Slate is not known for quality economic commentary, but this is the only place I've seen some context put on the inflation numbers released today.
https://slate.com/business/2021/04/inflation-is-about-to-look-freaky.html
If prices didn’t rise at all in the coming months (unlikely, but bear with me), the government’s inflation gauge will go up by 2 percent in March, 2.7 percent in April, and 2.8 percent in May, on a year-over-year basis. If the Fed is actually on target to hit its 2 percent medium-term average inflation target, the year-over-year CPI numbers will be 2.2 percent for March, then 3.1 percent for April, then 3.5 percent for May. In other words, it will look high, but it will really just be on its way back to normal.
Everywhere else I've looked makes no mention of the disinflation / deflation we experienced 12 months ago, and how that affects numbers calculated on a trailing 12 months basis and will continue affecting them for a while. They're just reporting that "everything is getting more expensive!". Thought this would be a good perspective for mustachians to consider amid the breathless headlines.
That concept is the foundation of the Fed's transitory narrative due disinflation when the pandemic started combined with high inflation caused by supply/demand imbalances that are likely temporary in nature. This is a correct argument but I thing the narrative is stretching further than the reality...i.e. inflation will continue to be a bit higher than we have all been accustomed to.
Also, the single month over last year comparison is less relevant than a year over year comparison but keep in mind that inflation was negative for April to may but then ran back up, moderated and is now running up again, energy and travel being contributors.
Date inflation rate (month / annualized / Full YoY / ex food and energy)
1/20 = .1% / 1.2% / 2.5% / 2.3%
2/20 = 0.1 / 1.2% / 2.3% / 2.4%
3/20 = -0.8% / -9.6% / 1.5% / 2.1%
4/20 = -0.4% / -4.8% / 0.3% / 1.4%
5/20 = -.1% / -1.2% / 0.1% / 1.2%
6/20 = 0.6 / 7.2% / 0.6% / 1.2%
7/20 = 0.6 / 7.2% / 1.0% / 1.6%
8/20 = 0.4 / 4.8% / 1.3% / 1.7%
9/20 = 0.2% / 2.4% / 1.4% / 1.7%
10/20 = 0.0% / 0.0% / 1.2% / 1.6%
11/20 = 0.2% / 2.4% / 1.2% / 1.6%
12/20 = 0.4% / 4.8% / 1.4% / 1.6%
1/21 = 0.3% / 3.6% / 1.4% / 1.4%
2/21 = 0.4% / 4.8% / 1.7% / 1.3%
3/21 = 0.6% / 7.2% / 2.6% / 1.6%
So from. This data it is clear that there has been and is inflation that os lower than the Fed's target but is trending higher and not because of disinflation from a year ago....the YoY numbers refute that now. Guess the question is whether or not it will indeed be transitory bc if not the Fed will have to act sooner and that will whack the markets.