Author Topic: Is it too late [bitcoin]?  (Read 35292 times)

maizeman

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Re: Is it too late [bitcoin]?
« Reply #650 on: January 08, 2018, 08:59:43 PM »
Because it was interesting to think of examples of all four pairwise combinations:

Inherent value, efficient market: US stock market.

No inherent value, efficient market: Euro denominated price for dollars.

Inherent value, non-efficient market: Used textbooks. (Source: https://www.npr.org/sections/money/2014/11/10/363103753/textbook-arbitrage-making-money-off-used-books)

No* inherent value, non-efficient market: diamond engagement rings.

*Well negligible compared to sale prices.

PDXTabs

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Re: Is it too late [bitcoin]?
« Reply #651 on: January 08, 2018, 09:08:52 PM »
Bitcoin doesn't make anything. There are no revenues or assets. It's a piece of code. It's intrinsic value is zero. It has far more in common with tulips than any stock, including USAP.

Windows is just code, does that mean that it has no intrinsic value?*

Do cryptographic primitives have intrinsic value when they are used to secure your credit card number during online transactions? Because cryptographic primates are just code.

* - I'm fine if you say yes, I hate Windows, but a bunch of MSFT shareholders would disagree.

EDIT - I have no idea how to correctly value BTC or ETH, but that doesn't mean that it has no intrinsic value, it just means that I don't know how to measure it.
« Last Edit: January 08, 2018, 09:11:33 PM by PDXTabs »

Indexer

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Re: Is it too late [bitcoin]?
« Reply #652 on: January 09, 2018, 04:30:08 AM »
Bitcoin doesn't make anything. There are no revenues or assets. It's a piece of code. It's intrinsic value is zero. It has far more in common with tulips than any stock, including USAP.

Windows is just code, does that mean that it has no intrinsic value?*

Do cryptographic primitives have intrinsic value when they are used to secure your credit card number during online transactions? Because cryptographic primates are just code.

* - I'm fine if you say yes, I hate Windows, but a bunch of MSFT shareholders would disagree.

EDIT - I have no idea how to correctly value BTC or ETH, but that doesn't mean that it has no intrinsic value, it just means that I don't know how to measure it.

Intrinsic value = what's left over if no one is willing to buy it from you. In the case of Windows the ability to use it would be it's intrinsic value. Stocks have dividends and voting power. Bonds have income. Your home providers shelter. Tulips can be eaten. What is a bitcoin worth if no one wanted to buy it from you? What can you do with it that makes it valuable even if the market decided it wasn't valuable? Zero, right?

Currency exchange rates (which is what bitcoin and other crypocurrencies are trying to be) are subject to the efficient market hypothesis. Modern currencies have no intrinsic value. They provide no direct return.

Do modern currencies have intrinsic value? What is a dollar worth if no one wants to trade it with you? Zero right? Hmm... Dollars are legal tender for all debts, public and private. I have a mortgage and the bank is legally required to accept dollars. For me, dollars have an intrinsic value related to keeping my home. This logic applies to anyone with dollar denominated debt. Yes, that value will be different for each entity, but it creates long lasting demand for dollars.

bitcoin is not just code. 

I didn't say it was just code. I said, "It's a piece of code. It's intrinsic value is zero." The second sentence is the important one.  The fact that people mine it doesn't give it value. It's utility should give it value and that value should justify mining it. Right? How much is it actually being used to buy things? That would be it's utility, correct? Right now it's all speculation, just like the tulips.
« Last Edit: January 09, 2018, 04:34:53 AM by Indexer »

maizeman

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Re: Is it too late [bitcoin]?
« Reply #653 on: January 09, 2018, 06:26:45 AM »
Currency exchange rates (which is what bitcoin and other crypocurrencies are trying to be) are subject to the efficient market hypothesis. Modern currencies have no intrinsic value. They provide no direct return.

Do modern currencies have intrinsic value? What is a dollar worth if no one wants to trade it with you? Zero right? Hmm... Dollars are legal tender for all debts, public and private. I have a mortgage and the bank is legally required to accept dollars. For me, dollars have an intrinsic value related to keeping my home. This logic applies to anyone with dollar denominated debt. Yes, that value will be different for each entity, but it creates long lasting demand for dollars.

What you're describing, the dollar having value specifically because you can use it to pay your mortgage/property tax bill, is a great example of extrinsic value, in that its value is entirely dependent on other people being willing to accept it in return for goods and services (such as accepting it in return for not evicting you from your home). Whether they're now locked into a contract which requires them to continue to accept dollars until the end of a mortgage is essentially just a way of time shifting that willingness to accept dollars from when you signed your mortgage payment to a bunch of time points over the next 15 or 30 years. Note, I'm not disagreeing with the observation that the fact that lots of people has USD denominated mortgages means that there will be demand for USD for some time to come, only that this is not what intrinsic value means.

But if we're talking about the basket of things called "modern currencies" we shouldn't just talk about the dollar. The dollar is one of the most successful, most stable currencies in the world today, and also happens to be the native currency for either a majority or plurality of forum members. Perhaps the most striking example of how the value of modern currencies is extrinsic rather than intrinsic comes from the 2016 demonetization in india, where their prime minister announced that, overnight, all existing 500 and 1,000 rupee notes were no longer legal tender for all debts public and private (link). When that external source of value was removed, the old currency rapidly became worthless.

worldtraveler

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Re: Is it too late [bitcoin]?
« Reply #654 on: January 09, 2018, 06:56:42 AM »
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-01-09/jamie-dimon-i-regret-calling-bitcoin-fraud

Less than four months after Jamie Dimon lashed out at bitcoin, warning that it was would "eventually blow up" because it was "worse than tulip bulbs" and that "any trader trading bitcoin" will be "fired for being stupid", the JPMorgan CEO said he "regrets" his infamous criticism of bitcoin, in which he called the cryptocurrency a "fraud."

In an interview with FOX Business' Maria Bartiromo, Dimon repented, softening the comments he made in a September banking conference, saying "I regret making them."

While Dimon said that he personally is still "not interested in the subject at all" he conceded that blockchain "is real." Dimon also softened his tone on initial coin offerings, saying that ICOs need to be reviewed “individually”.

"The blockchain is real. You can have crypto yen and dollars and stuff like that. ICO's you have to look at individually", Dimon told Bartiromo.

"The bitcoin to me was always what the governments are gonna feel about bitcoin as it gets really big, and I just have a different opinion than other people. I'm not interested that much in the subject at all."

