largest banks, and the most consistently successful investor in history. The entire market bounces violently up and down, completely unmoored from reality, while convincing analyses demonstrate that price moves in the past have been the result of deliberate market manipulation. This is nothing like dismissing Amazon on the basis of some dodgy merchants; it's far deeper and more pervasive, to the extent that we have absolutely no idea whether the prices currently being quoted bear any relevance to what they might be in five years.

I have still not seen a single case of a cryptocurrency price being supported with specific reference to a well-presented breakdown of the market being targeted, a SWOT analysis of the crypto's position relative to incumbents in the field, a sober estimate of the percentage of the market that can realistically be captured over the following three to five years, and an explanation of the dollar value of capturing that share of the market. This is absolute bread-and-butter stuff for any publicly traded company, and indeed for any company seeking investment from an outside source, but it's more or less utterly absent from the crypto sphere, because nobody investing in crypto is looking for it. The entire marketplace is infected with a get-rich-quick mentality, mixed with a fairly unpleasant libertarian dislike of government, and the kind of thing that would be regarded as an absolute minimum standard in terms of business reporting is simply not bothered with. I still have not seen a single case of a cryptocurrency with a stable price correlated closely with its actual prospects for success.

sol

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #1103 on: April 22, 2018, 06:54:15 PM »
The entire marketplace is infected with a get-rich-quick mentality, mixed with a fairly unpleasant libertarian dislike of government, and the kind of thing that would be regarded as an absolute minimum standard in terms of business reporting is simply not bothered with.

This weekend I had some lenthly conversations with one of my friends who is an active crypto miner and "investor", and he made a pretty convincing case that cryptos are now played much like penny stocks.  He says no one views them as a serious investment.  They don't even attempt to deny the blatantly illegal pump and dump schemes that characterize the marketplace. 

All he see is a wildly fluctuating unregulated asset class rife with speculators, some of which are organized crime and some of which are clueless housewives, and he thinks there is money to be made (or potentially lost) playing the waves.  He doesn't have any illusions that cryptocurrency is going to supplant the USD.  He just thinks that, like penny stocks, this is a high-risk game in which you can 10x or 100x your investment in a matter of weeks, with a little bit of luck and slightly more knowledge than the average crypto investor (who has virtually nil).

From his perspective, this whole thing makes a lot more sense to me.  There is no future in it.  Of course it's a bubble.  It's 50% fraud and 50% pyramid scheme, and every serious investor should stay far far away.  But!  It's also a legitimate "get rich quick" scheme just like penny stocks are, if you can get in and out early on each artificially manipulated price wave, precisely because so many people are getting fleeced after buying into the hype.  HODL is for suckers.  Learn to watch the markets and time your exits, and there is real money to be made in the short term if you're morally flexible enough to embrace it.
« Last Edit: April 22, 2018, 07:18:35 PM by sol »

Bicycle_B

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #1104 on: April 22, 2018, 07:13:59 PM »
Sol!  Today is April 21, not April 1!

:)

Surf

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #1105 on: April 22, 2018, 11:57:54 PM »
Now that the prices have come down, it seems there's less people shilling all over this thread. However, there is still a ton of hilarious scams going on.

https://cryptovest.com/news/another-scam-ico-savedroid-founder-exits-with-50m-to-chill-on-a-beach/

ICOs are in desperate need of regulation.

That said, see followup link at top of article here:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/over-50-million-savedroid-ico-135731412.html

tl;dr apparently German sense of humor didn't come through correctly as this was an awful publicity stunt, not an exit scam, so far as we know at this point.

FWIW I do not own and have no intentions of owning SaveDroid.

Shunning the entirety of the crypto space by pointing out the most egregiously flawed / illicit projects is like pointing out the third party chinese counterfeiters plaguing amazon that are ripping off legitimate small businesses with impunity and saying therefore amazon must have no value.

To make high quality decisions get educated about the impact of the technology and its most promising projects, rather than looking for the most rotten apple in order to disregard the whole bunch.

The biggest exchange on the planet is accused of artificially pumping fake dollars into the market to shore up Bitcoin prices while the exchange's owners try to find a real-world bank willing to deal with them. The biggest exchange on the planet before that collapsed as a result of a colossal robbery. The biggest cryptocurrency has been publicly described as a bubble by the world's leading authority on bubbles, the founder of the most dominant software company on earth, the head of one of the planet's largest banks, and the most consistently successful investor in history. The entire market bounces violently up and down, completely unmoored from reality, while convincing analyses demonstrate that price moves in the past have been the result of deliberate market manipulation. This is nothing like dismissing Amazon on the basis of some dodgy merchants; it's far deeper and more pervasive, to the extent that we have absolutely no idea whether the prices currently being quoted bear any relevance to what they might be in five years.

I have still not seen a single case of a cryptocurrency price being supported with specific reference to a well-presented breakdown of the market being targeted, a SWOT analysis of the crypto's position relative to incumbents in the field, a sober estimate of the percentage of the market that can realistically be captured over the following three to five years, and an explanation of the dollar value of capturing that share of the market. This is absolute bread-and-butter stuff for any publicly traded company, and indeed for any company seeking investment from an outside source, but it's more or less utterly absent from the crypto sphere, because nobody investing in crypto is looking for it. The entire marketplace is infected with a get-rich-quick mentality, mixed with a fairly unpleasant libertarian dislike of government, and the kind of thing that would be regarded as an absolute minimum standard in terms of business reporting is simply not bothered with. I still have not seen a single case of a cryptocurrency with a stable price correlated closely with its actual prospects for success.

Your points are distinct from BattlaPs one-and-done exit scam link. 
FWIW the chinese counterfeiters on amazon is a much bigger problem than "some dodgy merchants." Legitimate small business are being crowded out of their own sales space with no recourse whatsoever, while amazon's own products (The amazonbasics line specifically) play by a different set of rules and do not permit 3rd party foreign merchants to offer their products for sale or resale.

The altcoin space is the wild west, not in a good way.  It has market manipulation issues and there are very real scams out there.  There are some promising projects too but they are so far away from becoming established / successful.  Low signal:noise right now but there are interesting things being worked on.
 
Bitcoin has indeed been decried as a bubble, and that bubble has burst four times.  It's also been declared dead, regularly, since its inception.  Yet the number of users continues to increase.  Venezuelans are using it to order goods online as the Bolivar has failed them.  They don't care if bill gates thinks its a bubble, they just want to be able to buy stuff on amazon, which you can do - buy gift cards with btc and then use them at amazon.

The market being targeted by btc is "people who have an internet connection and have use for frictionless, secure transactions with low fees requiring no central authority."  How big that market winds up being is yet to be determined.   Yes exchanges have been hacked and yes it's an abstract concept that doesn't fit into classic corporate evaluations, because it's not a corporation.  And it actually works, if you take the time to learn about it / use it.  To date it is the most elegant solution to the problem of trust that anyone has come up with.

