Is Tesla a good investment?

[TomTX]

All modern giga-scale nuclear build attempts in the USA and Europe have been project management failures. 4 AP1000 reactors in the USA, all of them massively blew their budgets and timeframes. Two were abandoned after wasting billions of dollars - each! Two are continuing, with continued extensions to budget and timeframe - each of which was at least triple the original promises the last time I checked. For projects started in the USA in the last 30 years, zero have produced a watt of power.

Yes, keep up here. I've already said as much. They were over budget entirely because they got dragged out for so long from public pushback.

Yes, you keep making that unsupported claim. It is not convincing in the slightest without some proof - something you have notably failed to provide. My understanding is that they actually enjoyed noticeable local support. Any large industrial construction project will have some pushback, but nothing I've seen shows they had any unusual pushback.

They are held to way higher safety standards than any other energy source because of public fear

Gosh if only someone in the industry had paid attention to standards requirements and how they had changed since the 1960s before they put in their bid. You know, like any other construction project in the world.

Seriously, the safety requirements were well known before they made their bids and estimates.

Again, massive project management failure.

China proves that they can be built fast and well. That is all. You said they couldn't. They can.

You are seriously misconstruing what I wrote. I suggest reading it again. Can China build nuclear plants fast in China with questionable safety and quality? Sure.

If you think that Chinese nuclear builds to Chinese standards can be built in the USA or Europe, you're going to need to provide proof. Again.

[achvfi]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tesla-cuts-prices-in-china-on-concern-over-softening-demand-153018911.html - Tesla cuts prices in China on concern over softening demand

Interesting bit in the the story for me is

"The automaker cut prices across the board for its offerings in China, with the entry-level Model 3 sedan dropping by nearly 5% to 279,000 yuan, and the entry level Model Y SUV’s price coming down by 9% to 316,000 yuan"

In china tesla is selling model 3 at $38413.88 and model Y at $43508 USD . At the same time in US they are selling model 3 at $47000 USD and model Y at $66000 USD.

Tesla seems to be taking their US customers for a ride for long while now.

[TomTX]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tesla-cuts-prices-in-china-on-concern-over-softening-demand-153018911.html - Tesla cuts prices in China on concern over softening demand

Interesting bit in the the story for me is

"The automaker cut prices across the board for its offerings in China, with the entry-level Model 3 sedan dropping by nearly 5% to 279,000 yuan, and the entry level Model Y SUV’s price coming down by 9% to 316,000 yuan"

In china tesla is selling model 3 at $38413.88 and model Y at $43508 USD . At the same time in US they are selling model 3 at $47000 USD and model Y at $66000 USD.

Tesla seems to be taking their US customers for a ride for long while now.

I expect they have higher costs when making cars in the USA.

[mistymoney]

I have never actually thought about what a car I was going to buy cost in another country - particular one with so different an economic philosophy as china. 

same with houses, clothes, shoes, refridgerators....

[achvfi]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tesla-cuts-prices-in-china-on-concern-over-softening-demand-153018911.html - Tesla cuts prices in China on concern over softening demand

Interesting bit in the the story for me is

"The automaker cut prices across the board for its offerings in China, with the entry-level Model 3 sedan dropping by nearly 5% to 279,000 yuan, and the entry level Model Y SUV’s price coming down by 9% to 316,000 yuan"

In china tesla is selling model 3 at $38413.88 and model Y at $43508 USD . At the same time in US they are selling model 3 at $47000 USD and model Y at $66000 USD.

Tesla seems to be taking their US customers for a ride for long while now.

I expect they have higher costs when making cars in the USA.

Costs may be little higher but not by much. Nah, tesla is raising prices on all vehicles they sell in US just because they can. They made a decision to profit from US while expanding aggressively china.   

When introduced model 3 base was 37K and model Y was 42K and those prices are still close to what they sell in china. Even more astonishing is current price difference on M3 and MY. M3 and MY are almost the same cars with few body changes.

Anyone who buys a tesla in north America at current prices is a sucker. We need more competition in US and its on its way.

[ChpBstrd]

Tesla's high car prices and their high stock price are a result of its high margins. Period.

Consumers are willing to pay these high margins because no other car manufacturers are mass producing products like Teslas (except for a few startups, whose products are not yet widely available).

To me, that's remarkably shaky ground. Most of the world's auto manufacturers are rolling out Tesla-like vehicles in the next couple of years. Tesla will eventually be forced to spend money on marketing, like their competitors are doing, and they will have to lower prices / margins to meet the competition. Meanwhile, Tesla's sales of regulatory credits will diminish.

https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/04/25/heres-the-secret-behind-teslas-industry-leading-ma/

[talltexan]

My FiL was claiming that Musk taking ownership of Twitter was a mechanism for securing his continued access to the marketing platform. Basically, an alternative to the advertising spending you're describing.

[bacchi]

My FiL was claiming that Musk taking ownership of Twitter was a mechanism for securing his continued access to the marketing platform. Basically, an alternative to the advertising spending you're describing.

Expensive way to do it, especially if it becomes an 8kun-lite.

[habanero]

Tesla's high car prices and their high stock price are a result of its high margins. Period.

Consumers are willing to pay these high margins because no other car manufacturers are mass producing products like Teslas (except for a few startups, whose products are not yet widely available).

