Jeeze. I started investing a year ago... and I look like an investing genius right now. My returns are 17% + right now lol.
The funny thing is that everyday I open up good ole yahoo finance to check the S&P. I hope for doom and gloom and the market to drop a gazillion points as I'm still in my 20s. Hurry up and drop market! Stop making me look so good ;)
Everyone feels like a genius when their accounts are in the black. In fact, only active traders lost money since 2010. Most people who put money in on a monthly or semi-monthly basis have done just fine (almost everything is up by a solid margin... large cap, mid cap, small cap, foreign index, most sector funds, etc).
It's a test of your volition once markets start a downward trend and whether or not you stay the course.
Good luck stomaching the downturn, although even I have my doubts whether it will be more than 10% (even though that would be a buying frenzy for me!).