Is Tesla a good investment?

[shortduck]

I see Tesla as more Elon Musk goodwill, it it goes down so does Tesla stock price

[mistymoney]

tesla has more than doubled from the recent low. What a roller coaster...

Must have been some serious winners and losers in those trades. Even just being a buy and hold spectator, tis a bit disquieting!

[waltworks]

For every sober-eyed long term investor in Tesla there are like half a dozen meme stonk people, unfortunately.

-W

[lemonlyman]

There's also professional shorts like Jim Chanos and Bill Miller who shorted at <$115. No doubt had to cover at some point.

In 2022, the Model Y was the highest selling vehicle in California. Model 3 beat the Camry. California is also the largest lifestyle truck market in the country and Cybertruck comes out this year. Analysts are pondering the dimes and quarters to add to their EPS estimates for 2023 and 2024 with Cybertruck, Semi, Megapack, commercial tax credits, premium connectivity at increasing fleet size, insurance, and whatever the gen 3 platform is.

Meanwhile, my Y continues to drive me around at Level 3 with end consumer tech. And that's not priced in at all. Cheers to long term investors.

[mistymoney]

@lemonlyman

I'm interested to hear what they are going to talk about on 3/1 investors day. :)

[EchoStache]

I found this a bit shocking:

Tesla made more profit than Ford and GM combined in 2022.  Now imagine they come even remotely close to continuing 50% annual growth for some years to come.....it's hard to imagine that they just sold their first Model S less than 11 years ago.

[ColoradoTribe]

I found this a bit shocking:

Tesla made more profit than Ford and GM combined in 2022.  Now imagine they come even remotely close to continuing 50% annual growth for some years to come.....it's hard to imagine that they just sold their first Model S less than 11 years ago.

Yep, Tesla made more profit than GM and Ford combined in 2022, selling half as many vehicles.

[MacGyverIt]

“Tesla (TSLA.O) will open part of its U.S. charging network to electric vehicles (EVs) made by rivals as part of a $7.5 billion federal program to electrify the nation's highways to cut carbon emissions, the Biden administration said on Wednesday.

Such a move could help turn Tesla into the universal filling station of the EV era - and risk eroding a competitive edge for vehicles made by the company, which has exclusive access to the biggest network of high-speed 'superchargers' in the United States.

By the end of next year, Tesla will open 3,500 new and existing superchargers along highway corridors, as well as 4,000 slower chargers at locations like hotels and restaurants, to non-Tesla customers, the administration said.”

https://www.reuters.com/technology/tesla-open-us-charging-network-rivals-75-bln-federal-program-white-house-2023-02-15/

[AJDZee]

I found this a bit shocking:

Tesla made more profit than Ford and GM combined in 2022.  Now imagine they come even remotely close to continuing 50% annual growth for some years to come.....it's hard to imagine that they just sold their first Model S less than 11 years ago.

Yep, Tesla made more profit than GM and Ford combined in 2022, selling half as many vehicles.

That's a cool stat! while technically right, also seems to be a little cherry picking of numbers. Looks like Ford had a terrible year in 2022... one year prior their profit was $18B, more than TSLA this year. I haven't yet dug into F, but I assume 2022 they had a big expense or write off that will be a 1-time thing, because they had healthy revenue growth.

But agree without some serious growth from the legacy automakers, it won't be long before TSLA makes more profit from the 2 combined even on a good year.

[ColoradoTribe]

Got no real axe to grind in this one, but it's clear that the Tesla bubble has burst now.  As impressive as Tesla's growth has been, the market is clearly indication that a sharp slowdown is now baked in.

This one did not age well. Price on day this was posted was $125/share (Dec 22). Closing price today was $215/share.

My goal is not to call out any individual, but to once again point out that the history of this thread is chock full of care-bears expressing deep concerns over anything and everything Tesla related, most of it short-term noise.

My not advice, if you like the company, think EVs are the future, and that Tesla will continue to execute on their plan then buy and hold the stock. Stay away from margin and options. In the short-run the stock is too volatile, prone to manipulation, and often decoupled from company performance. In the long-run, the stock price will follow the execution and performance of the company.

Good luck to all!

[ColoradoTribe]

Piper Sandler estimates the price cuts in China and Australia will cost around $0.60 to 2023 EPS. Not the end of the world for sure, and that can be made up in other ways. It’s massive pressure on BYD and OEM manufacturers who already have thin margins and need volume.

I’m seeing megapack margins are somewhere at 50% based on the material/ battery sizes. If that’s true, at capacity, that’s $2.90 addition to EPS. That’s insane. 50% growth in earnings in 2024 from megapack alone. 20 Forward P/E is too cheap. With a Beta of 2, I can see how forward PE is compressed so far, but only auto is being priced with 40% growth.

Mega caps growing earnings so fast is super rare.

Yep, something has to give, the disconnect is too strong right now to be sustained.

https://twitter.com/piloly/status/1611482719468376080

Turns out disconnect was too strong to be sustained. SP on date of this post was $119 (Jan 8).  Stock price at close today was $215. Performance and execution will win out in the end.

[EchoStache]

Curious to see what announcements will be made on Investor Day: Master Plan 3.  Two days. 

[bacchi]

A redesign or new model has got to be announced and with a defined timeline. None of this "sometime this year (probably)" BS.

