Author Topic: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion  (Read 92964 times)

Capyy

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #1000 on: February 17, 2018, 08:39:25 AM »
Has there been discussion about investing in blockchain tech without buying a coin? I don't believe in the future of the coins in the near term.

Telecaster

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #1001 on: February 17, 2018, 10:39:50 AM »
That said, I mine Ethereum and invest it into a tokenised Index fund inspired by the S&P 500. It's called Crypto20, and as the name suggests, it holds 20 of the top performing coins on the market. I feel that this significantly reduces my risk and allows me to focus on the long-term gains.

And of course this index fund has filed prospectus with the SEC...right?

Surf

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #1002 on: February 17, 2018, 04:15:24 PM »
Has there been discussion about investing in blockchain tech without buying a coin? I don't believe in the future of the coins in the near term.

As an example, Microsoft is looking to take advantage of open-source blockchain tech, without buying any tokens.  So you should have residual exposure from your index funds in the event that large players like MS increase profits through blockchain tech.

Other than stock-picking the corps that look to be investing the most heavily in blockchain, I am not currently aware of a way to do what you are asking.

There are some cryptos that seek to flatten out volatility by operating a pool of investment capital as some combination of USD and top performing cryptos, but at that point you are still fully in the crypto world as you would be buying their token to participate.

Surf

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #1003 on: February 17, 2018, 04:37:42 PM »
That said, I mine Ethereum and invest it into a tokenised Index fund inspired by the S&P 500. It's called Crypto20, and as the name suggests, it holds 20 of the top performing coins on the market. I feel that this significantly reduces my risk and allows me to focus on the long-term gains.

Hey Fantasticmrfox,

A true crypto-index fund would be very useful.  I looked over Crypto20, it's a cool concept. A couple turnoffs:

-it is not an index, at all.  Don't fool yourself that you are gaining the benefits of a true index, which requires broad market coverage from the smallest to the largest to distribute risk and capture growth across the entire spectrum.

-if you wanted these 20 coins(I daresay you could choose a better 20 with a couple hours of googling), you would be MUCH better off buying them a la carte and controlling your own private keys.   By investing in Crypto20 you are turning over control of your assets in the hope that they will return them to you when you ask.  There's a non-zero chance that they wont, this defeats the entire point of crypto, which is you control your own finances and do not have to trust a 3rd party.

-Crypto20 appears only a couple months old.  Essentially you are taking on the risk of a fledgling token with the growth rates 20 coins from the top 50 or so.  That's a terrible trade IMO.

-finally, the 20 coins covered include some that I wouldn't touch with a 30 foot pole, and some that have flaws that may or may not preclude them from long term viability.  Some are solid, some I haven't looked into.

talltexan

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #1004 on: February 20, 2018, 01:21:40 PM »
Historical data doesn't give us a time when Crypto- performed over an extended weak market (such as the 2001-2010 decade for SP500).

Bicycle_B

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #1005 on: February 20, 2018, 06:54:07 PM »
Guess Jamie "bitcoin is a fraud" Dimon has changed his mind.

"We examine the potential role of CCs in terms of offering diversification in a global portfolio, given both their high returns over the past several years and their low correlation with the major asset classes, offsetting some of the cost of high volatility. If past returns, volatilities and correlations persist, CCs could potentially have a role in diversifying one’s global bond and equity portfolio."

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-02-11/jpmorgan-publishes-bitcoin-bible

I am still bullish on using asset allocation strategies like the Larry portfolio, Golden Butterfly, and Bernsteins teachings but including CC in them as a diversifier and hedge. The returns on the modified Golden butterfly portfolio are beating S&P 500 (90/10), pure GB, Larry, and all the other asset mixes I track even with the crazy volatility. I tilt towards diversification and portfolios with the highest returns and the lowest potential drawdowns however. Drawdowns do not concern most people on this forum and if that is the case just stay 100% in VSTAX and keep hating on CCs (and gold).

Whatever the merits of cryptocurrency, a portfolio including it is not a portfolio with the lowest potential drawdown.  Since cryptocurrency has the shortest track record of asset mentioned in the above post, plus many analysts pointing out the possibility/probability of larger drops than any other "asset" class, a crypto-heavy portfolio has the highest potential drawdown.  Whatever rewards it may bring, such a portfolio incurs a larger risk.

talltexan

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #1006 on: February 21, 2018, 09:11:08 AM »
Our MMM community seems to include both crypto-skeptics and crypto-boosters.

