Author Topic: Is Tesla a good investment?  (Read 16919 times)

CCCA

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #150 on: September 28, 2018, 12:54:15 PM »
I suppose this is common course with SEC investigations, but it does seem a bit ... well stupid.

"Your tweet was erroneous and manipulated the market" - SEC

Also SEC, "Pardon us while we park this truckload of TNT under TSLA and light it"

I think if he'd taken the settlement (at least the one that is reported), shareholders would have been fine with it. I imagine the stock might even be up on news that he settled.  It's was a little slap on the wrist for something that should definitely be illegal* but mostly just dumb.

*If a CEO can just tweet crap like this out, it sets a bad precedent for any other company to just drive prices up and down anytime they want (and imagine how much the CEO's billionaire friends could profit).
« Last Edit: September 28, 2018, 01:05:52 PM by CCCA »

ILikeDividends

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #151 on: September 28, 2018, 05:30:59 PM »
I expect he will be heavily fined and scolded for his tweets.
The scolding option would appear to be off the table now.  Reportedly (I don't know that is confirmed), the SEC offered (or Musk's attorney was about to propose) an impossibly sweet deal, already posted up-thread.  Reportedly, Musk rejected (or backed out of) the proposal because he couldn't agree to "neither confirm nor deny" guilt.

Seriously?  If that deal went through, Musk would have remained CEO, and it could have inflicted the searing revenge on the shorts Musk was going for in the first place.

All the evidence the SEC cited came from Musk, himself, and from his board members.  They don't just have a smoking gun.  They also have all the bullets recovered from the victims, and they know where all the dead bodies are buried, and have already dug them up.

If the deal was, in fact, offered by the SEC, and then rejected by Musk, I can't imagine the SEC doing anything other than loading up the biggest guns they have, and firing, point-blank, right at Musk.

The SEC's suit is a civil matter.  They don't have to prove motive.  All they have to do is prove the facts.  And most of those facts (all of those facts?) have already been confirmed publicly by Musk, himself.  He has no chance whatsoever of casting any shadow of a doubt on the facts of the case. If it goes to trial, he will lose spectacularly.

I can only imagine that the DOJ is waiting for a nod from the SEC to suggest that there might be criminal charges where motive might also be just as easily provable.  Rejecting an SEC offer (if they even made one) is not likely to endear the SEC to the mess he's put himself into.

If the SEC looks at this holistically, they might surmise that barring Musk from board and officer positions for life might do substantially more harm to shareholders of Tesla and Spacex than Musk has already done.  That might be Musk's only hope left, but I think relying on that would seem an extremely weak strategy on Musk's part.

The SEC and the DOJ are enforcement agencies.  They accomplish their goals by making high-profile examples to send a message to all the other CEOs of public companies.  What kind of message would it send if they walked away now?  Musk has offered them all they need in order to make him a poster-child of bad behavior on a silver platter.  I think pummeling Musk into a gooey splat mark on the sidewalk is a much more likely outcome; especially likely if the SEC actually did extend that sweetheart olive branch which was then rejected by Musk.

« Last Edit: September 28, 2018, 05:53:00 PM by ILikeDividends »

genesismachine

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #152 on: September 28, 2018, 05:52:50 PM »
I read that part of the plea was that he would get a 2 year ban from being Chairman of the board at Tesla. I would say that's more than a slap on the wrist.

Agreed on the enforcement action likely not being pleasant. I doubt Musk is connected enough in Washington to avoid the pull power of those agencies.

The good news for stockholders is that hopefully this will drag out for years and Tesla will be able to mature enough during that time that losing Musk may not be a big deal. There was a time when people couldn't imagine Apple without Steve Jobs either, but he left the house in great enough shape that someone else could take over and take it to the next level.

ILikeDividends

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #153 on: September 28, 2018, 06:01:59 PM »
I read that part of the plea was that he would get a 2 year ban from being Chairman of the board at Tesla.
By itself, I might agree.  But the original suit seeks to ban him from holding both director and officer positions in the future.  That could conceivably be for life, and would affect both Tesla and Spacex.  Taken in that context, I'd regard the offer as a mere slap on the wrist.

There was a time when people couldn't imagine Apple without Steve Jobs either, but he left the house in great enough shape that someone else could take over and take it to the next level.
I think that is an unlikely comparison.  For years before Job's final departure from Apple, he built an incredible stable of executive talent that has since proven more than capable of taking over, and soaring to new heights.  And Apple was extremely profitable when he did finally pass the reigns to Cook.

Tesla is not only unprofitable, they are facing an existential debt crisis in the very near future that is, at the very least, not going to be any easier to resolve by a CEO charged with fraud by the SEC.

Jobs never displayed the kind of bipolar instability that Musk shows.  I hope I'm wrong, but I don't think that's the kind of thing you can grow out of.  Meanwhile, in terms of succession planning, Musk has only proven capable of driving high quality talent away.  Those most capable of filling in for him have already left.

