Author Topic: Investment Advice-Really Dumbed Down Please!  (Read 6960 times)

I Love Cake

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Investment Advice-Really Dumbed Down Please!
« on: October 08, 2012, 02:59:10 PM »
So, I've been reading MMM for quite some time and although I'm a black belt frugalista I suck lemons when it comes to investing.

Both dh and I are risk adverse so that may throw a wrench into our early retirement plan. Because, really, can you retire when all your cash is 'scared-ly' tucked into bank savings accounts?

I'm Canadian so would really love a smarty Canuck to help me out

I have most of my RRSP in GICs (bad bad but chickennnnn) my RPP is low risk. And we have a whole S#!t load in savings in ING and PC Financial (we also max out our TFSA but again-just savings accts)

Sooooo....should I bite the bullet and throw some dough into high risk ventures? Stocks seem so scary for a cash coward like me. What if we lose everything????

Mutual funds-I do contribute monthly into a med risk fund but pull it out every few years and stick it into a GIC just in case the the bottom drops out. This is inside my RRSP

I know we'll never be rich and I'm ready to suck it up MMM style and take a risk

So, what should we do?

Stats: I'm 46 with two young kids at home (I've always been a late bloomer) kids are 6 and 8. Dh is a SAHD right now (we figure in a year or two I'll be home and he'll get a job). Currently I earn a pretty good income-plenty for our family and enough to sock away a good portion of it

We have zero debt. We live in a very expensive city in Canada We're both very frugal. But with my precarious job future and dh's skills are about as good as being a blacksmith (print) we're not looking at earning a lot of dough in the future

Soooooooooo....with job loses looming is it wise to stick our savings into high risk or even medium risk ventures? Or should we play it safe and just keep it in our bank savings acct?

help

lauren_knows

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Re: Investment Advice-Really Dumbed Down Please!
« Reply #1 on: October 08, 2012, 03:29:44 PM »
I don't want to offer specific advice quite yet, but think of it this way:  Have you done the math on retiring that is often thrown around here? If your family does well on $36,000/yr, but you're only saving in ING and very-low-risk bonds (what, 2% max?), you need a LOT more cash to retire completely.

Most of the math thrown around here suggests that you withdraw from your nest egg at a rate of 3-4% to ensure that the market will keep your nest egg growing long enough for you to survive on it until death.  This is a combination of withdrawing the interest gained AND the principal (sometimes).  This all assumes the typical market gains of ~7%.  If you are essentially sticking all your investments in 2% investments, you might have to double or triple the amount you need, since that money isn't making money for you.  You're losing out to inflation every year.   $36,000/yr at 3.5% withdrawal rate, would require ~$1.02M, for reference.

By not "taking a risk" with the stock market, you are actually risking your own retirement (whether it is getting there in the first place and/or sustaining it for the rest of your life)

I Love Cake

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Re: Investment Advice-Really Dumbed Down Please!
« Reply #2 on: October 08, 2012, 03:35:35 PM »
Thanks bo! But can you really ever be guaranteed 7%? Can't that 7% plummet to -7% at any given time? And shouldn't we be in low risk when we are on the edge of retiring and also when we are retired. I've read that when we are 5-10 years to retirement our investments should be in low risk so you don't have to worry about losing half your investments due to the volatility of high risk investments

So, to earn 7% yearly until you kick it you'd have to stay in high risk-doesn't that scare you?

You're right that we'll never be able to retire early at our pathetic interest rate. I just want to try to grow a pair and take that risk

How do you sleep soundly at night when your money may vanish?