Not sure about how it is now, but read some years ago that the two companies with the highest margins in the car bizz were Tesla and Porsche. Most manufactureres have pretty crappy margins on new cars, but the business idea is to recapture some of that during the car's lifetime via compulsory services and the non-warranty repair jobs that eventually show up.

Porsche has allegedly for a long time had a strategy of scarcity, they deliberately choose not to fully meet demand to keep prices high and also maintain a good secondary market value for the collectors (of which there are quite a few) and for customers wating to trade their Porsche for a new model.

[Niceday]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tesla-cuts-prices-in-china-on-concern-over-softening-demand-153018911.html - Tesla cuts prices in China on concern over softening demand

Interesting bit in the the story for me is

"The automaker cut prices across the board for its offerings in China, with the entry-level Model 3 sedan dropping by nearly 5% to 279,000 yuan, and the entry level Model Y SUV’s price coming down by 9% to 316,000 yuan"

In china tesla is selling model 3 at $38413.88 and model Y at $43508 USD . At the same time in US they are selling model 3 at $47000 USD and model Y at $66000 USD.

Tesla seems to be taking their US customers for a ride for long while now.

I expect they have higher costs when making cars in the USA.

Costs may be little higher but not by much. Nah, tesla is raising prices on all vehicles they sell in US just because they can. They made a decision to profit from US while expanding aggressively china.   

When introduced model 3 base was 37K and model Y was 42K and those prices are still close to what they sell in china. Even more astonishing is current price difference on M3 and MY. M3 and MY are almost the same cars with few body changes.

Anyone who buys a tesla in north America at current prices is a sucker. We need more competition in US and its on its way.

Have you checked iPhone prices in China and India?
How much is Starbucks charging for a cup of coffee in China?
Is Colgate toothpaste sold at a constant price around the world?

Do you think all these companies are taking their US and international customers for a ride?
Do you know the factors that go into pricing a product?

You don't have to like Elon Musk but your biased comments are not useful at all.

[habanero]

Anyone who buys a tesla in north America at current prices is a sucker. We need more competition in US and its on its way.

Based on the prices displayed on Teslas' US webiste the price for a Model Y Long Rage with no extras added is currently around 10.000 USD higher than what I can buy it for here in Norway (where generally everything is more expensive than in the US). This includes some local fees (bit over 1000 USD) and im not entirely sure if the price also includes some VAT as the rules are about to be changed over here. I think its without VAT but not 100% on that.

The exact difference when converting to USD will vary a bit based on current exchange rate that moves around quite a bit and it generally takes some time and a rather significant movement before Tesla does a price adjustment for that reason.

[bacchi]

Anyone who buys a tesla in north America at current prices is a sucker. We need more competition in US and its on its way.

Based on the prices displayed on Teslas' US webiste the price for a Model Y Long Rage with no extras added is currently around 10.000 USD higher than what I can buy it for here in Norway (where generally everything is more expensive than in the US). This includes some local fees (bit over 1000 USD) and im not entirely sure if the price also includes some VAT as the rules are about to be changed over here. I think its without VAT but not 100% on that.

The exact difference when converting to USD will vary a bit based on current exchange rate that moves around quite a bit and it generally takes some time and a rather significant movement before Tesla does a price adjustment for that reason.

Many of Europe's sales are from the Shanghai plant. Most of the US's sales are from the Fresno, Cali plant.

It's not surprising at all that Tesla cars can be manufactured more cheaply in China vs the US.

[ColoradoTribe]

Tesla's high car prices and their high stock price are a result of its high margins. Period.

Consumers are willing to pay these high margins because no other car manufacturers are mass producing products like Teslas (except for a few startups, whose products are not yet widely available).

To me, that's remarkably shaky ground. Most of the world's auto manufacturers are rolling out Tesla-like vehicles in the next couple of years. Tesla will eventually be forced to spend money on marketing, like their competitors are doing, and they will have to lower prices / margins to meet the competition. Meanwhile, Tesla's sales of regulatory credits will diminish.

https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/04/25/heres-the-secret-behind-teslas-industry-leading-ma/

Way off on most of this. First, consumers are willing to pay a premium because Tesla offers the best value proposition (combination of price-performance/engineering-range). The supercharging network, top safety marks, software advantage, and over-the-air updates and upgrades are also key differentiators. Tesla customers also don’t have to deal with the horrible dealership experience.

There is no real indication that competition is coming any time soon for Tesla. Competitors keep announcing plans and prototypes, but few EVs have reached mass production. The whole, “competition is coming” narrative is based on the false assumption that Ford, GM, Tesla, etc are competing for. a fixed number of EV customers. When in fact the number of EV customers is increasing rapidly and eating into the ICE portion of the pie. It’s not a zero sum game.

Another error in the “competition is coming” narrative is that legacy auto will have sufficient battery supply to mass produce their EVs. Tesla has a huge head start in procuring its battery supply and in manufacturing their own batteries (4680 cell ramp currently underway in Austin). You can’t make EVs without batterie and Tesla’s supply will dwarf the supply of legacy auto for at least the next 5 years as they play catchup.

The “competition is coming” narrative also ignores that GM, Ford, Toyota, VW, etc. will somehow have to wind down their ICE manufacturing (sales already declining), while simultaneously ramping up their EV divisions. Each requires a unique and separate work force. So, they will eat into their profit center while spending billions to create and ramp their EV infrastructure, hiring, training, R&D and marketing for EVs. Ford and GM already have massive debt on their balance sheets, whereas Tesla is printing money and sitting on ~19 billion in cash and virtually no debt. I wish them well, but half of them will likely go belly-up without another auto bailout. 

