Author Topic: HELP!  (Read 1959 times)

ECrew28

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HELP!
« on: April 27, 2022, 07:00:03 PM »
Ok so I bit the bullet and pulled my IRA from my financial advisor and moved everything over to Fidelity.  I am looking into the current investments, and I am just not happy with what I currently have allocated (strictly what the advisor had me in, I haven't changed anything yet).  So here is what I currently have, but I am looking for suggestions on what to do from here:

Individual Stocks:
FB
V
TWTR
ABNB
BABA
NTNX

Funds:
XLE
DGRO
EPD
IWR
TRBCX
ARKK
PRWCX
APDKX
OSMYX
TRBUX
PRFSX
GOGIX
JMGRX
JSMGX
BGEGX

I just feel like there are too many individual stocks and way too many funds.  Just would appreciate everyone's guidance. 

BlueHouse

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Re: HELP!
« Reply #1 on: April 27, 2022, 07:16:17 PM »
I once had a very complicated set of funds and stocks which didn't work out well for me at all.  I've been happy with the lazy man's portfolio:

VTSAX
VTIAX
VBTLX

It's been working for me. 
I also have another account where I have the ETF versions of VTSAX and VTIAX


Abe

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Re: HELP!
« Reply #2 on: April 27, 2022, 07:44:16 PM »
Agree with the above except don’t invest in the international fund because it performs similarly but worse than the vtsax fund. Allocate to each as you can tolerate swings in the market. I’m 90% equities, 10% bonds and 10% cash.

Frankies Girl

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Re: HELP!
« Reply #3 on: April 27, 2022, 08:51:08 PM »
Figure out what your risk levels, time range for retirement and short/med/long range goals. Investment policy statement (IPS) first.

https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Investment_policy_statement

Then figure out whether your current asset allocation remotely looks right for what you actually want out of a portfolio
 
https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Asset_allocation



If index investing (Boglehead style) appeals to you, then review this for suggestions on how to create a simple index 2, 3, or 4 fund portfolio at Fido:

https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Fidelity

IF all the gobbledy gook you posted is in an IRA, then selling off won't create a taxable event, and you can get it ship shape once you know what you want to hold.

I personally have a 3 fund couch potato portfolio at Fido, and it's been just fine. I self manage, and use low expense ratio index funds that are mentioned on the Fidelity Boglehead link above.

FLBiker

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Re: HELP!
« Reply #4 on: April 28, 2022, 07:18:17 AM »
Another vote for a three-fund portfolio a la Bogleheads.

I approached it in two steps.  First, I determined my comfort with risk.  More stocks is a wilder ride although the returns should ultimately be higher.  I'm comfortable with risk, so I started out 100% equities and have gradually transitioned to 80%/20% as I've approached FI.

Then the second step is, for equities, to decide the international %.  Personally, I just used the global market cap which is (roughly) 55% US, 45% other countries.

That's it.

If your portfolio is in a taxable account, though, you have to give thought to the tax implications of selling. If it's tax sheltered (e.g. IRA, 401K, 403B, 457B) that's a non-issue.

RWD

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Re: HELP!
« Reply #5 on: April 28, 2022, 08:02:37 AM »
I once had a very complicated set of funds and stocks which didn't work out well for me at all.  I've been happy with the lazy man's portfolio:

VTSAX
VTIAX
VBTLX

It's been working for me. 
I also have another account where I have the ETF versions of VTSAX and VTIAX

Since the OP has their investments with Fidelity the equivalent funds are:
FSKAX (or FZROX)
FTIHX (or FZILX)
FXNAX

PDXTabs

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Re: HELP!
« Reply #6 on: April 28, 2022, 09:25:49 AM »
My Fidelity account is split between FSKAX and FSGGX. I am personally global market cap weighted. People disagree on how much international to hold. Vanguard's Global equity investing: The benefits of diversification and sizing your allocation is worth a read.

cool7hand

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Re: HELP!
« Reply #7 on: April 28, 2022, 11:34:14 AM »
+1 on simplifying the portfolio

Villanelle

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Re: HELP!
« Reply #8 on: April 28, 2022, 11:55:43 AM »
+ eleventy in simplifying  The three-fund portfolio is a great place to start.  You can also google simple mutual fund portfolios and there will be many options, but that might actually be overwhelming.  There's no good reason not to stick with the basic standard.  That's a set-it-and-forget-it answer (minus occasional rebalancing, like maybe 2x per year, and only if a category is off by more than x% do you actually sell, otherwise you just adjust future contributions).  For someone who wants a solid asset allocation that they don't need to think much about, it's great. 