Personally, I don't see this dragging out for more than a few months; certainly not for years.  Any delays will be more a matter of the court's schedule and existing case load than anything else.  The facts are uncomplicated, easy for anyone to understand, and easy to prove, because much (all?) of the proof is already a matter of public record.  Musk is the SEC's star witness; even if he chooses not to testify in the trial, he has already convicted himself in public.

Remember, the SEC's suit doesn't have to prove motive; only facts.  If a motive can be proven, too, a criminal trial would land in the DOJ's lane, and that could conceivably be the next shoe to drop. A criminal trial might take longer to prosecute.  In that worst-case scenario, though, Musk is likely already gone from Tesla and Spacex.

Disclosure: Never long (except via indexing).  Never short.  Merely astonished that such a brilliant man is apparently oblivious to the most basic prohibitions against pointing a loaded revolver at his own foot before gleefully firing off all six rounds.
« Last Edit: September 29, 2018, 02:54:24 PM by ILikeDividends »

ChpBstrd

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #154 on: September 28, 2018, 08:46:23 PM »
Merely astonished that such a brilliant man is apparently oblivious to the most basic prohibitions against pointing a loaded revolver at his own foot before gleefully firing off all six rounds.

Is he really brilliant, then?

I'm sure he has skills I don't have, but I have the brainpower not to use Twitter to violate SEC rules and risk everything I ever worked for. I also know better than to waste my time arguing with internet trolls, depriving myself of sleep, as Musk seems fond of doing.

I've noticed many millions of people are now unable to distinguish having money from (a) being brilliant, or (b) being a great leader. To call a rich person a moron is considered an oxymoron. To call any business owner a poor leader (other than our own bosses) is considered an expression of jealousy. I think it's because media overexposure has made us think of leaders, smart people, or "winners" as overly-dramatic characters. Those roles are always case as over-dramatic people.

However, we should all know it is entirely possible to acquire a shit-ton of wealth simply by being in the right place at the right time or being otherwise lucky. Musk's connections to venture capital explain his ability to found/fund companies a lot better than his apparent skill at running firms or generating organic growth. The guy also loves risk. I estimate 50/50 odds whether he ends up the next Thomas Edison or in jail.

Musk's companies achieved amazing technical feats because they are some of the last American companies to actually invest lots of money into R&D rather than dividends, buybacks, and compensation. Musk's alleged brilliance might just be a result of that budget allocation. Hire 1,000 of the smartest engineers in the U.S. and they will land a rocket vertically.

ILikeDividends

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #155 on: September 28, 2018, 10:03:55 PM »
Merely astonished that such a brilliant man is apparently oblivious to the most basic prohibitions against pointing a loaded revolver at his own foot before gleefully firing off all six rounds.
Is he really brilliant, then?

I'm quite sure that's a debatable point, and that a reasonable argument could assert that he's an idiot, viewed from one's specific perspective.

Founding one public company, and founding yet another that probably could go public, counts for a rare kind of brilliance that few others possess.  I certainly don't possess that ability.  But that's just my perspective.

As with just about any other human, Musk is strong in certain cognitive abilities, and weak in others.  Musk's strengths are exceedingly rare, but his glaring weaknesses are also exceedingly rare; i.e., he is utterly blind to common sense judgements that most other folks take for granted at a fairly young age.

Is he brilliant?  Is he an idiot?  There's no point in arguing.  He is clearly well endowed with both characteristics in large measure.

Is he fit to execute the fiduciary duties of one in his various roles?  Personally, I don't believe that he is.  But that's a question for the regulatory authorities to answer.

If we need to assign only a single label, I'll go out on a limb and suggest we could both agree that he is an idiot savant at the very least; but an extremely highly functional idiot savant who has been able to conceal his disabilities from the general public for quite a long time.  At least until about month ago.

I would argue that the flight of executive talent from Tesla is evidence that his cognitive weaknesses extend much farther into the past than this recent climax with the SEC might suggest, and that escalating pressure on Musk created by having to fill in the gaps caused by that loss of talent is only a symptom of the underlying problem, not the cause of it.  Loss of valuable talent is yet another problem, in my opinion, that Musk created for himself for no discernible reason.

Above all other disabilities, Musk appears utterly incapable of delegating, and utterly incapable of trusting anyone's decision but his own.  There are a lot of positions at Tesla where Musk could add a sh*t-load of value; perhaps game-breaking value.  But an unrestrained CEO and COB are not among those positions, in my humble opinion.

And let's face it.  The BOD, as currently constructed, is nothing more than a Musk puppet.  Tesla has no chance to fix itself without regulatory intervention.  And that's not an assertion that Tesla could survive as a going concern in that or any other scenario, either.  I, hopefully obviously, have my doubts that Tesla will survive at all.
« Last Edit: September 29, 2018, 12:42:59 AM by ILikeDividends »

Cache_Stash

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #156 on: September 29, 2018, 09:39:56 AM »
Merely astonished that such a brilliant man is apparently oblivious to the most basic prohibitions against pointing a loaded revolver at his own foot before gleefully firing off all six rounds.
Is he really brilliant, then?