Lastly, because Tesla has close to 30% margins on auto and the advantage of scale compared to “competitors”, Tesla can easily lower prices while remaining profitable and undercut the competition that will have slim margins until they reach mass production (1 million +/yr).

[PDXTabs]

Just out today Reuters: Tesla faces U.S. criminal probe over self-driving claims

[bacchi]

Tesla's high car prices and their high stock price are a result of its high margins. Period.

Consumers are willing to pay these high margins because no other car manufacturers are mass producing products like Teslas (except for a few startups, whose products are not yet widely available).

To me, that's remarkably shaky ground. Most of the world's auto manufacturers are rolling out Tesla-like vehicles in the next couple of years. Tesla will eventually be forced to spend money on marketing, like their competitors are doing, and they will have to lower prices / margins to meet the competition. Meanwhile, Tesla's sales of regulatory credits will diminish.

https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/04/25/heres-the-secret-behind-teslas-industry-leading-ma/

Way off on most of this. First, consumers are willing to pay a premium because Tesla offers the best value proposition (combination of price-performance/engineering-range). The supercharging network, top safety marks, software advantage, and over-the-air updates and upgrades are also key differentiators. Tesla customers also don’t have to deal with the horrible dealership experience.

There is no real indication that competition is coming any time soon for Tesla. Competitors keep announcing plans and prototypes, but few EVs have reached mass production. The whole, “competition is coming” narrative is based on the false assumption that Ford, GM, Tesla, etc are competing for. a fixed number of EV customers. When in fact the number of EV customers is increasing rapidly and eating into the ICE portion of the pie. It’s not a zero sum game.

Another error in the “competition is coming” narrative is that legacy auto will have sufficient battery supply to mass produce their EVs. Tesla has a huge head start in procuring its battery supply and in manufacturing their own batteries (4680 cell ramp currently underway in Austin). You can’t make EVs without batterie and Tesla’s supply will dwarf the supply of legacy auto for at least the next 5 years as they play catchup.

The “competition is coming” narrative also ignores that GM, Ford, Toyota, VW, etc. will somehow have to wind down their ICE manufacturing (sales already declining), while simultaneously ramping up their EV divisions. Each requires a unique and separate work force. So, they will eat into their profit center while spending billions to create and ramp their EV infrastructure, hiring, training, R&D and marketing for EVs. Ford and GM already have massive debt on their balance sheets, whereas Tesla is printing money and sitting on ~19 billion in cash and virtually no debt. I wish them well, but half of them will likely go belly-up without another auto bailout. 

Lastly, because Tesla has close to 30% margins on auto and the advantage of scale compared to “competitors”, Tesla can easily lower prices while remaining profitable and undercut the competition that will have slim margins until they reach mass production (1 million +/yr).

You should always preface this with "In the US." BYD stopped selling pure ICE cars this year and is outselling (BEV+PEHV) Tesla in China. It will probably top Tesla in BEVs worldwide next quarter, if not this quarter (it sold 95k BEVs in September alone). It will start selling in India next year.

The advantage of a favored Chinese company is that the government has and will provide massive subsidies to ensure its success.

The competition is here but it's not in the US or Europe.

[PDXTabs]

The competition is here but it's not in the US or Europe.

Give it another year or two. CNN: The Chevy Bolt’s huge sales prove America is craving a cheap electric car. This is the current pre-Ultium model.

[waltworks]

Full credit to Tesla for lighting a fire under the legacy automaker's asses.

But yeah, I'd buy a $25k Bolt or a $30k Leaf before a $47k Tesla. They're going to have to make some lower priced cars if they want to compete for the majority of the US auto market (of course, their market cap would indicate they already do).

-W

[Niceday]

To the people who are negative on Tesla, did you listen to the earnings calls? You can find answers to all your questions there. You are not going to have an accurate view if you don't have the latest data.

[ColoradoTribe]

Full credit to Tesla for lighting a fire under the legacy automaker's asses.

But yeah, I'd buy a $25k Bolt or a $30k Leaf before a $47k Tesla. They're going to have to make some lower priced cars if they want to compete for the majority of the US auto market (of course, their market cap would indicate they already do).

-W

Tesla's market cap would indicate they sell their cars for 4X the margin of GM and Ford and are growing sales 50% YOY while Ford and GM have stagnate or declining sales.

[ColoradoTribe]

Full credit to Tesla for lighting a fire under the legacy automaker's asses.

But yeah, I'd buy a $25k Bolt or a $30k Leaf before a $47k Tesla. They're going to have to make some lower priced cars if they want to compete for the majority of the US auto market (of course, their market cap would indicate they already do).

-W

Also worth noting that in addition to regaining the $7500 federal tax credit starting Jan 1, Tesla’s homemade batteries are going to qualify for massive subsidies under the IRA, which has strict made/sourced in America requirements that Tesla says they’ll meet. This is worth billions to Tesla and is an advantage they alone possess. Combined with their pricing power and continued price reductions via scaling (new factories ramping in Berlin and Austin) and improved battery cell efficiencies (see battery day presentation) and Tesla’s margins will only grow from here. Tesla can then choose to drop prices to compete with these cheaper models or offer a lower priced model. It's also worth noting that Nissan and Chevy are likely losing money on each EV they currently sale based on the relatively low volumes they’re producing. Since they don’t separate out their EV sales on their financial statements, these loses are concealed by their ICE sales. As their ICE sales decline expect a very rough transition and years of unprofitability. It took Tesla a decade to become profitable and that’s without the drag of legacy auto manufacturing, unions, entrenched culture, and legacy operational debt.

