Is Tesla a good investment?

[achvfi]

I drove Tesla model Y few days ago. Its a fine car, but felt too plain for a 74 thousand dollar car . I was not impressed.

[Freedomin5]

Do you all think the split will have any direct effect on the current stock price?

The last time TSLA split, it was a 1 to 5 split. The stock price per share fell, but then quickly ramped back up to current levels. I'm assuming the upcoming 1 to 3 split will follow a similar trajectory.

[mistymoney]

Do you all think the split will have any direct effect on the current stock price?

The last time TSLA split, it was a 1 to 5 split. The stock price per share fell, but then quickly ramped back up to current levels. I'm assuming the upcoming 1 to 3 split will follow a similar trajectory.

so far your prediction is on track, lol!

[ChpBstrd]

Do you all think the split will have any direct effect on the current stock price?

The last time TSLA split, it was a 1 to 5 split. The stock price per share fell, but then quickly ramped back up to current levels. I'm assuming the upcoming 1 to 3 split will follow a similar trajectory.

so far your prediction is on track, lol!

Isn't the current post-split price an amount where an ape could buy one share with weekly after-tax earnings from a minimum wage job? Is that the reason for the splits?

[MinorMiner]

I would recommend this video to anyone who has an interest in investing in Tesla: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xpzJPe1DrzQ. Tesla's self driving software is still improving rapidly. When (Not if) this software surpasses human driving ability, it will be massively valuable. I suspect that this will occur in the next couple of years.

[mistymoney]

I would recommend this video to anyone who has an interest in investing in Tesla: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xpzJPe1DrzQ. Tesla's self driving software is still improving rapidly. When (Not if) this software surpasses human driving ability, it will be massively valuable. I suspect that this will occur in the next couple of years.

Not sure I found that video super-informative. But it does seem that it is getting ready for prime time.

I was wondering if this is why the semi production is ahead of the cybertruck. If FSD is going to come into being sooner, the demand on the semi I think will be huge.

[ColoradoTribe]

I predict Tesla will go on a run between now and the eve of the Q3 earnings report that will have the SP in the neighborhood of ATHs. Current quarter, barring anything crazy in the final few weeks, is going to be record setting across the board. Overdue upgrade from ratings agencies to investment grade could bump stock price as well. Not investing advice and I’m holding regardless, just putting down a marker.

[MinorMiner]

I would recommend this video to anyone who has an interest in investing in Tesla: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xpzJPe1DrzQ. Tesla's self driving software is still improving rapidly. When (Not if) this software surpasses human driving ability, it will be massively valuable. I suspect that this will occur in the next couple of years.

Not sure I found that video super-informative. But it does seem that it is getting ready for prime time.

I was wondering if this is why the semi production is ahead of the cybertruck. If FSD is going to come into being sooner, the demand on the semi I think will be huge.

The purpose of this video is as a raw data point on the progression of FSD beta for those who do not have the ability to get hands on experience.

I have a M3 with FSD beta. While I am still a better driver than it overall, I increasingly have moments where the car makes better decisions than me. It is very weird having a computer understand the world better than I do. This is not a trend that will reverse.

[StashingAway]

I would recommend this video to anyone who has an interest in investing in Tesla: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xpzJPe1DrzQ. Tesla's self driving software is still improving rapidly. When (Not if) this software surpasses human driving ability, it will be massively valuable. I suspect that this will occur in the next couple of years.

Not sure I found that video super-informative. But it does seem that it is getting ready for prime time.

I was wondering if this is why the semi production is ahead of the cybertruck. If FSD is going to come into being sooner, the demand on the semi I think will be huge.

The purpose of this video is as a raw data point on the progression of FSD beta for those who do not have the ability to get hands on experience.

I have a M3 with FSD beta. While I am still a better driver than it overall, I increasingly have moments where the car makes better decisions than me. It is very weird having a computer understand the world better than I do. This is not a trend that will reverse.

I think the semi will see a lot of economic constraints... long haul trucking just isn't a prime use of battery tech. Fuel density and charging networks have a lot of work to do. How are you going to get a charger network on I-80 to handle any reasonable amount of big rig EV traffic? It requires entire new substations and high voltage lines. The AI on the other hand I agree will be a total game changer if it gets to the point of being completely driverless.

My personal guess, too, is that the cybertruck has difficulty meeting crash test requirements with that hard stainless construction. That's even more speculation on my part and it could be many factors, but I have yet to see any evidence that they've overcome this aspect.

[waltworks]

I'm not sure how this will affect Tesla, but I just got a Nissan Leaf and wow, it's great. Costs very little (it was like $10k used), plenty of range for the in-town sort of stuff I want to use it fork, and costs pennies a mile to operate.

It sounds like the newer Leaf (which costs ~$25 after tax incentives) has a 250 mile range which is probably in the ballpark of what people will accept so it seems like there's going to be more competition for Tesla as soon as the world can make enough batteries and charging stations.

