Author Topic: Getting scared of stock market  (Read 9334 times)

DarthCreationist

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Re: Getting scared of stock market
« Reply #50 on: August 18, 2017, 05:26:39 AM »
We should not be afraid of a crash. We want to buy stocks, we prefer lower prices. It's common sense.

If we wanted to sell stocks, things would be the other way round. But we don't. In fact, we should never stop buying, even in retirement.
« Last Edit: August 18, 2017, 06:43:49 AM by DarthCreationist »
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Aggie1999

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Re: Getting scared of stock market
« Reply #51 on: August 18, 2017, 08:32:16 AM »
We should not be afraid of a crash. We want to buy stocks, we prefer lower prices. It's common sense.

If we wanted to sell stocks, things would be the other way round. But we don't. In fact, we should never stop buying, even in retirement.

I see this sentiment posted often around here. It confuses me though. This forum is all about getting investments to a point where one can live off the gains. If they are truly doing that how are these people going to continue to buy in retirement?

MDM

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Re: Getting scared of stock market
« Reply #52 on: August 18, 2017, 09:13:26 AM »
We should not be afraid of a crash. We want to buy stocks, we prefer lower prices. It's common sense.

If we wanted to sell stocks, things would be the other way round. But we don't. In fact, we should never stop buying, even in retirement.

I see this sentiment posted often around here. It confuses me though. This forum is all about getting investments to a point where one can live off the gains. If they are truly doing that how are these people going to continue to buy in retirement?
It should confuse you because, taken literally, it is not correct.

Presumably there is an expectation that prices will recover.  For those just starting retirement, however, being forced to sell in a severely depressed market is not good.  E.g., see Understanding Sequence Of Return Risk & Safe Withdrawal Rates.  As that article indicates, a year or two of negative returns is not the end of the world (or one's retirement dreams), but it's not something one would prefer.

GuitarStv

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Re: Getting scared of stock market
« Reply #53 on: August 18, 2017, 10:14:44 AM »
Typically an asset allocation isn't 100% stocks.  This gives you the freedom to sell either the stocks or the bonds when you need to withdraw money.  This means that when the stocks tank you can live off the bonds and wait out the recovery.  When the stocks do great you can replenish your bonds.

sol

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Re: Getting scared of stock market
« Reply #54 on: August 18, 2017, 10:44:53 AM »
Typically an asset allocation isn't 100% stocks.  This gives you the freedom to sell either the stocks or the bonds when you need to withdraw money.  This means that when the stocks tank you can live off the bonds and wait out the recovery.  When the stocks do great you can replenish your bonds.

The down side of this proposed strategy, of course, is that stocks can continue to go down long after you've depleted all of your bonds.  At that point you'd be forced to sell stocks at an even greater loss, and you would have been better off selling the stocks early in the downturn, and then selling the bonds later.  Selling bonds when the stock market tanks is the opposite of sound portfolio management.  That's rebalancing in reverse.

Any strategy that recommends selling stocks vs bonds at particular points in the business cycle is, by definition, market timing of some sort.

A more MMM-friendly strategy is to maintain your asset allocation all through the cycle.  When stocks tank, your losses will be mitigated by your bond holdings and you'll automatically be buying more stocks as you rebalance.  When stocks explode, you'll still get the benefit of the extra stocks you bought while they were down, but your rebalancing will put your new money more into bonds to protect you against the next downturn. 

Holding your asset allocation constant all through economic cycles, as you continue to DCA into the market while working, is the safest and most conservative play available, and it also happens to be the easiest to execute.  You don't need to forecast the market.  You don't need to get the timing or the severity of the business cycle right.  Just keep investing while keeping your chosen percentages constant, and focus on earning more and saving more instead of trying to game the system.  You've already found the winningest strategy by doing as little as possible, so why risk anything else?

ChpBstrd

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Re: Getting scared of stock market
« Reply #55 on: August 18, 2017, 11:29:50 AM »
Typically an asset allocation isn't 100% stocks.  This gives you the freedom to sell either the stocks or the bonds when you need to withdraw money.  This means that when the stocks tank you can live off the bonds and wait out the recovery.  When the stocks do great you can replenish your bonds.

