Author Topic: Is it too late [bitcoin]?  (Read 77515 times)

ChpBstrd

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Re: Is it too late [bitcoin]?
« Reply #350 on: December 15, 2017, 10:04:40 AM »

lifeanon269

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Re: Is it too late [bitcoin]?
« Reply #351 on: December 15, 2017, 11:36:14 AM »
I just wanted to add some info to the discussion about "backdoors" with regard to bitcoin.

The only way anyone can ever spend bitcoin that you own is to be able to sign a transaction from an UTXO using the associated private key. Even if proof-of-work were compromised (51% attack), they would still need to be able to compose and sign a transaction with the private key associated with a UTXO. If you're not reusing bitcoin addresses after spending from them (which you shouldn't be), then you shouldn't have to worry about double spending in the event of a (highly unlikely) 51% attack and you also won't have to worry about your public keys being exposed for bitcoin addresses that still contain funds.

The question then becomes, how well is your private key protected from attack, given a known bitcoin address? To understand that, you have to understand how bitcoin addresses are composed.

Bitcoin addresses are made up of the public key that is first hashed with SHA256 and then it is hashed with RIPEMD160. That result is then hashed twice with SHA256 and the first 4-bytes are used as a checksum and appended to the previous RIPEMD160 hash. This checksum prevents people from mistyping in a bitcoin address and sending bitcoin to an invalid address where it would be permanently lost. A version number is prefixed to this payload and then the prefix+RIPEMD160hash+checksum is then run through Base58check encoding. This encoding is the same type of encoding as Base64 encoding except it omits several characters such as "O,0,I,l" so that bitcoin addresses avoid characters that are difficult to determine when various fonts are used to display them.

It is a pretty clever use of hashing and encoding to not only provide security for the public key being used, but to also make it easy for people to type in bitcoin addresses and not worry about making a mistake and losing funds.

One of the important things to understand about this is that because the public key is hashed twice with two different hashing algorithms, there would need to be a significant compromise in both of those algorithms (SHA256 and RIPEMD160) in order to lead to a compromise in the actual underlying public key used for that bitcoin address. If you aren't able to determine what the public key is, then it is impossible to determine what the private key is for that bitcoin address as well. If you can't determine the private key, then there is no way for anyone to be able to spend any of the funds that are sent to that bitcoin address.

This is why bitcoin is such a secure method of transacting. Because it is a push mechanism for conducting transactions and because of the techniques that are used for protecting that push mechanism (digital signatures+hashing), it makes it nearly impossible for a set of circumstances to arise that would lead to a fundamental compromise in the way that private/public keys are secured.

This is why it comes down to: protect your private key and your funds are most assuredly protected. Without your private or public key, there really isn't any way for anyone to compromise it otherwise. The idea that anyone would have a "backdoor" in any of this is completely unfounded.

ChpBstrd

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Re: Is it too late [bitcoin]?
« Reply #352 on: December 15, 2017, 01:17:00 PM »
If it is so safe, why is it constantly getting hacked? (And yes, intermediaries/wallets are parts of the system too.)

If it's not a bubble, why does it look like every other bubble?


If it's not a bubble, what is the fair market value of one coin? What would cause that to change? At what price would you sell everything tomorrow?

aspiringnomad

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Re: Is it too late [bitcoin]?
« Reply #353 on: December 15, 2017, 01:24:53 PM »
If it's not a bubble, why am I getting ads on the MMM forum for a free crypto masterclass from this dork? ;)

ILikeDividends

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Re: Is it too late [bitcoin]?
« Reply #354 on: December 15, 2017, 01:29:23 PM »
If it's not a bubble, why am I getting ads on the MMM forum for a free crypto masterclass from this dork? ;)
Because he knows it's a bubble, and doesn't dare touch it with his own money.

Just like every other get-rich-quick internet "Guru," he'll rack up profits "teaching" you how to do something he never even heard of until last week.

His bread is buttered by suckers, rather than by practicing what he preaches.

I'll bet you a ten-spot to a doughnut that his, "free Masterclass," is nothing more than a long list of glowing testimonials and a standard marketing pitch for his, "Super Duper Double Top Secret Advanced Class," for "only" $597 $297, marked down just for those who order today.
« Last Edit: December 15, 2017, 01:46:30 PM by ILikeDividends »

Tonyahu

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Re: Is it too late [bitcoin]?
« Reply #355 on: December 15, 2017, 01:31:08 PM »
If it is so safe, why is it constantly getting hacked? (And yes, intermediaries/wallets are parts of the system too.)

If it's not a bubble, why does it look like every other bubble?

If it's not a bubble, what is the fair market value of one coin? What would cause that to change? At what price would you sell everything tomorrow?

How much would you pay for value that can be moved anywhere in the world with a low fee, fast speed and is completely permission-less and immune to censorship and seizure? There is nothing like that currently in place, the only comparison can be Gold but Gold is incredibly difficult to move and store.

dj

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Re: Is it too late [bitcoin]?
« Reply #356 on: December 15, 2017, 01:33:32 PM »
I'm interested in bitcoin. I'm 26. Should I go through Vanguard to buy it if I decided I wanted to? Or is an app a better option?

I literally would put only what I don't care to lose and leave it there for 2-4 weeks and see what happens.

lifeanon269

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Re: Is it too late [bitcoin]?
« Reply #357 on: December 15, 2017, 01:46:30 PM »
If it is so safe, why is it constantly getting hacked? (And yes, intermediaries/wallets are parts of the system too.)

No, Bitcoin isn't constantly getting hacked and no, intermediaries and wallets are not a part of the system. That's like saying that the internet is getting hacked because of some schmuck's Wordpress website was hacked because they were using an outdated version. There is no more obligation to using any given service or wallet in order to use Bitcoin as there is to running Wordpress for a website.

Wallets and intermediaries are services built on top of Bitcoin, they're not Bitcoin. When choosing to use Bitcoin, you can choose to use various services and wallets and your decision to use any given service will be based on your own risk assessment as to whether or not you want to expose yourself to any of those services and tools that are built on top of Bitcoin. All these services are aimed at providing additional ease of use and features above and beyond what bitcoin provides. It goes without saying that any additional complexity beyond the Bitcoin protocol itself will add security risks just like any of the myriad application services that are built on top of any of the base layer protocols that make up the internet adds security risks. It pays to do proper research into the various applications built on top of Bitcoin and the security risks associated with them. If you want the ultimate level of security, then running a full Bitcoin node gets you as close to the Bitcoin blockchain as you can get.

lifeanon269

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Re: Is it too late [bitcoin]?
« Reply #358 on: December 15, 2017, 02:08:39 PM »
If it's not a bubble, why does it look like every other bubble?

