Author Topic: Of course Jim Cramer supports Trump's tariffs - FML  (Read 2181 times)

ChpBstrd

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Of course Jim Cramer supports Trump's tariffs - FML
« on: July 06, 2018, 12:42:41 PM »
It makes sense when you think about it. Cramer and Trump appeal to the same audience. Cramer: dudes who think a boisterous amd impulsive TV personality will teach them to day trade to prosperity. Trump: dudes who think a boisterous and impulsive TV personality will MAGA and make them prosperous.

It all fits into a generational theme whereby large percentages of people reject the concept of knowledge, expertise, real-world competence, or wisdom itself.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/cramer-says-trump-is-not-wrong-on-the-china-trade-war/ar-AAzFhft?li=BBnbfcN

bwall

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Re: Of course Jim Cramer supports Trump's tariffs - FML
« Reply #1 on: July 06, 2018, 12:58:22 PM »
Cramer has always been a contrarian. I remember back when Greenspan was still in charge of the Fed, Cramer criticized him, which is something that NO ONE DID at the time. He got flak for it, but in retrospect, Cramer was right.

I see the same thing here, how everyone (incl. me!) says that we should avoid a trade war. So I enjoy his perspective.

You are welcome to your opinion of Cramer, but keep in mind that he graduated from Harvard Law, worked for Goldman Sachs and ran his own hedge fund, so he knows about knowledge, expertise, competence and wisdom.

bacchi

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Re: Of course Jim Cramer supports Trump's tariffs - FML
« Reply #2 on: July 06, 2018, 01:44:28 PM »
Cramer has always been a contrarian. I remember back when Greenspan was still in charge of the Fed, Cramer criticized him, which is something that NO ONE DID at the time. He got flak for it, but in retrospect, Cramer was right.

He was also pimping dotcom stocks right before the dotcom crash. Oops. Then he recommended holding on to Bear Sterns right before it sank like a stone into the bankruptcy ocean.

He's a contrarian because it makes him noticeable. Imagine if he was just repeating what 90%+ of economists are stating -- trade wars don't help anyone. Would that gain as much audience and sell as many ads?

lemanfan

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Re: Of course Jim Cramer supports Trump's tariffs - FML
« Reply #3 on: July 06, 2018, 01:52:48 PM »
Why FML in THE subject line?

RangerOne

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Re: Of course Jim Cramer supports Trump's tariffs - FML
« Reply #4 on: July 06, 2018, 02:41:08 PM »
Hm, well obviously China, the country now clearly ran by a dictator cannot be trusted and could not be trusted even before Xi. Then again Trump is the most famous lying, ignorant sack of shit, wannabe disctator in America.

So the its pointless listening to either side of that debate because they are all just covering their own asses and trying to look good for their base while grabbing more money or power...

A trade war seems like one of those things that no one knows where it will stop and who it will hurt. I don't particularly care if it leads to recession as long as that recession doesn't lead to mass job loss.

I would hope if things went south for the US, that Trump gets shit on and ends as a one term president. But I seriously doubt that will be the outcome. China is too easy and deserving a target to deflect blame on. And its always possible we have a neutral outcome over which he can declare victory.

Either way, time will tell. I suspect if we truly backed China into an economic corner they would become even more militarily provocative and probably stir up some distraction proxy wars like with NK. So I am not sure its a smart move to attempt to do that.

I am not a fan of this anarchist throw shit against the wall and see if what happens approach to reforming trade. So in that light I hope the constituents that voted for this course of action get burned financially.

BTDretire

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Re: Of course Jim Cramer supports Trump's tariffs - FML
« Reply #5 on: July 07, 2018, 07:35:57 PM »
Few people support tariffs. The problem is other counties put tariffs on our products when they go into their countries.
We should have fought that when it happened, but we didn't.
 The problem just got bigger and bigger, we let them just continue take advantage of us.
 It's time we started to fight, our economy is doing great, the world economy is not doing as well.
This is the perfect time to flex our will and push this issue. If it was easy, it would have been done
long ago, other administrations knew it was a problem. We now have someone that is going to
put up a fight.
 Look at the brightside, if the world doesn't negotate in good faith and our economy goes down hill,
it will be easier for you to get a democratic president.
 

