Author Topic: GME deathwatch - how to profit?  (Read 73033 times)

ChpBstrd

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Re: GME deathwatch - how to profit?
« Reply #550 on: December 09, 2021, 02:40:36 PM »
GameStop shares fall as video game retailer reports widening losses in third quarter

"GameStop shares fell more than 5% in extended trading on Wednesday, after the video game retailer reported that its losses widened in the fiscal third quarter."

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/08/gamestop-gme-3q-2021-earnings.html

I wonder what investors were expecting? Profits?

jim555

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Re: GME deathwatch - how to profit?
« Reply #551 on: January 05, 2022, 06:47:10 PM »
GME $129.37 down $19.54.  Super squeeze any day now...

arebelspy

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Re: GME deathwatch - how to profit?
« Reply #552 on: January 21, 2022, 08:03:14 AM »


One thing I have said for awhile as far as predictions is that it'll hit 300 again before it hits 100 again, and I still believe that.

I was wrong.
I am a former teacher who accumulated a bunch of real estate, retired at 29, spent some time traveling the world full time and am now settled with three kids.
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secondcor521

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Re: GME deathwatch - how to profit?
« Reply #553 on: January 21, 2022, 08:35:55 AM »


One thing I have said for awhile as far as predictions is that it'll hit 300 again before it hits 100 again, and I still believe that.

I was wrong.

Somewhere a while ago I asked you for a testable prediction, which IIRC turned out to fail.  I was wondering whether you had chosen to disregard that, or if you had modified your theory, or something else.  Just curious.

Psychstache

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Re: GME deathwatch - how to profit?
« Reply #554 on: January 21, 2022, 09:10:26 AM »


One thing I have said for awhile as far as predictions is that it'll hit 300 again before it hits 100 again, and I still believe that.

I was wrong.

I appreciate the accountability, honesty, and transparency.

ChpBstrd

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Re: GME deathwatch - how to profit?
« Reply #555 on: January 21, 2022, 10:27:23 AM »


One thing I have said for awhile as far as predictions is that it'll hit 300 again before it hits 100 again, and I still believe that.

I was wrong.

Then is it time to short GME? E.g. Bear Spreads?

What do you think the odds are that people will re-tread this old meme? "Visible" short interest is down to under 14% now.

DaTrill

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Re: GME deathwatch - how to profit?
« Reply #556 on: January 21, 2022, 11:33:28 AM »
Even shorts can get crushed in these markets.  There will be vicious dead cat bounces which can take out any new short without HUGE buffer.  This one is a good lesson to sit and watch the demise.  Maybe send a few bards to Apes.  Saw a personalized license plate last week "AMC Ape 3", should have taken a picture as a sign of a selloff is coming. 

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: GME deathwatch - how to profit?
« Reply #557 on: January 22, 2022, 01:47:30 AM »
I was wondering if inflation and higher bond yields would hurt meme stocks.

Vanguard Growth (VUG) -13% YTD
GME -28%
AMC -34%

At some point in 2022 I expect markets to get too pessimistic, and stop punishing growth stocks.  I guess then we'll find out if retail investors will keep these stocks going or not.

DaTrill

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Re: GME deathwatch - how to profit?
« Reply #558 on: January 23, 2022, 01:46:55 PM »
I was wondering if inflation and higher bond yields would hurt meme stocks.

Vanguard Growth (VUG) -13% YTD
GME -28%
AMC -34%

At some point in 2022 I expect markets to get too pessimistic, and stop punishing growth stocks.  I guess then we'll find out if retail investors will keep these stocks going or not.

These and many other stocks have fallen into margin call zone.  Once retail investors start getting market calls, the bottom falls out.  Brokers have LOC, usually hedged against these dislocations, but retail traders are not and get washed out.  it's also dangerous to short as short cover rallies after gains can be violent (PTON this week).  GME probably won't go BK as company can sell stock to idiots to pay bonds, but stock will be near $0.  GME will slowly liquidate other assets to pay salaries and drift into obscurity.         

