Author Topic: Is it too late [bitcoin]?  (Read 77512 times)

GuitarStv

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Re: Is it too late [bitcoin]?
« Reply #550 on: January 02, 2018, 11:06:57 AM »

lifeanon269

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Re: Is it too late [bitcoin]?
« Reply #551 on: January 02, 2018, 11:34:45 AM »
Anyone that says cryptocurrencies aren’t investments because they don’t provide a return, well, you’re wrong.

In 2018, ETH is moving from Proof of work to proof of stake. By staking your currencies and validating payments, you will receive a return on your investment similar to dividends.

So, move on from that criticism because it is flat out objectively wrong.

And if anyone is geared up to say it’s not an investment yet because they’re not doing that now, we’ll, that’s wrong too. A stock, for example, is an investment based on future returns; it doesn’t matter if they’re paying dividends today.

Mining and validating are investments because, yes, they do make a return.  If I understand it correctly, the currency itself is NOT an investment, though, because it itself isn't making any return if it just sits there. 

And people get confused with stocks because some of the return comes from capital gains due to reinvested earnings improving the company.  That's different than just getting more money because somebody is willing to pay more for the exact same thing that hasn't been improved in any way.

I understand where you're both coming from, but what about resources? Can resources be considered investable? Resources provide no returns themselves. Whether or not a resource provides a return on investment later in the future becomes a question about whether or not its future scarcity and demand will contend with each other.

For example, gold is a resource. Is gold considered an investment above and beyond its industrial uses? What about water? Water may not provide a large return over the short-term, but long term it may be extremely scarce and therefore the work required to acquire water may be extensive. Due to the work required to obtain it and its future demand likely to rise, it will be exponentially more valuable in the future.

I think this is where the crux of the question lies. Resources themselves have value due to their scarcity and the work required to acquire them. They also have value and demand because of the utility they provide.

So if these same properties are taken into the context of bitcoin, then bitcoin requires work to acquire and process them. This work is extensive and bitcoin is also a scarce resource in the sense that they will only exist in limited quantity on the Bitcoin network itself. The Bitcoin network is not something that can simply be duplicated, so the idea that an infinite number of crypto-currencies can be created with the same value is false. Also the Bitcoin network, where these tokens are utilized, is where the value resides. So in order to utilize the value of the Bitcoin network, these tokens must be used. Therefore the value of the Bitcoin network is passed onto the tokens themselves as well. Even though the tokens have no inherent value on their own (since they're virtual), they still acquire the value of the Bitcoin network due to the fact that they can't be decoupled from each other. This means a network effect begins to take hold. The more people that are using this network, the more value it has. So the question then comes down to whether or not you feel that the Bitcoin network will have value to a larger number of people in the future than it does today. If so, then I feel that the "investability" of Bitcoin today is no different than that of other resources that are both scarce and in demand.

The question then comes down to the same question we have for gold, water, or any other resource. Do you feel that the future value of this resource (the Bitcoin network) will be in demand in the future? There is the debate.

Otherwise arguing over whether or not you feel Bitcoin can be categorized as an "investment" is rather pointless. I think people like to pigeon hole the term of what is "investable" down to very specific properties, but in my opinion that is very limiting in scope of where true value is found in this world.
« Last Edit: January 02, 2018, 11:37:14 AM by lifeanon269 »

sol

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Re: Is it too late [bitcoin]?
« Reply #552 on: January 02, 2018, 12:15:42 PM »
So if these same properties are taken into the context of bitcoin, then bitcoin requires work to acquire and process them. This work is extensive and bitcoin is also a scarce resource in the sense that they will only exist in limited quantity on the Bitcoin network itself. The Bitcoin network is not something that can simply be duplicated, so the idea that an infinite number of crypto-currencies can be created with the same value is false. Also the Bitcoin network, where these tokens are utilized, is where the value resides. So in order to utilize the value of the Bitcoin network, these tokens must be used. Therefore the value of the Bitcoin network is passed onto the tokens themselves as well. Even though the tokens have no inherent value on their own (since they're virtual), they still acquire the value of the Bitcoin network due to the fact that they can't be decoupled from each other. This means a network effect begins to take hold. The more people that are using this network, the more value it has. So the question then comes down to whether or not you feel that the Bitcoin network will have value to a larger number of people in the future than it does today. If so, then I feel that the "investability" of Bitcoin today is no different than that of other resources that are both scarce and in demand.

This argument seems to ignore the nearly-limitless list of alternative digital coins currently multiplying on the internet.  Arguing that bitcoins can't be duplicated seems a little like arguing that Toyota Tercels can't be duplicated.  They absolutely can be duplicated, functionally in every way except name, or better alternatives can be introduced to supplant it.

If the value in bitcoins is in the network, I think we need to identify why THIS network is better than the alternatives.  Where is the Buffet moat?  What is the added value, or the market incentive for adoption?  In what use case is bitcoin better than existing alternatives?  What is the track record of the person managing the growth and build-out strategy, and are their financial incentives aligned with yours?  These are the basic questions we ask of ANY investment before deciding if it is worthwhile.

Frankly I don't see it yet.  Bitcoin necessarily uses instantaneous irreversible transactions, which seem like a terrible idea from a consumer's perspective.  I'd much rather get 3% cash back and fraud protection with my credit card, which is more widely accepted, more convenient to manage online, faster and easier to use for purchases, and has an established dispute resolution process already in place.  I will use cash if I want to be anonymous or avoid government oversight.  I will trade pounds for remninbi if I want to speculate in currencies.  I will invest in the NASDAQ if I believe in the power of future technologies.

The only benefit I can identify in bitcoin is that it is super volatile, and currently getting outsized media hype, which together mean crazy short term gains.  I am not tempted by get-rich-quick schemes, though, because I've seen how those play out before.  Hard pass, thanks.
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lifeanon269

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Re: Is it too late [bitcoin]?
« Reply #553 on: January 02, 2018, 12:55:03 PM »
So if these same properties are taken into the context of bitcoin, then bitcoin requires work to acquire and process them. This work is extensive and bitcoin is also a scarce resource in the sense that they will only exist in limited quantity on the Bitcoin network itself. The Bitcoin network is not something that can simply be duplicated, so the idea that an infinite number of crypto-currencies can be created with the same value is false. Also the Bitcoin network, where these tokens are utilized, is where the value resides. So in order to utilize the value of the Bitcoin network, these tokens must be used. Therefore the value of the Bitcoin network is passed onto the tokens themselves as well. Even though the tokens have no inherent value on their own (since they're virtual), they still acquire the value of the Bitcoin network due to the fact that they can't be decoupled from each other. This means a network effect begins to take hold. The more people that are using this network, the more value it has. So the question then comes down to whether or not you feel that the Bitcoin network will have value to a larger number of people in the future than it does today. If so, then I feel that the "investability" of Bitcoin today is no different than that of other resources that are both scarce and in demand.