But let's say that I'm a crypto-skeptic. Does that still mean the optimal allocation to crypto is zero? I can see how the variability of price means I can rebalance to having 1% of a portfolio in crypto and feel like I'm well-positioned for a low-probability, high-value future in which the boosters are vindicated.

BattlaP

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #1007 on: February 21, 2018, 10:16:35 AM »
Our MMM community seems to include both crypto-skeptics and crypto-boosters.

But let's say that I'm a crypto-skeptic. Does that still mean the optimal allocation to crypto is zero? I can see how the variability of price means I can rebalance to having 1% of a portfolio in crypto and feel like I'm well-positioned for a low-probability, high-value future in which the boosters are vindicated.

Quote from: literally one page ago
If you allocated 1% of your portfolio to every scheme or technology that could theoretically boom in value you’ll very quickly have a portfolio that is 100% rubbish. Even if your number 2 outcome came about (and I also thoroughly disagree with your ridiculous assessment there of ‘likely’) the chance of ‘cryptos eventually boom’ meaning that the Bitcoin (or any other currently existing coin) you’re holding today specifically represents that future value is exceedingly unlikely.

Come on mate, you've been around long enough to see this discussion had before. If you want to gamble/speculate with your money on sketchy internet ponzi schemes plagued by scams, hacks, propaganda and misinformation instead of investing it according to well studied and historically sound asset portfolios, go ahead, but don't call it 'optimal' or 'well-positioned'.

BattlaP

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #1008 on: February 21, 2018, 10:21:24 AM »
Has there been discussion about investing in blockchain tech without buying a coin? I don't believe in the future of the coins in the near term.

If it has any practical application towards competitive advantage for existing firms (lol it doesn't and never will) it'll be covered by your index funds. It is completely safe and preferable to ignore it for now. Better future techs to speculate on would be things like solar and other renewables, machine learning, maybe VR/AR, etc. Better yet, don't speculate and instead let your productive assets (stocks/bonds/real estate) work for you to produce income over time.

sol

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #1009 on: February 21, 2018, 11:16:04 AM »
But let's say that I'm a crypto-skeptic. Does that still mean the optimal allocation to crypto is zero?

Yes.  Yes it does.

That's my personal opinion of course, and you can take it or leave it, but I wouldn't touch crypto with a ten foot pole made of other people's money.  The entire space is rife with criminal manipulators with shady motivations.

The economic importance of blockchain, as a clever software idea, is definitely not clear yet but no one believes it is worth a half trillion dollars (the current market cap).  Crypto bears all of the hallmarks of past scams, and none of the attributes of past emerging technologies like electricity, autos, or the internet.  It's a bad investment and everyone is going to get burned, because it only exists to defraud retail investors.  It was created for the sole purpose of criminal fraud (avoiding sanctions, making illegal purchases, and now rotating pump and dump securities fraud). 

Who would willingly invest in something that was designed from the outset to cause financial ruin?  Only the sharks doing the stealing, that's who.  And the minnows they can trick into parting with their hard earned cash.  Which are you?

trollwithamustache

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #1010 on: February 21, 2018, 12:53:34 PM »
But let's say that I'm a crypto-skeptic. Does that still mean the optimal allocation to crypto is zero?

The economic importance of blockchain, as a clever software idea, is definitely not clear yet but no one believes it is worth a half trillion dollars (the current market cap). 

well, block chain is  potentially worth that much or more. That doesn't mean the BTC market cap is the real value of the idea of the block chain idea. 

BTC or even Joe-shitposters favorite coin can still end up being worth 0 or a million dollars in 5 years completely independent of how widespread block chain usage ends up being. 

its interesting that in this whole block chain portfolio discussion we always focus on crypto coins and none of the software companies or other applications.

waltworks

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #1011 on: February 21, 2018, 01:13:36 PM »
its interesting that in this whole block chain portfolio discussion we always focus on crypto coins and none of the software companies or other applications.

It makes perfect sense, actually. Blockchain outside of the coins and scams is pretty boring (and open source) and lots of companies will use it for lots of useful/lucrative things - but you already probably own stock in those companies if you're an index fund investor. So there's really not much to discuss.

If you like to pick stocks, you could get interested in which companies are doing what with blockchain.

If you just like to gamble, then the coins are the only thing to talk about. Which is why people are so interested in talking about them.