Blender Bender

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Re: GME deathwatch - how to profit?
« Reply #559 on: January 23, 2022, 02:21:06 PM »
I was wondering if inflation and higher bond yields would hurt meme stocks.

Vanguard Growth (VUG) -13% YTD
GME -28%
AMC -34%

At some point in 2022 I expect markets to get too pessimistic, and stop punishing growth stocks.  I guess then we'll find out if retail investors will keep these stocks going or not.

Please do not put VUG next to GME or AMC. VUG i not a meme (disclaimer: i do not hold any VUG at this moment).

BigMoneyJim

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Re: GME deathwatch - how to profit?
« Reply #560 on: January 23, 2022, 03:03:37 PM »
These and many other stocks have fallen into margin call zone.  Once retail investors start getting market [you mean margin? - BMJ] calls, the bottom falls out.  Brokers have LOC, usually hedged against these dislocations, but retail traders are not and get washed out.

Are you saying the retail apes are leveraged long? That was not my impression.

But it *is* an incredibly interesting thing to watch to see what happens with Diamond Hands HODLers as the whole market goes down. (If it does, but as one of my favorite thread tells us: top is in.)

I'm also suddenly incredibly curious to see if meme stocks and crypto will be shown to be correlated.

Editing to add:
Quote
GME probably won't go BK as company can sell stock to idiots to pay bonds, but stock will be near $0.  GME will slowly liquidate other assets to pay salaries and drift into obscurity.

I think this claim is about as raised-eyebrow-worthy as the "GME is worth the current price" arguments. Gamestop is sill a brick and mortar business; a shrinking one, but "to the moon" predictions aside, they seem to be controlling debt and costs as their business model declines. Last I looked, which admittedly has been a few months at least.
« Last Edit: January 23, 2022, 03:09:06 PM by BigMoneyJim »

EscapeVelocity2020

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Re: GME deathwatch - how to profit?
« Reply #561 on: January 23, 2022, 05:42:35 PM »
...
Editing to add:
Quote
GME probably won't go BK as company can sell stock to idiots to pay bonds, but stock will be near $0.  GME will slowly liquidate other assets to pay salaries and drift into obscurity.

I think this claim is about as raised-eyebrow-worthy as the "GME is worth the current price" arguments. Gamestop is sill a brick and mortar business; a shrinking one, but "to the moon" predictions aside, they seem to be controlling debt and costs as their business model declines. Last I looked, which admittedly has been a few months at least.

Stonks either go to the moon or to zero, there is no such thing as going sideways for, like, weeks on end...

DaTrill

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Re: GME deathwatch - how to profit?
« Reply #562 on: January 24, 2022, 02:02:35 PM »
These and many other stocks have fallen into margin call zone.  Once retail investors start getting market [you mean margin? - BMJ] calls, the bottom falls out.  Brokers have LOC, usually hedged against these dislocations, but retail traders are not and get washed out.

Are you saying the retail apes are leveraged long? That was not my impression.

But it *is* an incredibly interesting thing to watch to see what happens with Diamond Hands HODLers as the whole market goes down. (If it does, but as one of my favorite thread tells us: top is in.)

I'm also suddenly incredibly curious to see if meme stocks and crypto will be shown to be correlated.

Editing to add:
Quote
GME probably won't go BK as company can sell stock to idiots to pay bonds, but stock will be near $0.  GME will slowly liquidate other assets to pay salaries and drift into obscurity.

I think this claim is about as raised-eyebrow-worthy as the "GME is worth the current price" arguments. Gamestop is sill a brick and mortar business; a shrinking one, but "to the moon" predictions aside, they seem to be controlling debt and costs as their business model declines. Last I looked, which admittedly has been a few months at least.