This argument seems to ignore the nearly-limitless list of alternative digital coins currently multiplying on the internet.  Arguing that bitcoins can't be duplicated seems a little like arguing that Toyota Tercels can't be duplicated.  They absolutely can be duplicated, functionally in every way except name, or better alternatives can be introduced to supplant it.

I absolutely addressed it, perhaps you didn't catch it. I bolded it above. If you don't understand why that is true and can't extrapolate that statement to understand the actual reasons why it can't be duplicated, then I can certainly elaborate on that for you if you'd like.

Proof to the above statement is the fact that Bitcoin has been forked or attempted to be forked and all of those attempts have been valued differently than the actual Bitcoin network's token. BCash, which was a fork of Bitcoin, has a different value in the market than Bitcoin. If their networks provided the same inherent value to the market, then their prices would be the same. The same can be said of any other crypto-currency.

Bitcoin has more computing power than any other payment network in the world. There are tens of thousands of nodes around the world validating and storing copies of the Bitcoin blockchain. There is massive amounts of economic infrastructure built up around this network providing value-add use cases and economic activity. The market understand this and this is the very reason why it isn't something that can be simply duplicated. That's like suggesting that the talent of a particular artist doesn't yield demand of their work because there are many people in the world that could probably replicate their work extremely similarly.

I am not here trying to convince you that Bitcoin is the right investment for you. What I am trying to do is to get you to stop thinking from merely your own perspective and realize that Bitcoin is an option that can provide value to many people in this world that no other financial instrument can provide. All of your examples you've provided are strictly speaking from your own perspective. You may prefer the consumer protection that VISA provides, but someone else might prefer the consumer protection that Bitcoin provides, especially if VISA isn't an option for them. You might prefer using cash to remain anonymous, but someone else either might not have a stable currency available to them for use or the localized requirement of cash might not be suitable for someone looking to participate in the global market. You may look to other investments that meet your needs and risk appetite while someone else might prefer the benefits that Bitcoin provides (I've listed numerous benefits in another thread that you can find in this forum). It isn't enough that some other financial instruments can provide some of the benefits of Bitcoin, because Bitcoin provides all of those benefits all of the time. So it is only natural for it to provide a unique value proposition beyond what our traditional financial system can provide to many people all around the world.

KTG

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Re: Is it too late [bitcoin]?
« Reply #554 on: January 02, 2018, 01:06:07 PM »
Hold on. Last week it was Bitcoin, then yesterday Ripple. Now its Stellar.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/02/theres-a-new-hottest-coin-of-2018-so-far-stellar.html

Peeps jumping over each other to get in on a crypto before 'it explodes'. I can't sell help but laugh at the insanity. Just check out all the cryptos that are out there, and realize than just about all of these cannot be used as payment to the vast majority of the millions and millions of businesses on the planet.

https://coinmarketcap.com/all/views/all/

But I guess this just means that I 'dont understand the technology'. Lets check back at the end of 2018 and see how many new cryptos there are. If there are fools willing to buy these, then people are going to bend over backwards creating more.

We might as well create a MMMCoin. Announce it to the world that is uses BLOCKCHAIN!!! and the money will come pouring in.

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Re: Is it too late [bitcoin]?
« Reply #555 on: January 02, 2018, 01:19:42 PM »
I can't wait to see some idiot on CNBC talking about a diversified crypto portfolio. Maybe its already happened.

"What you want if you want to play aggressive to put 30% in Bitcoin, 20% in Ripple, Stellar, and Monero each, and then 5% in Ethereum, which will leave you 5% to invest in a wildcard like Wild Beast Block or PonziCoin."

I can just hear it out of the mouths of one of the morons on Fast Money.

DS

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Re: Is it too late [bitcoin]?
« Reply #556 on: January 02, 2018, 01:21:29 PM »
Did we figure out if it's too late yet?

lifeanon269

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Re: Is it too late [bitcoin]?
« Reply #557 on: January 02, 2018, 01:35:23 PM »
To be fair KTG, many currencies aren't looking to become the next payment network. Many of these currencies are proposing new alternatives to a vast array of ideas out there such as identity management, advertising, secure messaging, storage, voting, public ownership, notarization, marketplaces/exchanges, AI communication, etc. Certainly there is probably more money flowing into these ideas than is warranted which will only result in pain for those that over-extended. But the idea that there are "too many" crypto-currencies out there is like saying there is too much innovation taking place. I can absolutely guarantee you that next year there will be way more crypto-currencies in existence than there are today. That doesn't necessarily mean that is a bad thing. In my opinion, in a world where the only currency that was ever in existence were those that only the elite and sovereign nations of the world sanctioned, it is refreshing to see that anyone with an idea can create something that the world can then freely decide upon.

dougules

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Re: Is it too late [bitcoin]?
« Reply #558 on: January 02, 2018, 02:21:34 PM »
Anyone that says cryptocurrencies aren’t investments because they don’t provide a return, well, you’re wrong.

In 2018, ETH is moving from Proof of work to proof of stake. By staking your currencies and validating payments, you will receive a return on your investment similar to dividends.

So, move on from that criticism because it is flat out objectively wrong.

And if anyone is geared up to say it’s not an investment yet because they’re not doing that now, we’ll, that’s wrong too. A stock, for example, is an investment based on future returns; it doesn’t matter if they’re paying dividends today.

Mining and validating are investments because, yes, they do make a return.  If I understand it correctly, the currency itself is NOT an investment, though, because it itself isn't making any return if it just sits there. 

And people get confused with stocks because some of the return comes from capital gains due to reinvested earnings improving the company.  That's different than just getting more money because somebody is willing to pay more for the exact same thing that hasn't been improved in any way.

I understand where you're both coming from, but what about resources? Can resources be considered investable? Resources provide no returns themselves. Whether or not a resource provides a return on investment later in the future becomes a question about whether or not its future scarcity and demand will contend with each other.

For example, gold is a resource. Is gold considered an investment above and beyond its industrial uses? What about water? Water may not provide a large return over the short-term, but long term it may be extremely scarce and therefore the work required to acquire water may be extensive. Due to the work required to obtain it and its future demand likely to rise, it will be exponentially more valuable in the future.

I think this is where the crux of the question lies. Resources themselves have value due to their scarcity and the work required to acquire them. They also have value and demand because of the utility they provide.

So if these same properties are taken into the context of bitcoin, then bitcoin requires work to acquire and process them. This work is extensive and bitcoin is also a scarce resource in the sense that they will only exist in limited quantity on the Bitcoin network itself. The Bitcoin network is not something that can simply be duplicated, so the idea that an infinite number of crypto-currencies can be created with the same value is false. Also the Bitcoin network, where these tokens are utilized, is where the value resides. So in order to utilize the value of the Bitcoin network, these tokens must be used. Therefore the value of the Bitcoin network is passed onto the tokens themselves as well. Even though the tokens have no inherent value on their own (since they're virtual), they still acquire the value of the Bitcoin network due to the fact that they can't be decoupled from each other. This means a network effect begins to take hold. The more people that are using this network, the more value it has. So the question then comes down to whether or not you feel that the Bitcoin network will have value to a larger number of people in the future than it does today. If so, then I feel that the "investability" of Bitcoin today is no different than that of other resources that are both scarce and in demand.