You would probably also benefit from doing an IPS (Investment Policy Statement).  Google for examples, and search this forum for more info, but in a nutshell, you sit down and make all the decisions you need ahead of time, so you aren't trying to do it when you are looking at scary losses or huge gains, or when you are emotional about money.  You decide where you money will go and what conditions will trigger actions. Then you just enact the plan, whether the market is up or down, whether you inherit $500k or lose $100k, whatever.  It doesn't need to be long, though some people's are.  Just enough that you make solid decisions that guide you when you otherwise might succumb to emotions. 

Scandium

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Re: HELP!
« Reply #9 on: April 28, 2022, 12:26:42 PM »
Agree with the above except don’t invest in the international fund because it performs has recently performed similarly but worse than the vtsax fund. Allocate to each as you can tolerate swings in the market.

corrected

PDXTabs

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Re: HELP!
« Reply #10 on: April 28, 2022, 12:35:32 PM »
Agree with the above except don’t invest in the international fund because it performs has recently performed similarly but worse than the vtsax fund. Allocate to each as you can tolerate swings in the market.

corrected

100%. Between January 2000 and January 2010 the SP-500, with dividends reinvested and adjusted for inflation, returned -3%.

rxmurphy

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Re: HELP!
« Reply #11 on: April 28, 2022, 02:15:06 PM »
Agree with the above except don’t invest in the international fund because it performs similarly but worse than the vtsax fund. Allocate to each as you can tolerate swings in the market. I’m 90% equities, 10% bonds and 10% cash.
New math?
Kidding aside, I agree with you on international, and to simplify overall for the OP.

FLBiker

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Re: HELP!
« Reply #12 on: April 29, 2022, 11:12:37 AM »
If OP (or anyone) wants to invest only in the US, that's certainly up to them.  Doing this, though, is effectively a bet that the next 70 (or however many) years will be the same for the US relatively to the rest of the world as the last 70.  Personally, I would not make that bet.  It may be, it may not be, I have no idea.  Hence my global market cap approach.

I don't personally see how someone could say with any certainty that the US market will continue to outperform the rest of the world indefinitely.

Abe

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Re: HELP!
« Reply #13 on: April 29, 2022, 08:24:46 PM »
Agree with the above except don’t invest in the international fund because it performs similarly but worse than the vtsax fund. Allocate to each as you can tolerate swings in the market. I’m 90% equities, 10% bonds and 10% cash.
New math?
Kidding aside, I agree with you on international, and to simplify overall for the OP.

Haha, error on my part. Should be 80% equities.

Abe

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Re: HELP!
« Reply #14 on: April 29, 2022, 08:42:58 PM »
Agree with the above except don’t invest in the international fund because it performs has recently performed similarly but worse than the vtsax fund. Allocate to each as you can tolerate swings in the market.

corrected

100%. Between January 2000 and January 2010 the SP-500, with dividends reinvested and adjusted for inflation, returned -3%.

Yet this chart: https://www.google.com/finance/quote/VTSAX:MUTF?window=MAX&comparison=MUTF%3AVTIAX

Problem is that between any two arbitrary time periods one will find a scenario where one outperformed the other.

Looking at a histogram of annual returns comparing 100% US  total market using https://portfoliocharts.com/portfolio/annual-returns/ (which I highly recommend the OP peruse in detail), the average annual real return was 8.4 +/- 17% whereas a total stock market fund excluding US and emerging countries would have had a 6.7 +/- 20% return. A fund combining US and developed except US equally would've had a 7.5 +/- 17% return.