Margin calls.  There is massive leverage in the system and gets ugly when it unwinds.  These rallies are most likely margin call money being brought into the market and shorts covering.   

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: GME deathwatch - how to profit?
« Reply #563 on: January 25, 2022, 06:11:09 AM »
I was wondering if inflation and higher bond yields would hurt meme stocks.

Vanguard Growth (VUG) -13% YTD
GME -28%
AMC -34%

At some point in 2022 I expect markets to get too pessimistic, and stop punishing growth stocks.  I guess then we'll find out if retail investors will keep these stocks going or not.
Please do not put VUG next to GME or AMC. VUG i not a meme (disclaimer: i do not hold any VUG at this moment).
I left out an assumption I'll explain, but first some bad news for you: VUG holds AMC shares.  So the meme stock AMC is actually a part of Vanguard Growth Index.
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMC/holders?p=AMC

What I left unsaid is that growth stocks are hurt most by inflation.  Meme stocks don't even have their future earnings to rely on - they only have WSB.  So growth stocks (VUG) are hit by inflation, and it appears meme stocks (AMC, GME) are hit even harder by inflation.  That's why VUG was there, to show the impact of inflation YTD.

BigMoneyJim

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Re: GME deathwatch - how to profit?
« Reply #564 on: January 25, 2022, 09:25:23 AM »
Is AMC still a meme stock? I haven't been paying attention. At what point do GME, AMC, and BB cease to be meme stocks?

GME clearly to my eyes is still priced as a "meme stock" in that the reason for its current price is due to either or both a belief that it is being secretly and massively held short and that its currently-nebulously-defined future (not current) business model will pay off.

AMC is not at its low, but it's almost back to early 2019 levels. I haven't bothered to look, but if they're still in business I presume they have cut lots of costs and otherwise made adjustments since then.

Looking at BB...I can't really tell just by looking at the graph if it's still meme-inflated or not. I'm still holding 10 shares (or was it 20?) of BB because I don't mind letting it sit ignored for years (unlike GME). I bought in because meme hype and because I know they have some enterprise software products aside from the dead phones, and I seem to have bought in at its very top, yay. But I don't care enough to try to figure out what the P/E or any other measure of value is, because Google just has a dash there when I search BB.

YttriumNitrate

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Re: GME deathwatch - how to profit?
« Reply #565 on: January 25, 2022, 10:01:03 AM »
Is AMC still a meme stock? I haven't been paying attention. At what point do GME, AMC, and BB cease to be meme stocks?
AMC's market cap is still over 10X its 2019 market cap. So, yes: still a meme stock. Not sure where I would put the cutoff (3x, 5x, etc.) but in my opinion it's still well into meme territory.
https://companiesmarketcap.com/amc-entertainment/marketcap/

secondcor521

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Re: GME deathwatch - how to profit?
« Reply #566 on: January 25, 2022, 10:01:41 AM »
But I don't care enough to try to figure out what the P/E or any other measure of value is, because Google just has a dash there when I search BB.

BB's P/E ratio is not listed because it has negative earnings.  Negative 86 cents per share on a TTM basis according to the Yahoo Finance statistics page, which is over 10% of the current stock price.

Also negative YOY revenue growth for the quarter, negative ROA, negative ROE, negative margins.

Wowzers.

BigMoneyJim

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Re: GME deathwatch - how to profit?
« Reply #567 on: January 25, 2022, 10:27:19 AM »
AMC's market cap is still over 10X its 2019 market cap.

Wait, what? I have a severe misunderstanding of something here. If market cap is the outstanding value of shares, how is market cap around 8x or more its 2019 value while the price per share is more like 3x?

Or more specifically, on April 20, 2019, market cap per that chart was $1.57B. On Jan 24 2022 it's $9.22B, a 487% rise in market capitalization. The price for AMC on April 18, 2019 was $16.05. On Jan 24, 2022 it closed at $16.64, a 3.68% rise in price.