So I'm bullish as hell on electric cars. I'm neutral on Tesla in particular, because that space is about to get really crowded it seems.

-W

[bacchi]

I'm not sure how this will affect Tesla, but I just got a Nissan Leaf and wow, it's great. Costs very little (it was like $10k used), plenty of range for the in-town sort of stuff I want to use it fork, and costs pennies a mile to operate.

It sounds like the newer Leaf (which costs ~$25 after tax incentives) has a 250 mile range which is probably in the ballpark of what people will accept so it seems like there's going to be more competition for Tesla as soon as the world can make enough batteries and charging stations.

So I'm bullish as hell on electric cars. I'm neutral on Tesla in particular, because that space is about to get really crowded it seems.

-W

What year, @waltworks ? We need to get a new car and an "around town" EV is the best choice.

[Abe]

Ugh, my car got hit with a malfunctioning AC sensor, replacements for which are floating off the coast of California apparently. This isn't specific to electric cars, and should be temporary, but shows that supply chain issues affect more than just batteries. I can see how this'll make a dent in profits for a while yet.

[waltworks]

I'm not sure how this will affect Tesla, but I just got a Nissan Leaf and wow, it's great. Costs very little (it was like $10k used), plenty of range for the in-town sort of stuff I want to use it fork, and costs pennies a mile to operate.

It sounds like the newer Leaf (which costs ~$25 after tax incentives) has a 250 mile range which is probably in the ballpark of what people will accept so it seems like there's going to be more competition for Tesla as soon as the world can make enough batteries and charging stations.

So I'm bullish as hell on electric cars. I'm neutral on Tesla in particular, because that space is about to get really crowded it seems.

-W

What year, @waltworks ? We need to get a new car and an "around town" EV is the best choice.

It's a 2017, so first-gen, but a little more range than the 2011-2016s that do like 80 or so. 2018 and later are 150+ miles but the price is higher.

We decided that for our road-trip use, even the newest/longest range stuff won't cut it because we have 5 family members and a ton of gear, so it's ICE for those scenarios for now. But we have a 20 minute commute (for the time being) and the Leaf saves us at least $100 a week versus the giant gas guzzler around town. If in a year we move closer in to town (or back to our old digs where there's no need to car commute at all) we'll sell it and as long as we can get like half the purchase price we'll have broken even.

I will say that rolling up to the gas station now in our ICE truck just seems... wrong. I literally feel weird doing it. I dread dealing with changing the oil or various filters or hearing about how I need the transmission flushed. So stupid.

Once there's a vehicle that can do all our stuff/people that's <$50k, I'll never own an ICE car again, I think. Hell, it might make sense to just rent an ICE minivan when we want to road trip.

We have yet to see how the Leaf does on snowy roads, but I've heard good things.

-W

[ChpBstrd]

So I'm bullish as hell on electric cars. I'm neutral on Tesla in particular, because that space is about to get really crowded it seems.

Crowded like this?
https://www.cnn.com/2022/09/08/business/chevrolet-equinox-ev/index.html

Tesla will soon be just one of a dozen luxury EV manufacturers.

[mistymoney]

ouch, baby.

very ouch.

[ATtiny85]

Ah, Market does what Market does. I bet some folks are scratching their heads after today.

[bacchi]

Ah, Market does what Market does. I bet some folks are scratching their heads after today.

Delivery problems or a weakening in certain markets, such as China?

[ChpBstrd]

This article says Elon Musk's text messages reveal he is surrounded by yes-men who tell him whatever he wants to hear.

https://slate.com/technology/2022/09/elon-musk-text-messages-twitter-yes-men.html

This could explain a lot.

[bacchi]

This article says Elon Musk's text messages reveal he is surrounded by yes-men who tell him whatever he wants to hear.

https://slate.com/technology/2022/09/elon-musk-text-messages-twitter-yes-men.html

This could explain a lot.

It's amazing that even very wealthy people can still act like fawning sycophants.

[Viking Thor]

Ah, Market does what Market does. I bet some folks are scratching their heads after today.

Delivery problems or a weakening in certain markets, such as China?

They currently have a huge order backlog so could easily deliver cars elsewhere if demand in China softens.

I think it was smart not to continue the practice of huge end of quarter disruption and added cost just to deliver by end of quarter for financial accounting.

It makes sense to have some small gap between produced and delivered, so if anything this is a 1x adjustment that is increasing productivity.

Pretty sure there will be significantly more cars delivered 4q than 3q showing that demand is more than sufficient at current production levels.

However I think the question is, how long can they continue to grow production at a high rate and still sell all their cars.

I feel they can do so in the near term but I think the jury is still out longer term.

[mistymoney]

what are people thinking about their plant watering robot?

I'm excited, been waiting for Rosie for decades!!! but concerned about the implications for other promises, like the cybertruck.

[ChpBstrd]

what are people thinking about their plant watering robot?