-W

zazpowered

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #1012 on: February 21, 2018, 11:50:04 PM »
I made an app recently to help ppl track their cryptocurrency portfolio value. It's probably only useful if you have coins outside of BTC, LTC, ETH and what's store on Coinbase because then you could just use Coinbase to track your portfolio. No registration required and all data is anonymous and only stored on your phone. https://itunes.apple.com/us/app/coinbuddy-track-your-crypto/id1271644974?mt=8

Would love to get any thoughts/feedback!

bender

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #1013 on: February 22, 2018, 02:11:34 PM »
This has the potential to be the greatest technological advancement in human history.

This quote has potential to be the greatest bullshit in human history.

Telecaster

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #1014 on: February 22, 2018, 02:25:45 PM »
^ I was thinking it, but I wasn't going to say it. 

BattlaP

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #1015 on: February 22, 2018, 03:20:53 PM »
Yep, complete nonsense. Blockchain is a novel data structure, of academic interest, which has serious flaws (eg complete inability to scale without vast energy consumption) and is also wholly unneccessary because in the real world the average person is perfectly happy with centralised, trusted actors. The cost of trustless decentralisation is much too high to be a practical solution for literally any problem, and is also generally undesirable because trusted actors bring with them the benefits of regulation, reliability, accountability and system control (two examples; chargebacks, system updates - with blockchain solutions transactions are irreversible which is a terrible idea in general, and system updates require agreement and cooperation between distributed actors, which, for example, is why the Bitcoin block size has not been changed in way too long and every attempt to do so ends in a reddit meme war).

Plenty of companies have done your 'behind the scenes' secret trials and the reason you don't hear about them is because they don't amount to anything.
« Last Edit: February 22, 2018, 03:23:33 PM by BattlaP »

L.A.S.

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #1016 on: February 22, 2018, 03:35:40 PM »
Blockchain technology just produces a relational data structure that is extremely energy intensive to build and that cannot be corrected.

It doesn't solve any real-world problems. 

I don't see it as being the greatest technological advancement in human history.


Telecaster

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #1017 on: February 22, 2018, 03:48:13 PM »
I can see some uses.  Blockchain is a distributed ledger.  So you could use to do things like track the provenance of pieces of art, or maybe firearms, diamonds, cars,  bottles of alcohol, real estate, or anything you wanted to keep track of. 

So it might be useful, but it is an incremental step in bookkeeping.  It isn't like discovering fire or antibotics. 

BattlaP

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #1018 on: February 22, 2018, 04:03:45 PM »
I can see some uses.  Blockchain is a distributed ledger.  So you could use to do things like track the provenance of pieces of art, or maybe firearms, diamonds, cars,  bottles of alcohol, real estate, or anything you wanted to keep track of. 

So it might be useful, but it is an incremental step in bookkeeping.  It isn't like discovering fire or antibotics.

Or you could use a permissioned database and not have to worry about block generation, inability to correct mistakes, etc.

The closest thing to a practical application that blockchain has is Github. And it's not blockchain.

effigy98

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #1019 on: February 22, 2018, 05:09:22 PM »
Ok you guys have won. I am tired of contributing anything to this board. I (Naively) was hoping for a logical, constructive conversation about crypto on probably what I thought was the best FI board on the internet. The community that is mostly responding to this thread now is hostile and too emotional for useful discussion.

Edit: I am wrong to say the whole community. There is a large percentage of people who are amazing, thoughtful, and actually trying to help others get to FI. Those are the virtuous people who make this community great. The thread started out well and there are many people trying to help out and provide useful information. I wish I could isolate to just those posters, but I cannot and it seems like now if you post ANYTHING positive on this thread, you get massivly attacked.

Sounds like the same old arguments for the internet in the 90s. Ya right, chat room is really going to revolutionize society. Napster is for theives, nobody wants a lower quality MP3 if they can get a CD. Shopping online? Why would I do that when I have to pay shipping, wait a day or two, and I can just drive to the store? What a stupid idea...

Most people just do not have the time or energy to understand why it is so important. This is normal and ok. Eventually, you will understand when it is the backbone of society. Early adopters that see the potential want others to prosper, especially on this board since so many other ideas have helped everyone here towards their journey to FI. Being so negative and closed minded is just hurting others and not logical. I am surprised that this board out of all boards is so closed minded about a potentially disruptive technology that can help many people in the world reach FI... Let's go attack stock options stragegies because that is "complicated", or maybe gold in our asset allocation, or some other useless investments because they are not S&P 500 or bonds. Oh and never EVER mention paying off your house because 100% loan and 100% into S&P fund at 33%+ ShillerPE is the right choice every time.