PDXTabs

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Re: Is it too late [bitcoin]?
« Reply #655 on: January 09, 2018, 08:58:39 AM »
Bitcoin doesn't make anything. There are no revenues or assets. It's a piece of code. It's intrinsic value is zero. It has far more in common with tulips than any stock, including USAP.

Windows is just code, does that mean that it has no intrinsic value?*

Do cryptographic primitives have intrinsic value when they are used to secure your credit card number during online transactions? Because cryptographic primates are just code.

* - I'm fine if you say yes, I hate Windows, but a bunch of MSFT shareholders would disagree.

EDIT - I have no idea how to correctly value BTC or ETH, but that doesn't mean that it has no intrinsic value, it just means that I don't know how to measure it.

Intrinsic value = what's left over if no one is willing to buy it from you. In the case of Windows the ability to use it would be it's intrinsic value. Stocks have dividends and voting power. Bonds have income. Your home providers shelter. Tulips can be eaten. What is a bitcoin worth if no one wanted to buy it from you? What can you do with it that makes it valuable even if the market decided it wasn't valuable? Zero, right?

I think that the intrinsic value of a BTC is that it lets you make a cryptographically secure yet public transaction across geographic and political boundaries in the block-chain with a network of thousands of nodes. So yes, if no one else is using it, it has no intrinsic value. But that is also true of say, the internet. What's the intrinsic value of the internet if tomorrow everyone except for you stopped using it? It would cease to exist in the way that we understand it today, and lose all value.

I'm fascinated with this whole train of thought. For example, Linux is free, but it is estimated that it would have taken $19B in 2012 to recreate just one distro. What is the monetary value of Windows if Linux (and FreeBSD, and OpenBSD, etc) are free? Whatever someone will pay for it.

Additionally, I would add that BTC may become the AmigaOS of cryptocurrencies. AmigaOS used to have a lot of value, but as people have transitioned to other (newer, better) hardware and software, its value is almost zero.
« Last Edit: January 09, 2018, 09:03:15 AM by PDXTabs »

brooklynguy

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Re: Is it too late [bitcoin]?
« Reply #656 on: January 09, 2018, 09:59:01 AM »
What you're describing, the dollar having value specifically because you can use it to pay your mortgage/property tax bill, is a great example of extrinsic value, in that its value is entirely dependent on other people being willing to accept it in return for goods and services (such as accepting it in return for not evicting you from your home).

It's worth noting that many items with ostensible intrinsic value are entirely dependent on other people's willingness to recognize human-created fictions.  A share of stock, which you've classified as having intrinsic value (correctly, according to the generally accepted meaning of "intrinsic value" in this context), is, after all, nothing more than fractional ownership of a corporation, which is a legal fiction that does not actually exist.  Its value (and the value of many of the underlying components from which its value derives) is entirely dependent on other people's willingness to recognize and uphold such fictions (unlike some of the other items you cited as having intrinsic value, such as pork bellies and frozen orange juice, which can both be consumed and therefore provide utility in objective reality whether or not anyone else believes in their existence).

Note that I'm not disagreeing with anything you've stated regarding intrinsic/extrinsic value or efficient markets (all of which I do agree with).  I'm just noting that it's possible to drill down even further on the "inherentness" of something's value than what you've described (which aligns with the generally accepted meaning of "intrinsic value" in this context).

You could argue that a pork belly has more inherent value than a share of stock in a corporation that owns nothing but pork bellies, which in turn has more inherent value than a share of stock in a corporation that owns nothing but pork belly futures.

maizeman

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Re: Is it too late [bitcoin]?
« Reply #657 on: January 09, 2018, 10:32:09 AM »
What you're describing, the dollar having value specifically because you can use it to pay your mortgage/property tax bill, is a great example of extrinsic value, in that its value is entirely dependent on other people being willing to accept it in return for goods and services (such as accepting it in return for not evicting you from your home).

It's worth noting that many items with ostensible intrinsic value are entirely dependent on other people's willingness to recognize human-created fictions.  A share of stock, which you've classified as having intrinsic value (correctly, according to the generally accepted meaning of "intrinsic value" in this context), is, after all, nothing more than fractional ownership of a corporation, which is a legal fiction that does not actually exist.  Its value (and the value of many of the underlying components from which its value derives) is entirely dependent on other people's willingness to recognize and uphold such fictions (unlike some of the other items you cited as having intrinsic value, such as pork bellies and frozen orange juice, which can both be consumed and therefore provide utility in objective reality whether or not anyone else believes in their existence).

Note that I'm not disagreeing with anything you've stated regarding intrinsic/extrinsic value or efficient markets (all of which I do agree with).  I'm just noting that it's possible to drill down even further on the "inherentness" of something's value than what you've described (which aligns with the generally accepted meaning of "intrinsic value" in this context).

You could argue that a pork belly has more inherent value than a share of stock in a corporation that owns nothing but pork bellies, which in turn has more inherent value than a share of stock in a corporation that owns nothing but pork belly futures.

That's a very good point that there isn't a bright line between having inherent/intrinsic value and not. While the line I was using between intrinsic/extrinsic value is: "If no one wanted to buy/trade for the item, is there still a benefit to having it" it is important to also think about all the other aspects of "value", like a share of stock representing ownership in a corporation, or the existence of corporations themselves which also exist only because we've all agreed as a society to act like they exist.

That's part of what's been fascinating for me to watch in the discussions about crypocurrency on these different threads. A lot of the terrible qualitative* flaws/weaknesses people bring up with cryptocurrencies also apply to lots of other things we take for granted in the modern world, but it seems like a lot of people are really don't like the idea of how much of our day to day lives are based on useful fictions... on both sides of the debate, since I see both people arguing that bitcoins or ether or whatever have intrinsic value and people arguing that all nationally backed currencies have value, while non-nationally backed currencies do not.

*I want to make sure I acknowledge that are also lots of quantitative flaws in current cryptocurrencies (like volatility, number of places that accept them as payment (small), cost of using them as payment (unworkably expensive at the moment, at least for bitcoin), inflation/deflation trends, etc) that set them apart from most of the other useful fictions we employ in our day to day lives.

ChpBstrd

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Re: Is it too late [bitcoin]?
« Reply #658 on: January 09, 2018, 02:30:41 PM »
Did we just hit peak cryptomania? Wonder how many Kodak insiders will be selling now that the stock doubled?

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/kodak-creating-kodakcoin-own-cryptocurrency-181422100.html

thenextguy

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Re: Is it too late [bitcoin]?
« Reply #659 on: January 09, 2018, 02:40:40 PM »
Did we just hit peak cryptomania? Wonder how many Kodak insiders will be selling now that the stock doubled?