[waltworks]

To the people who are negative on Tesla, did you listen to the earnings calls? You can find answers to all your questions there. You are not going to have an accurate view if you don't have the latest data.

LOL. I'm not spending my time listening to Tesla earnings calls. Jesus. I'm FI (and didn't get here by listening to earnings calls or trying to pick stocks) and don't give a crap.

I hope they succeed. I'm just saying that in the world of capitalism, if there's money to be made, there will be competition. A lot of it.

-W

[ChpBstrd]

To the people who are negative on Tesla, did you listen to the earnings calls? You can find answers to all your questions there. You are not going to have an accurate view if you don't have the latest data.

I've listened to earnings calls where the company is nearly broke, and management puts on a brave face and talks about their ambitions for the future of the company, yada yada .... and then they file bankruptcy two weeks later - a bankruptcy the executives obviously took a break from working on to do the earnings call.

Still, financial reports alone don't explain everything an investor needs to know. With most companies, one can at least get insights about progress toward technical milestones, challenges, or new product rollouts, but Tesla is very different in this respect. Tesla routinely announces new products and rollout plans that never happen, or take many years to happen. If you hear Tesla say "we're making great progress toward mass-production of the cybertruck and semi" you don't actually know what that means in terms of the when, the how much, or the definition of progress. In the context of a Toyota or GM earnings call, that statement would have a different meaning, because they'd generally be talking about the next year's products or capacities. 

Will the streets be filled with cybertrucks and Tesla semis next year? Maybe or maybe not. But I do know that Tesla is single-handedly responsible for expanding the definition of "vaporware" to include cars.

Vaporware is often announced months or years before its purported release, with few details about its development being released. Developers have been accused of intentionally promoting vaporware to keep customers from switching to competing products that offer more features.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vaporware

Musk's genius has been to tap into venture capital funding to start a car manufacturer while simultaneously keeping potential competitors in the BEV market from investing in new products through the vaporware strategy, which worked like a charm in his old industry of software. The strategy also has a way of pulling in investment capital from people who are used to earnings calls that are not merely stock pitches.

[bacchi]

To the people who are negative on Tesla, did you listen to the earnings calls? You can find answers to all your questions there. You are not going to have an accurate view if you don't have the latest data.

The last one where Musk hinted at weakening sales in China?

[ColoradoTribe]

To the people who are negative on Tesla, did you listen to the earnings calls? You can find answers to all your questions there. You are not going to have an accurate view if you don't have the latest data.

I've listened to earnings calls where the company is nearly broke, and management puts on a brave face and talks about their ambitions for the future of the company, yada yada .... and then they file bankruptcy two weeks later - a bankruptcy the executives obviously took a break from working on to do the earnings call.

Still, financial reports alone don't explain everything an investor needs to know. With most companies, one can at least get insights about progress toward technical milestones, challenges, or new product rollouts, but Tesla is very different in this respect. Tesla routinely announces new products and rollout plans that never happen, or take many years to happen. If you hear Tesla say "we're making great progress toward mass-production of the cybertruck and semi" you don't actually know what that means in terms of the when, the how much, or the definition of progress. In the context of a Toyota or GM earnings call, that statement would have a different meaning, because they'd generally be talking about the next year's products or capacities. 

Will the streets be filled with cybertrucks and Tesla semis next year? Maybe or maybe not. But I do know that Tesla is single-handedly responsible for expanding the definition of "vaporware" to include cars.

Vaporware is often announced months or years before its purported release, with few details about its development being released. Developers have been accused of intentionally promoting vaporware to keep customers from switching to competing products that offer more features.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vaporware

Musk's genius has been to tap into venture capital funding to start a car manufacturer while simultaneously keeping potential competitors in the BEV market from investing in new products through the vaporware strategy, which worked like a charm in his old industry of software. The strategy also has a way of pulling in investment capital from people who are used to earnings calls that are not merely stock pitches.

Vaporware? What the heck are you talking about? Tesla is going to produce around 1.5 million EVs this year. Nissan has been selling the LEAF here in the US for a decade now and has yet to sell 200,000 LEAFs total! If anyone is deploying vaporware, it's GM and to a lesser degree Ford. They keep talking about how many EV models they’ll have  by 20XX, and the date keeps getting pushed back. These companies are expensive airing Super Bowl commercials for EVs you can’t buy because it doesn’t actually exist yet. That’s vaporware!

Do not mistake Musk’s overly ambitious timelines for failure to deliver. The first batch of assembly line semi trucks will be delivered to Pepsi on Dec 1. Cybertruck deliveries out of Austin will start early Q1. Launching new lines is expensive and reduces profitability in the short run. When Tesla is selling every vehicle they make before its made, there’s really little incentive to rush out new product lines. They are launching the Cybertruck and Semi now because their battery supply is growing to the point where it can support new vehicle lines.