I'm excited, been waiting for Rosie for decades!!! but concerned about the implications for other promises, like the cybertruck.

See, someday the robot will drive a Cybertruck through a Boring underground tunnel to a Starship powered by solar roof shingles on its way to Elon's Mars colony.

And if that doesn't sound completely plausible to you, just wait for the next product announcement which will fill in the gaps with a new Thing Of The Moment!

[mistymoney]

Interested in the thoughts from the tesla bulls on recent developments. I think there is a lot of good news for the company, the semi coming out this year for Pepsi, the giga press for the cybertruck being delivered, and of course the future robot ;P.

But then the ongoing elon shit show of shit publicity and then there were some disappointment with Q3 deliveries although financials won't be aired until Oct 19.

Any conerns? Wait-and-see? Buying op?

Curious how you all are seeing this.

I'm also curious how much you all think musk and tesla intertwine. I think he was great for the company initially, but I am not sure how much his visionary, attention garnering role is needed anymore. I'm not sure how much the cutting edge of tesla depends on him vs those in the trenches.

And I worry that his management style could really reple the top talent that tesla needs. It's been said the consumers are getting more EV options - which while true, doesn't really take away from Tesla's place in the market. However, that also means that potential and current employees also have more choices, and thanks to tesla's success - those paths at other companies are open to them.

I really love tesla, the weird range and yet cohesiveness of their offerings - cars, roofs, powerwall....and I'm hoping they robot their way to a household rosie. But musk is becoming increasingly unlikeable to a broader public - in ways that can very much hurt the company - like tweeting about the Ukrainian war and his misguided ideas favoring russia, getting super political. Let's just say I have concerns! I wish he'd knuckle down and get this cybertruck out the door and stop trying insert himself into everything. looking pretty narcissistic.

[achvfi]

Interested in the thoughts from the tesla bulls on recent developments. I think there is a lot of good news for the company, the semi coming out this year for Pepsi, the giga press for the cybertruck being delivered, and of course the future robot ;P.

But then the ongoing elon shit show of shit publicity and then there were some disappointment with Q3 deliveries although financials won't be aired until Oct 19.

Any conerns? Wait-and-see? Buying op?

Curious how you all are seeing this.

I'm also curious how much you all think musk and tesla intertwine. I think he was great for the company initially, but I am not sure how much his visionary, attention garnering role is needed anymore. I'm not sure how much the cutting edge of tesla depends on him vs those in the trenches.

And I worry that his management style could really reple the top talent that tesla needs. It's been said the consumers are getting more EV options - which while true, doesn't really take away from Tesla's place in the market. However, that also means that potential and current employees also have more choices, and thanks to tesla's success - those paths at other companies are open to them.

I really love tesla, the weird range and yet cohesiveness of their offerings - cars, roofs, powerwall....and I'm hoping they robot their way to a household rosie. But musk is becoming increasingly unlikeable to a broader public - in ways that can very much hurt the company - like tweeting about the Ukrainian war and his misguided ideas favoring russia, getting super political. Let's just say I have concerns! I wish he'd knuckle down and get this cybertruck out the door and stop trying insert himself into everything. looking pretty narcissistic.

I can relate to your feelings. As impressed as I am with Tesla and their contributions to super charge EV adoption being a successful example in the space, I decided I will never buy any of their products because of Elon and his antics. He is toxic and a bully. I hate Bullies. Any other CEO would have been thrown out by now.

While tesla has been a great investment so far, they will have to contend plenty of competition in EV space for years to come. 30 to 40 automobile manufacturers are in various stages of making EVs for mass adoption.

[mistymoney]

Interested in the thoughts from the tesla bulls on recent developments. I think there is a lot of good news for the company, the semi coming out this year for Pepsi, the giga press for the cybertruck being delivered, and of course the future robot ;P.

But then the ongoing elon shit show of shit publicity and then there were some disappointment with Q3 deliveries although financials won't be aired until Oct 19.

Any conerns? Wait-and-see? Buying op?

Curious how you all are seeing this.

I'm also curious how much you all think musk and tesla intertwine. I think he was great for the company initially, but I am not sure how much his visionary, attention garnering role is needed anymore. I'm not sure how much the cutting edge of tesla depends on him vs those in the trenches.

And I worry that his management style could really reple the top talent that tesla needs. It's been said the consumers are getting more EV options - which while true, doesn't really take away from Tesla's place in the market. However, that also means that potential and current employees also have more choices, and thanks to tesla's success - those paths at other companies are open to them.

I really love tesla, the weird range and yet cohesiveness of their offerings - cars, roofs, powerwall....and I'm hoping they robot their way to a household rosie. But musk is becoming increasingly unlikeable to a broader public - in ways that can very much hurt the company - like tweeting about the Ukrainian war and his misguided ideas favoring russia, getting super political. Let's just say I have concerns! I wish he'd knuckle down and get this cybertruck out the door and stop trying insert himself into everything. looking pretty narcissistic.