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/kodak-creating-kodakcoin-own-cryptocurrency-181422100.html

I would be interested in hearing from those who say stock markets are efficient.

Optimiser

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Re: Is it too late [bitcoin]?
« Reply #660 on: January 09, 2018, 03:27:50 PM »
Did we just hit peak cryptomania? Wonder how many Kodak insiders will be selling now that the stock doubled?

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/kodak-creating-kodakcoin-own-cryptocurrency-181422100.html

http://www.zdnet.com/article/kodak-announces-the-kodakcoin-blockchain-cryptocurrency/

I have no idea how this will affect Kodak's profitability, but it is an interesting use of blockchain technology.

JAYSLOL

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Re: Is it too late [bitcoin]?
« Reply #661 on: January 09, 2018, 03:34:34 PM »
Bitcoin doesn't make anything. There are no revenues or assets. It's a piece of code. It's intrinsic value is zero. It has far more in common with tulips than any stock, including USAP.

Windows is just code, does that mean that it has no intrinsic value?*

Do cryptographic primitives have intrinsic value when they are used to secure your credit card number during online transactions? Because cryptographic primates are just code.

* - I'm fine if you say yes, I hate Windows, but a bunch of MSFT shareholders would disagree.

EDIT - I have no idea how to correctly value BTC or ETH, but that doesn't mean that it has no intrinsic value, it just means that I don't know how to measure it.

Windows is not open-source.  It is a copyrighted piece of software that can produce an income if used for certain functions.  What can you do with a bitcoin other than trade or spend it?  I don't own blockchain tech by buying a bitcoin, what can I do with a bitcoin that creates anything or performs a function worth anything? 

PDXTabs

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Re: Is it too late [bitcoin]?
« Reply #662 on: January 09, 2018, 04:30:32 PM »
Bitcoin doesn't make anything. There are no revenues or assets. It's a piece of code. It's intrinsic value is zero. It has far more in common with tulips than any stock, including USAP.

Windows is just code, does that mean that it has no intrinsic value?*

Do cryptographic primitives have intrinsic value when they are used to secure your credit card number during online transactions? Because cryptographic primates are just code.

* - I'm fine if you say yes, I hate Windows, but a bunch of MSFT shareholders would disagree.

EDIT - I have no idea how to correctly value BTC or ETH, but that doesn't mean that it has no intrinsic value, it just means that I don't know how to measure it.

Windows is not open-source.  It is a copyrighted piece of software that can produce an income if used for certain functions.  What can you do with a bitcoin other than trade or spend it?  I don't own blockchain tech by buying a bitcoin, what can I do with a bitcoin that creates anything or performs a function worth anything?

Well, you can "produce an income if used for certain functions," for example, trade. Saying that the bitcoin network has no intrinsic value is like saying that PayPal or VISA have no intrinsic value.*

* - note: I purchased exactly 1.0 BTC in order to facilitate online commerce from the UK and Australia with businesses that either offered large discounts for orders in BTC or refused to take anything except BTC.

JAYSLOL

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Re: Is it too late [bitcoin]?
« Reply #663 on: January 09, 2018, 07:02:55 PM »
Bitcoin doesn't make anything. There are no revenues or assets. It's a piece of code. It's intrinsic value is zero. It has far more in common with tulips than any stock, including USAP.

Windows is just code, does that mean that it has no intrinsic value?*

Do cryptographic primitives have intrinsic value when they are used to secure your credit card number during online transactions? Because cryptographic primates are just code.

* - I'm fine if you say yes, I hate Windows, but a bunch of MSFT shareholders would disagree.

EDIT - I have no idea how to correctly value BTC or ETH, but that doesn't mean that it has no intrinsic value, it just means that I don't know how to measure it.

Windows is not open-source.  It is a copyrighted piece of software that can produce an income if used for certain functions.  What can you do with a bitcoin other than trade or spend it?  I don't own blockchain tech by buying a bitcoin, what can I do with a bitcoin that creates anything or performs a function worth anything?

Well, you can "produce an income if used for certain functions," for example, trade. Saying that the bitcoin network has no intrinsic value is like saying that PayPal or VISA have no intrinsic value.*

* - note: I purchased exactly 1.0 BTC in order to facilitate online commerce from the UK and Australia with businesses that either offered large discounts for orders in BTC or refused to take anything except BTC.

I'm saying other than trade, Bitcoin and the Blockchain can't be used to produce anything.  Obviously anyone can buy and sell literally anything, tangible or intangible, physical or virtual and "make money" as long as you sell it at a higher price, as MMM highlighted by offering his fingernail clippings at bargain prices.  We could even buy and sell digital fingernail futures and "make money".  But if i buy Windows, I can make a profit using it (to do correspondence, build a website, write an app, create graphic art, produce advertising, or even mine bitcoin) without selling it.  I don't use up my Windows in the process of making a profit, so its not comparable to an open source piece of software that facilitates trade in a currency. 

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: Is it too late [bitcoin]?
« Reply #664 on: January 09, 2018, 07:48:41 PM »
Kodak is going to make bitcoin miners and create it's own alt coin.  Kodak has nothing to do with Bitcoin, and it's stock soared.  I'd say it's too late for Bitcoin.
http://www.bbc.com/news/technology-42630136

L.A.S.

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Re: Is it too late [bitcoin]?
« Reply #665 on: January 09, 2018, 08:47:49 PM »
Bitcoin doesn't make anything. There are no revenues or assets. It's a piece of code. It's intrinsic value is zero. It has far more in common with tulips than any stock, including USAP.

Windows is just code, does that mean that it has no intrinsic value?*

Do cryptographic primitives have intrinsic value when they are used to secure your credit card number during online transactions? Because cryptographic primates are just code.

* - I'm fine if you say yes, I hate Windows, but a bunch of MSFT shareholders would disagree.

EDIT - I have no idea how to correctly value BTC or ETH, but that doesn't mean that it has no intrinsic value, it just means that I don't know how to measure it.

Windows is not open-source.  It is a copyrighted piece of software that can produce an income if used for certain functions.  What can you do with a bitcoin other than trade or spend it?  I don't own blockchain tech by buying a bitcoin, what can I do with a bitcoin that creates anything or performs a function worth anything?

Well, you can "produce an income if used for certain functions," for example, trade. Saying that the bitcoin network has no intrinsic value is like saying that PayPal or VISA have no intrinsic value.*

* - note: I purchased exactly 1.0 BTC in order to facilitate online commerce from the UK and Australia with businesses that either offered large discounts for orders in BTC or refused to take anything except BTC.

Visa and Paypal do more than just transfer value from buyer to seller.  They can reverse the payment, too.