Tesla's 2023 sales in China (their #2 market) are pretty anemic and, without a redesign or a lower priced model, they may not see any growth there this year. The Shanghai factory is closing down in March for "upgrades," which is encouraging.

[ColoradoTribe]

A redesign or new model has got to be announced and with a defined timeline. None of this "sometime this year (probably)" BS.

Tesla's 2023 sales in China (their #2 market) are pretty anemic and, without a redesign or a lower priced model, they may not see any growth there this year. The Shanghai factory is closing down in March for "upgrades," which is encouraging.

So you're "pre-concerned" heading into any positive announcements that come out of Investor Day?

[bacchi]

A redesign or new model has got to be announced and with a defined timeline. None of this "sometime this year (probably)" BS.

Tesla's 2023 sales in China (their #2 market) are pretty anemic and, without a redesign or a lower priced model, they may not see any growth there this year. The Shanghai factory is closing down in March for "upgrades," which is encouraging.

So you're "pre-concerned" heading into any positive announcements that come out of Investor Day?

From what I wrote, what do you disagree with?

Do you not agree that Tesla has to announce a new model or redesign?

Do you not agree that, so far this year, Tesla's sales in China aren't looking so hot compared to their growth projections?

Do you not agree that Tesla is shutting down their Shanghai factory for updates?

[ColoradoTribe]

A redesign or new model has got to be announced and with a defined timeline. None of this "sometime this year (probably)" BS.

Tesla's 2023 sales in China (their #2 market) are pretty anemic and, without a redesign or a lower priced model, they may not see any growth there this year. The Shanghai factory is closing down in March for "upgrades," which is encouraging.

So you're "pre-concerned" heading into any positive announcements that come out of Investor Day?

From what I wrote, what do you disagree with?

Do you not agree that Tesla has to announce a new model or redesign?

Do you not agree that, so far this year, Tesla's sales in China aren't looking so hot compared to their growth projections?

Do you not agree that Tesla is shutting down their Shanghai factory for updates?

Didn’t say I disagreed or agreed in my post. Not going to spend my time arguing with someone who is clearly not looking for honest debate, but rather to constantly throw shade on Tesla.  Your lack of understanding of this market and Tesla’s business has been on display since the inception of this thread, yet you persist. All you do is take the latest FUD article headline and come on her and post it as your concern du jour. As far as I can tell that is the extent of your expertise on the subject.

[bacchi]

Not going to spend my time arguing with someone who is clearly not looking for honest debate, but rather to constantly throw shade on Tesla.

Yet here you are, responding to every post I make. :)


Let's have an honest discussion, then.

1) Given the weekly China registrations, and comparing them with Oct/Nov numbers, do you agree that Tesla's sales growth in China is slowing down?
  a) If so, should that be a concern for Tesla?
      1. If it is a concern for Tesla, what can Tesla do to fix it?

2) What is your opinion on the Shanghai plant March "update?" Redesign of 3 or a new Model 2? Or just an assembly line upgrade?

3) What would be better for Tesla at this point? A Model 3 upgrade or a more down-market car?

[lemonlyman]

Seems like they are exporting more than delivering from China. Glad they didn't show the next car. Just would have had an Osborne effect on sales. Line improvements are good news though. They went over manufacturing efficiency a lot on Investor Day.
https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/tesla-sold-74402-china-made-vehicles-february-2023-03-03/

I thought Investor Day was great! They announced a new factory in Mexico to build their next gen car and showed the strategy to build it at 50% less cost. $19,000 COGS with $25,000 sale price is 24% gross margin. Options and software will raise that. Also showed they're working on a van or larger SUV.

For earnings in 2023, they showed a graph of energy deployment. 16gwh cumulative with the chart moving to 35gwh in 2023. That's $10 billion in incremental revenue. Margins are yet to be seen, but expected to be high with the Megapack product. +$1 to EPS likely in 2023 from Energy that's not being modeled yet. Not just a car company anymore.

The bummer for me was hoping for production Cybertruck design, specs and prices, but they'll do a separate presentation I'm guessing.

Tesla released the slide deck.
https://tesla-cdn.thron.com/static/AA7YQM_Investor_Day_2023_Keynote_W9DARX.pdf?xseo=&response-content-disposition=inline%3Bfilename%3D%22Investor-Day-2023-Keynote.pdf%22

[ChpBstrd]

An uber-consumerist friend hit a pothole in their 6-month old Model 3, damaging 2 tires.

Replacement of those 2 tires is going to cost $1100. Gawd fucking forbid if any of the wheels are dinged or bent.

Their Tesla has not turned out to be a good investment.

[EchoStache]

An uber-consumerist friend hit a pothole in their 6-month old Model 3, damaging 2 tires.

Replacement of those 2 tires is going to cost $1100. Gawd fucking forbid if any of the wheels are dinged or bent.

Their Tesla has not turned out to be a good investment.

Tesla Service will replace the factory tire for under $350....not saying that's cheap, but a far cry from $550 each.  Treadwear rating is around 300.

Excellent top of the line touring tires are available for under $250/piece with 700 treadwear in factory size.  He'll be better off going that route....half the cost and will last twice as long.

[mistymoney]

picked up 3 more shares today. Had delayed my regular purchase a bit because of the shoot up in price but that cooled a bit so caught up on my plans.

put 3x that amount into ibonds to balance out my post-tax investments/savings....

