Author Topic: I think I got out toooooo early :(  (Read 7981 times)

JAYSLOL

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Re: I think I got out toooooo early :(
« Reply #50 on: August 17, 2017, 10:29:45 AM »
If you're worried about timing at all . . . You've already fucked up.  Stop trying to time the market.

This.

Also,  if you ever are decided about what to do-- there is nothing wrong with buying half or selling half -- you know, split the decision.

Thats actually what I am thinking about - instead of rebuying all my original same positions back - I can actually just buy back half of the original percent of my positions (and maybe even get it a bit cheaper now than when I sold it)...

Re-buy half now.  Today.  Then dollar cost average the rest in over the next 3-6 months.  Set it to contribute weekly automatically and forget all this.  Yeah, we might be seeing corrections on the horizon, but sometimes what we see is just a mirage that leaves us stranded in the financial desert.   

dougules

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Re: I think I got out toooooo early :(
« Reply #51 on: August 17, 2017, 10:51:00 AM »
One other thing, you should think of buying stocks/mutual funds/ETFs like you were buying a business... because that's exactly what you are doing.  If you bought the corner store in your neighborhood, you wouldn't sell it 3 months later hoping to buy it back cheap a few months after that.  You would keep it and let the profits roll in.  The same logic applies to stocks since that is buying a business, too.  It's just that you're buying a piece instead of the whole thing.   The same applies to mutual funds and ETFs, too, since they're just a bundle of several stocks. 

luckystripes

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Re: I think I got out toooooo early :(
« Reply #52 on: August 17, 2017, 12:42:51 PM »
If you don't trust your hunch enough to wager 100% of your money on it, why would you trust it enough to wager 50%?

Well its cause my index funds were basically the S&P500 - which was about 60% of my total allocation - and that thing is going down right now even lower than I sold it...

I think the dollar-cost average back into the S&P500 makes some sense - especially right now... I can just get back into it little by little..
« Last Edit: August 17, 2017, 12:45:07 PM by luckystripes »

nawhite

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Re: I think I got out toooooo early :(
« Reply #53 on: August 17, 2017, 01:29:21 PM »
If you don't trust your hunch enough to wager 100% of your money on it, why would you trust it enough to wager 50%?

Well its cause my index funds were basically the S&P500 - which was about 60% of my total allocation - and that thing is going down right now even lower than I sold it...

I think the dollar-cost average back into the S&P500 makes some sense - especially right now... I can just get back into it little by little..

If you're convinced the market is going down then step up and short the market with leverage. You can't buy long term leveraged long positions that have accurate outcomes with time horizons longer than about a month (which is what all of us "buy and hold" people would need to do the same) but you certainly can buy 3/1 inverse leveraged positions that will match inverse returns for a few days.

Any time I see someone selling because "the market is about to crash" and all they do is go all cash and don't buy a 3/1 inverse ETF I just see someone pussyfooting around without strong convictions.
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Cache Stash

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Re: I think I got out toooooo early :(
« Reply #54 on: August 17, 2017, 01:32:34 PM »

I wouldn't "wager" anything.  I would "invest" everything.

Dollar cost averaging has been shown to be a loser.  The reason is the market goes up more often than not over select periods of time.  I think this would be obvious as the average return is north of 10% for the last umpteen years.  Given that, if you invest it all now or dollar cost average over time, the dollar cost average will, on average, have a higher cost basis.

YMMV



Travis

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Re: I think I got out toooooo early :(
« Reply #55 on: August 17, 2017, 05:24:21 PM »
If you don't trust your hunch enough to wager 100% of your money on it, why would you trust it enough to wager 50%?

Well its cause my index funds were basically the S&P500 - which was about 60% of my total allocation - and that thing is going down right now even lower than I sold it...

I think the dollar-cost average back into the S&P500 makes some sense - especially right now... I can just get back into it little by little..

Don't for one second analyze this as you making a good informed decision.  You haven't predicted how long this "drop" is lasting, you haven't decided what numbers are good for getting back in, and you've been waffling on what to do since you made your original post.  If you decide to buy back in for less than you sold, then congratulations you got lucky.  It's not my intention to come across as rude, but history is full of people who got lucky in the market and attributed that gut feeling to something resembling intelligence.  All of the financial "experts" predicted the Brexit vote would be an economic catastrophe for the U.K. and Europe. That drop lasted 3 days before fully recovering. Those same folks predicted Trump's election would have the economic effect Brexit was supposed to have and instead the market shot up.  Those experts got it hilariously wrong, but your feelings on the market are going to pan out?  If you're investing for your retirement, then you're investing for decades.  One wobbly week in the market doesn't even register on that scale.  It makes as much sense as spending all day walking up a mountain and that step a few hours ago where the ground was slightly wetter than another being scarred into your memory.  I didn't even know the market had a couple bad days until you mentioned it (and it wasn't really that bad).  I'm less than 10 years from FIRE and the only time I spend looking at my portfolio is when I'm adding to it each month, and then only to keep my asset allocation straight.  I watch financial news to stave off boredom in the office. You can't predict the future, don't let the "experts" on TV scare you, and don't get worked up about things you can't control.