The question then comes down to the same question we have for gold, water, or any other resource. Do you feel that the future value of this resource (the Bitcoin network) will be in demand in the future? There is the debate.

Otherwise arguing over whether or not you feel Bitcoin can be categorized as an "investment" is rather pointless. I think people like to pigeon hole the term of what is "investable" down to very specific properties, but in my opinion that is very limiting in scope of where true value is found in this world.

Resources aren't investments in and of themselves.  The thing that produces the resources is an investment.  If you're just betting on the value going up, it's speculation. 

Gold is not actually an investment either.  It's a store of value.  Gold might be useful to have alongside investments, but it doesn't actually produce anything.  An actual investment in gold would be buying a gold mine, or just stock in a company that has one.  Gold and Bitcoin are similar in some ways.  Bitcoin is not an investment, but mining it is. 

Other resources like water aren't investments.  It's the thing that produces the resources that's an investment.  Water isn't an investment, but a well and a pump are. 

I don't know if Bitcoin will be important in the future, but I also strongly believe nobody else does either.  You can speculate on it, but high reward = high risk. 

Usually I'd say semantic arguments about what "investment" means are pointless, but here I think it's really important.  The difference between using the word "investing" and the word "speculating" has a big impact on how people treat trying to make dollars off of cryptocurrencies. 


To be fair KTG, many currencies aren't looking to become the next payment network. Many of these currencies are proposing new alternatives to a vast array of ideas out there such as identity management, advertising, secure messaging, storage, voting, public ownership, notarization, marketplaces/exchanges, AI communication, etc. Certainly there is probably more money flowing into these ideas than is warranted which will only result in pain for those that over-extended. But the idea that there are "too many" crypto-currencies out there is like saying there is too much innovation taking place. I can absolutely guarantee you that next year there will be way more crypto-currencies in existence than there are today. That doesn't necessarily mean that is a bad thing. In my opinion, in a world where the only currency that was ever in existence were those that only the elite and sovereign nations of the world sanctioned, it is refreshing to see that anyone with an idea can create something that the world can then freely decide upon.

True, but if you're looking to speculate on one of them specifically, eg bitcoin, then the wide diversity is a bad thing for you.   

maizeman

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Re: Is it too late [bitcoin]?
« Reply #559 on: January 02, 2018, 04:28:55 PM »
I agree that both resources (commodities) and currencies (conventional or crypto) are in a different basket from stocks and bonds. Stocks and bonds inherently are expected to increase in value over time (although obviously in some cases individual ones go to zero).

If we think about the value of a ton of zinc, or the value of polish 100 złoty note in dollars, the value might go up in ten years, it might go down in ten years, but there's no inherent reason that its more likely to go in one direction than the other (although you can certainly do lots of analysis and make your best guess about which direction either is going to move).

That's why you see so many stock index funds, and bond index funds, but you don't see a lot of commodity index funds or currency index funds. The former has an inherent upward trend, the latter only really provides a positive return if you're fortunate enough to pick winners.

I can't wait to see some idiot on CNBC talking about a diversified crypto portfolio. Maybe its already happened.

"What you want if you want to play aggressive to put 30% in Bitcoin, 20% in Ripple, Stellar, and Monero each, and then 5% in Ethereum, which will leave you 5% to invest in a wildcard like Wild Beast Block or PonziCoin."

I can just hear it out of the mouths of one of the morons on Fast Money.

From all the way back in August. I agree, it's ridiculous:

https://www.cnbc.com/video/2017/08/16/heres-how-to-build-your-cryptocurrency-portfolio.html

lifeanon269

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Re: Is it too late [bitcoin]?
« Reply #560 on: January 02, 2018, 04:39:48 PM »
True, but if you're looking to speculate on one of them specifically, eg bitcoin, then the wide diversity is a bad thing for you.

That's like saying that competition to Apple is bad for the consumer. In my opinion, I'd much rather see new ideas and innovations tried and tested out in markets that are only a few million dollars in size as opposed to seeing those ideas tested out in a 300+ billion dollar market. If those ideas prove to be truly innovative, then they can always be adopted much like Apple can adopt new innovations that Samsung releases.

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sol

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Re: Is it too late [bitcoin]?
« Reply #562 on: January 02, 2018, 06:19:59 PM »
http://www.mrmoneymustache.com/2018/01/02/why-bitcoin-is-stupid/

Just for the record, I'd like to state that our site founder agrees with me and not with 90% of the people in this thread. 

But hey, he and I could both be wrong!

I genuinely want you all to get rich.  I think bitcoin is a bad way to do that, but if you can make it work for you I won't hold it against you.  Good luck, bitcoiners.
sol will be totally offline for most of June 2018.  You cannot reach me.  You will not hear from me.  I am not dead, just away from civilization.

maizeman

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Re: Is it too late [bitcoin]?
« Reply #563 on: January 02, 2018, 06:35:47 PM »
Just for the record, I'd like to state that our site founder agrees with me and not with 90% of the people in this thread. 

Sol, by my count there are at most five active accounts potentially arguing that it makes sense to invest in some kind of cryptocurrency* sometimes (shadow, phil22, lifeanon269, thenextguy, and Tonyahu), and at least fifteen accounts (myself included) who have posted that it does not make sense to purchase cryptocurrencies as investments in the two most recent pages of posts alone.

*And I think at least several of them also have agreed that the current price of bitcoin represents a bubble.

sol

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Re: Is it too late [bitcoin]?
« Reply #564 on: January 02, 2018, 07:00:38 PM »
Sol, by my count there are at most five active accounts potentially arguing that it makes sense to invest in some kind of cryptocurrency* sometimes (shadow, phil22, lifeanon269, thenextguy, and Tonyahu), and at least fifteen accounts (myself included) who have posted that it does not make sense to purchase cryptocurrencies as investments in the two most recent pages of posts alone.

You could stop being all "logical" and "correct" and just let me indulge my petty meanness for a moment, you know. 

"Na Na Na, I told you so...  pbbbttttt."