[achvfi]

More vaporware

https://www.reddit.com/r/facepalm/comments/yeni5w/elons_boring_tunnel/

"At the time, it seemed that Musk had dished out the Hyperloop proposal just to make the public and legislators rethink the high-speed train. He didn’t actually intend to build the thing. It was more that he wanted to show people that more creative ideas were out there for things that might actually solve problems and push the state forward. With any luck, the high-speed rail would be canceled. Musk said as much to me [Ashlee Vance] during a series of e-mails and phone calls leading up to the announcement. “Down the road, I might fund or advise on a Hyperloop project, but right now I can’t take my eye off the ball at either SpaceX or Tesla,” he wrote."

[PDXTabs]

To the people who are negative on Tesla, did you listen to the earnings calls? You can find answers to all your questions there. You are not going to have an accurate view if you don't have the latest data.

Markets are forward looking, earnings calls are backwards looking. I don't care what happened last quarter at Tesla, I care about how the criminal probe resolves in the future.

[ColoradoTribe]

Just out today Reuters: Tesla faces U.S. criminal probe over self-driving claims

You fell for the FUD. This is old rehashed news, repackaged for clicks. There is an “investigation”, that’s been ongoing for at least a year. It has yielded no charges and is very unlikely to.

Key point from the article.

However, the company also has explicitly warned drivers that they must keep their hands on the wheel and maintain control of their vehicles while using Autopilot.

The Tesla technology is designed to assist with steering, braking, speed and lane changes but its features “do not make the vehicle autonomous,” the company says on its website.

Such warnings could complicate any case the Justice Department might wish to bring, the sources said.

Translation - this whole thing is going nowhere and likely politically motivated.

I’ve saw a Ford or Chevy commercial, can’t remember which, touting their driver assist software (Super Cruise), in which the driver in the commercial is not touching the wheel while the car is in motion. Is Ford or Chevy under investigation? Aren’t they misleading customers?

Tesla is clear, drivers have to keep their hands on the wheel. If they take their hands off the wheel for more than a few seconds the car will sound an alarm and prompt the driver to retake the wheel. Repeated abuse has resulted in drivers losing access to these autopilot features.

There’s no cure for human stupidity and autonomous features save way more lives than the few lost to abuse and stupidity. I could set cruise control and put my fee up on the dash. Is it the car manufacturer’s fault if I then get in an accident?

[PDXTabs]

Just out today Reuters: Tesla faces U.S. criminal probe over self-driving claims

You fell for the FUD. This is old rehashed news, repackaged for clicks. There is an “investigation”, that’s been ongoing for at least a year. It has yielded no charges and is very unlikely to.

Key point from the article.

However, the company also has explicitly warned drivers that they must keep their hands on the wheel and maintain control of their vehicles while using Autopilot.

The Tesla technology is designed to assist with steering, braking, speed and lane changes but its features “do not make the vehicle autonomous,” the company says on its website.

Such warnings could complicate any case the Justice Department might wish to bring, the sources said.

Translation - this whole thing is going nowhere and likely politically motivated.

I’ve saw a Ford or Chevy commercial, can’t remember which, touting their driver assist software (Super Cruise), in which the driver in the commercial is not touching the wheel while the car is in motion. Is Ford or Chevy under investigation? Aren’t they misleading customers?

Tesla is clear, drivers have to keep their hands on the wheel. If they take their hands off the wheel for more than a few seconds the car will sound an alarm and prompt the driver to retake the wheel. Repeated abuse has resulted in drivers losing access to these autopilot features.

There’s no cure for human stupidity and autonomous features save way more lives than the few lost to abuse and stupidity. I could set cruise control and put my fee up on the dash. Is it the car manufacturer’s fault if I then get in an accident?

Also from the article: "A video currently on the company’s website says: 'The person in the driver’s seat is only there for legal reasons. He is not doing anything. The car is driving itself.'" I hope it goes to trial.

[Niceday]

To the people who are negative on Tesla, did you listen to the earnings calls? You can find answers to all your questions there. You are not going to have an accurate view if you don't have the latest data.

LOL. I'm not spending my time listening to Tesla earnings calls. Jesus. I'm FI (and didn't get here by listening to earnings calls or trying to pick stocks) and don't give a crap.

I hope they succeed. I'm just saying that in the world of capitalism, if there's money to be made, there will be competition. A lot of it.

-W

My message wasn't targeting at you. I actually thought you were somewhat neutral. Anyway, FI or not is irrelevant. You don't have the latest information. It's like discussing a movie with friends without first seeing the movie.

[Niceday]

To the people who are negative on Tesla, did you listen to the earnings calls? You can find answers to all your questions there. You are not going to have an accurate view if you don't have the latest data.

Markets are forward looking, earnings calls are backwards looking. I don't care what happened last quarter at Tesla, I care about how the criminal probe resolves in the future.

The main purpose of an earnings call is not to discuss the results. The real purpose is to discuss future plans, and what will happen if various scenarios happen. The fact is you don't have the latest info.

A few of posters here have already told you the market is big enough for multiple car companies. In fact, we need many car companies make EVs. Tesla alone isn't enough. GM building more EV's is welcome and expected(if they don't fail and get bailed out again which is a possibility).

[Niceday]

To the people who are negative on Tesla, did you listen to the earnings calls? You can find answers to all your questions there. You are not going to have an accurate view if you don't have the latest data.

The last one where Musk hinted at weakening sales in China?

And what did the management say if a recession materializes, and many other things?