I'm quite sure that's a debatable point, and that a reasonable argument could assert that he's an idiot, viewed from one's specific perspective.

Founding one public company, and founding yet another that probably could go public, counts for a rare kind of brilliance that few others possess.  I certainly don't possess that ability.  But that's just my perspective.

As with just about any other human, Musk is strong in certain cognitive abilities, and weak in others.  Musk's strengths are exceedingly rare, but his glaring weaknesses are also exceedingly rare; i.e., he is utterly blind to common sense judgements that most other folks take for granted at a fairly young age.

Is he brilliant?  Is he an idiot?  There's no point in arguing.  He is clearly well endowed with both characteristics in large measure.

Is he fit to execute the fiduciary duties of one in his various roles?  Personally, I don't believe that he is.  But that's a question for the regulatory authorities to answer.

If we need to assign only a single label, I'll go out on a limb and suggest we could both agree that he is an idiot savant at the very least; but an extremely highly functional idiot savant who has been able to conceal his disabilities from the general public for quite a long time.  At least until about month ago.

I would argue that the flight of executive talent from Tesla is evidence that his cognitive weaknesses extend much farther into the past than this recent climax with the SEC might suggest, and that escalating pressure on Musk created by having to fill in the gaps caused by that loss of talent is only a symptom of the underlying problem, not the cause of it.  Loss of valuable talent is yet another problem, in my opinion, that Musk created for himself for no discernible reason.

Above all other disabilities, Musk appears utterly incapable of delegating, and utterly incapable of trusting anyone's decision but his own.  There are a lot of positions at Tesla where Musk could add a sh*t-load of value; perhaps game-breaking value.  But an unrestrained CEO and COB are not among those positions, in my humble opinion.

And let's face it.  The BOD, as currently constructed, is nothing more than a Musk puppet.  Tesla has no chance to fix itself without regulatory intervention.  And that's not an assertion that Tesla could survive as a going concern in that or any other scenario, either.  I, hopefully obviously, have my doubts that Tesla will survive at all.

I agree with most of what you posted but I don't think he's blind to it.  I think his hubris is such that he feels above the law because he is trying to save mankind.  This is about his ego and narcissism. He doesn't understand a basic filing with the SEC is required to share the information in his tweet thus showing his ignorance?  I'm just not sure of this.  In my opinion it's either:

1.  Willful Ignorance:  He just can't be bothered to understand and follow the rules (Showing his hubris).

2.  He knew better and felt so compelled to f*ck the shorts he felt he could get away with it (cognitive dissonance?).  (Still showing his hubris).

Either way, what he did was Fraud according to the SEC. I think history won't be kind to him.  I believe he needs to go to jail.  There were many people damaged by his tweet (both long and short!).  Hell, Martha Stewart landed in jail for minor insider trading.  You could hardly quantify her damage to others based on one trade.  Elron cost some investors hundreds of thousands if not millions.

The DOJ doesn't "follow" the lead of the SEC.  Elron opened the door and unwittingly invited them both in to check out Tesla's books.  This isn't going to end well.

It's too bad because he has a lot to offer mankind.

Other problems include:

Who is going to fund the company going forward?  He will be unable to raise capital they are going to need in the next six months and I think it will lead to a declaration of bankruptcy by March unless he can find a sugar daddy to come bail him out.  I think whoever that may be needs to bring about 20BUSD to the table and understand they are likely to lose most/all of it.

The SEC filing a civil suit will be evidence for the class action law suits to utilize for a payout in big dollars - Just staple it to the lawsuit filing and that's all that is needed.

OSHA, UAW and others are also investigating and filing complaints.  People are lined up to take their shots at the company.

This is as ugly as it gets.   

This, of course, is all opinion and conjecture on my part.   
« Last Edit: September 29, 2018, 02:06:44 PM by Cache_Stash »

Antonn Park

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #157 on: September 29, 2018, 01:46:35 PM »
No, no, no. Not right now. I'm not sure Tesla will rebound after news about the SEC.

Cache_Stash

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #158 on: September 29, 2018, 01:56:19 PM »
No, no, no. Not right now. I'm not sure Tesla will rebound after news about the SEC.

I hope you're kidding.  Right?...


tralfamadorian

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #159 on: September 29, 2018, 06:40:09 PM »

ILikeDividends

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #160 on: September 29, 2018, 06:53:43 PM »
Looks like someone changed his mind on the plea-
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/29/business/tesla-musk-sec-settlement.html
Well, that's a surprise.  Looks like Musk ran out of bullets before he ran out of toes.  With an upgraded BOD, and salvaging his CEO position, maybe there's a sliver of hope for Tesla's survival after all.

