Help me Time the Market . ?

[BlueHouse]

Ha!  I know, I know! 

I'm in the process of rolling over a 401k into an IRA, so my entire 401k retirement account (about 1/2 of my entire portfolio) is currently in cash. 
I had it as 50/50 stock/bond funds, which made my portfolio roughly 80/20.  Ordinarily, I would ignore everything happening in the markets/economy/upcoming interest rate raise, etc.  But we do know the Fed is raising rates.  Should I decrease my bond exposure until it's done? 

Even though I feel as if this doesn't really count as market timing due to my circumstances, as I write the above paragraph, I cannot find a way to write it without it sounding like market timing.  Should I just throw it back in and close my eyes, or should I try to ride a wave?  I'm retired now, if that matters.  I won't be buying during the ride back up.

advice?

[Rob_bob]

Since you are now retired and will not be adding new $$ going forward now would be the time to decide on your AA going forward and decide if you want to lump sum or DCA into your new AA.

[dblaace]

Ha!  I know, I know! 

I'm in the process of rolling over a 401k into an IRA, so my entire 401k retirement account (about 1/2 of my entire portfolio) is currently in cash. 
I had it as 50/50 stock/bond funds, which made my portfolio roughly 80/20.  Ordinarily, I would ignore everything happening in the markets/economy/upcoming interest rate raise, etc.  But we do know the Fed is raising rates.  Should I decrease my bond exposure until it's done? 

Even though I feel as if this doesn't really count as market timing due to my circumstances, as I write the above paragraph, I cannot find a way to write it without it sounding like market timing.  Should I just throw it back in and close my eyes, or should I try to ride a wave?  I'm retired now, if that matters.  I won't be buying during the ride back up.

advice?

I'm in the same position. I rolled over my 401k last month Right now I'm about 30/70. Target of 60/40 eventually. The only thing I've done so far is bought  a short term bond index fund but still mostly cash.  Trying to resist the temptation to do anything until the dust settles a bit then DCA in.

[talltexan]

you already know what you should do. The only difficulty is in carrying it out.

[cool7hand]

Put it back in the market asap and don't market time.

[BlueHouse]

you already know what you should do. The only difficulty is in carrying it out.

UGH.  Yes, you're right.

[drags feet and mopes over to vanguard site]

[talltexan]

Also, it's okay to go in at a less risky allocation than what you had before. You know you'll eventually be above 20% stocks, so it should be easy to jump in to at least that point immediately.

[MustacheAndaHalf]

It might be easier to buy stocks every paycheck or every month.  That will let you start small - but the important thing is to keep going.  If you want to do it all this year, you could invest 1/10th every month.  That would be about 1/20th every paycheck... or if you want to spread it over 2022-2023, you could go with 5% (1/20th) every month.  Pick a chunk, and invest that amount regularly.

[BlueHouse]

Also, it's okay to go in at a less risky allocation than what you had before. You know you'll eventually be above 20% stocks, so it should be easy to jump in to at least that point immediately.

Good point.  I did buy a few 100k on Thursday (or at least I tried).  VG received my funds, but it hasn't made it into my settlement account yet.  It appears I could buy into index funds, but not into an ETF.  We'll see if they accept my trades for the index funds.