If the economy weakens, Tesla and many companies, not just car companies, will be pressured. No one is denying that.
What you've been saying is that Tesla will be much smaller because they'll lose market share to other car companies, especially the car companies in China. This just won't happen. Tesla's market share will become smaller. That's just math. It doesn't mean the company or its stock price will shrink.

I don't really want argue with you. I love many Chinese products. The EVs made by the Chinese companies look very compelling and I wish they'll be imported to the United States but that's not gonna happen anytime soon now that we have IRA in place. I feel that you have a hidden agenda. Do you have positions in one of the Chinese car companies?

[PDXTabs]

To the people who are negative on Tesla, did you listen to the earnings calls? You can find answers to all your questions there. You are not going to have an accurate view if you don't have the latest data.

Markets are forward looking, earnings calls are backwards looking. I don't care what happened last quarter at Tesla, I care about how the criminal probe resolves in the future.

The main purpose of an earnings call is not to discuss the results. The real purpose is to discuss future plans, and what will happen if various scenarios happen. The fact is you don't have the latest info.

Yea, because I'm definately going to trust forward looking statements from this guy.

A few of posters here have already told you the market is big enough for multiple car companies. In fact, we need many car companies make EVs. Tesla alone isn't enough. GM building more EV's is welcome and expected(if they don't fail and get bailed out again which is a possibility).

For sure. I'm not saying that Tesla is going to go bankrupt. I'm saying that their stock is overpriced. Not that I don't own any, ~1% of my portfolio is already TSLA from my index funds. I feel no need to hold more than that.

[waltworks]

Anyway, FI or not is irrelevant. You don't have the latest information. It's like discussing a movie with friends without first seeing the movie.

Well, sort of. The thing is, I know lots of people who have been picking stocks for decades. Tesla is a great company. But if you're spending your time listening to earnings calls or what have you, you're probably costing yourself money. All the best investors are dead, right?

I think electric cars are great (I own one) but from an investing standpoint, I'm pretty uninterested in which companies end up making money on EVs. I'm invested in all of the ones you can invest in already (Tesla included), so whatever.

-W

[bacchi]

What you've been saying is that Tesla will be much smaller because they'll lose market share to other car companies, especially the car companies in China.

No, I haven't been saying that.*

Tesla's market share will become smaller. That's just math. It doesn't mean the company or its stock price will shrink.

Yes, their stock price (really, market cap) is destined to become smaller. They're worth more than all of the legacy car companies combined. They will never generate that kind of revenue nor sell that many cars. No government would allow them to become that kind of monopoly.

My contention is that Tesla is a BMW/Audi/Porsche competitor (which also sell SUVs/crossovers). They haven't made any progress to go down-market. Daimler Truck, the largest heavy duty truck company, is only valued at $22B. The robot is at least a decade away and far behind competitors. That leaves self-driving and Tesla is not unique in that R&D. There are at least 2 self-driving cab companies running around my city testing; at least one is hands-off with an employee simply watching.

I feel that you have a hidden agenda. Do you have positions in one of the Chinese car companies?

Probably in IEMG but it's not in the top 10 holdings. I also own Tesla in VTI.

Do you work for Tesla? Do you have Tesla RSUs or ESOs?




* I interpret your wording of "smaller" to mean producing fewer cars.

[Niceday]

I'm just a public shareholder owning the common stocks. I have no affiliations with Tesla.

The market cap is not determined like you described, not to mentioned the legacy companies have all sorts of obstacles(high margin ICE sales and repairs going away, low or negative margin EVs coming online, huge debts, dealerships cooperation, unions, supply-chain, etc). If you look at Tesla earnings and their projected earnings from selling the cars alone(the stock market is forwarding looking afterall), the market cap is justified. What kind of multiple is fair for a fast growing company like Tesla?

btw - "They haven't made any progress to go down-market" - most companies are not standing still. Companies are always working on the next version. This is discussed in their earnings call.

[bacchi]

The market cap is not determined like you described, not to mentioned the legacy companies have all sorts of obstacles(high margin ICE sales and repairs going away, low or negative margin EVs coming online, huge debts, dealerships cooperation, unions, supply-chain, etc).

True. Market cap is determined by what Mr Market says.

If you look at Tesla earnings and their projected earnings from selling the cars alone(the stock market is forwarding looking afterall), the market cap is justified. What kind of multiple is fair for a fast growing company like Tesla?

That's the rub, right? Their multiple might've made sense 2 years ago but does it make sense today? How many (car) sales can Tesla reach without saturating the premium market?

btw - "They haven't made any progress to go down-market" - most companies are not standing still. Companies are always working on the next version. This is discussed in their earnings call.

Yeah but with "It's coming out anyday now" Musk, I'll believe it when it ships. I was going to write "I'll believe it when it's pre-order" but the cybertruck buyers know how that goes.

[ColoradoTribe]

Just out today Reuters: Tesla faces U.S. criminal probe over self-driving claims

You fell for the FUD. This is old rehashed news, repackaged for clicks. There is an “investigation”, that’s been ongoing for at least a year. It has yielded no charges and is very unlikely to.

Key point from the article.

However, the company also has explicitly warned drivers that they must keep their hands on the wheel and maintain control of their vehicles while using Autopilot.

The Tesla technology is designed to assist with steering, braking, speed and lane changes but its features “do not make the vehicle autonomous,” the company says on its website.

Such warnings could complicate any case the Justice Department might wish to bring, the sources said.