The down side of this proposed strategy, of course, is that stocks can continue to go down long after you've depleted all of your bonds.  At that point you'd be forced to sell stocks at an even greater loss, and you would have been better off selling the stocks early in the downturn, and then selling the bonds later.  Selling bonds when the stock market tanks is the opposite of sound portfolio management.  That's rebalancing in reverse.

Any strategy that recommends selling stocks vs bonds at particular points in the business cycle is, by definition, market timing of some sort.

A more MMM-friendly strategy is to maintain your asset allocation all through the cycle.  When stocks tank, your losses will be mitigated by your bond holdings and you'll automatically be buying more stocks as you rebalance.  When stocks explode, you'll still get the benefit of the extra stocks you bought while they were down, but your rebalancing will put your new money more into bonds to protect you against the next downturn. 

Holding your asset allocation constant all through economic cycles, as you continue to DCA into the market while working, is the safest and most conservative play available, and it also happens to be the easiest to execute.  You don't need to forecast the market.  You don't need to get the timing or the severity of the business cycle right.  Just keep investing while keeping your chosen percentages constant, and focus on earning more and saving more instead of trying to game the system.  You've already found the winningest strategy by doing as little as possible, so why risk anything else?
Is it market timing to load up on, say, oats when they go on sale?

MDM

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Re: Getting scared of stock market
« Reply #56 on: August 18, 2017, 11:34:47 AM »
Typically an asset allocation isn't 100% stocks.  This gives you the freedom to sell either the stocks or the bonds when you need to withdraw money.  This means that when the stocks tank you can live off the bonds and wait out the recovery.  When the stocks do great you can replenish your bonds.
If one maintains a given asset allocation, not only would one need to sell bonds for living expenses but also sell more bonds to buy stocks.

Easy to use hindsight and say "no problem", especially for short V-shaped drops and recoveries.  Also relatively easy when one has wage income at the time, as sol notes.

But when stocks are dropping and there's no income other than selling investments - that's a different story.

Selling bonds when the stock market tanks is the opposite of sound portfolio management.  That's rebalancing in reverse.
...
A more MMM-friendly strategy is to maintain your asset allocation all through the cycle.  When stocks tank, your losses will be mitigated by your bond holdings and you'll automatically be buying more stocks as you rebalance.
In order to maintain one's asset allocation (when there is no wage income), one would have to sell bonds when the stock market tanks.

Based on history it would be the right thing to do.  But it would not likely be fun while doing so.

GuitarStv

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Re: Getting scared of stock market
« Reply #57 on: August 18, 2017, 11:36:38 AM »
Typically an asset allocation isn't 100% stocks.  This gives you the freedom to sell either the stocks or the bonds when you need to withdraw money.  This means that when the stocks tank you can live off the bonds and wait out the recovery.  When the stocks do great you can replenish your bonds.

The down side of this proposed strategy, of course, is that stocks can continue to go down long after you've depleted all of your bonds.  At that point you'd be forced to sell stocks at an even greater loss, and you would have been better off selling the stocks early in the downturn, and then selling the bonds later.  Selling bonds when the stock market tanks is the opposite of sound portfolio management.  That's rebalancing in reverse.

Any strategy that recommends selling stocks vs bonds at particular points in the business cycle is, by definition, market timing of some sort.

A more MMM-friendly strategy is to maintain your asset allocation all through the cycle.  When stocks tank, your losses will be mitigated by your bond holdings and you'll automatically be buying more stocks as you rebalance.  When stocks explode, you'll still get the benefit of the extra stocks you bought while they were down, but your rebalancing will put your new money more into bonds to protect you against the next downturn. 

Holding your asset allocation constant all through economic cycles, as you continue to DCA into the market while working, is the safest and most conservative play available, and it also happens to be the easiest to execute.  You don't need to forecast the market.  You don't need to get the timing or the severity of the business cycle right.  Just keep investing while keeping your chosen percentages constant, and focus on earning more and saving more instead of trying to game the system.  You've already found the winningest strategy by doing as little as possible, so why risk anything else?

