Author Topic: 2018 Stock Market Predictions  (Read 1122 times)

Louisville

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2018 Stock Market Predictions
« on: January 26, 2018, 08:57:26 AM »
Also, 2017, 2016, 2015......
Also, 2019, 2020, 2021....

http://www.nasdaq.com/article/2018-stock-market-prediction-phrase-translator-cm893195


Quote
On that basis, the most useful thing I can offer readers this week is a translation of the most commonly used phrases when predicting the performance of the stock market over the next twelve months.

The one thing we can be sure of is that one year from now we will look back and say, “Well, we didn’t see that coming…” In other words, the only predictable thing about the stock market is that it will be unpredictable. That view, however, won’t get me on TV.


For that, I need one of two things: either a big name behind me, in which case I can give a bland, generic guess at the future, or a controversial view so extreme that it will have little to no chance of ever coming about, but will generate some buzz.

Both of those approaches will be heard this week, so let’s look at them one at a time.

The Bland Generic

Phrase: “Global growth is still looking strong and the tax bill will give an immediate boost to stocks, but we are already at record highs and there will be some headwinds, so finishing the year up five to ten percent looks most likely.”

Translation: “I don’t have a clue where this is going, but on average stocks gain in the high single digits each year, so I’m going with that.”

Phrase: “After a strong year this year, every positive looks priced in and there are still risks, so ending next year flat at best or even down slightly looks most likely.”

Translation: “I don’t have a clue where this is going, but I’m smart enough to understand that averages are calculated over a number of years, so the opposite direction to this year is a safer bet.”

Whichever of these versions you hear, there is one strong underlying message to the bland, generic prediction from a boss at a big Wall Street firm or fund: ”I want to keep my very highly paid job.”

If you make a prediction in single figures in either direction, and particularly upwards, you will always have plenty of company, and being wrong along with everyone else is not that bad. You would still be wrong, of course, but nobody will really notice. Stick your neck out and make a bold prediction, however, and you will stand out, and if wrong, you will probably not get to make predictions for 2019.

The Controversial

Phrase: “Everything is coming together. The trickle-down effect from big tax cuts to corporations and the very wealthy will finally work this time, and if we can deregulate enough companies will be able to focus only on making money. It is only logical, therefore, that we will jump another twenty or thirty percent next year.”

Translation: “Most of the people watching are Republican, so embracing that party’s plans and actions will be popular and cause those that listen to not blame me when I am wrong. It we go down I will explain it away as being all because of a vast liberal conspiracy.”

Phrase: “Everything is falling apart. Trump will be impeached and all of those evil one percenters will simply burn the cash rather than allow it to trickle down, so we are close to economic collapse and a loss of only twenty percent next year will be a relief.”

Translation: “Some of the people watching are Democrat, so embracing that Party’s world view will be popular to some degree, and anyway, fear sells. If I keep saying this every year I may get moved around the Street a bit, but I will be right at some point and will then be a superstar who called the collapse, and in the meantime, when I am wrong, I will blame a vast right-wing conspiracy of the illuminati and one percenters.”

Again, there is an underlying message from both sides. For the extremists, it is in part either that they work at very small funds and want to get to the big bucks or that their job is in jeopardy after years of being on the wrong side of the safe approach and have nothing to lose by going big this time.

Either way, what they are effectively saying is, “Look at me! Look at me!”

Putting my cynicism aside for a moment, markets are unpredictable, and one year is a terrible time frame to work with. You can bet on momentum in the short term, and things will average out over decades, but a lot can happen in twelve months. Given that, whoever you choose to believe, staying flexible is always the key to success.



VoteCthulu

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Re: 2018 Stock Market Predictions
« Reply #1 on: January 26, 2018, 01:12:46 PM »
I predict that the bulls will push bacon to new highs and pork futures will double in value this year.

Heckler

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Re: 2018 Stock Market Predictions
« Reply #2 on: January 26, 2018, 06:22:34 PM »
Mmmmmm.    Bacon. 

Retire-Canada

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Re: 2018 Stock Market Predictions
« Reply #3 on: January 26, 2018, 06:31:12 PM »
I predict there will be at least 4 more 2018 prediction threads started by people that think they were the first to have the idea.

https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/2018-market-predictions/
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/prediction-next-recession-starts-late-summer-2018/

And yes I agree. All signs point to a bacon melt up. ;)
« Last Edit: January 26, 2018, 06:37:46 PM by Retire-Canada »

VoteCthulu

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Re: 2018 Stock Market Predictions
« Reply #4 on: January 26, 2018, 07:45:41 PM »
I dub this thread the 2018 bacon predition thread.

I think this is the year that pre-cooked bacon really takes off.

Mr Mark

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Re: 2018 Stock Market Predictions
« Reply #5 on: January 28, 2018, 03:31:40 AM »
The stock market is very complicated and risky, so let me look after your money for you*. I went to an Ivy League school and wear a very expensive suit to work.

*disclaimer: The value of shares and investments and the income derived from them can go down as well as up. Investors may not get back the amount they invested. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. But no matter what I'll take my piece, so just write me a cheque - I've got nothing to lose.
Mr. Mark

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Kalergie

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Re: 2018 Stock Market Predictions
« Reply #6 on: January 28, 2018, 03:38:38 AM »
The following is a good old joke. It's applicable to financial consultants as well I believe. Enjoy!

The Consultant
A shepherd was herding his flock in a remote pasture when suddenly a brand-new BMW advanced out of a dust cloud towards him.

The driver, a young man in an Armani suit, Gucci shoes, Ray Ban sunglasses and YSL tie, leans out the window and asks the shepherd, "If I tell you exactly how many sheep you have in your flock, will you give me one?"

The shepherd looks at the man, obviously a yuppie, then looks at his peacefully grazing flock and calmly answers, "Sure. Why not?"

The yuppie parks his car, whips out his Dell notebook computer, connects it to his AT&T cell phone, surfs to a NASA page on the internet, where he calls up a GPS satellite navigation system to get an exact fix on his location which he then feeds to another NASA satellite that scans the area in an ultra-high-resolution photo. The young man then opens the digital photo in Adobe Photoshop and exports it to an image processing facility in Hamburg, Germany. Within seconds, he receives an email on his Palm Pilot that the image has been processed and the data stored. He then accesses a MS-SQL database through an ODBC connected Excel spreadsheet with hundreds of complex formulas. He uploads all of this data via an email on his Blackberry and, after a few minutes, receives a response.

Finally, he prints out a full-color, 150-page report on his hi-tech, miniaturized HP LaserJet printer and finally turns to the shepherd and says, “You have exactly 1,586 sheep.”

“That’s right. Well, I guess you can take one of my sheep.” says the shepherd. He watches the young man select one of the animals and looks on amused as the young man stuffs it into the trunk of his car.

Then the shepherd says to the young man, “Hey, if I can tell you exactly what your business is, will you give me back my sheep? “

The young man thinks about it for a second and then says, “Okay, why not?”

“You’re a consultant.” says the shepherd.

“Wow! That’s correct,” says the yuppie, “but how did you guess that?”

“No guessing required.” answered the shepherd. “You showed up here even though nobody called you; you want to get paid for an answer I already knew, to a question I never asked; and you don’t know crap about my business..."

"...Now give me back my dog!"