chasesfish

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Re: Of course Jim Cramer supports Trump's tariffs - FML
« Reply #6 on: July 07, 2018, 09:25:51 PM »
Few people support tariffs. The problem is other counties put tariffs on our products when they go into their countries.
We should have fought that when it happened, but we didn't.
 The problem just got bigger and bigger, we let them just continue take advantage of us.
 It's time we started to fight, our economy is doing great, the world economy is not doing as well.
This is the perfect time to flex our will and push this issue. If it was easy, it would have been done
long ago, other administrations knew it was a problem. We now have someone that is going to
put up a fight.
 Look at the brightside, if the world doesn't negotate in good faith and our economy goes down hill,
it will be easier for you to get a democratic president.

^ This is pretty accurate.  The US gets a raw deal on a lot of trade and short term pain is required for long term results.

The scary part is this has never been done so publically, every administration uses tariffs, it's never been news like this before.
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privatefarmer

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Re: Of course Jim Cramer supports Trump's tariffs - FML
« Reply #7 on: July 08, 2018, 12:36:10 AM »
Few people support tariffs. The problem is other counties put tariffs on our products when they go into their countries.
We should have fought that when it happened, but we didn't.
 The problem just got bigger and bigger, we let them just continue take advantage of us.
 It's time we started to fight, our economy is doing great, the world economy is not doing as well.
This is the perfect time to flex our will and push this issue. If it was easy, it would have been done
long ago, other administrations knew it was a problem. We now have someone that is going to
put up a fight.
 Look at the brightside, if the world doesn't negotate in good faith and our economy goes down hill,
it will be easier for you to get a democratic president.

I think there is a fundamental misunderstanding of trade here. People need to remember that it is a GOOD thing we can import all our crap from China for next to nothing. Yes, they are getting our dollars, but we are getting their STUFF. You want to pay more for that nike shirt? didn't think so. people think that bc we are CONSUMERS as a country and we buy shit more than we sell shit, that somehow that is bad. its bc we have the money people, do you want to be working in a nike sweat shop selling shit to china???

any time a country adds taxes onto import (tariffs) it hurts the consumer (duh). I don't really care all that much if china is taxing imports bc they're just hurting the Chinese consumers. yes, it leads to less exports to china, but that doesn't mean we should then tax their shit and hurt US consumers...

honestly, I don't understand why people can't grasp that we are not a big manufacturing country. our min wage is like $15/hr or something and we give out healthcare to employees, how the hell can we sell shit for cheap compared to the third world?!?!? we are a wealthy country, we have engineers and doctors etc who design shit and that's how we create GDP. we don't need to be going back to 1940 and have everyone working in a plant again...

this is so elementary I really don't know why the entire republican party is not in an uproar. they're scared I guess of the big bad Donald... I used to be a republican, until he became their God. Now I think I am more left than Bernie sanders...

ILikeDividends

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Re: Of course Jim Cramer supports Trump's tariffs - FML
« Reply #8 on: July 08, 2018, 02:48:07 AM »
I think there is a fundamental misunderstanding of trade here.

-1

At least we two can agree on that one statement.
« Last Edit: July 08, 2018, 03:01:19 AM by ILikeDividends »

chasesfish

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Re: Of course Jim Cramer supports Trump's tariffs - FML
« Reply #9 on: July 08, 2018, 06:28:06 AM »
@privatefarmer I'll preface this with I am afraid our current president is not up to this tasks.

We do have a few exporting sectors with reasonable trade disputes, agriculture (which to make this case, we would need to drop our ridiculous sugar tariffs/quotas), car manufacturing, and technology/IP theft are being abused.  These have always been issues, its just never been this public and escalated to this level.

The US can *win* on most of these, when you're the largest economy in the world you have more levers.  The challenge is just like a real war, there's a cost to it.
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ChpBstrd

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Re: Of course Jim Cramer supports Trump's tariffs - FML
« Reply #10 on: July 08, 2018, 07:43:04 PM »
I think there is a fundamental misunderstanding of trade here.

-1

At least we two can agree on that one statement.