“The total package of remedies and relief announced today are specifically designed to address the misconduct at issue by strengthening Tesla’s corporate governance and oversight in order to protect investors,” . . .

I actually think the company might be stronger now than it would have been even if Musk had never started that "funding secured" nonsense in the first place.  Funny how things work out, eh?

If I were a betting man, I'd bet the stock bounces pretty hard on Monday.
« Last Edit: September 30, 2018, 02:15:38 PM by ILikeDividends »

Grog

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #161 on: September 30, 2018, 04:37:16 AM »
They have volunteers/owners helping out at the delivery centers. I can't see how such a loyal base will ever let the stock go to 0....if Elon starts a fundraiser to pay off the debt (or some p2p lending system) he is going to raise millions.

Sent from my Hisense A2T using Tapatalk


Cache_Stash

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #162 on: September 30, 2018, 04:41:04 AM »
They have volunteers/owners helping out at the delivery centers. I can't see how such a loyal base will ever let the stock go to 0....if Elon starts a fundraiser to pay off the debt (or some p2p lending system) he is going to raise millions.

Sent from my Hisense A2T using Tapatalk

Where are they going to get funding to continue operating?  The loyal base? 

If they don't get funding in the next three or four months, they are headed to bankruptcy in my estimation.  The effective price will be pennies not zero, but pennies per share.

Retire-Canada

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #163 on: September 30, 2018, 08:33:13 AM »
They have volunteers/owners helping out at the delivery centers. I can't see how such a loyal base will ever let the stock go to 0....if Elon starts a fundraiser to pay off the debt (or some p2p lending system) he is going to raise millions.

Sure he can raise millions that way. He needs billions though and the loyal base doesn't have billions.

ColoradoTribe

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #164 on: September 30, 2018, 11:22:17 PM »
Tesla has been on the verge of bankruptcy for 10 years if you've been listening to the naysayers that long.  There were times in the early going where it was a possibility. I think were past the possibility now. Tesla will likely turn a profit in Q3 or come very close at least. Q4 will be profitable. Tesla will produce close to a half million cars in 2019 using mostly existing infrastructure that was bought and paid for during the rapid growth and reinvestment of the past 5 years. People just don't get it. Anyone who owns an electric car will never buy another gas car in their life. EVs are the future and Tesla has a massive lead on the competition in both infrastructure and technology. But, no need to argue, we'll all get the answer to the thread's title question in the next 3-4 months.

Cache_Stash

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #165 on: October 01, 2018, 06:24:11 AM »
Tesla has been on the verge of bankruptcy for 10 years if you've been listening to the naysayers that long.  There were times in the early going where it was a possibility. I think were past the possibility now. Tesla will likely turn a profit in Q3 or come very close at least. Q4 will be profitable. Tesla will produce close to a half million cars in 2019 using mostly existing infrastructure that was bought and paid for during the rapid growth and reinvestment of the past 5 years. People just don't get it. Anyone who owns an electric car will never buy another gas car in their life. EVs are the future and Tesla has a massive lead on the competition in both infrastructure and technology. But, no need to argue, we'll all get the answer to the thread's title question in the next 3-4 months.

In the past, they have just raised funds through bond offerings and stock dilution.  Stock dilution through an offering is not going to happen.  The bonds on the company have gone to 80 cents on the dollar.  That is junk bond status.  A direct reflection of their financial status.  In the past they have been able to raise funds.  Profitability being positive doesn't necessarily imply a positive cash flow - you can still burn cash while showing a profit.  I don't think they'll sustain either.  One quarter maybe.  Backlog is down.  900 Million in debt due by March 1st.  Just too many obstacles.  They need to complete a hail mary with private equity.  Don't see it happening.  We shall see.

Again, just my opinion.  YMMV.


Finallyunderstand

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #166 on: October 01, 2018, 08:08:56 AM »
I suppose this is common course with SEC investigations, but it does seem a bit ... well stupid.

"Your tweet was erroneous and manipulated the market" - SEC

Also SEC, "Pardon us while we park this truckload of TNT under TSLA and light it"

I think if he'd taken the settlement (at least the one that is reported), shareholders would have been fine with it. I imagine the stock might even be up on news that he settled.  It's was a little slap on the wrist for something that should definitely be illegal* but mostly just dumb.

*If a CEO can just tweet crap like this out, it sets a bad precedent for any other company to just drive prices up and down anytime they want (and imagine how much the CEO's billionaire friends could profit).

I believe you were quite accurate in your prediction. 

genesismachine

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #167 on: October 01, 2018, 10:10:56 AM »
I read that part of the plea was that he would get a 2 year ban from being Chairman of the board at Tesla.
By itself, I might agree.  But the original suit seeks to ban him from holding both director and officer positions in the future.  That could conceivably be for life, and would affect both Tesla and Spacex.  Taken in that context, I'd regard the offer as a mere slap on the wrist.