I can relate to your feelings. As impressed as I am with Tesla and their contributions to super charge EV adoption being a successful example in the space, I decided I will never buy any of their products because of Elon and his antics. He is toxic and a bully. I hate Bullies. Any other CEO would have been thrown out by now.

While tesla has been a great investment so far, they will have to contend plenty of competition in EV space for years to come. 30 to 40 automobile manufacturers are in various stages of making EVs for mass adoption.

I really wish they would throw him out. I've been trying to differentiate between him and the company, but it is more difficult than other companies because he's become such a media whore. I want to tell him to shut his pie hole, no cares about his opinoin on the war!

One thing that is holding me to tesla has been the company's environmental focus. Other companies are jumping on the EV band wagon to serve changing consumer preferences, whereas tesla created those preferences for a higher good. Also the integration of tesla roof, powerwall, and homecharging seem the best way for individual consumers to significantly lower their own footprint. These are critical aspects of the company for me.

Musk usefulness could continue if he gets tesla a good deal on lithium mined off mars via spacex, but barring that, I'm not sure.

I'm sure you aren't the only consumer put off of tesla products by this baffoon. And that is why I wonder if he is more harm than good at this point. And I worry equally about how that might alienate critical talent now and forward.

[Viking Thor]

With Elon there is the hardworking incredible genius and the cringe \ foolish tweets and needless distractions \ foolishness like on\off\on Twitter purchase and Ukraine plan.

I would love to have the hardworking genius without the other stuff but it's a complete package. The genius Elon is exceptional and has probably done more to save the planet from global warming than anyone else ever.

People who are brilliant and exceptional are sometimes crazy in other ways.

Hopefully we get more of the focused hardworking genius and less of the cringe.

[Niceday]

All companies have regular attrition. Top talents come and go. Cross pollination is very common in the tech industry. Tesla and SpaceX remain to be the #1 and #2 destinations for top school graduates.

Tesla has the lion's share of the EV sales. It only makes sense for their market share to come down. However, Tesla's sales volume will continue to grow while its
market share goes down. EV sales from all car manufacturers will be taking shares from internal combustion engine car sales.

Elon Musk is a missionary. You are not going to find an ordinary person who is a missionary running an extraordinary company. See history(Steve Jobs, Bill Gates, etc). Social media certainly amplifies a lot of things.

The stock has always been volatile, and Elon Musk has always been Elon Musk.

Just the sales from Model Y, 3, S, and X alone will make Tesla lots of money for years to come. You can discount the energy products, FSD, the semi, cybertruck, insurance, supercharging, service, etc. All those things will be gravy if/when they become a bigger part of the picture.

The Tesla today is much stronger than the Tesla 5 years ago. Let's imagine 5 years from now, do you think Tesla will be weaker or stronger?

Having said all that, we are in a bear market. Most stocks go down in a bear market.
Interest rates have gone up. People who will need a loan to buy a car may now think twice before buying a car. This will impact sales to some degree. This affects all car manufacturers.
If we get a recession/hard landing, sales will definitely be affected.
When all the chaos stop, will Tesla be able to continue to execute or will Tesla be in a worse shape? I'd like to think it's the former.

[achvfi]

He is just an aggressive business man with very high risk appetite, vision and enough luck on his side. He is not an engineer nor a genius. He has ability to choose right managers and package existing ideas into successful products. His success with Tesla has paid him off well and also set off industry to catch up.

He is also a jerk and not just that. An abuser of employees and women from various reports we have seen. So much more.

I cant give him a pass because he has been a visionary in his field and built some successful businesses.

 

[talltexan]

Is he worse than Jobs? Does Twitter just enable us to see what would have stayed behind closed doors before?

As news about Gates' many affairs--and enabling of Jeffrey Epstein--is slowly reaching the public, I think a lot of us are going to have to be realistic about how our heroes and our values interact.

[ChpBstrd]

There exists a class of billionaires who are above the law - above even the standards of good taste - and we poor or middle class people idolize them for achieving freedom from all accountability and for having the money we genuinely think would make us happy. In our deep subconscious, in the places where we barter with gods, we imagine ourselves as their allies and quislings, and declare them geniuses. Perhaps they'll visit someday, make us their friends, and maybe offer us jobs?

[bacchi]

Tesla has the lion's share of the EV sales.

Not in China, the largest EV market. The top EV was the Wuling Hong Guang MINI EV at 161,579 (through May). Tesla sold 81,125 Model Ys through the same period.*

Tesla is losing the race because it has no model for the much larger, non-rich, demographic.

If Tesla doesn't create a down-market car (even by American/European standards), it might well remain a semi/luxury brand like BMW or Audi. That's a high margin business but it will never achieve the same sales as Honda or Toyota.



* https://insideevs.com/news/594260/china-plugin-car-sales-may-2022/

[soulpatchmike]

Tesla has the lion's share of the EV sales.