« Last Edit: February 22, 2018, 06:08:45 PM by effigy98 »

GuitarStv

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #1020 on: February 22, 2018, 05:16:51 PM »
Napster was for thieves though.  See how well the company did when it kicked off the thieves and tried to go legit?

BattlaP

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #1021 on: February 22, 2018, 05:21:12 PM »
I like how he didn't respond to a single point and instead immediately launched out a full ad-homenim attack.

'FUD!, FUD!' he screamed as he slowly shrunk and retreated from reasonable critique.
« Last Edit: February 22, 2018, 05:31:04 PM by BattlaP »

L.A.S.

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #1022 on: February 22, 2018, 05:56:09 PM »
Ok you guys have won. I am tired of contributing anything to this board. I (Naively) was hoping for a logical, constructive conversation about crypto on probably what I thought was the best FI board on the internet. The community is hostile and too emotional for useful discussion.

Sounds like the same old arguments for the internet in the 90s. Ya right, chat room is really going to revolutionize society. Napster is for theives, nobody wants a lower quality MP3 if they can get a CD. Shopping online? Why would I do that when I have to pay shipping, wait a day or two, and I can just drive to the store? What a stupid idea...

Most people just do not have the time or energy to understand why it is so important. This is normal and ok. Eventually, you will understand when it is the backbone of society. Early adopters that see the potential want others to prosper, especially on this board since so many other ideas have helped everyone here towards their journey to FI. Being so negative and closed minded is just hurting others and not logical. I am surprised that this board out of all boards is so closed minded about a potentially disruptive technology that can help many people in the world reach FI... Let's go attack stock options stragegies because that is "complicated", or maybe gold in our asset allocation, or some other useless investments because they are not S&P 500 or bonds. Oh and never EVER mention paying off your house because 100% loan and 100% into S&P fund at 33%+ ShillerPE is the right choice every time.

But that is what you got...

We just didn't see it your way.

sol

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Re: OFFICIAL: Blockchain / Crypto-Currency Portfolios and Discussion
« Reply #1023 on: February 22, 2018, 09:13:24 PM »
There is a large percentage of people who are amazing, thoughtful, and actually trying to help others get to FI.

Thanks.  Your recognition of my efforts genuinely means a lot to me.  Sometimes I feel like I spend all this time and effort trying to help people, and all I get is attacked for it.  I'm still here plugging away though, warning people away from bad investments.

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it seems like now if you post ANYTHING positive on this thread, you get massivly attacked.

Yea, I know how you feel.  I keep trying to give people helpful advice in this thread, and some of them just get all huffy instead of listening.  That's okay, not everyone on the internet actually wants to have a logical and constructive debate.  Some people are just here for the confirmation bias.

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Sounds like the same old arguments for the internet in the 90s. Ya right, chat room is really going to revolutionize society. Napster is for theives, nobody wants a lower quality MP3 if they can get a CD. Shopping online? Why would I do that

Funny, I was recently thinking that the crypto hype was much more like the segway hype.  It's going to revolutionize the way we organize cities!  It's going to bigger than the PC! 

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Eventually, you will understand when it is the backbone of society.

I think crypto will be hugely important.  Blockchain, not so much. 

The backbone of society?  That's trust, not encryption. 

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I am surprised that this board out of all boards is so closed minded about a potentially disruptive technology that can help many people in the world

What is it about cryptocurrency that you think is disruptive?  What industries will be disrupted?  I'm just not seeing what all the hype is about.  It's a clever software idea, but in it's current form it's poorly implemented and in it's ideal form I still don't see a use case that isn't better served by existing alternatives. 

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Let's go attack stock options stragegies because that is "complicated", or maybe gold in our asset allocation, or some other useless investments because they are not S&P 500 or bonds.

We don't attack stock options because they are complicated.  We attack gold for the same reason we attack cryptocurrency.

I applaud your enthusiasm and I encourage you to invest your own money in any way you think is wise.  You can even come here and tell us all about it.  But when you cross the line into trying to convince other people, largely new investors who don't know any better, to invest their money just so that you can make more money?  Now you're looking a little shady.  You don't seem to understand the fundamentals of crypto as an asset class, as distinct from its fundamentals as a technology, and lots of people have tried to explain the difference to you with little or no success. 

But please, continue to offer us your opinions and we will continue to offer you slightly different opinions, and the forum will record our conversation as a record of the points on both sides.  If you're right, you'll win fabulous prizes!