The problem I have when people try to line up bitcoin's price rise in comparison to other past historical bubble is that bitcoin's price rise came from a value of $0. No other historical bubble came from a starting price of $0. They were all established markets that became greatly skewed and out of balance for various reasons. This is why they were bubbles because of the fact that their rise above the previous market equilibrium was so extraordinary. Bitcoin also has a completely restricted supply that has no means of reacting to demand, unlike every other bubble on that list.

Have you ever looked what the price of bitcoin looks like on a logarithmic scale? See for yourself: https://blockchain.info/charts/market-price?showDataPoints=false&show_header=true&daysAverageString=1&timespan=all&scale=1&address=

That is probably a better way at historically looking at the price of bitcoin given the fact that it was a bootstrapped currency that originated from a starting price of $0. How else in the world would you expect a restricted supply currency to become widely used without it going parabolic on a linear scale? Even if that adoption took place over the course of several decades (which is unlikely for digital technology), it would still look parabolic given the kind of drastic value differences in the starting and end points at hand.

Telecaster

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Re: Is it too late [bitcoin]?
« Reply #359 on: December 15, 2017, 02:17:29 PM »
How much would you pay for value that can be moved anywhere in the world with a low fee, fast speed and is completely permission-less and immune to censorship and seizure? There is nothing like that currently in place, the only comparison can be Gold but Gold is incredibly difficult to move and store.

Damn near nothing. 

GuitarStv

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Re: Is it too late [bitcoin]?
« Reply #360 on: December 15, 2017, 02:20:23 PM »
If it's not a bubble, why does it look like every other bubble?

The problem I have when people try to line up bitcoin's price rise in comparison to other past historical bubble is that bitcoin's price rise came from a value of $0. No other historical bubble came from a starting price of $0. They were all established markets that became greatly skewed and out of balance for various reasons. This is why they were bubbles because of the fact that their rise above the previous market equilibrium was so extraordinary. Bitcoin also has a completely restricted supply that has no means of reacting to demand, unlike every other bubble on that list.

Have you ever looked what the price of bitcoin looks like on a logarithmic scale? See for yourself: https://blockchain.info/charts/market-price?showDataPoints=false&show_header=true&daysAverageString=1&timespan=all&scale=1&address=

That is probably a better way at historically looking at the price of bitcoin given the fact that it was a bootstrapped currency that originated from a starting price of $0. How else in the world would you expect a restricted supply currency to become widely used without it going parabolic on a linear scale? Even if that adoption took place over the course of several decades (which is unlikely for digital technology), it would still look parabolic given the kind of drastic value differences in the starting and end points at hand.

I guess we're not counting the pre-bubble phase of bitcoin from 2009 to mid 2013, and the 2014 buildup and drop.

Telecaster

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Re: Is it too late [bitcoin]?
« Reply #361 on: December 15, 2017, 02:22:04 PM »
I'm interested in bitcoin. I'm 26. Should I go through Vanguard to buy it if I decided I wanted to? Or is an app a better option?

I literally would put only what I don't care to lose and leave it there for 2-4 weeks and see what happens.

Sweet Jesus.  ^ This is how we know we are in bubble. 

dj

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Re: Is it too late [bitcoin]?
« Reply #362 on: December 15, 2017, 02:24:57 PM »
You're welcome!

ILikeDividends

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Re: Is it too late [bitcoin]?
« Reply #363 on: December 15, 2017, 02:26:05 PM »
If it's not a bubble, why does it look like every other bubble?

The problem I have when people try to line up bitcoin's price rise in comparison to other past historical bubble is that bitcoin's price rise came from a value of $0. No other historical bubble came from a starting price of $0.
It is truly astonishing that you would define a bubble based on whether the asset ever had a starting price of $0; even more astonishing that you would actually state that position in a public forum.

But, ok, I'll play.

How tulips came to the Netherlands - and even saved lives
http://www.dw.com/en/how-tulips-came-to-the-netherlands-and-even-saved-lives/a-40208176
Quote
In the 16th century, Ogier Ghiselin de Busbecq was serving as the ambassador of the Habsburg monarchy to the Ottoman Empire. While visiting Turkish sultan Suleiman the Magnificant, a fan of tulips, he was given some bulbs to take back to Vienna.

De Busbecq then passed the tulip bulbs on to his friend, Flemish botanist Charles de l'Écluse, the prefect to the emperor's garden in Vienna.
When d'Écluse left Vienna to teach at a university in Leiden, Netherlands, he brought the bulbs along and planted them there.
Starting as a mere gift, tulip bulbs flourished, and then became the bubble that sets the standard for every bubble ever since.

So I suppose you reject the notion that there ever was a tulip bubble, since it came to the Netherlands by way of a (free) gift?  I really don't know what other conclusion to draw from your statement.
« Last Edit: December 15, 2017, 02:44:22 PM by ILikeDividends »

lifeanon269

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Re: Is it too late [bitcoin]?
« Reply #364 on: December 15, 2017, 02:26:58 PM »
I guess we're not counting the pre-bubble phase of bitcoin from 2009 to mid 2013, and the 2014 buildup and drop.

What do you mean? That's the whole point of looking at it from a logarithmic scale. It shows how the previous historical rises in the price of bitcoin were much more astronomical in relativity than compared to now.

lifeanon269

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Re: Is it too late [bitcoin]?
« Reply #365 on: December 15, 2017, 02:30:04 PM »
It is truly astonishing that you would define a bubble based on whether the asset ever had a starting price of $0.

Where did I define a bubble as whether or not it ever had a starting price of $0? Don't put words in my mouth.

GuitarStv

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Re: Is it too late [bitcoin]?
« Reply #366 on: December 15, 2017, 02:33:45 PM »
I guess we're not counting the pre-bubble phase of bitcoin from 2009 to mid 2013, and the 2014 buildup and drop.

What do you mean? That's the whole point of looking at it from a logarithmic scale. It shows how the previous historical rises in the price of bitcoin were much more astronomical in relativity than compared to now.

You were saying that the starting price of bitcoin before the bubble phase was 0$.  I was pointing out that for the first four years or so, bitcoin wasn't 0$ and wasn't in a bubble.

ILikeDividends

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Re: Is it too late [bitcoin]?
« Reply #367 on: December 15, 2017, 02:37:47 PM »
It is truly astonishing that you would define a bubble based on whether the asset ever had a starting price of $0.