Not in China, the largest EV market. The top EV was the Wuling Hong Guang MINI EV at 161,579 (through May). Tesla sold 81,125 Model Ys through the same period.*

Tesla is losing the race because it has no model for the much larger, non-rich, demographic.

If Tesla doesn't create a down-market car (even by American/European standards), it might well remain a semi/luxury brand like BMW or Audi. That's a high margin business but it will never achieve the same sales as Honda or Toyota.



* https://insideevs.com/news/594260/china-plugin-car-sales-may-2022/

Nokia had a 50% market share in 2007 and it got to that market share by selling cheap non-smartphones.  Today, BMW and Audi...errr...I mean, Android and Apple are the std for personal phones in the very large, non-rich, demographic.

Considering the average sale price of a new car in the US today is around $50k, the Tesla is not really luxury priced.  Maybe just a bit above average.  Does anyone remember the Yugo?  Cheap is often found to not be the cheapest option.

[StashingAway]

Considering the average sale price of a new car in the US today is around $50k, the Tesla is not really luxury priced.  Maybe just a bit above average.  Does anyone remember the Yugo?  Cheap is often found to not be the cheapest option.

Urgh. We've been over this in this very thread. Average =/= median. It is deceiving. This is statistics 101. You can sell 9 hamburgers at $10 and one hamburger at $100. The average hamburger in this scenario is $19, despite most people paying $10 per hamburger.

Tesla, by their own admission, are selling premium (not economy) vehicles. See their comparison chart on (page 33) of their impact report. The only references to affordable vehicles are in their long term responsibilities of the board members (page 78)

https://www.tesla.com/impact-report/2020

Now, if you do long term cost of ownership scenarios and have an environmental bone in your body, Tesla are quite appealing. But it is through rose colored glasses that they are selling economy vehicles. It's simply not true. I can get any number of very decent new vehicles for $25K. These are cars built much better than your Yugo straw man, such as a Prius, HR-V, Civic, Soul, Crosstrek, etc.

[Niceday]

Tesla has the lion's share of the EV sales.

Not in China, the largest EV market. The top EV was the Wuling Hong Guang MINI EV

I was talking global market share. Anyway, the point I was trying to make is that declining market share is not as big an issue as some people think.  The EV market will be huge. Every EV sale will be taken from an ICE sale.

I have a lot of respect for Chinese EV makers. Nio, Xpeng, BYD, just to name a few.  They are hard working and most of them have no baggage(legacy ICE business, dealerships, etc). They just need to get to volume production and I have no doubt that they will, especially when some of them have support from the government. I hope one day they'll export to the U.S. because they have some great looking cars at reasonable prices. They'll be a force to be reckoned with.

To the folks who don't like Elon Musk, have you let your dislike color your judgement on the Tesla products and businesses?

[Paper Chaser]

I think from an investment standpoint, the reason that market share might be a concern is that TSLA currently has $700 billion market cap, which is more than the top 10 largest auto makers combined, while moving a very small percentage of units relative to those same companies (their volume is currently ~10% of what Toyota or VW do in a year.) So the stock seems like it's priced as if they'll continue market domination. Erosion of market share seems to fly in the face of that valuation, which could increase downside risk, and reduce upside for a prospective investor. IF you're already holding, then it may be less of a concern, but downside risk is always something to consider.

[JAYSLOL]

Tesla has the lion's share of the EV sales.

Not in China, the largest EV market. The top EV was the Wuling Hong Guang MINI EV at 161,579 (through May). Tesla sold 81,125 Model Ys through the same period.*

Tesla is losing the race because it has no model for the much larger, non-rich, demographic.

If Tesla doesn't create a down-market car (even by American/European standards), it might well remain a semi/luxury brand like BMW or Audi. That's a high margin business but it will never achieve the same sales as Honda or Toyota.



* https://insideevs.com/news/594260/china-plugin-car-sales-may-2022/

Nokia had a 50% market share in 2007 and it got to that market share by selling cheap non-smartphones.  Today, BMW and Audi...errr...I mean, Android and Apple are the std for personal phones in the very large, non-rich, demographic.

Considering the average sale price of a new car in the US today is around $50k, the Tesla is not really luxury priced.  Maybe just a bit above average.  Does anyone remember the Yugo?  Cheap is often found to not be the cheapest option.

Pretty big difference in affordability between poorer people being able to pay monthly for a fancy phone and phone plan, and being able to pay monthly for a new luxury car and all the costs that go with it.  A fancy smart phone is magnitudes of order more useful than an old Nokia brick, whereas a luxury car really doesn’t provide any productive value above a cheaper option, it’s purely extra luxury. 

[StashingAway]

A fancy smart phone is magnitudes of order more useful than an old Nokia brick, whereas a luxury car really doesn’t provide any productive value above a cheaper option, it’s purely extra luxury.