The 2019 dates don't line up perfectly, but I promise neither rose or fell significantly in that time frame to throw the point off here.

A quick Google search suggests that AMC did not split in that time frame. Did it issue tons of new shares?

(My reflex objection was to be that market cap is not a value indicator, but for so many reasons I don't really want to start a discussion on value.)

BB's P/E ratio is not listed because it has negative earnings.  Negative 86 cents per share on a TTM basis according to the Yahoo Finance statistics page, which is over 10% of the current stock price.

Also negative YOY revenue growth for the quarter, negative ROA, negative ROE, negative margins.

AMC's P/E was also a dash, so maybe they have negative earnings, too...probably another good reason to not try to argue value when talking about meme stocks.

YttriumNitrate

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Re: GME deathwatch - how to profit?
« Reply #568 on: January 25, 2022, 10:37:30 AM »
A quick Google search suggests that AMC did not split in that time frame. Did it issue tons of new shares?
Yep.

Quote
AMC Entertainment Holdings shares outstanding for the quarter ending September 30, 2021 were 0.513B, a 376.65% increase year-over-year.
AMC Entertainment Holdings 2020 shares outstanding were 0.117B, a 12.89% increase from 2019.
AMC Entertainment Holdings 2019 shares outstanding were 0.104B, a 20.19% decline from 2018.
https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/AMC/amc-entertainment-holdings/shares-outstanding

DaTrill

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Re: GME deathwatch - how to profit?
« Reply #569 on: January 25, 2022, 11:56:47 AM »
Shares can be created due to options issued, vested, all kinds of other reasons, so comparing market cap over time is treacherous for any comparison. 

BigMoneyJim

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Re: GME deathwatch - how to profit?
« Reply #570 on: January 25, 2022, 01:22:15 PM »
Wow, that is nuts. Outstanding shares of AMC stock increased a few multiples. BB and even GME didn't seem to go that kind of crazy with outstanding share counts. They seemed to jump around maybe by 20% in the past year or two.

ChpBstrd

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Re: GME deathwatch - how to profit?
« Reply #571 on: January 26, 2022, 11:10:45 AM »
Is AMC still a meme stock? I haven't been paying attention. At what point do GME, AMC, and BB cease to be meme stocks?

This isn't a perfect proxy for "meme stocks" but Google searches are way down:
https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?q=amc&geo=US

BigMoneyJim

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Re: GME deathwatch - how to profit?
« Reply #572 on: January 26, 2022, 02:42:11 PM »
That's actually a decent measure as, to me, meme stocks are driven largely by the conversation around it.

At first I thought AMC still seemed very high, but if you go back before the pandemic it seems to be back to around where it was pre-pandemic, so I guess people are searching for it actually looking for movie info and not investment info.

Still, with new shares it still seems quite inflated.

It is interesting to compare the GME, AMC, and BB surges.

clifp

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Re: GME deathwatch - how to profit?
« Reply #573 on: January 26, 2022, 03:12:35 PM »
Schwab wouldn't let me do anything with GME.

But they would let me write naked in the money calls on AMC

So I wrote Dec calls at $20, and Jan 35, in the summer. I bought the Dec calls back in middle Dec at a nice profit, and the Jan 35 expired farout of the money. I was hoping the stock would rally into the 30s, because I was going to write some April calls.  But now that stock is down to $16, I think it is harder to make money. It is basically a $3-5 dollar stock, but I think there will be support among the reddit crowd once it breaks $10.

« Last Edit: January 26, 2022, 03:26:48 PM by clifp »

bacchi

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Re: GME deathwatch - how to profit?
« Reply #574 on: January 26, 2022, 03:23:37 PM »
Schwab wouldn't let me do anything with GME.

But they would let me write naked in the money calls.