An economics education on the benefit of trade can fit on one page. Unfortunately, even that is beyond our attention span these days. Forward this to those who don't get it.

http://www.netmba.com/econ/micro/comparative-advantage/

bwall

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Re: Of course Jim Cramer supports Trump's tariffs - FML
« Reply #11 on: July 09, 2018, 02:36:21 AM »
any time a country adds taxes onto import (tariffs) it hurts the consumer (duh). I don't really care all that much if china is taxing imports bc they're just hurting the Chinese consumers. yes, it leads to less exports to china, but that doesn't mean we should then tax their shit and hurt US consumers...

So true. The trade war between the US and China now boils down to a conversation that looks like this; 'oh, yeh? Well, I'm gonna tax my people to punish you!' 'that ain't nothin! I'm gonna tax mine more and then you'll feel real pain!' 'you can't raise taxes on your people higher than I can!' "Wanna bet?! Watch this!'

Consumers in both countries will pay more and their respective governments will have more money to show for it.

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Re: Of course Jim Cramer supports Trump's tariffs - FML
« Reply #12 on: July 09, 2018, 07:02:09 AM »
our min wage is like $15/hr or something and we give out healthcare to employees


It's $7.25

which is a lot more than a sweatshop wage, but you estimated nearly double the actual minimum wage.  And that healthcare thing....I think a lot of people would tell you that definitely doesn't happen.



EvenSteven

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Re: Of course Jim Cramer supports Trump's tariffs - FML
« Reply #13 on: July 09, 2018, 08:15:18 AM »
our min wage is like $15/hr or something and we give out healthcare to employees


It's $7.25

which is a lot more than a sweatshop wage, but you estimated nearly double the actual minimum wage.  And that healthcare thing....I think a lot of people would tell you that definitely doesn't happen.

Looks like about half of US Americans are covered by employer provided health insurance.

I'm a red panda

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Re: Of course Jim Cramer supports Trump's tariffs - FML
« Reply #14 on: July 09, 2018, 08:24:42 AM »
our min wage is like $15/hr or something and we give out healthcare to employees


It's $7.25

which is a lot more than a sweatshop wage, but you estimated nearly double the actual minimum wage.  And that healthcare thing....I think a lot of people would tell you that definitely doesn't happen.

Looks like about half of US Americans are covered by employer provided health insurance.

So half aren't.  And generally, it would be the ones who are making minimum wage who aren't.

What is China's healthcare situation? My understanding is they have cheap public healthcare facilities (which may not be great, but are available) and expensive private ones.  So to say the US can't compete in manufacturing because we provide healthcare and they don't- doesn't seem accurate.

talltexan

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Re: Of course Jim Cramer supports Trump's tariffs - FML
« Reply #15 on: July 09, 2018, 09:47:40 AM »
Note: Cramer also clerked for noted Trump defender Alan Dershowitz.

I'm a professional economist who is dismayed by these tariffs as much as the next guy, but it is interesting to see all these left-leaning people suddenly decided they like free trade because Trump opposes it.

bwall

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Re: Of course Jim Cramer supports Trump's tariffs - FML
« Reply #16 on: July 09, 2018, 10:06:09 AM »
Note: Cramer also clerked for noted Trump defender Alan Dershowitz.

Cramer practiced law? Or even worked in a law office? Source?

TrudgingAlong

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Re: Of course Jim Cramer supports Trump's tariffs - FML
« Reply #17 on: July 09, 2018, 10:51:22 AM »
[quote/

I'm a professional economist who is dismayed by these tariffs as much as the next guy, but it is interesting to see all these left-leaning people suddenly decided they like free trade because Trump opposes it

[/quote]


On the other side, itís  very bizarre to see Republicans suddenly against it because of Trump.
« Last Edit: July 09, 2018, 03:45:03 PM by TrudgingAlong »

talltexan

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Re: Of course Jim Cramer supports Trump's tariffs - FML
« Reply #18 on: July 09, 2018, 12:22:45 PM »
I had recalled reading it in one of Cramer's books a few years ago.

However, it appears that Dershowitz himself has acknowledged it in print, mainly in order to discredit JC: https://www.huffingtonpost.com/alan-dershowitz/should-you-trust-jim-cram_b_901640.html.


bwall

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Re: Of course Jim Cramer supports Trump's tariffs - FML
« Reply #19 on: July 09, 2018, 12:58:14 PM »
I had recalled reading it in one of Cramer's books a few years ago.