[ColoradoTribe]

We’ve had robust debate on this thread about the level and timing of competition coming for Tesla. Well, Ford just now has done what no other US legacy auto manufacturer has done before. Ford has broken out their EV business financials from the rest of their business operations. In Ford’s case, three buckets (ICE, EV, and Commercial) or divisions. To those of us who have been preaching Tesla’s advantages as a pure EV play with vertical integration and revolutionary manufacturing processes, the numbers coming out from Ford do not come as a surprise, but are still staggering

I’d summarize, but Rob Mauer of Tesla Daily does an admirable job of putting Ford’s EV financials into context relative to what Tesla has accomplished. One nugget though, Ford grew wholesale EV sales 58% in 2022 over 2021, but increased EBIT losses from 900 million in 2021 to 1.9 billion in 2022.  That 1.9 billion is more than Tesla lost in any year of it’s existence even during it’s most difficult years of ramping the Model 3. Imagine the difficulties for Ford over the next few years as their ICE sales and profits start eroding at the same time Ford is hemorrhaging cash to ramp up EVs. It’s going to get worse for Ford before it gets better.

The competition is going to have to simply survive in order to compete years from now.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ey_HqCIqj0c

For those who see BYD as Tesla’s greatest competition, I agree that BYD has great potential. However, BYD sales in China (in markets segments where Tesla plays) plummeted so far this quarter, while Tesla sales rebounded sharply. Tesla has pricing control in the EV market, and their price drops at the end of last year appear to have shifted demand sharply and started a price war that competitors are unable to match.

[EchoStache]

The statistic I find astonishing is that Tesla made $35,00 more per EV than Ford.  How the heck do you come back from that?

[MustacheAndaHalf]

I’d summarize, but Rob Mauer of Tesla Daily does an admirable job of putting Ford’s EV financials into context relative to what Tesla has accomplished. One nugget though, Ford grew wholesale EV sales 58% in 2022 over 2021, but increased EBIT losses from 900 million in 2021 to 1.9 billion in 2022.  That 1.9 billion is more than Tesla lost in any year of it’s existence even during it’s most difficult years of ramping the Model 3. Imagine the difficulties for Ford over the next few years as their ICE sales and profits start eroding at the same time Ford is hemorrhaging cash to ramp up EVs. It’s going to get worse for Ford before it gets better.

I ascribe Ford's losses to ramping up EV production.  Ford needs to catch up to Tesla faster than Tesla reached this point.  Essentially: fast or cheap - pick one.

EV market share (vs ICE) has been increasing quickly from a very low percentage.  Ending 2021 with 8.6% global market share is impressive.
https://www.iea.org/commentaries/electric-cars-fend-off-supply-challenges-to-more-than-double-global-sales

Russia's invasion of Ukraine sent an oil shock around the world in 2022.  Gasoline prices skyrocketed without warning, which meant EVs solved an important problem.  I would guess EV market share hit double digits, and will show up in news headlines when 2022 data is available.

[StashingAway]

Russia's invasion of Ukraine sent an oil shock around the world in 2022.  Gasoline prices skyrocketed without warning, which meant EVs solved an important problem.  I would guess EV market share hit double digits, and will show up in news headlines when 2022 data is available.

Didn't natural gas prices skyrocket as much if not more, which the EU uses to generate electricity? In fact, the EU passed measures to reduce electricity usage last fall because of the crisis.

https://www.macrotrends.net/2500/crude-oil-vs-natural-gas-chart

On a personal EV owner level, skyrocketing electricity prices is easier to swallow than skyrocketing petrol prices due to the higher efficiency, but I haven't seen any evidence/articles that point to EVs as an important part of EU resiliency in the present moment, although I am completely open to being proven wrong.

[mistymoney]

does tesla do roofs in europe? I did a google and saw some info about them starting in 2022, but nothing about it happening.

[EchoStache]

Solar seems to be not as common in Europe.  Europeans tend to use MUCH MUCH less electricity than Americans.  Air conditioning is almost unheard of.  Electric rates are quite high so EV's tend to not offer much cost savings despite high gas prices.  There aren't really any 15 mpg clown SUV/Pickups over there though..small, fuel efficient sedans and hatchbacks are the norm.

[MustacheAndaHalf]

Russia's invasion of Ukraine sent an oil shock around the world in 2022.  Gasoline prices skyrocketed without warning, which meant EVs solved an important problem.  I would guess EV market share hit double digits, and will show up in news headlines when 2022 data is available.

Didn't natural gas prices skyrocket as much if not more, which the EU uses to generate electricity? In fact, the EU passed measures to reduce electricity usage last fall because of the crisis.

https://www.macrotrends.net/2500/crude-oil-vs-natural-gas-chart

That would not have impacted most of the top 10 car buying countries, only 2 of which are in the EU.
https://www.factorywarrantylist.com/car-sales-by-country.html

Germany relied on Nord Stream 1 and 2 for Russian LNG, and I imagine some neighbors (Denmark, The Netherlands) did as well.  Poland didn't trust Russia, and had an LNG terminal to receive shipments, which could explain why their natural gas prices were half of Germany's in mid 2022.  Even in the EU, the impact varied.
https://www.globalpetrolprices.com/Poland/natural_gas_prices/

[GuitarStv]

Europeans tend to use MUCH MUCH less electricity than Americans.  Air conditioning is almost unheard of.