Okay, I think I have that out of my system. 
sol will be totally offline for most of June 2018.  You cannot reach me.  You will not hear from me.  I am not dead, just away from civilization.

phil22

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Re: Is it too late [bitcoin]?
« Reply #565 on: January 02, 2018, 09:55:23 PM »
http://www.mrmoneymustache.com/2018/01/02/why-bitcoin-is-stupid/

perhaps the price bubble formed from speculators is "stupid", but bitcoin itself is not stupid.  that title is just meant as clickbait.  on the other hand this article is substandard for MMM, is shallow and close-minded, and is silly.  (his fingernails are not $70k per bag because no one has paid that.)

i fully agree with MMM and all the posters here saying speculators should NOT "invest" in bitcoin or any other cryptocurrency chasing profits.  i'm surprised MMM didn't directly mention the energy usage of bitcoin mining, since he's environmentally-focused and i think that may kill bitcoin if nothing else does.

that said, this article and all discussion i've seen here says "blockchain not bitcoin" is a good invention.  this may be true, but without a valuable token paid out to honest participants in securing a blockchain, that blockchain will be insecure and useless.  it's a positive feedback loop of incentives.  without a valuable token incentivizing participation you'd have to keep it private, trusted, and centralized, and at that point you may as well use a regular database like we've been using all along.

in 20 years when a cryptocurrency, whichever one, is still around, this article will look pretty silly.

phil22

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Re: Is it too late [bitcoin]?
« Reply #566 on: January 02, 2018, 10:03:15 PM »
Just for the record, I'd like to state that our site founder agrees with me and not with 90% of the people in this thread. 

Sol, by my count there are at most five active accounts potentially arguing that it makes sense to invest in some kind of cryptocurrency* sometimes (shadow, phil22, lifeanon269, thenextguy, and Tonyahu), and at least fifteen accounts (myself included) who have posted that it does not make sense to purchase cryptocurrencies as investments in the two most recent pages of posts alone.

*And I think at least several of them also have agreed that the current price of bitcoin represents a bubble.

put me on the list for never advocating "investing" in any cryptocurrencies.  if you want to blow your beer money on a fraction of a coin one week then fine but you better learn how to manage your private keys yourself first because of forks and blah blah blah.

BattlaP

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Re: Is it too late [bitcoin]?
« Reply #567 on: January 02, 2018, 10:36:04 PM »
http://www.mrmoneymustache.com/2018/01/02/why-bitcoin-is-stupid/

Really glad he weighed in.

This nonsense has no place in the mustachian philosophy. It's greed, scams and idiocy all the way through.

FiveSigmas

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Re: Is it too late [bitcoin]?
« Reply #568 on: January 02, 2018, 10:59:10 PM »
i'm surprised MMM didn't directly mention the energy usage of bitcoin mining, since he's environmentally-focused and i think that may kill bitcoin if nothing else does.

I believe Pete's post does specifically mention the environmental concerns (or maybe he added this later?):

Quote
This Vice article explains yet another ridiculous aspect of Cryptocurrency: running the transaction network (called “Mining”) involves a deliberate computer-intensive crypto challenge syetem called “proof of work”. This inefficient design is now wasting more electricity than many entire countries. Doing one transaction burns 215 kilowatt-hours of electricity, enough to run the entire MMM household for more than a full month, or to power an electric car for more than 800 miles of driving.


perhaps the price bubble formed from speculators is "stupid", but bitcoin itself is not stupid.  that title is just meant as clickbait.

I agree that the title is slightly clickbait-ish. On the other hand, I don't see any value in "investing" in Bitcoin right now, because it doesn't serve me any purpose. In that sense, buying Bitcoin does seem stupid to me.

If and when a cryptocurrency becomes a practical medium of exchange and a store of value, though, I'll be happy to use it as appropriate.

L.A.S.

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Re: Is it too late [bitcoin]?
« Reply #569 on: January 03, 2018, 05:05:47 AM »
http://www.mrmoneymustache.com/2018/01/02/why-bitcoin-is-stupid/

perhaps the price bubble formed from speculators is "stupid", but bitcoin itself is not stupid.  that title is just meant as clickbait.  on the other hand this article is substandard for MMM, is shallow and close-minded, and is silly.  (his fingernails are not $70k per bag because no one has paid that.)

i fully agree with MMM and all the posters here saying speculators should NOT "invest" in bitcoin or any other cryptocurrency chasing profits.  i'm surprised MMM didn't directly mention the energy usage of bitcoin mining, since he's environmentally-focused and i think that may kill bitcoin if nothing else does.

that said, this article and all discussion i've seen here says "blockchain not bitcoin" is a good invention. this may be true, but without a valuable token paid out to honest participants in securing a blockchain, that blockchain will be insecure and useless.  it's a positive feedback loop of incentives.  without a valuable token incentivizing participation you'd have to keep it private, trusted, and centralized, and at that point you may as well use a regular database like we've been using all along.

in 20 years when a cryptocurrency, whichever one, is still around, this article will look pretty silly.

Nope.  I think blockchain is stupid, too.  I agree with pretty much everything in this article:

https://hackernoon.com/ten-years-in-nobody-has-come-up-with-a-use-case-for-blockchain-ee98c180100

It's been around for almost 10 years.  Sure, lay-people are just starting to come to the party (heaven help them).  But techies and tech companies have known about blockchain for years.  Many were/are even hobbyists in it. 

IF it is so great, then why haven't other more useful use-cases been implemented by now?  When a great new technological innovation hits, all of the large competitors usually race to implement it.  With block chain, no one can figure out what to do with it.

In 20 years, blockchain will be in the dustbin of unadopted worthless technology.

KTG

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Re: Is it too late [bitcoin]?
« Reply #570 on: January 03, 2018, 07:18:28 AM »
From all the way back in August. I agree, it's ridiculous:

https://www.cnbc.com/video/2017/08/16/heres-how-to-build-your-cryptocurrency-portfolio.html

Wow. So I did the math on what a $1k investment would return and his portfolio would be worth $5k at yesterday's prices. I just do not see the justification for this. I cannot spend the vast majority of these currencies ANYWHERE. I would literally be purchasing 1s and 0s here. I just can't do it no matter what the returns are.

These cryptos are literally like their own market, with peeps buying and selling on speculation. I guess the cheap entry price is easy for some, but once you get out of 10s of dollars range, I just can't believe people are doing this. There is no doubt this is going to end very, very badly.


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Re: Is it too late [bitcoin]?
« Reply #571 on: January 03, 2018, 07:40:46 AM »
My cousin and I were talking (before the blog post came out), and he said that he thinks about a country called Bitcoinia. When he wants to go to Iceland, he knows that travel there will involve buying goods and services in Iceland. But right now, there aren't goods/services available in Bitcoinia that he wants to buy (he did want to buy a book from Iceland recently).

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Re: Is it too late [bitcoin]?
« Reply #572 on: January 03, 2018, 09:02:33 AM »
i'm surprised MMM didn't directly mention the energy usage of bitcoin mining, since he's environmentally-focused and i think that may kill bitcoin if nothing else does.