The reason for long term potential is the ability to fix problems that are baked in to our current way of doing business - ID theft, the high cost of requiring banks to facilitate economic transactions, the 10 to 4 mon-fri hourly restrictions, etc.  The earliest and most obvious use cases are the ones where systems have failed completely(eg venezuela), but it's the prospect of reducing / eliminating systemic problems in stable countries, and the increased userbase that would create,  that gives it the asymmetrical risk/reward and potential upside.

The amazon analogy is to simply show that finding one element that is categorically broken/illegal is to miss the entire point of educating oneself on the big picture in order to make high quality decisions. 

runbikerun

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #1106 on: April 23, 2018, 02:51:19 AM »
Why is is that every time cryptocurrency advocates reach for a real-world use case, they end up talking about Venezuela?

Oh, I remember: it's because it took the near-total collapse of civil society and the rule of law, combined with an economic meltdown that's virtually impossible for any country in the world without oil, to make bitcoin seem like an attractive option as a currency. And even then, trading volumes within Venezuela are running at about USD 5m a week, or about 0.1% of economic activity in Venezuela.

But sure, keep telling yourself that cryptocurrency skeptics aren't educating themselves sufficiently on the big picture to make high quality decisions.
« Last Edit: April 24, 2018, 12:15:45 AM by runbikerun »

SparkyPeanut

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #1107 on: April 23, 2018, 07:57:12 PM »
The entire marketplace is infected with a get-rich-quick mentality, mixed with a fairly unpleasant libertarian dislike of government, and the kind of thing that would be regarded as an absolute minimum standard in terms of business reporting is simply not bothered with.

This weekend I had some lenthly conversations with one of my friends who is an active crypto miner and "investor", and he made a pretty convincing case that cryptos are now played much like penny stocks.  He says no one views them as a serious investment.  They don't even attempt to deny the blatantly illegal pump and dump schemes that characterize the marketplace. 

All he see is a wildly fluctuating unregulated asset class rife with speculators, some of which are organized crime and some of which are clueless housewives, and he thinks there is money to be made (or potentially lost) playing the waves.  He doesn't have any illusions that cryptocurrency is going to supplant the USD.  He just thinks that, like penny stocks, this is a high-risk game in which you can 10x or 100x your investment in a matter of weeks, with a little bit of luck and slightly more knowledge than the average crypto investor (who has virtually nil).

From his perspective, this whole thing makes a lot more sense to me.  There is no future in it.  Of course it's a bubble.  It's 50% fraud and 50% pyramid scheme, and every serious investor should stay far far away.  But!  It's also a legitimate "get rich quick" scheme just like penny stocks are, if you can get in and out early on each artificially manipulated price wave, precisely because so many people are getting fleeced after buying into the hype.  HODL is for suckers.  Learn to watch the markets and time your exits, and there is real money to be made in the short term if you're morally flexible enough to embrace it.

Rubbish

Surf

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #1108 on: April 24, 2018, 12:45:31 AM »
Why is is that every time cryptocurrency advocates reach for a real-world use case, they end up talking about Venezuela?

Oh, I remember: it's because it took the near-total collapse of civil society and the rule of law, combined with an economic meltdown that's virtually impossible for any country in the world without oil, to make bitcoin seem like an attractive option as a currency. And even then, trading volumes within Venezuela are running at about USD 5m a week, or about 0.1% of economic activity in Venezuela.

So you're saying that the failure of a state backed currency created a situation where the population is finding btc useful for both store of value against hyperinflation, and ability to make purchases that would be otherwise impossible.  I don't think we are in disagreement.

Quote
But sure, keep telling yourself that cryptocurrency skeptical aren't educating themselves sufficiently on the big picture to make high quality decisions.

I'm skeptical, and I hope others are too. 

Your word choice indicates that you have mentally written off the entire crypto space and have a healthy amount of condescension for those who find potential in it.  That's okay.


I edited this like 30 times.  I'm putting way too much effort into this.  Here's my waste of an hour trying to explain my POV:


crypto raises difficult and sometimes painful ideas about the nature of money in general and how to handle potential future economic disasters.   This can interfere with people's ability to evaluate data effectively.

Maybe it's just a side effect of a career evaluating risk and assigning effective probabilities, but the idea of 0% and 100% are only theoretical concepts to me when dealing with such complex entities as economies and currencies.  Statements such as "the stock market always goes up" or "crypto is guaranteed to fail" have no semantic content as they are mathematically indefensible.

Low probability events such as a global impact of transformative fintech like btc, or a major economic depression / debt bubble pop of a major country can have tremendous consequences.  It behooves us to try and accurately assess those small differences and use the data we have available to plan for those low probability events in some fashion.

Preparedness does not guarantee solvency.  But head-in-the-sand approaches maximize failure rates when faced with large scale outlier events.

BTC is asymmetrical risk coupled with a potential hedge/recourse against negative outlier events. 

Arguments such as Bill Gates says it's bad! and Exchanges got hacked! utterly miss the big picture.  There's a long line of talking heads decrying it, and others exhorting it. They're all speculating about future scenarios through the filter of their own biases.

Exchanges have been hacked - this indicates regulation is needed, and is the same problem JP Morgan faced when it got hacked.  It's an argument that blockchain has a valid use case, that centralized financial entities are disproportionately vulnerable.

I'm going to keep socking my retirement money into VTSAX.  I read JCollin's stuff, it's great.  I also read many anti-stock market analyses as well.  I have no illusions about 100% success rates, but it's a good bet and tax incentives are robust, it's the best way to play the game.  I am also doing my best to be prepared in the event that the rules of the game change, that another game(btc) turns out to be more profitable, or the game breaks altogether.

Surf

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #1109 on: April 24, 2018, 12:52:09 AM »
The entire marketplace is infected with a get-rich-quick mentality, mixed with a fairly unpleasant libertarian dislike of government, and the kind of thing that would be regarded as an absolute minimum standard in terms of business reporting is simply not bothered with.

This weekend I had some lenthly conversations with one of my friends who is an active crypto miner and "investor", and he made a pretty convincing case that cryptos are now played much like penny stocks.  He says no one views them as a serious investment.  They don't even attempt to deny the blatantly illegal pump and dump schemes that characterize the marketplace. 

All he see is a wildly fluctuating unregulated asset class rife with speculators, some of which are organized crime and some of which are clueless housewives, and he thinks there is money to be made (or potentially lost) playing the waves.  He doesn't have any illusions that cryptocurrency is going to supplant the USD.  He just thinks that, like penny stocks, this is a high-risk game in which you can 10x or 100x your investment in a matter of weeks, with a little bit of luck and slightly more knowledge than the average crypto investor (who has virtually nil).