Translation - this whole thing is going nowhere and likely politically motivated.

I’ve saw a Ford or Chevy commercial, can’t remember which, touting their driver assist software (Super Cruise), in which the driver in the commercial is not touching the wheel while the car is in motion. Is Ford or Chevy under investigation? Aren’t they misleading customers?

Tesla is clear, drivers have to keep their hands on the wheel. If they take their hands off the wheel for more than a few seconds the car will sound an alarm and prompt the driver to retake the wheel. Repeated abuse has resulted in drivers losing access to these autopilot features.

There’s no cure for human stupidity and autonomous features save way more lives than the few lost to abuse and stupidity. I could set cruise control and put my fee up on the dash. Is it the car manufacturer’s fault if I then get in an accident?

Also from the article: "A video currently on the company’s website says: 'The person in the driver’s seat is only there for legal reasons. He is not doing anything. The car is driving itself.'" I hope it goes to trial.

I must have missed the part in quoted text above where it says the driver does’t have to pay attention or keep his/her hands on the wheel. Saying the car drives itself AND you need to be ready to take over at any time, are not incompatible or contradictory statements? It's not going anywhere. Its old news republished to spark FUD and dupe retail investors out of their shares. Any if you think Tesla should be charged then I assume Ford/Chevy should be as well for airing a commercial with a driver in a moving vehicle without his hands on the wheel? Or is your outrage and concern on this matter reserved for Tesla?

[mistymoney]

Meanwhile.....

New York
CNN Business
 —
Elon Musk has completed his $44 billion deal to buy Twitter, a source familiar with the deal told CNN Thursday, putting the world’s richest man in charge of one of the world’s most influential social media platforms.

Musk fired CEO Parag Agrawal and two other executives, according to two people familiar with the decision. Twitter declined to comment.

common Elon, stop farting around and get me my domestic assistance robot!

;P

[ChpBstrd]

Tesla ATV for kids recalled for violating safety standards
https://www.cnn.com/2022/10/29/business/tesla-cyberquad-recall/index.html

One the one hand, this is a sign of the hubris involved with taking a software development approach to the design of physical vehicles. Really, nobody at Tesla looked up the legal requirements for an ATV product? How does that bode for their other products?

On the other hand, this is another example of Tesla vehicle owners suffering no depreciation after years of use. If I owned one of these, there's no freaking way I'd cooperate with the recall, because these were already collector's items and the government just made working models a lot rarer!!!

There's somebody on ebay selling one NIB for $3400 + $325 shipping. Probably a better deal than Tesla stock.

[TomTX]

The competition is here but it's not in the US or Europe.

Give it another year or two. CNN: The Chevy Bolt’s huge sales prove America is craving a cheap electric car. This is the current pre-Ultium model.

Another year or two? GM has been dawdling on Bolt since before Model 3 came out.

Next year when GM is planning to make 70,000 Bolts (sedan+ EUV), Tesla is very likely to make well over 2,000,000 Model 3/Y.

[mistymoney]

The Twitter mess has hurt Tesla (TSLA) investors in the past few weeks. Shares of Elon Musk's electric car giant have tumbled since he took over the social media app and seemingly diverted much of his attention to the little blue bird. One prominent Tesla analyst has grown tired of the drama.

Dan Ives, a prominent, widely quoted analyst with Wedbush Securities, has historically been a big fan of Musk and prominent supporter of Tesla stock. But Ives said in a report Thursday that he was removing Tesla from his list of best ideas because Twitter had turned into an "albatross" for Musk.

He wrote that it could be "a very nervous few months ahead for Tesla investors as they remain the ones that have been punched again and again by the Musk Twitter antics." He added that "the stock now is deep in the investor penalty box."

Ives also said that the Twitter saga is "a dark comedy show" and that "Musk has essentially tarnished the Tesla story." He worries that this "ongoing Twitter train wreck disaster" could "potentially impact the Tesla brand."

Ives is keeping his "outperform" rating on Tesla stock for now, but he cut his price target from $300 to $250. (Tesla is now trading around $188 following a 6% pop Thursday.) And Ives noted the "Musk overhang...gets worse by the day."

https://www.cnn.com/business/live-news/stock-market-inflation-cpi-report/index.html

Not that musk would ever listen to anyone....but...these opinoins are out there.

Was talking with someone yesterday about musk being such a bad sport - actually banning people on twitter who take a comedy swipe at him.

And then pushing for people to vote republican...very hypocritical.

[lemonlyman]

I love these prices. 50x trailing 12 month EPS. Q4 will compress that to 32x while growing at 50%/year in production and earnings are growing even faster. Tesla Semi deliveries start in a couple of weeks. Cybertruck is in tooling. The company and Elon are running at really HIGH negativity right now in the media that will fade over time like everything does. Anyway, I think 2023 earnings will be somewhere around $9/share so current Forward EPS of 20 for my numbers. Even Yahoo Finance has a Forward PE of 35 which is wild. Their forecasts are starting to make more sense. It would be great if Elon would stop doing Elon things and hire Amazon's PR team (90x EPS on 20% growth) because TSLA would be a monster, but we'll just have to leave it to the long term scale of printing cash and profits with high growth instead of short term noise.

GM doesn't expect to be profitable on its EV program until 2025. That's a long time frame for an established OEM and investors at this point in this decade. It's not 2010s anymore. Rivian could beat GM to profitability. That's wild.