That's what I was (apparently poorly) describing.  If your stocks have tanked, then you would take money out of your bonds when you need to take money out, and vice versa.  You determine if something is tanking by looking at your asset allocation to see if it's out of whack or not.  When you sell the thing that's doing well you're (slightly) re-balancing.





Is it market timing to load up on, say, oats when they go on sale?

Has the oat market produced reliable returns over any given 20 year period?  :D

DarthCreationist

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Re: Getting scared of stock market
« Reply #58 on: August 18, 2017, 11:48:15 AM »
We should not be afraid of a crash. We want to buy stocks, we prefer lower prices. It's common sense.

If we wanted to sell stocks, things would be the other way round. But we don't. In fact, we should never stop buying, even in retirement.

I see this sentiment posted often around here. It confuses me though. This forum is all about getting investments to a point where one can live off the gains. If they are truly doing that how are these people going to continue to buy in retirement?
Sure, you should be able to live off your investments. But do you plan to cut absolutely close, so that in your normal expected case, you use 100% of your returns for your living cost?

I would argue you should have some safety margin, and whenever you don't need it, you invest it also and increase your standard of living.
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JAYSLOL

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Re: Getting scared of stock market
« Reply #59 on: August 18, 2017, 12:01:25 PM »

Is it market timing to load up on, say, oats when they go on sale?

Yes, it's supermarket timing :)


Eric

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Re: Getting scared of stock market
« Reply #60 on: August 18, 2017, 12:10:32 PM »
We should not be afraid of a crash. We want to buy stocks, we prefer lower prices. It's common sense.

If we wanted to sell stocks, things would be the other way round. But we don't. In fact, we should never stop buying, even in retirement.

I see this sentiment posted often around here. It confuses me though. This forum is all about getting investments to a point where one can live off the gains. If they are truly doing that how are these people going to continue to buy in retirement?
Sure, you should be able to live off your investments. But do you plan to cut absolutely close, so that in your normal expected case, you use 100% of your returns for your living cost?

I would argue you should have some safety margin, and whenever you don't need it, you invest it also and increase your standard of living.

But how are you going to continue to buy in retirement?  It makes no sense, unless your version of retirement involves continuing to work.

I will sure as shit not be buying any stocks in retirement.  The WHOLE POINT of buying them now is so that I can sell them and not work.
"Compound interest is the most powerful force in the universe."  -- Einstein

Aggie1999

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Re: Getting scared of stock market
« Reply #61 on: August 18, 2017, 12:19:50 PM »
We should not be afraid of a crash. We want to buy stocks, we prefer lower prices. It's common sense.

If we wanted to sell stocks, things would be the other way round. But we don't. In fact, we should never stop buying, even in retirement.

I see this sentiment posted often around here. It confuses me though. This forum is all about getting investments to a point where one can live off the gains. If they are truly doing that how are these people going to continue to buy in retirement?
Sure, you should be able to live off your investments. But do you plan to cut absolutely close, so that in your normal expected case, you use 100% of your returns for your living cost?

I would argue you should have some safety margin, and whenever you don't need it, you invest it also and increase your standard of living.

I agree on the safety margin but it you are living off the ~2% dividends of the typical 3 fund portfolio there is no additional money to buy more shares. I guess over time as the stock price increases the dividends increase, correct? That would give extra money to buy investments assuming one is sticking to the fixed withdraw rate scheme.

VoteCthulu

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Re: Getting scared of stock market
« Reply #62 on: August 18, 2017, 01:52:01 PM »
We should not be afraid of a crash. We want to buy stocks, we prefer lower prices. It's common sense.

If we wanted to sell stocks, things would be the other way round. But we don't. In fact, we should never stop buying, even in retirement.