From his perspective, this whole thing makes a lot more sense to me.  There is no future in it.  Of course it's a bubble.  It's 50% fraud and 50% pyramid scheme, and every serious investor should stay far far away.  But!  It's also a legitimate "get rich quick" scheme just like penny stocks are, if you can get in and out early on each artificially manipulated price wave, precisely because so many people are getting fleeced after buying into the hype.  HODL is for suckers.  Learn to watch the markets and time your exits, and there is real money to be made in the short term if you're morally flexible enough to embrace it.

It's difficult to determine whether the moral high-horsing, rampant condescension, egoic characterization of the "others" as disproportionately criminals, or splash of sexism is the most offensive.  Hmm.  Definitely the sexism.

runbikerun

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #1110 on: April 24, 2018, 03:34:52 AM »
"Statements such as 'crypto is guaranteed to fail' have no semantic content as they are mathematically indefensible."

There is no way you are serious here. This is math-based absolutism applied to a field that doesn't deal in absolutes. Replace the word "crypto" in your statement with the phrase "PayUsToMailHumanShitToYou.com", and read it back to yourself. Nobody on the forum uses phrases like you've described as descriptors of mathematical certainty, and it's bullshit sophistry to act as though they do and then pretend you're smarter than everyone else for spotting a mathematical error in a non-mathematical sentence.

If you're hedging against a crypto future by buying a small amount of crypto, how do you evaluate which crypto is the most likely winner? It's like stock picking, except none of the companies will reveal anything about their finances. How do you evaluate the likely future value of the crypto once you've picked what you think is the winner? Successfully choosing Ethereum as the currency of the future, but buying it at 300 dollars only to find out in the future that it's only worth fifty, is worse than doing absolutely nothing.

If you think crypto taking over is a possibility worth hedging against, the smart option isn't to pick a couple of random coins and hope you're the world's greatest stock picker. The smart option in that case is to load your investment portfolio with companies heavy on stock and light on cash. Companies with significant debt denominated in dollars and significant current assets will gain in such a scenario, with no risk of losing out by picking the wrong crypto - so someone who was serious about covering the possibility would be increasing their holdings with that kind of company, rather than bidding up a cryptocurrency that requires a catastrophic collapse of civil society to see its share of transactions rise to one-tenth of one percent of economic activity.

sol

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #1111 on: April 24, 2018, 08:52:21 AM »
It's difficult to determine whether the moral high-horsing, rampant condescension, egoic characterization of the "others" as disproportionately criminals, or splash of sexism is the most offensive.  Hmm.  Definitely the sexism.

Lol!  Did I strike a nerve somehow?  Aggressive personal attacks against an individual are not the normal way we operate here, but I'll give you a pass because you're still finding your footing.  My condescension is benevolent.

So let's get back on track, and try to address the contents of the argument at hand with logical and reasoned responses.  I'll go first!  There is no intended sexism in my previous post, not at you nor at anyone in general.  Was it my use of "housewives" to describe people swept up in the crypto craze that you found objectionable? 

And I thought people like you would be happy that I presented a justification for buying crypto:  money changes hands!  Just like penny stocks, large sums are gained and lost in crypto relatively quickly, for reasons unrelated to fundamentals, and if you're good and/or lucky you can be on the receiving end of that transfer. 

As to the "criminal" charge, I'm not the one characterizing the crypto base that way.  The FBI did that.  The exchanges themselves do that.  You've done that!  So why all the pent-up anger?  You seem to have a lot of frustration on this issue, and it's harshing your mellow, man.  Maybe take a little vacation and try to relax a little?  That always works wonders for me.

Now that we've addressed your personal attacks on me, I will patiently await your attacks on the arguments that precipitated your personal attacks.  Those are more welcome.

Surf

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #1112 on: April 24, 2018, 12:25:51 PM »
"Statements such as 'crypto is guaranteed to fail' have no semantic content as they are mathematically indefensible."

There is no way you are serious here. This is math-based absolutism applied to a field that doesn't deal in absolutes. Replace the word "crypto" in your statement with the phrase "PayUsToMailHumanShitToYou.com", and read it back to yourself. Nobody on the forum uses phrases like you've described as descriptors of mathematical certainty, and it's bullshit sophistry to act as though they do and then pretend you're smarter than everyone else for spotting a mathematical error in a non-mathematical sentence.

I agree math-based absolutism does not work in fields that are too complex for such black-and-white decision making.

The gist of many of the previous replies is, in essence, that crypto is destined to fail.  Your hypothetical company about feces seems to have a very low success rate, but humans are unpredictable and perhaps it would find a niche market among fertilizer enthusiasts / fetishists / pranksters.

These replies often come from the frame of mind that it's inconceivable for this new technology to have any long term impact or success, because of short term problems. 
Use bitcoin for a short while and it becomes clear for example that Western Union is facing a future similar to Kodak in the 90s, unless they can adapt.  The ability to remit value across great distances no longer requires an intermediary to take a large cut.


Quote
If you're hedging against a crypto future by buying a small amount of crypto, how do you evaluate which crypto is the most likely winner? It's like stock picking, except none of the companies will reveal anything about their finances. How do you evaluate the likely future value of the crypto once you've picked what you think is the winner? Successfully choosing Ethereum as the currency of the future, but buying it at 300 dollars only to find out in the future that it's only worth fifty, is worse than doing absolutely nothing.

This is an excellent question.  It occurs to me that this may be a rhetorical argument to prove the futility of such an endeavor, but here goes.
Each blockchain is a communication network that transmits value. Metcalfe's law (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metcalfe%27s_law) gives us a reasonable estimation framework for the utility of said network, and with supply fixed/limited for most cryptos it is simply the one with the largest user base that is the most profitable, and most likely to succeed, at any given time.  Cryptos are strongly correlated with one another so pick the top couple and rebalance periodically and your bases should be covered pretty well.

Quote
If you think crypto taking over is a possibility worth hedging against, the smart option isn't to pick a couple of random coins and hope you're the world's greatest stock picker. The smart option in that case is to load your investment portfolio with companies heavy on stock and light on cash. Companies with significant debt denominated in dollars and significant current assets will gain in such a scenario, with no risk of losing out by picking the wrong crypto - so someone who was serious about covering the possibility would be increasing their holdings with that kind of company, rather than bidding up a cryptocurrency that requires a catastrophic collapse of civil society to see its share of transactions rise to one-tenth of one percent of economic activity.

Everyone has different risk tolerances and different methods for making contingency plans.  It's comforting  to think that such a plan will eliminate risk, but that does not make it so. 

I have very little faith in the long term viability of the majority of the ~1500 cryptocurrencies.  Or in the long term viability of trillions of dollars of ever escalating debt for modern countries.  Or in the long term viability of the relentless consumer culture that drives this 100+year growth frenzy.  Or the increasing amount of money being siphoned out of the equities markets while providing no value.

Therefore it makes sense to me to have as distributed an allocation as possible to defray risk, acknowledging that individual components of the portfolio will have outsized risk, but largely for different future scenarios.   I would be plenty happy if the next 50 years go by and crypto disappears and the status quo is maintained, aside from a shift to sustainable consumption to preserve our planet's future.