gonzy

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Re: Investment Advice-Really Dumbed Down Please!
« Reply #3 on: October 08, 2012, 05:48:59 PM »
One of the ways I overcame the fear of investing was to develop a theme and then to investigate companies which would profit in the event the theme was correct. One of my earlier themes was that internet companies were extremely overvalued and would correct. That was in march of 2000 I had no idea they would correct so much but in keeping with the philosophy I sold all internet related stocks at that time. Another theme was that housing was overvalued in 2007(homes selling for 5 to 6 times yearly income was way above the long term avg.) I sold all bank and some oil stocks at that time assuming a decrease in housing would have ripple effects throughout the economy and especially banking I was not courageous enough to do any shorting too risky for my tastes and stock options also are deemed too risky especially with the time constraints associated with them. One thing about macro calls like these are that they are fairly easy to see and it gives one some feeling of control over your investments also inspiring some confidence in your decision making. If the hands on mode is not for you then a high dividend mutual fund might be in order, they tend to outperform most funds over the long term or an index fund could give the same type of exposure. I personally dont like that route as there are times when I intentionally remain on the sidelines (when I don't have a theme or expect a correction) but it does take time and effort to "run your own money". Just to go on record one of my latest themes is war between Iran and insert best guess here. I am assuming that western hemisphere oil producers would become very popular after an event like that. Many of these companies are currently available at 6-8% yields so even if I'm wrong for a significant amount of time I'm being payed pretty hansomely to be patient. Going along with that investment is the likelihood that we are at or near peak oil keeping a high price on existing production even in the event of a global slowdown. BP was not drilling 6 miles down because they enjoyed the challenge the easy stuff is already discovered and depleting quickly. What it boils down to is to make low risk bets (oil prices will be higher in the future) on likely scenarios (will the world sit back forever and allow Iran to build nukes)with as much safety factor (high yield stocks) as possible. It works for me (my returns are 94% higher than the S&P 500 since 2000) its not difficult and you can build in your own safety factors with a little patience and thought.

FactorsOf2

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Re: Investment Advice-Really Dumbed Down Please!
« Reply #4 on: October 08, 2012, 06:02:50 PM »
How do you sleep soundly at night when your money may vanish?

How do you sleep at night when your money IS vanishing :)  At 3% inflation is steadily eroding the buying power of your hard-earned assets.  I agree with the above poster that you should do the math on what you would actually need to accumulate in order to sustain retirement with basically 0% growth - I think you will find that much scarier. 

I think you will feel much better if you read this series on the stock market: http://jlcollinsnh.wordpress.com/2012/04/15/stocks-part-1-theres-a-major-market-crash-coming-and-dr-lo-cant-save-you/ - the link is the 1st post of the series.  You should also do some digging on historical stock returns over rolling periods of different lengths - you'll find that for long-term horizons like 15 or 20 years the stock market has almost never failed to beat inflation. 

good luck!

lauren_knows

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Re: Investment Advice-Really Dumbed Down Please!
« Reply #5 on: October 08, 2012, 06:12:08 PM »
Thanks bo! But can you really ever be guaranteed 7%? Can't that 7% plummet to -7% at any given time? And shouldn't we be in low risk when we are on the edge of retiring and also when we are retired. I've read that when we are 5-10 years to retirement our investments should be in low risk so you don't have to worry about losing half your investments due to the volatility of high risk investments

So, to earn 7% yearly until you kick it you'd have to stay in high risk-doesn't that scare you?

You're right that we'll never be able to retire early at our pathetic interest rate. I just want to try to grow a pair and take that risk

How do you sleep soundly at night when your money may vanish?

Of course it can go down. But we're talking about long term growth here.  Unless you are on the precipice of retiring, you'll have many years to weather ups and downs. The last 3 years since the major crash have been phenomenal, but there will be downs.

Do you think you're within 5-10yrs of retirement?

My quick excel spreadsheet example shows that for a stash to last 40 years (you're retiring early, right?) at 4% inflation and $36k/yr spending in today's dollars, you'll need about $3.4M http://i.imgur.com/PkGDW.jpg.  This compares to just over $1M that you need at a fairly conservative 3.5% withdrawal rate if you're in the market.

I Love Cake

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Re: Investment Advice-Really Dumbed Down Please!
« Reply #6 on: October 08, 2012, 07:03:36 PM »
wow, thanks guys. Gonzy I am no where near as savvy or as bright as you-I wouldn't even know where to begin to evaluate stocks and what is likely to rise or fall. Can I just ride on your coattails-haha!