However, it appears that Dershowitz himself has acknowledged it in print, mainly in order to discredit JC: https://www.huffingtonpost.com/alan-dershowitz/should-you-trust-jim-cram_b_901640.html.

Thanks for the link.

ChpBstrd

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Re: Of course Jim Cramer supports Trump's tariffs - FML
« Reply #20 on: July 09, 2018, 03:04:32 PM »
Note: Cramer also clerked for noted Trump defender Alan Dershowitz.

I'm a professional economist who is dismayed by these tariffs as much as the next guy, but it is interesting to see all these left-leaning people suddenly decided they like free trade because Trump opposes it.

We might be seeing a partisan polarity flip. In the past, when unions were a political force, Democrats branded themselves as the party of the blue collar, no-college-degree working class and they would occasionally sell narratives about unfair foreign competition and protectionist tariffs. Now Republicans have seized this demographic. Today it seems like the Democrats are the party of people who do intellectual work, and the Republicans are the party of people who do physical work. The old white collar / blue collar distinction is less visible because clothing and pay grades transcend the real divide, which is physical vs. intellectual work. The products of physical work, such as raw materials, manufactured products, or agricultural products, may be more in competition with foreign firms than the products of intellectual work, such as education, consulting, management, analysis, or cultural products. The resentments between these two new classes are real.

talltexan

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Re: Of course Jim Cramer supports Trump's tariffs - FML
« Reply #21 on: July 10, 2018, 06:50:21 AM »
Note: Cramer also clerked for noted Trump defender Alan Dershowitz.

I'm a professional economist who is dismayed by these tariffs as much as the next guy, but it is interesting to see all these left-leaning people suddenly decided they like free trade because Trump opposes it.

We might be seeing a partisan polarity flip. In the past, when unions were a political force, Democrats branded themselves as the party of the blue collar, no-college-degree working class and they would occasionally sell narratives about unfair foreign competition and protectionist tariffs. Now Republicans have seized this demographic. Today it seems like the Democrats are the party of people who do intellectual work, and the Republicans are the party of people who do physical work. The old white collar / blue collar distinction is less visible because clothing and pay grades transcend the real divide, which is physical vs. intellectual work. The products of physical work, such as raw materials, manufactured products, or agricultural products, may be more in competition with foreign firms than the products of intellectual work, such as education, consulting, management, analysis, or cultural products. The resentments between these two new classes are real.

What's truly interesting is the way Republicans do this while systematically dismantling the power and influence of unions. Are social/cultural issues enough to keep white working class voters in the GOP fold when judges are handing down decisions like Janis?

toganet

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Re: Of course Jim Cramer supports Trump's tariffs - FML
« Reply #22 on: July 10, 2018, 07:05:11 AM »
Note: Cramer also clerked for noted Trump defender Alan Dershowitz.

I'm a professional economist who is dismayed by these tariffs as much as the next guy, but it is interesting to see all these left-leaning people suddenly decided they like free trade because Trump opposes it.

We might be seeing a partisan polarity flip. In the past, when unions were a political force, Democrats branded themselves as the party of the blue collar, no-college-degree working class and they would occasionally sell narratives about unfair foreign competition and protectionist tariffs. Now Republicans have seized this demographic. Today it seems like the Democrats are the party of people who do intellectual work, and the Republicans are the party of people who do physical work. The old white collar / blue collar distinction is less visible because clothing and pay grades transcend the real divide, which is physical vs. intellectual work. The products of physical work, such as raw materials, manufactured products, or agricultural products, may be more in competition with foreign firms than the products of intellectual work, such as education, consulting, management, analysis, or cultural products. The resentments between these two new classes are real.

What's truly interesting is the way Republicans do this while systematically dismantling the power and influence of unions. Are social/cultural issues enough to keep white working class voters in the GOP fold when judges are handing down decisions like Janis?

The difference is in the outcome they are pursuing.  Republicans campaign on providing "jobs," but don't promise they will be good ones or carry many benefits.  They want to reduce "government dependence" by increasing corporate dependence.  Unions can't be involved because they would interfere with the corporations' ability to extract the benefits of labor for the lowest cost.  Granted, there are some free market arguments to made supporting this, but the sound awfully jungle-like.