Surf

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #1113 on: April 24, 2018, 12:40:57 PM »
It's difficult to determine whether the moral high-horsing, rampant condescension, egoic characterization of the "others" as disproportionately criminals, or splash of sexism is the most offensive.  Hmm.  Definitely the sexism.

Lol!  Did I strike a nerve somehow?  Aggressive personal attacks against an individual are not the normal way we operate here, but I'll give you a pass because you're still finding your footing.  My condescension is benevolent.

So let's get back on track, and try to address the contents of the argument at hand with logical and reasoned responses.  I'll go first!  There is no intended sexism in my previous post, not at you nor at anyone in general.  Was it my use of "housewives" to describe people swept up in the crypto craze that you found objectionable? 

The "clueless housewives" bit of sexism struck a nerve, yes. 

I'm glad your condescension is benevolent.  I was under the impression that candidly calling people out on their BS was kind of the way things operated around here.

Quote

And I thought people like you would be happy that I presented a justification for buying crypto:  money changes hands!  Just like penny stocks, large sums are gained and lost in crypto relatively quickly, for reasons unrelated to fundamentals, and if you're good and/or lucky you can be on the receiving end of that transfer. 

"people like you" ??
 
You seem to have very strong opinions about who you think I am, and it doesn't seem to be based at all on the things I say other than I find it possible that crypto will have a role in our future society, and you don't.

Quote
As to the "criminal" charge, I'm not the one characterizing the crypto base that way.  The FBI did that.  The exchanges themselves do that.  You've done that!  So why all the pent-up anger?  You seem to have a lot of frustration on this issue, and it's harshing your mellow, man.  Maybe take a little vacation and try to relax a little?  That always works wonders for me.

Now that we've addressed your personal attacks on me, I will patiently await your attacks on the arguments that precipitated your personal attacks.  Those are more welcome.

If there's any point at which I said half of crypto users were criminals and the other half were clueless rubes, I misspoke.  I'm reasonably certain the major exchanges have not issued any such statement either?  I could be wrong, as usual.

It's fine dude, you're allowed to your opinions.  And you're probably right, all of crypto is criminals and idiots.  You're safe!  Because you're smart enough to avoid the trap that all the criminals and idiots are setting for you.  Hooray!  Back to the high horse.


runbikerun

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #1114 on: April 24, 2018, 01:04:55 PM »
"Use bitcoin for a short while and it becomes clear for example that Western Union is facing a future similar to Kodak in the 90s, unless they can adapt.  The ability to remit value across great distances no longer requires an intermediary to take a large cut."

As per the below link, a single bitcoin transfer now uses up about two hundred and fifteen kWh. I don't know where you are, but in the EU that's about forty quid's worth of electricity. And unlike Western Union, the advancement of technology more or less guarantees that figure will go upwards.

https://motherboard.vice.com/en_us/article/ywbbpm/bitcoin-mining-electricity-consumption-ethereum-energy-climate-change

Pro-crypto postings very often seem to start from an uncontroversial beginning ("banks are charging us too much") before leaping immediately to a drastic conclusion ("bitcoin is the future"). Banks are worried about losing sources of profit, but they're barely even registering cryptocurrencies as a threat: fintech companies are what's scaring the crap out of them. I'm in the EU rather than the States, and there's an enormous amount of change in the financial services sector, more or less none of which involves cryptocurrencies, and almost all of which involves customers being offered better services for less money. Crypto advocates are frequently right that a given incumbent service provider is expensive, cumbersome and difficult to use, but they're almost invariably wrong when they assume that the best solution is to switch to crypto.

Revolut enables instant FX transfers at more or less the mid-rate with no fees, which is astounding. N26 is offering a current account that's close to being best in class in every market they operate in, and account charges are effectively zero. There's some curiosity about blockchain, and whether it will turn out to be useful, but cryptocurrencies themselves are not what banks and other incumbent financial institutions are worried about. Visa and Mastercard, for example, are facing what could be an existential threat in the EU from new payment service providers thanks to the second payment services directive, and none of those providers will be operating via cryptocurrencies. Mortgage lenders are worried about the prospects of a Dutch-style shakeup, where pension funds saw weakness and carved out a fifth of the mortgage market in a couple of years. Pension funds, in turn, live in mortal fear of Vanguard deciding to move into the European pension markets - when Vanguard opened an office in London a few years back, the announcement alone produced a visible drop in the share price of incumbent pension providers. People and companies are carving chunks out of each other's profit margins all over Europe's financial sector, and crypto is almost entirely irrelevant to it all. It's regarded as an object of curiosity at best, and a catastrophic bubble at worst.
« Last Edit: April 24, 2018, 01:21:17 PM by runbikerun »

Telecaster

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #1115 on: April 24, 2018, 02:19:27 PM »
"Statements such as 'crypto is guaranteed to fail' have no semantic content as they are mathematically indefensible."

There is no way you are serious here. This is math-based absolutism applied to a field that doesn't deal in absolutes. Replace the word "crypto" in your statement with the phrase "PayUsToMailHumanShitToYou.com", and read it back to yourself. Nobody on the forum uses phrases like you've described as descriptors of mathematical certainty, and it's bullshit sophistry to act as though they do and then pretend you're smarter than everyone else for spotting a mathematical error in a non-mathematical sentence.

I agree math-based absolutism does not work in fields that are too complex for such black-and-white decision making.

The gist of many of the previous replies is, in essence, that crypto is destined to fail.  Your hypothetical company about feces seems to have a very low success rate, but humans are unpredictable and perhaps it would find a niche market among fertilizer enthusiasts / fetishists / pranksters.

These replies often come from the frame of mind that it's inconceivable for this new technology to have any long term impact or success, because of short term problems. 
Use bitcoin for a short while and it becomes clear for example that Western Union is facing a future similar to Kodak in the 90s, unless they can adapt.  The ability to remit value across great distances no longer requires an intermediary to take a large cut.

I think this technology will have little long term impact or success because of structural, not short term, problems.  Western Union is an interesting example.  In today's world of electronic bill pay offered by every bank, as well as Paypal and credit cards, what on Earth do we need Western Union for?  The answer is in many parts of the world people don't have access to a traditional banking system, and need to be able to send and receive cash.   Bitcoin isn't cash, so it doesn't help with that problem.   As an aside, while WU is a legitimate company, the irreversibly of WU transactions and accompanying scams have essentially eliminated it as a viable method of money transfer except for when both parties already know each other because the mere mention of WU screams "scam" to most people.  That's not a bright future for Bitcoin. 

Another structural problem, which is actually two structural problems, has to do with contracts.  Namely, our economy (and some say civilization) relies on the ability to pay for goods and services now for delivery in the future, and receive goods and services now, but pay for them in the future.  Mortgages, wages, Amazon Prime, construction, your bar tab, all operate on this principle.  But it is all supported because most contracts are legally binding, there are are legal ways to seek relief in the event of noncompliance. 