I believe Pete's post does specifically mention the environmental concerns (or maybe he added this later?):

Quote
This Vice article explains yet another ridiculous aspect of Cryptocurrency: running the transaction network (called “Mining”) involves a deliberate computer-intensive crypto challenge syetem called “proof of work”. This inefficient design is now wasting more electricity than many entire countries. Doing one transaction burns 215 kilowatt-hours of electricity, enough to run the entire MMM household for more than a full month, or to power an electric car for more than 800 miles of driving.

thanks, i may have missed that.

as i said above, the energy consumption is a big problem and it may kill bitcoin.  but Pete is repeating the same ignorant inaccurately reported crap about "electricity use per transaction" we've seen mentioned time and again.  it's all about the cumulative proof of work from 9 years ago today that keeps all past transactions secure.

perhaps the price bubble formed from speculators is "stupid", but bitcoin itself is not stupid.  that title is just meant as clickbait.

I agree that the title is slightly clickbait-ish. On the other hand, I don't see any value in "investing" in Bitcoin right now, because it doesn't serve me any purpose. In that sense, buying Bitcoin does seem stupid to me.

agreed

maizeman

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Re: Is it too late [bitcoin]?
« Reply #573 on: January 03, 2018, 09:08:12 AM »
Just for the record, I'd like to state that our site founder agrees with me and not with 90% of the people in this thread. 

Sol, by my count there are at most five active accounts potentially arguing that it makes sense to invest in some kind of cryptocurrency* sometimes (shadow, phil22, lifeanon269, thenextguy, and Tonyahu), and at least fifteen accounts (myself included) who have posted that it does not make sense to purchase cryptocurrencies as investments in the two most recent pages of posts alone.

*And I think at least several of them also have agreed that the current price of bitcoin represents a bubble.

put me on the list for never advocating "investing" in any cryptocurrencies.  if you want to blow your beer money on a fraction of a coin one week then fine but you better learn how to manage your private keys yourself first because of forks and blah blah blah.

Please accept my apologies for the mischaracterization of your views, Phill22.

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Re: Is it too late [bitcoin]?
« Reply #574 on: January 03, 2018, 09:55:01 AM »
Long time reader of Bitcoin, but never bought any or any other Cryptos... Below is from the WSO forum and best reflects my thoughts on Bitcoin.

As a former currency trader who now invests in technology businesses, I feel compelled to comment--this shit is nuts. The vast majority of these ICOs are going to 0. The vast majority of so-called 'blockchain' businesses are going to 0. I'm old enough to remember the dot.com bubble.

In 1997, any internet company was well bid precisely because the people investing in it did not understand what they were buying. I got asked by a waitress at a cocktail bar recently about whether she should invest in bitcoin. She has NO other investments and knows nothing about finance or the underlying technology. And while that anecdote doesn't implicitly scale to the larger market, I think it's an indication of it.

I had a friend in high school who went to jail for dealing drugs that killed one of our other friends. He's out of jail now, can barely spell, and has $1M worth of cryptocurrencies. While there are a few respectable TRADERS who are into this at the moment, there are few respectable INVESTORS who have jumped into the deep end of the pool as of yet.

Traders can make a lot of money in a bubble so long as they get out before the collapse, but as a former trader, I warn those of you who aren't professionals that it's exceedingly difficult to pick tops and bottoms. That's not how any trader makes money. And for those of you who don't understand A LOT of the underlying technology and the corresponding policy drivers that will invariably poke a hole in the sidewall of this over-inflated nonsense, I have another anecdote: I have never known a successful tech investor who doesn't understand the tech in which they invest.

Now, there is a chance that I'm simply too old, too dumb or too myopic to understand this newfangled technology, but I think not. One or two of these will work out. For ICOs that are ostensibly replacements for shares, I think they're almost all going to 0. For 'crypto' companies that change their name to 'reflect the new reality of what their companies do', they're almost surely going to 0. For people who think they're buying a currency with their investments in the space, they're likely to be disappointed. Most of these 'assets' will never become currencies. They will mostly become valueless commodities. For those of you who think you have the chops to pick the handful of winners out of hundreds of options, I say to you, "Good luck." For those of you who just want to make some money trading, keep it light and take profits when you can. For every person who made a fortune in the dot.com bubble, there were dozens of people who lost their shirts, their shoes and most importantly, their chance to take risk in their careers.

If you're not risking much, knock yourself out. But view this as a gamble, not an investment. And if you get lucky, and happen to pick the winner in this chariot race, congratulations. But try not to pretend ex post that you were some sort of genius, and saw the whole thing playing out precisely as it did. I know far too many dicks in the VC world who got lucky or were in the right place at the only moment someone like them could ever have made any real money. They concoct some narrative after-the-fact that paints themselves as some sort of sagacious prognosticator. Don't be that guy.

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Re: Is it too late [bitcoin]?
« Reply #575 on: January 03, 2018, 10:04:40 AM »
IF it is so great, then why haven't other more useful use-cases been implemented by now?  When a great new technological innovation hits, all of the large competitors usually race to implement it.  With block chain, no one can figure out what to do with it.

In 20 years, blockchain will be in the dustbin of unadopted worthless technology.

I don't know about blockchain in particular, but there are certainly very successful technologies that have had long gestation times. RSA public-key cryptography, for instance, was first published in 1976. It took until 1994 before HTTPS (arguably its break-out usage) was even invented.

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Re: Is it too late [bitcoin]?
« Reply #576 on: January 03, 2018, 10:26:03 AM »
Just for the record, I'd like to state that our site founder agrees with me and not with 90% of the people in this thread. 

Sol, by my count there are at most five active accounts potentially arguing that it makes sense to invest in some kind of cryptocurrency* sometimes (shadow, phil22, lifeanon269, thenextguy, and Tonyahu), and at least fifteen accounts (myself included) who have posted that it does not make sense to purchase cryptocurrencies as investments in the two most recent pages of posts alone.

*And I think at least several of them also have agreed that the current price of bitcoin represents a bubble.

put me on the list for never advocating "investing" in any cryptocurrencies.  if you want to blow your beer money on a fraction of a coin one week then fine but you better learn how to manage your private keys yourself first because of forks and blah blah blah.

Me too. In fact, my stance is the opposite: https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/is-it-too-late-(cryptocurrency)/?PHPSESSID=b0vm70p5b9kt0erchpgm1dsu25. I even urged people who are interested in crypto and have some confidence in it, to limit to a small amount if they wanted to speculate. I replied to the op of this thread with advice because he asked about speculating on 3k. I never indicated to anyone who didn't ask or wasn't interested in crypto to put some funds into crypto; though, I've seen other people with crypto replies in other threads that didn't specifically ask about crypto. I'm not part of that group.

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Re: Is it too late [bitcoin]?
« Reply #577 on: January 03, 2018, 10:29:53 AM »
So noted, and apologies to you as well shadow for misrepresenting your position.

This has been part of what has been so frustrating for me about reading crypto threads in recent weeks. People keep coming in and making dramatic arguments against the position that people should invest their life savings in cryptocurrencies like they are saying something amazingly controversial, when almost no one (on this board) is actually advocating that position.

