Author Topic: help me stay strong!  (Read 542 times)

rahby1us

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help me stay strong!
« on: August 08, 2017, 08:40:35 AM »
Hey guys, all these headlines about record setting DOW close as the new daily occurrence are simultaneously making me expect a crash and also bugging me out that I'm missing out. I feel the need to buy something!

to back up, i've got about 75% Vanguard, 10% bond/misc and 15% cash. With these record setting highs i keep trying  to distract myself from what could have been, and not fall into "buying at the top." I know that's market timing, but i wanted to have some rainy day funds for when things went on sale... now it's like that will take ages and i'm getting impatient : /

This article is a good microcosm https://tinyurl.com/ycyf27h9 clickbait "CHECK OUT THESE STOCKS THAT HAVE BEEN HAMMERED" title reveals 10 companies that are trading near their 52 week highs. Maybe decent value plays, but we're not in a value stock pickers market right now.

Given that i set my strategy to save $ for that rainy day, and we're now 2 years+ removed from when i mentally committed myself to that strategy, just looking for some back up/reassurance to not get caught up in a "everything is roses" bull market (https://tinyurl.com/y7j4u98z)... or on the flip side for someone to call me out for getting caught up in my own bullshit, haha.

runewell

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Re: help me stay strong!
« Reply #1 on: August 08, 2017, 09:03:22 AM »
75% Vanguard?  You mean 75% stocks?

The market feels a bit high.  I wouldn't pull out of the market but I don't think it's wrong to be conservative and have some cash on the sidelines either.

We will all experience market downturns at some point and lose some of our gains, that is inevitable.  So don't worry about it.  Just pick an asset allocation you can live with under current conditions and try not to worry about what is out of your control.
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TheAnonOne

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Re: help me stay strong!
« Reply #2 on: August 08, 2017, 09:06:31 AM »
I've seen news articles posting how we are heading for 2700 by mid next year. Others say 20-30 pull back is in order.

That being said, you are trying to get the "optimal" return on your money, IE: buying at the bottom, or timing the market.

In reality, look at it like this-

All money you put in the market will make you more money. Will today's $$$ invested make less than money put invested in 2010? Sure, but that isn't the point. You no longer can invest in 2010.

I am still buying, monthly, however I have a bit of car debt I have focused on a bit more aggressively than in the past. The market prices MIGHT be pushing me that way, but in reality I am just sick of having it around.


Good luck!

Mr. Green

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Re: help me stay strong!
« Reply #3 on: August 08, 2017, 09:40:28 AM »
Just bought some VTSAX today! Would definitely suck to pull out and see the market climb another 8-10% next year.
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J Savvy

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Re: help me stay strong!
« Reply #4 on: August 08, 2017, 09:52:26 AM »
Stay the course, my friend! Stick to your typical investing periods (whether that be automated through pay checks or your own contributions). Don't try to time the market. Maybe we are at a peak, maybe there is room to grow - it is hard to tell.

Timing is short-term, you want to be in it for the long haul.

That said, if you feel your cash buffer isn't where you want it, now may be a good time to fill that up. However, once that is full, get back into the market. It WILL go down at some point, and then we all have great buying opportunities. But it also WILL go up again in the future.
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koshtra

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Re: help me stay strong!
« Reply #5 on: August 08, 2017, 10:05:52 AM »
Well, you're definitely trying to time the market. How are you deciding when stocks are "on sale"?

Whatever you're going to use as the trigger for buying, you should figure it out EXACTLY and WRITE IT DOWN and just follow your own instructions. When the magic numbers appear, you buy. If they haven't yet, you wait.

I don't mess with timing any more -- it's a really easy way to screw yourself over -- but if you're going to do it, get real and set real tripwires for when you're going to buy. Vagueness is your enemy. And don't read financial opinions: they're garbage. All you want to look at is the numbers. Trying to guess or "get a sense of the market" will confuse you, stress you, and eventually make you do stupid things.