Cache Stash

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Re: I think I got out toooooo early :(
« Reply #56 on: August 18, 2017, 07:54:46 AM »
Have you decided what to do OP?



moof

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Re: I think I got out toooooo early :(
« Reply #57 on: August 18, 2017, 04:20:02 PM »
A good friend of mine is a financial adviser.  Some of his clients trust him, and he basically gets 1% a year to annually rebalance among a few funds, gradually moving to more bonds as his clients approach their planned age.  He also has clients that call him in a panic at every blip and have him move things to bonds or cash for a while (they still pay 1% annually).  He has historical data showing that the panicky crowd does relatively poorly compared to those that trust him to buy-and-hold using the same set of funds.

Sheesh.... Some advisor he is.

Wait... are you having a go at the advisor? On face value it's the clients here who need a slap...

Are you perhaps saying the advisor should go against the clients wishes and stick to the buy and hold? That would be a dangerous precedent... Imagine if an advisor didn't switch to cash and a client lost 50% staying in equities, when the client said "I want to go in cash because I think the market will fall and I need the money for xyz in a few months"

Damn straight I am. 

The guy is collecting 1% and is supposed to put his foot down and advise his clients on how to invest properly.   If they won't follow his advice then the professional thing to do is fire his clients and let them screw things up on their own without being complicit.  Instead his conscience doesn't seem to be too bothered by the fact that in addition to passively allowing his clients to screw up their savings and investing he's adding his 1% fee on top of all of this.

"Don't call a man a fool, borrow money from him."  Or charge them 1%.

These folks are paying for a financial advisor, not a financial dictator.  If they choose to ignore his advice it is their money, so it is on them.  If he ignores their demands as to what THEIR money is sitting in and they lost money he'd almost certainly get sued.

How about we take Betterment as an example.  They would go out of business if they did not allow you to change the stocks/bonds ratio, or refuse to let you cash out.  That would be insane.

JohnSteed

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Re: I think I got out toooooo early :(
« Reply #58 on: August 18, 2017, 10:07:12 PM »
If you don't trust your hunch enough to wager 100% of your money on it, why would you trust it enough to wager 50%?

Sounds like market timing to me.

Lagom

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Re: I think I got out toooooo early :(
« Reply #59 on: August 18, 2017, 11:32:36 PM »
This thread and recent conversations with younger colleagues (mid-late 20's, I am in my mid 30's) has been my first time really experiencing a semblance of what was probably going on during the dot com boom. Most of these colleagues are tech savvy millennials who are over the moon about things like their amazing crypto currency investing strategy. They made 400% returns last month, after all, so obviously they know what they're doing! Some will eventually cash out at a fortuitous time to "lock in their gains," all the while thinking they were smarter than the rest of us, but sooner or later it's the market that will ultimately come out ahead, as it always does. I congratulate these young winners on their good luck, if not their skill, but I am still happy as a clam knowing that my sure thing path to riches will decisively beat a large majority of the not-so-fortunate suckers that are also playing the slots with their future.
« Last Edit: August 18, 2017, 11:34:53 PM by Lagom »

grettman

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Re: I think I got out toooooo early :(
« Reply #60 on: August 19, 2017, 06:01:08 AM »
OP:

You only made 7 posts thus far but I am going to assume you aren't a troll. 

Until you understand and act on then act on the advice you have been given, you need to stop investing in the markets.   

Goldielocks

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Re: I think I got out toooooo early :(
« Reply #61 on: August 20, 2017, 12:07:55 AM »
I have 10% of my assets in cash right not, and I waiting for a chance to buy stocks on sale, and not worrying about leaving the remainder as is.

I have found a greater loss from being out of the market, due to timing and missing the 1-2 day recovery, to be a greater impact than the times I just looked away.  Note, this is money I don't need for 20 years.

Finallyunderstand

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Re: I think I got out toooooo early :(
« Reply #62 on: August 21, 2017, 09:54:23 AM »
Saw the market dropped so just put $15k more into VOO.  Might do the same next week if it drops again. 