Is this just mostly a climate thing though?  I mean, here in Toronto we hit about 12 days each summer where temperatures are above 30 C with pretty high humidity (usually a humidex of well into the 40).  And that's up here in Canada, it's got to be significantly warmer in much of the southern US.  Doing a quick Google search, it looks like the UK doesn't often hits days at 30 Celsius.  In the past ten years or so Germany and France are starting to have more and more heat waves with temperatures above 30, and it's causing a lot of concern.

My suspicion is that as hot temperatures become more similar to that experienced in North America you're going to see a lot more A/C usage in Europe, regardless of the costs.  30 C with any humidity at all is very difficult to work at all in.

[EchoStache]

Europeans tend to use MUCH MUCH less electricity than Americans.  Air conditioning is almost unheard of.

Is this just mostly a climate thing though?  I mean, here in Toronto we hit about 12 days each summer where temperatures are above 30 C with pretty high humidity (usually a humidex of well into the 40).  And that's up here in Canada, it's got to be significantly warmer in much of the southern US.  Doing a quick Google search, it looks like the UK doesn't often hits days at 30 Celsius.  In the past ten years or so Germany and France are starting to have more and more heat waves with temperatures above 30, and it's causing a lot of concern.

My suspicion is that as hot temperatures become more similar to that experienced in North America you're going to see a lot more A/C usage in Europe, regardless of the costs.  30 C with any humidity at all is very difficult to work at all in.

No, I don't think it's *just* a climate thing.  It gets uncomfortably hot over there, for sure.  People are more acclimated to it though.  When you are used to being in 68 degree A/C 24 hours a day, it makes dealing with 80 degree+ temps miserable.  But when you live your whole life without A/C, you acclimate to the warmer temps.  When we visit in the summer, we had to go to the store to buy a fan or I just couldn't sleep, even with only a sheet, or even no cover at all.  And it isn't as easy to find a fan.....it's quite uncommon for them to even be used.  I mean yes, the stores sell fans, but it's generally a really small section.  My wife's parents have literally never owned a fan in their lives.

Also, I don't think AC will start becoming more common.  Building construction is a lot different over there, most often solid block/concrete walls.  Retrofitting AC would be a massive PITA, and most people not only would not want the expense, they just wouldn't want the cold air blowing, and certainly wouldn't want the massive electricity cost that would go along with it.

I've notice that since they tend to be well acclimated to heat, they get cold much easier at more moderate temperatures.  I would be in shorts and a T-shirt and they would be in jeans, long sleeves, and reaching for a sweater/jacket.

And God forbid if you have to drive in a car over there in the summer.  No A/C, and you sure as hell don't want to crack a window while you're moving.  Germans have an irrational fear of drafts.  Crack a window in a moving car and you're sure to come down with a life threatening illness.

An interesting article:

https://www.spiegel.de/international/draftophobia-blown-away-by-the-fear-of-air-a-407764.html

Of course, moving air, or a draft, outside is perfectly fine.  But move over several inches across the threshold of a doorway and it's bad.

Many businesses do seem to be air conditioned, but it is used more sparingly.

[GuitarStv]

I dunno.  Like, don't get me wrong - the average North American way over air-conditions.  Absolutely.  But in our house the A/C doesn't even kick in until temperatures are above 26 in the summer.  I ride my bike for hours in the scorching sun all summer long.  I wrestle in a hot gi in an unairconditioned building with a bunch of other guys for Jiu Jitsu pretty regularly.  But I can't tolerate a string of humid and hot nights at all.  Humidity levels go up to 100% pretty much every summer night here, and you end up barely sleeping soaked in sweat and feeling like a zombie the next day.

I've read a lot of stories like this one (written last year) - https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/07/20/europe-uk-air-conditioning-ac/

That seem to indicate as heat starts to become as common in Europe as in North America A/C installation is skyrocketing.  The IEA is estimating more than a doubling of A/C units in the EU by 2050.  A/C can actually save lives - 15,000 people died in France during the heatwave in 2003 because of the heat.  And they were acclimated.

[EchoStache]

Hmm, well ok, maybe it is increasing.  I mean, my first hand knowledge is only based on about the 7 or so households of family that I personally know.  But from the 20 or so Germans I do know, it's a cultural norm to *not* have AC, and in fact be opposed to considering it.  They actively dislike AC and think it makes them sick.

Again, I won't argue against factual statistics that show AC adoption is increasing.  But, forecasting that AC use will double by 2050 seems a bit of a stretch of a forecast since that is nearly 30 years out, and AC is less than 10% in Europe.  From what I've seen in Germany in particular, its WAY less then 10%.  Even if it does double, that's still a pretty low number.  I've actually never seen a house in Germany with AC.  My wife was born and raised there up until age 20 and she literally does not know of a single person with AC in their house.  Not one.  So, AFAIK, it's *extremely* rare, at least in Germany.  I can't speak for the rest of Europe. 

[StashingAway]

Russia's invasion of Ukraine sent an oil shock around the world in 2022.  Gasoline prices skyrocketed without warning, which meant EVs solved an important problem.  I would guess EV market share hit double digits, and will show up in news headlines when 2022 data is available.