So I wrote Dec calls at $20, and Jan 35, in the summer. I bought the Dec calls back in middle Dec at a nice profit, and the Jan 35 expired farout of the money. I was hoping the stock would rally into the 30s, because I was going to write some April calls.  But now that stock is down to $16, I think it is harder to make money. It is basically a $3-5 dollar stock, but I think there will be support among the reddit crowd once it breaks $10.

AMC?

I wrote some Mar GME $300 calls this week.

clifp

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Re: GME deathwatch - how to profit?
« Reply #575 on: January 26, 2022, 03:28:04 PM »
Yes, my calls were on AMC.

I must have forget to to save my edit, sorry for the confusion.

Who is your broker.

bacchi

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Re: GME deathwatch - how to profit?
« Reply #576 on: January 26, 2022, 03:36:37 PM »
Yes, my calls were on AMC.

I must have forget to to save my edit, sorry for the confusion.

Who is your broker.

Interactive Brokers

It requires paying attention in case they increase the margin at a moment's notice.

BigMoneyJim

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Re: GME deathwatch - how to profit?
« Reply #577 on: January 27, 2022, 10:25:56 AM »
Interactive Brokers

It requires paying attention in case they increase the margin at a moment's notice.

So it's an apt name, then!

ChpBstrd

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Re: GME deathwatch - how to profit?
« Reply #578 on: January 27, 2022, 11:26:18 AM »
Interactive Brokers

It requires paying attention in case they increase the margin at a moment's notice.

So it's an apt name, then!

Really that's any broker though. There's no rule against maintenance margin whiplash.

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: GME deathwatch - how to profit?
« Reply #579 on: January 27, 2022, 12:00:04 PM »
I wrote some Mar GME $300 calls this week.

Interactive Brokers

It requires paying attention in case they increase the margin at a moment's notice.
I lost money selling GME calls last year when Feb volatility spiked.  From that experience I have 2 pieces of advice for someone doing the same:
(1) limit your position sizes.  It's not free money if WSB fans return.
(2) place "stop loss" orders to protect yourself and DO NOT CANCEL them like I did... to buy more.

Financial.Velociraptor

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Re: GME deathwatch - how to profit?
« Reply #580 on: March 06, 2022, 12:24:15 PM »
I'm finally in as a (modified) short.  On 22FEB22, with GME trading around 119, I sold the 19JAN24 150 call (naked) and bought the 19JAN24 115 put. I took a net debit of 2.75 per share and bought two spreads.  I have $550 at risk below 150 underlying (I'm bold not crazy).  I take profits at all prices below 112.25 at expiry.  Current price has me 68 cents per share in the green.  If expiry had been Friday, I would have made 126 dollars.  I'll be starting a space cowboy rocket company to compete with Elon and Jeff any day now...


MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: GME deathwatch - how to profit?
« Reply #581 on: March 06, 2022, 04:52:16 PM »
I'm finally in as a (modified) short.  On 22FEB22, with GME trading around 119, I sold the 19JAN24 150 call (naked) and bought the 19JAN24 115 put. I took a net debit of 2.75 per share and bought two spreads.
After the last Dec 8 earnings report, GME stock fell.  Given the large gap between fundamentals and stock price, I would guess analysts will do the same thing at the next earnings call.  That happens in just over 2 weeks, on March 25.

ChpBstrd

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Re: GME deathwatch - how to profit?
« Reply #582 on: March 06, 2022, 08:06:59 PM »
GME is such a meme retread at this point and yet it is still vastly overpriced. It seems like bear spreads could be used to generate a steady series of wins, but I donít recommend unlimited-loss-potential positions like @Financial.Velociraptor got into. Logic only gets you so far with GME.

ChpBstrd

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Re: GME deathwatch - how to profit?
« Reply #583 on: March 08, 2022, 02:26:55 PM »
Next question: Will higher interest rates kill meme stonks?

When I think about the meme stock phenomenon, I imagine desperate millennials and gen Z'ers priced out of homes, stuck with student loan debt for irrelevant degrees, earning McWages working for "boomers", and facing an investment environment where the indices are loaded with large cap tech stocks at insane valuations and low interest rates on bonds.

