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Learning, Sharing, and Teaching => Investor Alley => Topic started by: innerscorecard on July 07, 2015, 01:08:05 AM

Title: Federal Reserve Paper on Demographics and P/E Multiples
Post by: innerscorecard on July 07, 2015, 01:08:05 AM

http://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/publications/economic-letter/2014/december/baby-boomers-retirement-stocks-aging/

This paper is interesting and tries to address the questions that many on here ask, but treat it as entertainment (that is what it is in the end), not gospel.

Title: Re: Federal Reserve Paper on Demographics and P/E Multiples
Post by: NorCal on July 14, 2015, 11:36:21 AM

That's one of the better articles the SF Fed has published.  I read most of their papers, and that's one I keep coming back to.

In the end, there's not much you can do about it.  But its good to be aware of.

My personal prediction is that the conclusion is right, but the timing is wrong.  Overall valuations, interest rates, and the cost of capital are directly tied to the amount of money chasing returns.  Demographics tells you how much money is chasing returns. 

The timing aspect is what's different from the past.  The larger baby-boomer generation is simply working longer than prior generations.  On average, they are now saving more than they have at any point in their lives, and working longer.  We'll see when that changes.