But high dividend fund is doable! I'm going to call my bank this week and have my monthly contributions move from 'safe' to 'aggressive' baby step!

Factors-thanks for the link-I'll check it out. Not sure I'm tough enough to actually buy my own stocks but I should become more educated. It's true my money is being devalued every year

And I certainly won't have 3 million when I retire!

The good news is in Canada our pension plan is guaranteed to be there for at least another 75 years (it is invested in advance) so I can count on that-it's not a lot but enough for a frugal couple like dh and me. Plus I'll have my RPP and RRSP too

My dream would be to retire before I hit 65-or just be home with my growing boys and do some small part time things that will bring in a little money. I'd LOVE to have some 'dividends' from stocks as part of my multiple income stream

okits

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Re: Investment Advice-Really Dumbed Down Please!
« Reply #7 on: October 09, 2012, 01:27:55 PM »
Hi Cake,  :)

I completely understand your worry that your investments will plummet it value if you don't keep them in something low-risk.  I worry about this, too.  There are a couple things I tell myself:

1) no course of action is without risk.  Keeping your money in ultra-safe savings accounts and GICs risks that your money will lose value over time, so that your $3 today that buys a loaf of bread will only be $3.50 in ten years, when bread is $4.

2) investing strategies can be tailored to your comfort level with regards to risk.  My ING savings account is giving me 1.3% right now, but it's guaranteed.  How about investing in something that's almost guaranteed, like a government or investment-grade corporate bond?  As an illustration (might not be the right security for you), Province of Ontario fixed-rate 10 year bonds are yielding 2.80%.  Still not spectacular, but my point is that there are still very-safe options out there that will yield a bit more than a savings account, so you get better returns without chasing an aggressive strategy that's not your comfort level.  (If the government of Ontario goes broke we'll have more pressing problems than low yields!)

Bear in mind that while bond prices fluctuate based on interest rates, if you buy and hold an individual bond until its maturity, this doesn't affect you and you know exactly what your return will be: the interest payments, and the return of your principal at the end.  It can sound scarier than it is, but it can also be this simple.

3) equities can be much more volatile, and yes, in 2008 pretty much everything took a crazy nose-dive.  You must accept that there is an element of risk to this, if you want to pursue the potential reward.  I tell myself that buying the entire stock index is about as diversified as you can get (sure, there are other investments not traded on an exchange, but for ease of use I think the index gives you great coverage.)  You don't know which stocks will be winners and which stocks will be losers, but it's okay because you bought all of them!  You definitely own whichever stocks will go up (as well as which stocks will go down.)  If you have optimism and belief that business as we know it will continue (people will continue to buy stuff, companies will continue to make stuff, and will also find better ways to make those things and invent new, better things that improve or replace the current stuff that we buy), you are investing in the idea that in the overall future the economy will grow, profits will increase, and the winners will win more than the losers lose.  It can be a bumpy ride, but if you know that going in, it makes it easier to stick to your plan.

I do recommend learning more about investing to increase your comfort level (I am only 1/10 of a mini-step ahead of you on this path, but the more I educate myself the more confident I feel), and to find a fee-based adviser to help you get started.  While the adviser will cost money, with all of your assets in GICs and savings accounts I suspect there are dramatic improvements in yield an adviser can help you make, right away, so what you pay in fees you could make back by better returns (instead of waiting to learn enough to do it completely by yourself, and your money making low returns in the meantime.)

Two MMM posts that I re-read for guidance: 

http://www.mrmoneymustache.com/2011/05/18/how-to-make-money-in-the-stock-market/

http://www.mrmoneymustache.com/2012/05/09/houses-and-stocks-are-going-up-who-cares/

Best wishes!  Let us know how you make out.
« Last Edit: October 09, 2012, 01:32:31 PM by okits »

grantmeaname

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Re: Investment Advice-Really Dumbed Down Please!
« Reply #8 on: October 09, 2012, 02:00:58 PM »
Nobody said anything about stock picking here, unless I'm suffering when it comes to reading comprehension. Unless you think you know enough to outwit professionals making generous six-figure salaries armed with incredible technology, deep analytical insight, and extraordinary training, you're better off with index funds that track the entire market than trying to pick parts of the market to hold on to. MMM's investing posts, including in part the ones just linked, give a good overview of how to invest with index funds.