What is your recourse if merchants in UK and Australia don't deliver as promised?

Sorta makes you wonder why the foreign merchants offered such large discounts for BTC or refused to except anything else...

maizeman

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Re: Is it too late [bitcoin]?
« Reply #666 on: January 09, 2018, 09:12:19 PM »
Visa and Paypal do more than just transfer value from buyer to seller.  They can reverse the payment, too. ...

Sorta makes you wonder why the foreign merchants offered such large discounts for BTC or refused to except anything else...

I mean based solely on the information in your post, I'm going to go out on a limb and guess: Because it cut down on their losses from chargeback fraud?

If we go outside of information in your post, I'd guess the actual reason is that dealing with US credit cards can be a pain for small companies in other countries and because of horror stories about what can go wrong with paypal merchant accounts, particularly if you have a sudden uptick in business, which tend to scare off people who are just starting out in new business ventures.

https://www.reddit.com/r/paypal/comments/6lhxme/what_happens_when_you_pay_paypal_15k_in_fees/

PDXTabs

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Re: Is it too late [bitcoin]?
« Reply #667 on: January 09, 2018, 09:32:42 PM »
Visa and Paypal do more than just transfer value from buyer to seller.  They can reverse the payment, too.

What is your recourse if merchants in UK and Australia don't deliver as promised?

Sorta makes you wonder why the foreign merchants offered such large discounts for BTC or refused to except anything else...

Very true. I'll give you a hint: there are products (including some microscopic organisms such as Necator Americanus) that are legal in most countries but are a violation of the terms of service of PayPal and/or VISA. If you deal in these legal products, how are you supposed to take payments from foreign soil? Have you ever dealt with cross border checks?

Also, there are web hosting companies that are willing to accept cryptocurrency for payment. Imagine if you are a political dissident in a hostile country that can now pay for overseas hosting (and VPN services) with an anonymous cryptocurrency like Monero. In fact, here is the list of providers that accept Monero.

« Last Edit: January 10, 2018, 09:52:31 AM by PDXTabs »

mubington

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Re: Is it too late [bitcoin]?
« Reply #668 on: January 10, 2018, 09:31:40 AM »
Visa and Paypal do more than just transfer value from buyer to seller.  They can reverse the payment, too.

What is your recourse if merchants in UK and Australia don't deliver as promised?

Sorta makes you wonder why the foreign merchants offered such large discounts for BTC or refused to except anything else...

Very true. I'll give you a hint: there are products (including some microscopic organisms such as Necator Americanus) that are legal in most countries but are a violation of the terms of service of PayPal and/or VISA. If you deal in these legal products, how are you supposed to take payments from foreign soil? Have you ever dealt with cross border checks?

Also, there are web hosting companies that are willing to accept cryptocurrency for payment. Imagine if you are a political dissident in a hostile country that can now pay for overseas hosting (and VPN services) with an anonymous cryptocurrency like Monero. In fact, here are the list of providers that accept Monero.

This is all very true, but the problem is, such use cases are such a microscopically, small percentage of global trade. So sure lots of people will find this useful, but if even part of your coin valuation is based on BTC putting a dent in global trade in the medium term, than I'd be personally cautious of this. Even if the whole of africa based their entire GDP on crypto, that would be barely 1%. Countries such as USA and China have valuable economies and it will be relatively hard to (legally) play in those economies if you don't play along with their currency and tax preferences.
« Last Edit: January 10, 2018, 09:33:21 AM by mubington »

Scandium

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Re: Is it too late [bitcoin]?
« Reply #669 on: January 10, 2018, 10:05:51 AM »
Visa and Paypal do more than just transfer value from buyer to seller.  They can reverse the payment, too.

What is your recourse if merchants in UK and Australia don't deliver as promised?

Sorta makes you wonder why the foreign merchants offered such large discounts for BTC or refused to except anything else...

Very true. I'll give you a hint: there are products (including some microscopic organisms such as Necator Americanus) that are legal in most countries but are a violation of the terms of service of PayPal and/or VISA. If you deal in these legal products, how are you supposed to take payments from foreign soil? Have you ever dealt with cross border checks?

Also, there are web hosting companies that are willing to accept cryptocurrency for payment. Imagine if you are a political dissident in a hostile country that can now pay for overseas hosting (and VPN services) with an anonymous cryptocurrency like Monero. In fact, here are the list of providers that accept Monero.

This is all very true, but the problem is, such use cases are such a microscopically, small percentage of global trade. So sure lots of people will find this useful, but if even part of your coin valuation is based on BTC putting a dent in global trade in the medium term, than I'd be personally cautious of this. Even if the whole of africa based their entire GDP on crypto, that would be barely 1%. Countries such as USA and China have valuable economies and it will be relatively hard to (legally) play in those economies if you don't play along with their currency and tax preferences.

I love the increasingly obscure justifications why BTC et al is useful. But no good explanation why it useful to the rest of us 99.99% of people. We who don't run VPN services in oppressive regimes I mean...

Even if BTC was used by 100% off dissident bloggers in every regime in the world, and everyone sending money to countries where bank/paypal transfer is unavailable, how much of global trade is that?? 0.0001%?

PDXTabs

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Re: Is it too late [bitcoin]?
« Reply #670 on: January 10, 2018, 10:22:57 AM »
I love the increasingly obscure justifications why BTC et al is useful. But no good explanation why it useful to the rest of us 99.99% of people. We who don't run VPN services in oppressive regimes I mean...

Even if BTC was used by 100% off dissident bloggers in every regime in the world, and everyone sending money to countries where bank/paypal transfer is unavailable, how much of global trade is that?? 0.0001%?

Again, I'm not investing in BTC, but all of these arguments remind me of the 1990s when everyone thought that open source software could never work. Just because we lack the imagination to see the success of cryptocurrency doesn't mean that it won't be successful. Satoshi Nakamoto didn't invent BTC to get rich, Nakamoto invented BTC to solve a problem in global finance during the biggest financial calamity in 78 year. Similarly Bell Labs, AT&T, and Berkeley didn't invent Unix to get rich, but its descendants (OS X, Darwin, Linux, Android, FreeBSD, etc) run on a ton of IoT, phone, and server platforms. No one could see how Unix was going to stick around for the long haul, no one could describe the path that it would take, and yet it is still with us. That's my prediction for cryptocurrency, not that I can pick the winners and losers, not that I can tell you what will happen, but that much like C or Unix, 47 years from initial conception it will be doing just fine.