Meanwhile, resentment between knowledge workers and physical workers is growing as the formerly-muscle-powered jobs require more and more skill and involve more and more automation.  Manufacturing, farming, etc., are all being automated aggressively, meaning fewer workers are needed, and they need to "know computers" to get the job.  So the non-knowledge workers are left fighting over service jobs that don't carry the same cultural dignity, don't pay as well, and are also threatened by automation.  Kinda can't blame them for being pissed, but their own party replies, "personal responsibility."

ChpBstrd

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Re: Of course Jim Cramer supports Trump's tariffs - FML
« Reply #23 on: July 10, 2018, 01:06:57 PM »
Note: Cramer also clerked for noted Trump defender Alan Dershowitz.

I'm a professional economist who is dismayed by these tariffs as much as the next guy, but it is interesting to see all these left-leaning people suddenly decided they like free trade because Trump opposes it.

We might be seeing a partisan polarity flip. In the past, when unions were a political force, Democrats branded themselves as the party of the blue collar, no-college-degree working class and they would occasionally sell narratives about unfair foreign competition and protectionist tariffs. Now Republicans have seized this demographic. Today it seems like the Democrats are the party of people who do intellectual work, and the Republicans are the party of people who do physical work. The old white collar / blue collar distinction is less visible because clothing and pay grades transcend the real divide, which is physical vs. intellectual work. The products of physical work, such as raw materials, manufactured products, or agricultural products, may be more in competition with foreign firms than the products of intellectual work, such as education, consulting, management, analysis, or cultural products. The resentments between these two new classes are real.

What's truly interesting is the way Republicans do this while systematically dismantling the power and influence of unions. Are social/cultural issues enough to keep white working class voters in the GOP fold when judges are handing down decisions like Janis?

The difference is in the outcome they are pursuing.  Republicans campaign on providing "jobs," but don't promise they will be good ones or carry many benefits.  They want to reduce "government dependence" by increasing corporate dependence.  Unions can't be involved because they would interfere with the corporations' ability to extract the benefits of labor for the lowest cost.  Granted, there are some free market arguments to made supporting this, but the sound awfully jungle-like.

Meanwhile, resentment between knowledge workers and physical workers is growing as the formerly-muscle-powered jobs require more and more skill and involve more and more automation.  Manufacturing, farming, etc., are all being automated aggressively, meaning fewer workers are needed, and they need to "know computers" to get the job.  So the non-knowledge workers are left fighting over service jobs that don't carry the same cultural dignity, don't pay as well, and are also threatened by automation.  Kinda can't blame them for being pissed, but their own party replies, "personal responsibility."

Ah yes, and let's not forget that it is the knowledge worker class eliminating the jobs of the physical worker class. Knowledge workers design robots that replace factory jobs, machines that replace farm jobs, energy efficiency solutions that eliminate fossil fuel jobs, electronic supply chain management that eliminates warehouse and transportation jobs, etc.

For example, the introduction of PEX tubing and stainless steel flex line has greatly reduced the number of hours homebuilders need to pay plumbers. Engineers, materials scientists, and marketing people did that, and plumbers now have less work.

Plus, because all these advances in economic efficiency are being made by knowledge workers, and because physical workers have little leverage to improve economic productivity, investment money flows toward knowledge workers and away from physical workers.

I fear the political response is akin to the original theory behind the disasterous Smoot-Hawley Tariff Bill of 1930. Back then, there was concern that unemployment and deflation were rising due to the rapid electrification of industry creating overcapacity. It was thought that if tariffs could reduce foreign competition, then more domestic jobs would be supported by domestic demand (see 1930 Republican Party platform). Result: 2/3rd drop in trans-Atlantic trade, deflation, mass unemployment.

Today the concern is wage stagnation more than unemployment, but the Republican party's instincts are returning to their roots from the 1920s-30s.

Car Jack

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Re: Of course Jim Cramer supports Trump's tariffs - FML
« Reply #24 on: July 10, 2018, 01:46:29 PM »
Ok, just an example:

Harley Davidson

The execs ride into DC and talk with Trump who praises them, their motorcycle, their company.

Tariffs ensue.  Both China and Europe.

Result:  Cost to build parts for Harley in the US becomes much more expensive.
Selling in Europe becomes much more expensive.