Where did I define a bubble as whether or not it ever had a starting price of $0? Don't put words in my mouth.

Um, here:

If it's not a bubble, why does it look like every other bubble?

The problem I have when people try to line up bitcoin's price rise in comparison to other past historical bubble is that bitcoin's price rise came from a value of $0. No other historical bubble came from a starting price of $0.
 
That was your answer to a question asking you to explain why bitcoin isn't a bubble.

Silly me, that's what I assumed you actually thought.
« Last Edit: December 15, 2017, 02:46:24 PM by ILikeDividends »

runbikerun

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Re: Is it too late [bitcoin]?
« Reply #368 on: December 15, 2017, 02:40:21 PM »
It is truly astonishing that you would define a bubble based on whether the asset ever had a starting price of $0.

Where did I define a bubble as whether or not it ever had a starting price of $0? Don't put words in my mouth.

"The problem I have when people try to line up bitcoin's price rise in comparison to other past historical bubble is that bitcoin's price rise came from a value of $0."

There may be some incredibly narrow semantic needle to be threaded here, but under any non-tortured reading of the above sentence, you're saying that it doesn't make sense to compare Bitcoin to historical bubbles because Bitcoin started from zero. From there, it is an extremely short journey to the conclusion that you think the start from zero means we're not dealing with a bubble. Like I said, there may be a very narrow and specific reading of what you said that doesn't imply that you think a starting point of zero means it's not a bubble, but to nine out of ten readers that's the conclusion that would be drawn.

maizeman

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Re: Is it too late [bitcoin]?
« Reply #369 on: December 15, 2017, 03:16:17 PM »
I guess we're not counting the pre-bubble phase of bitcoin from 2009 to mid 2013, and the 2014 buildup and drop.

What do you mean? That's the whole point of looking at it from a logarithmic scale. It shows how the previous historical rises in the price of bitcoin were much more astronomical in relativity than compared to now.

You were saying that the starting price of bitcoin before the bubble phase was 0$.  I was pointing out that for the first four years or so, bitcoin wasn't 0$ and wasn't in a bubble.

I'm underlying the key word here. You're saying bitcoin is in a bubble today. Which I completely agree with given the behavior of prices in 2017, and the fact that all the discussion I hear about it in non-geeky venues is focused solely on the price increase, not on actual use cases. 

Others are saying that bitcoin, itself, is a bubble, which would mean that has no underlying utility at all, which I disagree with because I do think it, or similar cyptocurrencies, do provide some utility to our society.

lifeanon269

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Re: Is it too late [bitcoin]?
« Reply #370 on: December 15, 2017, 03:31:18 PM »
Quote
The problem I have when people try to line up bitcoin's price rise in comparison to other past historical bubble is that bitcoin's price rise came from a value of $0.

For clarification, this response is not me defining whether an asset or investment is in a bubble based on whether or not it ever had a starting price of $0. That's what ILikeDividends claimed, but that's not what I meant. To put it more clearly, the key part of that statement that was missed was the "in comparison" portion. In other words, looking at bubbles relative to each other simply based on the prices of the underlying in each given bubble is a complete failure in analysis. A $0 starting point is not a defining characteristic of what makes a bubble or not, that's absolutely true, we're not in disagreement there. But, it makes no sense to compare bubbles simply on the merits of their prices without understanding the underlying forces in the market behind those prices.

This is why looking at the price of bitcoin on a logarithmic scale is so important. You could've easily taken a snapshot of bitcoin's price at numerous points along the way and it would yield a similar curve to match up to historical bubbles just like the above chart showed. Yet, doing so wouldn't give you any indicator at all as to whether or not you're dealing with a bubble in bitcoin or any other asset for that matter. For example, you could've taken a snapshot starting in Jan 2012 when it had a starting price of $4 and then had "today's" price on that graph be Jan 2014 where it had a price of around $1000. That's a multiplier of 250x and it would've dwarfed every bubble on that chart. In otherwords, this chart skews data historically simply based on arbitrary prices without regard to what determines those prices in the market.

ILikeDividends

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Re: Is it too late [bitcoin]?
« Reply #371 on: December 15, 2017, 03:42:32 PM »
I guess we're not counting the pre-bubble phase of bitcoin from 2009 to mid 2013, and the 2014 buildup and drop.

What do you mean? That's the whole point of looking at it from a logarithmic scale. It shows how the previous historical rises in the price of bitcoin were much more astronomical in relativity than compared to now.

You were saying that the starting price of bitcoin before the bubble phase was 0$.  I was pointing out that for the first four years or so, bitcoin wasn't 0$ and wasn't in a bubble.

I'm underlying the key word here. You're saying bitcoin is in a bubble today. Which I completely agree with given the behavior of prices in 2017, and the fact that all the discussion I hear about it in non-geeky venues is focused solely on the price increase, not on actual use cases. 

Others are saying that bitcoin, itself, is a bubble, which would mean that has no underlying utility at all, which I disagree with because I do think it, or similar cyptocurrencies, do provide some utility to our society.
While I wouldn't disagree that stating "bitcoin is in a bubble" would be more grammatically correct than stating "bitcoin is a bubble," but I would argue that the latter expression shouldn't be taken as anything more than a less-than-perfect version of the former expression.

Personally, I don't think it refers to any utility it might have. E.g., if I referred to "tulip mania" as the "tulip bubble," would you spend any time puzzling over how a tulip could BE a bubble?

But if it's possible to find common ground here, I would at least agree that, "bitcoin is a bubble," is a nonsensical statement, if taken too literally.
« Last Edit: December 15, 2017, 03:47:06 PM by ILikeDividends »

Telecaster

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Re: Is it too late [bitcoin]?
« Reply #372 on: December 15, 2017, 03:43:21 PM »
Quote
The problem I have when people try to line up bitcoin's price rise in comparison to other past historical bubble is that bitcoin's price rise came from a value of $0.

For clarification, this response is not me defining whether an asset or investment is in a bubble based on whether or not it ever had a starting price of $0. That's what ILikeDividends claimed, but that's not what I meant. To put it more clearly, the key part of that statement that was missed was the "in comparison" portion. In other words, looking at bubbles relative to each other simply based on the prices of the underlying in each given bubble is a complete failure in analysis. A $0 starting point is not a defining characteristic of what makes a bubble or not, that's absolutely true, we're not in disagreement there. But, it makes no sense to compare bubbles simply on the merits of their prices without understanding the underlying forces in the market behind those prices.