Scandium

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Re: Is it too late [bitcoin]?
« Reply #671 on: January 10, 2018, 10:29:04 AM »
I love the increasingly obscure justifications why BTC et al is useful. But no good explanation why it useful to the rest of us 99.99% of people. We who don't run VPN services in oppressive regimes I mean...

Even if BTC was used by 100% off dissident bloggers in every regime in the world, and everyone sending money to countries where bank/paypal transfer is unavailable, how much of global trade is that?? 0.0001%?

Again, I'm not investing in BTC, but all of these arguments remind me of the 1990s when everyone thought that open source software could never work. Just because we lack the imagination to see the success of cryptocurrency doesn't mean that it won't be successful. Satoshi Nakamoto didn't invent BTC to get rich, Nakamoto invented BTC to solve a problem in global finance during the biggest financial calamity in 78 year. Similarly Bell Labs, AT&T, and Berkeley didn't invent Unix to get rich, but its descendants (OS X, Darwin, Linux, Android, FreeBSD, etc) run on a ton of IoT, phone, and server platforms. No one could see how Unix was going to stick around for the long haul, no one could describe the path that it would take, and yet it is still with us. That's my prediction for cryptocurrency, not that I can pick the winners and losers, not that I can tell you what will happen, but that much like C or Unix, 47 years from initial conception it will be doing just fine.


Again, that's the blockchain technology, which yes might have some use. But BTC is almost irrelevant to that. (ironically) financial firms are experimenting with it for their use. But why should the specific one-of-many crytocoin BTC be worth $20k? If Visa, or whatever else, is replaced with a blockchain tech it's almost certain it won't be BTC, or ETH, or dogecoin.. So what is the reason people are willing to pay $1k-20k for each one of those?

PDXTabs

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Re: Is it too late [bitcoin]?
« Reply #672 on: January 10, 2018, 10:37:31 AM »
Again, that's the blockchain technology, which yes might have some use. But BTC is almost irrelevant to that. (ironically) financial firms are experimenting with it for their use. But why should the specific one-of-many crytocoin BTC be worth $20k? If Visa, or whatever else, is replaced with a blockchain tech it's almost certain it won't be BTC, or ETH, or dogecoin.. So what is the reason people are willing to pay $1k-20k for each one of those?

I can't really answer that question, because I am unwilling to pay $20K for a BTC except as a means to buy goods.

With that said, I would say that in the software world it is normal to pick something that works, and iterate later. That's how programming languages and frameworks often work:

sh&sed&awk --> perl --> python2 --> python3
Netscape JavaScript --> es3 --> es5 --> es6 (and separately TypeScript) --> es7

I'm sure that you could draw a similar timeline for all the JavaScript frameworks that the world has seen (note: a lot of them are now dead).

But if you need to ship a product that works soon, you pick a technology that works today. BTC "works" today.

maizeman

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Re: Is it too late [bitcoin]?
« Reply #673 on: January 10, 2018, 11:34:37 AM »
Again, that's the blockchain technology, which yes might have some use. But BTC is almost irrelevant to that. (ironically) financial firms are experimenting with it for their use. But why should the specific one-of-many crytocoin BTC be worth $20k? If Visa, or whatever else, is replaced with a blockchain tech it's almost certain it won't be BTC, or ETH, or dogecoin.. So what is the reason people are willing to pay $1k-20k for each one of those?

Perhaps you should first find someone who is actually paying $20k (or even the current price of $14,600) for bitcoin that they are not immediately going to spend?

If you cannot find such a person, it may not be worth getting worked up arguing about how it doesn't make sense to buy bitcoins (specifically) at current price, since, at least in this thread, I don't think anyone is currently buying bitcoins or suggesting that others should.

Scandium

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Re: Is it too late [bitcoin]?
« Reply #674 on: January 10, 2018, 12:01:31 PM »
Again, that's the blockchain technology, which yes might have some use. But BTC is almost irrelevant to that. (ironically) financial firms are experimenting with it for their use. But why should the specific one-of-many crytocoin BTC be worth $20k? If Visa, or whatever else, is replaced with a blockchain tech it's almost certain it won't be BTC, or ETH, or dogecoin.. So what is the reason people are willing to pay $1k-20k for each one of those?

Perhaps you should first find someone who is actually paying $20k (or even the current price of $14,600) for bitcoin that they are not immediately going to spend?

If you cannot find such a person, it may not be worth getting worked up arguing about how it doesn't make sense to buy bitcoins (specifically) at current price, since, at least in this thread, I don't think anyone is currently buying bitcoins or suggesting that others should.

well some is buying them for $14k. But I'm equally curious why anyone would pay $2k for them..

brooklynguy

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Re: Is it too late [bitcoin]?
« Reply #675 on: January 10, 2018, 12:06:04 PM »
well some is buying them for $14k. But I'm equally curious why anyone would pay $2k for them..

The probable answer in the case of most buyers is that they are (wittingly or unwittingly) hoping for a greater fool to come along who is willing to pay even more.

Ben Hogan

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Re: Is it too late [bitcoin]?
« Reply #676 on: January 10, 2018, 12:25:55 PM »
BTC should go much lower this week. I would wait, and also buy another coin to balance the investment. I'd go with NEO or XMR.

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Re: Is it too late [bitcoin]?
« Reply #677 on: January 10, 2018, 04:13:00 PM »
I love the increasingly obscure justifications why BTC et al is useful. But no good explanation why it useful to the rest of us 99.99% of people.

You know that huge fee you pay when you buy a house... I think they call it escrow... Something like ETH can change that expense from 100's (or thousands) of dollars down to pennies. This is just one use case, and there are many like this.

What about the massive fee's charged to move money between countries? I work with a lot of foreigners that send a lot of money home, they are saving a ton of money not paying those fees.

Have you tried to move large sums of money around in our banking system? Just the other day I deposited my normal paycheck for a side hustle and the bank said they had to put a 10 day hold on it before it clears because it's a large amount. I do not have this problem with crytpo to crypto exchanges, there is no banks forcing me to wait.

There has never been before a way to share a piece of data that can be only in one place at a time. In time you will be able to secure your private data and other communication so companies cannot share it like equifax just did. Even if you do not know it yet, you will be using this technology all the time in your daily life.
« Last Edit: January 10, 2018, 04:22:34 PM by effigy98 »

waltworks

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Re: Is it too late [bitcoin]?
« Reply #678 on: January 10, 2018, 04:24:59 PM »
You know that huge fee you pay when you buy a house... I think they call it escrow... Something like ETH can change that expense from 100's (or thousands) of dollars down to pennies. This is just one use case, and there are many like this.