Didn't natural gas prices skyrocket as much if not more, which the EU uses to generate electricity? In fact, the EU passed measures to reduce electricity usage last fall because of the crisis.

https://www.macrotrends.net/2500/crude-oil-vs-natural-gas-chart

That would not have impacted most of the top 10 car buying countries, only 2 of which are in the EU.
https://www.factorywarrantylist.com/car-sales-by-country.html

Germany relied on Nord Stream 1 and 2 for Russian LNG, and I imagine some neighbors (Denmark, The Netherlands) did as well.  Poland didn't trust Russia, and had an LNG terminal to receive shipments, which could explain why their natural gas prices were half of Germany's in mid 2022.  Even in the EU, the impact varied.
https://www.globalpetrolprices.com/Poland/natural_gas_prices/

I think we're talking about two different things here. I'm not disagreeing with the conclusion that EV market share will hit double digits. I'm questioning the assertion that EVs meaningfully currently solve any of the current problems from the oil price spike in the EU.

Based on EV availability, popularity and such I don't think you can use car sales to conclude anything like that. For example, for all we know, 2022 EV sales would have been higher had there not been a war.

[mistymoney]

Hmm, well ok, maybe it is increasing.  I mean, my first hand knowledge is only based on about the 7 or so households of family that I personally know.  But from the 20 or so Germans I do know, it's a cultural norm to *not* have AC, and in fact be opposed to considering it.  They actively dislike AC and think it makes them sick.

Again, I won't argue against factual statistics that show AC adoption is increasing.  But, forecasting that AC use will double by 2050 seems a bit of a stretch of a forecast since that is nearly 30 years out, and AC is less than 10% in Europe.  From what I've seen in Germany in particular, its WAY less then 10%.  Even if it does double, that's still a pretty low number.  I've actually never seen a house in Germany with AC.  My wife was born and raised there up until age 20 and she literally does not know of a single person with AC in their house.  Not one.  So, AFAIK, it's *extremely* rare, at least in Germany.  I can't speak for the rest of Europe.

This may be changing as heat waves edge into life threatening as opposed to uncomfortable

From June to August 2022, persistent heatwaves affected parts of Europe, causing evacuations and over 20,000 heat-related deaths, making these heat waves the deadliest meteorological events in 2022. The highest temperature recorded was 47.0 °C (116.6 °F) in Pinhão, Portugal, on 14 July.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_European_heat_waves#:~:text=From%20June%20to%20August%202022,%2C%20Portugal%2C%20on%2014%20July.

[mistymoney]

Now - this seems a little far fetched to me! Off the twitterverse...

When all of a sudden a car is able to make $ for you by picking & dropping off passengers via a software update, all Teslas in the world will appreciate in value to a magnitude the world has never seen in the world of technology. $TSLA

[Paper Chaser]

Solar seems to be not as common in Europe.  Europeans tend to use MUCH MUCH less electricity than Americans.  Air conditioning is almost unheard of.  Electric rates are quite high so EV's tend to not offer much cost savings despite high gas prices.  There aren't really any 15 mpg clown SUV/Pickups over there though..small, fuel efficient sedans and hatchbacks are the norm.

It's not only about energy consumption, or electric rates. The amount of solar energy in a given location is critical for potential output of a system, and has significant impacts on the size and price of a system required. Most of Europe gets way less solar energy than most of North America. so the math is harder.

[ChpBstrd]

Now - this seems a little far fetched to me! Off the twitterverse...

When all of a sudden a car is able to make $ for you by picking & dropping off passengers via a software update, all Teslas in the world will appreciate in value to a magnitude the world has never seen in the world of technology. $TSLA

Yes, and only cars made by one specific company will ever be capable of working as robo-taxis and only a few people will buy these robo-taxis and enjoy the huge payoff of their biggest expense becoming a cash flowing asset. There's no chance that the market will become saturated by robo-taxis, that larger corporations with economies of scale and scope will dominate the market, or that most people will prefer to drive themselves rather than waiting on a ratty taxi that picks up and drops off 3 sketchy strangers on the way to work because the algo said that's the optimal way to make money.

Even wilder, the author expects the old hardware (today's Teslas) to receive a "software update" that enables it to become an autonomous, AI-driven taxi business instead of just something which requires a $2,000 set of tires every 30k miles and has an overall cost of ownership similar to a BMW. It could happen, but why would it happen?

[mistymoney]

Solar seems to be not as common in Europe.  Europeans tend to use MUCH MUCH less electricity than Americans.  Air conditioning is almost unheard of.  Electric rates are quite high so EV's tend to not offer much cost savings despite high gas prices.  There aren't really any 15 mpg clown SUV/Pickups over there though..small, fuel efficient sedans and hatchbacks are the norm.

It's not only about energy consumption, or electric rates. The amount of solar energy in a given location is critical for potential output of a system, and has significant impacts on the size and price of a system required. Most of Europe gets way less solar energy than most of North America. so the math is harder.

this is interesting! thanks!

looks like some places could go 100% solar with ease. wonder how they might export large surpluses....and how tesla might fit into that, of course.

[mistymoney]

Now - this seems a little far fetched to me! Off the twitterverse...