Okay.  So what is the market force driving the rise in bitcoin?  Is it:

1) People are clamoring to buy and sell stuff with bitcoin therefore driving demand? Or,

2)  People are buying bitcoin hoping to participate in future price increases?




waltworks

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Re: Is it too late [bitcoin]?
« Reply #373 on: December 15, 2017, 03:54:50 PM »
It can be simultaneously true that bitcoin (and other cryptos) are massively overvalued/well into bubble territory, AND that some of them (which may or may not be extant today) will be someday useful for making transactions.

If I were a big crypto guy I'd be *furious* about the bubble. It makes it hard/impossible to actually buy things, and it runs the risk of discrediting the whole enterprise after the inevitable collapse such that Goldman Sachs' or Chase's take on the blockchain is the one that ends up getting widely used.

-W

maizeman

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Re: Is it too late [bitcoin]?
« Reply #374 on: December 15, 2017, 04:29:40 PM »
Waltworks and ILikeDividends, I think we are in fact in agreement here.

Indexer

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Re: Is it too late [bitcoin]?
« Reply #375 on: December 15, 2017, 04:47:23 PM »
Going to repeat my earlier questions and see if anyone pro-bitcoin will bite.

Is anyone using it to buy legal goods and services?

I imagine there are a few, but do we have any data on the frequently?

If the answer is no, which I assume it is, then bitcoin has no future. I get the very strong impression it is only be traded back and worth between speculators and that no one is actually using it... outside of money laundering and buying drugs.

maizeman

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Re: Is it too late [bitcoin]?
« Reply #376 on: December 15, 2017, 04:58:22 PM »
Is anyone using it to buy legal goods and services?

Yes, I have used it to buy legal goods from overseas. If transactions fees don't come way back down from their current prices in the mid-$20 I'm not going to ever again though (although I might try some other cryptocurrency instead at some point in the future).

Quote
I imagine there are a few, but do we have any data on the frequently?

To the best of my knowledge there isn't any good data on specifically legal usage frequency. Bitpay says they are on track to process approx. $1 billion worth of bitcoin payments. That's almost certainly all payments for legal goods and services, but who knows whether that's 1% of the the total volume being used for actual payments, or 10% or 50%.

sherr

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Re: Is it too late [bitcoin]?
« Reply #377 on: December 15, 2017, 05:09:10 PM »
AND that some of them (which may or may not be extant today) will be someday useful for making transactions.

This is an undervalued point. There are already today crytocurrencies that are better than Bitcoins for any particular use-case. You can transfer value worldwide for cheaper and faster with any of them. So then what is Bitcoin's long-term valuation? Nothing. The only thing driving the prices and continued use is speculation and momentum. There will come a day when bitcoin transactions are too slow or too expensive or too hard compared to something else, and everyone will jump ship to the other thing. And then the same thing will happen to that and they'll jump ship to the next thing.

I'm sure that there are some long-term use-cases that will make cryptocurrencies stick around. But the long-term value of any particular cryptocurrency will always be zero, and people who jump  in to the middle of a price spike will loose their shirts when the bubble pops. Cryptocurrencies and Blockchain as a *technology* I think has some staying power. Any individual implementation is transient.

ILikeDividends

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Re: Is it too late [bitcoin]?
« Reply #378 on: December 15, 2017, 05:13:03 PM »
AND that some of them (which may or may not be extant today) will be someday useful for making transactions.

This is an undervalued point. There are already today crytocurrencies that are better than Bitcoins for any particular use-case. You can transfer value worldwide for cheaper and faster with any of them. So then what is Bitcoin's long-term valuation? Nothing. The only thing driving the prices and continued use is speculation and momentum. There will come a day when bitcoin transactions are too slow or too expensive or too hard compared to something else, and everyone will jump ship to the other thing. And then the same thing will happen to that and they'll jump ship to the next thing.

I'm sure that there are some long-term use-cases that will make cryptocurrencies stick around. But the long-term value of any particular cryptocurrency will always be zero, and people who jump  in to the middle of a price spike will loose their shirts when the bubble pops. Cryptocurrencies and Blockchain as a *technology* I think has some staying power. Any individual implementation is transient.
One could argue that this is now a historical fact, rather than mere speculation about the future.

'Bitcoin Jesus' is 'really, really concerned' about the future of the digital currency
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/12/11/bitcoin-jesus-is-really-really-concerned-about-the-future-of-the-digital-currency.html

Since this guy, AKA Roger Ver, reportedly turned $25K into $244 million buying into bitcoin at a dollar, I would dare say that he speaks from a pretty strong position of authority, and he seems to agree with your points, exactly as you stated them.
« Last Edit: December 15, 2017, 05:40:57 PM by ILikeDividends »

WhiteTrashCash

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Re: Is it too late [bitcoin]?
« Reply #379 on: December 15, 2017, 05:22:09 PM »
It may be too late to get into bitcoin investing, but it's never too late to get into baseball card investing. I have a Ken Griffey Jr. rookie card that I'm willing to part with. Cheap.

ILikeDividends

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Re: Is it too late [bitcoin]?
« Reply #380 on: December 15, 2017, 05:24:55 PM »
It may be too late to get into bitcoin investing, but it's never too late to get into baseball card investing. I have a Ken Griffey Jr. rookie card that I'm willing to part with. Cheap.
Cheap?  Ok, I'll bid $18,000.  Going once, going twice . . .

(BTW, what is a baseball card, what is a rookie card, and who the heck is Ken Griffey Jr?)
« Last Edit: December 15, 2017, 05:29:03 PM by ILikeDividends »

lifeanon269

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Re: Is it too late [bitcoin]?
« Reply #381 on: December 15, 2017, 05:42:01 PM »
Is anyone using it to buy legal goods and services?

I imagine there are a few, but do we have any data on the frequently?

If the answer is no, which I assume it is, then bitcoin has no future.

I use bitcoin for all my purchases. Granted, probably about 95% of my purchases are made off-chain through a payment provider, but I do make many purchases with bitcoin as on-chain transactions for a few legal services that I use that justify the on-chain transaction costs (which are about $4-6 for me at the moment).