I Love Cake

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Re: Investment Advice-Really Dumbed Down Please!
« Reply #9 on: October 12, 2012, 08:09:12 PM »
thanks grant and okits!

Yes, it seems diversified mutual funds are the way to go. I actually called my bank this week and became slightly more aggressive with my monthly mutual fund purchases-I had switched to ultra safe a few years ago

Thanks for the links okits and I think you are far more than 1/10th of a step in front of me-wow!! I love budgeting and love discussing how to make your money go far but when it comes to investment I become rather ostrich like

My friend who was a strong pusher of RRSPs and mutual funds now has yanked it all out. She has become very disheartened over greedy top execs taking everything and leaving shareholders with nothing-she is my layperson investment adviser so that kinda scared me off

Anddddd...anyone know Kevin O'Leary? I believe he says he will only invest in stocks that pay a dividend. Is that a popular method? Do many stocks do this? But wouldn't you be missing out on the magical compound interest if you took a dividend??

okits

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Re: Investment Advice-Really Dumbed Down Please!
« Reply #10 on: October 12, 2012, 10:38:26 PM »

Anddddd...anyone know Kevin O'Leary? I believe he says he will only invest in stocks that pay a dividend. Is that a popular method? Do many stocks do this? But wouldn't you be missing out on the magical compound interest if you took a dividend??

Heh. Kevin O'Leary. The Globe and Mail ran an article about him last week, "I'm not a billionaire but I play one on TV".

The dividend-only approach isn't uncommon, though, and it is a useful test of a business. If you're regularly paying out cash to shareholders your business isn't going to last long unless it consistently generates more cash than it pays out.  You could reinvest the dividends, and hopefully over time both the stock value and dividend rate increase (so your investments grow, and hopefully faster than inflation.  Similar to compound interest, though the results are not quite as linear as with interest.) Just like any money you receive, you can choose to invest it rather than spend it, so those dividend dollars become "little employees", also working for you.  There are mutual funds/EFTs that focus on this (Google "dividend aristocrats" as a start to reading more about this.)

And I would say you no longer qualify as an ostrich in investment matters; you are learning and taking action. Please do share your budgeting and money-stretching prowess on these forums as I and others learn a lot from hearing about other people's badassity.  :)

I Love Cake

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Re: Investment Advice-Really Dumbed Down Please!
« Reply #11 on: October 13, 2012, 07:09:53 AM »
ha okits-really? I though O'Leary was a god. I love his cut to the chase attitude (Dragon's Den is a favourite show of mine!)

I will google that-thanks. I really think this is the way I want to go. We have quite a bit of money sitting in bank accounts (groan) dh was talking about buying a rental property-I'm good with that but there are so many headaches. Maybe investing in dividend stocks/mutual funds is more prudent

For sure I can start a new thread about penny pinching! It would be fun to get other people's favourite tricks

grantmeaname

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Re: Investment Advice-Really Dumbed Down Please!
« Reply #12 on: October 13, 2012, 07:31:19 AM »
Anddddd...anyone know Kevin O'Leary? I believe he says he will only invest in stocks that pay a dividend. Is that a popular method? Do many stocks do this? But wouldn't you be missing out on the magical compound interest if you took a dividend??
Yes, it's a popular method. It's stupid, though.

The only substantial difference between dividends and capital gains in the long term is that capital gains are taxed more favorably, and dividends more unfavorably, and even that difference is miniscule. Effectively, if you're investing only in dividend stocks, you're cutting yourself off from the vast majority of the market and decreasing your differentiation, as well as increasing your sector risk by overexposing yourself to sectors like utilities that consistently pay dividends. If a company were to forgo paying a dividend, it would be worth as much more as the dividend it didn't pay-- it would just have recorded that capital gain.