Looking at https://portfoliocharts.com/portfolio/heat-map/ one can see a similar overall outcome.

This suggests that investments outside of the US doesn't add much for stability.

For US investors, there is also the increased risk of currency fluctuations (which to date has not been a huge issue, but is by definition a risk not faces by domestic stocks).
Another issue is that VTIAX has a 0.11% expense ratio, compared to 0.04% for VTSAX. This will cost you a small amount over the years.

Obviously things can change for the US compared to the rest of the world, but don't underestimate the instability of other countries' economies. Their governments aren't usually geared specifically to fatten the non-oligarch investing class of their societies. I understand that diversification in general is a good idea, but its seems unclear to me why we should think non-US stocks will outperform in the future.

On the other hand, one can see that economies around the world are fairly inter-related at this point, and the distinction between US and non-US stocks will decrease over time. That can then be interpreted in either way: if the distinction is arbitrary, it doesn't matter what you do and any random % allocation between US and non-US stocks will be fine. Then it's a matter of minimizing fees, etc.
« Last Edit: April 29, 2022, 08:53:37 PM by Abe »

lutorm

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Re: HELP!
« Reply #15 on: May 05, 2022, 02:43:18 PM »
Obviously things can change for the US compared to the rest of the world, but don't underestimate the instability of other countries' economies. Their governments aren't usually geared specifically to fatten the non-oligarch investing class of their societies. I understand that diversification in general is a good idea, but its seems unclear to me why we should think non-US stocks will outperform in the future.

On the other hand, one can see that economies around the world are fairly inter-related at this point, and the distinction between US and non-US stocks will decrease over time. That can then be interpreted in either way: if the distinction is arbitrary, it doesn't matter what you do and any random % allocation between US and non-US stocks will be fine. Then it's a matter of minimizing fees, etc.
I'm not sure I agree about increasing coupling given the events of the past years. I'm comfortable with the idea of trading a bit lower yield against increased diversification, even if there's not much evidence that this would have helped in the past. I also think the US economy's dominance in the world will diminish, and I'm also going to be living outside the US so I don't mind hedging the currency risk with ~25% international exposure.

PDXTabs

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Re: HELP!
« Reply #16 on: May 05, 2022, 10:27:06 PM »
Agree with the above except don’t invest in the international fund because it performs has recently performed similarly but worse than the vtsax fund. Allocate to each as you can tolerate swings in the market.

corrected

100%. Between January 2000 and January 2010 the SP-500, with dividends reinvested and adjusted for inflation, returned -3%.

Problem is that between any two arbitrary time periods one will find a scenario where one outperformed the other.

Looking at a histogram of annual returns comparing 100% US  total market using https://portfoliocharts.com/portfolio/annual-returns/ (which I highly recommend the OP peruse in detail), the average annual real return was 8.4 +/- 17% whereas a total stock market fund excluding US and emerging countries would have had a 6.7 +/- 20% return. A fund combining US and developed except US equally would've had a 7.5 +/- 17% return.

Looking at https://portfoliocharts.com/portfolio/heat-map/ one can see a similar overall outcome.

This suggests that investments outside of the US doesn't add much for stability.

It doesn't add a ton, but if you plug in 60% US, 30% ex-US developed, 10% EM over a 10 year period and compare it to a 100% US portfolio you will see less decades with negative returns.

BicycleB

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Re: HELP!
« Reply #17 on: May 11, 2022, 02:39:31 PM »
Like other posters, I agree that if these investments are in a retirement account that shelters them from tax, selling the individual stocks and replacing them with a small number of index funds is better (or index ETFs - very similar to index funds).

Using the Fidelity funds listed by a previous poster, here's an example:

FSKAX 60% (gives you a slice of the entire US stock market)
FTIHX 20% (covers international stock market)
FXNAX 20% (fund that invests in US bonds; sometimes having this gives more stability than just stocks)

In short periods like a year, anything can gain or lose a lot, but this type of setup is considered likely to be relatively efficient and safe over time. Nothing is guaranteed, but the index funds are on average steadier and safer than the individual stocks and such from the previous advisor. This year may be a roller coaster regardless, of course.



 

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