Financial desperation plus the urgency of getting out of their unhappy situations led them to reject the approach of MMM and accept a belief that gambling was the only way anyone could get out of the working class. Living in the parents' basement for 15 years until FIRE just doesn't appeal. In their minds, the people taking the MMM approach are taking a much bigger gamble by working so long and betting long term, running their own clock out either way. The plan of gambling a year's savings at a time until hitting it big seems safer in their minds, because they've lived through two decades of crises and watched buy-and-holders get wiped out each time (certain personalities don't pay attention to the larger trends or think of strategies as something done for decades at a time).

This time next year, we could have a fed funds rate of 1.5% or 2%, inflation at 5-7%, and expectations of more inflation and rate hikes ahead.

Stocks might have much better fundamentals due to earnings growth and lower PE ratios. Thus, on a purely technical basis, buying and holding stocks and bonds will look more attractive, relative to gambling. Additionally, we'll have much better historical data about the poor performance of meme stock portfolios. By this logic, fewer people will be chasing GME or AMC in desperate hope that last year's internet trend will come back, because it will finally make more sense in their minds to B&H index funds. There are already people on WSB cracking jokes about how doing the exact opposite of WSB would yield one a nice return. Maybe the moment is passing?

On an emotional basis though, the volatile events of early 2022 may convince many in the WSB crowd that the indices are more risky than ever, just like the volatile events of 2020 did. The WSB crowd may become even more convinced that their best opportunity lies in lucky options trades or stock picks. Yet, rising rates will necessarily change things. Stocks with most of their hypothetical cash flows in the distant future, like Tesla or Peloton, may go out of favor, and maybe dividend stocks like oil companies or innovative blue chips such as legacy automakers with electric models will take their place. This will seem like a new way to gamble, and so unlike the ways people lost all their money in 2021-22. Maybe we'll see more of the old rationale: "I'll sell puts on this high yielding stock and double down my put premiums until I'm assigned, and if I can do this for X rounds before assignment then the dividends will cover my retirement".

What do you think? Were meme stocks an artifact of high-valuation, low interest rate times or are they a reaction to anxieties that will be more acute now than ever before? Will meme stocks pivot from nearly defunct retailers and tech unicorns to optioning more stable companies?

BigMoneyJim

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Re: GME deathwatch - how to profit?
« Reply #584 on: March 08, 2022, 02:55:59 PM »
I think both meme stocks and crypto are products of extra money looking for a place to be spent. In both cases, the only reason they performed as investments were because more people buying in on hope alone.

I kind of expect it to all come crashing down at once, over the course of a few weeks or months. As more people need to cash out to cover other wants or needs, fewer people are buying in, and prices start to fall, then I think the masses start to get conservative and start pulling out which just devastates all the speculative investing. Starting when? I have no idea.

ChpBstrd

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Re: GME deathwatch - how to profit?
« Reply #585 on: March 08, 2022, 03:02:05 PM »
Just seems like there's a helluva lot of money to be made in bear spreads on soon-to-be-bankrupt meme stonks as interest rate hikes and inflation fears tank the broader market. That narrative is essentially set for the next few months, IMO.

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: GME deathwatch - how to profit?
« Reply #586 on: March 09, 2022, 04:24:06 PM »
Just seems like there's a helluva lot of money to be made in bear spreads on soon-to-be-bankrupt meme stonks as interest rate hikes and inflation fears tank the broader market. That narrative is essentially set for the next few months, IMO.
Isn't bankruptcy an extreme view?  Except for "soon-to-be-bankrupt", I would agree with your overall point.  The subject of this thread, GameStop, is sitting on $1.4 billion in cash, and debt of less than half that amount.
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GME/key-statistics?p=GME

BigMoneyJim

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Re: GME deathwatch - how to profit?
« Reply #587 on: March 10, 2022, 12:11:04 PM »
$1.4b in cash, but $9b in market cap and negative earnings. Not sure bankruptcy is the end game, but a lot of investor unhappiness in the future short of any secret short squeezes or magic reinvention moon launches.