There was a time when people couldn't imagine Apple without Steve Jobs either, but he left the house in great enough shape that someone else could take over and take it to the next level.
I think that is an unlikely comparison.  For years before Job's final departure from Apple, he built an incredible stable of executive talent that has since proven more than capable of taking over, and soaring to new heights.  And Apple was extremely profitable when he did finally pass the reigns to Cook.

Tesla is not only unprofitable, they are facing an existential debt crisis in the very near future that is, at the very least, not going to be any easier to resolve by a CEO charged with fraud by the SEC.

Jobs never displayed the kind of bipolar instability that Musk shows.  I hope I'm wrong, but I don't think that's the kind of thing you can grow out of.  Meanwhile, in terms of succession planning, Musk has only proven capable of driving high quality talent away.  Those most capable of filling in for him have already left.

Personally, I don't see this dragging out for more than a few months; certainly not for years.  Any delays will be more a matter of the court's schedule and existing case load than anything else.  The facts are uncomplicated, easy for anyone to understand, and easy to prove, because much (all?) of the proof is already a matter of public record.  Musk is the SEC's star witness; even if he chooses not to testify in the trial, he has already convicted himself in public.

Remember, the SEC's suit doesn't have to prove motive; only facts.  If a motive can be proven, too, a criminal trial would land in the DOJ's lane, and that could conceivably be the next shoe to drop. A criminal trial might take longer to prosecute.  In that worst-case scenario, though, Musk is likely already gone from Tesla and Spacex.

Disclosure: Never long (except via indexing).  Never short.  Merely astonished that such a brilliant man is apparently oblivious to the most basic prohibitions against pointing a loaded revolver at his own foot before gleefully firing off all six rounds.

This is a moot point since they announced the settlement, but my point wasn't that Tesla was ready right now for another CEO, but that in the few years I thought they could drag it out, Tesla could be at that point. Swapping CEOs right now would be disastrous for all the reasons you mentioned.

There is still the criminal side of this, which hasn't been announced yet either confirming or denying that the DOJ will pursue this. Knowing the government, I would expect another settlement to come of that part, and it may include some jail time. Hopefully that can be dragged out for a few years.

The fact that Musk didn't have to admit guilt for the SEC portion does actually help him on the DOJ portion. If he came out admitting guilt, the DOJ would have a real easy time convicting.

Cache_Stash

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smallstache

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #169 on: October 01, 2018, 05:35:04 PM »
For the sake of Tesla shareholders, I really hope that Musk uses the experiences of the last two months for a little introspection (or a lot).  The settlement was crisis averted, but there had better be no more dumbass shenanigans.

As a corollary, if I was long Tesla I would use today's move as a chance to get out on a high note.  The damn thing is just way too volatile for me.  My wealth is my future, not a gamble on the whims of a single personality.

Pizzabrewer

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #170 on: October 01, 2018, 05:43:31 PM »
Looks like someone changed his mind on the plea-
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/29/business/tesla-musk-sec-settlement.html

I look at it completely the opposite.  The SEC backed down and settled for the bare minimum mea culpa.  It's a sign of the times.  Those who run roughshod over the rules and established norms are the winners.  Those who stay within the lines are the suckers. 

ILikeDividends

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #171 on: October 01, 2018, 05:48:27 PM »
Ring a bell?

https://thereformedbroker.com/2018/09/28/the-nine-essential-conditions-to-commit-massive-fraud-2/
Scary parallels indeed.  But one striking difference between those other fraudsters and Musk, is that if he does turn out to be a fraud, he'll have been the first one in history, whether intentionally or not, to virtually invite regulatory scrutiny before the house of cards collapsed under its own weight.

The suit with the SEC is settled, but the SEC investigation is still ongoing.  If there is more to the Tesla story than what we already know, it probably won't take very long before we find out.
« Last Edit: October 01, 2018, 06:03:09 PM by ILikeDividends »

Cache_Stash

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #172 on: October 02, 2018, 06:33:30 AM »
Ring a bell?

https://thereformedbroker.com/2018/09/28/the-nine-essential-conditions-to-commit-massive-fraud-2/
Scary parallels indeed.  But one striking difference between those other fraudsters and Musk, is that if he does turn out to be a fraud, he'll have been the first one in history, whether intentionally or not, to virtually invite regulatory scrutiny before the house of cards collapsed under its own weight.

The suit with the SEC is settled, but the SEC investigation is still ongoing.  If there is more to the Tesla story than what we already know, it probably won't take very long before we find out.

You can bet if they file for bankruptcy, there will be a full investigation by the DOJ and SEC.  You're right about how it usually ends.  Bankruptcy then investigation and charges.  The tweet, in my mind, is the beginning of the end.  We shall see.