The other structural problem is that you can't enter into contracts priced in Bitcoin. I know down to the penny how much my mortgage payment will be ten years from now.  But there is no way I could price it in Bitcoin because the price isn't stable.  You can't even price a contact this week in Bitcoin.  Most businesses have margins that too small for that risk.  Transaction costs also play into this, because while you know how much MasterCard will be charging you next month, you have no idea what the Bitcoin transactions will cost you.   You can't do business like that.  Maybe as a novelty, but it doesn't scale.  The easy solution is don't accept Bitcoin. 

The next structural problem is that Bitcoin doesn't scale.  Because of the blocksize limit, the theoretical number of transactions per second is also limited--to a tiny number.  Far too tiny to support the economy of even a reasonably sized city.    There are proposed workarounds, but then you don't have Bitcoin, do you?  You have some other coin called BitcoinFun or something.  And you better get on the BitcoinFun fork fast before everyone stops using the old Bitcoin and its value goes away.  On the flip side it doesn't matter if a dollar bill was issued 20 years ago, or 20 minutes ago.  It still spends the same. 

The next structural problems is that in almost every country (maybe every country, I dunno) taxes and wages must be paid in legal currency.  Since taxes and wages are typically two of the biggest if not the two biggest expenses of any business, businesses need dollars to stay solvent.   You gotta make payroll and you gotta have dollars to do that.  And let's say you booked a lot of sales at Christmas when Bitcoin was high.  Now in April taxes are due, and Uncle Sam wants his cut and so you go to sell some of your Bitcoin which you've been saving just for this occasion.    Oops, Bitcoin is half what it was, but Uncle Sam doesn't care.  He wants the December profits even though that money evaporated, which could be very painful.  Like shut down your business and seize your assets painful.   The easy solution is don't accept Bitcoin. 

I could go on and on but hopefully you see my point.  The last point alone is reason why Bitcoin or any crypto will never see any significant market penetration.  There are too many structural problems. 


Tonyahu

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #1116 on: April 24, 2018, 11:54:07 PM »
The entire marketplace is infected with a get-rich-quick mentality, mixed with a fairly unpleasant libertarian dislike of government, and the kind of thing that would be regarded as an absolute minimum standard in terms of business reporting is simply not bothered with.

This weekend I had some lenthly conversations with one of my friends who is an active crypto miner and "investor", and he made a pretty convincing case that cryptos are now played much like penny stocks.  He says no one views them as a serious investment.  They don't even attempt to deny the blatantly illegal pump and dump schemes that characterize the marketplace. 

All he see is a wildly fluctuating unregulated asset class rife with speculators, some of which are organized crime and some of which are clueless housewives, and he thinks there is money to be made (or potentially lost) playing the waves.  He doesn't have any illusions that cryptocurrency is going to supplant the USD.  He just thinks that, like penny stocks, this is a high-risk game in which you can 10x or 100x your investment in a matter of weeks, with a little bit of luck and slightly more knowledge than the average crypto investor (who has virtually nil).

From his perspective, this whole thing makes a lot more sense to me.  There is no future in it.  Of course it's a bubble.  It's 50% fraud and 50% pyramid scheme, and every serious investor should stay far far away.  But!  It's also a legitimate "get rich quick" scheme just like penny stocks are, if you can get in and out early on each artificially manipulated price wave, precisely because so many people are getting fleeced after buying into the hype.  HODL is for suckers.  Learn to watch the markets and time your exits, and there is real money to be made in the short term if you're morally flexible enough to embrace it.

I leave for a few months and as expected, you still still over here all salty :P
 
Hope everyone bought the dip! I plan to add to the equities bucket once we are down another 10-20%.

Cheers!

Tonyahu

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #1117 on: April 25, 2018, 11:05:14 AM »
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/04/25/nasdaq-is-open-to-becoming-cryptocurrency-exchange-ceo-says.html

Just like you old farts had an entire generation buying equities with you in retirement accounts, it's easy to see where the millennial generation will be putting their (albeit less) money towards.

Look macro, play it accordingly.
« Last Edit: April 25, 2018, 11:09:17 AM by Tonyahu »

runbikerun

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #1118 on: April 26, 2018, 12:04:16 AM »
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/04/25/nasdaq-is-open-to-becoming-cryptocurrency-exchange-ceo-says.html

Just like you old farts had an entire generation buying equities with you in retirement accounts, it's easy to see where the millennial generation will be putting their (albeit less) money towards.

Look macro, play it accordingly.

Dismissive attitude to people who disagree, comment that doesn't actually relate to the link provided, wild claim offered with no supporting evidence. We have a trifecta.

Tonyahu

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #1119 on: April 26, 2018, 10:18:19 AM »
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/04/25/nasdaq-is-open-to-becoming-cryptocurrency-exchange-ceo-says.html

Just like you old farts had an entire generation buying equities with you in retirement accounts, it's easy to see where the millennial generation will be putting their (albeit less) money towards.

Look macro, play it accordingly.

Dismissive attitude to people who disagree, comment that doesn't actually relate to the link provided, wild claim offered with no supporting evidence. We have a trifecta.

1) He has consistently not followed the rules of the thread.

2) I am glad you ignored the link, fits your agenda.

3) Ask 10 millennial's what they think about Stock Market and then ask them about Bitcoin.



sherr

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #1120 on: April 26, 2018, 11:40:35 AM »
3) Ask 10 millennial's what they think about Stock Market and then ask them about Bitcoin.

I am an (older) millennial. I work with a lot of people younger than me. As a programmer, in a high-tech company. Every single person I know thinks that Cryptocurrencies are at best a silly way to speculate (not invest), at worst an outright scam. There are some people around here who are pro-crypto, but they are a small minority. Nowhere near the number of people that invest in the stock market.

If you think otherwise I suspect it is because you have intentionally surrounded yourself with like-minded people. Which is not necessarily bad, but you might want to watch out for group-think when making significant financial decisions.

sherr

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #1121 on: April 26, 2018, 11:47:24 AM »
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/04/25/nasdaq-is-open-to-becoming-cryptocurrency-exchange-ceo-says.html

2) I am glad you ignored the link, fits your agenda.

I also have no idea what you think this proves. Of course the CEO of an exchange is interested in expanding his business and being an exchange for more stuff. Why wouldn't he be? More exchange fees to charge, more income for his business. That says nothing at all about whether cryptocurrencies are a good thing to "invest" in.
« Last Edit: April 26, 2018, 11:50:06 AM by sherr »

waltworks

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #1122 on: April 26, 2018, 12:04:07 PM »
I'm a couple of years too old to be considered a Millennial (the cutoff is 1980 or so, right?) but my wife, siblings, and most of our friends are millennials. Tech savvy hipster ones, too. Not one that I know of gives a rat's ass about cryptocurrencies, and the ones that invest at all invest in... wait for it... the stock market, the bond market, and real estate.

