I have always lived frugally, but was unaware of the FIRE movement and investing until last summer. By that time I had saved 90k euros and decided to use my monthly savings towards a dollar cost averaging strategy and save the 90k for better purchasing conditions, such as the current conditions.
Currently I have about 20k in VWRL, 5k in P2P lending and 75k in cash. I would like to keep 25k in cash as an emergency fund and/or use towards purchasing an apartment to rent out. My take home is roughly 3k/month, living off 1k. FIRE goal is 550k, ~12 years away.
Basically I want to invest 50k, which would take me 2 years so save. Because this is such a big amount for me, I have unconsciously started timing the market. My dilemma:
VRWL is about 19% down from it's recent all time high, which seems like a fine time to buy more. But two scenarios seem reasonable:
- The economy will tank further due to corona, in which case waiting is optimal
- New QE will lead to a market recovery, in which case buying now is optimal
I know that in the long run time in the market > timing the market, but a 10% price difference in a lump sum scenario will have a huge compound effect years down the line. Any advice?