I suppose I don't understand the emphasis on the necessity for bitcoin to be used for everyday legal goods and services to justify its existance. Bitcoin has use cases that extend well beyond paying for your coffee (remittance, censorship resistant store of value, international payments, programmability, irreversible transactions, etc). In fact, I'd argue that a proof-of-work crypto-currency like bitcoin's last use case should be coffee purchases. We already have plenty of payment technologies that can provide services such as that without requiring the security that a decentralized censorship resistant proof-of-work payment network provides. For the most part, fast and cheap transactions don't require that level of security. Therefore, requiring the full proof-of-work of the most secure payment network on the planet (Bitcoin) is not required. This is why side chain solutions for scaling are being introduced for bitcoin and why intermediary payment providers or other less secure crypto-currencies can offer better "coffee payment services" than on-chain bitcoin transactions can provide. That being said, the fact that people are paying anywhere from $4-$15 for on-chain bitcoin transactions shows that the network provides value to the people looking to transact on it. So if you're assuming that bitcoin has no future because there aren't enough coffee cups being purchased with it, then I'm afraid you miss the entire point of Bitcoin.

waltworks

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Re: Is it too late [bitcoin]?
« Reply #382 on: December 15, 2017, 05:45:52 PM »
It may be too late to get into bitcoin investing, but it's never too late to get into baseball card investing. I have a Ken Griffey Jr. rookie card that I'm willing to part with. Cheap.

I'll trade you all my copies of X-men #1. With all the different covers. Best investment ever! They're printing 7 million and maybe 100,000 people want to actually read it, it's an instant collector's item!

-W

maizeman

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Re: Is it too late [bitcoin]?
« Reply #383 on: December 15, 2017, 06:06:17 PM »
I suppose I don't understand the emphasis on the necessity for bitcoin to be used for everyday legal goods and services to justify its existance. Bitcoin has use cases that extend well beyond paying for your coffee (remittance, censorship resistant store of value, international payments, programmability, irreversible transactions, etc). In fact, I'd argue that a proof-of-work crypto-currency like bitcoin's last use case should be coffee purchases. We already have plenty of payment technologies that can provide services such as that without requiring the security that a decentralized censorship resistant proof-of-work payment network provides. For the most part, fast and cheap transactions don't require that level of security. Therefore, requiring the full proof-of-work of the most secure payment network on the planet (Bitcoin) is not required. This is why side chain solutions for scaling are being introduced for bitcoin and why intermediary payment providers or other less secure crypto-currencies can offer better "coffee payment services" than on-chain bitcoin transactions can provide.

The problem isn't that there are some use cases that can still work with $20 transaction fees. The problem is that once those other cyptocurrencies start getting a lot more real world use for things like buying cups of coffee where transaction fees should really be a few cents at most to be competitive, it's hard to see why those new more cost effective cyptocurrencies couldn't also replace bitcoin for the use cases where people would be willing to pay a $20 transaction fee. (Because who wouldn't rather pay $0.02 than $20, all things being equal?).

lifeanon269

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Re: Is it too late [bitcoin]?
« Reply #384 on: December 15, 2017, 06:29:19 PM »
The problem isn't that there are some use cases that can still work with $20 transaction fees. The problem is that once those other cyptocurrencies start getting a lot more real world use for things like buying cups of coffee where transaction fees should really be a few cents at most to be competitive, it's hard to see why those new more cost effective cyptocurrencies couldn't also replace bitcoin for the use cases where people would be willing to pay a $20 transaction fee. (Because who wouldn't rather pay $0.02 than $20, all things being equal?).

I'll argue the opposite of that. As I said, there are already plenty of other crypto-currencies and payment systems out there that can be used for buying cups of coffee. This misunderstands the value that the Bitcoin proof-of-work network provides. No other currency has found a way to provide the decentralized security and censorship resistance that the Bitcoin network can provide while at the same time being able to scale to meet the global demand that a POS system requires. The truth of the matter is that POS payments don't require that level of security and so therefore it makes no sense to sacrifice the one thing that makes Bitcoin unique (decentralized censorship resistance provided by proof-of-work). This is why the Lightning Network is such a novel concept. It allows for massive scalability (millions of tx/sec) without requiring any proof-of-work, but can still settle back to the same secure blockchain when needed. Another solution could be to possibly utilize atomic swaps between another crypto-currency that can handle higher volume, but isn't as decentralized or use the same secure proof-of-work Bitcoin provides.

You can only choose two, unless you can break the laws of physics:
1) Fast, cheap on-chain txs
2) Secure, censorship-resistant txs
3) Widespread adoption

ILikeDividends

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Re: Is it too late [bitcoin]?
« Reply #385 on: December 15, 2017, 06:35:22 PM »
The problem isn't that there are some use cases that can still work with $20 transaction fees. The problem is that once those other cyptocurrencies start getting a lot more real world use for things like buying cups of coffee where transaction fees should really be a few cents at most to be competitive, it's hard to see why those new more cost effective cyptocurrencies couldn't also replace bitcoin for the use cases where people would be willing to pay a $20 transaction fee. (Because who wouldn't rather pay $0.02 than $20, all things being equal?).

I'll argue the opposite of that. As I said, there are already plenty of other crypto-currencies and payment systems out there that can be used for buying cups of coffee. This misunderstands the value that the Bitcoin proof-of-work network provides. No other currency has found a way to provide the decentralized security and censorship resistance that the Bitcoin network can provide while at the same time being able to scale to meet the global demand that a POS system requires. The truth of the matter is that POS payments don't require that level of security and so therefore it makes no sense to sacrifice the one thing that makes Bitcoin unique (decentralized censorship resistance provided by proof-of-work). This is why the Lightning Network is such a novel concept. It allows for massive scalability (millions of tx/sec) without requiring any proof-of-work, but can still settle back to the same secure blockchain when needed. Another solution could be to possibly utilize atomic swaps between another crypto-currency that can handle higher volume, but isn't as decentralized or use the same secure proof-of-work Bitcoin provides.

You can only choose two, unless you can break the laws of physics:
1) Fast, cheap on-chain txs
2) Secure, censorship-resistant txs
3) Widespread adoption
Apart from you, and maybe 100 other people, who actually knows what this means, or even cares?

I can wholly appreciate why someone in Venezuela or China would, out of desperation, use bitcoin to "stache" (pun intended) their wealth in a presumptuously safer place, but I doubt any of them would understand, or have even the slightest appreciation for any merits (if any actually exist, net net) for what you just said.

They are desperate to preserve their wealth, and would doubtless choose the baseball card option, if they thought that was a more viable choice.
« Last Edit: December 15, 2017, 06:47:10 PM by ILikeDividends »

lifeanon269

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Re: Is it too late [bitcoin]?
« Reply #386 on: December 15, 2017, 06:44:04 PM »
Apart from you, and maybe 100 other people, who actually know what this means, or even cares?