To look behind the curtain and into the company, the companies that pay dividends are those whose management believe that they can't use the money in the company's operations any better than you, the shareholder, could if it were returned to you (and in fact, they must believe that there's a substantial difference, because they're willing to deal with tax inefficiency in order to get the money back into your pocket). Think about a company like Proctor and Gamble, which makes slightly modified versions of the products they've always made. With little need for R&D and only limited ways to open new markets for itself, the company can use only about 10% of its profits, and so it returns the rest for investors. Make sense?

The dividend-only approach isn't uncommon, though, and it is a useful test of a business. If you're regularly paying out cash to shareholders your business isn't going to last long unless it consistently generates more cash than it pays out.
Just like your business isn't going to last long if you can't increase earnings year after year and increase the market capitalization of the company if you don't pay dividends. There's no difference here, and there's nothing magical about paying dividends that serves as a litmus test.

simonsez

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Re: Investment Advice-Really Dumbed Down Please!
« Reply #13 on: October 15, 2012, 06:00:08 AM »
I Love Cake,

It seems riskier investments aren't for you.  How about EE government bonds?  You have to wait for them to mature (20 years), but you are guaranteed an approximate 3.5% return.  I have no idea what inflation will do and these bonds do lock you in for the full 20 to see the gains.  This is because if the prevailing interest rates aren't high enough to double your money during the 20 years you invest them, EE bonds automatically appreciate on the 20th anniversary (but if you cash in before that, you don't get the full appreciation if interest rates were low) to the amount that would be equal to your original investment.  e.g. if you spend $50 today (I'll say October 15, 2012 purchase date) on a $100 EE bond and interest rates remain lousy for years, even if it was only worth $65 or so on October 14, 2032, it would appreciate to $100 automatically on October 15, 2032 giving you an approximate 3.5% return over the 20 years.  MAJOR inflation risk but if you buy them periodically, they can turn into a stream of income down the road.  If interest rates do go back up and the EE interest rate is above 3.5%, then you can hold them for a total of 30 years.  It's not the 1980s anymore but just a suggestion for those that are risk-averse.

herisff

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Re: Investment Advice-Really Dumbed Down Please!
« Reply #14 on: October 15, 2012, 07:10:58 AM »
Cake,

please keep in mind that everyone has a different tolerance for risk. Right now, I think your tolerance is fairly low. Please read and research, and *then* choose your investment options with care and thought. It's better to think about things and then make changes, then to change and regret (some investment options hit you with a penalty if you withdraw too quickly).

But then, I'm a big believer in making changes and then letting them ride for a minimum of a year. Less cost and hassle for me overall. I like Balanced funds for my retirement plans (the options at work aren't great) and am moderately aggressive for my Roth and traditional IRAs. I'm old enough that I'm willing to take some risk but not too much.

Take a look on the forums here, I know there have been prior questions/threads on good financial/investment primers. For basic money advice, I'm a big fan of Your Money or Your Life and also All Your Worth. Read, read, and read some more. Decide for yourself how aggressive you want your investing to be - and then follow through and make those changes.

I Love Cake

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Re: Investment Advice-Really Dumbed Down Please!
« Reply #15 on: October 15, 2012, 10:57:53 AM »
thanks hersif and simon. Yes I am risk adverse. I have only changed my monthly mutual funds purchase to more aggressive. Historically, whenever that figure grew to about $20k I moved it into a safe GIC-which I may or may not continue.

20 year locked in. Man, I think I am a bit of a commitment-phobe on that. I really think interest rates will be higher than 3.5% in 20 years. And, I'd hate to lock in my dough for so long

I've talked this over with dh and told him about some of these suggestions, and we are now both talking about maybe buying an investment property-like a condo to rent out, or a small home outside of our city. But that in itself brings up all sorts of issues (maintenance, dead beat tenants, sabre tooth tigers, you know...)