I see this sentiment posted often around here. It confuses me though. This forum is all about getting investments to a point where one can live off the gains. If they are truly doing that how are these people going to continue to buy in retirement?
Sure, you should be able to live off your investments. But do you plan to cut absolutely close, so that in your normal expected case, you use 100% of your returns for your living cost?

I would argue you should have some safety margin, and whenever you don't need it, you invest it also and increase your standard of living.

But how are you going to continue to buy in retirement?  It makes no sense, unless your version of retirement involves continuing to work.

I will sure as shit not be buying any stocks in retirement.  The WHOLE POINT of buying them now is so that I can sell them and not work.
Because part of the 4% rule includes getting 6+% actual returns, and reinvesting the part you don't spend in order to keep up with inflation.

Also, budgets should include repairs and maintenance that occur less than annually, which means that money continues to get reinvested until needed.

Eric

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Re: Getting scared of stock market
« Reply #63 on: August 18, 2017, 01:57:11 PM »
We should not be afraid of a crash. We want to buy stocks, we prefer lower prices. It's common sense.

If we wanted to sell stocks, things would be the other way round. But we don't. In fact, we should never stop buying, even in retirement.

I see this sentiment posted often around here. It confuses me though. This forum is all about getting investments to a point where one can live off the gains. If they are truly doing that how are these people going to continue to buy in retirement?
Sure, you should be able to live off your investments. But do you plan to cut absolutely close, so that in your normal expected case, you use 100% of your returns for your living cost?

I would argue you should have some safety margin, and whenever you don't need it, you invest it also and increase your standard of living.

But how are you going to continue to buy in retirement?  It makes no sense, unless your version of retirement involves continuing to work.

I will sure as shit not be buying any stocks in retirement.  The WHOLE POINT of buying them now is so that I can sell them and not work.
Because part of the 4% rule includes getting 6+% actual returns, and reinvesting the part you don't spend in order to keep up with inflation.

Also, budgets should include repairs and maintenance that occur less than annually, which means that money continues to get reinvested until needed.

Yeah, that's not how it works.  There's nothing to "reinvest".  Even if your portfolio increases 30% and you withdrawal only 2%, you're still not buying more stocks.  It's the ones that you already own that appreciated.
"Compound interest is the most powerful force in the universe."  -- Einstein

solon

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Re: Getting scared of stock market
« Reply #64 on: August 18, 2017, 01:59:35 PM »
We should not be afraid of a crash. We want to buy stocks, we prefer lower prices. It's common sense.

If we wanted to sell stocks, things would be the other way round. But we don't. In fact, we should never stop buying, even in retirement.

I see this sentiment posted often around here. It confuses me though. This forum is all about getting investments to a point where one can live off the gains. If they are truly doing that how are these people going to continue to buy in retirement?
Sure, you should be able to live off your investments. But do you plan to cut absolutely close, so that in your normal expected case, you use 100% of your returns for your living cost?

I would argue you should have some safety margin, and whenever you don't need it, you invest it also and increase your standard of living.

But how are you going to continue to buy in retirement?  It makes no sense, unless your version of retirement involves continuing to work.

I will sure as shit not be buying any stocks in retirement.  The WHOLE POINT of buying them now is so that I can sell them and not work.
Because part of the 4% rule includes getting 6+% actual returns, and reinvesting the part you don't spend in order to keep up with inflation.

Also, budgets should include repairs and maintenance that occur less than annually, which means that money continues to get reinvested until needed.

Yeah, that's not how it works.  There's nothing to "reinvest".  Even if your portfolio increases 30% and you withdrawal only 2%, you're still not buying more stocks.  It's the ones that you already own that appreciated.

If your dividends are more than your living expenses, then you could be buying more.

Eric

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Re: Getting scared of stock market
« Reply #65 on: August 18, 2017, 02:02:45 PM »
If your dividends are more than your living expenses, then you could be buying more.