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Re: Is it too late [bitcoin]?
« Reply #578 on: January 03, 2018, 10:30:23 AM »
Is anyone willing to come forward and publicly recommend an investment in bitcoin at today's prices?

This thread is about to get a whole lot less interesting if we're 100% in agreement that holding bitcoin now is stupid.
« Last Edit: January 03, 2018, 11:59:30 AM by sol »
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Re: Is it too late [bitcoin]?
« Reply #579 on: January 03, 2018, 10:33:09 AM »
http://www.mrmoneymustache.com/2018/01/02/why-bitcoin-is-stupid/

Just for the record, I'd like to state that our site founder agrees with me and not with 90% of the people in this thread. 

But hey, he and I could both be wrong!

I genuinely want you all to get rich.  I think bitcoin is a bad way to do that, but if you can make it work for you I won't hold it against you.  Good luck, bitcoiners.

For a long time, it was the opposite: it was crypto enthusiast vs the world. Years ago, there was a thread in the off-topic section, with something like "bitcoin: a classic case of a bubble" and 90% of comments then were contempt and scorn for blockchain tech. And there is still alot of people that disagree about crypto.     

The future will be the verdict.

lifeanon269

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Re: Is it too late [bitcoin]?
« Reply #580 on: January 03, 2018, 11:53:01 AM »
Is anyone willing to come forward and publicly recommend an investment in bitcoin at today's prices?

This thread is about to get a whole lot less interesting of we're 100% in agreement that holding bitcoin now is stupid.

I see no problem with someone who wants to allocate something like 1% of their portfolio in Bitcoin. After all, just about everything out there is overpriced at the moment by most measures. The price of a bitcoin is just a proxy for the market size. So suggesting that the price of a bitcoin today is over or under valued means that one is suggesting that the market size is either to big or too small. I believe in Bitcoin from a technological perspective and personally spend time programming with it and believe there are a lot of use cases that will drive future outside money into Bitcoin. So it is my opinion that the market size will continue to grow into the foreseeable future.

I've said this numerous times before though. Don't mistake my opinions of Bitcoin or any other crypto-currency as investment advice for the individual. To give investment advice to an individual, you need to understand that individuals financial situation and risk tolerance. Because I don't know anyone's personal financial situation or risk tolerance, I cannot, with good intention, give any sort of investment advice. So while I stand by my position on the above about Bitcoin, that is not me giving an endorsement for any given individual to invest in bitcoin. Hopefully that distinction makes sense.

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Re: Is it too late [bitcoin]?
« Reply #581 on: January 03, 2018, 12:15:05 PM »
Is anyone willing to come forward and publicly recommend an investment in bitcoin at today's prices?

This thread is about to get a whole lot less interesting if we're 100% in agreement that holding bitcoin now is stupid.

I'm happy to play John Cleese to your Michael Palin, if you think it would help.

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Re: Is it too late [bitcoin]?
« Reply #582 on: January 03, 2018, 03:01:45 PM »
Is anyone willing to come forward and publicly recommend an investment in bitcoin at today's prices?

This thread is about to get a whole lot less interesting if we're 100% in agreement that holding bitcoin now is stupid.

Rating Bitcoin as a "hold" is different than rating it as a "buy". If someone admitted to me that she had it today, I'd encourage her to liquidate 4% of it, i.e. mark the current price and begin withdrawing it on some type of schedule resembline the 4% rule.

The goal when you've gotten lucky is to cash out some gains, and I think there'd be little psychological hangup for anyone cashing out 4% at today's appreciation.

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Re: Is it too late [bitcoin]?
« Reply #583 on: January 03, 2018, 03:07:25 PM »
Is anyone willing to come forward and publicly recommend an investment in bitcoin at today's prices?

This thread is about to get a whole lot less interesting if we're 100% in agreement that holding bitcoin now is stupid.

Rating Bitcoin as a "hold" is different than rating it as a "buy". If someone admitted to me that she had it today, I'd encourage her to liquidate 4% of it, i.e. mark the current price and begin withdrawing it on some type of schedule resembline the 4% rule.

The goal when you've gotten lucky is to cash out some gains, and I think there'd be little psychological hangup for anyone cashing out 4% at today's appreciation.


Quote from: Mr. Money Mustache
If You Wouldn't Buy it, You Should Probably Sell it

Does this not apply to "investments?"

sol

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Re: Is it too late [bitcoin]?
« Reply #584 on: January 03, 2018, 03:20:52 PM »
Quote from: Mr. Money Mustache
If You Wouldn't Buy it, You Should Probably Sell it

Does this not apply to "investments?"

Of course it does.  When it comes to evaluating investments, the only relevant decision is between "should own" and "should not own" and in this context hold and buy are identical decisions.  I thought that was obvious in the original post.

When evaluating relative allocation between assets that you have already decided to own, and which have changed in relative value, you can differentiate some.  But only after you've decided to own, rather than not own.  In my mind, bitcoin is definitely a "should not own" in any proportion. 

I wouldn't buy one for a 90% discount against current prices if I had to own it for ten years.  If I was holding any bitcoin today, I'd be cashing out tomorrow regardless of what I paid for it.
sol will be totally offline for most of June 2018.  You cannot reach me.  You will not hear from me.  I am not dead, just away from civilization.

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Re: Is it too late [bitcoin]?
« Reply #585 on: January 03, 2018, 03:41:00 PM »
Just for the record, I'd like to state that our site founder agrees with me and not with 90% of the people in this thread. 

Sol, by my count there are at most five active accounts potentially arguing that it makes sense to invest in some kind of cryptocurrency* sometimes (shadow, phil22, lifeanon269, thenextguy, and Tonyahu), and at least fifteen accounts (myself included) who have posted that it does not make sense to purchase cryptocurrencies as investments in the two most recent pages of posts alone.

*And I think at least several of them also have agreed that the current price of bitcoin represents a bubble.

Just to make my position known since my name was mentioned. I'm not a fan of Bitcoin; it's the AOL of cryptocurrencies.

As for the idea that blockchain tech is useless because it's been around for 9 whole years, the internet began development in the 1960s.
« Last Edit: January 03, 2018, 03:43:34 PM by thenextguy »

maizeman

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Re: Is it too late [bitcoin]?
« Reply #586 on: January 03, 2018, 03:50:25 PM »
Just for the record, I'd like to state that our site founder agrees with me and not with 90% of the people in this thread. 

Sol, by my count there are at most five active accounts potentially arguing that it makes sense to invest in some kind of cryptocurrency* sometimes (shadow, phil22, lifeanon269, thenextguy, and Tonyahu), and at least fifteen accounts (myself included) who have posted that it does not make sense to purchase cryptocurrencies as investments in the two most recent pages of posts alone.

*And I think at least several of them also have agreed that the current price of bitcoin represents a bubble.

Just to make my position known since my name was mentioned. I'm not a fan of Bitcoin; it's the AOL of cryptocurrencies.