CCCA

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #173 on: October 04, 2018, 05:13:07 PM »
Musk at it again with Twitter. This time calling the SEC the Shortseller Enrichment Commission and saying shorting stock should be illegal.

Seems like he’s testing the boundaries of his settlement with the SEC.

Cache_Stash

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #174 on: October 04, 2018, 05:49:49 PM »
Musk at it again with Twitter. This time calling the SEC the Shortseller Enrichment Commission and saying shorting stock should be illegal.

Seems like he’s testing the boundaries of his settlement with the SEC.

This shows his ignorance.  Short selling helps with liquidity in the market and more importantly price discovery.

In my estimation he's ignorant when it comes to markets and how to run a business.

ILikeDividends

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #175 on: October 04, 2018, 06:58:42 PM »
Musk at it again with Twitter. This time calling the SEC the Shortseller Enrichment Commission and saying shorting stock should be illegal.

Seems like he’s testing the boundaries of his settlement with the SEC.
Simply astonishing.

It looks like he reloaded his revolver, and is determined to shoot all of his remaining toes off.

wheezle

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #176 on: October 04, 2018, 09:30:24 PM »
Reading his most recent tirade, it sounds like he's given up. I don't know if that means he's splitting from the board or what, but it's wild.

He's blaming his woes on passive funds' lending shares to short-sellers.

ILikeDividends

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #177 on: October 04, 2018, 10:27:12 PM »
I don't know if that means he's splitting from the board or what, but it's wild.

Oh, he's most certainly splitting from the board; at least for 3 years.  That was part of his settlement with the SEC.

But yeah, it's definitely wild, to say the least.

wheezle

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #178 on: October 04, 2018, 10:35:47 PM »
Oh, he's most certainly splitting from the board; at least for 3 years.  That was part of his settlement with the SEC.
Well, that was part of the settlement. Who knows if the settlement will even happen now... I guess it hadn't yet been confirmed. And now?

Earlier on I was thinking that the SEC wanted to settle because they thought the company was going to have to declare bankruptcy soon, and they didn't want Musk to use them as a scapegoat when it happened. Well, they got the settlement, but now Musk is trying to use them as a scapegoat anyway. Didn't see that one coming...

ILikeDividends

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #179 on: October 04, 2018, 11:17:29 PM »
Oh, he's most certainly splitting from the board; at least for 3 years.  That was part of his settlement with the SEC.
Well, that was part of the settlement. Who knows if the settlement will even happen now... I guess it hadn't yet been confirmed. And now?
Fair point.

"Federal courts have thrown out previous SEC settlements if they think the agency is too lenient."

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/04/elon-musks-settlement-with-sec-hits-a-snag.html

The best case scenario for Musk is that his settlement with the SEC is approved by a judge.  If a judge rules that a trial must proceed, or that the settlement should be harsher, despite the recent SEC settlement, it can only get worse for Musk and, possibly, for Tesla shareholders.  His latest tweets are not helping his cause; whatever the hell that cause might be.

IMO, one way or the other, Musk is gone from the COB position for at least three years; possibly longer.  If it goes to trial, Musk doesn't have a leg to stand on.  He will almost certainly be stripped of any possibility of serving on the BOD as well, if a trial goes forward.  My notoriously foggy crystal ball predicts that Tesla shareholders will be fine with that, if that's the only adjustment to the current SEC settlement.

Personally, I think the judge is acting well within the pubic's best interests in questioning the SEC settlement.
« Last Edit: October 05, 2018, 03:19:55 AM by ILikeDividends »

Car Jack

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #180 on: October 05, 2018, 05:31:42 AM »
Looking towards a $275 opening.

smallstache

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #181 on: October 05, 2018, 08:52:49 AM »
The SEC was motivated to be "lenient" in the settlement because it considered the 80% of shares owned by people not named "Elon Musk."

smallstache

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #182 on: October 05, 2018, 08:54:31 AM »
For the sake of Tesla shareholders, I really hope that Musk uses the experiences of the last two months for a little introspection (or a lot).  The settlement was crisis averted, but there had better be no more dumbass shenanigans.

As a corollary, if I was long Tesla I would use today's move as a chance to get out on a high note.  The damn thing is just way too volatile for me.  My wealth is my future, not a gamble on the whims of a single personality.

Hmm.  That proved prophetic.

Cache_Stash

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #183 on: October 05, 2018, 10:51:50 AM »
Musk at it again with Twitter. This time calling the SEC the Shortseller Enrichment Commission and saying shorting stock should be illegal.

Seems like he’s testing the boundaries of his settlement with the SEC.

If you read the comments on the tweet, I would estimate that about 40% of them are from shareholders begging him to stop because he's hurting the longs.  YCMTSU.

He's a self-absorbed individual that thinks he's above the law.  Again, I don't think this will end well.