I'm not going to bet on decline, though. I'm just distantly observing.

ChpBstrd

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Re: GME deathwatch - how to profit?
« Reply #588 on: March 11, 2022, 08:28:55 AM »
Yes, bankruptcy is a strong term for companies which were able to use the short squeeze of 2021 to extract several years of coverage for operating losses from investors. That doesn't mean their business models are functional. Reselling antique physical-format games or running old-fashioned movie theaters is never going to justify these valuations, and I didn't see any compelling new products or strategic directions arising out of the 2021 jubilee. More likely, the executives of these companies will spend their careers entrenching each other and winding down their war chests, or maybe making some acquisitions, which are known to destroy value. This direction is less likely to result in them losing their jobs than doing something radical.

In the bigger picture, I've become more interested in still-overpriced meme stocks due to the deterioration of the macro environment:

*7.9% inflation!
*0.25% federal funds rate AFTER next week's meeting!
*an oil shock
*a price of wheat shock
*the Fed being too slow to stop stimulus in 2021, letting inflation expectations get established
*heightened risks of a financial crisis due to bank commodity or Russian market exposures

Rates will have to go way up in the next 2 years to catch inflation, which puts holders of stocks or bonds in a position of fighting the fed. Earnings growth would have to be spectacular to maintain NPV amid a 3-6% increase in the discount rate. Highly leveraged companies are going to have to spend down earnings and deleverage in order to optimize their capital structure for a higher-rate environment, or else risk becoming zombie shells. Unemployment and consumer spending are currently the strongest areas of the economy, but for how long?

Yes, the stock market always climbs a wall of worry, but this year seems like an exceptionally difficult time to make money. The inflation / rising rates dynamic has the potential to drop the S&P from it's current PE ratio of 25.5 (Schiller PE >34!) back to its mean of around 16. And for those predicting a repeat of the 1970's, the PE dropped below 10 during those times and bonds were no safe refuge! "Short-duration stocks" like dividend stocks, REITs, and MLPs only seem attractive until you consider the possibility of treasuries exceeding their yields within the next 2 years.

I plan to hedge my long index positions and also maintain some limited-risk net short exposure in 2022. The hedging part is easy, but finding shitty companies to write bear spreads on is tougher. AMC and GME may have dead business models, but their leverage ratio is now low (negative in the case of AMC!) so there might be better candidates. Additionally, short interest in both companies is back above 20%, so another squeeze could occur soon. I'll be watching them for the next squeeze while I search for highly leveraged companies with weak growth, weak pricing power, and inflated prices.

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Re: GME deathwatch - how to profit?
« Reply #589 on: March 14, 2022, 07:21:36 PM »

arebelspy

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Re: GME deathwatch - how to profit?
« Reply #590 on: March 15, 2022, 10:02:55 AM »


Down 15.7% today on this news.

He left in March 2021, a year ago.

I don't think this recent interview with him was why the price tanked.

Motley Fool puts it down to a bearish analyst opinion that was released: https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/03/14/why-gamestop-stock-cratered-by-16-today/
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BigMoneyJim

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Re: GME deathwatch - how to profit?
« Reply #591 on: March 15, 2022, 10:22:39 AM »
He left in March 2021, a year ago.

Huh, weird. I checked the date on the article, and there were quite a few other articles in the news list for yesterday. I didn't catch that the leaving was old but the reason was recent. That explains why nobody was talking about it on the subreddits.

Speaking of which, yeah a bunch of posters claimed to have been opportunistically buying the dip and HODLing with their diamond hands. Still.