As for the idea that blockchain tech is useless because it's been around for 9 whole years, the internet began development in the 1960s.

I understand. And apologies to you (like with shadow and phil) for misrepresenting your position.

thenextguy

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Re: Is it too late [bitcoin]?
« Reply #587 on: January 03, 2018, 03:55:28 PM »
Just for the record, I'd like to state that our site founder agrees with me and not with 90% of the people in this thread. 

Sol, by my count there are at most five active accounts potentially arguing that it makes sense to invest in some kind of cryptocurrency* sometimes (shadow, phil22, lifeanon269, thenextguy, and Tonyahu), and at least fifteen accounts (myself included) who have posted that it does not make sense to purchase cryptocurrencies as investments in the two most recent pages of posts alone.

*And I think at least several of them also have agreed that the current price of bitcoin represents a bubble.

Just to make my position known since my name was mentioned. I'm not a fan of Bitcoin; it's the AOL of cryptocurrencies.

As for the idea that blockchain tech is useless because it's been around for 9 whole years, the internet began development in the 1960s.

I understand. And apologies to you (like with shadow and phil) for misrepresenting your position.

Oh no, not at all. I didn't mean to imply you did anything wrong. Just going on record :) I am invested in cryptocurrencies, just not Bitcoin.

I believe that within 5 years, cryptocurrencies will be a big part of our lives. If I'm wrong, I'll gladly admit it.

Earlier someone implied that big companies aren't developing the tech and that is just not true. See: https://entethalliance.org/members/

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Re: Is it too late [bitcoin]?
« Reply #588 on: January 04, 2018, 08:22:36 AM »
I rightly deserved Sol's criticism for my position. When I make recommendations to other people, I try to consider the highest degree to which I can persuade them to make a move that will be beneficial. If I think owning no Bitcoin is the best, then I think owning less bitcoin is better than the current state. the sell 4% immediately suggestion seems like it should be a no-brainer even for someone who is quite bullish.

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Re: Is it too late [bitcoin]?
« Reply #589 on: January 04, 2018, 09:14:48 AM »
I find it interesting how some people are offering advice to put 1% or whatever of one's portfolio in cryptocurrencies. Does this reflect 1% of uncertainty about whether cryptocurrencies are a bubble or is it just an attempt to sound (or be) reasonable, like the people proposing we put X% of our portfolio in commodities to diversify?

I ask this because if cryptocurrencies have no value and are a bubble destined to burst, then only a zero allocation makes sense.

It would be like saying one should allocate 1% of one's portfolio to companies that look a lot like pyramid schemes, another 1% to gold coins advertized on fox news, another 1% to penny stocks that faxes received at work says are going to soar, another 1% to companies working on cold fusion, etc... As you can see, eventually this incremental "what if" mindset allocates a decent chunk of change to ideas with a " what-if" chance of paying off and a very high chance of going to zero. It also feeds well-known scams that feed upon FOMO (fear of missing out).

Diversification makes sense within a certain set of investments, but we must be careful not to extend this thinking into the various quasi-legit and somewhat suspicious-looking financial products sold around the periphery of real markets. Beyond some line of legitimacy, one has to switch from diversification thinking to binary "nope, that's bullshit" kind of thinking.

sol

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Re: Is it too late [bitcoin]?
« Reply #590 on: January 04, 2018, 10:50:56 AM »
ML bans bitcoin:  https://www.ccn.com/bank-americas-merrill-lynch-bans-clients-bitcoin-fund/

Don't worry, I'm sure it's totally fine!  What could possibly go wrong?
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lifeanon269

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Re: Is it too late [bitcoin]?
« Reply #591 on: January 04, 2018, 11:03:44 AM »
I find it interesting how some people are offering advice to put 1% or whatever of one's portfolio in cryptocurrencies. Does this reflect 1% of uncertainty about whether cryptocurrencies are a bubble or is it just an attempt to sound (or be) reasonable, like the people proposing we put X% of our portfolio in commodities to diversify?

I ask this because if cryptocurrencies have no value and are a bubble destined to burst, then only a zero allocation makes sense.

It would be like saying one should allocate 1% of one's portfolio to companies that look a lot like pyramid schemes, another 1% to gold coins advertized on fox news, another 1% to penny stocks that faxes received at work says are going to soar, another 1% to companies working on cold fusion, etc... As you can see, eventually this incremental "what if" mindset allocates a decent chunk of change to ideas with a " what-if" chance of paying off and a very high chance of going to zero. It also feeds well-known scams that feed upon FOMO (fear of missing out).

Diversification makes sense within a certain set of investments, but we must be careful not to extend this thinking into the various quasi-legit and somewhat suspicious-looking financial products sold around the periphery of real markets. Beyond some line of legitimacy, one has to switch from diversification thinking to binary "nope, that's bullshit" kind of thinking.

Obviously if your mindset is that Bitcoin will cease to exist in 2 years then that is a perfectly fine standpoint to have and makes sense. However, for those that feel that Bitcoin does have future use-cases as a legitimate technology, then the idea of holding 1% of your portfolio into a non-correlative asset would actually be worthwhile, especially given the fact that most other investment classes themselves are significantly overpriced.

But going down the rabbit hole of 1% here and 1% there isn't what was implied, so extrapolating that out in the way that you did is misrepresentative of the advice at hand.

I do agree about the diversification though which is why in my post I didn't say "crypto-currencies", but bitcoin specifically. So far there has been no sign that the correlation in price movements between bitcoin and the rest of the crypto field will ever diverge. So diversifying beyond bitcoin doesn't really make sense. I'm firmly of the belief that a vast majority of the crypto-currencies today will not be around for the long term.

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Re: Is it too late [bitcoin]?
« Reply #592 on: January 04, 2018, 11:22:38 AM »
I find it interesting how some people are offering advice to put 1% or whatever of one's portfolio in cryptocurrencies. Does this reflect 1% of uncertainty about whether cryptocurrencies are a bubble or is it just an attempt to sound (or be) reasonable, like the people proposing we put X% of our portfolio in commodities to diversify?

I ask this because if cryptocurrencies have no value and are a bubble destined to burst, then only a zero allocation makes sense.

It would be like saying one should allocate 1% of one's portfolio to companies that look a lot like pyramid schemes, another 1% to gold coins advertized on fox news, another 1% to penny stocks that faxes received at work says are going to soar, another 1% to companies working on cold fusion, etc... As you can see, eventually this incremental "what if" mindset allocates a decent chunk of change to ideas with a " what-if" chance of paying off and a very high chance of going to zero. It also feeds well-known scams that feed upon FOMO (fear of missing out).

Diversification makes sense within a certain set of investments, but we must be careful not to extend this thinking into the various quasi-legit and somewhat suspicious-looking financial products sold around the periphery of real markets. Beyond some line of legitimacy, one has to switch from diversification thinking to binary "nope, that's bullshit" kind of thinking.