When all of a sudden a car is able to make $ for you by picking & dropping off passengers via a software update, all Teslas in the world will appreciate in value to a magnitude the world has never seen in the world of technology. $TSLA

Yes, and only cars made by one specific company will ever be capable of working as robo-taxis and only a few people will buy these robo-taxis and enjoy the huge payoff of their biggest expense becoming a cash flowing asset. There's no chance that the market will become saturated by robo-taxis, that larger corporations with economies of scale and scope will dominate the market, or that most people will prefer to drive themselves rather than waiting on a ratty taxi that picks up and drops off 3 sketchy strangers on the way to work because the algo said that's the optimal way to make money.

Even wilder, the author expects the old hardware (today's Teslas) to receive a "software update" that enables it to become an autonomous, AI-driven taxi business instead of just something which requires a $2,000 set of tires every 30k miles and has an overall cost of ownership similar to a BMW. It could happen, but why would it happen?

this persepctive was strange to me as I guess for the tesla future of autonomous taxi, I was more envisioning a fleet by tesla/other companies, rather than individual owners where your car just takes off out of the drive way to go to work on its own!

Seems like a lot of random variables such as general cleanliness, smokers (either owner or riders), etc.

Having recently used public transit/ubers for about 6 months in between cars, the autonomous, not needing to interact with drivers or added expenses of tipping, etc. would be extremely appealing. If you can super cheaply call an autonomous taxi actual car ownership will become more optional in more places. Given my area and my life, after 6 months car ownership did not seem very optional.

And cost of ownership is not like a BMW! and if someone has a tesla vehicle and tesla roof, this becomes an extremely economical per mile cost. I have tesla insurance and it is amazingly only 100/month. Similar to rates on a 10 year old carolla. When I first thought of upgrading from the carolla I priced out insurance for pricier new car and it was like 2-300/month. So I got another carolla that time. My insurance is going down every month as tesla gets used my safe driving.

One neat thing I learned about tesla charging is that you configure it to only charge when local electric rates are lower. I though that was super cool! Looking forward to getting the tesla roof so I won't care about that!

Does tesla have an advantage over other autonomous potentials? I think they have a huge lead! All the cars are hardware equipped for this, so it really is just a download when it is "ready". What are other EVs doing in this? I have no clue.

[bacchi]

Does tesla have an advantage over other autonomous potentials? I think they have a huge lead! All the cars are hardware equipped for this, so it really is just a download when it is "ready". What are other EVs doing in this? I have no clue.

The leaders, like Mercedes and their Level 3 SAE car, are using radar, which Tesla removed in 2021. Tesla is now adding radar back.

This is why a software update won't work for their older hardware; Tesla would need to release an after-market front-facing radar for their 21-22 cars. Not gonna happen.

[MustacheAndaHalf]

Russia's invasion of Ukraine sent an oil shock around the world in 2022.  Gasoline prices skyrocketed without warning, which meant EVs solved an important problem.  I would guess EV market share hit double digits, and will show up in news headlines when 2022 data is available.

Didn't natural gas prices skyrocket as much if not more, which the EU uses to generate electricity? In fact, the EU passed measures to reduce electricity usage last fall because of the crisis.

https://www.macrotrends.net/2500/crude-oil-vs-natural-gas-chart

That would not have impacted most of the top 10 car buying countries, only 2 of which are in the EU.
https://www.factorywarrantylist.com/car-sales-by-country.html

Germany relied on Nord Stream 1 and 2 for Russian LNG, and I imagine some neighbors (Denmark, The Netherlands) did as well.  Poland didn't trust Russia, and had an LNG terminal to receive shipments, which could explain why their natural gas prices were half of Germany's in mid 2022.  Even in the EU, the impact varied.
https://www.globalpetrolprices.com/Poland/natural_gas_prices/

I think we're talking about two different things here. I'm not disagreeing with the conclusion that EV market share will hit double digits. I'm questioning the assertion that EVs meaningfully currently solve any of the current problems from the oil price spike in the EU.

I keep saying "global" and you keep saying "EU".  Why do you exclude the rest of the world?

[EchoStache]

Does tesla have an advantage over other autonomous potentials? I think they have a huge lead! All the cars are hardware equipped for this, so it really is just a download when it is "ready". What are other EVs doing in this? I have no clue.

The leaders, like Mercedes and their Level 3 SAE car, are using radar, which Tesla removed in 2021. Tesla is now adding radar back.

This is why a software update won't work for their older hardware; Tesla would need to release an after-market front-facing radar for their 21-22 cars. Not gonna happen.

If you read up on Mercedes "Level 3" capability, namely its limitations and where it can be used(i.e. ONLY on the highway at speeds below 40 mph), I think it should not even be mentioned in the same sentence with Tesla.  Leader is not the term I would apply to such a severely limited use case scenario.

Here is what Tesla's FSD is currently capable of:
https://t.co/N3Hb2GdidO

I don't study/follow their progress closely, but I think Tesla is *worlds* ahead of others, including Mercedes.