Sure, but then the original suggestion would imply that you shouldn't retire without a less than 2% WR, which itself is equally ludicrous.
"Compound interest is the most powerful force in the universe."  -- Einstein

martyconlonontherun

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Re: Getting scared of stock market
« Reply #66 on: August 18, 2017, 02:52:39 PM »
Dave Ramnsey one time said something along the lines that if you had invested right before the worst crashes in the last 40 years (aka you only put in money at the worst possible time) you still would've had a great return. Anyone here of a study or analysis like this? I tried searching on the web and couldn't verify it.

dandarc

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Re: Getting scared of stock market
« Reply #67 on: August 18, 2017, 03:13:10 PM »
Dave Ramnsey one time said something along the lines that if you had invested right before the worst crashes in the last 40 years (aka you only put in money at the worst possible time) you still would've had a great return. Anyone here of a study or analysis like this? I tried searching on the web and couldn't verify it.
http://awealthofcommonsense.com/2014/02/worlds-worst-market-timer/
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martyconlonontherun

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Re: Getting scared of stock market
« Reply #68 on: August 18, 2017, 05:45:30 PM »
Dave Ramnsey one time said something along the lines that if you had invested right before the worst crashes in the last 40 years (aka you only put in money at the worst possible time) you still would've had a great return. Anyone here of a study or analysis like this? I tried searching on the web and couldn't verify it.
http://awealthofcommonsense.com/2014/02/worlds-worst-market-timer/

Thanks!!! Been looking online for it since I hear the podcast a year ago!

Indexer

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Re: Getting scared of stock market
« Reply #69 on: August 18, 2017, 08:55:26 PM »
@Chelseygirl:

You have a lot of opinions here, most of them saying don't sell. I agree with that. It is the logical answer.

The emotional answer: have a portfolio you are comfortable holding onto no matter what is happening. The little blip in the markets caused by NK shouldn't worry you. If that worries you then how will you feel in a time like early March 2009 when the markets have been dropping for nearly two years, they are down over 50%, and the news media has been in doom and gloom mode for that whole time? If you aren't comfortable with your 75/25 right now, how will you feel then?

No, you shouldn't sell because of what is happening right now. However, you should have a portfolio going forward that you are comfortable holding onto no matter what happens. Just don't go to conservative. You don't want the fear of short term drops to scare you away from the returns you need to meet your goals.

grettman

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Re: Getting scared of stock market
« Reply #70 on: August 19, 2017, 06:03:57 AM »
If these tiny micro-movements of equity markets scare you, I'd hate to see what your reaction would have been in the 2007/2008 meltdown, where not only did stocks crash, but housing collapsed and mass layoffs were the name of the game. Trifecta!

Spot on. 

OP:  Do this -- if you are tracking your investments in a spreadsheet, change the number so that it shows you are down 30-45 percent.  Stare at that number and then close your eyes and imagine that number is real (I know this is hard to do).....  now think to yourself how you feel.  This is important because this can happen to you.  Everyone has enjoyed a ver nice ride that will eventually come to an end (or maybe not).

lifeminimalized

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Re: Getting scared of stock market
« Reply #71 on: August 20, 2017, 06:40:41 AM »
Here is some perspective.

There have been (2) days the month of August thus far that the S&P 500 has closed the bell <-1% and on each of those days I contributed more than I have all year.

Stay the course, buy the dips. I have 34 years to retirement, so I'm a little younger than you however 20 years is plenty of time.

Kaspian

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Re: Getting scared of stock market
« Reply #72 on: August 22, 2017, 01:48:09 PM »
Dow went down after these threats on Guam.

I am 75/25 in my IRA right now but feel like putting more money into investment grade bonds. Maybe 50/50 at this point. Not sure. I'm a little heavy on stocks for my age, anyway.

Does your Personal Investment Policy, (you know--the one you wrote to formalize the plan), say anything in it about "Guam"?  If not, continue as usual.