I can wholly see why someone in Venezuela or China would want to use bitcoin to "stache" (pun intended) their wealth in a safer place, but I doubt any of them would understand, or have even the slightest appreciation for any merits (if any exist) for what you just said.

You don't seem to be giving humans that much credit. I'm pretty sure if you asked someone what a URL was back in the early days of the internet, you'd probably get a lot of blank stares as well.

ILikeDividends

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Re: Is it too late [bitcoin]?
« Reply #387 on: December 15, 2017, 06:49:00 PM »
Apart from you, and maybe 100 other people, who actually know what this means, or even cares?

I can wholly see why someone in Venezuela or China would want to use bitcoin to "stache" (pun intended) their wealth in a safer place, but I doubt any of them would understand, or have even the slightest appreciation for any merits (if any exist) for what you just said.

You don't seem to be giving humans that much credit. I'm pretty sure if you asked someone what a URL was back in the early days of the internet, you'd probably get a lot of blank stares as well.
That pretty much makes my point.  Bitcoin is a newborn babe, still wailing away in the infirmary, as compared to URLs and the internet.

(I give humans the credit they have earned.  After all, I kind of qualify as a member of that same category)
« Last Edit: December 15, 2017, 06:54:32 PM by ILikeDividends »

lifeanon269

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Re: Is it too late [bitcoin]?
« Reply #388 on: December 15, 2017, 06:56:20 PM »
That pretty much makes my point.  Bitcoin is a newborn babe, still wailing away in the hospital, as compared to URLs and the internet.

(I give humans the credit they have earned.  After all, I kind of qualify as a member of that same category)

If your point was that bitcoin is a newborn babe, in response to what in regard to my post does that argument apply?

ILikeDividends

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Re: Is it too late [bitcoin]?
« Reply #389 on: December 15, 2017, 07:04:30 PM »
That pretty much makes my point.  Bitcoin is a newborn babe, still wailing away in the hospital, as compared to URLs and the internet.

(I give humans the credit they have earned.  After all, I kind of qualify as a member of that same category)

If your point was that bitcoin is a newborn babe, in response to what in regard to my post does that argument apply?

I'm sure it was just an oversight that you "accidentally" edited out your comment that I replied to, so I'll help you out there; just 'cause I'm a good guy at heart.  Hint: look for the bold text I've added to your comment.  Therein lies the answer to your latest question.

Apart from you, and maybe 100 other people, who actually know what this means, or even cares?

I can wholly see why someone in Venezuela or China would want to use bitcoin to "stache" (pun intended) their wealth in a safer place, but I doubt any of them would understand, or have even the slightest appreciation for any merits (if any exist) for what you just said.

You don't seem to be giving humans that much credit. I'm pretty sure if you asked someone what a URL was back in the early days of the internet, you'd probably get a lot of blank stares as well.

Given the proper context, my reply should now make a little more sense to you:
Quote
That pretty much makes my point.  Bitcoin is a newborn babe, still wailing away in the infirmary, as compared to URLs and the internet.

(I give humans the credit they have earned.  After all, I kind of qualify as a member of that same category)

No need to thank me.  I'll just consider this my good deed for the day.
« Last Edit: December 15, 2017, 07:17:39 PM by ILikeDividends »

lifeanon269

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Re: Is it too late [bitcoin]?
« Reply #390 on: December 15, 2017, 07:17:26 PM »
I'm sure it was just an oversight that you neglected to include your comment that I replied to, so I'll help you out there; just 'cause I'm a good guy at heart.  Hint: look for the bold text I've added to your comment.  Therein lies the answer to your latest question.

Debating you is painful sometimes, lol.

I originally posted about Bitcoin's proof-of-work security stating in Reply #384:

Quote
I'll argue the opposite of that. As I said, there are already plenty of other crypto-currencies and payment systems out there that can be used for buying cups of coffee. This misunderstands the value that the Bitcoin proof-of-work network provides. No other currency has found a way to provide the decentralized security and censorship resistance that the Bitcoin network can provide while at the same time being able to scale to meet the global demand that a POS system requires.

In response to this, in Reply #385 you said:
Quote
Apart from you, and maybe 100 other people, who actually knows what this means, or even cares?

To which I responded with the URL comment.

You then responded in Reply #388 with:
Quote
That pretty much makes my point.  Bitcoin is a newborn babe, still wailing away in the infirmary, as compared to URLs and the internet.

To which I asked:

Quote
If your point was that bitcoin is a newborn babe, in response to what in regard to my post does that argument apply?

So again, where in my original response (Reply #384) does bitcoin being a "newborn babe" apply?

ILikeDividends

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Re: Is it too late [bitcoin]?
« Reply #391 on: December 15, 2017, 07:22:27 PM »
I'm sure it was just an oversight that you neglected to include your comment that I replied to, so I'll help you out there; just 'cause I'm a good guy at heart.  Hint: look for the bold text I've added to your comment.  Therein lies the answer to your latest question.

Debating you is painful sometimes, lol.

I originally posted about Bitcoin's proof-of-work security stating in Reply #384:

Quote
I'll argue the opposite of that. As I said, there are already plenty of other crypto-currencies and payment systems out there that can be used for buying cups of coffee. This misunderstands the value that the Bitcoin proof-of-work network provides. No other currency has found a way to provide the decentralized security and censorship resistance that the Bitcoin network can provide while at the same time being able to scale to meet the global demand that a POS system requires.

In response to this, in Reply #385 you said:
Quote
Apart from you, and maybe 100 other people, who actually knows what this means, or even cares?

To which I responded with the URL comment.

You then responded in Reply #388 with:
Quote
That pretty much makes my point.  Bitcoin is a newborn babe, still wailing away in the infirmary, as compared to URLs and the internet.

To which I asked:

Quote
If your point was that bitcoin is a newborn babe, in response to what in regard to my post does that argument apply?

So again, where in my original response (Reply #384) does bitcoin being a "newborn babe" apply?
I didn't even know we were debating something.  I merely expressed (and then unsuccessfully attempted to explain) the point of an opinion.

However, if you regard this a debate, then I will rest my case on statements I've already made, and formally withdraw, with the undisputed understanding that my opinion was not understood by you.

Giving you the benefit of the doubt, I will naturally assume that you wouldn't have agreed with my opinion, even if you had understood it.
« Last Edit: December 15, 2017, 08:00:44 PM by ILikeDividends »

thenextguy

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Re: Is it too late [bitcoin]?
« Reply #392 on: December 15, 2017, 07:53:29 PM »
It may be too late to get into bitcoin investing, but it's never too late to get into baseball card investing. I have a Ken Griffey Jr. rookie card that I'm willing to part with. Cheap.

