Analysts expect a little less than 40% growth in 2023. Deliveries are much higher than expected from analysts in 2020 and 2021. Morningstar said they expect 2030 deliveries on CNBC yesterday to be 5 million which is an interesting insight into their models. Here's the last week of December averages for some analysts. Obviously these estimates will have changed after Monday's delivery print, but I don't have that yet.
What's interesting here to me is the compression of growth from ~38% in 2023 to 23% in 2024 to 18% in 2025. These are rates they're using in models to estimate EPS and return. IMO, Tesla can beat these estimates. In 2021, 1.21 million units as the common estimate for 2022 deliveries. Tesla *missed in 2022 as estimates updated, but 1.31 million delivered beat those 2021 estimates even with Shanghai shutdown in 2022, zero covid policy in China, huge interest rate increases on financing, and potential leader brand damage. I guess the point I like to keep in mind how close consensus estimates are in the near term, but how far off they are in the long term.
With Q4, the CFO said just under 50% growth in production on the Q3 call. They got 47% production growth, but that vague guidance created unreasonable expectations on deliveries too. I wish Tesla had a PR department and managed expectations better. They're coming in at $5.15 EPS for 2023 according to Bloomberg consensus. So concesus Forward P/E right now is 20 and they also expect ~20% growth in 2024. As an investor, there's definitely risk they come under those numbers, but there's also potential they come in higher. IMO, their 2025-2026 numbers are absurd, like IEA EV growth estimates each year over the past 5 years.
Also, Megapack factory is ramping in Lathrop, CA. 10,000 Megapack capacity at $2.1m/pack. That could add $0.60-$1 EPS depending on the margin in 2024.