Precisely. Tesla have hopes to provide significantly more value (autopilot), but until the tech actually proves out and the regulations allow it, that value isn't there. And it's questionable about how that tech will play out. It very well could completely change the entire transportation industry (something which the current Tesla valuation seems to take as 100% inevitable). I think the roadblocks to that are bigger than the visionaries suspect, but we need visionaries to push the boundaries so I hold my tongue there. I do question the need for cars as transport as a baseline, but that's not really a Tesla problem. I would hope that they have a mediocre future not because I dislike EVs (I love them), but because I dislike our reliance on cars in general. Relative to other automakers, I think they will be successful.

To the folks who don't like Elon Musk, have you let your dislike color your judgement on the Tesla products and businesses?

Speaking for myself, I don't hold much disdain for the person himself. I do try to account for his personal biases and powerful influence on his companies when predicting the path of the companies. Tesla is it's own company and could run without him, but ultimately he has more influence on them than can be written off.  He has some strong personal beliefs that I don't think hold up to the completely meticulous "first principles" thinking that he touts (such as his disdain for motorcycles, his neutrality on nuclear power as a clean energy source, his seemingly whimsical personal life etc.). He's ultimately just a person... it would be just as questionable if I were in charge of Tesla with my personal biases.

[mistymoney]

A fancy smart phone is magnitudes of order more useful than an old Nokia brick, whereas a luxury car really doesn’t provide any productive value above a cheaper option, it’s purely extra luxury.

Precisely. Tesla have hopes to provide significantly more value (autopilot), but until the tech actually proves out and the regulations allow it, that value isn't there. And it's questionable about how that tech will play out. It very well could completely change the entire transportation industry (something which the current Tesla valuation seems to take as 100% inevitable). I think the roadblocks to that are bigger than the visionaries suspect, but we need visionaries to push the boundaries so I hold my tongue there. I do question the need for cars as transport as a baseline, but that's not really a Tesla problem. I would hope that they have a mediocre future not because I dislike EVs (I love them), but because I dislike our reliance on cars in general. Relative to other automakers, I think they will be successful.

To the folks who don't like Elon Musk, have you let your dislike color your judgement on the Tesla products and businesses?

Speaking for myself, I don't hold much disdain for the person himself. I do try to account for his personal biases and powerful influence on his companies when predicting the path of the companies. Tesla is it's own company and could run without him, but ultimately he has more influence on them than can be written off.  He has some strong personal beliefs that I don't think hold up to the completely meticulous "first principles" thinking that he touts (such as his disdain for motorcycles, his neutrality on nuclear power as a clean energy source, his seemingly whimsical personal life etc.). He's ultimately just a person... it would be just as questionable if I were in charge of Tesla with my personal biases.

this in itself is a rather whimsical post, and thank you for that! Really appreciate this pov. I'm sure there are many CEO who I would think very highly of, if they tweeted out all their seemy thoughts and ideas.....

(autopilot), but until the tech actually proves out and the regulations allow it, that value isn't there. And it's questionable about how that tech will play out.

I think the fact that they saw where the FSD was going and decided to put that to use in a humanoid robot is pretty signficant. I'm a little freaked out about it, tbh, but super excited if a 20k purchase could mean spotless floors, toilets, and countertops every day for the rest of my life. Oh - and can it paint the porch? wash fold and put clothes away?? I'm beyond excited about where it is going, as long as - you know - no skynet.

[mistymoney]

from wikipedia:

Optimus, also known as Tesla Bot, is a conceptual general-purpose robotic humanoid under development by Tesla, Inc.[1] It was announced at the company's Artificial Intelligence (AI) Day event on August 19, 2021.[1] CEO Elon Musk claimed during the event that Tesla would likely build a prototype by 2022.[2] Musk is on record having said that he thinks Optimus "has the potential to be more significant than the vehicle business over time."[3]

So musk seemed to be looking for the robots to initially work on the tesla manufacturing side, not sure how long I will have to wait for my rosie....

[StashingAway]

I think the fact that they saw where the FSD was going and decided to put that to use in a humanoid robot is pretty signficant. I'm a little freaked out about it, tbh, but super excited if a 20k purchase could mean spotless floors, toilets, and countertops every day for the rest of my life. Oh - and can it paint the porch? wash fold and put clothes away?? I'm beyond excited about where it is going, as long as - you know - no skynet.

This reads as satire to me... we aren't even remotely close to having the robot that you speak of... folks have been talking about robotic assistance since the 1950's... yet here we are.

[mistymoney]

I think the fact that they saw where the FSD was going and decided to put that to use in a humanoid robot is pretty signficant. I'm a little freaked out about it, tbh, but super excited if a 20k purchase could mean spotless floors, toilets, and countertops every day for the rest of my life. Oh - and can it paint the porch? wash fold and put clothes away?? I'm beyond excited about where it is going, as long as - you know - no skynet.

This reads as satire to me... we aren't even remotely close to having the robot that you speak of... folks have been talking about robotic assistance since the 1950's... yet here we are.

how would we ever know? ;P

And I wasn't thinking it was going to be out in time for christmas or anything.....