Mighty-Dollar

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Re: I think I got out toooooo early :(
« Reply #63 on: August 22, 2017, 12:53:22 AM »
I'm in my 20's
So with all this cash... what now?
Have you ever heard the phrase "when stocks fall, money runs to the safety of bonds"???
Even over the last 17 years (including the "lost decade") 40% stocks / 60% bonds was the best allocation ratio for someone not drawing money out. And you didn't miss out on that much by being 70% or 80% stocks.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=opNohVglLX0

caracarn

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Re: I think I got out toooooo early :(
« Reply #64 on: August 22, 2017, 05:09:45 AM »
I'm in my 20's
So with all this cash... what now?
Have you ever heard the phrase "when stocks fall, money runs to the safety of bonds"???
Even over the last 17 years (including the "lost decade") 40% stocks / 60% bonds was the best allocation ratio for someone not drawing money out. And you didn't miss out on that much by being 70% or 80% stocks.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=opNohVglLX0
One of the posts on the Bogle Simple Portfolio actually shows closer to 80% stock/20% bonds has best long term (10+ years) return.  That's what I used to determine my allocation when I switched everything to new holdings this year and am actually at 85%/15% because of the slight enough shift a 90/10 appeared to make weighed against my appetite for volatility as I get close to 50.

Bumperpuff

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Re: I think I got out toooooo early :(
« Reply #65 on: August 22, 2017, 10:24:17 AM »
http://www.schwab.com/public/schwab/nn/articles/Does-Market-Timing-Work

Unless you know the future, timing doesn't work. Even if you could, the marginal benefit isn't worth the risk.
Determine your AA write an investment plan, and stick to it. 

DarkandStormy

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Re: I think I got out toooooo early :(
« Reply #66 on: August 22, 2017, 02:45:36 PM »
Sheesh, a few days of >1% losses and suddenly everyone freaks the eff out.

Speaks to the lack of volatility since 11/4/16.
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DarkandStormy

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Re: I think I got out toooooo early :(
« Reply #67 on: September 01, 2017, 08:54:10 AM »
I'm in my 20's and my portfolio is still kind of young and I have yet to experience the recession on my portfolio like the parents have.

So low-and-behold - when the NK news struck yesterday - I thought this was the beginning of the correction - and I cashed out everything... So far - this year I had a good 13% gain on my portfolio - and I thought that was good enough before the correction.

Granted all these were in tax-advantaged accounts - so I don't worry about any capital gains.

I think I messed up my timing - and now I have sold all my stocks and index funds that are still going up...

So with all this cash... what now?

Should have gotten back in.  Back near record highs.
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caracarn

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Re: I think I got out toooooo early :(
« Reply #68 on: September 01, 2017, 10:04:04 AM »
OP has not resurfaced for a while and perhaps never will.

jjandjab

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Re: I think I got out toooooo early :(
« Reply #69 on: September 07, 2017, 10:10:51 AM »
OP has not resurfaced for a while and perhaps never will.

Yup cobwebs setting up in the corners... But for the OP, the 20s are definitely a good time to make mistakes like this, assuming they learn and get back in and leave it there.

Although no numbers were ever mentioned that I saw, the sad part is that these movements of 1% in the market in young persons portfolio are typically a few $100 at most... I'm glad I learned to stay the course now that small daily movements in my accounts tend tend to be in the $1000's. I still like to peek, but I'm happy I have learned not to touch.

frugalnacho

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Re: I think I got out toooooo early :(
« Reply #70 on: September 07, 2017, 10:25:37 AM »
OP has not resurfaced for a while and perhaps never will.

He's off to warn everyone not to gamble in the market.  He did and lost because the market is rigged.  He's gonna be that guy.

soccerluvof4

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Re: I think I got out toooooo early :(
« Reply #71 on: September 09, 2017, 09:10:53 AM »
Yes lucky seems to have vanished.  Perhaps spinning a bottle or picking petals of daisies to decide, "buy" "don't buy" "buy" "don't buy"

Always fascinating to watch the train wreck that is a deluded market timer.  Ah, but most of us were once where they were, so our agony to get them to see the light is so much greater......

I'm still holding onto the cash right now. whats interesting is several of my index funds and stocks are actually losing money right - if I had stayed in... its kind of like a lava field right now...

Yes, sometimes they go down.  Sometimes even for periods longer than a week.  But on the balance, they go up.  Unlike cash, which is guaranteed to lose money.

You need to get out of this short term mindset.  It's poison.







^ This or don't bother being invested because you will end up losing trying to market time.
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theolympians

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Re: I think I got out toooooo early :(
« Reply #72 on: September 09, 2017, 11:35:50 AM »
OP:

You only made 7 posts thus far but I am going to assume you aren't a troll. 

Until you understand and act on then act on the advice you have been given, you need to stop investing in the markets.

+1

TomTX

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Re: I think I got out toooooo early :(
« Reply #73 on: September 09, 2017, 07:21:12 PM »
OP needs to read this thread and note the start date:

https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/top-is-in/
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