[mistymoney]

We’ve had robust debate on this thread about the level and timing of competition coming for Tesla. Well, Ford just now has done what no other US legacy auto manufacturer has done before. Ford has broken out their EV business financials from the rest of their business operations. In Ford’s case, three buckets (ICE, EV, and Commercial) or divisions. To those of us who have been preaching Tesla’s advantages as a pure EV play with vertical integration and revolutionary manufacturing processes, the numbers coming out from Ford do not come as a surprise, but are still staggering

I’d summarize, but Rob Mauer of Tesla Daily does an admirable job of putting Ford’s EV financials into context relative to what Tesla has accomplished. One nugget though, Ford grew wholesale EV sales 58% in 2022 over 2021, but increased EBIT losses from 900 million in 2021 to 1.9 billion in 2022.  That 1.9 billion is more than Tesla lost in any year of it’s existence even during it’s most difficult years of ramping the Model 3. Imagine the difficulties for Ford over the next few years as their ICE sales and profits start eroding at the same time Ford is hemorrhaging cash to ramp up EVs. It’s going to get worse for Ford before it gets better.

The competition is going to have to simply survive in order to compete years from now.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ey_HqCIqj0c

For those who see BYD as Tesla’s greatest competition, I agree that BYD has great potential. However, BYD sales in China (in markets segments where Tesla plays) plummeted so far this quarter, while Tesla sales rebounded sharply. Tesla has pricing control in the EV market, and their price drops at the end of last year appear to have shifted demand sharply and started a price war that competitors are unable to match.

Was thinking about this financial side of the EV transition for ford yesterday - and speculating how much they'd be investing in EV right now if tesla wasn't putting the pressure on.

yeah.

[bacchi]

Does tesla have an advantage over other autonomous potentials? I think they have a huge lead! All the cars are hardware equipped for this, so it really is just a download when it is "ready". What are other EVs doing in this? I have no clue.

The leaders, like Mercedes and their Level 3 SAE car, are using radar, which Tesla removed in 2021. Tesla is now adding radar back.

This is why a software update won't work for their older hardware; Tesla would need to release an after-market front-facing radar for their 21-22 cars. Not gonna happen.

If you read up on Mercedes "Level 3" capability, namely its limitations and where it can be used(i.e. ONLY on the highway at speeds below 40 mph), I think it should not even be mentioned in the same sentence with Tesla.  Leader is not the term I would apply to such a severely limited use case scenario.

Here is what Tesla's FSD is currently capable of:
https://t.co/N3Hb2GdidO

I don't study/follow their progress closely, but I think Tesla is *worlds* ahead of others, including Mercedes.

If we're using the SAE levels, then higher is more advanced, right? A Level 2 is more advanced than a Level 1 and a Level 3 is more advanced than a Level 2.

https://www.sae.org/blog/sae-j3016-update

SAE's Level 3, as seen in the link, is only active "under limited conditions." If Tesla was Level 3, it would have similar restrictions. A Level 3 example from the SAE chart is "traffic jam" -- as you noted, it's good for rush-hour traffic on a highway.

Ignoring Level 3's "Look, ma! No hands!", the Merc can of course do everything a Tesla can do when in Level 2 "constantly supervise" mode -- change lanes, brake, accelerate, see emergency vehicles, etc. Do you know of any limitations compared with Tesla's FSD?

[EchoStache]

I don't know that much about Mercedes capability i.e. I know the level 3 approval is supremely limited i.e. only in a specific geo-fenced area in Nevada, only on limited access highway in traffic jam situations i.e. below 40 mph.  That is a ridiculously limited use case scenario to claim level 3 driving.  It's technically true, but does not equate to being able to drive anywhere 95% of the time with limited human intervention.

Tesla's current FSD, as I understand it, can drive anywhere most of the time, with no or little human intervention.  As in, give directions from your driveway, and the car fully drives itself, making stops, starts, turns, lane changes, red lights, etc etc, with the caveat that the driver is required to pay attention and intervene any time necessary.  But from the little bit that I've checked into it, the car sort of literally 95% completely drives itself.

I don't think Mercedes is remotely close to this level of full self driving.  Key word, think.  I haven't researched it but also not finding easy info on what Mercedes can do other than their super limited, certain section of geo-fenced Nevada only highway low speed traffic jam usage.

I'll dig in a bit more when I get time, as I'd like to know how close other manufactures are.

Take a look at the video I posted and see if you know of other cars that have that capability. 

[bacchi]

I don't know that much about Mercedes capability i.e. I know the level 3 approval is supremely limited i.e. only in a specific geo-fenced area in Nevada, only on limited access highway in traffic jam situations i.e. below 40 mph.  That is a ridiculously limited use case scenario to claim level 3 driving.  It's technically true, but does not equate to being able to drive anywhere 95% of the time with limited human intervention.

The Level 3 use case is definitely limited but it's also what literally millions (100k+? in Nevada) of people do every weekday morning and afternoon on the way to and from work. I mostly block out the commutes I used to do but it'd be hella useful if I was still cursing at traffic every afternoon.

Maybe it should be viewed as Level 3 Lite because it's not legally allowed in an urban area (I don't know if it's technically incapable or MB doesn't want the liability).

Tesla's current FSD, as I understand it, can drive anywhere most of the time, with no or little human intervention.  As in, give directions from your driveway, and the car fully drives itself, making stops, starts, turns, lane changes, red lights, etc etc, with the caveat that the driver is required to pay attention and intervene any time necessary.  But from the little bit that I've checked into it, the car sort of literally 95% completely drives itself.

The question is, then, why doesn't Tesla become Level 3 certified?