For decades, we moaned about jet packs never becoming a reality and then boom - they happened. Unortunately, my bones are too old to try that out......but i'll always be up for a robot for household tasks.

[StashingAway]

For decades, we moaned about jet packs never becoming a reality and then boom - they happened.

Ok, I'll buy that... but you're basically saying that you don't know when it will happen. Which I agree with. It's easy to look at a Roomba an think that we're 90% there, but what we don't know is how hard that last 10% is (it's certainlly much harder than the first 90%). We didn't have nuclear fission except in principle, then, BAM! we had it. We didn't have nuclear fusion and then... well, it's been 10 years away for the last 70 years... the point is that it's impossible to predict. Valuating Tesla as though autonomic household robots are inevitable in any kind of short term time frame is pie in the sky optimism. Many of us who pay attention to the AI space know that AI can be convincingly further along than it really is. The self driving car seems like it came out of nowhere, but it's really be a long slow trudge to get here, and likely a long slow trudge to go further.

https://www.tomorrowsworldtoday.com/2021/08/09/history-of-autonomous-cars/


BTW, jet packs still aren't a "reality" in that they're not really accessible or practical for anything. And they didn't appear out of nowhere, they had a similar long slow development.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jet_pack

[mistymoney]

For decades, we moaned about jet packs never becoming a reality and then boom - they happened.

Ok, I'll buy that... but you're basically saying that you don't know when it will happen. Which I agree with. It's easy to look at a Roomba an think that we're 90% there, but what we don't know is how hard that last 10% is (it's certainlly much harder than the first 90%). We didn't have nuclear fission except in principle, then, BAM! we had it. We didn't have nuclear fusion and then... well, it's been 10 years away for the last 70 years... the point is that it's impossible to predict. Valuating Tesla as though autonomic household robots are inevitable in any kind of short term time frame is pie in the sky optimism. Many of us who pay attention to the AI space know that AI can be convincingly further along than it really is. The self driving car seems like it came out of nowhere, but it's really be a long slow trudge to get here, and likely a long slow trudge to go further.

https://www.tomorrowsworldtoday.com/2021/08/09/history-of-autonomous-cars/


BTW, jet packs still aren't a "reality" in that they're not really accessible or practical for anything. And they didn't appear out of nowhere, they had a similar long slow development.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jet_pack

Following the Tesla Bot display at the Cyber Rodeo event, scientist Gary Marcus stated he would "bet that no robot will be able to do all human tasks by the end of 2023."[3]

[waltworks]

What about the jet pack guy at the 1984 Los Angeles Olympics opening ceremonies?

That made a big impression on 8 year old me. A quick google search shows that the technology hasn't really gotten a lot better in the last 40 years, though - still terrifyingly dangerous, impractical, and outrageously expensive.

-W

[Viking Thor]

I think from an investment standpoint, the reason that market share might be a concern is that TSLA currently has $700 billion market cap, which is more than the top 10 largest auto makers combined, while moving a very small percentage of units relative to those same companies (their volume is currently ~10% of what Toyota or VW do in a year.) So the stock seems like it's priced as if they'll continue market domination. Erosion of market share seems to fly in the face of that valuation, which could increase downside risk, and reduce upside for a prospective investor. IF you're already holding, then it may be less of a concern, but downside risk is always something to consider.

Doesn't make sense to compare them to legacy auto.

Those companies have an outdated and inefficient businesses model that is saddling them with limited profitability, ie high sales and marketing costs including the dealerships and expensive  ice car infrastructure that doesn't translate \ help with EV production where the entire market is headed over the next 10-15 years.

Tesla could have a huge reduction in EV market share and a high growth rate since EV is a low percentage of vehicles and will eventually be the entire market.

They have a high PE ratio now given the high growth rate are nowhere near priced to perfection, there is speculation\ articles saying they could have a higher market cap than Apple by 2030.

Of course no one knows for sure and its possible something bad could happen to them, but they have been killing it this year with production and sales growth and still the share price is sinking given the negative overall market. We could see a huge spike when the market shifts. I don't think Tesla stock will increase until inflation is under control and fed shifts because right now it drops a lot on any minor bad news and positive developments don't do much of anything.

[mistymoney]

Of course no one knows for sure and its possible something bad could happen to them, but they have been killing it this year with production and sales growth and still the share price is sinking given the negative overall market. We could see a huge spike when the market shifts. I don't think Tesla stock will increase until inflation is under control and fed shifts because right now it drops a lot on any minor bad news and positive developments don't do much of anything.

yep - proof will be in the pudding, one way or another.

[Paper Chaser]

I think from an investment standpoint, the reason that market share might be a concern is that TSLA currently has $700 billion market cap, which is more than the top 10 largest auto makers combined, while moving a very small percentage of units relative to those same companies (their volume is currently ~10% of what Toyota or VW do in a year.) So the stock seems like it's priced as if they'll continue market domination. Erosion of market share seems to fly in the face of that valuation, which could increase downside risk, and reduce upside for a prospective investor. IF you're already holding, then it may be less of a concern, but downside risk is always something to consider.