Uh, what? I could see a future where a crypo-contract of some kind functions as the escrow entity (maybe), but fat chance of being able to actually buy a house using BTC right now.

If you haven't bought/sold real estate lately, your big expenses are commissions, title insurance/fees, and (potentially) taxes. None of those is something that a cryptocurrency would really help with.

As of right now, it's a lot MORE hassle and expense to use BTC (and for a large transaction, it would be an insane risk for both parties) than traditional transactions. If BTC is stable over a period of, say, decades, then you might see people start to use it for actual commerce. But it seems purposely designed to prevent that outcome...

-W

effigy98

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Re: Is it too late [bitcoin]?
« Reply #679 on: January 10, 2018, 04:32:12 PM »
If you haven't bought/sold real estate lately, your big expenses are commissions, title insurance/fees, and (potentially) taxes. None of those is something that a cryptocurrency would really help with.

My last 3 properties were all over $1000 in escrow. That is still a very significant chunk of money a smart contract could facilitate automation. Let's just say the average US home price is around 200k, that is still $200 in escrow. Multiple that by homes sold a year and that is still a BILLION dollars. That is a very valuable network. This is just a single use case, there are many other potential markets.

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Re: Is it too late [bitcoin]?
« Reply #680 on: January 10, 2018, 04:46:14 PM »
There are countless comparable examples.  Linux saves billions of dollars a year vs Windows. But it's peanuts really in the big scheme of things.

The whole crypo narrative and valuation is built on BTC putting a meaninful dent in fiat. Not just dancing around the edges.

The reason Warren Buffet opted out of tech wasn't because he was certain it would fail.... he didn't invest because he didn't know enough to understand WHICH tech firms would fail. He has said on record he is quite certain BTC will fail.

What makes BTC investors think they have such an edge to think 15k is undervalued?

The problem as I see it is there will be a whole lot of pain caused before any future benefits. It's hard to imagine any alternative history where the internet crash or the property crash was circumvented. The idea that Crypto is going to have a soft correction without hurting millions, is unlikely.
« Last Edit: January 10, 2018, 04:58:58 PM by mubington »

shadow

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Re: Is it too late [bitcoin]?
« Reply #681 on: January 10, 2018, 05:20:11 PM »

well some is buying them for $14k. But I'm equally curious why anyone would pay $2k for them..

Alot of people that buy into bitcoin or any crypto don't really understand the tech behind it. Perhaps they're mistaken in how they evaluate its value, believing it's scarce currency, believing it will somehow find mainstream use. Whatever the reason, they believe there is some value that will drive demand. Someone will buy it from them at a higher price than they bought it. Or maybe alot of them understand there is no value and shill and hype it for the less sophisticated speculator to dump into.

There are undeniably elements of the greater fool.

There are other people that have researched blockchain and come to believe in the future of the tech. What they are trying to do is speculate on which will be a future microsoft, google, or amazon or something bigger. These speculators are willing to risk some funds, hopefully only a moderate amount. They are looking more at actual cryptocurrencies and less at company-base blockchains.

The distinction between crypto-base blockchains and company blockchains is that the former is a public, permissionless peer-to-peer decentralized blockchain compared to a private, permissioned non-peer-to-peer network. Blockchain is basically the original definition of crypto, however it has now been adopted to mean other things. In a company blockchain, crypto is not required.

Permissionless blockchain functions like a dumb pipe. It is transaction agnostic, and the rules of its use and access is left for the jurisdiction it passes through. For example, in the U.S., Coinbase has strict know-your-customer laws and forbid certain types of transactions on addresses it hosts. However, it doesn't control the rest of the crypto networks in which it transacts; these networks are extremely resilient to being shutdown, offer greater flexibility of use-cases, superior accessibility and potentially lower transaction cost vs a centralized, permissioned blockchain. A permissioned network can be corrupted or censored; crypto much more resistant to these effects.

In a public, permissionless peer-to-peer decentralized blockchain, there is an economic consensus model with cost and incentives. Satoshi Nakamoto conceptualized this in his whitepaper and the creation of bitcoin. All digital currencies before were attacked or corrupted in some way until they failed. What was needed a decentralized system that would have costs to attackers and rewards to miners.

Double-spend was one of the problems: no one should be able to send more than what they have. How do get you participants that don't know or trust each other to agree on one transaction from others and build upon these transactions? You don't want to assume altruism. You want there to be costs to attack and incentives to agree. And you want the costs to be prohibitive and the incentives to be rewarding.

In proof-of-work mining, miners perform hashing until they discovered a random nonce that allows them to confirm and validate a transaction. They invested in mining equipment, electricity, time and effort to solve this algorithm. For this they get rewarded coins, which does not get paid out until many blocks later. All miners must help confirm successive blocks to get the coins.

In some of the newer crypto, a proof-of-stake economic consensus model built upon proof-of-work mining, but without the need for powerful mining equipment. All the transactions in the network charge require fees for the security of the network, which uses a system of validators. You own the crypto, you can use it and stake it. If you try to attack and fail, you lose that stake. If you help agree and confirm transactions, you are rewarded with network fees. There have been extensive research, testing, and development done on proof-of-stake.

This is the type of crypto that people are speculating on. These crypto have a fundamental design to be platforms of the future, with immense scalability, that anyone can build their own decentralized apps upon. All transactions will have costs, which are paid by senders, and which is rewarded to stakers. If there is mainstream adoption and use, the fees can potentially be very rewarding. There are some numbers and calculations out there already; at this point though, much of it is highly speculative, and this is what certain speculators are betting on. The expectation is massive infrastructure built upon these platforms, with one of the first use-cases being closed payment works being able to interchange with each other on a dumb network, where no vendor has disparate home field advantage. 

There are other tech out there that offer a no-fee, no mining network, such as dag structures, some of which use proof-of-work. Other networks use a fee-burning system. However, at this point, it is inconclusive how secure these networks are. It's not clear if the value of a coin is enough to incentivize running a node. It's also not clear what the costs are to endless attacks. There is some contention these models don't work for a decentralized peer-to-peer compared to proof-of-work and proof-of-stake.
« Last Edit: January 10, 2018, 05:47:25 PM by shadow »

waltworks

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Re: Is it too late [bitcoin]?
« Reply #682 on: January 10, 2018, 07:27:25 PM »
Let's just say the average US home price is around 200k, that is still $200 in escrow. Multiple that by homes sold a year and that is still a BILLION dollars. That is a very valuable network. This is just a single use case, there are many other potential markets.

Yes, and that's indeed what I said - it's a TINY part of your overall transaction costs. No way in hell would I try to save 1/10 of 1% on buying a house while simultaneously risking paying plus/minus 20% for it when I go to close!