Even if crypto completely replaced all other forms of money, why would anyone stop investing in the stock market? They have basically nothing to do with each other - the companies involved (mostly) make actual products and provide actual services. They can take payment in dollars, or bitcoin, or rare comic books, or whatever, and that business will still be just as valuable and just as worth investing in regardless.

Now, some big crypto company might someday become the next Visa, or something, and maybe be publicly listed and worth investing in. If you got in on the ground floor, you might end up rich, just like any new and upcoming company. But that company won't kill off Microsoft or Unilever, it can only really displace companies that are purely providing payment processing services.

-W

GuitarStv

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #1123 on: April 26, 2018, 12:12:18 PM »
I'm a millennial.  Crypto is not an investment . . . generously it can be called speculation.  The stock market by way of index funds is (in contrast) a pretty decent place to park your money to achieve long term appreciation that beats inflation.
« Last Edit: April 26, 2018, 12:57:32 PM by GuitarStv »

runbikerun

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #1124 on: April 26, 2018, 01:15:01 PM »
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/04/25/nasdaq-is-open-to-becoming-cryptocurrency-exchange-ceo-says.html

Just like you old farts had an entire generation buying equities with you in retirement accounts, it's easy to see where the millennial generation will be putting their (albeit less) money towards.

Look macro, play it accordingly.

Dismissive attitude to people who disagree, comment that doesn't actually relate to the link provided, wild claim offered with no supporting evidence. We have a trifecta.

1) He has consistently not followed the rules of the thread.

2) I am glad you ignored the link, fits your agenda.

3) Ask 10 millennial's what they think about Stock Market and then ask them about Bitcoin.

1: There are no rules in this thread. You don't get to arbitrarily decide upon rules for particular threads, because that's not how this forum works. If you want somewhere you don't have to see any dissenting opinion, go over to Reddit's crypto subs. Otherwise, you're not the arbiter of what's acceptable in a thread: the mods are. You're on a website whose front page flags a post with the title WHY BITCOIN IS DUMB, for fuck's sake.

2. That link proves the quadratic root of fuck all. It's literally the head of a stock exchange saying "maybe in the future we could be a crypto exchange". That's it. You've ignored the fact that the same person derided ICOs in the same article, for God's sake.

3. I'm a millennial. So are most of my friends. I don't know a single one who thinks Bitcoin is a good idea. Literally not a single one. I know plenty who think investing in index funds is a good idea, though.

Seriously, this is shitposting. You're putting up cheap garbage with no effort to support any of it. It's crappy behaviour and this forum deserves better than mindless crypto shilling. I'm becoming increasingly convinced that this is just trolling.

GuitarStv

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #1125 on: April 26, 2018, 01:23:14 PM »
0/4 millennials on board the cryptocurrency train.  Surely we can find just six more?  :P

seattlecyclone

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #1126 on: April 26, 2018, 01:56:42 PM »
0/4 millennials on board the cryptocurrency train.  Surely we can find just six more?  :P

Make that 0/5.

sol

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #1127 on: April 26, 2018, 02:00:51 PM »
Ya'll seem to be taking this way too seriously.  Do we really expect someone recommending a newfangled get rich quick scheme to come here with reasoned arguments?  To respond to critique with thoughtful consideration? 

Shitposting is the order of the day here.  I say we let them have their fun.  You can argue all you want, but like any ponzi scheme the "true believers" are only here to stir up interest and generate buzz among susceptible new buyers.  Your informed opinions are mere distractions to that effort, because they're not really talking to you.

sherr

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #1128 on: April 26, 2018, 02:10:19 PM »
Shitposting is the order of the day here.  I say we let them have their fun.  You can argue all you want, but like any ponzi scheme the "true believers" are only here to stir up interest and generate buzz among susceptible new buyers.

Well I don't disagree, but I think it would be a disservice to potential susceptible new buyers that may be reading this to just give up on the conversation entirely.

runbikerun

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #1129 on: April 26, 2018, 02:51:14 PM »
Ya'll seem to be taking this way too seriously.  Do we really expect someone recommending a newfangled get rich quick scheme to come here with reasoned arguments?  To respond to critique with thoughtful consideration? 

Shitposting is the order of the day here.  I say we let them have their fun.  You can argue all you want, but like any ponzi scheme the "true believers" are only here to stir up interest and generate buzz among susceptible new buyers.  Your informed opinions are mere distractions to that effort, because they're not really talking to you.

Fair point; I do react poorly to bad faith arguments...

Optimiser

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #1130 on: April 26, 2018, 03:15:48 PM »
0/4 millennials on board the cryptocurrency train.  Surely we can find just six more?  :P

Make that 0/5.

I'm a millennial. Currently 1% of my portfolio* is crypto the other 99% is in the stock market.

*I personally don't consider crypto to be investment or part of my portfolio, but I did some GPU mining and haven't sold off all of the proceeds yet.

So I guess we are up to .01/6

jambongris

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #1131 on: April 26, 2018, 03:37:16 PM »
0/4 millennials on board the cryptocurrency train.  Surely we can find just six more?  :P

Make that 0/5.

I'm a millennial. Currently 1% of my portfolio* is crypto the other 99% is in the stock market.

*I personally don't consider crypto to be investment or part of my portfolio, but I did some GPU mining and haven't sold off all of the proceeds yet.

So I guess we are up to .01/6

Another millennial who doesn’t “invest” in crypto and I can vouch for several others that don’t.

The only person I know that has admitted to investing in crypto is a middle aged (definitely not a millennial) coworker who was buying bitcoin back in December. I haven’t heard anything from them since.

nazar

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #1132 on: April 28, 2018, 03:45:38 PM »


Bicycle_B

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #1133 on: April 29, 2018, 06:52:57 PM »
The entire marketplace is infected with a get-rich-quick mentality, mixed with a fairly unpleasant libertarian dislike of government, and the kind of thing that would be regarded as an absolute minimum standard in terms of business reporting is simply not bothered with.

This weekend I had some lenthly conversations with one of my friends who is an active crypto miner and "investor", and he made a pretty convincing case that cryptos are now played much like penny stocks.  He says no one views them as a serious investment.  They don't even attempt to deny the blatantly illegal pump and dump schemes that characterize the marketplace. 

All he see is a wildly fluctuating unregulated asset class rife with speculators, some of which are organized crime and some of which are clueless housewives, and he thinks there is money to be made (or potentially lost) playing the waves.  He doesn't have any illusions that cryptocurrency is going to supplant the USD.  He just thinks that, like penny stocks, this is a high-risk game in which you can 10x or 100x your investment in a matter of weeks, with a little bit of luck and slightly more knowledge than the average crypto investor (who has virtually nil).

