i tried posting this over at bogleheads, but they weren't much help. i probably didn't describe the situation well enough, so i'll paste original post then add postscript:
i'm offering up my situation for review. i've searched the site and just can't seem to find specific, actionable info. here's my status:
married, early 40s, no kids
80k annual income
debt
small student loan [5k]. low interest rate and it should qualify for forgiveness soon, so not paying it off
small auto loans, but interest is less than 1%. not paying those off. if that money can make more than 1% elsewhere i'm coming out ahead.
own our home. small mortgage [about 75k], low interest 3.5%. we absolutely stole it during the down market. fair market rent is probably three or four times what we're paying for mortgage/insurance/taxes. house is worth at least 200k right now.
$40k heloc available, if needed, but we've never taken a dime from it
retirement
we max out iras every year, i max out an hsa, i also have a simple ira with match at work that i take advantage of. i know where we need to be each year for our target retirement date [20 years from now]. we are several years ahead of schedule.
wife will receive 50% of her salary as pension when she retires
savings
12 months emergency fund in cash sitting in a high interest savings account.
taxable account has almost 100k. about 60% is in VTI. 40% is cash
we sold a rental house last year, which i started legging into existing vti position. my cost basis is around $120.
here's my dilemma... i hate the idea of that cash sitting in the taxable acct. and want to put it to work. we'd also like to eventually sell our house and buy our "final" home. we are in absolutely no hurry, and frankly, at these prices i'm not a buyer. we are happy and comfortable with the possibility of being in our current place for twenty years or more but the ideal would be to wait for the next down turn [whenever that may be] and take advantage. this could be anywhere from 1, 3, 5, or 10 years from now.
i've thought about a couple scenarios:
go all in on vti. at today's price that would put my cost basis roughly at $136. more than a 5% draw down and i'm under water. if i'm looking for the type of event that will cool housing market down the market's going to see it first. not the end of the world, but maybe not ideal.
keep legging into vti. might be six of one/half dozen the other
bond exposure. i have no idea how bonds work, let alone how they will perform in a rising rate environment. if you're going to suggest this please offer some fund names and why. bnd? bsv? etc..
vwinx seems like a decent blend. could i, however, achieve it with a bond etf or mutual fund along with my existing vti position?
i know there will be a lot of calls for savings, cds, money market, etc. but i'm not interested in those. like i said, we're not looking to beat the market or make some out of line return, but we don't mind a little conservative risk [i know that's an oxymoron]. we're in a position where we don't HAVE to liquidate shares or buy a house. whenever a down turn comes, though, we'd like to be able to take advantage. we'd also like our cash working in the mean time. any help is appreciated!
here's the postscript:
just to reiterate, we are perfectly ok if we're in our current house for 20 more years. we are looking to hold this money and take advantage of any screaming opportunities that come up, be it one year from now, five years from now, ten, or twenty. at some point, the stock market and/or the housing market is going to go to shit and when it does i want to be in a position to act. no one knows when that will happen, but it will happen. in the mean time, i'm looking for the money to work for me. if we don't get the timing/opportunity i am ok with that. the earmarked money puts us that much closer to retirement, but only if it's working for us.
i'm not shooting for unrealistic gains. that is not the purpose of this money. i am, however, looking for better than savings acct. return and am willing to take more than savings account risk, but not day trading bitcoin risk. i'm trying to find the best vehicle for "more than savings acct" risk to "100% vti" risk. i was hoping someone could offer actionable ideas and why they think they are good ideas. i gave a few of my own examples with the pros and cons. i'm not married to anything. open my eyes to your best ideas and why.
thanks for the help!