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Re: GME deathwatch - how to profit?
« Reply #592 on: March 17, 2022, 04:30:26 PM »

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Re: GME deathwatch - how to profit?
« Reply #593 on: March 22, 2022, 11:00:28 AM »
and GME is back from the dead, once again!  Just hit 115, up 23% (and counting) for the day.  If options trading on meme stocks isn't gambling, I don't know what is.

Even before I had chance to send, it hit 116...

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Re: GME deathwatch - how to profit?
« Reply #594 on: March 26, 2022, 05:33:39 AM »
"GameStop stock had two material insider purchases last week.
The larger one was by GameStop (ticker: GME) Chairman Ryan Cohen, who paid $10.2 million for 100,000 shares on March 22."
https://www.barrons.com/articles/gamestop-stock-buy-51648147173

On March 22, GME stock soared about +29%, and then +8%/day for the following two days.  The Chairman of GameStop's board bought 0.1% of it's market cap, so the stock soared +50%.

GameStop is a retail store and promises.  I view the promises as hype, and would point to Mar 22-25.  Others view these promises as the future - but the company refuses to lay out it's plans for that future.  Are vague mentions of NFTs enough?

A number of NFT marketplaces exist and have a long lead over GameStop, who started hiring less than 6 months ago.  Marketplaces favor the early big company (Amazon, eBay), not the one who hasn't begun.

I'd like to avoid doing anything with GME stock in my brokerage accounts, but posting here is free.  Instead of shorting 1 share of GME, I'll post in here when I think it's a good time to sell short (or I might forget entirely, which would be even better).

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Re: GME deathwatch - how to profit?
« Reply #595 on: March 26, 2022, 02:14:27 PM »
I think I timed my GME game perfectly. I bought when I thought it was worth a flier on a short-term short squeeze meme to the tune of a couple of shares, and then i sold when I got tired of watching to see if the short was going to happen, and I only lost...hell I forget, $200? $400? Something like that. And I'll never transact in GME again.

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Re: GME deathwatch - how to profit?
« Reply #596 on: March 29, 2022, 10:11:13 AM »
My timing was really bad.  Put 2,530 of more capital in trade to roll my now in the money 150 short call up to 200.   

arebelspy

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Re: GME deathwatch - how to profit?
« Reply #597 on: March 29, 2022, 10:13:11 AM »
My timing was really bad.  Put 2,530 of more capital in trade to roll my now in the money 150 short call up to 200.
Seems like a bad bet to me. But idk the short term, it can get wild either direction.

Disclaimer: Long GME.
I am a former teacher who accumulated a bunch of real estate, retired at 29, spent some time traveling the world full time and am now settled with three kids.
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I (rarely) blog at AdventuringAlong.com. Check out the Now page to see what I'm up to currently.

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: GME deathwatch - how to profit?
« Reply #598 on: March 29, 2022, 01:15:34 PM »
I'm doing my "short via post" of GME at 187.12 / share.  I haven't done anything in my brokerage accounts, I'm just pretending to short 1 share of GME here, in this thread:
Consider me to suddenly have $187.12 cash and -1 GME share.

It's a bit better if you keep me honest by quoting me - then I could in theory edit this post later, but not the quoted post by someone else.

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Re: GME deathwatch - how to profit?
« Reply #599 on: March 29, 2022, 03:51:56 PM »
I'm doing my "short via post" of GME at 187.12 / share.  I haven't done anything in my brokerage accounts, I'm just pretending to short 1 share of GME here, in this thread:
Consider me to suddenly have $187.12 cash and -1 GME share.

It's a bit better if you keep me honest by quoting me - then I could in theory edit this post later, but not the quoted post by someone else.

I'll take the $187.12 and "buy via post" a fractional share of VTI at it's value as of the same date and time as the above post.  I now "own" $231.32 / $187.12 = 1.236 shares of VTI.

I'll reinvest dividends into more VTI; I'm not sure what margin rate @MustacheAndaHalf is "paying".