From his perspective, this whole thing makes a lot more sense to me.  There is no future in it.  Of course it's a bubble.  It's 50% fraud and 50% pyramid scheme, and every serious investor should stay far far away.  But!  It's also a legitimate "get rich quick" scheme just like penny stocks are, if you can get in and out early on each artificially manipulated price wave, precisely because so many people are getting fleeced after buying into the hype.  HODL is for suckers.  Learn to watch the markets and time your exits, and there is real money to be made in the short term if you're morally flexible enough to embrace it.

I leave for a few months and as expected, you still still over here all salty :P
 
Hope everyone bought the dip! I plan to add to the equities bucket once we are down another 10-20%.

Cheers!

Tonyahu, you're back!

I keep wondering what happened to your plan to sell much of your then-almost-enough-for-FIRE crypto holdings, ending up with roughly even buckets of cash, stock, real estate, crypto and something I can't remember.  So what happened?

Did you sell any crypto?  What are the proportions of various asset categories now?  At current market prices, is your portfolio (including crypto since you still have some) enough to support your FIRE, supposing that the 4% rule applies to all portions of it?

(Yes, naysayers, I know the Trinity study didn't include any crypto.  I'm just curious about our OP here.)

LessIsLess

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #1134 on: April 30, 2018, 07:35:13 AM »
These replies often come from the frame of mind that it's inconceivable for this new technology to have any long term impact or success, because of short term problems. 

Getting someone to change their frozen mind, might be harder than getting a space alien to visit Earth. 
Even if crypto had destroyed entire industries, the critics would still say it's a fraud.

waltworks

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #1135 on: April 30, 2018, 08:00:17 AM »
Keep in mind that it's also possible to believe in the long term possibilities of the technology AND simultaneously that there's no way to invest in said future right now. Remember the entire historical return of the US airline industry? It's zero. Zero. You can be incredibly successful and disruptive - and not make your investors a dime.

-W

shadow

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #1136 on: April 30, 2018, 10:51:34 AM »
Currently 1% of my portfolio* is crypto the other 99% is in the stock market.

This is sensible. As a speculator, you're taking alot of risks funding projects in a very challenging environment. You could lose it or you will deservedly gain substantial return. Hopefully, neither you or I have picked the enrons of crypto.






runbikerun

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #1137 on: May 01, 2018, 12:29:50 AM »
These replies often come from the frame of mind that it's inconceivable for this new technology to have any long term impact or success, because of short term problems. 

Getting someone to change their frozen mind, might be harder than getting a space alien to visit Earth. 
Even if crypto had destroyed entire industries, the critics would still say it's a fraud.

Oh, if crypto had eaten entire industries whole, I'd be absolutely willing to listen to a valuation somewhere around 3-4% of where it is now.

Bitcoin is just shy of being a decade old. By the time Google hit a decade, they had taken a wrecking ball to the advertising industry, the print news industry and the concept of non-academic reference texts. They'd virtually wiped out the field of email account providers and were about to take a hatchet to Nokia and Garmin simultaneously by releasing the first Android phones. And they'd gone public in 2004 to boot.

Google stock has appreciated at about 25-30% annually since IPO. Bitcoin is somewhere in the region of ten to a hundred times that rate. But yeah, it's the crypto sceptics who aren't thinking properly.

sol

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #1138 on: May 01, 2018, 12:51:34 AM »
Bitcoin is just shy of being a decade old. By the time Google hit a decade, they had taken a wrecking ball to the advertising industry, the print news industry and the concept of non-academic reference texts. They'd virtually wiped out the field of email account providers and were about to take a hatchet to Nokia and Garmin simultaneously by releasing the first Android phones. And they'd gone public in 2004 to boot.

See, you're still thinking in terms of fundamentals.  That's your problem.

Cryptos aren't valued the same way stocks are.  It's not about market penetration or upseting outdated business models or revenue streams or anything at all, really, except public perception aka hype.  The whole crypto business model is to publicly promote the idea until you convince new money (during a time in which the economy is flush with spare cash) to invest in a controlled finite supply, thus driving up the instantaneous price point to ridiculous levels and then using the single transaction price to estimate market cap.  Transactions are hard to execute on purpose and units are randomly destroyed all the time, thus depleting the supply and keeping the instantaneous price high.  This is how bitcoin can claim to be "worth" hundreds of billions of dollars based on a single buy order for $7k.  Even the most rudimentary business analysis reveals the absurdity of it.

So let all of that stuffy reliable analysis go!  Don't pretend there's a revenue stream or a use case, because it doesn't matter.  All that matter is finding a greater fool, which is why so many crypto enthusiasts are so keen to promote their ideas to an ever-widening audience.  Just like penny stocks, you can double or triple your money in a matter of hours, if you know what coin is being manipulated next, and this coordinated manipulation is exactly what turned a handful of 20-something trust funders with $10k burning holes in their pockets into multimillionaires in less than two years.  If they could actually liquidate at those crazy high prices they'd be genuinely rich, but of course the problem is that the price (and thus the value of your asset) decreases every time you sell.  Which is why HODL is the rallying cry, because they need to suppress sales as much as possible.

I think it's a fascinating business model.  These people may own ten million dollars worth of a crypto, but they can only sell a few hundred dollars per day without negatively impacting market prices.  They need to drip it out slowly to keep the price high, but they have real expenses to cover in the mean time, so every new youtube video they make that convinces another person to buy in is basically going right into their pocket as sales, and so from that perspective the "currency" side is totally irrelevant.  They're in sales like anyone else in retail, pocketing take-home cash buy convincing people to buy their product.  Generating a few hundred dollars per day off of $10k of original money is fantastic.  Doing it on ten million in current asset value is kind of disappointing.  Unfortunately, sales don't scale with asset price, and they need to balance those competing interest.

I've decided that I love cryptocurrencies.  They are everything that is wrong the modern age, embodied in a new speculative bubble that will be remembered for generations as a symbol of our folly.  Like Donald Trump, they are exactly what America deserves.

EscapeVelocity2020

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #1139 on: May 01, 2018, 01:21:22 AM »
The BitCoin Achilles heel is that just about any reasonably funded private entity can start a currency on an equivalent playing level.  There is no moat, no barrier to entry, no intrinsic value.  Even Oscar-Mayer has jumped in.  What if Apple just decided one day that it wanted to be a real player and back-stopped it's 'I-currency' with both technical ability as well as real cash reserves.  What if a 3rd world country decided to use 'Wakanda' blockchain currency backstopped with it's natural resources? 

Just about anything could render BitCoin effectively worthless if a new Crypto overshadows or splinters the market.

trollwithamustache

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #1140 on: May 01, 2018, 08:04:50 AM »
.  What if a 3rd world country decided to use 'Wakanda' blockchain currency backstopped with it's natural resources? 


well, to answer your last question it appears you have to cut the price of your crude oil by 30% as a teaser to get people to buy your  crypto and use that to buy your oil....

