My idea behind COIN is they are getting from what I understand 80-130 bp's per transaction on a platform that has infinitely less capital intensive infrastructure in the physical world (property, plant, equipment). As compared to a traditional financial company that is. At the end of the day the business model is transactions. Crypto up/crypto down there are still one heck of a lot of transactions going on. There is a lot of competition out there so it is not a blue sky.
Honestly I would be thrilled if they dumped their crypto to get that potential landmine off the books. Probably like Elon they like playing with fire. When crypto is up you look like a genius. Crypto winter you may not look so smart.
Also, partly for me it feels like history rhyming. I picked up visa shares months after the ipo in 08-09'ish I think for like 45-50 bucks. The world was imploding and I lost my nerve and sold for a slight gain less than 6 months later. Visa ended up doing fairly well in the melee and I missed out. It took me back to the old Buffett quote of 'a great business at a good price is way better than a good business at a great price.' Problem here for me and everyone else I imagine is that how can you value (good/bad price) this here. I feel like a crypto winter will definitely lead to some real "price discovery" (gut check time). I don't feel it can be valued here, so imo you have to have a fall back position of is it a great business? I believe it is a potentially great business. There are lots of great businesses that are terrible investments so it is a risk.
I have some investment experience with growers. I was early with Netflix and Zendesk. Both of these instances there was a David v Goliath scenario with Blockbuster and CRM behemoth salesforce. Both easily could have been wiped out by a much bigger competitor. There be giants for COIN, PayPal just to mention one.
I like if they stick to their knitting blockchain will just grow and grow. I would like to think as well as others that the chain will transcend financial style transactions moving to all sorts of applications. Like non monetized work that does hold a store of value for its creators. It would seem the next way that humans will communicate and collaborate.
Or it could all just go down the crapper like aol, netscape, etc... One of the things I like about saas which is what I feel these guys are implicitly is those services are sticky. Yeah, you will always have the hardcore fanboys who have dedicated "wallets" & hard drives etc. For most people it will be that sticky ease of use. They do all the work for a 1% cut. That is why I feel like there is no prize for second place and if you can suck up customers early and keep them you will do ok.
My entry here of 1/10 of a position is a statement for me. A total loss will not materially affect my lifestyle or my ability to provide for my family. I am also ready to buy at least 9 more times. If it goes to the moon before I build a full position then great. I mostly do these for the joy and excitement of the game. Obviously, the bulk of my assets are in more conservative vehicles (index funds, TIPS, hedged individual stocks, preferreds,etc). My buy yesterday is also a statement that that is the most I am willing to pay for the "stock" unless the story becomes materially juicier. The most likely scenario is I buy it down. I am an old time knife catcher, with scarred hands to prove it.
Just some thoughts. Thanks All.