This guy.  Don't be this guy.  https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/sat-out-the-trump-rally-advice-on-jumping-back-in/
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DarkandStormy

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Re: Getting scared of stock market
« Reply #73 on: August 22, 2017, 02:43:56 PM »
I have 34 years to retirement

Planned retirement or when society says you can retire?
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DarkandStormy

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Re: Getting scared of stock market
« Reply #74 on: August 22, 2017, 02:52:29 PM »
Also, just because stocks may have always been up in 20-yr periods, but some periods were much better than others.  If we are near the top and you buy in now, how good do you think your returns will be?  Not advocating being completely on the sidelines, but some caution might be warranted.

The worst 20-year return of the S&P 500 is 6.4% annually.
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sol

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Re: Getting scared of stock market
« Reply #75 on: August 22, 2017, 03:43:37 PM »
The worst 20-year return of the S&P 500 is 6.4% annually.

But I thought runewell had shown us all the absolute necessity of the 2% SWR!

It's easy to skew these numbers with bad assumptions.  A surprising number of people with a woeful misunderstanding of the SWR literature like to post doom and gloom scenarios on this forum as if they were retirement experts.  6.4% you say?  They'll counter that by looking only at market returns you're ignoring inflation adjustments, which of course should be modeled as monte carlo runs (even though they don't understand that either) because that generates more worse case scenarios.  And of course everyone needs to pay a 1% management fee.  And you're analysis includes dividends, which (you'll hear argued here) aren't guaranteed money and should be excluded.  Suddenly we've turned 6.4 into 4.5 into 3.5 into 2%. 

And then comes my personal favorite retort, "the future is inherently unknowable so you can never retire."

Chairman

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Re: Getting scared of stock market
« Reply #76 on: August 22, 2017, 09:00:35 PM »
Just because something has happened in the past (even if it has always happened in the past), doesn't mean that it will happen in the future. Just ask Japan, still waiting for its recovery. Too many people think stocks can't go wrong. They can. If it were certain, investing wouldn't entail risk.

GenXbiker

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Re: Getting scared of stock market
« Reply #77 on: August 22, 2017, 09:41:59 PM »

Historical rolling periods returns for the S&P 500 and adjusted for inflation can be gotten here:

https://dqydj.com/sp-500-historical-return-calculator/

Chairman

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Re: Getting scared of stock market
« Reply #78 on: August 23, 2017, 10:08:44 AM »
Good analysis on current valuations here: http://www.etf.com/sections/index-investor-corner/swedroe-wait-youll-likely-miss-out?nopaging=1

A reminder that international diversification is important.

DavidAnnArbor

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Re: Getting scared of stock market
« Reply #79 on: August 24, 2017, 06:23:36 PM »
Just because something has happened in the past (even if it has always happened in the past), doesn't mean that it will happen in the future. Just ask Japan, still waiting for its recovery. Too many people think stocks can't go wrong. They can. If it were certain, investing wouldn't entail risk.

I definitely agree about international diversification to mitigate the Japan style risk.
But how many stock markets ever experienced that Japan style leap and drop and never recovered even after close to 30 years ?

DarkandStormy

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Re: Getting scared of stock market
« Reply #80 on: September 01, 2017, 08:53:09 AM »
Still scared?
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Re: Getting scared of stock market
« Reply #81 on: September 01, 2017, 12:18:01 PM »
If you're scared at SPY of $24.4, you should be terrified at SPY of $24.7

Full Beard

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Re: Getting scared of stock market
« Reply #82 on: September 04, 2017, 04:35:49 PM »

Is it market timing to load up on, say, oats when they go on sale?

Yes, it's supermarket timing :)

Haha, that was a good one.
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martyconlonontherun

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Re: Getting scared of stock market
« Reply #83 on: September 07, 2017, 01:24:43 PM »
Just because something has happened in the past (even if it has always happened in the past), doesn't mean that it will happen in the future. Just ask Japan, still waiting for its recovery. Too many people think stocks can't go wrong. They can. If it were certain, investing wouldn't entail risk.

I definitely agree about international diversification to mitigate the Japan style risk.
But how many stock markets ever experienced that Japan style leap and drop and never recovered even after close to 30 years ?