Sorry dude, the baseball card bubble ended years ago.

shadow

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Re: Is it too late [bitcoin]?
« Reply #393 on: December 15, 2017, 07:55:09 PM »
I'll argue the opposite of that. As I said, there are already plenty of other crypto-currencies and payment systems out there that can be used for buying cups of coffee. This misunderstands the value that the Bitcoin proof-of-work network provides. No other currency has found a way to provide the decentralized security and censorship resistance that the Bitcoin network can provide while at the same time being able to scale to meet the global demand that a POS system requires. The truth of the matter is that POS payments don't require that level of security and so therefore it makes no sense to sacrifice the one thing that makes Bitcoin unique (decentralized censorship resistance provided by proof-of-work). This is why the Lightning Network is such a novel concept. It allows for massive scalability (millions of tx/sec) without requiring any proof-of-work, but can still settle back to the same secure blockchain when needed. Another solution could be to possibly utilize atomic swaps between another crypto-currency that can handle higher volume, but isn't as decentralized or use the same secure proof-of-work Bitcoin provides.

Criticisms against lightning network:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UYHFrf5ci_g&feature=youtu.be&repost
https://www.reddit.com/r/btc/comments/7jnr31/the_lightning_network_is_not_at_alpha_release/
https://www.reddit.com/r/btc/comments/64de93/basic_questions_about_the_lightning_network/

Also, bitcoin core is less secure than bitcoin cash. The segwit change to signature validation added an additional point of risk.

Quote
You can only choose two, unless you can break the laws of physics:
1) Fast, cheap on-chain txs
2) Secure, censorship-resistant txs
3) Widespread adoption

I choose all 3 and a proof-of-stake crypto.

shadow

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Re: Is it too late [bitcoin]?
« Reply #394 on: December 15, 2017, 08:00:06 PM »
Since bitcoin cash and bitcoin core share the same pow algorithm, if there is ever an exodus of mining power, due to bitcoin core's adjustment time, it has far greater systemic risk to very, very slow transactions leading to potentially severe consequences.

lifeanon269

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Re: Is it too late [bitcoin]?
« Reply #395 on: December 15, 2017, 08:33:55 PM »
Criticisms against lightning network:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UYHFrf5ci_g&feature=youtu.be&repost
https://www.reddit.com/r/btc/comments/7jnr31/the_lightning_network_is_not_at_alpha_release/
https://www.reddit.com/r/btc/comments/64de93/basic_questions_about_the_lightning_network/

Also, bitcoin core is less secure than bitcoin cash. The segwit change to signature validation added an additional point of risk.

Quote
You can only choose two, unless you can break the laws of physics:
1) Fast, cheap on-chain txs
2) Secure, censorship-resistant txs
3) Widespread adoption

I choose all 3 and a proof-of-stake crypto.

I certainly agree that there are some valid criticisms against the lightning network (ie, channel monitoring), but make no mistake it is a legitimate scaling solution that can handle thousands, if not millions, of transactions/sec with out requiring proof-of-work being it. I watched the video that you posted regarding the lightning network and there were a lot of myths spouted about the lightning network in it and bitcoin in general (stealing bitcoins, centralization, Satoshi's vision>Gavin, etc). The Lightning Network has been successfully tested (on mainnet) amongst several clients for compatibility and therefore the link you posted with regards to the development stage it is in is pointless and doesn't really make an effort to critique the network on any merit.

Please explain to me (technically) how bitcoin core is less secure than bitcoin cash? SegWit resolved transaction malleability which was a legitimate security concern. By having the transaction idenifier no longer take into account the signature, an attack who modifies the signature cannot also modify the transaction identifier. Just blindly saying that SegWit is an additional point of risk without explaining that point of risk is a faulty argument against it. On top of that, Bitcoin's network is much more decentralized compared to Bcash, both by hash rate and by node count/location. Considering the fact that a vast majority of bcash's hashrate is controlled by a single entity, it is an extremely centralized currency. Its nodes are also much more centralized when compared to Bitcoin cores. This decentralization across all aspects is what provides the censorship resistance that is required of a proof-of-work network.

Finally, how would it ever be possible to scale, on-chain, a proof-of-work system that can process millions of transactions per second. Give the fact that 1MB blocks can process about 6 transactions per second, in order to process transactions on the order of millions of transactions per second, that'd require blocks on the order of terabytes in size. There is simply no way you can propogate blocks of that size and have them reach all the necessary nodes around the world every 10 minutes. It isn't possible. Secondary solutions are required, whether it is atomic swaps with non-proof-of-work currencies (which Bcash can't do because it doesn't have SegWit) or something like the Lightning Network.

shadow

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Re: Is it too late [bitcoin]?
« Reply #396 on: December 15, 2017, 09:46:52 PM »
I certainly agree that there are some valid criticisms against the lightning network (ie, channel monitoring), but make no mistake it is a legitimate scaling solution that can handle thousands, if not millions, of transactions/sec with out requiring proof-of-work being it. I watched the video that you posted regarding the lightning network and there were a lot of myths spouted about the lightning network in it and bitcoin in general (stealing bitcoins, centralization, Satoshi's vision>Gavin, etc). The Lightning Network has been successfully tested (on mainnet) amongst several clients for compatibility and therefore the link you posted with regards to the development stage it is in is pointless and doesn't really make an effort to critique the network on any merit.

We'll see how lightning network play outs; I'm neutral about it.

Quote
Please explain to me (technically) how bitcoin core is less secure than bitcoin cash? SegWit resolved transaction malleability which was a legitimate security concern. By having the transaction idenifier no longer take into account the signature, an attack who modifies the signature cannot also modify the transaction identifier. Just blindly saying that SegWit is an additional point of risk without explaining that point of risk is a faulty argument against it. On top of that, Bitcoin's network is much more decentralized compared to Bcash, both by hash rate and by node count/location. Considering the fact that a vast majority of bcash's hashrate is controlled by a single entity, it is an extremely centralized currency. Its nodes are also much more centralized when compared to Bitcoin cores. This decentralization across all aspects is what provides the censorship resistance that is required of a proof-of-work network.