ColoradoTribe

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #184 on: November 05, 2018, 09:18:00 PM »
I made the following predictions on this thread on March 29 of this year. I predicted Tesla will end 2018:

With at least one, possibly two profitable quarters - Third qtr profit confirmed.
Sell over 250,000 vehicles (S, X, M3), which would be 150% YOY growth - YTD 167,975 cars produced. Third qtr production was 80,142. So, Tesla need only produce 83,000 vehicles in Q4 to hit 250,00 for the year.
Stock price over $400 - Stock price up around $100 in the past few weeks. Suspect we'll approach ATH in coming weeks and climb over $400 with profitable Q4. Stock remains one of the most shorted stocks in the market, but I also suspect we'll see some capitulation soon.

TomTX

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #185 on: November 06, 2018, 04:56:49 AM »
Interesting how none of the naysayers showed up again after 3Q earnings.

nick663

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #186 on: November 06, 2018, 10:24:08 AM »
Interesting how none of the naysayers showed up again after 3Q earnings.
Your last post in the thread was August 7th.  You want to talk about why you disappeared between then and now? :)

Telecaster

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #187 on: November 06, 2018, 11:06:36 AM »
I don't know if I was one of the naysayers exactly, but TSLA stock still comes with a hefty growth premium.   GM and TSLA have about the same market cap, only GM has ten times the revenue.    So it could be that at some point in the future TSLA will be the same size as the GM, but that's a lot of catching up to do. 

lemonlyman

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #188 on: November 06, 2018, 01:49:58 PM »
I've held. $2000/share in 5 years. Tesla is a tech company that sells cars. It's not appropriate to compare Tesla to GM. GM is strictly an auto company. Uber's value is over $50 billion, but Tesla is going to use its existing (and future) fleet of cars to dominate Uber with automated ride sharing. GM has invested in Lyft, but they are years behind Tesla in infrastructure. Even if you did a straight comparison in the auto space, GM can't come close to Tesla on Gross Profit or sales in the categories Tesla already occupies. GM's main product line is the combustion engine. It has billions in assets tied up in that infrastructure. It's bound to its dealer network. I.E. It has every incentive to not fully compete. Tesla still has a long future product line in ride sharing, trucks, manufacturing technology, home energy, utilities, superchargers, and obviously partnerships with SpaceX. In the long run, it's already over.

TomTX

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #189 on: November 06, 2018, 06:15:39 PM »
Interesting how none of the naysayers showed up again after 3Q earnings.
Your last post in the thread was August 7th.  You want to talk about why you disappeared between then and now? :)

Sure. I wasn't interested enough to comment. Some other people seemed Really Committed to the thread in the meantime.

*shrug*

TomTX

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #190 on: November 06, 2018, 06:41:09 PM »
I don't know if I was one of the naysayers exactly, but TSLA stock still comes with a hefty growth premium.   GM and TSLA have about the same market cap, only GM has ten times the revenue.    So it could be that at some point in the future TSLA will be the same size as the GM, but that's a lot of catching up to do.

Sure. I see some big differences:

Tesla has quite a few obvious paths to growth (Expanded production of existing models, entering the crossover market, entering the Semi market, entering the pickup truck market, energy storage growth, energy generation growth...) - while GM is big, I don't really see that much growth potential.

Tesla also has a track record of executing a significant growth rate - on average their annual rate of growth by number of cars is around 50%, starting in 2012 when they launched the Model S. Not totally consistent - last year was something like 35%, this year is going to be something around 100% if not more. GM output is relatively flat.

Tesla has some pretty big advantages for the EV market. They have a high volume (possibly 50% of all EV cells by capacity) source of high quality batteries/cells at a very good price, and that capacity can be ramped pretty rapidly. GM buys cells from LG, and there have been many reports of shortages. GM has some joint ventures in China, but Tesla will be the first foreign automaker to be full owners of their China factory.

If you want an EV that can drive across the USA, you either buy a Tesla and use Superchargers at a mild time penalty charging compared to ICE vehicles - or you take a huge time penalty charging with any other EV.

Despite all the moaning about missed targets, Tesla has ramped the Model 3 to production rates >4000 vehicles per week and profitability. The Bolt, once touted as real competition for Tesla and launched the prior year on an existing assembly line is being produced at maybe 200-300 vehicles per week.

Tesla had losses of ~$2Billion in 2017. GM had losses of ~$4Billion in 2017.

The "GM has 10x more revenue" might have been accurate last year. If you look at 3Q18 - GM only has ~5x more revenue than Tesla.

If Tesla keeps their ~50% growth rate for 4 more years,  they will reach GM revenues. "Some point in the future" is coming fast.

Will Tesla continue to execute well enough? I don't know - but I can see how a compelling story can be written.

Disclosure: I don't own any individual stocks. Just broad based index funds.

Telecaster

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #191 on: November 07, 2018, 11:01:28 AM »
I don't know if I was one of the naysayers exactly, but TSLA stock still comes with a hefty growth premium.   GM and TSLA have about the same market cap, only GM has ten times the revenue.    So it could be that at some point in the future TSLA will be the same size as the GM, but that's a lot of catching up to do.