Doesn't make sense to compare them to legacy auto.

Those companies have an outdated and inefficient businesses model that is saddling them with limited profitability, ie high sales and marketing costs including the dealerships and expensive  ice car infrastructure that doesn't translate \ help with EV production where the entire market is headed over the next 10-15 years.

Tesla could have a huge reduction in EV market share and a high growth rate since EV is a low percentage of vehicles and will eventually be the entire market.

They have a high PE ratio now given the high growth rate are nowhere near priced to perfection, there is speculation\ articles saying they could have a higher market cap than Apple by 2030.

At the end of the day, it comes down to sales volume and profit margins. They may have higher margins than legacy auto makers, but it's not 10 times what the legacy makers are making. They may be able to lose market share and still increase volume in a growing EV market. But competition always brings prices down, and there is more truly competitive competition every day. You've now got both startups and legacy OEMs adding very solid EV options in market segments that Tesla doesn't compete in. They're not the young, nimble, startup that is racing to market anymore.

The legacy companies don't have much in the way of dealer related costs. Dealers are privately owned. They are technically the OEM's closest customers. TSLA owns their brick and mortar locations outright which are costs that the legacy OEMs don't have so it's a bit of a two way street. As Tesla grows, they'll need more and more brick and mortar, filled with more and more inventory, employees, etc. Tesla now isn't the same as it was 5 years ago, and it's overhead will continue to grow as the company does. Just as Tesla has changed in recent years to resemble more of a real OEM, the legacy OEMs have adapted as well and their operations now are not what they were in the past. Historically, the legacy dealers have resulted in customer interaction issues and excess inventory that can be problematic for the legacy OEMs. But the pandemic forced many of them to streamline their sales operation using the internet while production shortages have essentially eliminated the excess inventory problems. The legacy OEMs have learned that they can survive pretty well by focusing on limited production of highly profitable products (which has been Tesla's playbook) but their shares aren't priced like TSLA either.

There is always speculation. I'd argue that TSLA has tons of speculation built into it's current price. Speculation about autopilot, future market domination, growing profit margins, robots, new models that have been "in the pipeline" for many years now and their domination, etc. The current price seems to take that speculation for granted in my opinion. It's clearly been a very profitable investment for tons of people, and the future is untold. Personally, I don't see the potential for massive growth in share price from here

[Viking Thor]

Speculation built into the price and limited upside is an opinion you have that could be right or wrong.

There are analysts that project 12 months price targets around the 350 level just based on continued high increases in revenue and profit from the core car business.

Obviously they could be wrong and they typically have a “bull” case that is higher than this and a “bear” case where the stock declines. But the analysts have crunched numbers that show how stock price could increase ant certain profit growth levels and they are aware of all the market share numbers.

Of course they could be wrong and revenue growth and margins could flatten which would bring the price down

But nothing in the market is actually priced to perfection,at least in terms of what the market overall perceives as the future performance of the company.  If the speculative things succeeding is already assumed the bull case for the stock would be essentially no or little increase since the most optimistic possible performance is already baked into the price.

I bought Tesla a couple of years back so it’s been good so far and I plan to hold it for several more years.

But maybe I am wrong about the potential and should have sold it already and taken the tax hit on profits. We’ll see in a few years.

[Paper Chaser]

I bought Tesla a couple of years back so it’s been good so far and I plan to hold it for several more years.

What would trigger you to sell? Is there a well defined plan for that or just winging it?

The reason I ask is that I see lots of TSLA holders that seem to be emotionally connected to owning that stock rather than rationally investing based on whatever factor they choose. That's a powerful market force, but it's also irrational.

[StashingAway]

There is always speculation. I'd argue that TSLA has tons of speculation built into it's current price. Speculation about autopilot, future market domination, growing profit margins, robots, new models that have been "in the pipeline" for many years now and their domination, etc. The current price seems to take that speculation for granted in my opinion. It's clearly been a very profitable investment for tons of people, and the future is untold. Personally, I don't see the potential for massive growth in share price from here

This is quite a good summary of where I sit. I'll also throw speculation on the ability to scale things like solar and charger networks. I think both of these projects are going to be more difficult to scale than appears to the general investor. Infrastructure is going to limit the ability to grow at the pace they are growing now. There are a lot of expensive grid (and materials) limitations. As the price of solar installs drops (and more solar comes online), I also suspect that the perks for installing will diminish for most grids.

I work in the energy industry field, and it is surprising how many assumptions are built into general planning programs here (cities/municipalities and even states developing net-zero plans but not putting into place nearly enough resources to get there). It's all just built on assumptions that it will happen, but... whew it's gonna be a lot of work and politicians talking doesn't fuel the grid no matter how helpful that would be!