[mistymoney]

I love these prices. 50x trailing 12 month EPS. Q4 will compress that to 32x while growing at 50%/year in production and earnings are growing even faster. Tesla Semi deliveries start in a couple of weeks. Cybertruck is in tooling. The company and Elon are running at really HIGH negativity right now in the media that will fade over time like everything does. Anyway, I think 2023 earnings will be somewhere around $9/share so current Forward EPS of 20 for my numbers. Even Yahoo Finance has a Forward PE of 35 which is wild. Their forecasts are starting to make more sense. It would be great if Elon would stop doing Elon things and hire Amazon's PR team (90x EPS on 20% growth) because TSLA would be a monster, but we'll just have to leave it to the long term scale of printing cash and profits with high growth instead of short term noise.

GM doesn't expect to be profitable on its EV program until 2025. That's a long time frame for an established OEM and investors at this point in this decade. It's not 2010s anymore. Rivian could beat GM to profitability. That's wild.

that is a very positive spin. I've been wanting to buy some more but hesitating.

My only concern on the company is elon turning potential buyers in 'never tesla' people. Not sure how that will play out over time.

[lemonlyman]

Legit concern for sure. Hard to say and hard to model. I don’t know the answer. I, personally, know someone who bought a Volvo EV because of not liking Elon. So the effect is definitely not zero, but there are many tailwinds behind the company including tax credits for individuals in 2023 and corporate credits for manufacturing batteries in the USA. 2023 would definitely be a bellwether in the United States if they couldn’t sell production. That would change my opinion for sure.

Don’t do anything on my spin. My numbers are mine and I could be very wrong. Only managing my own money.

[mistymoney]

thank, still considering it. As you say - price is attractive and things are about to happen.....alledgedly!

[mistymoney]

tesla trading lower on musk potentially moving aside as CEO...

Elon Musk's Successor As Tesla CEO: Analyst Names Apple, Ex-Volkswagen Execs Among Lead Contenders
7:17 am ET November 18, 2022 (Benzinga) Print
Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) shares came under selling pressure on Thursday after board member word got around that a succession plan for CEO Elon Musk is in the works. Tesla bulls dismissed the development as "good corporate governance" and said a change at the helm may not happen any time soon. Specifically, Loup Funds Managing Partner Gene Munster said a new CEO announcement could be two to three years away.

The venture capitalist on Thursday put forward a list of potential replacements for Musk, taking into account both internal and external candidates. The list has been arranged in the order of probability, he added.

1. Herbert Deiss: The former CEO of German automaker Volkswagen AG (OTC: VWAGY), Deiss is the most probable successor from the list of seven candidates, Munster said. Two things working in his favor are his quest toward rapid electrification even while he was at the German automaker, and the respect he commands from Musk.

2. J.B. Straubel: Straubel, the CEO and founder of Redwood Materials and co-founder of Tesla, is strong when it comes to batteries — an important component of electric vehicles — Munster said. Additionally, he has a “level-headed business approach and a steady-handed personality” — characteristic traits that appeal to investors, Munster added.

Munster brought up the possibility of Tesla acquiring Redwood and Straubel taking over as CEO. Despite leaving Tesla, he serves as an advisor to the EV maker and remains on favorable terms with Musk, the Loup Funds co-founder said.

[GilesMM]

I love these prices. ...

Stand by to love even better prices. There is speculation the stock could sink as low as $100/share, which would still value it at something like 7X the market cap of GM.

[lemonlyman]

I love these prices. ...

Stand by to love even better prices. There is speculation the stock could sink as low as $100/share, which would still value it at something like 7X the market cap of GM.

Sounds good! $100/share would be 11x 2023 earnings, 5x 2024 earnings and 4x 2025 earnings for my models. Deep value that would play out in the long term vs short term. GM makes less profit than Tesla today with 3x the revenue. What will GMs earnings be next year? Probably less than this year. I don't model GM. It has a horrendous balance sheet and has a massive undertaking in front of it regarding capex and op ex spend for transitioning it's ICE production to EV. Totally possible it might be a good investment later in the decade, but I don't believe GM has any significant top line growth in it and massive execution risk for the next 3-5 years.

[mistymoney]

I love these prices. ...

Stand by to love even better prices. There is speculation the stock could sink as low as $100/share, which would still value it at something like 7X the market cap of GM.

Sounds good! $100/share would be 11x 2023 earnings, 5x 2024 earnings and 4x 2025 earnings for my models. Deep value that would play out in the long term vs short term. GM makes less profit than Tesla today with 3x the revenue. What will GMs earnings be next year? Probably less than this year. I don't model GM. It has a horrendous balance sheet and has a massive undertaking in front of it regarding capex and op ex spend for transitioning it's ICE production to EV. Totally possible it might be a good investment later in the decade, but I don't believe GM has any significant top line growth in it and massive execution risk for the next 3-5 years.

I saw some fleeting headline - can't recall - that mentioned tesla was getting into value stock category.

Still tempted to get more, still worried about the growning never tesla crowd. Still thinking about.

[waltworks]

I'm personally rooting for Twitter to collapse, forcing Musk to sell a ton of Tesla stock (maybe even getting him booted as CEO?), and dropping the price a bunch.

I think at this point Musk walking off into the sunset would be a good thing for both the company and humanity.

Then I'd actually consider buying an individual stock for the first time ever.

-W