Harley moves some manufacturing offshore so they can a) buy the same stuff they were buying before at the price they bought it before and b) they can now sell into Europe because these bikes won't be built in the US.

Trump takes a hissy fit.  How stupid can he be to not have seen this?


My employer is urging customers to do the same thing.  We build some parts in China and will be subject to tariff.  I saw an email that was sent to customers letting them know that if they received our parts outside of the US, they won't be subject to the tariff.  Most of our customers have the option to build inside the US (serving US customers) or outside the US (serving non-US customers).

lemanfan

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Re: Of course Jim Cramer supports Trump's tariffs - FML
« Reply #25 on: July 10, 2018, 11:15:56 PM »
Ah yes, and let's not forget that it is the knowledge worker class eliminating the jobs of the physical worker class. Knowledge workers design robots that replace factory jobs, machines that replace farm jobs, energy efficiency solutions that eliminate fossil fuel jobs, electronic supply chain management that eliminates warehouse and transportation jobs, etc.

With the current AI and machine learning trend, the work of many knowledge workers are also targeted.  I don't know if you count airplane pilots as white or blue collar but just like truck drivers, they will be partly replaced by machines.  Doctors identifying deceases from lab samples or X-ray pictures are in many cases perfect for a machine. Having a junior lawyer going through thousands of pages of contract in e.g. an M&A-deal - AIs are already being used.

All these examples are however services which are not hit by traditioanl tariffs on goods.

Mighty-Dollar

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Re: Of course Jim Cramer supports Trump's tariffs - FML
« Reply #26 on: July 13, 2018, 02:15:08 AM »
Trump: dudes who think a boisterous and impulsive TV personality will MAGA and make them prosperous.
Uhhhh I voted for Trump because of the way he spoke out against illegal immigration, the way he called out the whole global warming scam, the way he bull dosed even Republican douche bags like Jeb Bush, the way he spoke out against political correctness and the way he was not part of the swamp establishment. Has nothing to do with him being a TV personality. BTW Trump IS making America great again. Unemployment at record lows, lowered taxes, economy booming, peace with North Korea, ISIS decimated, trying to repair trade deals, trying to renegotiate other disasters, etc.

talltexan

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Re: Of course Jim Cramer supports Trump's tariffs - FML
« Reply #27 on: July 13, 2018, 07:29:57 AM »
Tell me more about North Korea.

toganet

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Re: Of course Jim Cramer supports Trump's tariffs - FML
« Reply #28 on: July 13, 2018, 08:29:09 AM »
Trump: dudes who think a boisterous and impulsive TV personality will MAGA and make them prosperous.
Uhhhh I voted for Trump because of the way he spoke out against illegal immigration, the way he called out the whole global warming scam, the way he bull dosed even Republican douche bags like Jeb Bush, the way he spoke out against political correctness and the way he was not part of the swamp establishment. Has nothing to do with him being a TV personality. BTW Trump IS making America great again. Unemployment at record lows, lowered taxes, economy booming, peace with North Korea, ISIS decimated, trying to repair trade deals, trying to renegotiate other disasters, etc.

So, as a perfect example of Poe's Law I honestly can't tell if this is sarcasm or not.

talltexan

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Re: Of course Jim Cramer supports Trump's tariffs - FML
« Reply #29 on: July 13, 2018, 08:36:31 AM »
(disclosure: I am a Trump-skeptic, but registered GOP and voted in that primary)

The statements about the economy are not wrong. It IS really good right now.

However, each of the other things in that list sounds like a triumph, yet when you do even the most basic study, you realize that it's smoke and illusion.


Retire-Canada

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Re: Of course Jim Cramer supports Trump's tariffs - FML
« Reply #30 on: July 13, 2018, 08:41:42 AM »
The statements about the economy are not wrong. It IS really good right now.

It is...Thank you Obama.

talltexan

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Re: Of course Jim Cramer supports Trump's tariffs - FML
« Reply #31 on: July 16, 2018, 07:45:07 AM »
Indeed much of the economic strength that we see right now is a continuation of those trends that were already in place from 2013-2017.

However, I believe that, were Romney to have been elected in 2012, the GOP Congress would have given him something like the TCJA that was passed last December, and we would have had faster economic growth at a more useful point of the business cycle, and we'd be ahead of where we are today.