I'm not scared of the market but I think it is hubris to think it is fail proof. The market as we know, where the average person can buy and sell, isn't that old. The first composite indexes were from 1923, or less than a 100 years ago. There are 20 yo's on this site and are investing for the next 60-70 years. I don't think you can just talk about modern stock markets that don't have a long term history. If you include stock markets from hundreds of years ago, I'm sure there are plenty that never recovered due to war, etc.

acroy

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Re: Getting scared of stock market
« Reply #84 on: September 07, 2017, 01:37:26 PM »

Is it market timing to load up on, say, oats when they go on sale?

Yes, it's supermarket timing :)

Haha, that was a good one.

Actually, interesting factoid: commodities are pretty darn cheap right now.
https://us.spindices.com/indices/commodities/dow-jones-commodity-index

Compared to equities, they are super cheap.
I bought some commodity index recently. Mr Market says it's 'on sale'.
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Slow2FIRE

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Re: Getting scared of stock market
« Reply #85 on: September 07, 2017, 08:49:40 PM »

Actually, interesting factoid: commodities are pretty darn cheap right now.
https://us.spindices.com/indices/commodities/dow-jones-commodity-index

Compared to equities, they are super cheap.
I bought some commodity index recently. Mr Market says it's 'on sale'.

Time to buy farmland and timberland???  :P

JohnSteed

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Re: Getting scared of stock market
« Reply #86 on: September 11, 2017, 02:02:45 PM »
The worst 20-year return of the S&P 500 is 6.4% annually.

But I thought runewell had shown us all the absolute necessity of the 2% SWR!

Quit exaggerating.  At no point did runewell advocate a 2% SWR.  He simply noted that it could go below 4% when starting out retirement with an expensive market that might have less upside than usual.

RWD

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Re: Getting scared of stock market
« Reply #87 on: September 11, 2017, 02:10:55 PM »
The worst 20-year return of the S&P 500 is 6.4% annually.

But I thought runewell had shown us all the absolute necessity of the 2% SWR!

Quit exaggerating.  At no point did runewell advocate a 2% SWR.  He simply noted that it could go below 4% when starting out retirement with an expensive market that might have less upside than usual.

Are you runewell? You seem to be quite confident in your knowledge of his posts despite only being on the forum for less than a month. Your registered date is within 24 hours of runewell's last active time. And you say you are 45 years old, which matches with runewell's profile.

sol

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Re: Getting scared of stock market
« Reply #88 on: September 11, 2017, 05:35:09 PM »
Quit exaggerating.  At no point did runewell advocate a 2% SWR. 

That only appears to be true, because you've scrubbed your post history.  That 4% SWR thread is full of links to runewell's posts that no longer exist, like, for example this one.

If your horizon is instead 40-50 years Now you need a 2.0%-2.5% SWR. 

Mighty-Dollar

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Re: Getting scared of stock market
« Reply #89 on: September 11, 2017, 10:06:06 PM »
Dow went down after these threats on Guam.

I am 75/25 in my IRA right now but feel like putting more money into investment grade bonds. Maybe 50/50 at this point. Not sure. I'm a little heavy on stocks for my age, anyway.
Generally your stock allocation should be about 120 minus your age. With rising interest rates possibly being on the way, having MORE exposure to stocks makes sense if history is any guide. From 1966 onward, 100% stocks was the best allocation ratio. No bonds. That's for both people drawing out 4% and people just letting their money grow and compound.

Mr Mark

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Re: Getting scared of stock market
« Reply #90 on: September 12, 2017, 01:53:36 AM »
The worst 20-year return of the S&P 500 is 6.4% annually.

But I thought runewell had shown us all the absolute necessity of the 2% SWR!

Quit exaggerating.  At no point did runewell advocate a 2% SWR.  He simply noted that it could go below 4% when starting out retirement with an expensive market that might have less upside than usual.

Are you runewell? You seem to be quite confident in your knowledge of his posts despite only being on the forum for less than a month. Your registered date is within 24 hours of runewell's last active time. And you say you are 45 years old, which matches with runewell's profile.

LMAO! Well spotted team.
Mr. Mark