Sure. I see some big differences:

Tesla has quite a few obvious paths to growth (Expanded production of existing models, entering the crossover market, entering the Semi market, entering the pickup truck market, energy storage growth, energy generation growth...) - while GM is big, I don't really see that much growth potential.

Tesla also has a track record of executing a significant growth rate - on average their annual rate of growth by number of cars is around 50%, starting in 2012 when they launched the Model S. Not totally consistent - last year was something like 35%, this year is going to be something around 100% if not more. GM output is relatively flat.

I agree with all your points.  Here's the thing:  *If* GM is valued fairly, then Tesla needs maintain that growth rate for something like seven or eight more years just to get to the same position where GM is right now.   It is certainly possible that could happen, but the stock price has already priced in all the growth.  Ideally you want a stock with growth potential, but without the price premium.  Easier said than done, I realize. 


Car Jack

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #192 on: November 07, 2018, 12:29:26 PM »
The Wild Card......

VW

As part of the Dieselgate settlement, they have to set up (and are doing it quickly) a nationwide charging network.  Expect a floodgate of VW electric models to open at some point.  VW knows how to build cars.  Like....no.....really.  They do.

DavidAnnArbor

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #193 on: November 07, 2018, 07:53:44 PM »
That loss in 2017 for GM was related to getting out of the European car manufacturing business, i.e. the sale of European Opel-Vauxhall business.

Otherwise the company is very profitable. Also something happened that year where the Tax expense equaled the Income before tax.  I'm guessing that's related to deferred tax assets that may no longer be assets as a result of the tax law changes.

TomTX

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #194 on: November 08, 2018, 12:48:17 PM »
I don't know if I was one of the naysayers exactly, but TSLA stock still comes with a hefty growth premium.   GM and TSLA have about the same market cap, only GM has ten times the revenue.    So it could be that at some point in the future TSLA will be the same size as the GM, but that's a lot of catching up to do.

Sure. I see some big differences:

Tesla has quite a few obvious paths to growth (Expanded production of existing models, entering the crossover market, entering the Semi market, entering the pickup truck market, energy storage growth, energy generation growth...) - while GM is big, I don't really see that much growth potential.

Tesla also has a track record of executing a significant growth rate - on average their annual rate of growth by number of cars is around 50%, starting in 2012 when they launched the Model S. Not totally consistent - last year was something like 35%, this year is going to be something around 100% if not more. GM output is relatively flat.

I agree with all your points.  Here's the thing:  *If* GM is valued fairly, then Tesla needs maintain that growth rate for something like seven or eight more years just to get to the same position where GM is right now.   It is certainly possible that could happen, but the stock price has already priced in all the growth.  Ideally you want a stock with growth potential, but without the price premium.  Easier said than done, I realize.

Please show your math for the 7 or 8 years, using the existing revenue growth rate for Tesla and projecting forward. I already did it for vehicle count, and that was ~4 years to match GM. If you expect the growth rate to slow, please give a rationale.

Note again that 3Q2018, GM only had 5x the revenue of Tesla.

Grog

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #195 on: November 08, 2018, 02:07:49 PM »
Tesla has their data priced in. Gm may have more assets, but they don't have the millions of miles of data log, camera output radar, driver decision etc all synchronized and reused to train their neural network.
Tesla will be selling 250000 car in 2018. If every car runs 10000 miles per year, they will be generating 2.5 billions of miles of data loggin 2019. And this without counting car produced before 2018 and during 2019.
Data is the new oil. Tesla should be worth much more just for their data.
No other car company comes even close to this or has an infrastructure in place to access data remotely and reintegrated in the ai training.
Why do you think they are asking driver for confirmation of lane change in the latest release? Is not only legal issue . They are validating, labeling the data using their customer. Is brilliant. Every time a driver confirm, you create a positive test scenario for training validated by a human. Every time the driver do not confirm, they create a negative test scenario validated by a human for further training.
They know software and AI. Other car companies have no ideas. They are reactive, Tesla is disruptive.
It will be fascinating to see.




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Pizzabrewer

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #196 on: November 08, 2018, 03:36:13 PM »
A company run by a person who can do THIS (see video in the link) is next-level, next-generation compared to GM. 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u0-pfzKbh2k

TomTX

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #197 on: November 08, 2018, 05:39:10 PM »
A company run by a person who can do THIS (see video in the link) is next-level, next-generation compared to GM. 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u0-pfzKbh2k


As much as I admire Elon and the accomplishments of SpaceX (we went to see the Falcon Heavy launch in person) - that's a different company which only makes maybe 2 product items (rockets, Dragon capsules) per month.

Tesla makes maybe 30,000 items (cars) per month.

GM makes 800,000 items (cars) per month.

Quantity has a quality all its own.