In the original bitcoin, the way a coin is transferred is taking the prior signature and the next user's public key, and hashing that. Miners saw this data and updated the utxo to the ledger. The original bitcoin was defined as a chain of digital signatures, and accompanying that was a longstanding economic model base on being able to verify the signatures. Segwit removes miners ability to 'witness' the signatures. It changed the economics and weakened the security model. In segwit, signatures have no value; the lack of witnessing a signature can allow malicious miners to redirect transactions to their own address. This, in addition to pruning and increasingly rewarding segwit transactions, creates a situation of new risk.

Here's a more in-depth article can about segwit risk: https://calvinayre.com/2017/06/19/bitcoin/risks-segregated-witness-opening-door-mining-cartels-undermine-bitcoin-network/ 

Quote
Finally, how would it ever be possible to scale, on-chain, a proof-of-work system that can process millions of transactions per second. Give the fact that 1MB blocks can process about 6 transactions per second, in order to process transactions on the order of millions of transactions per second, that'd require blocks on the order of terabytes in size. There is simply no way you can propogate blocks of that size and have them reach all the necessary nodes around the world every 10 minutes. It isn't possible. Secondary solutions are required, whether it is atomic swaps with non-proof-of-work currencies (which Bcash can't do because it doesn't have SegWit) or something like the Lightning Network.

That's what we're about to find out in 2018. Plasma aims to achieve millions of transactions per second onchain; and it will be implemented in omg; which will be initially launched on tendermint. Omg will be a modularized blockchain platform. From the tendermint website:

"Thus far, all blockchains “stacks” (such as Bitcoin) have had a monolithic design. That is, each blockchain stack is a single program that handles all the concerns of a decentralized ledger; this includes P2P connectivity, the “mempool” broadcasting of transactions, consensus on the most recent block, account balances, Turing-complete contracts, user-level permissions, etc.

Using a monolithic architecture is typically bad practice in computer science. It makes it difficult to reuse components of the code, and attempts to do so result in complex maintanence procedures for forks of the codebase. This is especially true when the codebase is not modular in design and suffers from “spaghetti code”.

Another problem with monolithic design is that it limits you to the language of the blockchain stack (or vice versa). In the case of Ethereum which supports a Turing-complete bytecode virtual-machine, it limits you to languages that compile down to that bytecode; today, those are Serpent and Solidity.

In contrast, our approach is to decouple the consensus engine and P2P layers from the details of the application state of the particular blockchain application. We do this by abstracting away the details of the application to an interface, which is implemented as a socket protocol."

1 second transactions and thousands of transactions-per-second capability to start, further facilitated by network advancements (faster internet, faster propagation, increase in processing power, etc).


sherr

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Re: Is it too late [bitcoin]?
« Reply #397 on: December 15, 2017, 11:55:52 PM »
AND that some of them (which may or may not be extant today) will be someday useful for making transactions.

This is an undervalued point. There are already today crytocurrencies that are better than Bitcoins for any particular use-case. You can transfer value worldwide for cheaper and faster with any of them. So then what is Bitcoin's long-term valuation? Nothing. The only thing driving the prices and continued use is speculation and momentum. There will come a day when bitcoin transactions are too slow or too expensive or too hard compared to something else, and everyone will jump ship to the other thing. And then the same thing will happen to that and they'll jump ship to the next thing.

I'm sure that there are some long-term use-cases that will make cryptocurrencies stick around. But the long-term value of any particular cryptocurrency will always be zero, and people who jump  in to the middle of a price spike will loose their shirts when the bubble pops. Cryptocurrencies and Blockchain as a *technology* I think has some staying power. Any individual implementation is transient.
One could argue that this is now a historical fact, rather than mere speculation about the future.

'Bitcoin Jesus' is 'really, really concerned' about the future of the digital currency
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/12/11/bitcoin-jesus-is-really-really-concerned-about-the-future-of-the-digital-currency.html

Since this guy, AKA Roger Ver, reportedly turned $25K into $244 million buying into bitcoin at a dollar, I would dare say that he speaks from a pretty strong position of authority, and he seems to agree with your points, exactly as you stated them.

I have noticed that lifeanon suddenly "magically" becomes extremely active about some other topic whenever this point is raised. Funny that. It's almost like he's merely a troll who has a vested interest in Bitcoin (specifically) being successful for as long as possible.

runbikerun

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Re: Is it too late [bitcoin]?
« Reply #398 on: December 16, 2017, 01:25:59 AM »
Quote
The problem I have when people try to line up bitcoin's price rise in comparison to other past historical bubble is that bitcoin's price rise came from a value of $0.

For clarification, this response is not me defining whether an asset or investment is in a bubble based on whether or not it ever had a starting price of $0. That's what ILikeDividends claimed, but that's not what I meant. To put it more clearly, the key part of that statement that was missed was the "in comparison" portion. In other words, looking at bubbles relative to each other simply based on the prices of the underlying in each given bubble is a complete failure in analysis. A $0 starting point is not a defining characteristic of what makes a bubble or not, that's absolutely true, we're not in disagreement there. But, it makes no sense to compare bubbles simply on the merits of their prices without understanding the underlying forces in the market behind those prices.

This is why looking at the price of bitcoin on a logarithmic scale is so important. You could've easily taken a snapshot of bitcoin's price at numerous points along the way and it would yield a similar curve to match up to historical bubbles just like the above chart showed. Yet, doing so wouldn't give you any indicator at all as to whether or not you're dealing with a bubble in bitcoin or any other asset for that matter. For example, you could've taken a snapshot starting in Jan 2012 when it had a starting price of $4 and then had "today's" price on that graph be Jan 2014 where it had a price of around $1000. That's a multiplier of 250x and it would've dwarfed every bubble on that chart. In otherwords, this chart skews data historically simply based on arbitrary prices without regard to what determines those prices in the market.

I know this was intended as an explanation of how bitcoin isn't in a bubble, but to me it reads as confirmation that bitcoin has never been anything except a bubble. Logarithmic growth by itself isn't necessarily a guarantee that something is in a bubble (although it's a useful indicator), but logarithmic growth for years on end is hard to classify as anything except a bubble. Your argument regarding logarithmic growth feels a lot like someone whipping out a PowerPoint presentation during an evacuation to explain that this isn't an emergency, the building has always been on fire.

maizeman

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Re: Is it too late [bitcoin]?
« Reply #399 on: December 16, 2017, 07:08:51 AM »
I know this was intended as an explanation of how bitcoin isn't in a bubble, but to me it reads as confirmation that bitcoin has never been anything except a bubble.

Hey, Ilikedividends? Statements like the one above are why I spend time clarifying the difference between say that something is in a bubble and that something is a bubble. ;-)