The BTC moat is its widespread usage, which is both incredibly powerful and potentially incredible weak.

talltexan

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #1141 on: May 09, 2018, 12:32:25 PM »
Don't worry about Apple issuing its own crypto currency. Worry about Amazon doing it.

runbikerun

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #1142 on: May 09, 2018, 02:23:46 PM »
Amazon are already starting to eat the banking industry, but from an entirely unexpected direction: they're offering loans to small businesses which sell their products on Amazon itself. It's a very shrewd move, because they have an incredibly detailed view of the borrowers' financials and operations, because they can utterly bury a business that refuses to pay what's owed, and because they get two bites of the apple by charging for the marketplace as well as for the financing. Those factors combine to produce a loan book that would make any credit risk analyst weep for joy.

There's money to be made in disrupting established banking organisations. Just not in fucking crypto.

OneCoolCat

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #1143 on: May 09, 2018, 08:42:40 PM »
The BitCoin Achilles heel is that just about any reasonably funded private entity can start a currency on an equivalent playing level.  There is no moat, no barrier to entry, no intrinsic value.  Even Oscar-Mayer has jumped in.  What if Apple just decided one day that it wanted to be a real player and back-stopped it's 'I-currency' with both technical ability as well as real cash reserves.  What if a 3rd world country decided to use 'Wakanda' blockchain currency backstopped with it's natural resources? 

Just about anything could render BitCoin effectively worthless if a new Crypto overshadows or splinters the market.

Bigger players will enter the crypto scene, thats for sure.  I don't think it will hurt the big players like Bitcoin, Monero and Ethereum because most people involved in crypto appreciate the decentralized nature of it.  That's the primary reason Bitcoin was first created and it remains an essential aspect of cryptocurrency.  I think there will be successful decentralized and centralized cryptos.  Ripple is a perfect example of how they can both succeed. 

js82

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #1144 on: May 11, 2018, 05:22:45 PM »
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/04/25/nasdaq-is-open-to-becoming-cryptocurrency-exchange-ceo-says.html

Just like you old farts had an entire generation buying equities with you in retirement accounts, it's easy to see where the millennial generation will be putting their (albeit less) money towards.

Look macro, play it accordingly.

I'm a millennial.  I see Blockchain as a useful technology.  I suspect there are uses which have not been significantly explored yet, for which it will prove its merits as a future.

When I "look macro", I prefer assets with intrinsic value, and ones that offer a return even in the absence of wild price fluctuation.  Shares of corporations offer that.  Smart real estate investment offers that.  Crypto?  Not so much.

Cryptocurrencies themselves are at best, a useful means of making a transaction, but with no intrinsic value.  At worst, they're an ecological trainwreck and their use is limited due to transaction costs/speeds(see: Bitcoin's electricity consumption and speed).

Do they have uses?  Sure.  Does a crypto-coin have intrinsic value in the way a share of a publicly-traded corporation does?  Heck no.  At best, by "investing" in crypto, you're doing the equivalent of "investing" in gold, in hopes of price gains over time from an item whose value(in terms of usefulness) is largely decoupled from its market price.  This is reinforced by the extent to which the overwhelming majority of cryptos track together - what we have right now is mass investing in the crypto "asset class", but with relatively little regard to the merits of many of the individual cryptocurrencies.  Most of the 1000+ "currencies" out there today are useless garbage, good for little other than speculation.

In the end, crypto isn't creating wealth(In fact, when you consider the absurd quantities of energy being expended on mining, it's delivering negative value).  It's a transactional process, pushing electrons around to benefit one party at the expense of another, much like the existing banking system.  The only difference is who wins and who loses, and the size of the transaction fees.  And given the sheer amount of energy it takes to process a single transaction for Bitcoin and Ethereum, crypto definitely isn't winning in the transactional costs department in the vast majority of cases - which is what the average end user will care about.

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #1145 on: May 12, 2018, 08:05:21 AM »
In an interview with Warren Buffet earlier this week, he mentioned that if someone says they don't think Apple stock will do well, Buffet doesn't get angry about it.  He just has a different view.  But if you tell someone who owns Bitcoin you don't think it's a good investment, they tend to take it very personally.

Charlie Munger had even stronger opinions about the matter, but it would be practically be trolling to quote his comments here.

sol

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #1146 on: May 12, 2018, 08:46:10 AM »
Charlie Munger had even stronger opinions about the matter, but it would be practically be trolling to quote his comments here.

Ooh ooh, let me!

Charlie Munger is a legend in the investment and finance world, and he thinks "Bitcoin is worthless artificial gold."

maizeman

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #1147 on: May 13, 2018, 05:46:58 PM »
An interesting read on the economics of ASICs.

It also answered a question I've been wondering about for a long time, which is why a company that built custom miners that turned a net profit would ever sell them, and why custom asics which didn't turn a profit would ever be purchased. It's all about timing.

Quote
In the case of Bitmainís A3, a small batch of miners were sold to the public with a very fast shipping time, less than 10 days. Shortly afterwards, YouTube videos started circulating of people who had bought the miners and were legitimately making $800 per day off of their miner. This created a lot of mania around the A3, setting Bitmain up for a very successful batch 2.

While we donít know exactly how many A3 units got sold, we suspect that the profit margins they made on their batch 2 sales are greater than the potential block reward from mining using the A3 units. That is to say, Bitmain sold over a hundred million dollars in mining rigs knowing that the block reward was not large enough for their customers to make back that money, even assuming free electricity. And this isnít the first time, they pulled something similar with the Dash miners. We call it flooding, and itís another example of the dangerous asymmetry that exists between manufacturers and customers.

https://blog.sia.tech/the-state-of-cryptocurrency-mining-538004a37f9b

TheShinyHorse

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #1148 on: May 14, 2018, 01:43:18 PM »
In an interview with Warren Buffet earlier this week, he mentioned that if someone says they don't think Apple stock will do well, Buffet doesn't get angry about it.  He just has a different view.  But if you tell someone who owns Bitcoin you don't think it's a good investment, they tend to take it very personally.

Charlie Munger had even stronger opinions about the matter, but it would be practically be trolling to quote his comments here.
Lol, some take it personally, most don't. It's the vocal people you usually hear/see (especially on the internet).

Buffet/Munger have been wrong plenty of times. Especially on (new) technology.

shadow

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #1149 on: May 14, 2018, 03:18:53 PM »
In an interview with Warren Buffet earlier this week, he mentioned that if someone says they don't think Apple stock will do well, Buffet doesn't get angry about it.  He just has a different view.  But if you tell someone who owns Bitcoin you don't think it's a good investment, they tend to take it very personally.

Charlie Munger had even stronger opinions about the matter, but it would be practically be trolling to quote his comments here.
Lol, some take it personally, most don't. It's the vocal people you usually hear/see (especially on the internet).

Buffet/Munger have been wrong plenty of times. Especially on (new) technology.

Munger specifically mentioned bitcoin as rat poison, though I'm not sure if he is aware of the distinction between bitcoin and cryptocurrency. If he had specifically targeted crypto, then, despite his wise old-man image and worthy mental models, his statements on crypto would be very foolish.