There's way more potential for killing off Visa and the other payment processing vampires. But again, BTC seems deliberately designed to be useless for that purpose. Eventually someone will get it right but my bet is on the banks (or a big tech company) doing their own crypto thing that wins the day.

-W

maizeman

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Re: Is it too late [bitcoin]?
« Reply #683 on: January 10, 2018, 07:37:57 PM »
There's way more potential for killing off Visa and the other payment processing vampires. But again, BTC seems deliberately designed to be useless for that purpose. Eventually someone will get it right but my bet is on the banks (or a big tech company) doing their own crypto thing that wins the day.

I tend to be less optimistic about bank-based crypto. By definition, the switch to cryptocurrencies to transmit money overseas or replace credit cards are going to cannibalize a lot of sources of fees which currently are major profit centers for existing retail banks.

You've heard the story about how Kodak invented digital cameras in 1975? They didn't do anything with the technology, because they didn't want to cut into the current market for film and photography reagents. By the time they finally did make the jump to digital in the 1990s they were dreadfully behind their competition, and ended up going bankrupt in 2012.

(The Kodak that just managed to spike it's price with random blockchain buzzwords is what was left over after almost all the assets of value were sold off in Chapter 11, and now sells smartphones and tablets using the kodak brandname).
« Last Edit: January 10, 2018, 08:22:16 PM by maizeman »

MrThatsDifferent

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Re: Is it too late [bitcoin]?
« Reply #684 on: January 10, 2018, 07:47:35 PM »

runbikerun

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Re: Is it too late [bitcoin]?
« Reply #685 on: January 11, 2018, 12:31:57 AM »
There's way more potential for killing off Visa and the other payment processing vampires. But again, BTC seems deliberately designed to be useless for that purpose. Eventually someone will get it right but my bet is on the banks (or a big tech company) doing their own crypto thing that wins the day.

I tend to be less optimistic about bank-based crypto. By definition, the switch to cryptocurrencies to transmit money overseas or replace credit cards are going to cannibalize a lot of sources of fees which currently are major profit centers for existing retail banks.

You've heard the story about how Kodak invented digital cameras in 1975? They didn't do anything with the technology, because they didn't want to cut into the current market for film and photography reagents. By the time they finally did make the jump to digital in the 1990s they were dreadfully behind their competition, and ended up going bankrupt in 2012.

(The Kodak that just managed to spike it's price with random blockchain buzzwords is what was left over after almost all the assets of value were sold off in Chapter 11, and now sells smartphones and tablets using the kodak brandname).

Do you have any clear data on on what percentage of retail banking income is comprised of FX fees and credit card non-interest charges? Non-interest income in banks comprises an extremely broad range of options (such as investment charges, for one), and the fees you're describing could actually be a very small part of the total.

It should also be noted that in retail banking, there's a clear correlation between non-interest income and stability: retail banks with substantial non-interest income streams are more resilient to economic shocks.

KTG

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Re: Is it too late [bitcoin]?
« Reply #686 on: January 11, 2018, 05:22:16 AM »
Over $100 billion wiped off global cryptocurrency market following talk of South Korea trading ban https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/11/bitcoin-ripple-ethereum-prices-fall-after-south-korea-trading-ban-talk.html

Uh-oh.
« Last Edit: January 11, 2018, 05:24:01 AM by KTG »

lifeanon269

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Re: Is it too late [bitcoin]?
« Reply #687 on: January 11, 2018, 05:40:59 AM »

Gondolin

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Re: Is it too late [bitcoin]?
« Reply #688 on: January 11, 2018, 05:46:51 AM »
Quote
The whole crypo narrative and valuation is built on BTC putting a meaninful dent in fiat.

This is the crux of the issue for me. How is the creation of a non-government backed currency not a fundamental attack on the very definition of a nation state? Governments have been trying to regulate the economy and tax transaction since the first coins were minted. Is there any chance that the powerful governments of the world just shrug their shoulders at the loss of such a core part of their sovereignty?

Currently the technology is ahead of the law but, as soon as the wished-for adoption of any crypto starts to happen, that crypto will be globally criminalized in an instant.
"There cannot be two skies"

Cycling Stache

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Re: Is it too late [bitcoin]?
« Reply #689 on: January 11, 2018, 06:47:27 AM »
well some is buying them for $14k. But I'm equally curious why anyone would pay $2k for them..

The probable answer in the case of most buyers is that they are (wittingly or unwittingly) hoping for a greater fool to come along who is willing to pay even more.

How do you know this? 

Cycling Stache

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Re: Is it too late [bitcoin]?
« Reply #690 on: January 11, 2018, 06:48:38 AM »

well some is buying them for $14k. But I'm equally curious why anyone would pay $2k for them..

Alot of people that buy into bitcoin or any crypto don't really understand the tech behind it. Perhaps they're mistaken in how they evaluate its value, believing it's scarce currency, believing it will somehow find mainstream use. Whatever the reason, they believe there is some value that will drive demand. Someone will buy it from them at a higher price than they bought it. Or maybe alot of them understand there is no value and shill and hype it for the less sophisticated speculator to dump into.

There are undeniably elements of the greater fool.

How do you know this?

runbikerun

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Re: Is it too late [bitcoin]?
« Reply #691 on: January 11, 2018, 06:53:10 AM »
well some is buying them for $14k. But I'm equally curious why anyone would pay $2k for them..

The probable answer in the case of most buyers is that they are (wittingly or unwittingly) hoping for a greater fool to come along who is willing to pay even more.

How do you know this?

If you have a better explanation for how Bitcoin was worth about three thousand dollars in October, nineteen thousand dollars in mid-December, and thirteen thousand dollars today, I'm all ears. Bitcoin's price moves don't make any sense whatsoever unless you assume they're driven by speculation.

maizeman

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Re: Is it too late [bitcoin]?
« Reply #692 on: January 11, 2018, 07:12:20 AM »
Quote
The whole crypo narrative and valuation is built on BTC putting a meaninful dent in fiat.

This is the crux of the issue for me. How is the creation of a non-government backed currency not a fundamental attack on the very definition of a nation state? Governments have been trying to regulate the economy and tax transaction since the first coins were minted. Is there any chance that the powerful governments of the world just shrug their shoulders at the loss of such a core part of their sovereignty?

Currently the technology is ahead of the law but, as soon as the wished-for adoption of any crypto starts to happen, that crypto will be globally criminalized in an instant.

Yes I can see how governments might decide to go after cryptocurrencies because they make it easier to do things like circumvent currency controls or anti-money laundering regulations.