The people that have some confidence in crypto are going to be in it, no matter what, despite the risk. The "no more than 10-15%" is to discourage from taking on too much risk, and yet enough to warrant capturing a huge upside. Even 3-5% or lower can suffice, if they pick the right crypto for 50-300x returns (or higher) and have an exit strategy. This recommended percentage is an arbitrary evaluation. This is not a reflection of % to uncertainty, and I'm not even sure how you would quantify that. Some crypto may go to zero, but the crypto enthusiast believes the overall market will persist.

Aside, I think >90% of crypto right now are shit. So the odds of most crypto enthusiasts losing are very high, especially when there is a crash.

Lastly, I can't recommend anyone to put any amount into bitcoin.   

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Re: Is it too late [bitcoin]?
« Reply #593 on: January 04, 2018, 11:24:51 AM »
I find it interesting how some people are offering advice to put 1% or whatever of one's portfolio in cryptocurrencies. Does this reflect 1% of uncertainty about whether cryptocurrencies are a bubble or is it just an attempt to sound (or be) reasonable, like the people proposing we put X% of our portfolio in commodities to diversify?

I ask this because if cryptocurrencies have no value and are a bubble destined to burst, then only a zero allocation makes sense.

Those are good questions.  For sake of argument, let's say Bitcoin is NOT a bubble.  Let's say it is a real currency. 

Are those same people advising to put 1% or whatever of their portfolios in other currencies?  Like say, the Euro or Norwegian Kroner?  If not, why not?  Why is Bitcoin a better hedge against the USD than any other currency? 

The answer is they don't really expect it to behave like a currency . 

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Re: Is it too late [bitcoin]?
« Reply #594 on: January 04, 2018, 11:27:07 AM »
...the idea of holding 1% of your portfolio into a non-correlative asset would actually be worthwhile...

This is an interesting point. However, I would argue that until we've been through at least once major recession, we don't yet have enough data to say whether either bitcoin specifically or cryptocurrencies generally are going to be correlated with other asset classes or not.

One of these days we should have another major stock market pullback, and I'm fascinated to see what that does to cryptocurrencies.

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Re: Is it too late [bitcoin]?
« Reply #595 on: January 04, 2018, 11:39:38 AM »
So far there has been no sign that the correlation in price movements between bitcoin and the rest of the crypto field will ever diverge. So diversifying beyond bitcoin doesn't really make sense.

This is misinformation. Anyone can look at cmc, cryptocompare, cryptowat, worldcoindex, etc and see the charts that empirically show otherwise.

In the same timeframe, from last month, that btc moved 30%, some coins moved 30,000 - 110,000%.
« Last Edit: January 04, 2018, 11:44:25 AM by shadow »

Telecaster

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Re: Is it too late [bitcoin]?
« Reply #596 on: January 04, 2018, 11:57:20 AM »
So far there has been no sign that the correlation in price movements between bitcoin and the rest of the crypto field will ever diverge. So diversifying beyond bitcoin doesn't really make sense.

This is misinformation. Anyone can look at cmc, cryptocompare, cryptowat, worldcoindex, etc and see the charts that empirically show otherwise.

In the same timeframe, from last month, that btc moved 30%, some coins moved 30,000 - 110,000%.

Most of us have at least 30 year investment horizons--and probably much more.   Is one month of data meaningful over those time frames? 

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Re: Is it too late [bitcoin]?
« Reply #597 on: January 04, 2018, 12:04:27 PM »
Most of us have at least 30 year investment horizons--and probably much more.   Is one month of data meaningful over those time frames?

Can you elaborate on this? I'm not clear on what you're trying to say.

lifeanon269 said

Quote
So far there has been no sign that the correlation in price movements between bitcoin and the rest of the crypto field will ever diverge

My response indicated that at times, price moves differently for other crypto despite bitcoin's movement. What is the relation to your statements?

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Re: Is it too late [bitcoin]?
« Reply #598 on: January 04, 2018, 12:30:11 PM »
Quote from: maizeman
This is an interesting point. However, I would argue that until we've been through at least once major recession, we don't yet have enough data to say whether either bitcoin specifically or cryptocurrencies generally are going to be correlated with other asset classes or not.

True, so far we've only really had snippets of how the markets would react such as when North Korean threats escalated a while back. We won't know for until an actual recession hits the economy and the availability of money dries up.

This is misinformation. Anyone can look at cmc, cryptocompare, cryptowat, worldcoindex, etc and see the charts that empirically show otherwise.

In the same timeframe, from last month, that btc moved 30%, some coins moved 30,000 - 110,000%.

It isn't misinformation. The key point in your rebuttal to my point is that some coins have diverged from Bitcoin. So what you're saying is that diversifying outside of bitcoin is essentially taking a gamble that you're going to pick the winners and losers correctly. The truth of the matter is that almost all of these alt-coins only have trade pairs in Bitcoin or possibly Ethereum. As has been shown time and time again, whenever Bitcoin goes down by a significant amount, all the other alt-coins do as well because panic ensues that if Bitcoin vanished, then your exit from your alt-coin position would vanish as well. So if your main concern is that Bitcoin won't be around in 5 years, then how would diversifying from Bitcoin into other alt-coins help hedge that? Until this situation changes, diversifying in other crypto-currencies makes no sense.

shadow

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Re: Is it too late [bitcoin]?
« Reply #599 on: January 04, 2018, 12:53:06 PM »
It isn't misinformation. The key point in your rebuttal to my point is that some coins have diverged from Bitcoin. So what you're saying is that diversifying outside of bitcoin is essentially taking a gamble that you're going to pick the winners and losers correctly. The truth of the matter is that almost all of these alt-coins only have trade pairs in Bitcoin or possibly Ethereum. As has been shown time and time again, whenever Bitcoin goes down by a significant amount, all the other alt-coins do as well because panic ensues that if Bitcoin vanished, then your exit from your alt-coin position would vanish as well. So if your main concern is that Bitcoin won't be around in 5 years, then how would diversifying from Bitcoin into other alt-coins help hedge that? Until this situation changes, diversifying in other crypto-currencies makes no sense.

All coins are in the same crypto market, so most will similiarly mimic movements of up and down. However, this does not mean they will move in tandem percentage-wise with btc. Let's expand 'some' to many 'many'. We've seen this with many newer crypto. It will become increasingly harder and harder for larger marketcaps to make increases, but the newer, promising crypto should have larger returns in the same timesets.

Also, other trading-pairs have emerged and are on the rise. Btc's position and reliance as a trading pair is decreasing, especially when coinbase/gdax starts offering more crypto and more exchanges start offering different trading-pairs.

As for what coin to speculate on, do your due diligence. This is where risk analysis comes into play, and crypto enthusiasts need to understand what they are buying, what has fundamentals, what has strongest chance to survive crashes, how to decrease risk, etc.