[StashingAway]

Tesla's current FSD, as I understand it, can drive anywhere most of the time, with no or little human intervention.  As in, give directions from your driveway, and the car fully drives itself, making stops, starts, turns, lane changes, red lights, etc etc, with the caveat that the driver is required to pay attention and intervene any time necessary.  But from the little bit that I've checked into it, the car sort of literally 95% completely drives itself.

I don't think Mercedes is remotely close to this level of full self driving.  Key word, think.  I haven't researched it but also not finding easy info on what Mercedes can do other than their super limited, certain section of geo-fenced Nevada only highway low speed traffic jam usage.

Interesting discussion on AI here, and can be interpolated to self-driving. Basically, the Tesla approach (no engineering compartmentalization of features, just massive data input) is the current way of thinking about AI, but doesn't have to be. I'm not an expert here, but after hearing the breakdown of how AI is working, I've reinforced my views that machine learning self driving is smoke and mirrors. The Mercedes approach seems to be more predictable and manageable.

https://open.spotify.com/episode/2xRqt6pkQdJADMG4DWKaxL

Elon is a self-touted "first principles" thinker and is working very well to upend how we think about cars. He is optimizing cars. But he is not optimizing the human-city interface. He's just reinforcing that it is better for cars to be there and that humans don't belong.

[EchoStache]

I don't know that much about Mercedes capability i.e. I know the level 3 approval is supremely limited i.e. only in a specific geo-fenced area in Nevada, only on limited access highway in traffic jam situations i.e. below 40 mph.  That is a ridiculously limited use case scenario to claim level 3 driving.  It's technically true, but does not equate to being able to drive anywhere 95% of the time with limited human intervention.

The Level 3 use case is definitely limited but it's also what literally millions (100k+? in Nevada) of people do every weekday morning and afternoon on the way to and from work. I mostly block out the commutes I used to do but it'd be hella useful if I was still cursing at traffic every afternoon.

Maybe it should be viewed as Level 3 Lite because it's not legally allowed in an urban area (I don't know if it's technically incapable or MB doesn't want the liability).

Tesla's current FSD, as I understand it, can drive anywhere most of the time, with no or little human intervention.  As in, give directions from your driveway, and the car fully drives itself, making stops, starts, turns, lane changes, red lights, etc etc, with the caveat that the driver is required to pay attention and intervene any time necessary.  But from the little bit that I've checked into it, the car sort of literally 95% completely drives itself.

The question is, then, why doesn't Tesla become Level 3 certified?

It seems like Tesla doesn't want to go after Level 3 legal approval but only under strict, limited area, absurdly limited use case scenarios.  Such as, no one in the entire country has access to it unless you live in Nevada and get in a traffic jam on the intestate on a nice sunny day under 40 mph.

From my understanding, Enhanced Auto Pilot will fully self drive exit to exit on interstate trips with the caveat being that the driver must be ready to intervene if needed.  To me, that's more useful.  Tesla FSD navigates destination to destination in the same manner....fully self drive including in the city but pay attention in case it's needed.  I'm not sure if anyone else has that capability but, I'm not saying they don't....I *think* no one else is quite that advanced but not certain. 

From a practical stand point(not legal, not regulatory), I think Tesla is as capable as Mercedes in terms of being able to fully self drive on the interstate, but can do so anywhere and at all speeds.

I'm taking a road trip in July and might try FSD for a month just to try it out.  It's interesting technology and I'd like to be able to get some first hand experience with it.

[EchoStache]

Tesla's current FSD, as I understand it, can drive anywhere most of the time, with no or little human intervention.  As in, give directions from your driveway, and the car fully drives itself, making stops, starts, turns, lane changes, red lights, etc etc, with the caveat that the driver is required to pay attention and intervene any time necessary.  But from the little bit that I've checked into it, the car sort of literally 95% completely drives itself.

The question is, then, why doesn't Tesla become Level 3 certified?

I'm not Tesla, but again, you can't be Level 3 certified until the car is 100% full autonomy capable.  Mercedes *is* Level 3 capable in 0.1% use case(probably less), so they are 99.9% *not* Level 3 capable.  I don't think Tesla is interested in being Level 3 in 0.1% conditions or less.  They seem to be happier with 95% FSD capable anywhere and everywhere while working towards 100%?

Of all the driving done in the US, what percentage occurs only in Nevada at low speeds on the interstate in nice weather?  It's probably far less than the 0.1% guesstimate that I gave, but it's close enough to illustrate my point that claiming Level 3 certified is basically a joke.

I also think Tesla is in many ways *not* close to actual FSD capability, as in, more than a few years?  Will be interesting to see how things play out in upcoming years.  Maybe Mercedes has it right and you need to start with a tiny bite and add to it over time rather than all or nothing.

[Viking Thor]

I agree with this take. The autonomous car for a tiny area under limited conditions is a joke.

Its literally like 1 in trillions use case when it only works in a tiny geographic area under limited \ ideal conditions, relative to normal driving across the entire world.

I have a Tesla and do not even have FSD just the free auto pilot and it works well on the highway anywhere, although i have to monitor. That seems much more useful to me than a fully autonomous car that drives up to 40 mph on a straight highway in perfect conditions on a tiny geographic area in part of one state,  which is what some companies brag about.

Tesla is way ahead of anyone, many FSD videos of people going road trips hundreds of miles city and highway driving with no takeovers.