I don't see how a currency not issued by a particular government is an attack on a nation's sovereignty.

Clearly a currency issued by nation B isn't an attack on nation A's sovereignty, right? What about the thousands of currencies in the world today issued by non-governmental organizations. Are these an attack on the sovereignty of individual nations? For an example from the ridiculous end of the spectrum, what about Ithaca Hours?

In before the 1860s, banks and private businesses all over the US used to issue their own currencies, which were only backed by the assets of that company. While a piece of paper might say "one dollar" its actual value would fluctuate based on how far away you were from a branch of the issuing bank/corporation which might redeem it, as well as rumors about how well or poorly the issuing company was doing financially (podcast on the subject). Obviously, logistically we're way off with a single unified currency where I can withdraw dollars in San Francisco and spend them in Kalamazoo without having to worry about exchange rates. However, I don't think the United States was any less sovereign in the 1850s than today.


Scandium

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Re: Is it too late [bitcoin]?
« Reply #693 on: January 11, 2018, 07:38:53 AM »
However, I don't think the United States was any less sovereign in the 1850s than today.

In terms of control of the economy, it most certainly was!

shadow

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Re: Is it too late [bitcoin]?
« Reply #694 on: January 11, 2018, 08:41:10 AM »

well some is buying them for $14k. But I'm equally curious why anyone would pay $2k for them..

Alot of people that buy into bitcoin or any crypto don't really understand the tech behind it. Perhaps they're mistaken in how they evaluate its value, believing it's scarce currency, believing it will somehow find mainstream use. Whatever the reason, they believe there is some value that will drive demand. Someone will buy it from them at a higher price than they bought it. Or maybe alot of them understand there is no value and shill and hype it for the less sophisticated speculator to dump into.

There are undeniably elements of the greater fool.

How do you know this?

Empirically seeing alot of forum comments, outside of mmm forums. Noncyber discussions with others where they believe bitcoin has a very high probability of being a global currency for the masses (this belief was as recent as two months ago). "It has brand name recognition. I'll get in now while everyone is doing it, and then sell when I double or triple, etc".

Many don't understand how wallets and addresses work. Many don't fully grasp the tech. Mark Cuban himself saying people should get in on it with no more than 10% of your financial worth, but offered no reason why it will continue to go up other than "something is worth what someone else is willing to pay for it" (https://youtu.be/vYdrMXkYQfM?t=62).


L.A.S.

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Re: Is it too late [bitcoin]?
« Reply #695 on: January 11, 2018, 09:00:45 AM »

Clearly a currency issued by nation B isn't an attack on nation A's sovereignty, right?

Here ya go...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Superdollar

An example of where Nation B is in control of and issues a currency to be used as money in Nation A.  I would say if its not an attack on sovereignty itself to interfere with the government backed currency of Nation A, it is at least an attack on the economy of Nation A.

Now, I can already hear the shrill hollers of how in this example Nation B issued counterfeit currency.  On a philosophical level, though, what is the difference? Cryptos and counterfeit currency are both fake money.  Neither have any government backing anywhere, both can be created at will by counterfeiters or crypto miners (yes, bitcoin is limited to 21million, blah,blah blah, but it can fork at any time and there are other alt-coins).   And as far as I can tell both cryptos and counterfeit money designed solely to extract goods and services from the target economy or economies.  Can counterfeit money be used to exchange goods and services? Sure. Does that make it real? No.  Same with cryptos.

lifeanon269

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Re: Is it too late [bitcoin]?
« Reply #696 on: January 11, 2018, 09:19:25 AM »
On a philosophical level, though, what is the difference?

The difference is that one is pretending to be a currency that it is not, while the other is trying to be something entirely new. The reason why this is a big difference is because merchant A who accepts US dollar bills has no way to detect a counterfeit US dollar bill that is of extreme high quality like that. So a merchant has no way of protecting itself from the risk of that fake currency which is why Nation B can attack Nation A with a counterfeit currency in such a way.

Bitcoin is not trying to be US dollar bills. Merchants can choose to accept it or not. Since there is no way to counterfeit Bitcoin, if Bitcoin is the only crypto-currency that the Merchant accepts, no additional new crypto-currencies that are created are a threat to the Bitcoin that Merchant A accepts. Likewise, Merchant A's acceptance of Bitcoin in no way threatens the legitimacy of the US dollar bills it receives.

What you're essentially saying is that because a counterfeit Mona Lisa being created is an attack on the original Mona Lisa, then all new art work is also an attack on the original Mona Lisa. ...that doesn't really make sense.

maizeman

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Re: Is it too late [bitcoin]?
« Reply #697 on: January 11, 2018, 09:30:59 AM »
Yup, I'm with lifeanon on this one. The distinction is between an exchanging goods and services for some unit of exchange, with both ends of the transaction knowing what they are giving up and what they are receiving, and exchanging goods and services for some unit of exchange where one side of the transaction thinks they are getting X in exchange for Y but they actually receive Z in exchange for Y.

L.A.S., no one will ever trick you into thinking you are receiving US dollars, but after they walk out of the store you look more closely and realize they actually handed you a bitcoin.

brooklynguy

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Re: Is it too late [bitcoin]?
« Reply #698 on: January 11, 2018, 10:10:59 AM »
The difference is that one is pretending to be a currency that it is not

Even more importantly (insofar as the sovereignty question is concerned), counterfeit money is pretending to be the specific currency that has been sanctioned by the state as its jurisdiction's legal tender (the medium of payment recognized by the legal system as necessarily valid for satisfying financial obligations), the exclusive authority to designate which is an important component of a state's monetary sovereignty.

Gondolin

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Re: Is it too late [bitcoin]?
« Reply #699 on: January 11, 2018, 11:14:59 AM »
Quote
I don't see how a currency not issued by a particular government is an attack on a nation's sovereignty. ....

All good points and I think sovereignty was the wrong word to use.

You mentioned that there were lots of currencies in the 19th century. Now they we've moved away from that model, what makes you think governments (especially repressive ones) will be willing to go back?

At this time the primary argument for cryptocurrency I've seen is that you can dodge governments and transact anonymously. However, for mass adoption, crypto would need to become as regulated as fait (if not more so).

So crypto is the future because it's not like fait but, to be widely adopted, it has to become like fait, which removes the impetus for its adoption. Is there a way out of this contradiction?

I mean, we've all heard the argument that a way that governments are evil and you'll be glad you have a global currency when your government inevitably collapses but, the source of such declarations are usually less than credible.

« Last Edit: January 11, 2018, 11:38:19 AM by Gondolin »
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